“When women stay home and they raise their kids & maintain the household, it is a job. It’s a job of love.” http://t.co/NV1JddlL #wellsaid Apr 13, 2012
@historysquared Have not seen anything definitive on that, but production from fracking decays faster than conventional production. $$ Apr 13, 2012
10 Things I Hate About Tax Day http://t.co/SvezPoPV “There is absolutely no defense for it – none – & yet it persists, year after year.” Apr 11, 2012
@TimABRussell It varies. Most of the books I review are within a year of (re)publication. Some are as old as the 1960s. >95% last 10 yrs $$ Apr 09, 2012
So, you did an article ghostwritten by Robert Berman, Cinium’s CEO? Lovely. He gets around. But what does Smartmo… http://t.co/usg0buic Apr 09, 2012
Voices: Phil Cioppa, On Hiring Advisers http://t.co/zNN92rP4 Most sales positions have high turnover, particularly w/intangible products Apr 11, 2012
Agree that America declines, but China also RT @historysquared: Historian warns of sudden collapse of American ?empire? http://t.co/Z4hVtKkk Apr 13, 2012
Shadow Banks on Trial as China?s Rich Sister Faces Death http://t.co/dJfEanEw It is morally wrong to put someone 2 death 4a property crime Apr 11, 2012
Is China slowing down? http://t.co/IJA8jobS From the AEI, very clueless piece: China should raise its exchange rate & lower the central rate Apr 11, 2012
Hong Kong?s Tsang ?Highly Concerned? About Property Price Bubble http://t.co/XHRBLgY5 Devel Nations monetary policy fuels many bubbles $$ Apr 10, 2012
‘Jackie Kennedy of China’ at Center of Political Drama http://t.co/MvIPw1oy The politics of China r dirtier than the US & more secretive Apr 10, 2012
China Inflation Exceeds Forecast http://t.co/Z9hnKj1Y Too little attention paid here; too much confidence in Chinese central bankers $$ Apr 09, 2012
@valuewalk Yes, saw it and the followup bet. I owe a decent amount of my intl economics thinking to Pettis, but not my errors 😉 $$ Apr 09, 2012
The ways China can rebalance http://t.co/2ZtRG4F2 Michael Pettis on the constraints the China faces as it tries 2 rebalance its economy $$ Apr 09, 2012
Newspapers
+1 RT @The_Analyst: I feel like unless its a special situation, everyone who “gets” newspapers would never make a LT investment in them Apr 12, 2012
Buffett “didn’t get tech.” I don’t get newspapers. $$ RT @WSJDealJournal: Warren Buffett Building Newspaper Empire? http://t.co/jDx5goqw Apr 12, 2012
I don’t get the economics of the newspaper biz $$ RT @WSJDealJournal: Warren Buffett Building Newspaper Empire? http://t.co/jDx5goqw Apr 12, 2012
Electronic Bond Markets
BlackRock’s Street Shortcut http://t.co/JO4Wm5sY Would work better 4 stocks than bonds. Most bonds r held a long time & do not trade $$ Apr 12, 2012
If the buyside created their own internal stock exchange, they could reduce the effect of the HFTs on the market & make life harder 4 retail Apr 12, 2012
But an internal bond exchange as proposed by $BLK won’t do that much, institutional transaction costs aren’t that hi 4 commonly traded bonds Apr 12, 2012
When I was a bond mgr 1998-2003, aside from obscure & illiquid bonds my commissions were $1/32nd or $1/64th per $100 — 1-3 basis points $$ Apr 12, 2012
@TFMkts So I would ask you, have comm rates 4 bonds gone up since 2002? My normal trade size back then was $5-20Mil, comms 1-3 bps then $$ Apr 12, 2012
@TFMkts Most bonds don’t trade, though. When I was a bond mgr, I needed guys who could find bonds. Always paid them; never let them cross2me Apr 12, 2012
Delta Airlines
It is usually a bad sign when a company can’t manage its current business well, & it tries to enter a difficult unrelated business. $DAL $$ Apr 11, 2012
Best quote: “Edward Hirs…says he can think of one reason why Delta would try to get into the refining business: ‘because they?re stupid.'” Apr 11, 2012
Why Buying A Refinery Could Be A Disaster For Delta Air Lines (Even With JPMorgan’s Help) http://t.co/MDvs9D26 & http://t.co/gJ0G44Uo $$ Apr 11, 2012
Rest of the World
Qatari Bright Lights Prompt EU?s Hedegaard to Urge Climate Plan http://t.co/0zjAmGit Another reason why multilateralism doesn’t work. $$ Apr 12, 2012
Kenyans Almost Dead on Worst Roads Getting New Highways http://t.co/Szcs1Tcy Next time u r stuck in traffic b thankful u r not in Kenya $$ Apr 11, 2012
These Charts Point to Trouble for Australia http://t.co/F00FtbpW Housing bubble, co-dependent relationship w/China, & large pool of hot $$ Apr 10, 2012
It’s rich 2c Dilma Rousseff criticizing Obama. But Brazil is further down the line in the devel nations game of monetary crack-the-whip $$ Apr 10, 2012
Bank of Canada stressed about housing http://t.co/4kC0JW3D Nothing like a debt financed housing bubble 2 make a central banker flinch $$ Apr 09, 2012
Economics
Good Jobs News: More People Are Quitting http://t.co/1BlIvqOj The job market is more healthy if people are quitting to take other jobs. Apr 12, 2012
Obama?s Fantasy Budget Suggests Tax Hike Surprise http://t.co/03tkRMjZ Obama would likely b more radical in a 2nd term #nothing2lose $$ Apr 11, 2012
Tax Breaks for Wealthy Should Be Cut, Paul Ryan Says http://t.co/QppnNGQz “focus our poverty-eradication policies on treating root causes” Apr 11, 2012
@DavidSchawel I don’t think the paper changes my main point, it will be very difficult for the Fed to remove “stimulus.” Apr 11, 2012
Bernanke Gives College Lecture Series High Marks http://t.co/hu0WNLXq H/L overstates: ?I was very happy with the lectures,? he said. $$ Apr 10, 2012
The Fed sold half its short-term notes via Operation Twist http://t.co/Lag2CYWs Will have no short assets if the pace continues 4 6 mos $$ Apr 10, 2012
Job Gains in US Trail Most-Pessimistic Forecasts http://t.co/ELesokyT People asked me y I was more pessimistic than most, well… $$ Apr 08, 2012
Asset Markets
Does ?Sell in May? Really Work? http://t.co/kBNPaslt Reality is more complex than adages. The rule should be sell September, buy November $$ Apr 12, 2012
Gunning for yield and “quality” leaves little room for error http://t.co/HW90vwkj High quality junk does not offer enough yield 4 risks $$ Apr 12, 2012
High-Yield Bond ETF Breaks March Low http://t.co/lLB2qX19 I sold a lot of my credit-sensitive bond investments today. Market feels weak $$ Apr 11, 2012
@munilass @carney High earned & discount rate assumptions did lower contributions by assuming investment earnings would carry the load $$ + Apr 10, 2012
@munilass @carney & many municipalities substituted benefit increases 4 salary increases, b/c no immed $$ effect; many factors in play here Apr 10, 2012
Flouting Risks, Investors Gorge on Fat Yields of Emerging Market Debt http://t.co/5zZV03Jb Will eventually end badly; Russia 1998 $$ Apr 10, 2012
Retweet after me. I HATE HFT TRADING BOTS 😉 RT @merrillmatter: Repeat after me. I HATE HFT TRADING BOTS $$ Apr 09, 2012
How to Improve the Potential of Less Volatile Stocks http://t.co/90gHiISj Adding a quality screen further improves returns & risk/vol $$ Apr 09, 2012
A Laugh http://t.co/IcFMDnbb @brucekrasting suggests that clearinghouses will concentrate risk rather than dissipating it. $$ #nomagic Apr 08, 2012
The Dividend-Fund Dilemma http://t.co/MYdoxPJh I buy dividend-paying stocks because they generate good cash flows, not for the dividend. Apr 08, 2012
M&A
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Much $$ stuck overseas MT @ThemisSal: Just 5 companies, $AAPL, $MSFT, $CSCO, $GOOG and $PFE now hold nearly 25% of all corporate cash, $250B Apr 09, 2012
Yeh, like dat. 2 much $$ chasing 2 little value RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog another brilliant cerberus deal like chrysler, gmac? Apr 09, 2012
AT&T to Sell Majority of Yellow Pages Business to Cerberus http://t.co/RIAX6dwb Cigar butt industry; internet changes everything published Apr 09, 2012
Both MT @ktbenner: who’s overpaying now: The Zuck or Steve Feinberg… @Pfro: $T sells Yellow Pages 4 ~$1bn 2 Cerberus http://t.co/IGLXXUrp Apr 09, 2012
$AOL to Sell Patents to $MSFT 4 $1.1B http://t.co/upBaZBRo Too much $$ chases a legal arms race in Infotech Intellectual property #waste Apr 09, 2012
@ReformedBroker I didn’t know Instagram that well, but they don’t seem to have a revenue model. What could $FB do with it? $$ Apr 09, 2012
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Insurance
RE: @marketfolly He compares AIG to P&C companies,? but the life companies are a valuation drag here.? Not a fair com? http://t.co/J4aCu4tf Apr 12, 2012
Property insurance rates rising worldwide – Marsh http://t.co/CZOHLGfG When surplus is reduced at (re)insurers, premium rates rise $$ Apr 11, 2012
Statutory Statements under Affiliated party transactions. Regulators would b annoyed if terms indicate transaction that’s not “arm’s-length” Apr 10, 2012
A Costly Toy Subsidized by Others http://t.co/iJea3rTt If Guggenheim is using its insurers 2 fund Dodgers purchase, will show up in + $$ Apr 10, 2012
Eurozone
Spain’s spreads breaking away from other risk indicators http://t.co/SulecZWv “we r in an uncharted territory with respect to this widening” Apr 11, 2012
Has bad implications for EZ sustainability $$ RT @pdacosta: Who’s peripheral now? French economy grinds to a halt http://t.co/VSsZtaWI Apr 10, 2012
Currency disunion http://t.co/ApXlpMXK Why Europe?s leaders should think the unthinkable; EZ can breakup on own terms, or unfavorable terms Apr 09, 2012
Eurozone’s banks cutting dollar businesses http://t.co/wX1kHu8G European banks will never again rely hard on US MMFs to finance their $$ ops Apr 09, 2012
Euro Was Flawed at Birth and Should Break Apart Now http://t.co/ZxPy0vId All the things that I predicted have come true & more. Bye, Euro. Apr 08, 2012
Politics
Wind Power Seen Surging as Custom Barges Cut Set-up Costs http://t.co/XA96RbEj Don’t see how this makes the cost of wind power economic $$ Apr 10, 2012
For Feds, ‘Lying’ Is a Handy Charge http://t.co/2tLcdyKQ Law in the US becomes more arbitrary; crimes can b dreamed up by bureaucrats $$ Apr 10, 2012
Complexity Is Bad for Your Health http://t.co/v9pLQi1V Antonin Scalia & Stephen Breyer agree (!): Obama’s health care law unreadable $$ Apr 09, 2012
High-Speed Rail Takes Californians 4 a Ride http://t.co/fZlC3MQx Rail makes sense in densely populated areas, won’t work in California $$ Apr 09, 2012
High Yield Closed End Funds 68% over NAV, 3% avg premium. Loan Participation CEFs 40% over NAV, -1% avg discount. Conditions r medium hot $$ Apr 07, 2012
Why Stocks Look Too Pricey http://t.co/TWqZzGg3 Various Indicators Suggest the Market Is No Longer a Bargain, at best fairly valued $$ Apr 07, 2012
Contra: The alarming fall in syndicated lending http://t.co/hiGK9UoK With the high yield mkt running hot why not avoid restrictive banks $$ Apr 06, 2012
Time to take some risk off the table http://t.co/sCuYxc6u Trends breaking globally, US looks okay. Humble Student has made good calls lately Apr 04, 2012
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed http://t.co/thKsHa8J QE Removal: what happens to banks if Fed does & 2 inflation if Fed doesn’t $$ Apr 03, 2012
Junk Bonds ? Getting Risky for a New Reason? http://t.co/7bJ08JxT Record pace of junk issuance bodes ill 4 performance… 3 yrs from now. $$ Apr 03, 2012
Two Pros Weigh In on U.S. Stocks: Ben Inker’s Bearish View http://t.co/iJ7742P5 Katie Nixon’s Bull View http://t.co/Zn9jj503 $$ Apr 02, 2012
Eichengreen on Credit Bubbles http://t.co/bSs0MHPA Leading indicator of finl stress in em mkts: loan growth > 2x GDP growth 2 yrs earlier $$ Apr 01, 2012
Taking the High Out of High Yield http://t.co/WYIvHb0n Nonprofessionals are the ones buying junk at the margin. This won’t end well. $$ Apr 01, 2012
Central Banking
The ECB has completely lost control over the monetary policy for Greece http://t.co/MHNTXLHo Massive liquidity drain; total credit failure Apr 07, 2012
Post-war financial repression is back http://t.co/JGLo9Aic If the post-war experience is any guide, savers face many years of suffering. Apr 06, 2012
Bernanke – I’m Slowing Down the Ship http://t.co/TJcJl20n Stocks don’t like less inflation coming and so they fall. But bonds rally. $$ Apr 06, 2012
Draghi Scotches ECB Exit Talk as Spain Keeps Crisis Alive http://t.co/rREDdqrW LTRO can only go so far; can solve liquidity, not solvency Apr 06, 2012
The Market?s Obsessive Fixation on The Fed & QE http://t.co/W6kg1n7k Runs through a Fed tightening scenario, thinks Fed won’t sell bonds $$ Apr 04, 2012
Oest.. Nationalbank follows Bundesbank in refusing some periphery collateral http://t.co/96xx0xg7 Not so big in itself; Tear in EZ fabric Apr 04, 2012
Draghi Tested as German Pay Deals Add to Euro Divergence http://t.co/glKumOZx Inflation rising @ core? May even labor productivity some $$ Apr 04, 2012
@federalreserve Tried using your Data Download Program today http://t.co/vRroRPMt I managed 2get the data I needed, but it was tough 2use Apr 03, 2012
Bernanke – ‘The Fed never makes mistakes’ http://t.co/JBgRHqx2 He goes, speaks to soft audiences, argues that no one could have known #dope Apr 01, 2012
China
Coup Rumors in China Have Deeper Meaning http://t.co/QaoDxKFF Small fissures appearing in the Communist Party’s hold on power $$ Apr 07, 2012
Australia?s Export Slump Intensifies Rate-Cut Pressure http://t.co/sIDzeteW China sneezes, Australia catches a cold, mate. $$ Apr 06, 2012
China doomsayer sees crash coming http://t.co/2QatU1ps Hardly a crash, but GDP shrinking. Wait, that *is* a crash for China? $$ Apr 06, 2012
The Revenge of Wen Jiabao http://t.co/nw5qvCNa Long read. Eye-opening. Formal system of Comm Party eclipsed by family coalitions that war $$ Apr 04, 2012
The informal aspects of how China is governed relies on rival coalitions of elite families over the long run. Short-run, Comm party rules $$ Apr 04, 2012
China Accelerates Markets Opening as QFII Quota Doubles http://t.co/yrXVDcdR May prove 2b significant due to unintended consequences $$ Apr 04, 2012
China Manufacturing Gain Masks Exporters? Woes http://t.co/VyeN9AWF Goods unneeded by the rest of the World build up in China $$ #glut Apr 03, 2012
United States
When safe assets return http://t.co/QLUPuj1j Long piece on the status of money-like instruments, public and private. Many questions. $$ Apr 07, 2012
Income Inequality Is Killing the Economy, Obama Says?Is He Wrong? http://t.co/xrA4pGu2 Going up in developed world, going down globally $$ Apr 07, 2012
And I don’t get it as well, Josh.? I’m as Libertarian as they come, but with financial services, I know that trickery? http://t.co/lIJDCr1Y Apr 05, 2012
The return of the US manufacturer http://t.co/75WCMyPi Manufactured goods represented 61 per cent of all US exports during 2010 $$ Apr 04, 2012
+1 RT @ReformedBroker: ADP is the Diet Arizona Iced Tea of Employment gauges. Like, we’ll take it if it’s there but no one’s looking for it Apr 04, 2012
When does the US Treasury bubble burst? http://t.co/8agHomQH “Pomboy pointed out that Treasury yields are less than current CPI rates” $$ Apr 03, 2012
Why Are the Fed and SEC Keeping Wall Street?s Secrets? http://t.co/bZYF3LgV Fed & SEC view those they regulate as their clientele $$ Apr 02, 2012
US consumers dipping into savings http://t.co/757XDPuW Implies that the recovery is weaker than presently posited, demand comes from savings Apr 01, 2012
Obama Campus Fervor Losing 2 Apathy as Students Sour on 2012 http://t.co/kcyQbWKI Students thought they were getting change, got Bush-plus Apr 01, 2012
How Stockton, California Went Broke in Plain Sight http://t.co/ggOzSOmV If you hand out benefit increases like they are candy… $$ Apr 01, 2012
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Finance
Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street http://t.co/L0CzLQVN Recommend this video, features Paul Wilmott, Matthew Goldstein, & more $$ Apr 07, 2012
The 401(k): Americans ?just not prepared? 2 manage their own retirement funds http://t.co/8Tr0wggt Conclusions similar http://t.co/etCEp8BT Apr 06, 2012
Hedge Funds Accomplishing Very Little in the Aggregate? http://t.co/pxqjw2kk HFs tend 2b volatility-averse, weaker funding than long-only $$ Apr 04, 2012
Ackman SPAC a nice touch, no? RT @ReformedBroker: Private Equity-held Burger King coming public again. “Hooray!” said no one to no one else Apr 04, 2012
Performance persistence in hedge funds http://t.co/zORfjAts How do hedge funds differ v unlevered value investors? $$ gets pulled vals drop Apr 04, 2012
ETN Double Dipping With GAZ? http://t.co/Uo9y1T5p Interesting piece. An ETN issuer can make more $$ stopping creation & lending shares Apr 04, 2012
Loan classes “season” over 10-30% of the life of loan… defaults/prepays stabilize. Large cohorts 4 bond issuance go bad in the 3rd yr $$ Apr 03, 2012
Merrill, Morgan Stanley seen losing grip on rich http://t.co/44mW7ki0 Top 4 brokers mkt share 56% in 2007, 45% in 2011 & still falling $$ Apr 03, 2012
Low Vol Underperforming http://t.co/NYqjw2Fp Every valid strategy has times when it doesn’t work, to shake out the weak hands $$ Apr 03, 2012
Corporate pension funds break away from equities http://t.co/EMPaDGea Yes, when yields r low, DB plans move 2 bonds. Brilliant. $$ Apr 03, 2012
Does Danger Loom for Multiemployer Pension Plans? http://t.co/VpfDZ04m Plans that are <80% funded must take steps 2 nurse plans 2 health $$ Apr 01, 2012
Credit Suisse Opened Volatility Bets to Small Investors http://t.co/ZLMGANXh Wall Street produces products 2 benefit itself, not retail $$ Apr 01, 2012
Keynes: One Mean Money Manager http://t.co/WJ2jESFE “The board of King’s College gave him uncontested authority to invest as he wished.” Apr 01, 2012
Japan
Just a guess, but after Japan’s Current Account goes into deficit for ~2 years, the big adjustment down in the Yen will happen. $$ #ouch Apr 06, 2012
@valuewalk Probably because so many have lost money shorting the yen, & some have made $$ long the yen, that many just trust the momentum $$ Apr 06, 2012
@valuewalk long-dated yen currency puts have fairly low vol 😉 Not doing that either, but… someone will. Apr 06, 2012
Yen Forecast: Xie Sees 40% Drop, Japan Bubble Bursting http://t.co/EjI7hytt Wow. Thinks Japan near tipping point 4 internal financing fail Apr 06, 2012
Japan?s Strongest Storm Since 1959 Slams Into Tokyo Region http://t.co/CCOVz7C6 Very unusual 4 Tokyo 2 have such strong winds w/no typhoon Apr 03, 2012
Yen Losing Most Since ?95 Not Enough for Toyota http://t.co/IT0g84s8 Japanese Industry cheerleaders 4 “penny parity” $$ #race2thebottom Apr 02, 2012
Insurance
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Advisers, B-Ds retreat from Hartford http://t.co/garB6Bwn Not offering new annuities means can’t roll to $HIG products when surr chg ends $$ Apr 03, 2012
Agents will try to get holders of $HIG annuities to roll elsewhere when surr charge ends (new commission $$ ), but be careful if you own an+ Apr 03, 2012
annuity from $HIG, b/c one reason they are getting out of the biz, I think, is that some of the secondary gtees were 2 generous + Apr 03, 2012
there is probably a business in analyzing secondary gtees, b/c some r quite valuable, &u wouldn’t want 2get tricked into rolling it by agent Apr 03, 2012
Contra: Rising equity markets to drive US life insurers-Barclays http://t.co/S6JtPun7 Catch my comment at the end, didn’t get new DAC issue Apr 02, 2012
Insurance Fees, Revealed http://t.co/mLzhpT6V NY State says agents must disclose how compensated & offer to provide full details #woohoo Apr 01, 2012
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Personal
Sinkhole at the bottom of my street after a water main break. The water is more than 5′ deep & and hollowing out the road beneath. Apr 07, 2012
Street is one way, so I took my son who is a Police Explorer 2 talk to the policeman there. They knew each other. It’s a one-way street so + Apr 07, 2012
I asked the policeman (who was short handed) if he would like us 2 block street 2 traffic. Gratefully “yes.” We set up the safety gear. Apr 07, 2012
This is the opposite of last summer where we didn’t have power 4 6+ days, but we had water. We have power but no water. Hope it won’t b long Apr 07, 2012
Three Year Anniversary http://t.co/0HDD3iyD Congratulations, Hunter! @DDInvesting is our internet guide to all distressed debt $$ Apr 04, 2012
LinkedIn Events: Towson University Investment Group – Markets Summit http://t.co/kpgkDTto I’ll b participating on a panel. See you there! $$ Apr 04, 2012
@Frank_McG @volatilitysmile As I said to my wife today, “Take care of your wife, and she will take care of you.” Worked for the last 25 yrs Apr 02, 2012
Miscellaneous
Reprise: The Elfenbein Gold Model http://t.co/r3rHvZw3 @eddyelfenbein at his best, I fully subscribe to his model, reflecting cost of carry Apr 06, 2012
Matzo Ball Soup, Check. iPad, Check. For Passover, Jews Try Techie Seders http://t.co/xUW3izZl I dislike technology in religion. Yuck $$ Apr 06, 2012
Flying Auto Reviving Dreams of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang http://t.co/WixQb8AV Cheap @ $279K, this one might actually work $$ Apr 06, 2012
This discussion has problems because there is no agreed upon definition of what “free will” means.? As with all quest? http://t.co/NoMpZf0U Apr 04, 2012
Here Come Tablets. Here Come Problems. http://t.co/ezFK4Wfu Five common mistakes: a slow rollout is better to get the bugs out. $$ Apr 03, 2012
Gene Maps Are No Cure-All http://t.co/JOLTtWTK Study Warns That DNA Scanning to Predict Disease Can Mislead; ‘Not a Crystal Ball’ $$ Apr 03, 2012
The Mighty Mathematician You?ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/9Qp1NqOB Never heard of her & her impact on physics was as great as that of math Apr 01, 2012
Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys http://t.co/6Dl1gEmJ Maybe there is a public policy reason to close down racetracks, & after that boxing $$ Apr 01, 2012
Energy
Australia LNG Boom Threatened by US Shale Exporters http://t.co/qleN6sVd Cheap US Hydrocarbons invert prior economic certainties $$ #shale Apr 04, 2012
Shale oil: from curse to cure for East Coast refiners? http://t.co/MdlXvjIb US Shale oil is high quality; challenge is delivery2refineries Apr 04, 2012
Repsol Worst Debt Swaps on YPF Seize Threat http://t.co/BewpJA4p Argentina not 2b trusted; would buy $REP bonds on weakness, stock a ?? $$ Apr 04, 2012
Encana in Play as Petronas Seeks Natural Gas http://t.co/SEx832F1 Petronas looking long-term, b/c prospects for natgas pricing r poor $$ Apr 04, 2012
Why high gas prices at the pump? The answer is BICS http://t.co/LopjaesG Brazil, India, China, & Saudi Arabia have increased gasoline demand Apr 03, 2012
The rapidly shifting supply fundamentals in US natural gas http://t.co/myofZrQD Injection cycle starting early w/supplies high already $$ Apr 03, 2012
Rest of the World
Contra: The Buck Stops Here: A BRIC Wall http://t.co/RYykjXXr The BRIC nations r2 statist 2 link 2 gold. Good idea, doesn’t fit the politics Apr 06, 2012
Germany Asked to Forgo $1.3 Billion Deutsche Telekom Payout http://t.co/b8cvOOlB Interesting how Capex constrains euro-telcos, not US $$ Apr 04, 2012
Europe?s Ratings Revenge Founders on Market Reality http://t.co/D3dNu7sF Eurocrats stumble in dark; will return 2 old system; it worked $$ Apr 04, 2012
How A Baby Bust Will Turn Asia’s Tigers Toothless http://t.co/VE78u9tu Economic growth is partially population growth; sterile societies $$ Apr 01, 2012
Swedish High Street Rebound Ends Bets for Riksbank Cuts http://t.co/jYioq0NN A relative bright spot in Europe; having the Knonor helps $$ Apr 01, 2012
Company News
RE: @emergingmoney Never been crazy about firms that perpetually run w/neg working capital. Interesting idea, though. http://t.co/Xx6yFf8v Apr 04, 2012
Optical Delusion? Fiber Booms Again, Despite Bust http://t.co/9QiAmZOH Whouda thunk it? I knew this was getting close, demand 4new fiber Apr 04, 2012
Scarred Avon Is Takeover Target http://t.co/f2T9E7V7 Don’t think $AVP is a good takeover target: toss dist syst or incompatible syst $$ Apr 03, 2012
Technology obsoletes too easily, particularly in hot sectors. Very difficult to get to $1T of?Market Cap. Bit-by-bit? http://t.co/XjGU9ouG Apr 03, 2012
$AAPL ‘s War on Android http://t.co/ILGQVAZD Long, fascinating article; perversely, attempts to enforce patent can invalidate patents $$ Apr 02, 2012
Dude, is There any Value Left in $DELL ? http://t.co/iG5q5iea U know your marketing is stale when people reference advertising >10yrs ago $$ Apr 02, 2012
Housing
The rebound is now http://t.co/l4coNvgt Worth watching, but I would wait until the foreclosures have been mostly cleared, b4 saying bottom Apr 07, 2012
Home Prices Seen Dropping 10% in US on Foreclosures http://t.co/BBjzxKiU Once f/cs clear out, the market will normalize maybe even rise $$ Apr 03, 2012
McClellan on Lumber?s tendency to leading housing stocks http://t.co/cevWyVTs If past is prologue, housing prices are set for another dip $$ Apr 01, 2012
Funds
I’ve owned this in the past, but not now.? It’s been around for 19 years as a CEF — just have to watch the premium/d? http://t.co/XMVs6RBS Apr 06, 2012
Why I Won?t Be Buying TAGS http://t.co/2S8bqcQJ Expense ratio does not include the expenses paid on underlying ETFs owned by $TAGS $$ Apr 04, 2012
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Financial Distress
Reddy Ice Considers Filing for Bankruptcy http://t.co/IgpYjHue Is it just me, or are we seeing an uptick in insolvencies? $$ Apr 04, 2012
Hostess Serves Up New Batch of Cuts http://t.co/fHBXwHes Future failure as people don’t buy so many of the “sugar fat bombs” 4 kids $$ Apr 02, 2012
China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks http://t.co/qpPicyEe China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff http://t.co/w2hSozQL China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
Debating a ?Hard Landing? http://t.co/NMnYk2XX friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a ?hard landing? in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data http://t.co/BMj7ux0T Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012
Market Dynamics
The Nature of a Crowded Trade http://t.co/sf1phJjP A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
A Market Lacking Diversification http://t.co/khXUVjaL Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 http://t.co/FdIZTltW Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? http://t.co/iu0Pw8Ty Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… http://t.co/ZiuzWIo5 Mar 30, 2012
Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors http://t.co/ZrjMCKCz Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance http://t.co/Eh9tHEX6 The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… http://t.co/Dis34ql2 Mar 27, 2012
What Will Replace the 401(k)? http://t.co/miLAuoYc How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke?s Comments http://t.co/D7sORuIU Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 http://t.co/XHwxzxNO Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012
Asset Management
Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients http://t.co/O1ZuMvX8 And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: http://t.co/la8d29my Mar 31, 2012
Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each http://t.co/Yufla6Jk The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM 😉 $$ Mar 31, 2012
The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes http://t.co/ZL7dVpjO Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: http://t.co/zioono6R Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals http://t.co/4LlAExBt Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers http://t.co/4MUyNRYs Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… http://t.co/DJkH6E4W Mar 28, 2012
The Measured Approach to Value http://t.co/XiZOUMOn Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision http://t.co/zJVmCFMa The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption http://t.co/imKDcElR There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
Found PDF slide presentation: http://t.co/0GfhME7m The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern http://t.co/JYpanHTu Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012
Monetary Policy
@kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
@kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
@kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
What Does Bernanke Know? http://t.co/LydpOqk1 Introduces “The Guy Rate” http://t.co/zNVeUYmP Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless http://t.co/NWKHcpCD In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of ?13 Bankers? & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
Housing bubbles and interest rates http://t.co/9TfzMpt2 Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012
Banking & Finance
FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis http://t.co/RQQZfHTz Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
Geithner?s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco http://t.co/Eg9BjcgE Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate http://t.co/HOy8TOof British Bankers? Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
Branson?s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks http://t.co/bPcD8im7 Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh? http://t.co/wK3HyopV Mar 29, 2012
Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? http://t.co/AUEVqxWQ Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street http://t.co/eStszd7i At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
@BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market http://t.co/WYQGAVVx +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe http://t.co/pYWwgLq2 How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
A Bailout by Another Name http://nyti.ms/GRTNMM GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
Banks? preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank http://t.co/wjHW0nyv Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
MF?s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says http://t.co/cYaT9sHy The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ http://t.co/0X8ZQMMH Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
@EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
@EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
The Age of the Shadow Bank Run http://t.co/deJRQGgy Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments http://t.co/yHQZ1r3u Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
Three?s a Crowd http://t.co/KHtbrqpe Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012
Pensions
Brazil?s pension system http://t.co/90O97tQ4 They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
@AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
@AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012
Politics
Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 http://t.co/K0x9go0T Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
The Rejection of Austerity Begins http://t.co/CgWKa9x6 Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% http://t.co/KgW2d76E When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out http://t.co/cMvKHR20 B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
Contra: Court Can?t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law http://t.co/5Yp2o8tB Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
Death Tax Defying http://t.co/FrkL5yLB Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years http://t.co/PCM7ldiG Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012
US Economy
Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red http://t.co/GApb0xie When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
US coal production declines as industry faces further stress http://t.co/l3WpZtDC Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls http://t.co/JsgIdewr In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth http://t.co/vHWs9lwB $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL http://t.co/qQZ1Dsj2 Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations http://t.co/CvptYPhU Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
@valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down http://t.co/eJCEEdvy @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012
Miscellaneous
Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: http://t.co/UHdFL0Eu How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests http://t.co/l8c6MMpA This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees http://t.co/lmq2AoZG Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012
Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllM Mar 24, 2012
The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012
@fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
China
Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
@Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
@Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
Europe
Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
@Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
@Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
Rest of the World
Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
Insurance
@CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
Fixed Income
Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
Exchange Traded Products
“@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
@amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
@amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
Individual Equities
Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
@merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
+1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012
Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
$AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
Money Market Funds
@MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
@MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
Market Dynamics
The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
Politics
Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
@traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
Regulation
Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
@carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
Economics
Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
@The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012
Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
Miscellaneous
@merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
@TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
Central Banking
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?? Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllMMar 24, 2012
?? The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
?? European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
?? Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
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China
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?? Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
?? Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Europe
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?? Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
?? On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
?? @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
?? @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
?? The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
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Rest of the World
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?? Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
?? Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
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Insurance
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?? @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
?? Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
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Fixed Income
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?? Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
?? The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
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Exchange Traded Products
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?? “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
?? RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
?? Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
?? Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
?? @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
?? Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
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Individual Equities
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?? Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
?? @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
?? You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
?? No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012
?? Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
?? Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
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Money Market Funds
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?? @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
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Market Dynamics
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?? The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
?? ?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
?? @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
?? Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
?? Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Politics
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?? Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
?? @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
?? Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
?? The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
?? To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
?? RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
?? Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
?? Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
?? The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
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Regulation
?
?? Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
?? Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
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Economics
?
?? Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
?? Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
?? @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012
?? Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
?? Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Miscellaneous
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?? @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
?? Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
?? Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
?? On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
Norway Faces Housing Bubble as Krone Steals Policy Agenda http://t.co/15hzb0So By cheapening the currency Norway gets an asset bubble $$ Mar 17, 2012
Unintended Consequences http://t.co/eLrKtCJc Sprott suggests that the financial system has a chemical dependency on the Central Banks. $$ Mar 17, 2012
Is the bond market tightening for the Fed? http://t.co/iRSerA8X The bond market is larger than the Fed; they can’t control the curve $$ Mar 17, 2012
Germany Turns Up Pressure on ECB http://t.co/w2yyfvU1 Difficult to see how the liquidity drains out of the ECB ~3 years from now $$ Mar 13, 2012
China central bank news conference on policy, yuan http://t.co/w8cy5K1Z & http://t.co/XcIFAbvb Japan buys Yuan, don’t think it means much Mar 13, 2012
Bond market certainly did not like the FOMC statement. “Don’t worry about energy prices, we got it all under control.” $$ #fuelinginfltion Mar 13, 2012
Investment Banking
Why banks will continue to rip off clients http://t.co/oTT9fd2i Conflicts on Wall Street, especially at $GS. Big guys know that. So what? Mar 17, 2012
Goldman Sachs?s long history of duping its clients http://t.co/2sXmKl0D Tells the story of how $GS foxed its way out of Penn Central CP $$ Mar 17, 2012
The CMBS maturity wall is here http://t.co/GrcEm1KO I remember buying CMBS deals 11-12 years ago. Bullet loans weak if can’t refinance $$ Mar 17, 2012
Goldman Roiled by Op-Ed Loses $2.2B for Shareholders http://t.co/yz0f0oLy A passing matter; of course IBs have conflicts of interest #duh Mar 17, 2012
China
Bo?s Ides of March http://t.co/mnKFU8Zx Not so much a move to the right as a statement against being flashy and self-promoting $$ Mar 17, 2012
Chinese Economy Already in ?Hard Landing,? JPMorgan?s Mowat Says http://t.co/kwFW2Ty6 Cyclical industries will produce less in China 2012. Mar 17, 2012
China’s official admission of slowing commerce activities http://t.co/br7H4D2o When a long trend changes, often moves further than expected Mar 17, 2012
China’s fixed asset investment growth moderating http://t.co/CEl5mZTc “Growth in real estate and manufacturing projects remains steady.” $$ Mar 13, 2012
GMO: Something’s Fishy in China http://t.co/DO8v4w8p Goes through the 10 signs of a bubble; finds that Chinese economy has most of them $$ Mar 13, 2012
US and Europe Move on China Minerals http://t.co/xyGsdkDq WTO ruled against China in January, pressing similar case 17 rare-earth metals Mar 13, 2012
Another call for an end to China driven industrial commodities “super-cycle” http://t.co/VAd5gR0D Investment is way too high & unproductive Mar 13, 2012
Rest of the World
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Sarkozy?s Yield Drop at Risk With Hollande Victory http://t.co/ti25ozdq Surprise, if Hollande cares for poor in France, E-Zone suffers $$ Mar 17, 2012
Saudi Arabia Lifts Curtain on Diplomacy as Syria Killings Spur King to Act http://t.co/H8g8D5nG Favors 85% Sunnis over ruling 15% Alawites Mar 13, 2012
How about those Japanese net-net’s? http://t.co/SAZEcofy Making money in very ill-known small companies in Japan $$ Mar 13, 2012
Portugal Yield at 13% Says Greek Deal Not Unique http://t.co/bPBconfk After Greece, the next places to watch are Portugal & Spain. $$ Mar 13, 2012
Iran-Israel History Suggests a Different Future http://t.co/M1IzxuuB I never knew that Israel sold weapons to Iran in the ’80s. $$ Mar 13, 2012
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Financial Sector
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MetLife CEO’s Stress Test http://t.co/YaVV4GMp $MET doesn’t deserve to be treated as a systemically risky firm. Long liabilities protect Mar 17, 2012
Assurant Falls as California Seeks Rate Cuts http://t.co/d0OcDS09 FD: long $AIZ; this is overrated; ability of the commissioner limited $$ Mar 17, 2012
Felix Salmon At Columbia Journalism School: Don’t Blame Journalists For Failing To Prevent Financial Crisis http://t.co/0LrCwisB true, but Mar 13, 2012
Journalists, even if they understood what was going on in the finl mkts would face a tough time writing warnings in the midst of boom $$ Mar 13, 2012
US Government Agencies Comparing Notes On Algo Feeds http://t.co/15oAxpn9 Little speed advantages w/econ data can lead to big profits #SEC Mar 13, 2012
Marketview:Point of Reference http://t.co/Xlp5jczH “4 the 1st time this yr I can feel the true bullish sentiment among the investing public” Mar 13, 2012
Banks foreclosing on churches in record numbers http://t.co/fR3Ro9CJ Frankly, I am surprised that banks lend to some churches. $$ Mar 13, 2012
Banks Buy Treasuries at Seven Times Pace in 2011 http://t.co/SDKsJIUB What else to do with all the excess liquidity & weak borrowing $$ Mar 13, 2012
US Government-Related
Pension Benefit Costs Cut by Record 43 States, Study Says http://t.co/B8ZRg4gZ State take actions to reduce benefits to active employees Mar 17, 2012
Best Treasury Forecaster Says 10-Year Yield to Drop From Highs http://t.co/ma8YoN4u Don’t be too sure about Treasury rates rising $$ Mar 17, 2012
International Demand for U.S. Assets Rises http://t.co/FwdXqrWH As the E-Zone gets worse, demand for US debt improves. $$ Mar 17, 2012
Investing
Temporary Hedges eventually force Deleveraging http://t.co/0jVSWRzw On Energy Future Holdings, & why predicting the future is tough $$ Mar 17, 2012
Cyclicals persistent underperformance http://t.co/KkJ2q05p Cyclicals started underperforming in August. Relatively they never recovered. $$ Mar 17, 2012
Magnetic Fields http://t.co/S6VYIe5Y Good post. This graph is worth a look: http://t.co/EBhPh6ZN May help explain recent lost decade $$ Mar 13, 2012
Stock Compensation, Tax Law, Financial Reporting and Facebook’s IPO http://t.co/ULyVLNkr Future dilution may pressure $FB shares $$ Mar 13, 2012
A Value Investor’s Take on Shorting http://t.co/cZYueqGH Tactical discipline, not structural, b/c market can go nuts. Can help hedge $$ Mar 13, 2012
Miscellaneous
Considering Bankruptcy? Head to the Mall http://t.co/UvgEArMj Legal services offered for simple situations in mall locations. $$ Mar 13, 2012
How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate http://t.co/g6E4KxV5 I agree inf is understated, but by 1-2%, not 6-8%/yr $$ Mar 09, 2012
Tax Hunt Pushes Global Wealthy Into Offshore Trusts for Children in US http://t.co/l53hjFH1 Many clever ways 2cheat the taxman #thinkahead Mar 07, 2012
How Much Do Income Taxes Affect Our Behavior? http://t.co/mADKt7a7 Answer: not much, but people favor lower marginal tax rates anyway $$ Mar 07, 2012
On Politics, Social Security and Spine http://t.co/N8O1Eu6h @brucekrasting on the Disability Income Trust & what it implies 4 politics $$ Mar 07, 2012
Why Young People Might (Eventually) Like to Buy a House http://t.co/yC9FX7H5 On the low end, this makes sense at present. $$ Mar 06, 2012
Getting Ready to Buy a House http://t.co/6aqzzPmI Megan McArdle notes how low down payments r still prevalent; system not clean @ present $$ Mar 06, 2012
Warren Buffett vs. the profiteers of doom http://t.co/02XgQ9tB Unless the US fails in entire, Buffett will be right & the scaremongers wrong Mar 06, 2012
NACM credit managers’ index trade credit increase http://t.co/LUdFkYTZ Businesses r more confident in extending credit; coincident indicator Mar 04, 2012
@DavidSchawel Then they are having materially better performance than the FHA; I still think housing prices have further to fall on hi end Mar 04, 2012
Your Share of Fannie, Freddie Losses: $1,300 http://t.co/h9KdR5d3 Even considering what they are paying the US in dividends, they lose. $$ Mar 03, 2012
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Federal Reserve
@GonzaloLiraSPG Borrow, not print. Fed becomes huge hedge fund 2 arb risky debt spreads. Not in favor of this, but it is happening in small Mar 09, 2012
Thought experiment: What would happen if the Fed borrowed enough money to buy up all of the MBS, CMBS, ABS, Agys, Corps, Munis, etc? $$ Mar 09, 2012
What the Fed is Considering Doing in Layman’s Terms http://t.co/dXZTMXL2 Levering up, taking more risk in an effort to reduce long yields $$ Mar 09, 2012
Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment http://t.co/AyixImcf Fed is asymmetric, only fights unemployment Mar 08, 2012
http://t.co/DR8SLua2 NY Fed never buys the on-the-run and near the run nominal bonds, does the opposite for TIPS, pushes up implied CPI $$ Mar 07, 2012
Fed?s Money Monopoly Endangers Liberty and Peace http://t.co/TGhcvm8O Unsound money encourage governments 2b graspy & warlike $$ Mar 07, 2012
Central bank policy driving corporate spreads http://t.co/YvV1djQb When the Fed offers cheap financing, risk asset flourish $$ Mar 06, 2012
Woodlands congressman battling Federal Reserve’s power http://t.co/iUiwTimH Inflation only, expand role of Regional Feds; Fisher likes it $$ Mar 04, 2012
The eventual unwinding of QE: why it?s ignored and what it could mean http://t.co/BPRMaGaU The Fed will be reluctant 2 shrink the Bal Sht $$ Mar 03, 2012
Eurozone
Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight http://t.co/0y5znzjH So u can’t get inflation thru debt growth? Mar 09, 2012
Bond And CDS Arbitrage Opportunities? http://t.co/uRDRh59G Sov CDS “cheap” 2 bonds b/c of a lack of trust in the default trigger $$ Mar 09, 2012
Draghi Headache: Inflation Heating Up in Europe http://t.co/RQqvvOiC Draghi raised the 2012 forecasts for inflation to 2.1%-2.7% $$ Mar 08, 2012
Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB http://t.co/trwAlyWm Wise Buba will take pain where ECB wil not. Follow this it will destroy Mar 08, 2012
Goldman?s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners http://t.co/eMzOvs2X When u conspire 2b shady, u work w/the shady, who will cheat u2 $GS $$ Mar 07, 2012
French-German Border Shapes More Than Territoryhttp://nyti.ms/zDuqpi Culture matters. Policy matters. Similar people yield different results Mar 06, 2012
Everyone Loves Mario http://t.co/2sDYYNXh Draghi is popular at present, but this will not end well, b/c bank dependence on the ECB will tell Mar 04, 2012
The optimistic view of Europe http://t.co/xtsVrfrY Rogoff argues that these are the birth pangs of the USE: the United States of Europe $$ Mar 04, 2012
IMF Set to Curb Funds for Greece http://t.co/XvNhtAcm IMF has 2 much exposure to EZ-fringe; could it b global system hit peak debt? $$ Mar 04, 2012
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Economics
An interesting model of asset bubbles http://t.co/cHcFGHht Follows the debt-fueled model of asset bubbles, with momentum tossed in $$ Mar 09, 2012
Model Thinking Notes I from Stanford Class http://t.co/qHD0UCzt Those applying models to political questions predict better than others $$ Mar 09, 2012
Investors Crave a Taste of the Island http://t.co/fjWsoVDR Amazing how reducing deficits and cleaning up finances can bring growth $$ Mar 09, 2012
Cicero quote of the week http://t.co/Y1e6KKYL The budget should b balanced, the Treasury should b refilled, public debt should b reduced… Mar 08, 2012
Kindleberger?s Universal Bubble and Crash Scenario http://t.co/Og2VYsX8 We are overindebted, should we be surprised that we face a crisis? Mar 08, 2012
After 3 years, we?re all hooked on free money http://t.co/oKRDzSPD Low base rates are creating a new kind of inflation, sad but true $$ Mar 08, 2012
China
Contra: China Inflation May Provide Room for Stimulus http://t.co/Qds1uBwx That is, if you can believe the Chinese inflation statistics $$ Mar 09, 2012
Asian banks may b bust; tiger still bites http://t.co/2mW40PMJ Economic consultancy Lombard Street warned China is financial house of cards Mar 08, 2012
According to Credit Suisse, the global commodity demand has peaked http://t.co/GNXsHZwL China cannot increase its demand further $$ Mar 08, 2012
China Life Discount Swells on World Growth Woes http://t.co/Jl27DtCk I still don’t get China Life and its business model; avoid b careful Mar 08, 2012
China needs to enhance ability to win ‘local wars’, Premier says http://t.co/THUVeHVe Dominance of the South China Sea is desired $$ Mar 07, 2012
China?s State of the Union http://t.co/D2E2yaH0 China has fewer options by the day. GDP is shrinking because much production is worthless $$ Mar 04, 2012
+1 $$ RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog ha, newsflash: people whose livlihood depends on strong real estate market say market is strong… Mar 04, 2012
End of The World not nigh, say developers http://t.co/JTDwPtT3 A lot of cross-currents in Chinese property markets, suspect trouble $$ Mar 04, 2012
China?s Politics in Rare Bloom http://t.co/kmDFW8ou A rare season where the hidden politics of China become publicly visible $$ Mar 04, 2012
Miscellaneous
‘Internet-in-a-Suitcase’: The Web Technology That Wants You to Be Free http://t.co/UXTNOHDo Not live yet, but coming 2a revolution near u Mar 09, 2012
Wal-Mart Therapy Tried as Pentagon Copes With Traumatized Troops http://t.co/7YIU2yqJ long $WMT | PTSD? Trips 2 WMT may help, really. $$ Mar 08, 2012
US public schools sell empty classroom seats abroad http://t.co/qTuefNqV Solves a tough problem 4 rural districts w/falling enrollment $$ Mar 08, 2012
US Top Destination for Christian, Buddhist Immigrants, Study Says http://t.co/gZW6T62o Interesting commentary on religion & migration $$ Mar 08, 2012
The Confucius quote is a lot like Hillel’s “Do not do unto others what you would not hav… http://t.co/XplJNuew Mar 07, 2012
RE: @dcrothers This is too important to be left to preschools only. Mothers and fathers must take an active role in t? http://t.co/4je2nZj2 Mar 06, 2012
Markets
Insurers to re-examine risk, capital structure in 2012 – PwC http://t.co/1Cl8bTc1 Low ins co valuations begets low interest for M&A $$ Mar 09, 2012
Contra: Apollo Wants to ?Be the New Bank? in 2012, Co-Founder Rowan Says http://t.co/HjfMo5xx Might work in short-run; dangerous idea $$ Mar 09, 2012
Tactical asset allocation — Another ripoff http://t.co/NVCwvCCQ During bear markets, TAA gains temporary cache as market timing $$ Mar 08, 2012
Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading http://t.co/618YZMAB Most of the time, trading leads to losses, people like the illusion of control Mar 08, 2012
Trade to improve your portfolio http://t.co/fINnnvh1 Features thoughts of those who agree. When will average people listen to the good guys? Mar 08, 2012
The mystery of the vanishing stock trader http://t.co/y0jvQ6F8 Volume is disappearing in Canada. That’s probably healthy; buy Canada $$ Mar 07, 2012
@CflGator My simple solution to all of that is that only hedgers may initiate trades, speculators may not trade with speculators. $$ Mar 07, 2012
Contra: Managed money goes LONG oil http://t.co/SartTMgC In mid-2008, there weren’t as many speculative longs & the price was far higher $$ Mar 07, 2012
Companies Float Up to $20 Billion in Bonds http://t.co/CJTnGiTE If that much is getting digested easily, maybe the corp rally continues Mar 07, 2012
@lcsonka39 @hedgefundinvest I did use the words “if” and “maybe.” I am far enough away that I’m not sure, but I have been through that b4 $$ Mar 07, 2012
US Insurers Face $2 Billion in Claims From Tornadoes, Risk Modeler Says http://t.co/N6vW1uIn I would expect a rough weather year $$ Mar 07, 2012
IBM?s Watson Computer Gets Wall Street Job http://t.co/qP2mlQDZ Bloodless. Soulless. Brilliant. Ultimate Risk Manager or Disaster Creator Mar 07, 2012
Judge: Jefferson County Chapter 9 Case Can Continue http://t.co/MGn2sDTD Remember Ch 9 only gives breathing room, Empee benes relief $$ Mar 06, 2012
Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? http://t.co/FlPMNBXN Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend Mar 06, 2012
How To Make Financial Content http://t.co/NRLLm00B Funny takes from @reformedbroker on how various news organizations write their copy $$ Mar 06, 2012
Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns http://t.co/yDXh8J8C Arnott makes u look at the real economy $$ Mar 06, 2012
Stocks Cheaper Than Any U.S. Peak in 23 Years http://t.co/wZAnn7Ij Key Q: what will profit margins do? Only will 2 use capital is scarce Mar 06, 2012
Milwaukee?s Home-Grown Managers Shun Fads http://t.co/oSzOOjMh My hometown. People there are rational and not given to fads. $$ Mar 06, 2012
Dan Zwirn, the Man Who Fell to Earth http://t.co/NmgWpqRm Grew hedge fund fast, inadequate operational support, scandal, business dies $$ Mar 04, 2012
International (rest of the world)
One Year Later, Japan City Sees Light?in a Long Tunnel http://t.co/3JfbCqWG Too much $$ being tossed at too few people in short-run Mar 09, 2012
Australian vs Canadian property http://t.co/7Q3pdBP1 Argues that Canada is in trouble, Australia in worse shape but a better economy for now Mar 07, 2012
Faros Trading: Yen to Weaken http://t.co/cSAp3Fra & http://t.co/aJkOCcXQ Idea that the yen may weaken is gaining traction $$ Mar 06, 2012
Canadian envoy to Iceland sparks loonie controversy http://t.co/QZfE9Kvi Hey, I would link to the loonie if I could, smart idea $$ Mar 06, 2012
BRIC Investors Losing as Statists Forgo Earnings http://t.co/kuntGmOJ Worrisome trend, but political influence on firms tends 2b cyclical Mar 04, 2012
Why Japan Is Looking Good http://t.co/trw811WG Argues that QE weakens the yen, leading to better corp performance of f low valuation $$ Mar 04, 2012
London Is Eating New York?s Lunch http://t.co/UBEFijF7 London has a greater share of international transactions; New York too regulated $$ Mar 04, 2012
Politics
Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God’ http://t.co/Q0VS1qRV Whom God would destroy, he first makes proud #hubris $$ Mar 07, 2012
Paralyzed Kids Employ Florida Lobbyists With Millions at Stake http://t.co/fmS5UIHu When there r damage caps, pleading 4 special exceptions Mar 07, 2012
Hoping for a deadlocked convention that turns to Huckabee, or someone like him http://t.co/OCRBjpXF Mar 03, 2012
@Nonrelatedsense I do not trust Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. They change positions too easily. I may not like everything about Huckabee+ Mar 04, 2012
@Nonrelatedsense or Ron Paul, but they don’t shift their views as much. Huckabee would be acceptable to both wings of the GOP. $$ Mar 04, 2012
I am considering making this an end-of-the-week feature as a news recap.? Comments?
Financials
BofA?s Clash With Fannie Intensifies as Insurers Reject More Loan Claims http://t.co/fKgxwcVO Originators need to bear UW error results $$ Mar 03, 2012
Life as Libor Traders Knew It Seen as Abusive http://t.co/H5o5cH3G An inside look at the problems of LIBOR. Collusion & marketless numbers Mar 03, 2012
$AIG Earnings an Illusion of a Bend in US Tax Laws http://t.co/GCZHUKsu IRS gives AIG special treatment by allowing it to use NOLs post-BK Mar 03, 2012
You have a good point, and I may reference it when I write this evening, but valuations have compressed for all insur? http://t.co/BRTuHnvf Mar 01, 2012
Fannie, Freddie and the $180 billion hole http://t.co/Lnoh7VPH F&F transferred wealth to early investors from taxpayers & late investors $$ Feb 25, 2012
Make losses and prosper, AIG edition http://t.co/EYykmbmZ Hey Q: how much $$ will $AIG make in the future in order to not pay taxes? $$ Feb 25, 2012
Berkshire Hathaway
Contra: Warren Buffett on Investing http://t.co/OH0dQxXP Buffett has not been a deep value investor for 30 years; this article misses it $$ Mar 02, 2012
+1 RT @valueprax: Thoughts On Mergers, Acquisitions And Conglomeration From Rothbard And Buffett (@AlephBlog, $BRK) http://t.co/khZH5Uiq Mar 01, 2012
The Truthiness of Berkshire’s Performance http://t.co/5iSsrAHL Don’t think Buffett anticipated the P/B squeeze in insurance stocks. $$ Mar 01, 2012
Buffett Plans More Solar Bonds After Topaz Deal http://t.co/pjrAKQub Buffett doesn’t give suckers an even break, no guarantees on solar $$ Mar 01, 2012
RE: @TheStreet_News When I wrote for RealMoney, I was often critical of Buffett, but I have shifted.? He is a great e? http://t.co/r4z14uUC Feb 29, 2012
When you think you made a great purchase (Warren Buffett edition) http://t.co/ME9RwqFf I was surprised to learn about this $BRKa sub also $$ Feb 28, 2012
Home Schooling
Question of priorities, could conserve RT @ReformedBroker: “How am I supposed to live on $350,000 a year?” – you’re right, kill yourself $$ Mar 01, 2012
@ReformedBroker Have his wife call my wife; can save lots of $$ if u go from private school 2 homeschool, & it is easier than 1 would expect Mar 01, 2012
@ReformedBroker The downside is that it is a lot of work, but not hard work, and the challenge is controlling your children frequently $$ Mar 01, 2012
@merrillmatter I know you’re kidding, but the mothers I know who homeschool would be fearsome in the business world were they redirected $$ Mar 01, 2012
Municipal Finance, or lack thereof
If Stockton Is Broke, Then Why Isn?t San Diego? http://t.co/dzCE9FjX Govt Unions fight to keep benefits govts shouldn’t have granted $$ Mar 03, 2012
Pension Pain Mounts, Low Rates Boost Liabilities http://t.co/NZndpR5g More evil results of Fed policy substituting debt 4 organic growth $$ Mar 01, 2012
To Pay New York Pension Fund, Cities Borrow From It First http://t.co/feOXK8E3 Shell game at best; net contributions needed to DB plans $$ Feb 29, 2012
Raiding the coffers http://t.co/5h2Fx5ZL State pension plans r borrowing from their pension plans 2 fund their own pension contributions Feb 29, 2012
North Korea
@LSilverspar You made me laugh, yes, all of these have impacts on us… but given their counterfeiting, some action should be taken $$ Feb 29, 2012
@dpinsen And access of the Dear Leader to his favorite Scotch… hitting him where it hurts. 😉 $$ Feb 29, 2012
@dpinsen Agree, bigtime. We got them to the bargaining table last time by cutting off their financial access to the rest of the world. $$ Feb 29, 2012
Then once NK starts to counterfeit it, go back to new $50s & $100s; make their life tough. Feb 29, 2012
How the U.S. Could Pressure North Korea Tomorrow: Quit the $100 Bill http://t.co/DkXUZsy7 This is worth doing, and create a $75 bill $$ Feb 29, 2012
Eurozone
Greek PSI exchange summary – an offer you can’t refuse http://t.co/K4OUOqm3 Yes, we all voluntarily give up 70% of the value of r claims $$ Mar 03, 2012
Greek Crisis May Test the Value of Swaps http://t.co/hG27iIak ISDA wimps out and does not declare a credit event; will destroy Sov CDS mkt Mar 03, 2012
A Primer on the Euro Breakup http://t.co/OB2sdwzB Explains why the Euro will break up, at least at the fringe &y this should not surprise $$ Mar 02, 2012
ECB Free Money May Carry a Cost http://t.co/g1bNl281 Makes governments relax & ignore structural problems, & banks arb the ECB $$ Mar 01, 2012
ECB Allots ?529.5 Billion in Long-Term Refinancing Operation http://t.co/8o0OE7XO Higher than anticipated takeup of cheap funding $$ Feb 29, 2012
More signs of Draghi’s “stabilization” http://t.co/zdFol9Vj euro area banks show material tightening conditions in the banking system $$ Feb 28, 2012
On PIGS on Drugs http://t.co/VtOZYdwt European states owe ?12-15 billion to the pharma industry; they stop paying suppliers b4 cutting staff Feb 28, 2012
http://t.co/wQYFVFWH “Amused – Italian banks figured it out. An hour before LTRO results, 5 Italian banks issued & bought their own bonds.” Feb 28, 2012
Europe Gets Ready for Round 2 of Bank Loans http://t.co/N0rpX9O7 Heightening the dependence of stressed banks and govts on the ECB. $$ Feb 28, 2012
You may want to hold off on buying that Italian villa http://t.co/EP92Zd4m 66.5% of agents report a fall in housing prices during 4Q $$ Feb 28, 2012
@japhychron Can’t think of anyone, btw, there is a theory that a decent # of stressed banks used LTRO 2 buy in their own debt… $$ Feb 28, 2012
LTRO programs’ impact on sovereign bond purchases by banks (past and present) http://t.co/ffbNfY3B Indirect way of financing fringe govts $$ Feb 28, 2012
Mario Draghi reveals the Grand Plan http://t.co/Dal4wEDo & http://t.co/KNj9mhgx Good austerity results in freer mkts, more growth $$ Feb 28, 2012
Merkel torn by conflicting pressures in Greek vote http://t.co/0iCZV4kQ Any other Firefox users noticing that Reuters pages format badly? $$ Feb 27, 2012
@moorehn Good piece, I think many will benefit @soberlook has been writing some good stuff also http://t.co/tAlkFpXR & http://t.co/jcLBc04c Feb 24, 2012
China
China?s Billionaire Lawmakers Make US Peers Look Like Paupers http://t.co/d2haqyDc China’s lawmakers r absolutely more wealthy than US peers Mar 01, 2012
China May Double Rare Earth Exports as Demand Rebounds http://t.co/MaDQX4rc Quite a change from prior, makes u wonder why they change… $$ Mar 01, 2012
Why China Will Have an Economic Crisis http://t.co/xn3W2Wxa This is getting very mainstream, makes me think I could be wrong. $$ Feb 29, 2012
Fortress? Michael Novagratz on Lessons from OWS, and China http://t.co/yTSqXqYR Cronyism raises the odds of domestic violence in China $$ Feb 25, 2012
Evil Overlords or Lucky Devils: The Men Who Rule Hong Kong http://t.co/BEqw7Z0Z Long but interesting, re the influential wealthy in HK $$ Feb 25, 2012
Credit
Junk Isn?t http://t.co/olYEeOGe Spreads are down and investor interest is up; this is my biggest intermediate-term concern at present. $$ Mar 02, 2012
Junk vs. Loans http://t.co/JbIHAFtt & http://t.co/tccF8pML Loan participation funds cheap compared 2 junk, but downside still there. Feb 29, 2012
The rating agencies are the farm teams for credit analysts, in the same way that Value Line is for stock analysts.? A? http://t.co/Qfj1lYhu Feb 29, 2012
Upcoming Book of Josh Brown
I invite you to read his website http://t.co/Qom9t2Zy .? He writes a lot of clever stuff there.? One of ? http://t.co/r34pi1pR Feb 29, 2012
Confessions of a Reformed Stockbroker http://t.co/B4dkJ5XI Another preview article 4 @reformedbroker ‘s forthcoming book $$ Feb 29, 2012
Personal Investing
Dividends Rise Again http://t.co/gT6AcZXq Their coffers bulging with cash, companies are increasing the once out-of-favor common dividend $$ Mar 03, 2012
IRAs Get Sexier http://t.co/XVG5u56g All manner of illiquid assets can b crammed in2 an IRA if you have a friendly custodian $$ #beware Mar 03, 2012
Treasury yields and credit spreads divergence is not sustainable http://t.co/LvfHNU4t Ordinary times credit spreads r inverse 2 Tsy yields Mar 02, 2012
The Myth of Commodity Diversification http://t.co/ZoMhgv7M A defense of why gold is a true diversifier of portfolios versus commodities $$ Feb 29, 2012
Conflict of All Conflicts http://t.co/RgZmO3nv from @reformedbroker I rarely get angry, but this one annoyed me; skewed incentives $$ Feb 29, 2012
Accounting rules (yes)
Standard Setters Strain 2 Avert More Revenue-Recognition Angst http://t.co/jRlnmLPa Industry-specific revenue policies r better; reject IFRS Mar 03, 2012
Another “Case” of Terrible Decisions Borne of Terrible Accounting Rules http://t.co/wb2PB5BF Don’t compromise on revenue recognition. $$ Feb 29, 2012
Mark-to-Market Pensions Show Brutal Year http://t.co/NhwMePZG Some companies are biting the bullet and moving pension acctg to mark2mkt $$ Feb 25, 2012
Corporate News
Natural Gas Renaissance Sparks Favorable Chemical Reaction http://t.co/G0QHxkVu Petrochemicals benefit from cheap fracking feedstock $$ Mar 02, 2012
Apple Dividend May Return Part of $98B Cash http://t.co/FzFTTr2X If $AAPL can’t use all of its cash then give it to shareholders $$ Feb 29, 2012
@PlanMaestro Operating profitability is poor, and given their business mix, their P/B is fair for a company with a 5% anticipated ROE. Feb 29, 2012
@ToddSullivan Now if they can achieve a decent ROE, and not have weak reserving… I was wrong regarding Maiden Lane when I wrote about it. Feb 29, 2012
CNA: A P&C Insurance Turnaround Story http://t.co/WRwhf5sV A fair analysis of $CNA, worthy for insurance investors 2 read. O, he cites me $$ Feb 29, 2012
One thing that is not mentioned frequently is that shale gas production profiles tend to peak and decline rapidly. Th? http://t.co/flnQvRwt Feb 28, 2012
?Hope Phase? for Stocks May End in Tears Again http://t.co/z6Sbfu7n Markets anticipate sustained US growth & soft landing for China $$ Feb 28, 2012
Confronting a Law Of Limits http://t.co/kIFgxwk8 How does $AAPL grow into its valuation? Especially where obsolescence moves rapidly? $$ Feb 25, 2012
Miscellaneous
FDA Warns on Statins http://t.co/7K37iJVe Every drug has side effects, w/statins it may be diabetes. Be wary, & avoid all drugs if u can $$ Mar 01, 2012
Seriously? Any reason to avoid it? RT @kasie: Days since Mitt Romney has taken questions from the national traveling press corps: 17. Feb 25, 2012
Slavery should be an issue where liberals and conservatives could agree for policy, and maybe apply the Palantir technology 2 root it out $$ Feb 25, 2012
Fishing as Slaves on the High Seas http://t.co/0Bakkir5 Another place where slavery still exists; sex trade, Dubai construction & more $$ Feb 25, 2012
Why Doctors Die Differently http://t.co/e3rnOTz8 Careers in medicine taught them the limits of treatment & the need to plan for the end Feb 25, 2012
‘Japanese Madoff’ Flagged http://t.co/U7vgrOap Industry Newsletter Warned in 2009 About Firm’s ‘Unnaturally Stable Returns’ $$ #ponzi Feb 25, 2012
Killer App http://t.co/kUT8X9Ji Have a bunch of Silicon Valley geeks at Palantir Technologies figured out how to stop terrorists? Palantir. Feb 25, 2012
At 35, I was a devoted Husband and Dad of 5 children, with the oldest being 7 years old.? Nominally, I was the invest? http://t.co/AYUuRMsi Feb 25, 2012
War with Iran:Would you go bankrupt for your country? http://t.co/d5rVA9Ww War does not stimulate the economy, contrary 2 popular belief $$ Feb 25, 2012
Economy
Is Japan Doomed? http://t.co/qZev2jSA What? There’s a free lunch where the Govt can borrow indefinitely? NO! Cash flows about 2 shift b wary Mar 02, 2012
Core inflation is once again above expectations http://t.co/uxjbXofE There is inflation coming; stagflation even; bad policy begins to bite Mar 02, 2012
A Wake-Up Call for Japanese Watchdogs http://t.co/r1JMhnM2 Bigger than MF Global, smaller than Madoff; how do you say Ponzi in Japanese? Feb 28, 2012
Oil denominated in EU currencies is at record highs; demand destruction likely http://t.co/KwWkFvJM Wonder where breaking point is? $$ Feb 28, 2012
Gundlach warns U.S. stock market vulnerable http://t.co/g8hKrNSJ Investors concede rally almost over; still expect to earn coupon-> danger Feb 28, 2012
Architecture Billings Index indicated expansion in January http://t.co/nZV1OCdw leading indicator 4 new Commercial Real Estate investment $$ Feb 28, 2012
Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower http://t.co/q1vpz9dh @reformedbroker interview previews his book: http://t.co/Yigg2sEE $$ Feb 24, 2012
Why CLO managers continue to struggle http://t.co/a13j8jVG Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012
My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter http://t.co/VOvbqab3 DIstressed bond mgrs get itchy in bull phase & buy new junk @ par Feb 24, 2012
SEC IFRS Plan Endorsement http://t.co/8xguvs2G IFRS is not worth giving up comparability or sovereignty for. Project is a total loser. $$ Feb 24, 2012
Very cool, congrats RT @Finovate: @AlphaClone to offer Alternative Alpha ETF from U.S. Bancorp http://t.co/srufb3qd Feb 23, 2012
SEC May Ticket Speeding Traders http://t.co/oNCbF7pa Worthy of an experiment like the kind they did to study the “uptick rule” $$ Feb 23, 2012
AQR?s Aaron Brown on Red-Blooded Risk http://t.co/ZM7hn5P4 When I was a bond mgr, could sense some aspects of risk listening 2 broker’s tone Feb 23, 2012
The Volcker Rule is not going to bring your house back http://t.co/ADKMABfE Prop trading was not a leading cause of the financial crisis. $$ Feb 23, 2012
Pimco Said to Quit Mortgage Bond Group http://t.co/YsQZs1IE Feels wrong parties (their clients) r paying 4 bad servicing,instead of banks Feb 23, 2012
?If you want, I can dig up an old research piece on analyst coverage — there are basically 3 factors that explain 70? http://t.co/tBinshJJ Feb 21, 2012
Stressed VAR is still a “protractor in the jungle” http://t.co/GRGgwvsd Risk management sh/not b done w/central measures but stress tests $$ Feb 21, 2012
How One Company Teaches Employees the ABCs of Finance http://t.co/fqO19foq More companies should do this, they would b more profitable. $$ Feb 18, 2012
Gross Fund at 66% Premium Shows Pimco Allure in Quest for Yield http://t.co/LY8Rv4SS Yield illusion distracts many investors. Avoid it. $$ Feb 17, 2012
Read:Which three of DOL’s new 401(k) rules represent the biggest land mines for financial advisors and plan sponsors? http://t.co/ZVoMPmQu Feb 15, 2012
The 400% Man http://t.co/nrRhYIZl Wish I could meet some of his disappointed investors who came to kick the tires and were disappointed. Feb 15, 2012
Contra:Foot-Dragging on IFRS Decision Could Strip SEC of Power http://t.co/VNUFhWD5 The US could lose representation on IASB. Good, drop out Feb 14, 2012
Notes from iGlobal’s Global Distressed Investing Summit: Part 2 http://t.co/9iOty0Iz Leveraged loan market seems to be in decent shape $$ Feb 14, 2012
Pimco: $25 Billion Foreclosure Deal to Hit Pensions Harder Than Banks http://t.co/DKFtMI9B Gives MBS buyers a reason 2 sue originators $$ Feb 13, 2012
Missing at MF: $1.6 Billion http://t.co/QSUMYbNO Included for the 1st time is roughly $700 million in client money residing in the UK $$ Feb 13, 2012
Stockbrokers: A Guide to Private Placement Due Diligence http://t.co/tbwtu6Jy Illiquid investments are ways to cheat average people. $$ Feb 11, 2012
Why illiquid? Can’t recover the commission otherwise.? Can deceive people that their investment is worth more than it? http://t.co/cYjvUhWx Feb 11, 2012
Market Strategy
Jim Stack was right, and he?s still bullish http://t.co/GfEqtTKl Basically a forward P/E plus momentum argument, & lack of sharp falls $$ Feb 24, 2012
S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper on Record Profits http://t.co/DWPGz5Y2 Makes a P/E argument; profit mrgns will eventually revert, may take a while Feb 23, 2012
The dangers of dividend-paying stocks http://t.co/FymTmAAi Hint: they are stocks. No maturity date, no certain cash flow, low BK priority $$ Feb 23, 2012
Falkenblog: Low Vol Commodity Timing Strategy http://t.co/M4FFRoCx Low volatility seems to work in a large number of areas, this is one $$ Feb 23, 2012
Retro Investing?Look Back to Get Ahead http://t.co/vYiPCu9J The 50s, w/post-WWII financial repression, recurs as a current investing meme $$ Feb 22, 2012
The Intelligent Investor: Are Index Funds Messing Up the Markets? http://t.co/VAoFtksw May also be traders following each other $$ Feb 21, 2012
If history is any indication, high dividend stock outperformance should continue http://t.co/C5GaWmW8 Uses 40s & 50s as analogy $$ Feb 20, 2012
Breakout or consolidation? http://t.co/GTSkBjIT Many market seem to be at inflection points. Which way will they go? Wildcards: EZone, China Feb 20, 2012
RE: @alea_ Interesting analysis.? I would be wary of teasing too much out of the cluster analysis of sector correlati? http://t.co/zirdOJ8v Feb 18, 2012
MORGAN STANLEY: January Exhibited This Tell-Tale Sign Of A Market Top http://t.co/IQqidpUE When everything rises at once, look out! $$ Feb 18, 2012
Apple Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks http://t.co/2dgfjfPq Earnings quality has declined, and so has the PE multiple $$ Feb 18, 2012
@ampressman Common summary stat 4 acctg quality 4 $AAPL Net Operating Accruals / Assets, has been deteriorating 4 last 7 years + Feb 18, 2012
@ampressman $AAPL acctg used to be very conservative, now modestly liberal by that statistic. It’s a bad direction, not a bad position, yet Feb 18, 2012
Should the Rich Invest Like Colleges? http://t.co/M9OaPEPA Better question: what are your goals? Do you have an infinite horizon? $$ Feb 18, 2012
High Yield Bonds as Equity Indicator | The Reformed Broker http://t.co/OXUtZrWG Meet my friends & former colleagues Ed Meigs & Sean Slein $$ Feb 17, 2012
When Earnings Slow, Focus on Big Cap, Quality http://t.co/zjD3RPKA High quality is the place to be at present, credit cycle shifting some $$ Feb 16, 2012
A Lesser Known Indicator http://t.co/8oivTJFl Cash enters market through IPOs, employee grants, & exits through cash buyouts, buybacks $$ Feb 16, 2012
Parabolas have 2 end somewhere $$ RT @ReformedBroker: $AAPL sold off because people were getting impatient with how slowly it was moving up. Feb 15, 2012
FPA Capital?s Bryan Beats Peers Embracing Oil Volatility http://t.co/7ebuGmrb A clever focus on absolute retruns, w/a long horizon $$ Feb 15, 2012
Paulson Gives Activism a Go http://t.co/dkHb3cht Not as easy as it looks w/ $HIG. Acctg may not fairly capture variable liabilities $$ Feb 15, 2012
RE: @SoberLook DB hedges its bets.? Average years rarely happen in high yield, they are either good or bad. http://t.co/0C51uulu Feb 14, 2012
THE 1987 MYTH?. http://t.co/mHSU4nM3 ?Illusion of stability within disequilibrium? Very well said, in one short phrase. $$ Feb 14, 2012
America Inc. Faces Margin Stall http://t.co/RbqvqbT9 US companies have begun to see rising costs eat into the bottom line. Finally. $$ Feb 13, 2012
Hulbert: Insiders Selling at Heavy Pace http://t.co/qOPk2cbY Just another straw blowing in the wind, but insiders usually have good sense $$ Feb 10, 2012
Greece
Greek PSI outcomes tree: credit event probability at 93% http://t.co/jcLBc04c Clever grraphic shows high likelihood of Gk CDS triggering. $$ Feb 23, 2012
The market is now pricing in Greek sovereign CDS trigger http://t.co/w5vJ42Fa Upfront prices for Greek CDS moving up $$ Feb 22, 2012
Despite Pact, Unease Lingers for Greece http://t.co/Urp7mmag “Many Problems Remain Even Under Best-Case Scenarios” Shrink, shrink… $$ Feb 22, 2012
Greek Rescue Is Not the End of the Story http://t.co/IOCVcCTb Won’t save Greece on its own & there r other fringe nations 2 deal with $$ Feb 20, 2012
ECB Greek Plan May Hurt Bondholders While Triggering Debt Swaps http://t.co/Aya9urfV ECB may get better treaqtment than private holders $$ Feb 20, 2012
So, what would your plan for Greece be? http://t.co/SAd2f28O Play the game, and let Keynes sneer @ u as u attempt 2 solve the impossible $$ Feb 18, 2012
Greek Economy Shrinking Rapidly http://t.co/VzXi375M And it may shrink more rapidly depending on what the rest of Europe does $$ Feb 14, 2012
Eurozone
ECB’s Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets http://t.co/r0ZCmYpb Banks become dependent on ECB, bank bondholders more subordinated $$ Feb 24, 2012
European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash http://t.co/Re5TjLR5 ?There is a ?lose-lose? air around the ECB?s auction next week,? $$ Feb 24, 2012
The Eurozone should be prepared for a new government in France http://t.co/qGFPC20S And that govt will be more hostile to current actions $$ Feb 22, 2012
Spain Sinks Deeper Into Periphery on Debt Rise http://t.co/wkuef6tS As debts grow higher, the probability of escape gets lower. $$ Feb 22, 2012
Iron Lady Merkel Bucks German Street on Greek Aid http://t.co/Wc95xI47 Strategy working 4 now, but what if colleagues lose their seats? $$ Feb 20, 2012
Moody?s Cuts European Sovereigns http://t.co/GvJuES7t Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta all cut. France & UK -> neg outlook Feb 15, 2012
Unlisted in euroland http://t.co/AQQrJMUf Didn’t catch this in Jan. Private bonds can offered 2 ECB as collateral; helps French banks $$ Feb 13, 2012
The Well-off Fringe Nations
Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness http://t.co/P4BH8HKN If the debt problem is not severe, austerity. If it is severe (Iceland) default Feb 22, 2012
Nordic Currencies Stung in Crisis http://t.co/teorxG1P Much of the world, looking for a store of value, drive fringe currencies up $$ Feb 21, 2012
Canada housing market: poised 4 ‘severe correction,’ George Athanassakos says http://t.co/05kaVIAD Canada is used to the boom/bust cycle $$ Feb 21, 2012
@joshuademasi You’re right, but most of the fringe currencies are facing the same dilemma; who to favor, consumers vs exporters, etc… $$ Feb 21, 2012
Israel Safest as Investors Discount War Threat http://t.co/3oXTlILj Well-capitalized banks & balanced economy w/much high tech $$ #warrisk Feb 20, 2012
A hedge fund bets big on a Canadian mega quarry http://t.co/k7OZBC9u Property rights r tough here. What if an existing farmer tried this? $$ Feb 18, 2012
Australia?s Gillard Urged to Increase Mortgage Purchases http://t.co/ylsCuvq4 A mistake, far better to let the market fail. $$ Feb 17, 2012
You’re right, reminds me of an old piece I wrote: http://t.co/XkgO7z7A Thanks $$ RT @joshuademasi: The 5 stages of USD grieving ! Feb 15, 2012
Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S., Europe http://t.co/X9jRPy6q Wealthy Chinese know their govt, thus the need for flight $$ Feb 22, 2012
China?s FDI and Trade Outlook Horrible Says Commerce Spokesperson http://t.co/LIlvmxIL Hard 4 Comm Party 2command domestic consumption up $$ Feb 18, 2012
‘Mother of all bubbles’ will pop China stocks: GMO http://t.co/OMENKZOI Low prob: China successfully navigating soft landing out of a bubble Feb 18, 2012
China’s excess exports turn negative http://t.co/CiLgTKqC Key Q: how will China grow its economy by stimulating domestic consumption? $$ #uh Feb 18, 2012
Too many bearish on China, but I’m bearish also.? What to do? Seek out China bulls.? If their arguments sound dumb, d? http://t.co/vrhUIdsh Feb 17, 2012
The Silent Victims of the U.S.-China Currency War http://t.co/6DXAnE3m Smaller nations get caught in crossfire of competitive devaluation $$ Feb 17, 2012
China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015 http://t.co/5Va8kiLr I think it take some losses before DC takes this seriously. $$ Feb 17, 2012
China?s Tenuous Hold on Peace http://t.co/dOFr68tL Tibet is restive, China blames its problems on the economic mismanagement of foreigners Feb 14, 2012
Glimpses of a Chinese Town Under Lockdown http://t.co/AFoW0zsM some reporters managed to get there to document the heavy security presence Feb 14, 2012
Liu Mingkang Outlines the Reforms China needs to Undertake http://t.co/L0cXMoIf Will the communist party willingly reduce its power in China Feb 13, 2012
Japan
Japanese Equities Herald Return to Inflation http://t.co/rxlt5OhI If Japan bond market breaks, ructions will be felt the world over. $$ Feb 23, 2012
Energy imports will pressure Japan’s trade deficit http://t.co/lieDm3T4 But, Japan has a current account surplus from its net foreign assets Feb 23, 2012
Japan Suggests No Quick G-20 Deal on IMF Funding http://t.co/RZYF5EB2 non-European members of the IMF waiting on the Europeans to act $$ Feb 22, 2012
Tokyo Small-Caps Set for Longest Win Streak http://t.co/mD3ySrzh Unnoticed but true, look @ this CEF: http://t.co/VcdMQDxL FD: long $JOF Feb 22, 2012
Yen Slumps After Japan Expands Bond Buying http://t.co/L6yImwzC Competitive currency devaluations driving Forex $$ #beggarthyneighbor Feb 15, 2012
Iran
Japan Refiners Said to Stall on Iran Deals http://t.co/uEq1DYtb Life is harder on those that need Iranian oil, like India, China, Japan $$ Feb 21, 2012
Iran Says It Loaded Locally Made Fuel to Nuke http://t.co/6HkMaEFj Not sure I believe this, but if it’s true, the Israelis will know 😉 $$ Feb 15, 2012
Iran presses ahead with dollar attack http://t.co/Hd4Qtnvz Unlikely to work, but it’s all they can do w/oil transport shut down $$ Feb 14, 2012
Letter Writers Break Iranian Taboo http://t.co/M3NMfmk1 They are so desperate that they write the Ayatollah and criticize conditions. $$ Feb 14, 2012
Record Redemptions Loom Amid Akbank $1.3 Billion Loan Talks http://t.co/x5iDTSwE Never knew Turkish firms financed w/so much Short debt $$ Feb 18, 2012
Chavez Missing $10 Billion a Month by Curbing State Oil Investment http://t.co/uTG1Z8d8 PDVSA falls behind Pemex? How low can you go? $$ Feb 15, 2012
Ch?vez Opposition Faces Hard Election http://t.co/YBWi9PaW Chavez controls media & oil wealth; tough for Capriles, but he can still win. Feb 14, 2012
Gunfights in Saudi Arabia Show Spread of Tensions http://t.co/dNxhg2ij Shia in Saudi Arabia fight the govt. Biggest split in Mideast $$ Feb 14, 2012
The Real Reasons the Rich Are Moving Cash to the Caymans http://t.co/gh7d85ZA Litigation risk, and US political risk; diversify yr govts Feb 13, 2012
Federal Reserve / Monetary Policy / Fiscal Policy
Those believing the Fed is on hold for the next 3 years will be in for a rude awakening http://t.co/VYggm431 FF futures & TIPS betray mkt $$ Feb 24, 2012
Exported Inflation to Return Home, but When and in What Form http://t.co/UHT61w4Y The Fed will find it hard to shrink its balance sheet $$ Feb 24, 2012
Healthcare expenses will overwhelm the US federal budget http://t.co/lLUABMYy Suspect a deal will b driven 2 reduce benefits somehow $$ Feb 23, 2012
?Fiat Money and Collective Corruption? http://t.co/lRAa2xnG Hard money would help, the bigger problem is light regulation of banks/credit $$ Feb 23, 2012
Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors http://t.co/UtozNgly Q: Why? 2 avoid bank influence, or 2 hide bank influence? $$ Feb 21, 2012
The Race To Debase In All Its Glory http://t.co/rPtS9EqD Balance sheets of major central banks expand rapidly $$ #racetothebottom Feb 21, 2012
Wealthy Enriched by Double-Dipping U.S. Plan http://t.co/YtGTfakC Long article describing unethical use of SBA $$ . #eliminatetheSBA Feb 21, 2012
Over-regulated America http://t.co/uMKtg2W0 The home of laissez-faire is being suffocated by excessive and badly written regulation $$ Feb 18, 2012
Geithner: GOP Walked Away From Tax Overhaul – Bloomberg http://t.co/yupPqVeO Articles like this indicate another stalemate in the making $$ Feb 17, 2012
Potomac Divide Shows Foreclosures Thru Courts Slow Home-Price Recovery http://t.co/kilW75GM MD has slow foreclosures, housing mkt lags VA Feb 16, 2012
Sober Look: Regulate it all, ask questions later http://t.co/qnpfakfJ New regulations reduce the liquidity of the corporate bond market $$ Feb 16, 2012
FHA is almost broke. What will DC do when it goes critical? RT @HousingWire: FHA defaults up for ninth straight month http://t.co/TSZFHCeD Feb 15, 2012
Pentagon May Oust Troops Involuntarily to Meet Reductions in Budget Plan http://t.co/VnY4At7J Tough time 2b let go if you r a veteran $$ Feb 14, 2012
What a surprise! $$ RT @pdacosta: Bernanke’s big housing speech makes no mention of the Fed’s regulatory laxity in run-up to the crisis. Feb 10, 2012
Bonds
Contra: Should Mortgage Rates Even Be Lower? http://t.co/lODEFb1P Mortgages do not price off of Tsys, but swaps and bank bond yields $$ Feb 22, 2012
Wall Street Crowds Into Trader Joe?s http://t.co/dHZT83VK CMBS mkt getting heated; loans linked 2 retail rose to 45% 4 bonds sold in 2011 Feb 22, 2012
?Have a lot of friends who have lost a lot of money waiting for $TLT to break. FD: long TLT http://t.co/Lw6Rqn02 Feb 21, 2012
A $360 trillion confidence trick http://t.co/Kar0f3Cz I have argued that LIBOR should be based off of binding offers to borrow/lend $$ Feb 14, 2012
http://t.co/VOIG2gUk W/TIPS NY Fed concentrates on the long on-the-run & nearby, w/nominals opposite. Makes implied inflation look higher $$ Feb 10, 2012
Muni Bonds
Stockton, CA, to Weigh First Steps Toward Bankruptcy http://t.co/d2lsCmx8 Start of negotiations to reduce emplyee pensions & healthcare $$ Feb 24, 2012
Good piece, thx RT @munilass: Evaluating Chapter 9 Bankruptcy for City of Detroit: Reality Check or Turnaround Option? http://t.co/PxWo5qHA Feb 21, 2012
Yes. http://t.co/4DUVVTKi $$ RT @BarbarianCap: @munilass isn’t this the muni book that @AlephBlog reviewed very favorably a few days ago? Feb 20, 2012
Pensions
New Rules Wreak Havoc forRetirement-Plan Sponsors http://t.co/HzHWTTtL I would expect rules to be modified, else headaches 4 DC plans $$ Feb 24, 2012
@BarbarianCap Looking at the RFP, that is one of the few things *not* under consideration, pity too, because it is more important. #DumbOCPP Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap The audit is a test of methods and data, not assumptions. That’s actually pretty normal unless you an assumptions outlier $$ Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap I’ve said it many times b4, if life insurers have 2b conservative in accounting, DB plans s/b more so, but they r less so $$ Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap Some cases, deals will be driven to reduce benefits, depends on state/muni laws, Ch 9 allowable; not protected by ERISA/PBGC Feb 23, 2012
Stocks
The Capabilities Premium in M&A http://t.co/9CdZIugk Long piece that explains why some mergers work; they aid organic growth & r small $$ Feb 22, 2012
Elemental to Raise $1.7 Billion Next Year to Mine Potash http://t.co/w7GNsA2H Potash pricing has been volatile lately, cross-currents $$ Feb 22, 2012
Gamestop to J.C. Penney Shut Facebook Stores: Retail http://t.co/zSui0fCf $FB may have a more difficult time w/retail than some expect $$ Feb 20, 2012
Hewlett-Packard’s Message: We’ve Been Here All Along http://t.co/vU8piGMt Note: long $HPQ . HPQ definitely sounds more certain now. $$ Feb 16, 2012
Icahn Pushing CVR?s Sale Means $1 Billion Gain for Shareholders http://t.co/TfBKGErf What refiner wants more capacity now & fertilizer? $$ Feb 16, 2012
Hedge Funds Switch Positions, While Paulson Switches Investing Style http://t.co/MznmLhci Issue w/ $HIG is value of Variable product biz $$ Feb 15, 2012
Miscellaneous
The Control Revolution And Its Discontents http://t.co/FY4XgPde There is a “sweet spot” for market efficiency, too much & things get chaotic Feb 24, 2012
The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign http://t.co/Ra1Iz65H Fall in seller confidence & decline in new distressed inventory Feb 23, 2012
Spring Lambing in UK Turns Deadly as New Virus Kills Young http://t.co/PrO4neT1 Infects pregnant sheep, cows and goats, 5% infection rate Feb 22, 2012
Midwest Farmland Prices Update for the Year 2011 http://t.co/se9DbEgB Good discussion after a good article; things r getting a little bubbly Feb 22, 2012
Finding Treasures Among Insurer’s Wreckage http://t.co/jiFZiydE Never bot Atl Mutual’s Surplus Notes, but historical curiosities, wow $$ Feb 18, 2012
@StockTwits Insurance is boring, but antiquities at the oldest companies are fascinating. Wonder what Nationwide did w/Provident Mutuals? $$ Feb 18, 2012
@StockTwits I would hold meetings every now and then in Provident Mutual’s underused antiquities room; would start good conversations $$ Feb 18, 2012
Why Is Violent Crime Declining in US Cities? http://t.co/SLgD8bEL & http://t.co/RRRI2m8X Smarter law enforcement makes DC safer. Wow! $$ Feb 18, 2012
Thanks, liked it. RT @onwrdnupwrd: you will like this one from this weeks economist http://t.co/DMqhgXBB Feb 18, 2012
Interracial Marriages in US Reach a Record http://t.co/RJjWnTso Interesting that it is more prevalent with college educated people. $$ Feb 18, 2012
Harvard Mapping My DNA Turns Scary http://t.co/m5stl0d2 Journalist learns hard things about his DNA. Would he be better off not knowing? $$ Feb 18, 2012
Groupthink: The brainstorming myth http://t.co/7VBlhzKC People do better solving problems on their own, and sharing ideas w/the group $$ Feb 18, 2012
Fear, Submission, and Authoritarianism; a Disturbing Trend http://t.co/0lb32tOw Negative social mood leads to loss of liberties $$ Feb 16, 2012
Santorum?s Electability Pitch Undermined by 2006 Senate Re-Election Loss – Bloomberg http://t.co/8xglQQPJ Shouldn’t be an issue, here’s why: Feb 15, 2012
As the late Bob Casey said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” This is true, and it is why Santorum lost to his son. $$ Feb 15, 2012
Cracking the Long-Jump Code http://t.co/MN9d9EdJ Fascinating science applied; the key seems 2b2 jump higher, not just longer $$ Feb 15, 2012
The Best Foods for Thought, Literally http://t.co/tMyLW9E2 Perhaps the Mediterranean diet can aid brain function, or a lowcal diet $$ Feb 14, 2012
Contra: Almost Half the Price of Oil is Speculative Premium http://t.co/z8t51JOl It should be impossible to so overprice such a large mkt $$ Feb 14, 2012
The Hunt Brothers thought they could corner a much smaller silver market, and were not able to do it.? The oil compan? http://t.co/MLYVH5w3 Feb 14, 2012
So, What’s Your Algorithm? http://t.co/lC4voWCI Being able 2 crunch large amounts of data can lead to more objective decisions $$ #ornot Feb 13, 2012
@The_Analyst That’s one reason why I typically don’t comment on nonfarm payrolls; calculation of the number is complex; hard to analyze. $$ Feb 08, 2012
Farmers Plan Biggest Crops Since 1984, Led by Corn http://t.co/fpS3Ftys Farmers put Vegas to shame when it comes to risk. #rolldembones $$ Feb 08, 2012
Total Says SunPower Can Withstand China Solar Panel Competition http://t.co/oWPxaYrZ FD: long $TOT ; Watch other solar companies fold $$ Feb 07, 2012
American exposure http://t.co/bI6FR9hp What r the odds that continued European crisis will throw sand in2 the gears of America’s recovery? Feb 07, 2012
I think CR is right if we limit it to the housing that the GSEs lend on; I don’t think it is true of the… http://t.co/9bjWKPPQ Feb 07, 2012
Eurozone
A few thoughts about the Euro snafu? http://t.co/IVQ525GO The cost of Greece leaving the Euro would be very high? but so is the status quo. Feb 10, 2012
Inside the Head of Mario Draghi http://t.co/2LkA1ZUL Favors large banks and an expanded role for central institutions in the Eurozone $$ Feb 10, 2012
On Banknotes http://t.co/LghRIk35 Of safe boxes & paper money, particularly 1000 CHF-notes. Quick, hide $$ 4 a store of value against chaos! Feb 10, 2012
Graphic detail: European banks five-year subordinated CDS http://t.co/HQI1njNf HT @Alea_ The LTRO has decreased EZ-bank CDS & raised stocks. Feb 10, 2012
Euro Finance Chiefs to Defer on Greece http://t.co/okFLAYbb They await the deeds, rather than hearing the words $$ Feb 09, 2012
Sarkozy Most Unpopular as Election Nears Confronting Unprecedented Rebound http://t.co/PAn88rE0 Broader EZ effects: policy disagreements Feb 09, 2012
Homeowners Who Would Be Moguls Make Comeback in UK http://t.co/cdCxHeyo Back a lot sooner than I expected or hoped. Spec leverage rises $$ Feb 09, 2012
UK Failure, Contagion, and Musings on Switzerland http://t.co/wIFZlcO9 Euro Banking crisis -> Swiss crisis -> like Iceland ^ Banks/GDP $$ Feb 09, 2012
European repo has been contained! http://t.co/rzFKRou2 The ink on the LTRO is still wet, what happens when it the refi date comes? $$ Feb 09, 2012
Europe Crisis Cuts at French Welfare State http://t.co/5bCYU6QI Pretty gloomy article. No wonder Sarkozy is doing badly in the polls. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Merkel Approval at Highest Level Since ?09 http://t.co/xHazv1AZ Coalition wouldn?t have a governing majority if elections were held now $$ Feb 08, 2012
Irish Urge Children to Leave as Export Gain Masks Lost Jobs http://t.co/StOYG2xi Perhaps we should call this the Irish export jobs famine. Feb 07, 2012
Denmark?s Credit Crunch Worsening as Retrenching Banks Spur Vicious Circle http://t.co/fU8kf1c0 What did Soros say? http://t.co/ShMY4LWN Feb 07, 2012
Quantitative Investing/Methods
@kyles09 Where do you get figures for implied correlation? Pretty certain the figure I cited was for realized. Feb 10, 2012
Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 http://t.co/eOgHqgth Favors: Quality & Value stocks, developed mkts. Dis: Bonds & Emerg mkts Feb 10, 2012
Defensive Stocks Lose First Time Since 1999 as Equities Resume Bull Market http://t.co/LlGPWxFs Odd, but telling of how surprised most are Feb 09, 2012
@tomkeene Simple ARMA models are used by those that have no structural model, & r highly subject to abuse, torturing data to make it confess Feb 09, 2012
The Inner Broker Resurfaces http://t.co/raWp25LN Correlations r down. Stock-picking returns. But why have correlations fallen? Ideas? $$ Feb 09, 2012
@DavidSchawel @PlanMaestro When I ran option hedging auctions among inv banks, we got the best execution when we limited the # & went AON $$ Feb 09, 2012
Technical indicators point to need for caution http://t.co/3KxlReTy I’ve been selling little by little into the rally. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Contra: PRESENTING: The Great Market Disconnect Seen All Around The Globe http://t.co/qGlUl0qq No reason y they should b connected $$ Feb 08, 2012
A Market Timing Rule that Works http://t.co/ntVw7hiz Volatility timing reduces portfolio volatility by 1/3 w/o sacrificing total return $$ Feb 08, 2012
Contra: Is the 4% Rule Still Viable? http://t.co/Qz85NqIt I expected better from Smartmoney; a 4%/yr distribution is liberal if anything Feb 08, 2012
Dividends Are All The Rage ? The Clamour For Equity Yield http://t.co/pC1nlWVJ Low growing dividends w/strong BalSht is the preferred combo Feb 08, 2012
Hedge Fund profits flow mostly to Industry Insiders http://t.co/I73p7vUK W/2 & 20%, it takes a lot of gross returns 2 give big net 2 clients Feb 07, 2012
Contra: Junk Bonds Still Offer Margin for Error http://t.co/NW6q32fa When Tsy rates r low, normal junk spreads s/b higher & reflect risk Feb 07, 2012
Buy growth and inflation hedge vehicles http://t.co/0q0QoqlD Model moves from neutral to Inflation. Commodity prices jumpy of late $$ #boing Feb 07, 2012
Fed Policy / Banking
Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Tangles Treasury Trade http://t.co/nxCMTCqa Fed has acquired 20-30Y Tsys = 91% of new issuance post-Twist. $$ Feb 10, 2012
Banks Not Off Hook With $25B Mortgage Agreement http://t.co/Q6ObUnyA Only takes care of securitization, & not origination/underwriting $$ Feb 10, 2012
Why Dodd-Frank has already failed http://t.co/CZm7qnoP Regulators didn’t use their tools in the last boom, so better tools won’t help. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Bernanke Talks His Book http://t.co/romgydli Inflation implied by TIPS has been rising over the last four months, w/Ben Bernanke silent $$ Feb 09, 2012
Investors too complacent with the Fed?s pledge? http://t.co/G7c1yKDV Volatility on a number of swaptions r multiple standard devs cheap $$ Feb 08, 2012
Global liquidity fail ? the role of skewed incentives http://t.co/Ehgu0Ajm Liquidity is more tenuous when leverage is layered $$ #dominos Feb 08, 2012
Bernanke Economy Shows Critics Wrong on Fed http://t.co/18CYlDZc Too early. Sterilized base money takes 5-7 years 2 produce inflation $$ Feb 08, 2012
The Fed’s next hike will come at the end of 2014 http://t.co/UNW0mo0g Too definite. The economy is always more volatile than expected $$ Feb 08, 2012
The Fed Votes No Confidence http://t.co/qps0mbbD Charles Schwab argues that overly loose Fed policy unnerves economic decisionmakers $$ Feb 07, 2012
Banks Pay Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures http://t.co/t8xQpEq7 ‘Bout time. Now we can clear the decks on the low end of housing $$ Feb 07, 2012
Politics / Governement
Judge Suggests US Misled Court on Immigration Policy http://t.co/jaRY1V2f What happens when #SCOTUS is deceived & issues opinion off it? Feb 10, 2012
I’ve interacted with Bruce Bueno De Mesquita over his book. It’s a good book, but a lot… http://t.co/CXmUh349 Feb 10, 2012
USPS Loses $3.3B, Warns of Cash Drain http://t.co/d8DKwMzC The loss is for the last quarter; somthing is going to have to give here. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Contra: Live, From the Nation?s Capital, the Supreme Court http://t.co/3Ob69SHI Big mistake if #SCOTUS televises; cheapens deliberations. Feb 09, 2012
World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months http://t.co/jJ5EHmAG #Agflation continues; we can print $$, credit, but can’t print food. Feb 09, 2012
Misreading Catholic Barometer Is a Political Risk http://t.co/42JGnZWo Amer Catholics favor contraception, but dislike dissing bishops Feb 09, 2012
@ToddSullivan “Voting no were Reps. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rob Woodall (R-Ga.)” $$ http://t.co/LoU2rUQz Wonder what they own? Feb 09, 2012
“Can you imagine if you had to exchange your currency every time you crossed the state line?” The Confederation come? http://t.co/4C1crjn4 Feb 09, 2012
LA?s Six-Figure Carpenters Show Clout of Utility Union http://t.co/GuHB4OOc Nice work if you can get it; pity the poor taxpayers though $$ Feb 08, 2012
Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes?on Less Than 1% of His Income http://t.co/HB5rzRin Buffett asks for tax raises where he does not earn Feb 08, 2012
Is falling U.S. unemployment a statistical mirage? http://t.co/JTuqoKXF More on the falling labor participation rate & discouraged workers Feb 08, 2012
Not a Fan of Santorum, but anything that deadlocks the Republican Convention is a good thing. Here is for someone totally new. Feb 08, 2012
The optimal endgame for the Republicans is that the convention deadlocks, & they choose someone else. The four remaining r fatally flawed $$ Feb 08, 2012
6 Catholics he may not want 2 offend: #SCOTUS RT @BloombergView: @RameshPonnuru on Obama’s smackdown of Catholics $$ http://t.co/eJkuQRRN Feb 07, 2012
For Sale: AIG’s Subprime Bonds http://t.co/zs89CIJy Color me wrong on this one; never thought the loan would get paid back at par $$ Feb 07, 2012
Are Credit Ratings Massively Overrated? http://t.co/YtOLGnj2 Acid test: will regulators outsource the credit risk function to a formula? $$ Feb 07, 2012
Answer: Unlikely, because then they have no one to blame when something goes wrong. $$ Feb 07, 2012
Asset Management
Vanguard’s Forex-Hedged Foreign Bond ETFs http://t.co/194ZRxI2 Frustrating to see them finally do a foreign bond fund & then they hedge. Ugh Feb 09, 2012
Buffett: Bonds Among Most Dangerous Assets http://t.co/x5sJUaak Loss of purchasing power, default, w/no upside. $$ Feb 09, 2012
The Difference Between Owners and CEOs http://t.co/0Vtg8bmZ Companies w/dominant shareholders are typically more price-sensitive on buybacks Feb 09, 2012
everything is connected http://t.co/XADlN5wL Very difficult to improve overall processes inside investment firms w/o looking @ everything $$ Feb 09, 2012
RT @Frank_McG: @AlephBlog reminds me when nortel mkt cap eclipsed sum of same for all cad banks, back in 2000 – the new math….for a w … Feb 08, 2012
Merely to claim that $AAPL is an outlier begs the question of data reasonableness. Anyone know what had the largest negative surprise? Feb 08, 2012
Apple Results Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, Golub Says http://t.co/i9qJ2rpT If you’re going to remove the best, then remove the worst too Feb 08, 2012
sudden shifts in capital flows ? a risk for EM investors http://t.co/oVHjYiJb Increases in reserves can lead to asset bubbles. $$ Feb 08, 2012
BlackRock?s Fink Says Be 100% in Equities http://t.co/KmXXIFXY That’s quite a call; leaven it with short hi-qual debt and long Tsys $$ Feb 08, 2012
Gold not a reliable inflation hedge http://t.co/XofX5KBX A lot depends on how long the hedge horizon is; noisy in short-run certainly $$ Feb 08, 2012
The End of Wall Street As They Knew It http://t.co/takMaT4e Continued delevering means opportunities in finance r limited & so is future pay Feb 07, 2012
Just wanted to highlight a blog that has been having a discussion w/ @epicureandealmaker : Synthetic Assets http://t.co/iCMb0VXQ Good stuff Feb 07, 2012
Gorman Embracing Vegemite in New Wall Street?s 15% Bogey at Morgan Stanley http://t.co/drNTToLN $MS looking more promising currently $$ Feb 07, 2012
@BarbarianCap $FNF is one bizarre company, almost like a merchant bank. Now that mortgages aren’t a gravy train, they go elsewhere $$ Feb 07, 2012
Why Dividend Stocks Aren’t the New Bonds http://t.co/FiK2kPnV Just because a stock pays a div doesn’t mean it ceases 2b a stock #caploss Feb 07, 2012
@MarcHochstein worth to be published daily? Didn’t think so, and I am generally one that favors FMV acctg. FM NAV is a useful internally. Feb 09, 2012
@MarcHochstein I say that b/c a published floating NAV would cause more instability. Would bankers like the fair market value of bank net + Feb 09, 2012
@MarcHochstein Reinforces my view that academic economists r more frequently wrong than those working in business. We deal w/real world. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Money market mutual funds provide more transparency than banks http://t.co/SIXd9Yq2 frequent disclosure down 2 the individual security level Feb 09, 2012
Will SEC Rules Make Treasurers Flee Money-Market Funds? http://t.co/yrgSqFta If I were a treasurer, I would probably buy CP directly. $$ Feb 09, 2012
Simplifies my logic & pushes it forward RT @MarcHochstein: @AlephBlog you’re the Blog of the Day, hope I did it justice http://t.co/Uu18unUF Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein You did it justice. Thanks, many thanks. Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein Had some interesting arguments with the folks at ICI.org . They seem to be playing for all marbles, and will lose. Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein I’m an actuary by training, and have developed stable value funds w/more complex protections, this one is simple, FWIW Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein I’ve actually talked w/some in the MMF industry; they prefer that nothing be done; I don’t think that’s realistic politically Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein So if the loss at the MMF had the NAV down to .9925, renormalizing to 1.0025 means ~1% of shares would disappear. Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein But it has to be lower than 1.005, or you’d have to set the NAV @ 1.01, which MMF don’t want. 1.0025 is the average. Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein 1.0025 is artificial; it just has to be great than 1 so that a run increases the NAV, and biases yields higher in the future Feb 08, 2012
@MarcHochstein Yes, the number of shares is reduced, and the NAV re-normalized @ 1.0025, so that if there is a run, the MMF strengthens Feb 08, 2012
Ready for the next great ETF? Because of the undue persecution of money market funds,there is a lack of demand for A2/P2 commercial paper $$ Feb 08, 2012
Blogging
Blogosphere, We Get It? http://t.co/EDBeJoJi Checked my blog. Only said “we get it” twice in 5 yrs & always followed by the word “wrong.” $$ Feb 08, 2012
And the point is, I get it wrong. Frequently. In economics & investing, the game isn’t simply 2 avoid errors, but 2 minimize their damage $$ Feb 08, 2012
Kauffman Blogger Survey: Economic Sexiness Coming http://t.co/2SLEfv2B A mixed group of forecasters sees better times ahead $$ Feb 07, 2012
Miscellaneous
How to Be a Better Boss? Spend Time on the Front Lines http://t.co/0w90dQJG Mgrs can learn a lot by spending time in the trenches $$ Feb 10, 2012
Best Disclaimer Language Ever http://t.co/orYSFN2k “The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and…” $$ Feb 09, 2012
MF Global Trustee Sheds New Light on Chaos at Firm http://t.co/bTRwHARE Key Q: how much $$ transferred in final 5 days can b clawed back? Feb 07, 2012
