Category: Personal Finance

If you Want to be Well-off in Life

If you Want to be Well-off in Life

I write this because it should be obvious but is not.? I grew up in a house where my Dad earned an average income from his business, but my Mom took around 10% of the income and invested it half in utilities and half in growth stocks.? As my Mom said to me, “My utilities are my bonds.”

Bright lady; my first teacher in investing.? She beat the market for four decades plus.

But the main thing that she did right was to spend less than my Dad earned.? This is critical.? You can’t build capital unless you set assets aside.? This is the most important of the rules.? You must consume below your means, and invest the surplus wisely.? I remember many ways in which she said “no,” to a variety of expenditures.? We didn’t live below the appearances of our neighbors, but we were one of the last on the block to get a color TV.? Good thing, TV is such a waste of time — and I wasted a lot of time there when I was a kid.

The second main thing that she did right was take moderate risk.? Looking at her portfolio, one might ask, “Why so many utilities?”? Or comment, “A lot of boring GARP-y stocks.”? I contrast her with my paternal grandfather, who retired in 1966-7, and sold his business to his two sons, and then lived off the interest income from CDs, etc.? He took no risk in his retirement, though he took moderate risk as a businessman, and as a pool player.? (Rumor is he was Wisconsin state champ at some point… but I can’t prove that.? I played him a kid, and never won.? My Dad, who learned from him, I beat only once, and lost many times to him.)

An investor in CDs will get what he contracted for, absent default.? The investor who is like my Mom will have a more jagged trail, but will earn more.? Even in the late 70s and early 80s, my Mom did not lose confidence in her strategies, even as Grandpa earned 15%/year on his CDs.? Her time was yet to come.

My Mom would hold stocks for 10 years on average.? So long as you pick companies with a sustainable competitive advantage, you will generally do well over longer periods, should you have the fortitude to not trade frequently.

So, my third point is don’t be an aggressive trader.? Yes, have trading rules, but don’t try to make money in the short run.? Try to make money in the long run.

My fourth point would be “do it yourself” if you can.? (Yes, I know I run money for others.? I will say what I believe even if it costs me business.)? But that means you have to learn a lot, like my mom, or me, or my father-in-law, three people all mostly self-taught, with different investing philosophies.? Good investing is like running a business on the side.? It is not easy.

My fifth point is pay attention to taxes, but don’t let taxes dominate your decisions.? There’s a balance here, and for my clients, I try to generate taxable losses on net, while letting winners run.

My sixth point would be that income in investing is important, but not for the reason you might expect.? Income is important because it motivates reinvestment opportunities, not consumption opportunities.? When you are older this changes a little, but in many cases it is smarter to focus on total return, and consume from capital rather than have every stock try to produce income.? That said stocks that pay dividends tend to do better than those that don’t.? 28 of the 33 stocks in client portfolios (of which I am a client as well) at present pay dividends, and the portfolio as a whole has an above-market dividend.? Reinvesting income compounds your gains in new ideas that were hopefully more promising in the new environment.

The seventh point is study investing to the point where you have an intelligent strategy, and once you have that, don’t abandon it.? Too many people flit from one hot idea to another, but never end up with a coherent strategy that that employ for decades.? Even if I close down my investment business, I will keep applying the same investment strategy for myself, it has worked well for me, even if at present it has been middling for clients.

Every investment strategy goes through periods where it works poorly.? That’s life.? If you have a strategy that always works well, that means:

  • You haven’t run it long enough.
  • You’re not running enough money.
  • You’re not taking enough risk.

Survive through your bad times, and prosper during the times where your intelligent strategy is paying off.? Patience is a virtue in investing for the most part.

Okay, there are seven points from my experience, from my Mom, and from my late Father-in-law.? None of us trained to invest in a formal way, myself included.? (Yes, I received a CFA Charter, but I knew far more than the syllabus did before I took the exams.? The academic stuff I learned was not a help when I was in graduate school.)

An eighth point to consider is that money matters temporally.? Eternally, no, it doesn’t matter.? No one can buy Heaven, as Psalm 49 points out.? But you can use your wealth to aid those who are trying but failing.? That’s important.? As John Wesley put it, “Earn all you can, save all you can, give all you can.”? I am fairly certain that the first two were honored more than the last one, but Wesley was correct there.

In general, being willing to give also correlates with prosperity.? Doing well means more than becoming rich; it means living your life for the good of others.? We should not live for ourselves.? Money is merely a means; it is not an end in itself.? Use your money to the best end that you see.? Loan money to a poor but honest friend at no interest.? You will do something really good there, and God will bless you.? I have done that many times in my life, and it has paid off, though I can’t prove that empirically.

One more note, when you are a giver, you become more careful with your own spending.? You begin thinking more broadly about the world, and realize there is little advantage to most luxuries.? If you have enough, good.? Even Warren Buffett (No Christian he) likes his Burgers and his Coke.? He does not look to luxury in consumption, even as he owns jewelry stores.

He is a bit of a miser, but as he has aged, he has handed over most of his wealth to the Gates Foundation.

In closing, take care over your saving, investing and giving.? They are all important aspects of how those who are improving their financial well-being improve their lives.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Politics & Policy

 

  • Was the Budget Deficit Worth the Fight? http://t.co/jDn9r7DC Budget deficits are an assault on the quality of our money & savings $$ @carney Nov 24, 2012
  • None Dare Call It Default http://t.co/4o0lnQoe A nicer term for what’s about to sock the middle class is ‘entitlement reform.’ $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Judge Pens New Bankruptcy Chapter http://t.co/6V5cUQjS US BK Court Judge Thomas Bennett takes on the Jefferson County, AL Ch 9 filing $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Banks reportedly lining up against Elizabeth Warren committee spot http://t.co/YRAId5TQ & http://t.co/LFXTCZEb I say give her a chance $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Globalism goes backward http://t.co/h6kt67Lz As global growth slows, so does its handmaiden, globalization. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • 2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in 4 Fearsome Ways http://t.co/iZjmM1ZA Pre-election spree, post-reduce deficit, class war, prior laws bite $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • FHA running out of money http://t.co/L1M7lRIK ?We take the findings of the independent actuary very seriously…? loss reserves too low $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Pension cuts could boost state?s Social Security costs http://t.co/61jicHRM If benefits drop below certain level, have 2 pay SS/Med taxes $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Special Dividends Surge Fourfold as US Tax Increase Looms http://t.co/vPVaLNFU Last chance 2 reward shareholders w/low div tax rates $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • http://t.co/LJnienxh San Bernardino: How California law, police/firemen, CALPERS, dysfunctional politics, & bad pension acctg rules killed Nov 19, 2012

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus http://t.co/pJ5FTplo Gold prices react2cost of carry; neg in real terms now $$ #zoom Nov 24, 2012
  • Paula Broadwell?s Radar Tracks Generals, Not Fed http://t.co/WglEhJFo Bernanke’s/Yellen’s ideas will crumble from stagflation $$ @cabaum Nov 24, 2012
  • Abe threatens to turn BOJ into an unlimited piggy bank for the government http://t.co/LxWwmlyP Eventually the real economy will rebel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • It’s a Good Bet the Fed Doesn’t Know What It’s Doing http://t.co/zG6mepy0 Couldn’t pick a worse Fed 4 crisis: imagines it knows what 2 do $$ Nov 19, 2012

?

Hewlett-Packard

 

  • Hurdling H-P: Oracle Shows Way in M&A http://t.co/fiJvmT2N Point is $ORCL ‘s older deals have been productive, $HPQ ‘s not. $$ FD:+$ORCL Nov 23, 2012
  • H-P?s Deal Process Bypassed CFO Pre-Whitman http://t.co/WfawtYfh Note that Cathie Lesjak opposed the Autonomy purchase. Smart lady $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Goodwill Hunting http://t.co/ghFrEDlY @epicureandealmaker takes down a generally cruddy Bloomberg article on $HPQ & Goodwill accounting $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Note to all writing about Hewlett Packard: the ticker is $HPQ, not $HP, which is Helmerich & Payne, which drills oil and gas wells $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Ironic in many ways. HP should have been happy with their engineer-driven pre-Fiorina culture. It did a lot… http://t.co/rqXEW5Bi Nov 20, 2012

?

Loose Monetary Policy Harms Fringe Nations

 

  • Debt Burden Adds to Won Gains in Crimping Korea Rebound http://t.co/y6uHfFEw Loose monetary policy creates debt bubble in S. Korea $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • S&P: Australia is Spain in waiting http://t.co/usllSlBt Heavily indebted financial systems can be like the snowpack prior 2 an avalanche $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Prison of Debt Paralyzes West http://t.co/ofJXWyLu Government debt after a point does not stimulate, but perpetuates unproductive policy $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Purple Palace Abandoned Shows China Shadow-Banking Risk http://t.co/tmg6jPhy China is like Japan 23 years ago: fearsome & malinvested $$ Nov 20, 2012

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Rest of the World

 

  • Egypt Presidential Decree Sparks Protests http://t.co/a5YUcvtN Anyone surprised that the Muslim Brotherhood came out on top? State Dept Nov 23, 2012
  • Can Xi Jinping bring about the change China needs? http://t.co/i3XGKZBJ Long article on the new Chinese leader; very tough road to travel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Pipeline Would Loosen Russian Stranglehold On European Natural Gas Supply http://t.co/3zPUInTZ Where there is a will there is a way $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro http://t.co/nCJ7rLiZ Germany won’t want a banking union; their banks have issues Nov 20, 2012
  • http://t.co/MSqwtq4u China unlikely to make shift to consumption, b/c it means granting freedom to the people & reducing party cronyism $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Personal Finance

 

  • After Sandy damage, insurance adjusters may bring more bad news http://t.co/GTAhE9x3 If odds of getting flooded > 1% get flood insurance $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Tax Moves to Make Now http://t.co/TmoaGOCC Balanced piece; worth a read. Assumes we don’t go over the fiscal cliff: a deal is struck $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Lenders Rev Their Engines http://t.co/5jz3pt3l Surge in Demand for Auto Loans Spurs Push Into Sector; Subprime Is a Big Draw $$ Nov 23, 2012
  • For ‘Credit Invisibles,’ A Market Takes Shape http://t.co/4l849dmK A blast from the past; using payment histories 2 establish credit $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • apparent mojo http://t.co/lDNmxD1s @researchpuzzler does homework, comes to correct conclusion on a tiny junk fund featured in the WSJ $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Draining Away! http://t.co/hQAqzE9M Universal life policies suffer from low interest rates. B sure 2 check the gteed minimum rate $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • The Great Thanksgiving Hoax http://t.co/kwbE39ee Strangers were the lazy ones; like the Hutterites the Saints could have made socialism work Nov 21, 2012
  • Archbishop Says Church Lost Credibility on Women Bishops http://t.co/n7XkjfDM The “laity” understands the Bible better than the priests $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Why One Poll Says 45% Would Rather Skip Christmas http://t.co/zwwqY00R Costs a lot; nativity means much to Christians, Christmas is made-up Nov 20, 2012
  • Windows 8 killed my PC http://t.co/slcTSRVA No operating system should expect 2b equally good touch vs keyboard, tablet vs laptop, etc $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Kill the Password: Y a String of Characters Can?t Protect Us Anymore http://t.co/jPoLzKpK Long but worth it; multifactor ID is the future $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Kyle Bass gives it to us with both barrels http://t.co/yZLt36kW Very long. Worth it if you want to see what he is up to in investing. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Mismeasurement of Pensions Before and After Retirement http://t.co/DwE869Js The full paper, & you don’t have to pay NBER a cent $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • In a Slow Market, Wait for Compelling Values Says Johnson http://t.co/lf891lb5 Expects 5%-ish returns 2013; unusual 2 get small returns $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Tech Sets Correction Course http://t.co/ct7yaWcb Largest sector of the market is feeling soggy, which does not bode well 4 the rest $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Why Mutual Fund Guardians Are Failing http://t.co/UMvk4AAB Old/good article on the flaws of mutual fund governance; skewed incentives $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Investment Falls Off a Cliff http://t.co/GVqnEdLH US Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty; unstable policy Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Other Companies

 

  • I know the basics on a lot of companies but is the first time I have heard of Schiff Nutrition International $SHF http://t.co/jxHIdf1v $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Judge Sees Return to ?Liquidation Scenario? http://t.co/OeDI3sTX Twinkies will survive, but many who produce them will not $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Seen Attracting Bids for Assets From Flowers http://t.co/vAu1o7Wv The brands will get bought; the value is there, not in plants $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Drillers Begin Reusing ‘Frack Water’ http://t.co/nOiR3sy5 Energy Firms Explore Recycling Options 4 Industry That Uses Water Like Chicago Nov 19, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Bad Headline: Wall St Kept Winning on Mortgages Upending Homeowners http://t.co/fuKDx4ss Most tricky mtges not originated by Wall St $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Wrong: S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan http://t.co/jNJ1x0SU When will they learn *not* 2 use P/E 4 mkt valiuation? $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @PlanMaestro Thanks — missed that. Nov 23, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I just can’t believe the 1.5 Billion figure for the Earth’s carrying capacity; even the Club of Rome is more optimistic, no? Nov 23, 2012
  • “How many lines can be drawn in a 2D plane such that they are equidistant from 3 non-collinear points?” 3… http://t.co/QQkn7IcR Nov 23, 2012
  • Grantham is outside of his skill set here, and should be ignored. Also, global population will top out at… http://t.co/ZACbqPQO Nov 23, 2012
  • Nothing against Bill McBride. He deserves praise from all of us. There are three missing pieces though, and… http://t.co/Dfs50uGQ Nov 21, 2012
  • . @Dvolatility H-P CDS Curve Flattens on Write-Down http://t.co/9vWEDzcZ Early buyers of $HPQ protection made decent money, late less $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility $HPQ CDS spreads did forecast the spread widening, but not the magnitude. It also forecast the stock price move also $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @japhychron @TFMkts @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Or, does the negative tangible book have an impact on modeling? $HPQ $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • “You can count beans and trace them back to their sources, good. But can you adequately question the?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/JS3Jbtnb Nov 21, 2012
  • @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Any read on the level 5Y CDS is trading at? Used to have a BBG terminal, but don’t now… Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Where does the $HPQ CDS trade now? Nov 21, 2012
  • @qusmablog Much of the world has to go through a “failure cycle” before “normal growth” can reboot. Many entrenched interests don’t want it. Nov 21, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Also not good for the WSJ 2 write about a small fund w/short track record… bigger problem $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Apologies, Chou Income did beat the Barclays Agg since inception http://t.co/VwYvIVYj Carry does it $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @CEOofmyFUTURE longer term measures like the Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price to resources, & Hussman has a measure also Nov 19, 2012
  • @BloombergNews Who’s in charge of this page: http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK They changed it last week and made it less useful $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Notable & Honorable $$ RT @Nati2de: Larry Hagman was married to the same woman since 1954. Impressive, especially for a Hollywood actor. Nov 24, 2012
  • Growth comes when capital, labor & resources have fair prices RT @BloombergView: Greece needs growth, not austerity | http://t.co/f620QBRU Nov 21, 2012
  • RT @retheauditors: #1 cause of accounting fraud is revenue recognition issues and #1 industry for accounting fraud is technology/softwar … Nov 20, 2012
  • Gracias, no se habla $$ RT @besanson: #FunAndFinance Interest Rate Swaps and LIBOR in 5 minutes // Thanks or RT http://t.co/zu2LP7Nx Nov 20, 2012
  • Torture data until it confesses something $$ RT @Alea_: Does ?Statistical Significance? Imply ?Actually Significant?? http://t.co/BBTfUThF Nov 20, 2012
  • RT @finemrespice: The Federal Housing Administration stands against all prior biological evidence that primates are capable of forming m … Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Blog News

 

  • My week on twitter: 75 retweets received, 4 new listings, 50 new followers, 92 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 22, 2012

 

On Hucksters

On Hucksters

I get my share of requests for help.? Some are from naive friends (but not so naive that they don’t ask me) are solicited on Nigerian scams.? A few quick analyses, and I can tell them: don’t do it.? This is a scam.

Then there are people who trot a business idea past me.? Some of the ideas sound pretty good, but upon further examination, I wonder why it hasn’t worked so far.? Probing that, the answer is that “business partners failed me.”? Mmm… I can understand that once or twice but when it repeats, it makes me look at the entrepreneur.

There was one guy who had a compelling idea regarding health insurance that I thought was promising, and so I let him into my network of contacts, while saying to them “This might be promising or not.? There are some good ideas here, but he is too certain of his views, and that worries me.”? A variety of talented executives looked at his idea, and passed.? A friend of mine gave it some attention, thought it had promise, and he met with him, worked with him, but he proved unstable.? In the end, he blamed us.

That typifies hucksters.? Someone else is always to blame, and they have this great untapped concept, but no one will help fund their genius.

So now, I have a client who approached me regarding an investment in the energy sector pitched to him by a friend.? I help my clients.? If they have investment issues away from me, I will take some time to give them my opinion.

But here’s the problem:

  1. The illustrated returns are too good to be true.
  2. The CEO has no experience operating an energy company.
  3. The CEO’s career has gone here and there, but has not amounted to much, such that he can’t fund a $500K project on his own.
  4. All of the helpers/directors in the illustration document have other jobs now, and may or may not be available to help if the project develops.
  5. Some of them have overstated their resumes, or have stated things that can’t verified.
  6. Some board members are questionable.
  7. The opportunities, if true, are of a reasonable size such that small cap public E&P companies could take advantage of the opportunities.
  8. The core idea is that there are a lot of small lazy oil producers who are unwilling to invest to improve output.
  9. The pitchbook mixes in gold mining and clever trading of energy contracts — those are different businesses.? I want developmental stage businesses to focus.
  10. If the first opportunity costs only$500K, you mean the whole group of interested parties doesn’t have $500K to invest?? I don’t want to invest where the management/board is not invested to the hilt.

I don’t see this as a valid concept, and will tell my friend/client to not invest.

All that said, I want to say to all my readers that good investing considers uncertainty, and focuses on the possibility of loss.? Bad investing focuses on possible gains.

Good investing sardonically asks “Why am I the lucky one?“? There are a lot of Baby Boomers out there who have not done well, and are looking for one miraculous venture to give them the retirement that they dreamed of.? They will take chances with the money of others that they would never do with their own.

To my readers: be wary of private investment opportunities.? Beware of those that are very certain they will succeed, but they need your money to succeed.? The certainty is incompatible with the request for external funds in most cases.

Hucksters are always certain; good investors are skeptical.

Don’t be a Fool

Don’t be a Fool

When I wrote for RealMoney, I would often write things critical of others, but not identify my target.? Why?

  • I didn’t want to get kicked out, or have a fight that would discredit RealMoney.
  • But I did want to teach general principles.

I maintain that practice to this day.? Typically, I don’t name names.? Again, two reasons:

  • I don’t want to get sued.
  • But I do want my readers to understand what are shoddy practices, so they can avoid them.

Recently, a large investment website has been loosening up their standards for who they will allow to advertise via e-mail.? Here is one redacted advertisement:

A New Strategy With Startling Results

Dear Investor,

A small group of XXX clients are making 20% to 40% in trading profits…PER DAY.

They call it ?Exploiting the Banker?s Market.?

Their trading methodology is unlike anything you?ll find in today?s financial marketplace.

And best of all, their newsletter is totally free.

Honestly, this is the only investing newsletter worth your time.

?Sign up for free now. [link removed for your protection]

Sincerely,

XXX Investing Team

P.S. By exploiting the banker?s market, they just hit winners on 19 out of 22 trades, including gains of 45%, 48%, 56%, and 78%.

Prior to this, they took gains on 30 out of 33 trades. You can achieve these same returns. It’s simple.

As long as the bankers remain in control of the markets (and now that Obama got re-elected, you know they will), this unique trading methodology offers you a safe and consistent way to profit.

If you?re interested in profiting day after day ? even if the bankers and the Fed are working against you ? then do not miss these unique trading strategies.

It?s all revealed to you in this free newsletter. [link removed for your protection]

YYY
30 Forest Ave
Naperville, IL 60540

Note that YYY is a penny stock promoter.? XXX may be decent enough, aside from their willingness to employ YYY.? Investing in options is a ticket to the poor house for most, because the market is not very liquid.? It is very hard to make money trading options.? Most lose money doing so.

But here is another from the same e-mail list:

Dear Investor,

Where were you on August 13, 2012, when tech-stock guru WWW gave the green light on EZchip Semiconductor (EZCH), then trading at $28.36?

Well, maybe it doesn?t matter because very few investors had ever even heard of this red-hot networking chip company.

But on November 8, EZchip reported a huge earnings beat and rallied an incredible 15% to $34.80 in one day, delivering a 23% gain for ZZZ subscribers [link removed for your protection] who bought alongside Sean at the $28 level.

So we?ll ask you some simple questions?

  • Do you want to make money off of hot technology trends that have nothing to do with how the US Fiscal Cliff and European drama play out?
  • Would you like to get in on the hot storage play at which Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) are throwing money?
  • Or the semiconductor producer that is printing money on the global transition to 4G/LTE smartphones?
  • How about the left-for-dead social-media play that is about to rise like a phoenix?

If you answered yes, then we’ve got an offer for you.

We?re giving you an exclusive 30% discount on an annual subscription to ZZZ [link removed for your protection] , WWW?s exclusive money-making tech stock newsletter that will help you do all of the above and more.

For just $447 (a savings of nearly $200!), you?ll receive:

? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? Exclusive access to WWW?s hand-picked portfolio of technology stocks ?
? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? Instant e-mail updates whenever WWW makes a trade or initiates new coverage ?
? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? Expert analysis of the most important tech-industry news ?
? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? Access to quarterly webcasts, where WWW delivers in-depth analysis of the technology industry ?
? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? WWW?s special report: 5 Stocks That Will Gain 50% From Apple TV ?
? ? ? ? ?

But most importantly, with a ZZZ subscription, you will get direct access to Sean, who stands by ready to answer any and all reader questions through our regular mailbag feature.

Sean?s goal is simple: to have your ZZZ subscription pay for itself many times over through winning trades while keeping you up to date on everything that?s hot in tech.

So, do you want in? [link removed for your protection]

Advertisements like this appeal to dopes.? There is no easy money in the market.? Anyone can cherry-pick a record of risky calls and show a bunch of wins.? What of the losses? How many and how severe were they?? Why don’t you show the results of an audited real money portfolio that you managed?? What, you didn’t put any real money behind? these calls?

Look, when advertised results are too high, they usually aren’t real.? Get smart.? Avoid websites that propagate such nonsense.? Anyone willing to sully their reputation for a bunch of cheap advertising revenues is not worth your time.? I get about 10 advertising proposals per week, and I turn almost all of them down.

If it seems too good to be true, it is false.? Avoid reaching for the rare exception, and you will be much better off.

An Actuarial Question

An Actuarial Question

Here is a question from a reader:

Hi Mr. Merkel,

?My name is XXXXXXX and I rcently started my ASA modules. I am considering pursuing a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst designation from the SOA. I was curious if, based on your experience in both the financial and actuarial world, you had any thoughts on the CERA designation? I have

2.5 years of experience and work for a pension consulting firm, but would like to broaden my skill set. I really enjoy The Aleph Blog, especially the book reviews. Keep up the good work.

?Thanks,

?XXXX

My response:

Dear XXXX,

I don’t have an opinion on the CERA designation.? In my opinion, the SOA is in the midst of an existential crisis.? How do they survive, prosper, and maybe even grow the SOA?? Outside of their core industries, insurance and employee benefits, they have strong competition.? Many organizations that do something like them are larger than the SOA.

Ideas:

1) Put a gun to the head of the CAS by offering a casualty track.

2) CERA competing against other risk management credentials

3) Make an effort to create new “actuarial” tracks off of the experiences of nontraditional actuaries, most of whom are a lot more entrepreneurial than other actuaries.? Investing, big data, etc.? Look for all the things that involve the intersection of the Law of large numbers and durational discount…

4) Try to cooperate with the CFA Institute — how that will work, I have no idea, and I am reminded of the limerick about the young lady from Niger.

http://allpoetry.com/poem/8518887-Limerick_There_was_a_Young_Lady_of_Niger-by-William_Cosmo_Monkhouse

5) Attempt to merge all actuarial organizations in the US & Canada into one organization — try to go global, like the CFA Institute.? (The rewards of being global are far smaller than imagined.)

Think hard about what you want to do, and analyze which credential will get you there.? Then pursue it with all your strength, and pick up adjacent/tangential skills to differentiate yourself.? That last part is important, and it is what has made my career very different than most actuaries.

It’s kind of like violating the semi-strong form efficient markets hypothesis — in order to do better than the market, you need an edge.? Find that edge, because regardless of what credential you get, you will need to know more than that to excel.

Best wishes,

David

And his response:

Hi David,

Thank you very much for the thoughtful response. I had not considered the size of the SOA in relation to other competing organizations. As you said, I will have to do some hard thinking about what I want to do and pursue the my designations accordingly.

Thanks again,

XXXX

Thee is an article waiting to be written about credentialing in investments, and how the credentials are not worth much.? It is a lot harder to get an FSA from the Society of Actuaries than it is to get a CFA credential from the CFA Institute.? But the CFA offers a lot more with respect to investing than an FSA does.

Now, those are two strong credentials that are worthy of trust.? There are many more credentials out there, and most are not worthy of trust.? Be careful.? Many put initials after their names, and they aren’t worth a lot.? Be careful.

Yield is the Last Refuge of Scoundrels

Yield is the Last Refuge of Scoundrels

Governments involved in financial repression (keeping savings rates below the inflation rate) encourage their citizens to do stupid things by reaching for yield.? Remember, most people think of yield as a magic chicken that lays eggs on schedule, and never gets sick or dies.? Those who truly understand markets know that yield is an allocation of free cash flow, and that many businesses can’t control their free cash flow, so dividends are less than fully certain.

And so, I’m skeptical of the focus on income investing.? With bonds, I am not as skeptical, because there is a promised, though not guaranteed return of principal.? That doesn’t mean there aren’t problems there.? We are having a record year for issuance of corporate bonds.? Abbott Labs is offering a huge deal.? My experience with huge deals is to avoid them, unless there is some special reason to play, kind of like the last bond deal from Household International in 2002, where I bought and then traded them away for the 3o-year non-deal protected bonds bigtime.

That said, I get concerned over:

China has low interest rates for savers, so many Chinese turn to Wealth Management Products in order to earn something decent on their money.? Many of them may be little different than a Ponzi scheme.? When governments do not allow savers to earn rates exceeding inflation, savers turn to all manner of products that could harm them, both legitimate and illegitimate.

The same thing goes on in Malaysia with their Gold Plans, and suchlike.? But let’s keep things simple: let’s invest in the best corporate bond investment out there: long Baa bonds.

What’s that I see?? We’re at a 50-year low for yields on low investment-grade-rated bonds.? Surely the economy should be booming.

What, like the Great Depression, we are in a liquidity trap?? Seems that way.? Additional capital finds rare incremental productive uses, and often the best use is shrinking the company by buying back stock.

Part of that stems from the folly of the Federal Reserve using its balance sheet to buy up all manner of high quality debts by expanding its balance sheet — its cost of finance is 0% (maybe, wait till the losses come, they came to Fannie and Freddie).? By doing so, they distort pricing in the debt markets, favoring issuers over lenders, favoring the government over the private sector.

It leads to nothing good, because increasingly marginal projects get financed.? As in Japan, the marginal efficiency of capital fell dramatically, and has not risen for two decades plus.? Though it would have been painful it would have been better to have more failures and longer recessions 1986-2007.? The Fed should have kept rates higher for longer.? We would have normal markets today if they had.

As I have said before, investors don’t do well when they don’t have a place to park excess money for a small real return.? I’m not looking for the ’80s, when the return was often huge, but something above inflation, fairly estimated.? Until then, the misguided plans of the Fed will continue to do little, as businesses look at the low marginal efficiency of capital, and shrink their operations.? Remember, when businessmen see economic policies that can’t persist, they don’t take advantage of the situation — they pull in their horns and become defensive.? Thus the budget deficits, QE, and the ZIRP lead to a slower economy in the intermediate-term.

Book Review: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio

Book Review: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio

Before I start, a thanks to all of my readers who have voted on my reviews. Note: if you have voted on many of my reviews favorably, further votes won’t help.? Amazon limits the effects of fans.? Onto the book:

For those unfamiliar with Ben Stein, he has done a series of books on “How to Ruin…” for example: How to Ruin Your Life and How to Ruin Your Financial Life. I have not read either of those two books, but after a glance at the table of contents of each book, I can say that what he wrote there is right, even if it is short.

If you can avoid making wrong moves, right moves will occur on average.

But… most of this is simple commonsense stuff reported from a negative angle.? If you have read the personal finance category at my blog, you would know what he has written and far more, and it is free.

There is no bad advice in this book, if you understand that it is offering you bad advice.? By telling you you to do stupid things, it incites you to do what is right.

Quibbles

The book is not worth $12 to those with a reasonable understanding of the markets.? It is worth a lot to the uninformed who think they know something but don’t.? This is a book you give; it is not a book that you buy.

Who would benefit from this book: ? This is the sort of book that you give as a gift to your clueless brother-in-law.? It has value there, to raise the awareness of those who are destroying their financial lives.? If you want to, you can buy it here: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio.

Full disclosure: The publisher sent me a hard copy of the book, without my asking.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Hoisington Capital Management

 

  • . @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • @wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
  • Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • “During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
  • A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
  • How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
  • These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule?indeed, ?nearly not observable.? Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • “Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the ?wealth effect? of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior Tweet a quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
  • QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

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Please Follow

 

  • #FF @japhychron @danprimack @treehcapital @insidermonkey @vitaliyk @herbgreenberg @tracyalloway @nancefinance @marykissel @diana_olick $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
  • Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
  • IMF?s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • IMF Sees ?Alarmingly High? Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012
  • Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ?97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

 

US Real Estate

 

  • OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Agriculture

 

  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012

 

Other

 

  • I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Musk?s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Comments

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  • “Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
  • At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$? http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

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On Angela

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  • @PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
  • @PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

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Retweets

 

  • RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
  • I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • My week on twitter: 22 retweets received, 22 new followers, 16 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Oct 11, 2012
  • RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
  • True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
  • Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012
Set it and Forget it

Set it and Forget it

This post is directed at people who don’t get the markets.? People who think they they are experts can stop reading now.

I’m the Chairman of the Pension Board of the Reformed Presbyterian Church of North America.? Yes, that long-lived but small denomination that never went through the controversies of modernism, still teaching that Jesus Christ rules everything on earth NOW, and we exclusively sing the psalms of David without accompaniment in our worship.

Here is something that is no surprise: most pastors who are serious students of Scripture don’t get financial markets.? Truth, that is true of most people who know their technical crafts, but don’t get how financial markets work.

What I am about to say should work for most people who don’t get investing — choose a blend of risky and less-risky assets.? Ask your self this question: how much are you willing to lose in a year at worst as a percentage of assets? Take that amount and multiply it by 2.0-2.5.? That is the maximum amount that you should allocate to risky assets.? (Strangely, that mostly corresponds to the current margin rules.)

Average people can’t monitor the markets, and even if they did, they would not know what to do.? Far better that they “set it and forget it,” than that they panic when things are are going bad, or get greedy when things are running hot.

Thus we encourage the pastors to buy blended funds.? I encourage them to buy one notch down on their risk tolerances, because the return give-up is small, but the likelihood of them not panicking is large.

For those who are uninformed, that is important.? Buy-and-hold is a good strategy if maintained at a risk level that avoids panic.

Now. I’m not crazy about the market at present.? I would shade allocations to the 2.ox side of risk, not the 2.5x side.? But what we have found at the pension board of the RPCNA is that the pastors do best who choose a blended fund that they can stick with through tough times.

My own pastor is squeamish with investing, but I looked at what he “should” do in investing, and told him to dial it back one notch.? It has been to his benefit.? He has not panicked, and has made decent money over the last 10 years.

Thus to summarize: estimate your willingness to lose money over a year, and size your allocation to risky assets appropriately.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

 

  • Chavez ?Likely? to Lose, Supporting Bonds, Barclays Says http://t.co/zcufsNLN Something optimistic 4a Friday afternoon; but will he go? $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Spain Sees Divorce Driving Breakup of Towns in Recession http://t.co/J423DVhS Badly handled, economic problems lead2 relationship problems Oct 05, 2012
  • BOJ Seeks Help Against Deflation http://t.co/G1ONwoA7 Contrary to popular belief, low central bank policy rates inhibit growth $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Europe Jumps on Bank-Overhaul Bandwagon http://t.co/daaAcm0l also http://t.co/oxESdQiY Basel has done a bad job setting capital levels Oct 03, 2012
  • How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro http://t.co/KWlbuvkT Clever politician sways Merkel through Hollande & wins4now $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • The real risk is the Capriles wins by a little, & Chavez finds a way to retain power. $$ http://t.co/k5f5082A Oct 03, 2012
  • Property Funds, Bonds Supplant Europe Lenders http://t.co/ebXwgIxa Banks can’t lend; watch currency risk, liquidity risk & credit risk $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • Longest Rally in Nine Years for JGBs on Deflation http://t.co/dCzC59cM 6th straight quarter of gains: matches a similar stretch in 2003 $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • Norway?s Wealth Fund Targets U.S. Real Estate by End 2013 http://t.co/JQalAy2U They have a long time horizon; this isn’t 4 speculators $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • Spain Expects a Wider Budget Gap http://t.co/5AHLEGGI No surprise, Eurozone numbers r routinely gamed, b/c there is no enforcement $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • Trade Slows Around World http://t.co/YkTFRBDE Kind of a soggy feeling w/China slowing, huge gov’t deficits & loose $$ policy Oct 02, 2012

Energy

 

  • Bakken Crude Prices Rise as Railroad Reach Grows http://t.co/m34o45AD Fascinating 2c transportation matching crude supply & demand $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports http://t.co/ycNBikZR Usually big, aggressive investments don’t work out. Small ones are manageable $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • California Refiners Ration Gasoline as Prices Near Record http://t.co/sWGlRBF1 also http://t.co/gk85k7jC Price of EPA fuel rules $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Regulations help create shortages because gas in 1 area can’t be used in another. Time to simplify & have fewer blend? http://t.co/Y925MhFg Oct 04, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • Jet-Lease Billionaire Udvar-Hazy Takes On $AIG Hand That Fed Him http://t.co/04THKwF7 When AIG bot ILFC, took stock to avoid taxes, oops Oct 05, 2012
  • Apple?s Steve Jobs: What He Knew in 1983 http://t.co/JyLPvlbW Jobs was an amazing guy. What he foresaw makes him even more amazing. $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • Dan Loeb and Boyz II Men: Break Up Murphy Oil http://t.co/MdPhjujW $MUR doesn’t want to break up, but many oils cos r going that way $$ Oct 04, 2012

 

Federal Reserve

 

  • When central banks feel they need to reveal more & show action, they fall into a trap of over-acting, which leads to a liquidity trap $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Fed Seeks to Clarify Plans http://t.co/DzOT2NXj Fed transparency is a bad idea. Fed managed $$ policy better when it revealed little Oct 05, 2012
  • Rubik?s Revolutions http://t.co/Q3SAYuJ6 @izkaminska takes us through the vagaries of why QE doesn’t do that much. We r Japan now $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Don?t call it money printing, rubiks cube edition http://t.co/Eo5vkEkN No, QE is not money printing, but it won’t be easy 2 undo $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Bernanke Seeks Gains for Stocks in Push for Jobs http://t.co/Xby6Bvd9 Monetary policy favors the rich over the poor in the current Fed $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • TIPS Show Inflation Alarm Fading as Options Give Fed Time http://t.co/YgLi0BDr Off ~15 bps since QE3 launch $$ http://t.co/J90Ch2FL Oct 02, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Despite Gains, Many Flee Stock Market http://t.co/JRhWY0c8 Y retail investors tend to lose- fail 2 buy & hold @ a moderate risk level $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Investors Jump Off the ‘Junk’ Pile http://t.co/iqbZRo5b New record in junk issuance, & a very low proportion of BBs, feels like 2006 $$ Oct 05, 2012
  • Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Keep Losing Market Share, And They May Be OK With It http://t.co/1gKpSevF RIAs Ascendent $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • My (Not so) Golden Rules About Investing (& Not Investing) http://t.co/YNReadXs HT: @reformedbroker 25.75 tungsten-filled investing rules $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • Early Impact Of 401(k) Fee Disclosure Rules http://t.co/HBdtk7Oy This will be big. When you really c how much expenses they charge, ouch $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • They’re back! Yield hunt pushes funds into CLOs, CDOs http://t.co/x47V6xSc Into the final phase of the credit rally. Wind it tighter! $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • Stop Me Before I Do Something Stupid http://t.co/tOjyLW7R Tips for becoming a more disciplined investor?and boosting your returns $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • The Three Most Overrated (& Underrated) Financial Planning Recommendations http://t.co/eIMjtTjt Worth a read $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • For Warren Buffett, the cash option is priceless http://t.co/srmJcalh If you have the discipline, the cash option has value, if not no $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Damages http://t.co/MzXBB2QR Bill Gross takes an inflationary view, & assumes that the deflationary forces of the world will go away $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Dylan Grice Writes His Most Negative Note Ever http://t.co/VIhFGEEc Notes that the present QE policy favors the rich over the poor $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • America?s new subprime boom: This time it?s cars http://t.co/EBkXqw0a This will b a positive trend for 2 yrs; worry out in 2014 $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • 6 reasons to dump a bad mutual fund http://t.co/IleCG33t Could b simpler: sell when you find a fund w/better prospects net of loads $$ Oct 02, 2012

 

Politics

  • The Romney Reboot Arrives http://t.co/ViEoTb5L I’m voting 3rd party, but it is interesting 2c the presidential contest liven up $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • How to Make an Ailing World Economy Even Sicker http://t.co/XDiOkq5U The idea of gradually reducing the deficit is politically naive $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Romney’s Middle-Class Tax Sale http://t.co/qywvSVXM The devil is in the details, & true of Obama as well. Ended up being Bush-plus $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Romney Floats Idea of Itemized Deduction Cap http://t.co/E5nkUUO3 Has to be a cleaner way 2 do this. Ah, return to TRA ’86. Simple $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Obama Cabinet Flunks Disclosure Test With 19 in 20 Ignoring Law http://t.co/Nt07Bgwu Less transparent than Bush http://t.co/NZ6A3PIs $$ Oct 02, 2012

 

Bank Regulation

 

  • Bank-Friendly US Regulator Shifts Focus to Revamp Reputation http://t.co/xUVY1UOE OCC is actually going to regulate banks?! Who knew? $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • Freddie’s Foreclosure Plan Hits Roadblock http://t.co/XrUeAjze We don’t get it. After 2 much debt financing housing we seek more debt $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Banking should be a low ROE business.? High capital levels keep the banking system safe. $$ http://t.co/uUntNaXw Oct 03, 2012
  • Intelligence Exits Washington, Vacancies Rise http://t.co/VJt1y4KU Will b interesting 2c how comm RE pricing shifts as Wash DC retrenches Oct 03, 2012
  • Banks Like Munis; Mom-and-Pop Investors Don’t http://t.co/ugDPBL4F I don’t get how banks w/short liabilities can buy long munis $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • Sheila Bair: The one thing banking regulators should do now http://t.co/tu5jGYx4 Her solution is to raise capital requirements $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • A Very Strange Way to Assess the Safety of Banks http://t.co/8u05kbZO Simpler metrics than Basel r needed; complex ones r easy 2 game $$ Oct 02, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Big Picture Conference 10/10/12 http://t.co/IrsvZtU0 Lineup: Barofsky, Grice, Yamarone, O’Shaughnessy, Ritholtz, Rosenberg, Bianco & more $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • Bill Gross calls for a balanced budget so that all Treasury bonds & his bonds will get paid in full. $$ http://t.co/lTzq5zmf Oct 02, 2012
  • SEC Leads From Behind as High-Frequency Trading Shows Data Gap http://t.co/H6YnjVWr SEC way behind $NDAQ & $NYX in understanding HFT $$ Oct 02, 2012

 

Comments

 

  • RE: She bought Paypal, the most valuable part of $EBAY . What more could you ask for? $$ http://t.co/tfEVghRF Oct 04, 2012
  • Commented on StockTwits: Name 3 insurers that have managed Life & P&C operations well… I am a former insurance buy… http://t.co/aMsgW4nN Oct 03, 2012
  • Commented on StockTwits: Pretty certain that the DTAs would be divided up in a breakup. Insurance acctg tracks DTAs … http://t.co/NGmkWSmk Oct 03, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview This really seems like wishful thinking. Huge difference in the way most Muslims & Westerners thin? http://t.co/rMt8w3zf Oct 03, 2012
  • Commented on StockTwits: $HIG has issues with variable products 2a higher degree, even though $AIG has the same issu… http://t.co/JWzZSvrV Oct 03, 2012
  • Commented on StockTwits: There r no synergies btw each of the 3 groups: no advantage to having P&C, Life & Other tog… http://t.co/sRU7zWys Oct 03, 2012
  • Commented on StockTwits: I would split P&C & Life & everything else — still a valid idea. http://t.co/FPAXZZUX Oct 02, 2012
  • RE: @PS46MMUCF4PDUIQ4LRUF3DMW2A That doesn’t solve “fat finger” problems, rogue automated trader, or feedback loop pr? http://t.co/EgjYsqbZ Oct 02, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @incakolanews Could be… or maybe Barclays is trying to reduce its VZ bond inventory… Oct 05, 2012
  • . @The_Analyst The life insurance industry got burnt on CDO crops 1 (1998) & 2 (2001), but not 3 (2008), what will crop 4 yield? $$ Oct 04, 2012
  • @BlackRaven999 Both stock & flow are important, that is what makes this complex 2 understand Oct 03, 2012
  • @DividendMaster I think that either a significant recession &/or inflation is unavoidable. Delayed deficit decline means no deficit decline Oct 03, 2012
  • @BlackRaven999 Waiting till maturity leaves QE deposits in the system 4a long time due to twist. All removal of policy accommodation is hard Oct 03, 2012
  • @hook910 Take it up w/Buffett who has done it successfully. Intelligent businessmen do it: buy cheap assets when opportunities allow. $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • @hook910 With a long enough time horizon, and patient capital, market timing can succeed, value mgrs do this. This is what Buffett & FPA do Oct 03, 2012
  • @hook910 So you admit that the value of dry powder does change over time. Thanks! 😉 Oct 03, 2012
  • @hook910 It is not on option on cash, but cash can b thought of as an option on other assets. Was dry powder valuable in late 2008? Yes $$ Oct 03, 2012
  • @wanderinggull I think it is a bit of a stretch Oct 02, 2012
  • @DividendMaster They r attempting to lock in a smaller loss. Wonder when the yield on the 30-yr TIPS goes negative? $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • @ReformedBroker I respect Chuck Royce, but basically he is estimating the odds of deflation as being very low. What if China shrinks? $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Big installed base for LIBOR, easy to offer something better: even total up all US interbank lending 4a day, calc avg rate $$ Oct 02, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • RT @ppearlman: RT @AlephBlog: Break up $AIG. I said it first here: http://t.co/MKsYqMYo then here: http://t.co/fZ6EW85e $$ Oct 02, 2012
  • Break up AIG $$ RT @ppearlman: RT @RonReuven @ppearlman no one understands all of $AIG’s assets or businesslines, including most of $AIG Oct 02, 2012

 

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