Tweets – Page 10 – The Aleph Blog

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 30 June 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

Germany Signals Shift on Europe Aid http://t.co/AcnaysGz “a common fiscal policy would be irreversible and well coordinated.” $$ Jun 29, 2012
Bermuda on track to comply with EU insurer rules http://t.co/TFdvIr1D If not, cos reinsured could not take full reserve credit;wud lose biz Jun 26, 2012
How Germany?s euro fight has turned Orwellian http://t.co/fjwZFYvb “foreigners shouldn?t overestimate Germany?s financial capacity.” $$ Jun 26, 2012
Hollande Reality Makes French Debt Less Attractive http://t.co/Rroiv8TI Bondholders care about getting repaid. Hollande = higher risk $$ Jun 26, 2012
Germany to Confront United Euro Bloc at Summit http://t.co/vWLyG6ND Time to bring back the D-mark, or, centralize the E-zone into a nation Jun 25, 2012
All the bail-out systems under the sun cannot make the eurozone work http://t.co/apMBQ3FB The loans, at whatever rate, cannot b repaid $$ Jun 25, 2012
Merkel Parries Push for Euro Debt Plan as Growth Outline Agreed http://t.co/JLWa9Ley Merkel repeated ?liabilities & controls go together? Jun 24, 2012
Bundesbank Swipes at Draghi as European Fault Lines Deepen http://t.co/EwRMq9kT Do you want your currency 2b a stable unit of account $$ Jun 24, 2012
Spanish Government in Denial: Banks Need 100B EUR to Recapitalize http://t.co/r1FaA0Lp Eurozone is under stress & estimates capital low $$ Jun 24, 2012

TEXAS SHIFT MAY SHOW WAY OUT OF IMMIGRATION STALEMATE http://t.co/eWN2NYuV Favoring guest-worker programs may break national stalemate $$ Jun 29, 2012
A defense of the tax exemption for municipal bonds (part one) http://t.co/xYV1S4Ft @munilass explains the reasonable nature of the exemption Jun 29, 2012
Congress Would Hate to Lose Its Tax-Code Toys http://t.co/2iifOmcE @cabaum points out that our current policies aren’t working $$ Jun 29, 2012
All municipalities that raise employee benefits without respect for costs deserve bankruptcy: thus Stockon, CA $$ http://t.co/5ZQITDW2 Jun 29, 2012
Pt 2 — individual does not survive, and the fragmentation of the decision makes the interpretation messy; Obama implements asmuch he can $$ Jun 26, 2012
Going to toss out a wild idea on #scotus & PPACA/Obamacare; several concurring opinions get issued overturning aspects of the law, but… $$ Jun 26, 2012
Yield spreads widening, Industrial commodity prices falling. I think those are the main factors. http://t.co/qehXYflS? http://t.co/EKG81LB0 Jun 26, 2012
No such thing as animal spirits, businessmen r cautious w/debt $$ RT @EconTalker: Spending is the consequence of prosperity, not its cause. Jun 26, 2012
Biggest U.S. Banks Curb Loans as Regional Firms Fill Gap http://t.co/kxqgOjwu Lending reduction from bigs is > increase from regionals $$ Jun 26, 2012
Flood Cleanup Continues in Duluth http://t.co/XXNH1oW6 “surge of run-off from the hill made the flood so dramatic.” Duluth flooded? $$ Jun 25, 2012
Stockton, CA Nears Bankruptcy http://t.co/H2GTkjrl Will reduce employee benefit costs; muni bondholders likely be paid $$ 14x Vallejo Jun 25, 2012
States Face Pressure on Pension Shortfalls http://t.co/h1U5PYbE GASB finally gets spine & tells states their pension acctg is liberal $$ Jun 24, 2012

Comments

@RMGSelection They get clones of portfolios that I personally own Jun 29, 2012
@RMGSelection I manage separately managed accounts of stocks and bonds for upper middle class individuals and small institutions Jun 29, 2012
@RMGSelection You’re welcome, but I don’t do Facebook 🙁 Jun 28, 2012
@BubblesandBusts 40% banks; top 10 75%, too much downside risk in a real washout, would rather consider $TEF, $REP, or maybe a CEF… $$ Jun 27, 2012
You’re sounding good, keep it up $$ RT @ReformedBroker: @AlephBlog bob auer from auer growth fund Jun 26, 2012
@ReformedBroker Who was the GARP mgr that you were interviewing late in the 1st hour, and early 2nd hour? Jun 26, 2012
@CLHinkle I don’t know enough about Gina Rainmondo; don’t live there, etc. What little I have seen of her I have mostly liked $$ Jun 26, 2012
“Hard to see how Telefonica $TEF goes bust. 5.4% is a lot of spread… $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/P37qVme0 Jun 26, 2012
EJ made its name w/quantitative models of corporate risk; govts aren’t the same $$ RT @fundmyfund: Egan Jones has jumped the shark Jun 26, 2012
RT @TheOneDave: Chemicals ought to come with a U.S. economic warning label. See this Chart of the Day: http://t.co/JgeNLCTI via @Bloombe … Jun 26, 2012
What a chart, but price was lower in April 2000 $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Arch Coal $ACI lifetime low, I think. Jun 26, 2012
RT @historysquared: sustained negative real yields in advanced economies (preceded double digit inflation in the 70s) http://t.co/qAhT1Y6m Jun 26, 2012
Well done! $$ RT @AmyResnick: Well beyond bonds: Digging into reports from muni borrowers : Reynolds Center http://t.co/8VqthumF Jun 26, 2012
Switched back 2 old RT @asymmetricinfo: New Tweetdeck app has broken the ability to follow conversations. Curse you, Tweetdeck developers! Jun 26, 2012
‘ @grossdm Skills that can be used by multiple employers r typically paid for by the employee; company-specific skills by the employer $$ Jun 25, 2012
@moneyscience I didn’t find this compelling; my practical experience in holding multiple auctions says differently http://t.co/eO2OVeHl $$ Jun 25, 2012
@manualofideas I agree, it is hard. But when I was a kid, my friends would say to me, “There r accidents, but Dave, that error took skill.” Jun 25, 2012
@manualofideas there is the risk of continuing to lose money, and no deal emerges… $$ Jun 25, 2012
@saraeisenFX Dissolving the Euro would be the smartest idea, but ideologues insisting on “closer & deeper union” will say otherwise $$ Jun 25, 2012
Diversification: A substitute for knowledge & a poor one $$ RT @EddyElfenbein: The most over-rated investing concept = diversification. Jun 25, 2012
Can also pull into XL http://t.co/iFcz0Hf3 RT @TheStalwart: Wow, you can download all the data on FRED in one big file. http://t.co/yFiymSDu Jun 24, 2012
@manualofideas What I sent to the SEC: http://t.co/vuNGATPK Only 2 pgs long, but offers a simple solution. Let me know what u think Jun 24, 2012
@manualofideas Two pages: http://t.co/vuNGATPK Let me know what you think. I think this is the best proposal so far. Jun 24, 2012

Fraud

New bank theft software hits three continents http://t.co/ImYJHG38 “sophisticated enough to defeat… two-factor authentication” b aware $$ Jun 26, 2012
Greed is an attitude, and it is not good. It is present with people who are addicted to making more. More, more, more? http://t.co/ChDSAB4T Jun 26, 2012
1 Year of Your Life and $100,000: Growing Cost of Medical ID Theft http://t.co/7FUFfmGV Important 2b aware of this new form of ID theft $$ Jun 26, 2012

Market Currents

Do Good Investment Managers Give Away Great Ideas? It?s Entirely Rational According to New Study http://t.co/g00pNfDy @sumzero & Value IC $$ Jun 26, 2012
Tropical Storm http://t.co/J16JmXP7 The same could be said of pricing/trading in the bond market, and few complain about that. $$ Jun 26, 2012
Chesapeake Slumps On Report Of Scheme To Suppress Land Prices http://t.co/HTTKi80j Another cockroach. Y I saw 1 of those yesterday… $$ Jun 25, 2012
Kepos’ quiet touch wins favor among quant funds http://t.co/EG7Dydaj Remains 2b tested. As a quant, how do u avoid crowded trades? $$ Jun 25, 2012

Miscellaneous

In a Shift, Chinese Exporters Cling to Dollars http://t.co/gaEIIW5I As I have sometimes said, it may be that the Yuan is overvalued $$ Jun 29, 2012
Central Banks Commit to Ease as Threat of Lost Decades Rises http://t.co/3h4MPgKn “It?s going 2b very hard for them 2 stimulate demand” $$ Jun 25, 2012
Should Tenure for College Professors Be Abolished? http://t.co/rvk7kena Tenure rewards the past, 2 the possible neglect of the future $$ Jun 25, 2012
Borg Bashes Banks in Sweden Shielding Housing Bubble http://t.co/Z0SISjQC Can a housing bubble be deflated w/o significant fallout? $$ Jun 25, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 23 June 201223 June 2012 by David Merkel

A note to all of the actuaries in the audience, all three of you 😉 : an old friend from my GIC days is seeking a multi-talented actuary to work in the stable value business.? Must understand how wraps work, etc.? If interested, drop me a note, and I’ll send you the contact info.

On with the tweets:

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Eurozone

May not last long $$ RT @John_Hempton: @AlephBlog Spain imposing on bank junior bonds but prefs in Santander still trading at par! Strange. Jun 23, 2012
Buying Europe Banks Is Easy for Herro as Cheap Stocks Fall http://t.co/gfCOhY8q Key question here is accounting quality; not a buyer $$ Jun 23, 2012
Spain Said to Weigh Imposing Losses on Junior Bank Bondholders http://t.co/cD1hoAVa Fine, but they won’t fund jr debt for 20yrs or so $$ Jun 23, 2012
Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF http://t.co/9V2FJ0Xc IMF doesn’t like the complexity of the E-Zone, wants it 2 behave like a nation Jun 23, 2012
Debt crisis: Angela Merkel defies Latin Europe and the IMF on bond rescue http://t.co/qTKEAr5O She who pays the $$ calls the tunes Jun 23, 2012
What?s So Special About the Euro Currency Area? http://t.co/oJWyrLAk Currency unions don’t work; must centralize or die $$ Jun 21, 2012
Merkel Balks at Sovereign Debt Purchases to Overcome Crisis http://t.co/UfuN4ae8 Physically, the crisis looks like it is wearing on Angela Jun 21, 2012
Spanish short-term debt costs reach alarm levels http://t.co/Dm8d2bsv Yields high enough that Spain unlikely to grow out of the debt $$ Jun 21, 2012
Cyprus Said to Face Europe Pressure for $13 Billion Aid http://t.co/z0etJBlX Who wants to maintain influence in Cyprus? Russia, E-zone? $$ Jun 20, 2012
‘ @aarontask He might b right. Key Q is how much Germans/Nordics/Dutch view themselves as Europeans 1st rather than Germans/Nordics/Dutch $$ Jun 20, 2012
Greek Leaders Poised to Agree on Three-Way Coalition http://t.co/JvAaPDDj It will be difficult for that coalition 2 hold together $$ Jun 20, 2012
Ma?ana-nomics at Los Cabos http://t.co/GtlAj4lY Weak Europoliticians blame US, when their banking system was overlevered & malregulated $$ Jun 20, 2012
G20 summit: perils of a half-baked rescue for Spain and Italy http://t.co/7E6jPK4W E-zone not ready 2 take strong actions; don’t force it $$ Jun 20, 2012
Is Spain past the point of no return? http://t.co/zCRF7qKo ??I suspect the ECB will have to be the buyer of last resort for Spanish bonds.?? Jun 19, 2012
Saddling Spain With Bank Burden Repeats Irish Error http://t.co/dWgYAUht Protect deposits, not bank bonds, preferreds, or stocks $$ Jun 19, 2012
“Which is why $JPM had the hedge there in the first place $$” http://t.co/o61frAFX Dimon Says ?Firewalls? May Halt Spread of Europe Crisis Jun 19, 2012
Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries’ debt http://t.co/OEFi9UI9 Last refuge of scoundrels:blame speculators Jun 19, 2012
Fran?ois Hollande said meeting btw Ezone & Obama rescheduled4this morning2brief Americans on “mechanisms that allow us to fight speculation” Jun 19, 2012
Spanish Yields at 7% Show Investors Slamming Door http://t.co/JxGxNHDn Spain is slowly passing the “tipping point” into hopelessness. $$ Jun 18, 2012
Where is the relief? RT @jennablan: Where is the relief rally? Jun 18, 2012

FOMC Meeting/Press Conference

Fed Seen Extending Operation Twist and Avoiding Bond Buys http://t.co/qFOSA0rf Fed can’t do nothing, so it does something that is nothing Jun 21, 2012
RT @ezraklein: Hypothesis: Bernanke doesn’t do more because he doesn’t think he can. He says otherwise is because he doesn’t want the ma … Jun 20, 2012
Dr. Bernanke: Couldn?t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets? Jun 20, 2012
That’s all folks!!! Jun 20, 2012
Dr. Bernanke, Isn?t stagflation a possibility here? I mean, no one expected it in the ?70s either. $$ Jun 20, 2012
Q for Bernanke: If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks? $$ Jun 20, 2012
Stocks trading off — correlated with future inflation rates; long Treasuries rallying nominal yields falling -> real rates stable-ish $$ Jun 20, 2012
What Bernanke is describing in terms of hedging and risk management has to be done in the insurance industry; actuarial risk analyses Jun 20, 2012
W/MBS rates, those mtges that are underwater don’t benefit, same for Alt-A & Jumbo; low rates don’t help many in residential real estate $$ Jun 20, 2012
Effect of Tsy ylds on corporate yields is stronger 4 AAA-A bonds, moderate 4 BBB bonds, little 4 junk & the effects get weaker w/maturity $$ Jun 20, 2012
That’s the wrap up for the central tendencies and averages of the FOMC’s additional data release. Anyone find those summaries useful? $$ Jun 20, 2012
Changes in Avg Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End 2012-2014, Longer -0.07%, -0.10%, -0.22%, -0.09% $$ Levels: 0.30%, 0.50%, 1.11%, 4.11% Jun 20, 2012
Average appropriate timing of policy firming moved out 1.6 months to November 2013 $$ Jun 20, 2012
Changes in PCE Inflation central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.4)%, -0.07%, -0.12%, 0% $$ Levels: 1.48%, 1.76%, 1.77%, 2.00% Jun 20, 2012
Changes in unemployment central tendency 2012-2014, Longer +0.18%, +0.20%, +0.24%, +0.03% $$ Levels: 8.10%, 7.71%, 7.28%, 5.60% Jun 20, 2012
Changes in real GDP growth central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.50%, -0.37%, -0.11%, -0.04% $$ Levels: 2.13%, 2.57%, 3.28%, 2.44% Jun 20, 2012
+1 RT @bondscoop: Steve Liesman is the Fed’s Helen Thomas Jun 20, 2012
Fed wants to see long TIPS up in price relative to long nominal Treasuries. http://t.co/X5Gjt6jI Jun 20, 2012
@TheStalwart #FOMCGuesses OT extended, no QE3, central tendencies move back to where they were in January, shades lang down GDP, CPI, etc $$ Jun 20, 2012
C?mon, Ben, Just Say It; Please, Just Say QE3 http://t.co/ksIKxZ6C Sad that equity guys beg 4 stimulus; think OT extends; no QE3 yet $$ Jun 20, 2012

Rest of the World

Glencore Protests Bolivia’s Move on Mine http://t.co/OcIzatJ5 Bolivia has Venezuela envy; won’t end until Morales is shown 2b a fail. $$ Jun 23, 2012
Children of Mao’s wrath vie for power in China http://t.co/pWzj4Dbq All of the current ruling class survived the Cultural Revolution $$ Jun 22, 2012
Riskier Bets Pitched to Asia’s Rising Rich http://t.co/P6PjFqyR Yield is the oldest scam in the books; Asia’s brokers fleece clients $$ Jun 21, 2012
China warns its rare earth reserves are declining http://t.co/ve2e6PQq I doubt this, but if true -> significant scarcity of rare earths $$ Jun 20, 2012
Britain doomed, apparently http://t.co/WdvPCsxs Countries that don?t reset their systems through default, will experience money decay $$ Jun 20, 2012
Suicides, Arrests Show Trouble at Korean Savings Banks http://t.co/aP1fu6KS Pride drives suicides, rather than confession of wrongdoing $$ Jun 19, 2012
The UN’s Internet Power Grab http://t.co/LE704S74 Never surrender an advantage for no gain; does the Obama administration get that? $$ Jun 18, 2012
The Return of Egypt’s ‘Deep State’ http://t.co/i1IkbmMq Islamists & liberals checkmated by Egyptian Army 4 now. Liberals s/b glad $$ Jun 17, 2012
@dpinsen Agreed, better H/L would have been: “Egyptian Army reveals full control, ends show that played w/democracy 2 smoke out enemies” $$ Jun 17, 2012
Noda Ends Japan Nuclear Freeze, Risking Voter Backlash at Polls http://t.co/Jcoxl91Z He does the right thing, but will the voters agree $$ Jun 17, 2012

Banks

A History of Money Funds http://t.co/KXCpfCDz Let the critics of money market funds apply the same2banks; mark2market accounting. $$ Jun 23, 2012
Bank Investors Dismiss Moody?s Cuts as Years Too Late http://t.co/5cOsGOyG True. Moody’s should’ve done it in 2008; did politics stopthem? Jun 23, 2012
Citigroup Faces $5 Billion on Dollar?s Rise, Peabody Says http://t.co/5HZtJfvx So, on the heels of $JPM, $C has a currency mismatch? $$ Jun 21, 2012
Eminent domain for underwater mortgages could have biggest impact on banks http://t.co/NK9W0PyO Comments at end; disagreement welcomed $$ Jun 20, 2012

Central Banking

Bernanke Acknowledges Tsy Strategy @ Odds W/Fed Policy http://t.co/MqW6qda2 “Thx, Unca Ben 4letting us issue morre 30s” Ben:”Arrrgh!” $$ Jun 23, 2012
The Fed?s second best solution http://t.co/YJhiHbNd “collateral damage will mount, making the next policy steps even more excruciating.” Jun 21, 2012
Fed Born of Morgan?s Bailout Under Scrutiny After Dimon?s Loss http://t.co/7EHPlSvM How significant is it 4 Jamie D 2b on NY Fed board? $$ Jun 19, 2012
Krugman’s Intellectual Waterloo http://t.co/brrRB3CP Suggested possible Fed stimulus: blow housing bubble 2replace tech bubble $$ Jun 17, 2012
Also, the last H/L could have been: “Bernanke?s GDP View Invalidated as Economy Slows” FOMC has been lousy economic forecasters lately $$ Jun 17, 2012
Bernanke?s Inflation View Validated as Commodities Fall http://t.co/pjRKhXWv Median & Trimmed mean CPIs mot falling, better measures $$ Jun 17, 2012

Asset Management

Pimco?s Gross Warns of Risk Assets as Aberdeen Avoids Stocks http://t.co/pcqnMis6 Bill Gross signs on to deflation late & promotes it $$ Jun 23, 2012
Private Equity Has Too Much Money to Spend on Homes http://t.co/VPToSU8I Big buyers need to stay quiet if they want 2 make good returns $$ Jun 22, 2012
Simon Lack responds to AIMA’s hedge fund cheerleading http://t.co/VQq4s1O8 Backfill bias, IRR vs Buy&Hold, high fees, survivor bias $$ Jun 21, 2012
At 40,000 feet, Fidelity’s Danoff ponders Groupons http://t.co/BwOKJR8X Danoff is a survivor; he’s right it’s lonely 2b a stockpicker $$ Jun 21, 2012
Very good point. Wall Street is a 1-note Sam RT @chadstarliper: Has there ever been a time when Wall St didn’t think stocks were “cheap?” $$ Jun 20, 2012
Wall Street says stocks are bargains, but that assumes surging profits http://t.co/0c0iDdK6 Or at least growing sales w/flat profit mgns $$ Jun 20, 2012
America?s $8T corporate debt market faces liquidity drought as banks retreat from the trade http://t.co/rvXwFsjW Shouldn’t b that bad $$ Jun 19, 2012
Equities entail less risk than ?haven? investments http://t.co/u3befAMT Ain’t necessarily true; think of the Great Depression or 1871 $$ Jun 19, 2012
Valuation Matters…. Equity vs Bonds Edition http://t.co/23IikMDJ Earnings ylds v Tsy ylds unstable; Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price/resources bettr Jun 19, 2012
Biggest Stocks Beat S&P 500 Most in 13 Years as Valuations Fall http://t.co/7vLxG6VN Once valuations get so low, they must go up $$ Jun 18, 2012

Companies

DuPont selling Conoco at oil mkt trough $$RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
DuPont buying Conoco at oil mkt peak $$ RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
J.C. Penney Falls After Francis Leaves Amid Strategy Flop http://t.co/jfAVGj3V Rare setback 4 Ackman/Pershing on $JCP; retail is tough $$ Jun 20, 2012
Buffett Extends Real-Estate Bet With ResCap Pursuit http://t.co/ZsN6J0Pm Buffett is early, in my opinion, but has the capital to do it $$ Jun 18, 2012

Pensions

US public retiree benefits gap grows to $1.38T http://t.co/7bZ18GRB Gap widened by $120 billion since last year; thx Ben 4 low discnt rates Jun 20, 2012
Joe Nocera Is Wrong About Woonsocket’s Crisis http://t.co/Z3RM9UGO Harder2discharge muni “pension” bonds than renegotiate muni pensions $$ Jun 20, 2012
GM Seen Fueling Pension Deals as Employers Face Shortfall http://t.co/noz9auU0 Hope $MET & $PRU survive; guaranty funds limited in size $$ Jun 19, 2012
Terminal funding of DB pension plans will be a growing phenomenon if corps/states bite bullet and kick in more $$ to fund annuity purchases Jun 19, 2012
Problem to annuitants is companies can go broke; no PBGC coverage of annuities, and state guarantees r usually limited 2 $100,000 total $$ Jun 19, 2012

Media

Love the Leaker, Hate the Leak http://t.co/wiY7RwJU Value of releasing sensitive govt data to the public is in the eye of the beholder $$ Jun 21, 2012
How David Weidner Changed My Life http://t.co/g9LVJIWD @reformedbroker – how getting on @davidweidner ‘s Top 10 list gave him a big boost $$ Jun 19, 2012
+1 won’t watch RT @ReformedBroker: Bloomberg PR pushing their Meredith Whitney interview video hard today. They haven’t gotten the memo yet. Jun 19, 2012
Wrong: 20 rules that can save you from the Doomsday Cycle http://t.co/jLB0s2pL Why does Marketwatch give Paul Farrell space 2 write? $$ Jun 19, 2012
So long, suckers ? I?m leaving Wall Street http://t.co/x1Ju1fmZ David Weidner: Some lessons from 15 years observing the industry $$ Jun 19, 2012

Miscellaneous

Liquidity, Noise, and Signal http://t.co/cV15Mr2z Shorter the time period-> higher ratio noise/signal; leads2bad trades @ turning points $$ Jun 21, 2012
‘ @JATranfo Never criticized ECRI when out of favor; FWIW, I reverse-engineered their main model: industrial commod pxs & credit spreads $$ Jun 21, 2012
Lawmakers Push for Overhaul of IPO Process http://t.co/qhh7tX1V Every “fix” creates its own set of problems. Mania can hit auctions 2 $$ Jun 21, 2012
Yes $$ RT @Fullcarry: A point I have made many times in the past: the drop in yields the past decade is mostly due to a drop in real rates. Jun 20, 2012
Housing Starts in U.S. Fall 4.8% in May on Apartments http://t.co/PhMFwHQL Interesting contrary data; $EQR chart http://t.co/vleXkVAM $$ Jun 19, 2012
Asians Top Immigration Class http://t.co/Sir2IFxQ Certainly noticeable here in Ellicott City; most businesses have signs in Korean $$ Jun 19, 2012
Poorly reasoned: Court-Ordered Care ? A Complication of Pregnancy 2 Avoid http://t.co/DqmhsvkU Mothers w/child in womb uniquely affect child Jun 18, 2012
Please follow @jarrodwilcox, He has taught me many things, and I respect him a great deal #FF Jun 17, 2012
A Jewish-Asian Couple?s Union Leads to a Scholarly Interest in Intermarriage http://t.co/U3jfPkyK Both ethnic groups prize education $$ Jun 17, 2012

Comments

DavidMerkel’s discussion on “The New Yorker’s Newest Writer Is a Big Self-Plagiarist” http://t.co/g1i0YeF4 Writing belongs2those that paid Jun 20, 2012
“High energy particle physics is only a small part of science, and not adequate to measure the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/T4BrvWBj Jun 20, 2012
“Please, accidents per passenger mile would be better, rather than: “He also pointed to the fact?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Yg6r5N3X Jun 20, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Maybe DC city govt should start a reality TV show, w/prizes 2 the official who commits the most cr? http://t.co/lIXL6eMi Jun 20, 2012
RE: @bloombergview ?How will you deal with deferral of individual taxes on investment from DC plans, unrealized CGs, ? http://t.co/NY0Q3Ia5 Jun 20, 2012
“Cool picture, Ed. Thanks for sharing it.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Mg9lx0ij Jun 19, 2012
“Hitting the fiscal cliff won’t happen, and that’s too bad, because we need to discuss long-term imbalances” ? D_Merkel http://t.co/csiaLXlV Jun 19, 2012
“Here is a proposal for how rating agencies could be eliminated: http://t.co/rLrOK4vu…” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/q2mxmhpW Jun 19, 2012
“I trust ratings agencies more than mismanaged governments. Ratings are needed to provide?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/vOdPJvzv Jun 19, 2012
“If this is representative of what the ruling Greek coalition will do, the government will fail?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/HEe4GwHt Jun 19, 2012
“Much as we may dislike financial fraud, suggesting that those in the US that mismanaged their banks?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/fEZQIo0h Jun 19, 2012
‘ @FilmCriticOne You say u want tax reform, but ur willing2let value grow untaxed through deferral? Get real; ability2defer is the issue $$ Jun 16, 2012

Dimon for Fed Secretary

@dlevineMW @moorehn and pay cut. The same rumors were applied to Hank Greenberg $AIG 4 Tsy Secretary user Bush, Sr. Said the same then $$ Jun 19, 2012
Jamie kind2let us live in his world 😉 RT @ReformedBroker He’s hedging the Senate w/the House right now, y’all r just pawns in a bigger game Jun 19, 2012
Why should Jamie accept the demotion? $$ RT @moorehn: This is just Jamie practicing for confirmation hearings as Treasury Secretary, right? Jun 19, 2012

Tax Policy

Tax Panels Turn Focus to Investments http://t.co/sq6AnHdE Best poss is lowering corp tax rates, equalizing all tax rates for individuals Jun 23, 2012
How to Kill the Corporate-Income Tax http://t.co/T5MgnVuD Evens out personal income tax rates by class. Good, but what about deferral? $$ Jun 20, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 16 June 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

Spain Grazing Junk Status Fuels Contagion Risk http://t.co/bEvUbpcE Life is tough near the tipping point; EZone unstable by design $$ Jun 16, 2012
A Conversation on Europe’s Political Economy with George Friedman and John Mauldin http://t.co/HysUyF2N Can EZone politics work? $$ 9min vid Jun 15, 2012
ECB Tells Court Releasing Greek Swap Files Would Inflame Markets http://t.co/pASYdDNC All-wise ECB tells us we can’t handle the truth $$ Jun 15, 2012
Central Banks Warn Greek-Led Euro Stress Threatens World http://t.co/fwFSb7wr Central Bankers will dilute the curncys2pay bank ruptures $$ Jun 15, 2012
Draghi Hints ECB Is Ready to Act http://t.co/dG4QRLTE Nobody else is doing much, so Draghi takes the next step 2 $$ looseness #FTL Jun 15, 2012
Merkel?s options: Pay, inflate, or else? http://t.co/6iyl3f0H If the Germans want2keep EZone, must give up @ least 1 of their goals $$ Jun 15, 2012
Bond Parishioners Are Leaving The Euro Church http://t.co/szDlBJ5m “Liquidity never cures solvency problems which is exactly where we r now” Jun 14, 2012
David Rosenberg Channels Felix Zulauf http://t.co/7g7JN8e5 High debt levels combined w/inflexibility of Euro make solutions tough $$ Jun 14, 2012
Germany and Greece: a tale of estrangement http://t.co/2YFZ2xDY Greece was probably hopeless, but Germany raised/dashed expectations $$ Jun 14, 2012
Switzerland joining the Eurozone would have to join the EU; would not solve the currency problem but merely make the problem permanent $$ Jun 14, 2012
The Dangers of Switzerland’s Currency Strategy http://t.co/ryydgM5Q Switzerland should join the euro http://t.co/zdotnFSb $$ Jun 14, 2012
I would love to meet Angela Merkel & discuss the Eurozone w/her, but I know my limits, i am not important enough 4 that 2 happen $$ Jun 13, 2012
?German history teaches us compellingly that isolation would spell disaster,” I don’t agree, and think dissolving the Euro would b best $$ Jun 13, 2012
Spanish, Italian Yields Leap Higher http://t.co/KkIgKyYJ How long, to the point of no return? $$ Jun 12, 2012
Whole world feels soggy $$ RT @agnestcrane: So much for the Spanish bank bailout bounce. Dow down 1.24%, 10-Yr Tsy back below 1.6%. Jun 11, 2012
RT @historysquared: ?We cannot push through a banking union when the French have just cut their retirement age to 60 and we have raised … Jun 11, 2012
Greek Blackouts Risked as Power Companies? Cash Runs Out http://t.co/qtOOodzG When does Greece finally realize their nation has failed? $$ Jun 11, 2012
Italy Moves Into Debt-Crisis Crosshairs After Spain http://t.co/SDEe8FQm That’s the nature of contagion; In the EU contagion is ragin’ $$ Jun 11, 2012
+1 $$ RT @Queen_Europe: Well, the Spanish might be too big to bail but at least they hold their press conferences on time. #BeingGerman Jun 09, 2012

Energy

Venezuela’s Massive Oil Reserves ‘Irrelevant’? http://t.co/rhEZlZXJ Highlights Chavez’s mismanagement of industry, especially crude oil $$ Jun 15, 2012
Nationalised oil can deliver output growth http://t.co/o0ssVqXb Overly laudatory piece praising the virtues of state-run oil companies $$ Jun 15, 2012
Unconventional oil to alter geopolitical balance http://t.co/RABAp9FT Balance may get tilted, but I would not expect self-sufficiency $$ Jun 14, 2012

Financial Sector

Duke, GE Tempt Savers With Higher Yield Than Money Funds http://t.co/3HJ3BKzK I would be careful; single creditor risk w/no gtees $$ Jun 16, 2012
Jamie Dimon Welcomes You to the Next Financial Crisis http://t.co/6oyULAic Could $JPM make $$ anticipating EZone finl crisis? from @moorehn Jun 15, 2012
Why it’s time for higher interest rates http://t.co/xjmZMNub Sheila Bair takes on Paul Krugman & Ben Bernanke’s overly loose $$ policy Jun 15, 2012
Americans See Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years http://t.co/Yq5nHxtn Another bright spot, but still lotta mtges r inverted $$ Jun 14, 2012
Large Institutions Discuss New Marketplace for Bonds http://t.co/t9j4sEtk Few holders, large lot sizes, usually self-liquidating $$ Jun 14, 2012
Private Equity Has 2 Much Money to Spend on Homes http://t.co/VPToSU8I Don’t get how many residences can b managed @ reasonable expense $$ Jun 14, 2012
@mickwe Thanks, Mick, I get it. I have “traded” illiquid securities in my life and have a feel for when claims r invalid. $$ Jun 13, 2012
Mortgages Beating Junk Bonds as Homes Top Europe http://t.co/HTjhcz7T Mkt more accepting of nonconforming mtge risk than Eurozone or junk Jun 13, 2012
‘ @GaelicTorus Cool, hexadecimal yields. There are only 10 types of people in the world, those that get binary, and those that don’t $$ Jun 12, 2012
Loophole at MF Global Is Headache for Regulators http://t.co/P1xUc1Y5 Except Corzine, senior execs weren’t registered w/regulators $$ Jun 12, 2012
Why do I get so many pump&dump scams in the mail? I’m getting tired of the liars that call themselves analysts who profit from promoting $$ Jun 12, 2012
In other words, the crisis hit people who thought they were well-off because of overpriced housing assets; this really isn’t news $$ Jun 12, 2012
Family Net Worth Fell Almost 40% Between 2007-2010 http://t.co/W4rfdy1o Effect largest on 2nd wealthiest quintile $$ Jun 12, 2012
Wrong: Hedges’ Assets: $5 Trillion http://t.co/1fcWfhWK Mkt habitat 4 HFs limited by relatively efficient mkts & volatility avoidance $$ Jun 12, 2012
Banks seek to offload risk on insurers http://t.co/6laka8hb Check my comment at the end; I am dubious that this would work. $$ Jun 12, 2012
Panel Finds U.S. and Europe Behind Schedule on Financial Rules http://t.co/zGlSjrG6 Not too surprising regulating financials is complex $$ Jun 11, 2012
Bond Bubble Dismissed as Low Yields Echo Pimco?s New Normal http://t.co/lRtwy360 How do you guarantee receiving value in the future? $$ Jun 11, 2012
Need Money? Just Ask Your Customers http://t.co/Ce6pj7QL Clever move by companies raising $$, but people who lend to them r patsies $$ Jun 11, 2012

Rest of the World

With Tax Deal, Japan Deals Initial Blow to Big Debt Problem http://t.co/U5srcgjK Japan still has to fight their population shrinking $$ Jun 16, 2012
Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Says Japan May Default by 2017 http://t.co/n0G6TBAC Disagree that Japan will precede Eurozone $$ $FXY Jun 15, 2012
Rain, Pests Imperil India?s Wheat Crop as Warehouses Full http://t.co/Qib0xsck What 2do w/a bumper crop that came at the wrong time? $$ Jun 14, 2012

Political

Harvey Golub: A Simple Tax Code Is a Fair Tax Code http://t.co/hwUwbVfE Similar2my proposals: focuses on defn of income, not tax rates $$ Jun 15, 2012
Scalia represents the Constitution, which is against Obama and Bush’s Imperial Presidency views. He may be sarcastic? http://t.co/rEc5icLe Jun 15, 2012
Inequality: It?s Even Worse Than We Thought http://t.co/hMkbGXBp Highlights Warren Buffett’s ability to avoid capital gains taxation. $$ Jun 14, 2012
That said, inequality is unavoidable in a productive society, because some people work harder or smarter than others $$ Jun 14, 2012
@StockTwits It’s really difficult to get a muni bond to default. Ch 9 allowed in 48% of states, even then state approval sometimes needed $$ Jun 14, 2012
Medicaid Fraud Audits Cost Five Times Amount U.S. Found http://t.co/E3Z5d2zt Can’t win 4 losing here. How to fight Medicare fraud? $$ Jun 14, 2012
Romney Aide Oversees Fundraising That Makes Him Cash, Too http://t.co/mMQdDf7e Zwick definitely works hard, but he gets a lot for it. $$ Jun 13, 2012
‘ @FrankButcherr If something similar happened in an SEC-regulated context, charges could b brought. But I am not an expert here. $$ #CFTC Jun 12, 2012
Obama to Revisit Economic Debate http://t.co/AVbVrgzV A Presidency of Excuses http://t.co/6gv8rkT1 Is fiscal multiplier positive? $$ Jun 12, 2012
Odd if there is no CFTC regulation that says if you acting in a regulated capacity but you aren’t registered to do so, that’s not a crime $$ Jun 12, 2012
States Remain Cautious Even as Finances Improve http://t.co/hAHCBq8F Things better but c this pensions article http://t.co/RQ4PMswj $$ Jun 12, 2012
Familiar w/author; good guy knows his stuff RT @jasonzweigwsj: who is to blame for the state & municipal budget crisis? http://t.co/YMkU2a9h Jun 12, 2012
Obama?s formula for more economic growth? More government http://t.co/eMw5UYiR Obama only has hammer; everything looks like a nail to him $$ Jun 11, 2012
@lorriebarkins My friend Cody Willard would say,”flip it,” so I say, “teach them to vote against Republicans and Democrats.” Both r fools $$ Jun 10, 2012

Company & Industry News

Truckers as Leading Indicator Show Stable U.S. Economic Growth http://t.co/irRAJpNm Bright spot amid punk economic conditions $$ Jun 14, 2012
GM’s Chief Labors to Get Rebuilt Car Maker Into Gear http://t.co/dFmKObdy New $GM was not in bankruptcy long enough 2 kill old GM $$ Jun 12, 2012
RT @ampressman: @AlephBlog They’re saying it now so justices can point to it in fantasy opinions, just like the majority in Citizens United Jun 12, 2012
Wrong: Insurers Stand Firm on Benefits http://t.co/aQ0NxDiu These changes will disappear due2 competitive pressure post-strikedown $$ Jun 12, 2012
Patents may not be as valuable post-Posner’s ruling in the $GOOG – $AAPL trial. Can’t patent basic things. http://t.co/L4rIhlkc $$ Jun 12, 2012
Companies Shape Curricula in New University Partnerships http://t.co/LhkAI3qi Good in some ways; wonder if this limits creativity? $$ Jun 11, 2012
Best Time for Best Buy Bid Now as Founder Exits http://t.co/41B34pdm Really doubt $BBY goes private; deteriorating erns, internet competes Jun 11, 2012
+1 RT @StockTwits: Love This! – Famous judge spikes $AAPL v $GOOG case, calls patent *system ?dysfunctional? http://t.co/WXOjNmmi via @gigaom Jun 09, 2012

China

China one-child policy leads to forced abortions, mothers’ deaths http://t.co/JiwypM8q Yes, forced abortions in China & don’t care 4 moms $$ Jun 16, 2012

Market Factors

Foreigners Snap Up Properties in the U.S. http://t.co/4oeyYAey Offers wealthy foreigners options in a crisis & for vacations/college $$ Jun 12, 2012
Junk Yields Fail to Deter Investors Seeing No Recession http://t.co/YPeNc1HP Remember, the junk bond mkt works on a yield not spread basis Jun 12, 2012
@fuzzyinvesticle @dpinsen I put more trust in the Q-ratio, CAPE, Price/Resources, & @eddyelfenbein ‘s view stock market as a bond measure $$ Jun 12, 2012
The Two Reasons Stocks Won’t Get as Cheap as They Did in 1982 http://t.co/QXXjdUCc Reasons: low int rates, high buybacks. Not convinced $$ Jun 11, 2012
Counting on an Inheritance? Count Again. http://t.co/1Z0cnjkl Far more likely that u will support your parents than receive a bequest $$ Jun 11, 2012
Impressed w/ @saraeisenFX Asks great questions of Marc Faber http://t.co/pgDzHIhf & George Papandreou http://t.co/hgn8K Buy #video $$ Jun 11, 2012
@newrulesinvest I also admire and voted for Terrance Odean & Jason Zweig; they are bright men who deserve attention by all. $$ Jun 11, 2012
@BoydRoddy Thank you Roddy, and I am honored to be mentioned in the same sentence as the estimable @John_Hempton. $$ Jun 11, 2012
. @lorriebarkins I teach people about money so that they will b wiser; wise people r less easily taken by hucksters & popular fads $$ Jun 10, 2012

Miscellaneous

Just felt weird, but I laughed $$ RT @ReformedBroker: We Are All Rajat Gupta Now. Not sure what that means, just felt right. Jun 15, 2012
‘ @GaelicTorus It’s my opinion that markets don’t create liquidity; they reflect the native liquidity of the asset being traded $$ #testidea Jun 14, 2012
@Pfro That’s not my experience. We have come so far on racism in the US that my adopted black children haven’t experienced it. $$ Jun 12, 2012
RT @ToddSullivan: Keep hearing people tell High School Grads “these are the best years of your life” …what a terrible message to send … Jun 11, 2012
RE: @wstreetallstars Wow, Cody, very glad that you survived.? What an ordeal.? Praying for you, and those near you. http://t.co/HcuU6R89 Jun 11, 2012
@asymmetricinfo Brings meaning to the phrase “Lied like a finance minister on the eve of the devaluation.” Jun 11, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 9 June 2012 by David Merkel

US State Economics

State Politicians and the Public Pension Cookie Jar http://t.co/NLyWlK2X Politicians don’t cut public pensions b/c they pad own pensions $$ Jun 09, 2012
North Las Vegas Crisis Shows Fragility of Nevada Economy http://t.co/sCnrcmRk Moral laxity of Vegas invites elements that lead2trouble $$ Jun 09, 2012
Wrong: What Scott Walker can teach Barack Obama http://t.co/lpO5hETn When Walker campaigned he did not know he would have a majority in +1/2 Jun 06, 2012
both houses of the legislature. He seized the opportunity & did something bold in order to fix Wisconsin’s finances. Result: Survives recall Jun 06, 2012

US Fiscal Policy

U.S. House May Split Up Package of Expired Tax Breaks http://t.co/hXcmb1Ec Good idea; let each tax break stand on its own &b abolished. $$ Jun 09, 2012
True Capitalists Are Pro-Market, Not Pro-Business http://t.co/HVQjkfk2 Get business special interests out of tax code & govt subsidies $$ Jun 08, 2012
Senate Dealmaker Baucus Turns to Rewrite of US Tax Code http://t.co/naa2hePj Baucus is going to try to gore everyone equally, maybe? $$ Jun 08, 2012
RT @TheOneDave: True capitalists are pro-market rather than pro-business, according to Yale’s Stephen Carter: http://t.co/vQQ64YDa via @ … Jun 08, 2012
Americans Cling to Jobs as U.S. Workforce Dynamism Fades http://t.co/acaAmcGm Inverted Mtge, 2 earners, ec uncertainty reduce flexibility $$ Jun 08, 2012
Teachers Unions Have a Popularity Problem http://t.co/QGqzD8Ys Pct of electorate backing rights of teachers 2 collectively bargain falls $$ Jun 05, 2012
Monetary Aid Coming as Wal-Mart Helps Housing http://t.co/pBBoiRH6 Mixed Bag: QE3, Youth unemployment & being near a WalMart boosts home $$ Jun 04, 2012
U.S. Multinationals Lobby to Alter Tax Rules They Sought http://t.co/7maKR41m Would be better to eliminate, & raise taxes on divs & CGs $$ Jun 04, 2012

US Mortgages & Real Estate

Mortgage Rates Hit New Low, 30-Year Drops to 3.67% http://t.co/BLQGkosE Because housing is not recovering, mtge rates continue to fall $$ Jun 08, 2012
FHA Turns to Investors as Losses Continue to Rise http://t.co/c73e01TU US Govt messes up another lending guarantee area. They always do $$ Jun 08, 2012

Asia

Strong Yen Won?t Survive Japan?s Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/e7P6RyFl Shilling argues that Japan will suffer as it ages & sells govt debt $$ Jun 09, 2012
Ikea to Consider India Entry, Plans More China Stores http://t.co/lfrvVgTY Many difficulties setting up biz in overregulated India $$ Jun 08, 2012
Japan Confronts Flight to Quality With Brutal Yen http://t.co/bWj62zo3 Wondering when the “flight to quality” may no longer benefit Japan $$ Jun 07, 2012
China Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008 http://t.co/7bIbIdUd Unlikely to do much to stimulate, not much demand 4 loans now $$ Jun 07, 2012
Bad News Piles Up for China’s Economy http://t.co/coT0mfgf Repeated cycles of malinvestment are finally hitting tipping point of failure $$ Jun 07, 2012
Keep tight stops RT @mercenaryjack: Contrarian buy signal $USDJPY RT Japan Confronts Flight to Quality With Brutal Yen http://t.co/D98ax8rH Jun 07, 2012
Japan?s Debt Sustains a Deflationary Depression http://t.co/6sUCexpl As Japan ages & shrinks, will be hard 4 it to maintain economy $$ Jun 05, 2012
Bob Fu: The Pastor of China’s Underground Railroad http://t.co/1HXIypo5 Fascinating tale of life in China & influencing China from outside Jun 04, 2012

?Politics

Brown Challenged Over Dodd-Frank http://t.co/UsRpt5tf Scott Brown best chance at election: pro-business moderate; paint Warren extremist $$ Jun 08, 2012
What’s Changed After Wisconsin http://t.co/rTa0vaWi Don’t normally link2 Peggy Noonan, but the last line was quite a stinger. Jun 08, 2012
“Because Bill Clinton loves politics, he hates losers. Maybe he just can’t resist sticking it to them a little, when he gets a chance.” $$ + Jun 08, 2012
Romney Executive Style Forged in Faith He Rarely Mentions http://t.co/SOOSDnwI He has 2b quiet; there is no upside explaining Mormonism $$ Jun 08, 2012
Hollande Gets Crisis-Protection Tips From Business-Friendly Lyon http://t.co/4emjSYXn Interesting piece; Lyon businessmen guide Socialism $$ Jun 08, 2012
Walker Bets on Brats to Heal Wisconsin as Praise Pours In http://t.co/9Kto2qIA Smart move on Walker’s part after a bitter election fight $$ Jun 08, 2012
Chavez Losing Grip on ?Benjamin? as U.S. Dollars Sought http://t.co/YQ9aLNTp Thier’s law in action in Venezuela http://t.co/mNNp2KzJ $$ Jun 08, 2012
Congressman to Bernanke: Take QE3 Off the Table http://t.co/QpQnU0BZ I’m sorry, but the Fed doesn’t listen 2 Congress; they’re above that $$ Jun 07, 2012
Bernanke Cites Risks, but Doesn’t Signal Action http://t.co/Ew9Nc2K8 Bernanke is a dove, but does not like to telegraph views, only leak $$ Jun 07, 2012
French, Greek Unemployment Rise http://t.co/vKfvrwWY Highest jobless rate in France in a decade and a record unemployment rate in Greece $$ Jun 07, 2012
Hollande Deficit Vow Lures Investors to French Debt http://t.co/25CZUhHS I’ll believe it when I c it. What taxes rise & programs cut? $$ Jun 07, 2012
Merkel Allies Signal Progress on Fund to Pool Debts http://t.co/p8UGaOXr Don’t see how this works economically or politically long-term $$ Jun 07, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Bloomberg’s regulation fails one basic test: “I’d like two sodas, please.”? Very dumb, and he went? http://t.co/GphkCClc Jun 07, 2012

?? Student Loans Held by the Federal Government http://t.co/IsW6eywX When the govt enters a lending business, it typically creates a bubble $$ Jun 06, 2012

?? Obama’s Debt Boom http://t.co/OsPykK3q $$ borrowed & misspent produces no growth; same 4 QE which inflates goods and Hi-Qual asset prices $$ Jun 06, 2012

Wisconsin Voters Head to Polls in Recall Election http://t.co/9pNJvCsL <2% of WI voters uncertain. Most divisive election I can recall.. $$ Jun 05, 2012
Recall Stirs Passion in a Purple State http://t.co/2NsLiisy I think Wisconsin would b more civil if it weren’t recall election $$ #civilwar Jun 04, 2012

Energy

Oil Heads for Longest Weekly Losing Streak in 13 Years http://t.co/Gx0wPKr4 After oil bubble popped in 2008, we went down to $50, not now $$ Jun 09, 2012
Oil Tankers Squeezed as Rates Drop to Lowest Since ?97 http://t.co/dXFAzMw4 Could go lower; what will the bondholders do w/the boats? $$ 😀 Jun 05, 2012
Romney Aversion to Wind-Power Aid Alienating Republicans http://t.co/V7yp3lHE Good. End *all* energy subsidies, especially ethanol. $$ Jun 05, 2012

Bond Markets

Investors Bail on Junk Bonds http://t.co/Iwk1URn2 This is still early, & we lack notable defaults necessary to have a full-scale panic $$ Jun 09, 2012
A Safe Haven in ‘Cat’ Bonds http://t.co/MbXh1KLB Every fixed income subclass eventually underwrites crud in a mania; still waiting here $$ Jun 07, 2012
MF Global and the Risks Looming in the Repo Market http://t.co/AD8XXOGh Should have been a red flag to see Corzine change the core biz $$ Jun 07, 2012
The TIPS curve has become inverted http://t.co/DN0ZHsbY CPI inflation expectation falling in near term; may justify some dumb move by Fed $$ Jun 06, 2012
Thought experiment: What if PIMCO Hi Inc $PHK 70% prem2NAV did a rights offering giving each share a tradable right 2 buy a share @ par? $$ Jun 05, 2012
Quirks of High-Yield ETFs http://t.co/voVBkmvr Good article; I will follow up w/a piece comparing time- & $$ -weighted returns of bond ETFs Jun 04, 2012
In all of the bond furor of last week, anyone else notice that the real yield on the on-the-run 20-yr TIPS went negative? I didn’t either $$ Jun 04, 2012

Eurozone

I like to think that I am pretty imaginative, so, wow! $$ RT @betandbetter: @AlephBlog and the reality of France is worst than u CAN imagine Jun 07, 2012
The rise and fall of European banking http://t.co/94t9dzk2 Lenders retreat within own borders to minimize losses in breakup scenario $$ Jun 07, 2012
4 reasons why the euro will survive http://t.co/PcDpsERP Too painful, Votersr risk-averse, euro is innovative?? & ECB can handle troubles $$ Jun 07, 2012
Spanish, French Borrowing Costs Diverge http://t.co/X2XfTUem Spain had to cut the size of its auction to make it succeed $$ Jun 07, 2012
My Self-Esteem a Mess Is Refrain for Spain?s Unemployed http://t.co/sV7l8Gbq When the economy turns down many other problems occur $$ Jun 07, 2012
Germany Grapples With Role in Rescue http://t.co/dvkQXL38 Will the rest of Eurozone embrace the idea of a Federal Europe? Open question. $$ Jun 06, 2012
Maybe the solution is to send unemployed Greek, Portugese, Spanish, Italian & Irish workers to Germany, there is low unemployment there $$ Jun 06, 2012
“It has brought untold suffering to Europe” http://t.co/JDvp91eq Interview w/Felix Zuluaf, translated from German, regarding the Eurozone $$ Jun 05, 2012
@JackHBarnes @japhychron Maybe define a euro as exchangeable into fixed %s of subcurrencies, and let the subcurrencies trade; learn new wgts Jun 05, 2012
RT @JackHBarnes: How hard would it be to relaunch sub currencys at the N.C.B level, but have a quote vs the Euro as a whole? Dynamic int … Jun 05, 2012
Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut http://t.co/tkr6No7s Spain auctions 2-yr, 4-yr & 10-yr bonds on 6/7, which will tell us a lot. $$ Jun 05, 2012
Germany refuses Eurobonds: http://t.co/RLqELufX Germany would accept eurobonds if full fiscal/banking unification http://t.co/qXcrvsXh $$ Jun 04, 2012
Portugal Props Up Three Banks http://t.co/xJOpX1yP The Eurozone must either centralize, or break into smaller compeatible units $$ Jun 04, 2012

Companies

Intel Can?t Break TV?s Bundles http://t.co/4RUtMAPi Difficult 2encourage a la carte pricing for television shows; few incentives FD: + $INTC Jun 08, 2012
Pushing the PRAM: when chips just can’t get any smaller http://t.co/G7Tcd6hg Fascinating technologies 4 future shrinkage of storage & NAND $$ Jun 08, 2012
Could value investors be the reason a stock’s cheap? http://t.co/xAMVjAqx No, cheap stock is y value investors show; we don’t make it cheap Jun 08, 2012
Big Customers Are Taking Longer to Pay http://t.co/7JS1Nov0 Causes everyone to seek longer financing terms; not a good sign $$ Jun 07, 2012
The (very) bullish case for the American auto market http://t.co/ukPi2GUj Premature to forecast a boom here; credit is not that good $$ Jun 05, 2012
JPMorgan Faces $4.2B Trading Loss, ISI Forecasts http://t.co/0FPsl5bR $JPM looks cheap here, but is it safe here? Almost tempted 2 buy $$ Jun 05, 2012
Hedges Gone Awry Set Back Chesapeake http://t.co/Kw7gUpOD How many times does a hedger lose $$ speculating? Usually once, the last time 😉 Jun 04, 2012

Monetary Policy

Rely on BB2provide dovish $$ policy RT @cabaum1 Bernanke says nothing without committing to anything http://t.co/qCV9J5SF via @BloombergView Jun 07, 2012
Why Everyone Still Wants Dollars http://t.co/9QbDkaxl $$ hegemony will stop when neomercantilistic nations stop subsidizing exporters via FX Jun 07, 2012
Pimco?s Home-Loan Wager Seen as Prescient on QE3 Odds http://t.co/gr8BmHOr Key Q: if QE3, what will the Fed buy? Tsys, Agys, Mtges, other $$ Jun 07, 2012
@ampressman Monetary policy has not been run properly since Volcker left. $$ Jun 06, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Where is your proof that QE works? A stupid idea thought up by ivory tower economists. Rubbish. http://t.co/Wgzpx01I Jun 06, 2012
@GaelicTorus Sorry, disagree. Fiat monetary policy is constrained by the total resources/productivity of an economy @ a given price level $$ Jun 06, 2012
Bill Gross: Global monetary system may be fatally flawed http://t.co/Hm2kIEFD System doesn’t work well if savers don’t earn more than CPI $$ Jun 06, 2012

Economics

Behind every model is an analogy; behind every datum is history; marry the 2, you have a story. Math obscures, doesn’t reveal econ truth $$ Jun 07, 2012
Wrong: What If Speed Traders Competed on Price? http://t.co/jZm0dlOs Moves to lower the tick size have always led to more games, not less $$ Jun 07, 2012
Are Economics PhDs Learning the Wrong Thing? http://t.co/oT5oH9eK If more Economics depts taught philosophy & history would help fix Econ $$ Jun 07, 2012

Resources

Gold Bugs Defy Bear-Market Threat With Soros Buying http://t.co/Q3g6xOwS Gold does well when real interest rates fall, & vice-versa $$ Jun 06, 2012
Exhausting the Earth’s Resources? Not So Fast http://t.co/OZlc0GS5 It will b a long time b4 mining asteroids will b economic. $$ Jun 05, 2012
Next Frontier: Mining the Ocean Floor http://t.co/o7DAp8Oi After years of discussing it, it is finally happening, w/Glencore buying ores $$ Jun 05, 2012

Miscellaneous

Wall Street to Muppets: Thanks for the Love http://t.co/d0KLKPYF Blunt opening: “The dumb money is back.” Equity mutual funds get $$ inflows Jun 06, 2012
10 Things Law Schools Won’t Tell You http://t.co/l5NcIHBd Most of it boils down to oversupply, high training costs, low quality, job lies $$ Jun 06, 2012
Bristol Immune Drug Success in Cancer May Spur Industry Race http://t.co/kivy3JgW Promising therapy awakens immune system 2fight cancer $$ Jun 05, 2012
NRA-Backed Law Spells Out When Indianans May Open Fire on Police http://t.co/8v922BB2 Law will likely not last long; few corrupt cops $$ Jun 05, 2012
AIG Chief Sees Retirement Age as High as 80 After Crisis http://t.co/VF0thYCp A bit of a tin ear as he relaxes at his Croatian villa $$ Jun 04, 2012
IPads on a Plane Let Scoot Save Fuel by Shedding TV Tons http://t.co/50POpeO2 Never realized the entertainment system weighed so much $$ Jun 04, 2012
Q: What Is New and Scary? A: The Revised GMAT http://t.co/Z0LR8dq4 Nu requires test-takers2read & sort complex charts & analyze much data $$ Jun 04, 2012
Iran and Israel Can Agree on This: Rita Jahanforuz Totally Rocks http://t.co/83HxNwsx Jewish Star Remakes Persian Oldies; Fans in Tehran $$ Jun 04, 2012
European Project Trips China Builder http://t.co/7jtu1Q5M Long tale of woe in Poland from accepting lowball bid from Chinese construction co Jun 04, 2012
Good time had by all $$ MT @interfluidity: a mexican lunch in ellicott city with @interfluidity makes for a delightful afternoon. Jun 04, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 26 May 201226 May 2012 by David Merkel

Market Dynamics

Go Your Own Way: Correlation Breakdown in the Market http://t.co/3Zwpx3kB @japhychron hints at deterioration in US stocks as USD strengthens May 26, 2012
RE: To me it implies that conservative HY investors are running out of places to put money.? Yellow flag. http://t.co/eUSRq8dY May 25, 2012
Vanguard Closes High-Yield Fund ? ETF Alternatives http://t.co/bMmYUMTC Note: ETFs proposed take more credit risk than Vanguard fund does $$ May 24, 2012
Vanguard’s high yield fund was fairly conservative; they may feel strain in the size of their positions relative to t? http://t.co/lLJFeiYc May 24, 2012
RE: They were called the Americus Trusts, sponsored by the Americus Shareowner Service Corp., and they had Scores and? http://t.co/TPNPkL8T May 23, 2012
Wealthy Americans Turn to Trusts to Shield Assets http://t.co/2rKGuNWb Reasons: taxes, liability, avoid probate. Covetous world $$ May 23, 2012
You can say that again, momentum is addictive $$ RT @credittrader: lol – never learn – especially when momentum feels so good haha May 23, 2012
@credittrader I’m well. Fascinating that $JPM didn’t learn from the correlation crisis in 2005; tranche px/corr relationships shift $$ May 23, 2012
IG CDX diverges from S&P500; JPMorgan advocates mean reversion trade http://t.co/FIsOqhBN Long IG spreads vs HY spreads and equities $$ May 23, 2012
Kroll Sees Supplanting S&P in Rating Commercial Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/IrzfQ6cH Gratuitous trash talk on competitor S&P from Kroll $$ May 22, 2012
Treasuries in Longest Winning Streak Since ?98 on Europe http://t.co/EWJkiN5u Everyone knows that Treasury yields can only fall, right? $$ May 20, 2012

Eurozone

Merkel May Be Persuaded on Euro Debt-Sharing Compromise http://t.co/P3yQaN1K H/L misrepresents Merkel; does not seem likely politically May 25, 2012
Indeed, why not? RT @TimABRussell: ?http://t.co/831diM1O Why not just pick the best person for each position regardless of sex, race, etc? May 25, 2012
If a man will not respect his “wife” by marrying & staying with her, why should you expect him to respect women in mo? http://t.co/83lvXtu1 May 25, 2012
Stock Market Performance Versus Dollar http://t.co/mfrXyqvp Difficult for the US stock market to do well when the $$ is strengthening v Euro May 25, 2012
Slim Family Sees European Crisis as Good Time to Invest http://t.co/XZOgx3xX Buy when there is blood running in the streets $$ #slimchance May 25, 2012
Europe Girds for Greek Exit http://t.co/HMfsVt86 Two problems: Can’t kick Greece out & Greece can only leave Eurozone by leaving EU $$ May 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Economic Contraction Deepens http://t.co/b49VctDj Overindebted Eurozone muddles as politics/bureaucracy strangle growth $$ May 24, 2012
EU Chiefs Clash on Euro Bonds as Crisis Summit Bogs Down http://t.co/S1YnHrbM Fiscal Union requires political union; elephant in room $$ May 24, 2012
The Seeds of the EU?s Crisis Were Sown 60 Years Ago http://t.co/SsWQUvGa Overly ambitious EU goal of “ever closer union” leads 2 crisis $$ May 24, 2012
War-Gaming Greek Euro Exit Shows Hazards in 46-Hour Weekend http://t.co/WD7HSbMI Assumes Greek competence & they care about global mkts $$ May 23, 2012
A Greek Exit Could Make the Euro Area Stronger http://t.co/C7v2mDmM Concludes that a Greek exit would lead the rest 2 pull together $$ May 23, 2012
Campaign for Joint Euro Bonds Builds http://t.co/xXAvSU73 Will the core Eurozone countries give up resources to bail out the fringe? $$ May 23, 2012
Europe?s Prisoner?s Dilemma ? LTRO Needs to Continue for Years http://t.co/NldAsVL2 Until govt debt is gone from finl sector?s bal sht $$ May 23, 2012
Germany to Sell Interest-Free Bonds http://t.co/q7ewNqd2 It is good to be king. People give you their money, & they pay for the honor $$ May 22, 2012

US Politics / Economics

Even with a High Court win, Obamacare won’t work http://t.co/NKhyAe56 Failed ideas @ the states will not add up to a successful Federal plan May 26, 2012
USDA Is a Tough Collector When Mortgages Go Bad http://t.co/ZX24InYJ Definitely has different goals than most of the govt re mortgages May 26, 2012
Report: Negative Equity More Widespread Than Previously Thought http://t.co/UkQBpbGY Adds in value of second liens, 31%+ inverted $$ May 24, 2012
Let Mr. Reid look to his own spending extremism.? As for me, let the tax cuts expire, and automatic cuts happen.? Bet? http://t.co/cabthITQ May 22, 2012
Shale Glut Means $1-a-Gallon Savings at the Pump http://t.co/RHlFbT3L Liquefied Natgas would shave $1/gal over diesel for trucking $$ May 22, 2012

China

New Signs of Global Slowdown http://t.co/2o4kFRkD Weak Reports in U.S., Europe and China Suggest Economies Are Slipping in Sync $$ May 26, 2012
@researchpuzzler Pettis is among the best on China. @ritholtz and John Mauldin are good friends. Trends in China r very negative… $$ May 25, 2012
EM investing: check out the grid http://t.co/dIEGJeJC 3Qs How much electricity do they have? Future development? Probability of success? May 24, 2012
China flash PMIs point to contraction, again http://t.co/DZGf3ZZS The number for May is 48.7, compared to 49.3 in April. 7th decline. $$ May 24, 2012
China, North Korea ties hit rough weather http://t.co/r7TlDbux Kim Jong Un needs lessons showing honor2the Suzerain: Chinese Communist Party May 24, 2012
RE: @SoberLook I’ve heard that Chinese electricity consumption has flatlined.? Another straw in the wind. http://t.co/IqAHJCgo May 21, 2012

Companies

Facebook Investor Spending Month?s Salary Exposes Hype http://t.co/eGhCiHXq Please. Stox r risky. High expectation stox r veryrisky $$ $FB May 24, 2012
General Mills Unveils Restructuring, Job Cuts http://t.co/IUHltbai $GIS Budget-conscious US consumers push back against price increases May 23, 2012
Benihana Agrees to $296 Million Buyout http://t.co/YxJtfun3 Agreed 2b acquired by investment firm Angelo Gordon & Co. for about $296M $$ May 23, 2012
The Miracle on Wellington Street http://t.co/DUbSY81d Fairfax Financial Holdings’ tricky transaction for 6.6% of Odyssey Re -> legal trouble May 21, 2012
Barclays to Sell Entire $6.1 Billion BlackRock Investment http://t.co/notUgeFk Basel III rules make it uneconomic to hold as capital $$ May 21, 2012
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Files for Bankruptcy http://t.co/heUuF3gj Bank debt -> New Equity, old Equity -> warrants for 5% $$ May 21, 2012

Financial Sector

JPMorgan Gave Risk Oversight to Museum Head Who Sat on AIG Board http://t.co/INr9ebI5 No banking experts on $JPM ‘s risk ctrl committee May 25, 2012
Goldman to JPMorgan Swap Trades Soar on Risks http://t.co/fvSPysAp A cheap-ish option on systemic risk rising. And not in the eurozone! $$ May 25, 2012
JPMorgan Copper ETF Plan Seen Creating Havoc by Merchant Groups http://t.co/zoJ0BfeM They oppose retail hoarding b/c it hurts them $$ May 24, 2012

Advice Regarding Life

I Wish I Had Known: Don?t Underestimate Compounding In EVERYTHING http://t.co/mIdFf5Dx People overrate their ability to change habits $$ May 26, 2012
Compound Experience, Not Just Interest http://t.co/n6CaWLN0 Early behavior influences later behavior, and the options that will be open 2u May 26, 2012

Berkshire Hathaway

Buffett Says Free News Unsustainable, May Add More Papers http://t.co/medRWMWm Strategy: Buy papers, end free distribution on Internet $$ May 25, 2012
Buffett?s Idiot Challenge Seized by Jain in Premium Hunt http://t.co/89qcKilo Misses how Jain blew it reinsuring life & LTC from Swiss Re May 23, 2012
Don’t get me wrong, Ajit Jain knows more about insurance than me; I’m saying he is not perfect; he does not know all insurance equally $$ May 23, 2012

High Frequency Trading

+1 That would work too RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog how about for all orders, one second minimum life May 24, 2012
Mutual Funds Promised Haven From Speedsters http://t.co/iCFFZXsU I proposed this HFT solution @ BaltimoreCFA 2 1 of those interviewed $$ May 24, 2012

Miscellaneous

The sex slavery stuff makes me sad/angry. I have daughters. $$ RT @moiracathleen: Brothels on Wheels http://t.co/COBuwJbS @leafjohnson May 25, 2012
How a bizarre legal case involving a mysterious billionaire could force 1.2M Canadians 2b married, against their will http://t.co/zv7QJBCz May 24, 2012
Veterans Face Ruin Awaiting Benefits as Wounded Swamp VA http://t.co/W0Ydcu3x Long sad tale: wounded vets not getting enuf disability pay May 24, 2012
Gold Boom Spreading Mercury as 15 Mln Miners Exposed http://t.co/f7oBSo26 Long fascinating article about mercury poisoning in Colombia $$ May 24, 2012
Rust-Belt Babushkas Live Alone as Fewer Remain to Marry http://t.co/ASbsIAMg % of US single person households up ~250% since 1940, 8%->27% May 23, 2012
Private Spacecraft Lifts Off Toward Space Station http://t.co/JlGRR2m0 The sustainable space age has begun, w/private $$ flying rockets May 23, 2012
Fitch Downgrades Japan http://t.co/rITu0126 Blasts the govt 4 taking a “leisurely” approach2solving country’s spiraling debt problems $$ May 23, 2012
Is the College Cave Age About to End? http://t.co/ispDBLTX Thinner slices of “deeper” knowledge produce less relevant research & teaching May 21, 2012
Getting America on a Diet That Works http://t.co/vooh1iNN What’s funny2me is how little agreement there is today on what works in diets $$ May 21, 2012
+1 Fatal Risk RT @ToddSullivan: AMAZING book…one of my favorites RT @alephblog: Please follow my friend @BoydRoddy, who is new to Twitter May 21, 2012
Please follow my friend @BoydRoddy, who is new to Twitter. $$ May 21, 2012
Read my review: ‘The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World’s Top Hedge Funds’ by Maneet Ahuja via @alephblog http://t.co/kJf89aVT May 21, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 19 May 201219 May 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

If Greece Quits Euro, Its Ruin Will Be Pointless http://t.co/2DotggME Suggests Greece will face more pain if leaves E-zone than stays $$ May 17, 2012
Experts Try to Chart Path for Exit From Currency http://t.co/dtIAoo3g Let’s see, where is that manual for unscrambling eggs? Mmm… $$ May 17, 2012
On the E-zone: the politicians, like sorcerer’s apprentices, thought they could reshape Europe; end up fighting forces beyond their power $$ May 17, 2012
The Running of the Bank Depositors http://t.co/WC7aN5LP Governments r smaller than economies, which r smaller than cultures $$ #fightgravity May 17, 2012
Governments are smaller than economies, which are smaller than cultures.? The Eurozone is a huge experiment that igno? http://t.co/YUqGTSLN May 17, 2012
Greek President Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled http://t.co/mx5626V2 If u thot u faced a conversion 2 new drachmas, ud w/d euros2 $$ May 16, 2012
ECB Said to Stick to Current Crisis Stance as Tools Reviewed http://t.co/vSKBTnax No worries; ECB policies r meeting the challenge $$ 😉 May 16, 2012
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for ?Vulture Fund? http://t.co/nrka09y7 While Greece is in disarray, makes full pmt2 hedge fund Dart Management May 15, 2012
Lightning Strike Delays Hollande Trip http://t.co/G0hgIGsP Weird, but he gets to Germany anyway to have a disagreement w/Merkel $$ May 15, 2012
Hazardous Greek-Exit Scenario http://t.co/LZooTMlf WSJ goes through the steps and effects of an orderly Greek exit, should there b1 $$ May 15, 2012
European Officials Warn Greece http://t.co/WJ4Wmk5B No way to kick Greece out; what do you do if they refuse to pay? $$ #enduredefault May 14, 2012

Rest of the World

Hugo Ch?vez’s Enemy No. 1 http://t.co/LtdZXcM7 Henrique Capriles, governor of Miranda state & candidate selected by the united opposition May 19, 2012
Kolatch Bullish on Argentina?s Debt http://t.co/8dfUoRdv When someone is willing to cheat others, he is more likely to cheat you $$ #FTL May 17, 2012
Iranian Rapper Fears for His Life After Fatwa http://t.co/AD27SHZY Interesting how killing ceases 2b murder after cleric issues fatwa $$ May 16, 2012

Bond Markets

US insurers seek $300 mln cat bond cover http://t.co/rNw0b4hu There’s a hard property reinsurance market, so alternatives r attractive $$ May 18, 2012
Junk-Debt ETFs Set Markets ?Abuzz? After Record Trades http://t.co/Zzq4BHV2 New ways of putting biggish HY positions on/off quietly $$ May 18, 2012
@Fullcarry @munilass At least the Treasury yield curve is “out of this world.” Have long Tsys on as a hedge in my bond strat, when2punt? $$ May 17, 2012
Every two years, the annual shareholder filing for the iShares Trust, which holds the big bond ETFs, doubles in size: now 20MB $$ May 15, 2012
RT @Munisrgood: @munilass More room to go. If you subscribe to Hoisington’s predictions, (I do to an extent) 30 yr tsy could be 75-100 l … May 15, 2012
+1 Needle in red zone $$ RT @groditi: HY CEF wavg premium 15%; min -8.27 max 67.3%; +1.1stdevs; sample-size: $11B (40 funds) #YieldChase May 14, 2012
Euro-Zone Fears Drive Bund Yield to Record Low http://t.co/sNntlOYU Opposite risk: Germany might leave EZone; ECB actions disliked $$ May 14, 2012
Euro Officials Begin to Weigh Greek Exit as Euro Weakens http://t.co/nERx6dAG Note the shift, indicates the bailouts may b over 4Greece $$ May 14, 2012

Elderly Poverty

See pg 26 4 details http://t.co/NnS2Jyo2 Figure is low IMO b/c 25% “don’t know” what they have saved. They r prob below $50K, so ~60% <$50K May 17, 2012
Report says “Overall, slightly more than one-third have saved less than $50,000.” http://t.co/NnS2Jyo2 Still thought the % was higher, ~50% May 17, 2012
Same here RT @ballenmo: @AlephBlog @fundmyfund 20%? I?m surprised the number is so low. May 17, 2012
+1 that’s what I think RT @fundmyfund: @AlephBlog 20% of 50 and 60 yr old dont have 50K to their name, not to mention saved for retirement May 17, 2012
Expected worse RT @MoneyMag_Penny 20% of workers in 50s & 60s have saved less than $50,000 for retirement: Transmerica http://t.co/PqWIm74w May 17, 2012

JP Morgan

Lawrence Lindsey: Why Washington Hates Jamie Dimon http://t.co/dZEzVnOq Not a diplomat & does not perform kowtows to politicians $$ $JPM May 18, 2012
For JP Morgan Trader, From ‘Caveman’ to ‘Whale’ http://t.co/U2iXH2uJ It is often dangerous to win, next step is try to win big & fail $$ May 17, 2012
Romney Vowing Dodd-Frank Repeal Hits JPMorgan Risky Trades http://t.co/Y9aMyHR0 Tough sell; existing law had enuf pwr, but regs didn’t use May 14, 2012
The core problems with JPMorgan’s failed trades http://t.co/HktxLRnq When that illiquid, putting positions into runoff only solution $$ May 14, 2012
Dimon Fortress Breached as Push From Hedging to Betting Blows Up http://t.co/Rc5TXU9E $JPM too big relative 2market; hard2mark prices $$ May 14, 2012
Bank Order Led to Losing Trades http://t.co/00llzrIO $JPM ‘s Efforts2Shield Itself From European Market Fallout Prompted Disastrous Bets May 12, 2012

Buffett & Newspapers

Why Warren Buffett is buying newspapers http://t.co/a6qVZAet It certainly isn’t for economic reasons; he overpaid, plain & simple. $$ $BRK.B May 18, 2012
Warren Buffett buys into ‘declining’ newspapers http://t.co/BYmAmiZT $MEG does have TV and data businesses, not sure how much that helps. May 17, 2012
Berkshire Buys Media General Newspapers for $142 Million http://t.co/ISIniNZG add in a $400 million term loan with an rate of 10.5% $$ May 17, 2012

(As an aside, if you read any of my comments on Buffett, newspapers, and Media General, I made the mistake of think that he had bought Media General, when he bought most of their newspapers, a portion of the company, and lent them $400 million at 10.5% with a first priority of payment in bankruptcy.? Now that I realize my mistake, I can?t say whether Buffett got a good, bad, or indifferent deal.? Apologies for the mistake.)

US Economy

?One Recession Away? From Next Bull Market ? John Mauldin http://t.co/WwOL8nj7 5 min interview, short-term bearish, long-term bullish $$ May 17, 2012
Paul Krugman’s Simple — or Is It Simplistic? — Reasoning http://t.co/0lmcAVSQ Is there any level of govt spending or debt that is2much? May 17, 2012
North Dakota Tops US States in Credit Ranking as Florida Rises http://t.co/cttmsatF Amazing what energy & the influx of elderly will do $$ May 17, 2012
North Dakota Tops Alaska in Oil Output http://t.co/Ulo7jzcU The US potentially has more hydrocarbons than Saudi Arabia. TX, ND, AK $$ May 17, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The two papers look pretty good, but would the bureaucracy have the guts to rein in a boom based o? http://t.co/mvScOD74 May 16, 2012
Tom Frost: The Big Danger With Big Banks http://t.co/414ZAkTV Fine, but it was mortgage lending that led the crisis, not invt banking $$ May 16, 2012
When I used to mix sound, there was a knob on my board called “contour.” That’s what QE is to the Fed.? When I would ? http://t.co/DC0O0kjS May 17, 2012
Midwest Sees a Sand Rush http://t.co/815yYdBQ Fracking Spurs Demand for the Stuff, Sparking a Mining Boom?& Vexing Some #midwestboom $$ May 14, 2012

US Politics, Regulation, and Culture

SEC Probes Role of Hedge Fund in CDOs http://t.co/wMUFuoPt Don’t forget the blame due the yield hogs 4 their inadequate due diligence $$ May 17, 2012
Dental Abuse Seen Driven by Private Equity Investments http://t.co/QzEb161T Long article on unscrupulous dentists that harm poor kids 4 $$ May 17, 2012
The creeping disaster for USPS is that as they cut services, they become irrelevant. The internet changes everything? http://t.co/ION20cep May 17, 2012
School-Test Backlash Grows http://t.co/RIiaRg1Z Some Parents, Teachers & Boards Rebel, Saying Education Is Being Stifled $$ #room4both May 16, 2012
Please apply the same logic to the liberal justices of the court, who have flouted the Constitution for far longer. http://t.co/gEsZGazC May 16, 2012
Jerry Brown vs. Chris Christie http://t.co/T0uyb6iC More states r realizing that the road2fiscal hell is paved w/progressive intentions May 15, 2012
California Deficit Swells to $16 Billion, Governor Says http://t.co/LJT9Dl1s & http://t.co/2Rg8E98K CA in self-reinforcing neg spiral $$ May 14, 2012
Obama Hits Romney on Bain as He Raises Wall Street Money http://t.co/09M2hhHK “The pot calls the kettle black.” $$ (has 2ba better phrase) May 14, 2012
Midnight Was Movie Hour, Nap Time in New York Air Tower http://t.co/cNT0C080 Long piece; parts of the FAA r seriously messed up $$ #unions May 12, 2012
Trouble in Coal Country for Obama http://t.co/dJoko2Aj If persists, could mean Obama wins popvote, Romney win the election $$ #kingcoal May 12, 2012

Companies

Tsst… $COP is no longer in the refining biz, it spun of $PSX which is.? FD: +COP, +PSX $$ Oh, and selling the comp? http://t.co/LxFTP91s May 17, 2012
Facebook ($FB) announces that they will no longer accept General Motors ($GM) cars in exchange 4 advertising exposure $$ 😉 #lamejoke May 15, 2012
Avon Shares Tumble After Coty Pulls Bid http://t.co/SVZ4zZgN Coty might b better off creating the parts of $AVP it wants organically $$ May 15, 2012
Margin Call: The Most Exposed http://t.co/4v2IsU16 Interesting what CEOs have borrowed against shares of the companies that they run $$ May 15, 2012
Yahoo CEO’s resignation spotlights tech action http://t.co/mUF19hRa We keep the board of $YHOO around 2make that of $HPQ happy. FD +HPQ May 14, 2012

Miscellaneous

Paper Plane Champ Watches His Record Fly, Fly Away http://t.co/zdPMR62e Division of labor in design & tossing-> paper airplane record $$ May 18, 2012
@ReformedBroker You really had lunch w/Mauldin? Cool, I know he is friends w/ @ritholtz ; I just reviewed his recent “Little Book.” $$ May 17, 2012
When people get 2 deep into a sliver of knowledge, they get dumb RT @jasonzweigwsj: is your sense of self an illusion? http://t.co/PHUXLmdB May 17, 2012
5. They sometimes bring specialized knowledge of the topic at hand. 6. They tend to write for users, not reviewers o? http://t.co/T3oElbxQ May 17, 2012
Going for Gold?or Whatever http://t.co/F6kSto8O Secret to an Aging Olympian’s Endurance: Don’t Let Training Get in the Way of Fun $$ May 16, 2012
When you show up DD, you usually make me smile $$ RT @DoubleDeuce: Wisdom: “try to convince, don?t gripe” by @AlephBlog http://t.co/kDwSKgYJ May 15, 2012
?Trigger-Happy? Investors Boost IPO Insurance Through Litigation http://t.co/GQKdNia3 Looks like Errors & Omissions coverage applied 2IPOs May 14, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 12 May 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

Danske Bank?s Patience With Moody?s Evaporates http://t.co/eGbf3kV5 Questions over willingness of Denmark to provide support in a crisis. May 11, 2012
CIC Stops Buying Europe Government Debt on Crisis Concern http://t.co/dljk9Tau Overblown; China will return to funding the Eurozone $$ May 10, 2012
Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation http://t.co/P7U4LSpG Depends on how well Core EZone banks have divested Greece $$ May 10, 2012
Spanish Banks Erode Creditors With ECB Loans http://t.co/HaEx3bgT Better collateral highly encumbered; Unsec debts implicitly subord 2 ECB May 10, 2012
Greece Euro-Exit Debate Goes Public http://t.co/0xOgsa7G Core Eurozone wrestles w/how to kick Greece out, even though they can’t. $$ May 10, 2012
How a Radical Greek Rescue Plan Fell Short http://t.co/Ds0589IG Greece is failing as a culture due2 corruption; no rescue would work $$ May 10, 2012
Denmark?s Banks Endure Writedown Shock Delaying Recovery http://t.co/A2Vdpymn Good sign on Denmark; take pain early -> in good shape $$ May 10, 2012
Greek Election Surprise Rejects ?Barbarism? of Bailout Austerity http://t.co/oX0nt5SF Growth is magic, magic I tell u! Just invoke it! $$ May 08, 2012
Merkozy End Means Franco-German Gulf; Greek Voters Rebel http://t.co/iCd0Cs6l Loss of Sarkozy may not b bad, but Greek paralysis will b $$ May 08, 2012
Francois Hollande has ten weeks to avert a French bond crisis http://t.co/3SEAWJB5 When few adults r in the room the children run wild $$ May 08, 2012
Challenge to Austerity, And Germany, Is Sharpened http://t.co/BWbgQJ85 The odds have risen that Germany will leave the Eurozone $$ May 08, 2012
Obvious but it needs 2b said $$ RT @Hawk100Clemens: Mauldin tells #CFA12 every monetary union in history has failed. May 07, 2012
France faces 40pc house price slump http://t.co/nPuMaVnJ If French banks have trouble now, just wait until the bad mortgage debt hits $$ May 06, 2012

JP Morgan

What Beached the London Whale? Credit Indices http://t.co/JKFxfaMb Crosshedging long credit risk by buying protection on an index? $$ May 11, 2012
J.P. Morgan Trades In Its Crown http://t.co/QUJ6hmoA That goes for firms and CEOs as well: $JPM and Jamie Dimon will not get free passes May 11, 2012
Drew Built 30-Yr JPMorgan Career Embracing Risk http://t.co/uocyyVC1 Lifetime 2build reputation; few years 2destroy it; revealed: 1 day $$ May 11, 2012
And the best way to reduce risk is to lower leverage & raise cash $$ RT @marydchilds: “The best way to hedge something is to get rid of it.” May 11, 2012

Facebook

Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before IPO http://t.co/kL1VQYXU Cuts down on the tax bill; discount prior 2 IPO $$ May 11, 2012
Facebook IPO Said to Get Weaker-Than-Forecast Demand http://t.co/ktK5Bgun $FB faces slowing revenue growth, order books 4 IPO go slack $$ May 11, 2012

Miscellaneous

Google?s Brin Makes Strides in Hunt for Parkinson?s Cure http://t.co/YvL4LUNA He may get it one day; his Mother already has Parkinson’s $$ May 11, 2012
And also for those who call vegetables “veggies?” RT @jasonWSJ: Can we impose a $40 fine on dudes who refer to sandwiches as “sammies”? May 10, 2012
Firefox browser group irked with Microsoft, Windows 8 http://t.co/tBZ9GFuw Only Internet Explorer runs on Windows 8; expect some lawsuits $$ May 10, 2012
Aluminum Buyers in Japan to Pay Record Fee on Supply Drop http://t.co/7AVU1knI Smelting capacity reduced, China buys more, Japan pays up May 10, 2012
@RobTheStreet A lot depends on the definition of marriage, Would you allow people to marry inanimate objects, animals, or multiple parties? May 09, 2012
Brookstone to sell Lilliputian portable power chargers, this year http://t.co/FnSvdfOw Impressive technology if it works. $$ May 08, 2012
Economy Reshapes Wisconsin Recall Vote http://t.co/G0OetHhV My wife and father were forced in2 unions by collectivist brutes. Go Walker! May 08, 2012
Father?s Shadow as Transit Leader Hard to Evade for Shuster http://t.co/0FAZUqd4 Bud Shuster is a jerk, forcing us through Breezewood $$ May 08, 2012
Kellogg?s Kashi Targeted as Web Food Fighting Escalates http://t.co/BNhf5294 We need 2 send a lot of people back 4 science reeducation May 08, 2012

Rest of the World

Sony, Panasonic Fall to 30-Year Lows as TV Losses Mount http://t.co/Euo37RLQ Sold Panasonic after reviewing uneconomic “green” agenda $$ May 11, 2012
Kim Jong Un Bashes ?Pathetic? North Korea Fun Park http://t.co/gb4S9HBc He should know; he lived outside NK, where there is real fun $$ May 10, 2012
Sukhoi SuperJet Disappears During Indonesia Demo Flight http://t.co/0JrxAkAw Another sign of degraded Russian abilities in aerospace $$ May 10, 2012
Bad H/L: Shooting to Kill Pirates Risks Blackwater Moment http://t.co/laW55VEo Correct H/L: Hiring Armed Guards protects cargoes &crews $$ May 10, 2012
Drug-Defying Germs From India Speed Post-Antibiotic Era http://t.co/XGeno5mf Long. Scariest article of the day; wash your hands w/soap $$ May 08, 2012
Israel Pyramid Rules Turn Insurers Into Buyout Targets http://t.co/4tXBqehx Interesting:

Israel is limiting holding company levels to 3 $$ May 10, 2012

UK Pay Protests Oust Aviva Chief http://t.co/WKVdmQGM I remember when they overpaid for Amerus Life in the US; sign of bad management $$ May 10, 2012

Energy

RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog Methinks we’ll need to see some epic blowouts in natgas space (ha ha) before supply/demand can come back i … May 10, 2012
Chesapeake Deals Carry $1.4 Billion in Undisclosed Liability http://t.co/UFohsseZ $CHK May b worth a look when things stop getting worse May 10, 2012
When the Exxon way stops working http://t.co/BgN2zLO6 $XOM learns 2b more cooperative w/foreign countries where it wants 2 explore 4 oil $$ May 08, 2012
Argentina Taps Ex-Schlumberger Executive Galuccio to Run YPF http://t.co/j5P1oyoS Possibly a good choice to run the purloined company $$ May 08, 2012

Fixed Income

Still time to make money in Treasury bonds http://t.co/ABl43gzM The depressionary bull case 4 long T-bonds; D. Rosenberg & Lacy Hunt $$ May 10, 2012
Why Emerging Market Corporate Bond ETFs are Hot http://t.co/tWvz0sif High USD yield, but be wary. Laws governing creditor rights vary $$ May 10, 2012
In other words, the 30-year Tsy sold well today b/c some seek Depression insurance & others hedge convexity or immunize long liabilities $$ May 10, 2012
Treasuries Pare Losses as Europe Concern Aids Sale http://t.co/C7jytF08 Investors make sure they get income 4 30-yrs & $$ back when old May 10, 2012
S&P Warns Of $46T Perfect Credit Storm http://t.co/jZTbvy42 If companies have adequate cash flows from operations, this is not an issue. May 10, 2012

Canada

In Canada, Alternate Currency Keeps Traction With Fans http://t.co/ePyXRH1f Paper Money, Issued by Canadian Tire, Is Popular Way 2Pay $$ May 11, 2012
Revisit after their housing bubble pops RT @vgmac: There is a lot of love for Canada’s banking system here at the Chicago Fed conferences $$ May 10, 2012
@vgmac Then again, at the first Treasury/blogger summit I told them they should imitate the Canadian regulators and central bankers. #canada May 10, 2012
Canada Housing Bubble Concern Shown in Insurer Query http://t.co/kGHcqgDE Should the Canadian govt try2exit the mortgage insurance biz? $$ May 10, 2012
CMHC Says Capital Levels “Double” OSFI Requirements http://t.co/R4p5TuBO F&F also had capital far higher than their disaster level $$ May 08, 2012

Cisco Systems

Cisco shares drop on tech spending worries http://t.co/06maBaX4 Global economic weakness feeds into tech firms that sell much abroad $$ May 10, 2012
@ampressman Cramer said something like, “It’s not a growth company if they have to talk about the economy, weather, industry factors, etc.” May 10, 2012
@ampressman $AAPL is a growth company, at least for now, $CSCO was a growth company somewhere in the last 15 years… May 10, 2012

Delta Air Lines

Buy Delta Air Lines: Trainer Refinery Purchase & Improving Financials Will Lift The Stock http://t.co/W7YeEmgb Poorly reasoned thesis $$ May 08, 2012
Remember when $DD bot Conoco? There would b synergies in petrochemicals. $DD bot it at the peak, spit it out at the bottom $$ #limitscope May 08, 2012
$DAL substitutes risk in jet fuel pricing 4 risks in crude oil, gasoline, heating oil prices, & operational risk in a biz it doesn’t know $$ May 08, 2012
@The_Analyst Agreed, though enough capacity has come out of the industry through mergers that they might finally c some pricing power $$ May 08, 2012

US Housing

5 Pitfalls of Home Refinancing http://t.co/ZxGUF3HM Longer maturity, Closing costs, Contract terms, Hidden fees, Appraisals $$ May 10, 2012
Look Who?s Pushing Homeowners Off the Foreclosure Cliff http://t.co/T6CBkUAt Mtge docs exist to protect the lender’s property interest $$ May 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Read any mortgage contract; it exists to protect the rights of lenders, including protecting the m? http://t.co/ob9eIcBt May 08, 2012
No Repeating Slowdown Seen by U.S. With Banks to Housing http://t.co/A0LNwrjh While hi % of mtges r underwater, finl stress will remain $$ May 08, 2012
Pimco Housing Bear Kiesel Says It?s Time to Start Buying http://t.co/f3zaBNZA He assumes dark supply will hang on for higher prices. $$ May 06, 2012

US Regulation

Maybe to be perfectly fair, the government releases the data on a website at midnight ET, long before the US markets ? http://t.co/9Zqniljs May 10, 2012
A Jury of Peers for Broker Disputes http://t.co/5Ly14oKJ The playing field may be more even now; odds r still stacked against investors May 10, 2012
Congress Seeks Postal Overhaul While Making It Impossible http://t.co/lvcEBxmw The real danger is after reduction, PS is less relevant $$ May 10, 2012
US Millionaires Told Go Away as Tax Evasion Rule Looms http://t.co/Tx6lr1Bl Fewer foreign banks will accept accts w/US citizens/firms $$ May 10, 2012

Berkshire Hathaway

Biggest Buffett Targets Seen Spanning Deere to Henkel http://t.co/dLbp9pic Muses about what Buffett would buy 2 eclipse BNSF $$ May 08, 2012
+1 RT @Kevin_Holloway: Good read on possibilities of recent $BRK.B purchases among some other gd thoughts by @AlephBlog http://t.co/xkN8SlXu May 08, 2012
Deep in the Insurance Weeds at Berkshire Hathaway http://t.co/GkH9oWBo This helps explain the life reinsurance losses at $BRKB. LTC $$ May 08, 2012
Buffett understands tech. But he searches for revenue streams that can’t easily be obsoleted. $AAPL & $GOOG could be ? http://t.co/VyOnKUTy May 07, 2012

Market Dynamics

World?s Simplest Stock Valuation Measure http://t.co/OvmQTmHs Growth Rate/2 + 8 = PE Ratio; @eddyelfenbein & his conservative PE formula $$ May 10, 2012
Dole Food Breakup Seen Bearing Fruit With 58% Return http://t.co/C4SvaNvw Can $DOLE become a high margin biz, & pay down debt? $$ May 10, 2012

Financial Sector

What about front-running? $$ RT @abnormalreturns: @MebFaber: Nail in the Mutual Fund Coffin (NAV Based ETF Trading) http://t.co/SZ3CbIY3 May 08, 2012
BTW, for those holding dividend funds, back in 1994, stock managers following a yield strategy got crushed. $$ #annushorribilisforbonds May 08, 2012
The Dangers of Dividend Funds http://t.co/5WSdEFwN Dividend funds may b safer than other stock funds, r still stock funds w/real risk $$ May 08, 2012
True 4 many $$ RT @ReformedBroker: ?Daddy, what do you do at your job?? http://t.co/mxrcVyhm May 08, 2012
BofA?s New Black-Belt Data Chief Targets Blinding Gaps http://t.co/P60yhtAk Merger integration didn’t happen in $BAC ‘s IT areas $$ #mess May 08, 2012
Billion-Dollar Traders Quit Wall Street for Hedge Funds http://t.co/2yFJ2JXr Volcker Rule reducing dealer-driven market liquidity $$ May 08, 2012
Flash-Crash Story Looks More Like a Fairy Tale http://t.co/0mBQDGKZ Still a mystery; but4any self-feeding panic, players leaning wrong way May 08, 2012
Almost Half of Finance Graduates Seek New Jobs, PwC Says http://t.co/YUuH9KJl The bubble in financial jobs has popped, decamp 2 other inds May 08, 2012
?Where is Everybody?? http://t.co/7YPOcMUb Little retail participation is bullish; it means that only the relatively smart $$ is playing May 08, 2012
50 Ways to Restore Trust in the Investment Industry http://t.co/VHhllKyp The CFA Institute gathers opinions from members on cleaning up $$ May 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Equity is more expensive than other types of bank capital; raising the cost of capital means fewer? http://t.co/qPvVygll May 07, 2012
Heat’s on Triparty Repos http://t.co/7Jk7DrTS Fed Is Pressing Big Players to Reduce Exposures to $1.7 Trillion Market $$ May 06, 2012

Company Specific

How Hewlett-Packard lost its way http://t.co/pA683e3H Very long & ugly article about board & mgmt dysfunction @ $HPQ. FD: +$HPQ 4 me&clients May 08, 2012
A Real Concern For Apple?s Stock: Telecom Carriers Threaten to Kill Subsidies on Phones http://t.co/JlQwSDAq Interesting thesis $$ May 08, 2012
AMR Said to Seek More Overseas Flights as Suitor Circles http://t.co/eUHdHju4 $LCC wins more backing, could allow filing another plan $$ May 08, 2012

Politics

Exodus From Tiburon to Texarkana Is Exaggerated http://t.co/nsyd3QjF Truth is, people & firms r sticky, until they finally get fed up! $$ May 10, 2012
If we do not discipline ourselves, the bond market will discipline us $$ RT @carney: Why the left will keeping winning. http://t.co/kJcfgEt4 May 08, 2012
Too bad, we need a better opponent to Obama $$ RT @BloombergNews: Breaking: Santorum Endorses Former Rival Romney as Republican Nominee May 08, 2012
Don’t Worry (About GDP), Be Happy http://t.co/BaSDMbTM GDP approximates economic growth; more subjective progress measures r ridiculous May 08, 2012
@justinwolfers Last thing we need on the Fed is another neoclassical Ph. D. economist. Let’s try some brainy generalists, value investors $$ May 07, 2012
@GaelicTorus @justinwolfers All I am saying is value investors understand how the economy works better than neoclassical economists do $$ May 07, 2012
Disabled Americans Shrink Size of U.S. Labor Force http://t.co/NX6ZzCjK I still resent former neighbor on SSD, putting Xmas lights on roof May 06, 2012
But are they ending with an accrual basis surplus, not just a cash surplus? That’s the question. http://t.co/uGa7WX14 May 06, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 5 May 2012 by David Merkel

Market Dynamics

On Paradigm Shifts http://t.co/h68quEDX Hunter takes us through mental exercises 2 make us intelligently contrarian. “Invert, Always Invert” May 02, 2012
Hedgers’ net short position vanishes in US oil http://t.co/X0hLOWGB Commercial interests do not fear lower prices, could be bullish 4 crude May 02, 2012
There’s Plenty of Money for Junk http://t.co/vXML0Bao Presently the credit cycle is virtuous; vicious part is coming, but no appt set $$ May 02, 2012
Bad Models Mistook Housing Bust for Dot-Com Bubble http://t.co/IxC8m2mk Busts of assets that are heavily levered harder than unlevered $$ May 02, 2012
Best U.S. Real Estate With Self-Storage http://t.co/mxyHdK2U Self storage a winner in the past, may not do so well in the future; hi vals May 02, 2012
Marginal oil production costs are heading towards $100/barrel http://t.co/G2zNB5JS Same as my reasoning on high crude prices $$ May 02, 2012
Four-percent rule a relic, advisers say http://t.co/PrdHQy48 Better rule: 10y Tsy yield plus 0% if bearish, 1% if neutral, 2% if bullish $$ May 01, 2012
The remarkable resurgence in synthetic credit tranches http://t.co/1iIZ8ous Increases in the notional amounts of several corp bond swaps May 01, 2012
Contra: Black Scholes & the formula of doom http://t.co/flVNsYMx Debt levels & Asset-Liab mismatch largest causes of crisis not BS model Apr 30, 2012
Energy’s Pain is Consumer Discretionary’s Gain http://t.co/lM7UW0T7 I have been on the wrong side of this trade. Sigh. $$ Apr 30, 2012
Notes from the DoubleLine Lunch with Jeffrey Gundlach, Spring 2012 http://t.co/KDiqA5Sp Gives a good overview, w/a large topping of snark $$ Apr 30, 2012

China

China’s Auditing Train Wreck http://t.co/UeIZtw06 Any Chinese firm listed in the US, the auditors should be subject to SEC scrutiny. $$ May 05, 2012
China bear Pettis says world coming around to his view http://t.co/lo1nGc7e Pettis isn’t a bear but a realist; invt-led growth overplayd $$ May 04, 2012
The Family and Corruption http://t.co/R4NwZ6od Family ties & group affiliation dominate economic/political power among Chinese Communists $$ May 04, 2012
Who is Fu? Chinese exile is ‘God’s double agent’ http://t.co/plyQhwtg Story of a Chinese Pastor in US & escape of Chen Guangcheng $$ May 02, 2012
Microblogs Survive Real-Name Rules?So Far http://t.co/5UItJjwj Even the CCP would have a hard time shutting down their Twitter-apps $$ May 02, 2012
Beijing?s secret: It?s not really loosening http://t.co/3RPhAOwH There is not enough demand in China 2 pay all of the high prices. $$ May 02, 2012
China’s Left Behind Children http://t.co/OL0gmSFE Economic growth that separates parents from children imposes significant costs on China $$ May 02, 2012
China Closes Unirule Website http://t.co/ItkW0p0A Founder receives award from Cato Institute; China government shuts down his website $$ May 02, 2012
China?s property boom has peaked, forever http://t.co/aLC2U8F8 Amount of deadweight in China property is so large that prices have peaked $$ Apr 29, 2012

Financial Services

Caution: Contents May Be Hot http://t.co/cp9yjbH3 I worry about ETF slippage from bad creation/redemption unit design & bad trading by users May 04, 2012
Well, That Was Awkward? http://t.co/zS5f6zAI Bank Chiefs’ Regulatory Concerns Met With Official Silence; maybe regulators getting fed up May 04, 2012
A talent shortage looms as the industry booms http://t.co/QGLZzzg7 Financial planners getting old/retiring faster than the Baby Boomers $$ May 04, 2012
2nd attempt2 automate bond trading 1st failed RT @BloombergNews: Goldman preps trading system for corporate bonds | http://t.co/NceasmN7 May 04, 2012
Mortgage Rates in US for 30-Year Loans Fall to Record Low http://t.co/LPolAP5Q Mtge rates b nimble, MR b quick, MR go under limbo stick $$ May 04, 2012
Spending A Year On An M&A Bidding War Is Apparently Overrated http://t.co/tKguPYGy It’s well-known that scale acquirers underperform $$ May 04, 2012
Every liability has an asset, but not every asset has a liability. Some are owned outright. http://t.co/fB3ARju7 May 03, 2012
Canadians Dominate World?s 10 Strongest Banks http://t.co/qj6TOgA3 Ask again after their housing bubble pops, same 4 other fringe nations May 03, 2012
Pimco’s latest ETF shields against price spikes http://t.co/TmOrCIj2 I wonder if active ETFs will have more performance slippage. $$ May 02, 2012
Hedge Funds Hurt by Volatility http://t.co/ogoL62qT Hedge funds r vehicles that do better when credit spreads r tightening $$ May 01, 2012
Bond Market Is Creating A New Galaxy for Trading http://t.co/YgvNwz1j Dealer inventories thin; trading costs rise; electronic mkts start May 01, 2012
US banks still cutting commercial real estate exposure http://t.co/qsqIMRph Banks still rotating out @ an almost constant rate since 2009 $$ Apr 30, 2012
Largest U.S. Banks Resist Federal Reserve?s Credit Limits http://t.co/JndcrvWI Big banks need 2b broken up or shrunk; they don’t accept it Apr 29, 2012

US Fiscal/Regulatory Policy

CEOs rank Texas tops for business, California worst http://t.co/jWEIGP89 8th year in a row for this survey; high taxes/regs annoy CEOs $$ May 04, 2012
Exposing the Medicare Double Count http://t.co/HIVIx3lJ Same $$ being spent twice, must borrow the difference. May 02, 2012
Coburn: `We Ought to Totally Revamp Our Tax Code’ http://t.co/71WquMIf Very similar to my proposals; simplify code eliminate deductions $$ May 02, 2012
U.S. Considers Notes That Float http://t.co/jynXGcYG Intermediate-dated Tsy floaters would trade above par, neg yields like TIPS $$ May 01, 2012
Trying to Shed Student Debt http://t.co/0GmvckOn Lawmakers Rethink Bankruptcy-Law Ban on Walking Away From Education Loans $$ #slavery Apr 30, 2012
Can the US Economy Recover Without a Housing Recovery? http://t.co/Tqy4l8J3 It will probably have to try w/o housing’s assistance $$ Apr 30, 2012
Central Bank paper suggests house prices have ?over-corrected? http://t.co/KDrXCkzy Have Irish housing prices overshot? Tough 2 say. $$ Apr 30, 2012
http://t.co/KbnUO93s Treasury floaters could b issued @ premium 2 par 2 inflation speculators allowing the Tsy 2 finance @ negative rates Apr 30, 2012
U.S. Perfecting Formula for Budget Failure, Says Bowles http://t.co/vlLQzZ8q It’s nice 2b a part of a nation that is a global leader 😉 $$ Apr 30, 2012
Will TARP Make a Profit? That’s the Wrong Question http://t.co/MZBHaO51 Conflicting govt goals make policy hard 2 implement & interpret $$ Apr 30, 2012
You will buy more Govvies, or else http://t.co/DLrnyb9u Financial Repression, Quantitative Easing, Debt Monetization, Hyperinflation $$ Apr 30, 2012
On Student Loans, Accounting Gimmicks, Electric Cars, FX and a note on SS http://t.co/2BCB9nAi Hodgepodge of insight from @brucekrasting $$ Apr 30, 2012
?The Treasury should be issuing 100 year or perpetual bonds until the market can?t stand it anymore to lock in these ? http://t.co/gXMUXW4C Apr 30, 2012
The floating YTMs will probably be negative, as interest rate speculators will pay more than par for the floating rat? http://t.co/OSmE7QuJ Apr 30, 2012

Eurozone

The euro crisis just got a whole lot worse http://t.co/XSqmQnGv Election of Hollande may lead2 Euozone policy paralysis; growth v austerity May 04, 2012
Making eurozonians, or not http://t.co/JmuO5OXC The Eurozone was never a natural place to set up a shared currency. $$ May 04, 2012
Madness in Spain Lingers as Ireland Chases Recovery http://t.co/BXdYSX5e Ireland may b rebounding, as Spain’s slump deepens #austerity $$ May 02, 2012
Why the New York Times?s Paul Krugman is clueless about the European economic crisis http://t.co/xMuzZXC7 Aside frm Ireland no austerity yet May 02, 2012
Core infection and eurozone PMIs http://t.co/xr97yPgD Core of the EZone sluggish @ a time when it can least afford it $$ #depressionary May 02, 2012
ECB Measures Pushing Domestic Bonds Into Domestic Banks, Planting Seeds for Euro Disintegration http://t.co/HAITJJnX Yeh, this da future $$ May 02, 2012
The rise in the Eurozone money supply has not improved credit conditions http://t.co/rYazqcuP Euro M3 diverges from bank loans $$ May 01, 2012
The ECB lending to periphery governments via “backdoor SMP” http://t.co/uQeG2QQK How to stuff the ECB full of Eurofringe debt, c/o LTRO $$ May 01, 2012

Rest of the World

Brazil: cutting at any cost? http://t.co/mh3vN1Te Pushes up asset & price inflation, as currency held down 2aid exporters; unsustainable $$ May 04, 2012
Turkey Credit Rating Outlook Cut by S&P on Worsening Trade http://t.co/pFDzEhZl Wide current account def & hi external financing needs $$ May 02, 2012
Once poster child of crisis, Iceland recovers http://t.co/Sgr2wTGl Letting banks fail & stiffing foreign creditors -> winning solution $$ May 02, 2012
Which emerging economies are at greatest risk of overheating? http://t.co/olHdiYRE A gauge from the Economist on which Em Mkts r2 hot $$ Apr 29, 2012

Company News

Buffett?s CTB Adds Chicken Eviscerators in Dutch Purchase http://t.co/K6Q3NGt2 Buffett’s firm is no chicken; it has a lot of guts! 😉 $$ May 04, 2012
Sorry, really sorry… May 04, 2012
Ackman Rejects Canadian Pacific Deal Ruling Out CEO Pick http://t.co/KYe970NJ Pick is former CEO of $CP rival $CNI – Bad blood; good CEO May 02, 2012
Impressive work Mr. Einhorn. The analyst that wrote up the question deserves praise; if you did that… http://t.co/tSTWxqBa May 01, 2012
Phillips 66 aims to run more shale oil http://t.co/tC7NBfLO LD: + $COP $PSX First day of trading for the new $PSX. Combo up 2%+ so far $$ May 01, 2012
Value investing does not mean cheap. It means margin of safety. Cemex does not have that. Look at the debt. $CX $$ http://t.co/ydklVkth May 01, 2012
Falcone Agrees To Step Aside http://t.co/bYgLxMMV “a final agreement may not be reached, and a bankruptcy filing was still possible” $$ Apr 30, 2012
Delta to buy US refinery for $150 million http://t.co/IsK9xsDu If zero is dumb & 100 is very dumb, this one scores in the 90s. $$ Apr 30, 2012
Discuss “At $1.7 billion, Nook is worth more than Barnes http://t.co/xOz6skwP Spin off Nook 2 create value $$ $BKS $AMZN #interneteatsbooks Apr 30, 2012
@ampressman Would it have been value-enhancing to $BKS 2 sell the whole Nook unit 2 $MSFT, in your opinion? $$ Apr 30, 2012

Statistical Analysis

trading-and-the-null-hypothesis http://t.co/QpYutOTb Problem:No academic journal wants2 publish studies with ‘no result’ as their conclusion May 04, 2012
. @thenumb47 Allows for too much of a specification search; would be good to require disclosure of everything tried but not published $$ May 03, 2012
Have to allow for accidents! RT @incakolanews: just scrub the word “validate” and I think you have a great idea May 03, 2012
Thus my proposal for economists: come up w/research idea: goes 2a database. Randomly assigned economist will analyze & trash/validate it $$ May 03, 2012
Unlike double-blind studies, raw statistical research allows health analysts to inject their own bias into the analysis, as economists do $$ May 03, 2012
Analytical Trend Troubles Scientists http://t.co/bzcAIpHG Health researchers using statistics like economists find ambiguous results $$ May 03, 2012

Miscellaneous

14 Lessons From Benjamin Franklin About Getting What You Want In Life http://t.co/BWAjCz1l Advice from 1 of the wealthiest men of America $$ May 04, 2012
Is Wall Street Meeting God’s Expectations? http://t.co/5H5j2QGG Many Christians misuse the Bible; almost all non-Christians misuse it $$ May 03, 2012
What would Jesus trade? http://t.co/Dkrfwt9k Many Christians misuse the Bible; almost all non-Christians misuse it; another example $$ May 03, 2012
And in a more honest way than Google RT @SconsetCapital: Long good, short evil. May 03, 2012
Apparel-Swapping Millennials Eschew Stores and Malls http://t.co/B7jq2dcY “Is that a new outfit?” “Well, it’s new to me!” An odd trend $$ May 03, 2012
@TheStalwart Kasriel was different enough that he will be missed, kind of like the sound of one hand clapping $$ #littledoghasbuddhanature May 01, 2012
The record 4 tallest bldg s/b based on weighted average height; weighting based on cross-sectional area @ height http://t.co/03HNZ0BB $$ Apr 30, 2012
So if you have something thin at the top, it wouldn’t count 4 much. A rectangular parallpiped would get full credit 4 height $$ #usingmath Apr 30, 2012
That would work, simpler than mine $$ RT @Pollack7: @AlephBlog Meh.Highest continuous occupancy floor. Apr 30, 2012
As the smartest boss I ever had said “Make bets, but never bet the franchise.” http://t.co/qWdHX3BS Apr 30, 2012

Monetary Policy

Bernanke Charts New Mission For Fed: Financial Stability http://t.co/6RrWEQws Fed has a hard enuf time w/a double mandate, triple will b wrs May 02, 2012
Then again, if focusing on financial stability forces the Fed to be more restrained in its monetary policy, that would be good. $$ May 02, 2012
Bernanke: Be Humble! http://t.co/6icSHD1K The picture says it: http://t.co/OqOflqsI Humility in BB’s view: leaving monetary policy loose $$ May 01, 2012
My Speech Delivered at the New York Federal Reserve Bank http://t.co/DbAhOdQR An Austrian let loose amid the marble palace in NYC?! Wow. $$ Apr 29, 2012

US Politics

Renewed Hope that Jon Corzine, President Obama’s Top Tier Campaign Bundler, Will Face Criminal Charges http://t.co/wCLrXFve J. Tavakoli $$ May 01, 2012
Occupy Wall Street Plans Global Protests in Resurgence http://t.co/0FLjKfiJ #OWS won’t b effective until they organize as a 3rd party $$ + May 01, 2012
Or, organize to influence the Democrats the way the t-party does the Republicans. #OWS is irrelevant until then, b/c it doesn’t do anything May 01, 2012
Is that a bailout in your pocket? http://t.co/8xwW4Cbi Boyazny, panel’s populist, replied that the credit markets had become ?undemocratic? May 01, 2012

Weekly Sorted Tweeets

Posted on 28 April 201229 April 2012 by David Merkel

Federal Reserve

Long Term U.S. Credit Boom Chart http://t.co/Ywub8HQH By bailing out short-term credit cycles, the Fed created a big asset bubble $$ Apr 28, 2012
Quantitative Deleting: The Fed’s $400 Billion ‘Gift’ http://t.co/qavtYcQy Fed’s actions lower cost of funding the US Treasury’s deficit 4now Apr 26, 2012
Bernanke Takes On Krugman?s Criticism Ignoring Own Advice http://t.co/AZ37nx1W Blind & Blinder $$ Apr 26, 2012
I think Ben needs one too. Barkeep, make that a double for the the Fed Chairman! $$ RT @soooouuuuurrrrr: @AlephBlog I need a drink. Apr 25, 2012
That’s all folks — the FOMC show is over!! $$ Apr 25, 2012
Stocks loving Bernanke, who says he doesn’t act to please markets, but I think that he does, b/c he aims to reduces rates & spreads $$ Apr 25, 2012
Good Qs on Labor force participation rate and the “bond bubble.” Bernanke obfuscates. Apr 25, 2012
But the real canard here with the enhanced guidance is that the Fed is poor at forecasting & consistently drags toward current conditions $$ Apr 25, 2012
When will Fed “transparency” finally be understood to not mean “increased reliability?” Apr 25, 2012
Interesting that long Treasuries r rallying off of the FOMC second stmt after falling on the first. Not much difference between the 2. $$ Apr 25, 2012
So, short-term inflation up, LT unch. ST Unemp down, LT unch. ST GDP up, 2013-4 down, LT unch. Tightening 6 mos closer than Jan, FF path up Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, PCE average change 2012-14 +0.22%, +.10%, +.09%, longer run 0% (natch) $$ Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, unemployment average change 2012-14 -0.40%, -.21%, -.08%, longer run -.01% $$ Apr 25, 2012
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, GDP average change 2012-14 0.16%, -.08%, -.24%, longer run 0% $$ Apr 25, 2012
The enhanced guidance of the FOMC is causing more confusion than enhancing understanding $$ Apr 25, 2012
Overview of FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy; Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming 6 months sooner than Jan12 Apr 25, 2012
Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End average change 2012-2014, +.015%, +.044%, +.206%, long-run -.015% $$ Apr 25, 2012
PDF isn’t as friendly as HTML… but that’s probably intentional on the part of the Fed. $$ Apr 25, 2012
here they are, Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents http://t.co/OzeYZbRa $$ Apr 25, 2012
Clocks must be slow at the Fed’s website… Apr 25, 2012
Bond/stock trading bots set loose within the next minute! Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop When the FOMC said they would do this, I said “Do they really get what they are setting themselves up for?” Tight coupling. Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop Thanks. I’ve got the ancillary data loaded into a spreadsheet to make a quick comparison Apr 25, 2012
@bondscoop That’s not out yet, right? Apr 25, 2012
Redacted Version of the April 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/wJbPNf5P Shaded up views on housing, inflation & global financial risk. $$ Apr 25, 2012
Of course, that can only last so long as inflation stays low. Brian Wesbury thinks inflation might be rising http://t.co/YfLFURA3 $$ Apr 24, 2012
Gundlach Says Fed Won?t Preemptively Raise Rates http://t.co/YTfjQ6Wj W/debt building up 1 thing saving us: interest rate collapsing $$ Apr 24, 2012
There r historical accidents. The worst that we r dealing w/is Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman with his mistaken views on the Great Depression! Apr 24, 2012
Awash in money and piles of debt http://t.co/C9hbSWmf Up next: More QE, financial repression, inflation, deficit spending -> stagflation $$ Apr 23, 2012
$$ Coming soon +1 RT @ReformedBroker: Hilsenrath: After-Hours Sell-Off in Netflix Pushes Fed Governors Toward to Further Easing… $NFLX Apr 23, 2012

China

Are these companies feeling the Chinese slowdown? http://t.co/bIO0m2vF Machinery companies: Volvo, ABB, $CAT seeing China orders fall $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Internet Crackdown Silences Another http://t.co/ukw0qzWg More closure of accts found 2b spreading ?malicious political rumors.? $$ Apr 26, 2012
Why Wukan Will Remain a One-off http://t.co/LO3tK7kT Optimistic piece shows when there is enough pressure in China, change can happen $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Tire Demand Slows as Economy Decelerates, Bridgestone Says http://t.co/yUK3UEye Q is how much things slow for the Chinese economy $$ Apr 26, 2012
China Escalates Crackdown On Internet Amid Scandal http://t.co/QblN4v3S China wants the internet 4 its economy, but not its politics $$ Apr 26, 2012
China and Social Media Today vs. Japan bubble in 80s http://t.co/0uxQ40xV Vitaliy Katzenelson shares his reasoning on bubbles $$ Apr 26, 2012
Why China’s Economic Policies Are a Failure: Andy Xie http://t.co/WZjILv4J Building redundant capacity, cronyism, recipe for disaster $$ Apr 25, 2012
China Hidden Liabilities for Central Government Seen @ CNY10.94Trl http://t.co/gaqD4suu Opaque governments w/lots of debt can b trouble 2 $$ Apr 25, 2012
Shide Group Mired in Financing Crisis, Massive Debt http://t.co/Iws3h9Ec Beware complex companies w/lots of debt. Default probs higher $$ Apr 25, 2012
The Startling Plight of China’s Leftover Ladies http://t.co/WWK3en7R Leftover Chinese men r not good enuf 4 them, even w/sex ratio tilted $$ Apr 24, 2012
Behind a Chinese City’s Growth, Heavy Debt http://t.co/6eKX3kJp Bo Xilai leaves behind a legacy of debt 4 taxpayers to fund $$ #surprise Apr 23, 2012
Cities get a sinking feeling: report http://t.co/xQE2d46k If China’s cities aren’t careful about their water tables, they’re sunk 😉 $$ Apr 23, 2012
Can China Reflate the Housing Market? http://t.co/rMtYHX0Y Maybe one more time, but eventually you can’t resuscitate a corpse $$ Apr 23, 2012
US barnyards help China super-size food production http://t.co/38GkPJ0T China builds protein industry by purchasing live animals from US $$ Apr 23, 2012
Beijing’s Cracked Consensus http://t.co/1Xep2j6s Don’t assume the fall of Bo Xilai 2b 2big; the CC Party still fights 4 the CC Party $$ Apr 23, 2012
Farmers Retool to Feed China http://t.co/c0loHf82 Dairy processors make longer-lasting milk powder 2sell2 China. They like almonds 2 $$ Apr 23, 2012
China May Finally Let Its People Move More Freely http://t.co/fiTQgY5c Of hukou: how China uses household registration 4 control purposes Apr 23, 2012
The End of China’s One-Child Policy? http://t.co/dK7sUMTq China is getting old before it gets rich. Toxic combo. Watch wages rise. $$ Apr 23, 2012
The China Rising Leaders Project http://t.co/QuKsr7w2 Very long piece giving very detailed info on next generation of China’s leaders $$ Apr 23, 2012
China?s Biggest Banks Are Squeezed for Capital http://t.co/uveB69fJ Too much and overaggressive lending strains their balance sheets $$ Apr 24, 2012

Eurozone

Spain’s current unemployment rate exceeds the US rate during the Great Depression http://t.co/bj86umZp Ugly chart: http://t.co/M6uchbAx $$ Apr 28, 2012
Why Spain Won’t Reform http://t.co/aIuYUctZ Cultural argument that Madrid historically does not act on problems outside of Madrid $$ Apr 28, 2012
Rising Italy-to-Spain Yields Keep Banks on Life Support http://t.co/kSdshke5 Many banks simply cannot refinance their maturing debt $$ Apr 25, 2012
Continuing flow of capital out of Greece http://t.co/psvzWbJk E.g. Greek refineries r unable to obtain credit & rely on Iran for crude $$ Apr 25, 2012
Spanish property crisis will require Ireland-style banking system recapitalization http://t.co/pDLNF2X7 But who has the money 2do it? $$ Apr 23, 2012
Bundesbank?s Weidmann Says What No EU Politician Wants to Hear http://t.co/ecLHlLIJ EZone monetary policy loose; fiscal union negligible Apr 23, 2012
Holland, Not Hollande, Is Europe’s Latest Worry http://t.co/AeQtOIVv If Dutch don’t care 4 austerity, little hope 4 rest of the EZone $$ Apr 23, 2012

Pensions

How Retirement Benefits May Sink the States http://t.co/oIEsAWhh Companies emigrate 2 states where future tax pressures r lower $$ #bye Apr 28, 2012
Point Man on Pensions http://t.co/DaXsdkgx PBGC director has experience in restructuring; serves him well negotiating w/dud companies Apr 23, 2012
Tidbit in last article: FV of DB pension liabs for $SWY > market cap. Actuarial profession goofed on DB plans valuations; ests r liberal $$ Apr 23, 2012
The Multiheaded Pension Monster http://t.co/oBDNBZYN Multiemployer DB plans- not enough coverage: moral hazard, low PBGC guarantees $$ Apr 23, 2012

Energy

Chevron sticks with oil. And it pays off. http://t.co/uUlsjbBK FD: + $CVX | That said, buy & hold conventional NG could b good idea now $$ Apr 28, 2012
Tough Talks Loom at Chesapeake http://t.co/OkMGyu8J Having a CEO who has differing interests from common shareholders is a risk $CHK $$ Apr 28, 2012
Saudi oil puzzle, continued http://t.co/z76fSKTZ Prices r high, but the Saudis keep stockpiling oil. Why? $$ #idunno #gouging #painfreak Apr 25, 2012

Information Issues

Saudi Clerics Out-Tweet Liberals Forcing King to Balance http://t.co/A1TcHeSJ Don’t underestimate the influence of Wahhabi Islam. $$ Apr 26, 2012
Google Stores, Syncs, Edits in the Cloud http://t.co/BrRSauno Walter Mossberg likes $GOOG Drive, thinks $MSFT Skydrive worth a try $$ Apr 25, 2012
PGP Creator Phil Zimmermann Has a New Venture Called Silent Circle http://t.co/KNJQJ4X4 There?s also a promise of no backdoors 4 anyone $$ Apr 24, 2012
A New Email Encryption App Your Network Admin Might Not Like http://t.co/7b967z7e Enlocked can encrypt email w/a click, could go viral $$ Apr 24, 2012
Surveillance State evils http://t.co/BKkmM78J Don’t say anything that you don’t want the government 2 know. Repeal the Patriot Act! $$ Apr 23, 2012
Astounding. Reprogram it $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: This essay awarded a perfect score by a robo-grader is just delightful. http://t.co/Vc1ORC8T Apr 23, 2012

Company Issues

Heat Turned Up on Falcone http://t.co/zaiW1Jzu The deal w/the devil comes due for payment; Falcone faces checkmate or LS bankruptcy $$ Apr 28, 2012
Woes at Law Firm Deepen http://t.co/to4dZbJY Dewey & LeBoeuf’s troubles w/debt & revenue shrinkage. Law does not work well 4 big biz $$ Apr 28, 2012
Health Insurers to Give Back $1.2 Billion, Goldman Says http://t.co/VX0V9sL9 health overhaul limits <20% premium for expenses & profit $$ Apr 26, 2012
US Airways Said to Approach AMR Bondholders on Merger http://t.co/iArkC4nq The unsec bondholders r the economic equity of $AAMRQ now $LCC Apr 25, 2012
Genworth Credibility Eroded as Australia Plan Shelved http://t.co/oyJJ4OCC I’ve almost always ben a sceptic on $GNW. Toxic lines of biz $$ Apr 24, 2012
Google Unveils Drive Storage Service http://t.co/5R1CAkR0 I use Microsoft Skydrive as a real time backup of my files. $$’ Apr 24, 2012
MGIC Posts $19.6 Million Loss as Borrowers Struggle on Loans http://t.co/fvoY6cZN Regulators should halt $MTG’s ability 2 write new biz $$ Apr 23, 2012

Rest of the World

Bubble Down Under? http://t.co/jk4UBFzA ?Name a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market built on a bigger Chinese credit bubble?? Apr 26, 2012
North Korea Poised to Rattle Region With Nuclear Blast http://t.co/MJmALgYi Will believe when it happens; NK always seems 2 get tech wrong Apr 26, 2012
Swiss housing market inching towards bubble http://t.co/KCbYrs6x Makes me wonder when the Swiss Central Bank will break its Euro peg $$ Apr 24, 2012

Financial Markets

Conference Notes http://t.co/VF5FIPOg On 4/13, Chicago Booth held its 7th Annual Distressed Investing & Restructuring Conference. $$ Apr 26, 2012
No surprise when they only put 3.5% down $$ RT @pdacosta: Falling home prices drag new buyers under water http://t.co/bayZVELO Apr 26, 2012
TARP Profit A Myth, Claims TARP Inspector General Christy Romero http://t.co/iv77kkne Q is related to foreclosure prevention aid & GSEs $$ Apr 26, 2012
My Sister?s Pension Assets and Agency Problems by Jeremy Grantham http://t.co/ANDMdZae On the value of a non-constrained mandate $$ Apr 25, 2012
Force Fed by Ben Inker of GMO, last 3 pgs of http://t.co/ANDMdZae Goes through the problems of Asset Allocation with yields so low $$ Apr 25, 2012
Wall Street Promotes Junk Bonds as Europe Erupts http://t.co/5kIRG7Oi grabbing for yield — it’s the national pastime! $$ Apr 25, 2012
US 10 Year Bond Yielding 0.5% http://t.co/Zrnj9zdL Japan scenario for the US? The 10Y at 0.5% seems farfetched, but everyone hates bonds $$ Apr 25, 2012
REITs Spring an Unnerving Surprise http://t.co/qgStDii0 I’ve warned b4 on Private REITs http://t.co/liQr20vq More bad surprises coming $$ Apr 25, 2012
So, if Egan-Jones did do ABS & governments, that would have been news to me. Surprising to see the SEC going after them $$ Apr 25, 2012
Credit Rater Egan-Jones Lied, SEC Charges http://t.co/c1ym3feC Firm was known 4 its corporate bond ratings by a contingent claims model $$ Apr 25, 2012
Misleading ETFs http://t.co/Z8uKHfA7 Buyer beware, read your prospectuses and semi/annual reports; go to the sponsor websites 4 more data $$ Apr 24, 2012
Who Gets the Equity Risk Premium? http://t.co/gqdPYexG LT holders, brokers, taxes, firms that issue & retire shares at inopportune times $$ Apr 24, 2012
Commodities don’t provide “diversification” in a crisis http://t.co/7ue9vvjJ Commodities provided diversification when few did it; no more Apr 23, 2012

Catastrophe Bonds

@merrillmatter If I ran a life insurance portfolio, a closed end fund, an open end HY fund, I would buy cat bonds, u need a balance sheet $$ Apr 24, 2012
@merrillmatter With all the goofy ETFs issued, surely someone could create $CATB, the Cat bond ETF. Would b very tough 2 source bonds 4 $$ Apr 23, 2012
@merrillmatter That’s why many high yield funds buy them w/both hands. Also special hedge funds that tear Cat bonds apart 2 get the best $$ Apr 23, 2012

The Perils of Sitting

On the sitting kills you piece, would like to get a copy. Est’d increase in death rate from 0.76% to 1.06%/yr. Big %, not so big absolute $$ Apr 23, 2012
Confirmed: He Who Sits the Most Dies the Soonest http://t.co/aif1e8xX I found this article worrisome. I sit > half of my waking hours. $$ Apr 23, 2012

US Economy

New Mad-Cow Discovery Stirs Fears http://t.co/DPm6aLzI This story will have legs, 4 2b exact. 😉 Beef will b down until scope clears $$ Apr 25, 2012
On the Social Security 2012 Report to Congress http://t.co/RPG3qz1p Age <53 today can expect to get 75% of the value a baby boomer got $$ Apr 24, 2012
Rosenberg: U.S. Clients View Canada as ?51st State? http://t.co/EqVvLFpX Careful, w/rates so low, housing is looking bubbly & banks?? $$ Apr 24, 2012
Fees and Anger Rise in California Water War http://t.co/9GjE5jwx Bad geography to get water to, unless you want to try desalinization. $$ Apr 24, 2012
@moorehn Heidi, I was 1 of the 8 bloggers @ the 1st blogger summit at the Treasury, & not 1 of the noisier ones. I spoke twice in the 90mins Apr 24, 2012
@moorehn So here is my Q4 Geithner: How do we get out of the entitlements crisis? We have promises equal to 4-5x GDP!? [Amid the deficit] $$ Apr 24, 2012
Housing market no longer yours for a steal http://t.co/xb2E2JIy Low end res RE is not accepting lowball offers to buy as it used to $$ Apr 23, 2012
You Won’t BELIEVE How Bearish Investors Are On Treasuries http://t.co/q9t2sZdE 2% bullish, 81% bearish in Barron’s poll. FD: + $TLT $$ Apr 23, 2012

Miscellaneous

US College Education Bubble, Planning for the Wrong Future http://t.co/BScEbQJI But many smaller job fields req college & pay well. $$ Apr 28, 2012
Hong Kong Glued to ?Bride Wannabes? http://t.co/6p9RCs0X Reality TV aids lovelorn 30-something women, ending w/a mass marriage 4 some $$ Apr 26, 2012
But really, with Agriculture doing so well in the US, isn’t it time to finally cut farm subsidies? And beef up (oops) USDA food safety? $$ Apr 25, 2012
Government Keeps Picking Winners, Losers on the Farm http://t.co/PKiJBHIp Farmer complains healthy food gets less subsidy than unhealthy Apr 25, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 23 April 2012 by David Merkel

Busy week last week.? Here’s the economic and other news:

=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-==-=-=-==-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

China

Bloomberg: Inflated Notions http://t.co/hvMoIFH6 Patrick Chovanec questions whether Chinese economic statistics are correct. $$ Apr 22, 2012
China?s Political Stability Questioned, while Deposit Withdrawals Accelerate http://t.co/X9kJ9oZb Deposits exit China’s banks; many worry $$ Apr 22, 2012
Asia dominates new treasury purchases http://t.co/BXvgGQRi If you want to favor your exporters, you have to suck in the debts of the buyers Apr 22, 2012
China?s Achilles heel http://t.co/3TPxHEvL Very difficult to change the practice of having fewer children once it is entrenched $$ Apr 22, 2012
Son is a good man, more worthy than Dad $$ RT @mprobertson: & the first wife had a son. http://t.co/dFzgm1kp extra extra, read all about it Apr 19, 2012
Chinese Move to Wealth Products May Undermine Bank Stability http://t.co/bYK4qImP Disintermediation happening increasing shadow bank risk $$ Apr 18, 2012
Chinese Officialdom Indulges in the Almost-Free Lunch http://t.co/tTMkP8JK A modest subsidy/perk looks big if the 1 looking in is poor $$ Apr 18, 2012
The Power Shift in China http://t.co/bgxN7t8h Shifts: 1.weak leaders < strong factions 2. government < interest groups 3. party < country $$ Apr 18, 2012
More Chinese get US green card http://t.co/ZU30ahwF They know where they’ve got it good, not in the Socialist worker’s paradise! $$ Apr 18, 2012
So many Chinese officials r arrested 4 embezzling funds through Macau that 2 scholars devoted a study to the subject http://t.co/YZbDqX57 $$ Apr 18, 2012
That?s Governor Zhou to you http://t.co/AkXcHbPZ Check out chart of central bank balance sheet growth http://t.co/VG0bySGA China leads $$ Apr 18, 2012
China widens the range 4 currency fluctuations. Is it really making x-rate more flexible? http://t.co/Rv79vI0q PBOC still targets x-rate $$ Apr 18, 2012
Rotting From Within http://t.co/vAwKBTzb Investigates the massive corruption of the Chinese military; makes corruption in the US look small Apr 18, 2012
Bo Xilai’s first wife gets her revenge at last http://t.co/UsrGejSF Some Chinese r very good @ maintaining a grudge 4a long time $$ Apr 18, 2012
China Doubling Yuan Band Signals Drive for Convertibility http://t.co/FK9OohMh Importance overstated; will not have a big effect on x-rate Apr 18, 2012
China Adds Treasuries for Second Month on Reserve Growth http://t.co/Ev9Fqi8s Export earnings have 2b invested somewhere $$ is best of bad Apr 18, 2012
China New Yuan Loans Surge in March as Money Supply Quickens http://t.co/DmXg6QB5 Sounds inflationary, if not 4 goods, then 4 assets $$ Apr 18, 2012

Energy

Peak oil goes mainstream (again) http://t.co/BijPuVFG Oil & Gas will never run out, but the price to get them could get high $$ Apr 22, 2012
Feeling peaky http://t.co/4mefPCBR “But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.” $$ Apr 22, 2012
Could US natural gas run out of storage capacity? http://t.co/8R1aYxjM Yes, it could, and we could see the price of spot gas go 2 zero $$ Apr 22, 2012
Delta?s Oil Refinery Plan Flies Against Economic Sense http://t.co/0xAnIV2z It rarely makes sense to be vertically integrated. $$ Apr 22, 2012
Obama’s oil market plan more politics than substance http://t.co/w2vwKhNx Crude oil market is so big; would be difficult 2 game secretly Apr 18, 2012

Eurozone

Odds of bankruptcy http://t.co/v0xBexrW Short table of bankruptcy odds: European banks = E-Zone Fringe > US Banks > Other nations $$ Apr 22, 2012
The bank-sovereign linkage in the Eurozone http://t.co/9q7Sx9cn Not 2 surprising; governments & banks comprise most systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
Spain’s loan delinquencies accelerate http://t.co/3Nlf2QDu Really ugly graph: http://t.co/iJVux7fj The Spain issue is not dead $$ #ezonedead Apr 22, 2012
Paulson Said to Short Europe Bonds Amid Spain Concern http://t.co/hJQwSc9n This one isn’t as easy as shorting subprime. Be careful $$ Apr 18, 2012
Modell Deutschland ?ber alles http://t.co/DtrBNHDL Suggests EZone imitate German labor rules, but not austerity $$ Apr 18, 2012
French Campaign Enters Final Week With Hollande Extending Lead http://t.co/whQhmUb1 & widening recently; could make Ezone matters messy $$ Apr 18, 2012
Downgrades Loom 4 Banks http://t.co/EdDRDGQa Moody’s Weighing Ratings Cuts to 114 Institutions in 16 European Countries $$ #lookoutbelow Apr 18, 2012
Spanish Minister Asks ECB to Buy Bonds as Crisis Deepens http://t.co/cUcLRHLW Things r calmer now but this is the path of least resistance Apr 18, 2012
Spain?s Surging Bad Loans Cast New Doubts on Bank Cleanup http://t.co/QQT2BSsB NPLs /totallending jumped to 8.16% in February, <1% in 2007 Apr 18, 2012
Weidmann says not ECB job to tackle Spain’s problems http://t.co/kRUWSfyQ Famous last words $$ ECB only entity w/flexbility 2act fast Apr 18, 2012
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Says Spain Is Worse Off Than It Was Before The LTRO http://t.co/nVMDpG5c It’s a solvency, not a liquidity problem Apr 18, 2012
GEORGE SOROS: The Euro Crisis Just Entered A ‘Less Volatile But More Lethal Phase’ http://t.co/uzIev7nm LTRO papers overinsolvency probs Apr 18, 2012

Rest of the World

Argentina’s shadow FX rate shows total loss of confidence http://t.co/RVRicp1p Dishonesty in one area makes others distrust u elsewhere $$ Apr 22, 2012
Cristina: she is not alone http://t.co/gBWcllwU Many nations engage in expropriation from foreigners. $$ Apr 22, 2012
Pakistan And India To Go To War Over Water? http://t.co/2mx9a7u9 Whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting over — Mark Twain $$ Apr 18, 2012
Unlikely but never say never RT @SCMITHA: @AlephBlog Sir No chance of war bet India & Pakistan both Nuclear Army Chief Kayani wants peace Apr 18, 2012
Mexico Manifesting its Own Destiny http://t.co/kLwx5A6l “Mexico has clearly stood out to me for its relative and absolute strength.” $$ Apr 18, 2012
Japan?s Teachers Fund to Start Investing in REITs, Hedge Funds http://t.co/9nKnY0zM Trend following; late to the alternative assets party Apr 18, 2012

US Tax Policy & Pensions

Congress Eyes 401(k)s Again http://t.co/nRL9IkeO Interesting article on some possible/unlikely proposals to change 401(k)s $$ Apr 22, 2012
How to Pay No Taxes: 10 Strategies Used by the Rich http://t.co/ljjgefpc The main problem is defining income, not tax rates on the rich $$ Apr 22, 2012
Occupy defined-benefit pension funds! http://t.co/eQooNetC Employees would be better off with DB plans, even if had to fund them themselves Apr 22, 2012
New Suits Over Do-It-Yourself IRAs http://t.co/B6UYpG5m They aim for the wrong target; the custodian is only a conduit, not a referee $$ Apr 22, 2012
As population ages, institutions reduce equity holdings http://t.co/rPfescwH A first: US pensions have allocated more to bonds than equities Apr 18, 2012

Miscellaneous

The New York Times Company in 2015 http://t.co/qp451VDA An optimistic view of $NYT three years from now. I will not buy it. $$ Apr 22, 2012
Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus http://t.co/WOvr2BFE Y California is in deep trouble & will shrink as better places r found $$ Apr 22, 2012
Contra: Climate Change Has Nothing to Do With Al Gore http://t.co/GO0S60J3 Misinterprets Lk 16:2, & I am to believe he is a Christian? $$ Apr 22, 2012
The Celestial Event That Sparked a Revolution http://t.co/Kn3E9XJb Fascinating tale on the transit of Venus across the Sun $$ #June6th Apr 22, 2012
The Downside of Cohabiting Before Marriage http://t.co/a1fFySzW For a man & woman 2 live together long run requires decisive commitment $$ Apr 18, 2012
Amazon’s knock-off problem (35 Shades of Grey, anyone?) http://t.co/oRJNKhVB Fascinating that some r knocking off books & selling on $AMZN Apr 18, 2012
Median age for first marriage spikes to record, holding back family formation http://t.co/Uf2SbCTI Long-run effect on society won’t b good Apr 18, 2012
To Pay Off Loans, Grads Put Off Marriage, Children http://t.co/G72NieZI Far better to skip college than put off marrying & children $$ Apr 18, 2012
The 101 Finance People You Have To Follow On Twitter: http://t.co/pIaCWK1n A good list, but where’s @moorehn, @interfluidity, @edwardnh $$ Apr 18, 2012
Dark Meat Getting a Leg Up on Boring Boneless Breast http://t.co/7BDSaTru “Every single day we have shortage of dark meat.” Who knew? $$ Apr 18, 2012
?Pink Slime? Furor Means Disaster for U.S. Meat Innovator http://t.co/uGwKSIhw The other side of the story; fighting bacteria in beef $$ Apr 18, 2012
RAIL TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO SOFTEN http://t.co/EnhWT7Ay Economy slowing; just another straw blowing in the wind. $$ Apr 18, 2012
Freeport Deal Talk Intensifies on Cheap Copper http://t.co/DH26Nf1s Would be a big deal & difficult to pull off; Interesting idea tho $$ Apr 18, 2012
Taxes are filed and now I have some time to tweet, making up for lost time… Apr 18, 2012
@danprimack Private Investment Limited Partnership. Features: asset & profit-based fees. Limited liquidity & information. Aims high gets low Apr 17, 2012?(DM: defining ?hedge fund? in 140 chars)

Economics & Finance Theory

Is modern portfolio theory bunk? http://t.co/NrplQvbp Low volatility anomaly says bunk; if you didn’t know MPT was bogus alre ady-> #hopeless Apr 22, 2012
U.S. money supply growth offers bullish signal http://t.co/aqV6oP0c It is bullish in nominal terms for risk assets; not bullish for the rest Apr 22, 2012
Slump Taught Profligate Americans Value of Saving http://t.co/22jWf3OL Having slack assets & not being in debt is a virtue not a vice $$ Apr 22, 2012
The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong http://t.co/OBXRGeY2 Until the great depression is viewed as the bust after a credit boom + Apr 22, 2012
…we won’t get policy right. The credit cycle is real, & the Fed ignores it, providing liquidity as if it were not a structural problem. $$ Apr 22, 2012
El-Erian Breaches The Final Frontier: What Happens If Central Banks Fail? http://t.co/pRcdN42N Goal: print enough credit until promises -> 0 Apr 18, 2012
Deflation Does Not Lead to a Depression, suggests Research http://t.co/2VTu2bAd Separate probs; falling inflation vs systemic impaired debts Apr 18, 2012
Depression is a choice http://t.co/F4YdBn8x Every creditor wants 2b paid off @ par; many debtors would like compromise, enabling econ growth Apr 18, 2012
Difficulties in forecasting the impact of shadow inventory on the housing market http://t.co/xcALioOb Mtge > value makes sales slow, $$ low Apr 18, 2012

Financial Markets

Are fixed income ETFs the new “securitization” product? http://t.co/6qo2U7Zg Shows the many ways that sponsors make $$ off of ETFs Apr 22, 2012
Time for the SEC to institute new disclosure rules on CEO leverage http://t.co/nMJZslXg Insider CEO deals r material & should be revealed $$ Apr 22, 2012
Fear Barometer Bubbling http://t.co/HjXre23p Puts getting more expensive relative to calls on the S&P Apr 22, 2012
Is This the Book that Inspired Jamie Dimon’s Warnings About Regulation? http://t.co/ikzuXwlD Regs make banks behave alike ->systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
@historysquared One question I always ask is how mgmt/directors treat outside passive minority shareholders. Do we ride the back of bus? $$ Apr 18, 2012
@historysquared Yeh, don’t let management control audit, nominating, or compensation committees. Split Chairman & CEO, etc., etc., etc… $$ Apr 18, 2012
Regulators should encourage more diversity in the financial system http://t.co/xhfvsTlS Consistent regs create less diversity forces conform Apr 18, 2012
In New Funds, Old Flaws http://t.co/h931mglc Some have high fees, longer-term tracking error, hidden counterparty risk, enable stupidity Apr 18, 2012
Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the JOBS Act of 2012 http://t.co/kk9seYVH Here’s what Hunter thinks are the positives of the JOBS Act Apr 18, 2012
Fannie Mae Fix Said to Retain Some US Mortgage Role http://t.co/YPAFyygs Crazy people @ UST. 2much debt on housing in general->instability Apr 18, 2012
Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Label More Junior Liens as Bad Assets http://t.co/QpwE2S43 Wow, this took a long time to finally happen $$ #reality Apr 18, 2012
Structured-Note Fees (etc) http://t.co/rYf5WXBS IBs must disclose likely value of securities, fees incurred in creation of the notes $$ Apr 18, 2012
Citadel, Millennium Above $115 Billion With Rule Change http://t.co/j53AMUGG Many hedge funds have borrowed lots; now we know how much $$ Apr 18, 2012
Year’s first outflows from HY bond funds http://t.co/mUmIq0Yw May eventually lead to $$ weakness Apr 18, 2012
Green Light for Hedge-Fund Ads Means Caution on Main Street http://t.co/4mh9LNgW Most people will not fare well w/complex investments $$ Apr 18, 2012
Doing the Right Thing: Upside? Zero. Downside? Financial Ruin? http://t.co/eZlNDJJA We aren’t paid 2b sheriffs a la: http://t.co/egqIsb9V $$ Apr 18, 2012
Do Jubilee shares make any sense? http://t.co/2LxtggJ1 I don’t think so. Unnecessary complexity; increased illiquidity; would not work $$ Apr 18, 2012
12 Intriguing Insights on Mutual Funds http://t.co/6U3JZegh Interesting mutual fund trivia from Morningstar $$ Apr 18, 2012
Interesting post. But a successful spec on 1 risk can morph into credit risk post-crisis. … http://t.co/Vzlb5xdT Apr 17, 2012
Falcone looks like a one-trick pony who made one lucky bet and won. Now he loses regularly. http://t.co/dsivgMCs Apr 16, 2012