Tweets – Page 8 – The Aleph Blog

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 24 November 2012 by David Merkel

Politics & Policy

Was the Budget Deficit Worth the Fight? http://t.co/jDn9r7DC Budget deficits are an assault on the quality of our money & savings $$ @carney Nov 24, 2012
None Dare Call It Default http://t.co/4o0lnQoe A nicer term for what’s about to sock the middle class is ‘entitlement reform.’ $$ Nov 24, 2012
Judge Pens New Bankruptcy Chapter http://t.co/6V5cUQjS US BK Court Judge Thomas Bennett takes on the Jefferson County, AL Ch 9 filing $$ Nov 24, 2012
Banks reportedly lining up against Elizabeth Warren committee spot http://t.co/YRAId5TQ & http://t.co/LFXTCZEb I say give her a chance $$ Nov 21, 2012
Globalism goes backward http://t.co/h6kt67Lz As global growth slows, so does its handmaiden, globalization. $$ Nov 21, 2012
2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in 4 Fearsome Ways http://t.co/iZjmM1ZA Pre-election spree, post-reduce deficit, class war, prior laws bite $$ Nov 20, 2012
FHA running out of money http://t.co/L1M7lRIK ?We take the findings of the independent actuary very seriously…? loss reserves too low $$ Nov 20, 2012
Pension cuts could boost state?s Social Security costs http://t.co/61jicHRM If benefits drop below certain level, have 2 pay SS/Med taxes $$ Nov 19, 2012
Special Dividends Surge Fourfold as US Tax Increase Looms http://t.co/vPVaLNFU Last chance 2 reward shareholders w/low div tax rates $$ Nov 19, 2012
http://t.co/LJnienxh San Bernardino: How California law, police/firemen, CALPERS, dysfunctional politics, & bad pension acctg rules killed Nov 19, 2012

Monetary Policy

Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus http://t.co/pJ5FTplo Gold prices react2cost of carry; neg in real terms now $$ #zoom Nov 24, 2012
Paula Broadwell?s Radar Tracks Generals, Not Fed http://t.co/WglEhJFo Bernanke’s/Yellen’s ideas will crumble from stagflation $$ @cabaum Nov 24, 2012
Abe threatens to turn BOJ into an unlimited piggy bank for the government http://t.co/LxWwmlyP Eventually the real economy will rebel $$ Nov 21, 2012
It’s a Good Bet the Fed Doesn’t Know What It’s Doing http://t.co/zG6mepy0 Couldn’t pick a worse Fed 4 crisis: imagines it knows what 2 do $$ Nov 19, 2012

Hewlett-Packard

Hurdling H-P: Oracle Shows Way in M&A http://t.co/fiJvmT2N Point is $ORCL ‘s older deals have been productive, $HPQ ‘s not. $$ FD:+$ORCL Nov 23, 2012
H-P?s Deal Process Bypassed CFO Pre-Whitman http://t.co/WfawtYfh Note that Cathie Lesjak opposed the Autonomy purchase. Smart lady $$ Nov 21, 2012
Goodwill Hunting http://t.co/ghFrEDlY @epicureandealmaker takes down a generally cruddy Bloomberg article on $HPQ & Goodwill accounting $$ Nov 21, 2012
Note to all writing about Hewlett Packard: the ticker is $HPQ, not $HP, which is Helmerich & Payne, which drills oil and gas wells $$ Nov 20, 2012
Ironic in many ways. HP should have been happy with their engineer-driven pre-Fiorina culture. It did a lot… http://t.co/rqXEW5Bi Nov 20, 2012

Loose Monetary Policy Harms Fringe Nations

Debt Burden Adds to Won Gains in Crimping Korea Rebound http://t.co/y6uHfFEw Loose monetary policy creates debt bubble in S. Korea $$ Nov 24, 2012
S&P: Australia is Spain in waiting http://t.co/usllSlBt Heavily indebted financial systems can be like the snowpack prior 2 an avalanche $$ Nov 21, 2012
Prison of Debt Paralyzes West http://t.co/ofJXWyLu Government debt after a point does not stimulate, but perpetuates unproductive policy $$ Nov 20, 2012
Purple Palace Abandoned Shows China Shadow-Banking Risk http://t.co/tmg6jPhy China is like Japan 23 years ago: fearsome & malinvested $$ Nov 20, 2012

Rest of the World

Egypt Presidential Decree Sparks Protests http://t.co/a5YUcvtN Anyone surprised that the Muslim Brotherhood came out on top? State Dept Nov 23, 2012
Can Xi Jinping bring about the change China needs? http://t.co/i3XGKZBJ Long article on the new Chinese leader; very tough road to travel $$ Nov 21, 2012
Pipeline Would Loosen Russian Stranglehold On European Natural Gas Supply http://t.co/3zPUInTZ Where there is a will there is a way $$ Nov 20, 2012
Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro http://t.co/nCJ7rLiZ Germany won’t want a banking union; their banks have issues Nov 20, 2012
http://t.co/MSqwtq4u China unlikely to make shift to consumption, b/c it means granting freedom to the people & reducing party cronyism $$ Nov 20, 2012

Personal Finance

After Sandy damage, insurance adjusters may bring more bad news http://t.co/GTAhE9x3 If odds of getting flooded > 1% get flood insurance $$ Nov 24, 2012
Tax Moves to Make Now http://t.co/TmoaGOCC Balanced piece; worth a read. Assumes we don’t go over the fiscal cliff: a deal is struck $$ Nov 24, 2012
Lenders Rev Their Engines http://t.co/5jz3pt3l Surge in Demand for Auto Loans Spurs Push Into Sector; Subprime Is a Big Draw $$ Nov 23, 2012
For ‘Credit Invisibles,’ A Market Takes Shape http://t.co/4l849dmK A blast from the past; using payment histories 2 establish credit $$ Nov 20, 2012
apparent mojo http://t.co/lDNmxD1s @researchpuzzler does homework, comes to correct conclusion on a tiny junk fund featured in the WSJ $$ Nov 20, 2012
Draining Away! http://t.co/hQAqzE9M Universal life policies suffer from low interest rates. B sure 2 check the gteed minimum rate $$ Nov 19, 2012

Miscellaneous

The Great Thanksgiving Hoax http://t.co/kwbE39ee Strangers were the lazy ones; like the Hutterites the Saints could have made socialism work Nov 21, 2012
Archbishop Says Church Lost Credibility on Women Bishops http://t.co/n7XkjfDM The “laity” understands the Bible better than the priests $$ Nov 21, 2012
Why One Poll Says 45% Would Rather Skip Christmas http://t.co/zwwqY00R Costs a lot; nativity means much to Christians, Christmas is made-up Nov 20, 2012
Windows 8 killed my PC http://t.co/slcTSRVA No operating system should expect 2b equally good touch vs keyboard, tablet vs laptop, etc $$ Nov 20, 2012
Kill the Password: Y a String of Characters Can?t Protect Us Anymore http://t.co/jPoLzKpK Long but worth it; multifactor ID is the future $$ Nov 20, 2012

Market Dynamics

Kyle Bass gives it to us with both barrels http://t.co/yZLt36kW Very long. Worth it if you want to see what he is up to in investing. $$ Nov 21, 2012
Mismeasurement of Pensions Before and After Retirement http://t.co/DwE869Js The full paper, & you don’t have to pay NBER a cent $$ Nov 19, 2012
In a Slow Market, Wait for Compelling Values Says Johnson http://t.co/lf891lb5 Expects 5%-ish returns 2013; unusual 2 get small returns $$ Nov 19, 2012
Tech Sets Correction Course http://t.co/ct7yaWcb Largest sector of the market is feeling soggy, which does not bode well 4 the rest $$ Nov 19, 2012
Why Mutual Fund Guardians Are Failing http://t.co/UMvk4AAB Old/good article on the flaws of mutual fund governance; skewed incentives $$ Nov 19, 2012
Investment Falls Off a Cliff http://t.co/GVqnEdLH US Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty; unstable policy Nov 19, 2012
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

Other Companies

I know the basics on a lot of companies but is the first time I have heard of Schiff Nutrition International $SHF http://t.co/jxHIdf1v $$ Nov 21, 2012
Hostess Judge Sees Return to ?Liquidation Scenario? http://t.co/OeDI3sTX Twinkies will survive, but many who produce them will not $$ Nov 21, 2012
Hostess Seen Attracting Bids for Assets From Flowers http://t.co/vAu1o7Wv The brands will get bought; the value is there, not in plants $$ Nov 19, 2012
Drillers Begin Reusing ‘Frack Water’ http://t.co/nOiR3sy5 Energy Firms Explore Recycling Options 4 Industry That Uses Water Like Chicago Nov 19, 2012

Wrong

Bad Headline: Wall St Kept Winning on Mortgages Upending Homeowners http://t.co/fuKDx4ss Most tricky mtges not originated by Wall St $$ Nov 19, 2012
Wrong: S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan http://t.co/jNJ1x0SU When will they learn *not* 2 use P/E 4 mkt valiuation? $$ Nov 19, 2012

Replies

@PlanMaestro Thanks — missed that. Nov 23, 2012
@PlanMaestro I just can’t believe the 1.5 Billion figure for the Earth’s carrying capacity; even the Club of Rome is more optimistic, no? Nov 23, 2012
“How many lines can be drawn in a 2D plane such that they are equidistant from 3 non-collinear points?” 3… http://t.co/QQkn7IcR Nov 23, 2012
Grantham is outside of his skill set here, and should be ignored. Also, global population will top out at… http://t.co/ZACbqPQO Nov 23, 2012
Nothing against Bill McBride. He deserves praise from all of us. There are three missing pieces though, and… http://t.co/Dfs50uGQ Nov 21, 2012
. @Dvolatility H-P CDS Curve Flattens on Write-Down http://t.co/9vWEDzcZ Early buyers of $HPQ protection made decent money, late less $$ Nov 21, 2012
@Dvolatility $HPQ CDS spreads did forecast the spread widening, but not the magnitude. It also forecast the stock price move also $$ Nov 21, 2012
@japhychron @TFMkts @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Or, does the negative tangible book have an impact on modeling? $HPQ $$ Nov 21, 2012
“You can count beans and trace them back to their sources, good. But can you adequately question the?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/JS3Jbtnb Nov 21, 2012
@dvandeventer @Dvolatility Any read on the level 5Y CDS is trading at? Used to have a BBG terminal, but don’t now… Nov 21, 2012
@Dvolatility Where does the $HPQ CDS trade now? Nov 21, 2012
@qusmablog Much of the world has to go through a “failure cycle” before “normal growth” can reboot. Many entrenched interests don’t want it. Nov 21, 2012
@Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Also not good for the WSJ 2 write about a small fund w/short track record… bigger problem $$ Nov 20, 2012
@Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Apologies, Chou Income did beat the Barclays Agg since inception http://t.co/VwYvIVYj Carry does it $$ Nov 20, 2012
@CEOofmyFUTURE longer term measures like the Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price to resources, & Hussman has a measure also Nov 19, 2012
@BloombergNews Who’s in charge of this page: http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK They changed it last week and made it less useful $$ Nov 19, 2012

Retweets

Notable & Honorable $$ RT @Nati2de: Larry Hagman was married to the same woman since 1954. Impressive, especially for a Hollywood actor. Nov 24, 2012
Growth comes when capital, labor & resources have fair prices RT @BloombergView: Greece needs growth, not austerity | http://t.co/f620QBRU Nov 21, 2012
RT @retheauditors: #1 cause of accounting fraud is revenue recognition issues and #1 industry for accounting fraud is technology/softwar … Nov 20, 2012
Gracias, no se habla $$ RT @besanson: #FunAndFinance Interest Rate Swaps and LIBOR in 5 minutes // Thanks or RT http://t.co/zu2LP7Nx Nov 20, 2012
Torture data until it confesses something $$ RT @Alea_: Does ?Statistical Significance? Imply ?Actually Significant?? http://t.co/BBTfUThF Nov 20, 2012
RT @finemrespice: The Federal Housing Administration stands against all prior biological evidence that primates are capable of forming m … Nov 19, 2012
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

Blog News

My week on twitter: 75 retweets received, 4 new listings, 50 new followers, 92 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 22, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 17 November 2012 by David Merkel

Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference

@ToddSullivan Good conference, videos will b posted here: http://t.co/wu2DCMY2 & Plosser’s talk will b here: http://t.co/VH1zLn30 #CMC30 $$ Nov 16, 2012
Plosser: “Such an exit depends on the Fed?s ability to be systematic and transparent about its policy decisions.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: ” Avoiding these risks is dependent on the Fed executing a graceful exit from this period of extraordinary accommodation” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “The fourth principle is to strive to ensure central bank independence.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “The third principle is to be clear and transparent in communicating to the public the policy actions that are taken.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: ” One way to do this is for the central bank to articulate a reaction function or rule that will guide policy decisions.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “…by describing how they will conduct policy in a way that is consistent with those goals. ” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “The second principle is for policymakers to make a credible commitment to their goals…” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “And in so doing, policymakers must acknowledge what policy can and cannot achieve.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “The first principle is to be clear and explicit about the goals and objectives of policy.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “I believe sound and effective central banking should focus on 4 guiding principles.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “Moreover, it is unlikely that regulatory reform as embodied in Dodd-Frank has substantially addressed the TBTF problem.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “The ability of monetary policy to influence employment has long been recognized as tenuous at best.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “It is very hard to quantify the risks associated with our unconventional policies. But they are real.” $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: Blurring the boundaries between monetary & fiscal policies can pose institutional risks 4the central bank & its independence #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “Moreover, it is difficult to identify the appropriate moment to begin tightening policy, even in the best of times.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Plosser: “Yet, history tells us that central banks tend to find it easier to lower interest rates than to raise them.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
RT @PhilFedComDev: Read Plosser?s speech: ?Good Intentions in the Short Term with Risky Consequences for the Long Term.? #CMC30 http://t … Nov 15, 2012
Chen: “Rise of the individual in China.” McDonald’s in China originated “I’m loving it.” #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Huang: Being a reserve currency lowers trading costs, lends prestige. Serves as a “Trojan Horse” for reform in China. Seiniorage. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Huang: 400 years ago, China was a reserve currency with 30% share of Gross World Product. $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Schwartz: Monetary must be rules-based because we don’t really understand what monetary policy does in the intermediate-term #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Schwartz: Debt Intolerance: Debt> 90% GDP in developed countries. 60% in emerging markets. Spain at 90%+ in 2013. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Schwartz: Quasi-gold standard — ECB was supposed to be independent. No exploiting money illusion. No devaluation. No excessive debt. #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Wolfgang M?nchau: Fundamental problem of Eurozone: No bailout, no default, no exit (inconsistent). #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Stark: Crisis policies not well thought out, ad hoc, reactive, leaves too much to the ECB to do, too little done by govts #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Stark: Countries did not get the practical impacts of sharing a currency. $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Stark: Some countries were allowed to join the Euro who really were not qualified. Rules were not upheld. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Stark: ECB will ride to the rescue of European Governments. This is not a sustainable policy. Adjustments need to take place. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
O’Grady: Opens by saying that the Euro was started with good intentions. (DM: low praise that it was not designed to fail.) #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Taylor: Dual mandate came in when monetary policy was way too loose, and inflation high. Leads 2 2 much discretion in monetary policy #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Taylor: Argues that the policy of promising to hold Fed funds low to 2015 inconsistent with where the Taylor rule would indicate #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Taylor: Argues that Fed funds were too low for too long 2003-2004, and that regulatory rules were not enforced. Partially blames GSEs #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Taylor: Last 30 years — 1982-2002 good monetary policy, in his opinion. 2002-2012 bad monetary policy. $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Warsh: Fed is a price-maker, not a price-taker, affects risk-free rate, & it affects the pricing of all assets, distorting investment #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Malpass: Capital allocation is getting warped by the Fed, leading to higher prices for gold and corporate bonds, mortgage bonds, etc. #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Malpass: Fed is sucking duration out of the fixed income markets more rapidly than the Treasury is issuing. $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
Malpass: The Fed is a giant, heavily leveraged SIV, borrowing short and lending long, w/only $55B of equity capital. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
O’Driscoll: Failure to forecast the Great Recession lessens the legitimacy of the Fed to engage in discretionary policy. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Warsh: Price stability should b the main mandate. Maximizing sustainable employment is important, but outside the remit of the Fed #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Warsh: Communications matter, but they are not everything. What the Fed does is more important than what the Fed says. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Warsh: Argues that 2008 was a panic and Fed actions were justified. Today, that’s not so, where monetary policy is weak. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Warsh: Diminishing returns to monetary policy. Monetary policy can be really strong at some moments, and very weak in others. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Poole: Current economic problems are not monetary in nature. ECB has violated or circumvented many strictures in its charter. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Poole: QE2 was a mistake — there were already excess reserves at the banks. $$ #CMC30 Additional reserves will not solve the problem Nov 15, 2012
I asked my question on asset-liability mismatch — Hoenig: the answer was the usual that you can’t end maturity transformation #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
@ToddSullivan Hoenig: Misguided, too complex, need simpler regs and more discretion for regulators #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Hoenig: Unlimited liability would be good, but you will politically never get there. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Hoenig: Need to rethink the capital approach. Dump Basel. Simplify, it is too easy to game. Need a simple tangible capital ratio #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Thomas Hoenig suggests that we are sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis #CMC30 $$ Says we should be skeptical of new regulations Nov 15, 2012
Bernanke cut rates 8/2007-9/08 in the midst of a solvency problem as opposed 2a liquidity problem. Cutting rates wld/did not work $$ #CMC30 Nov 15, 2012
If incomes do not grow to meet the need to finance incremental debts incurred, you set up a debt financing crisis. #CMC30 $$ Nov 15, 2012
Vernon L. Smith, “Leverage cuts far deeper on the downside than on the upside.” #CMC30 $$ At the Cato Institute’s 30th Monetary Policy Conf Nov 15, 2012

US Politics

Changing the Conventional Wisdom on Wall Street http://t.co/HzU13GRB Ideas 4 tough leaders 4the SEC. 2 more: @ritholtz & @reformedbroker $$ Nov 17, 2012
Obama Said to Reject Request to Ease Corn-Based Ethanol Law http://t.co/9LWxZi2h Increases pollution too. Ag states win again $$ Nov 16, 2012
What the New President Should Consider http://t.co/Ah99K6tx Paul Volcker tells us that we need to balance the budget & grow the economy $$ Nov 16, 2012
Why Hispanics are Natural Democrats and what the GOP can do about it http://t.co/XKLbPPcq IMO the GOP can’t do much about it at all $$ Nov 14, 2012
Receivership Does NOT End GSEs http://t.co/qrEbx3Di The current law forbids the receiver 2 “revoke, annul, or terminate the charter” $$ Nov 14, 2012
10 Leadership Lessons from Simpson Bowles http://t.co/6JC5CLzc 11. Everything must be on the table. Everything. Including Medicare & SS $$ Nov 14, 2012
http://t.co/hxqRMzaG Series on economic “cliffs” in the world today. If US cliff only costs 1% of GDP, might b worth doing 2 balance bdgt $$ Nov 14, 2012

Credit Markets

Do Junk-Bond Investors Have Garbage for Brains? http://t.co/ZYYvK1db Financial repression tempts investors 2 take underpriced risks $$ Nov 16, 2012
‘Junk’ Bonds Sing Postelection Blues http://t.co/Rf4isEqO Room 2b constructive here, cash flow is adequate 2 service most HY now $$ Nov 16, 2012
BlackRock?s Junk-Bond ETF Has Record Withdrawals as Rally Fades http://t.co/C79GC6Gl Poster child 4 the current risky debt panic $$ Nov 14, 2012
Credit-Fueled U.S. Car Sales May Need Help From Incomes http://t.co/0iRq46j1 Been here b4; can incomes cover debt pmts w/room 4 error? $$ Nov 14, 2012

China

Pettis’ articles at the WSJ http://t.co/yS8vQMi3 & http://t.co/c78EI02P & at Foreign Policy http://t.co/8lNMbOUV Tough change $$ Nov 16, 2012
Xi Inherits an Economy That Needs Work http://t.co/bhS5DaC7 A decade of malinvestment should give way 2 a free economy, but it won’t $$ Nov 13, 2012
Examining China?s ?Shadow Stimulus? http://t.co/6Rv7HHGZ Avoid Chinese wealth management products, they are likely 2b Ponzi schemes $$ Nov 13, 2012
Wary of Future, Professionals Leave China in Record Numbers http://t.co/0pI04Bso Let them come 2 America! Throw the doors open 4 them! $$ Nov 13, 2012

Eurozone

Pettis on Spain: “Given how rapidly the political environment is deteriorating, I have little doubt it will leave the euro.” $$ Nov 16, 2012
Multinationals Find Loopholes Galore in Europe http://t.co/EZlRNNNY Wonder when the developed countries reconcile corporate tax policy? $$ Nov 16, 2012
Europe Gives Greece 2 More Years to Reach Deficit Targets http://t.co/N34PPFWQ Extend & pretend, no way Greek Debt/GDP gets below 120% $$ Nov 13, 2012
Ex-Goldman Bankers See Crisis Opportunity in Greek Insurance http://t.co/XvzZRWYE There may be value scouring the PIIGS for investments $$ Nov 13, 2012
Rajoy Aims to Stem Evictions as Suicide Darkens Crisis http://t.co/LdKVjUv5 Spain has it tough. Not much the government can do though $$ Nov 13, 2012
EU budget talks collapse http://t.co/6SvZ6nrC Austerity works when the problems are small; when problems are big, inflation is the cure $$ Nov 13, 2012

Rest of the World|

Funds Bet Against Japan Inc. http://t.co/6rIDALbP Hedge funds buy protection on the CDS of large Japanese companies, timing a problem $$ Nov 16, 2012
Jordanians Protest Fuel-Subsidy Cut, Demand King?s Ouster http://t.co/hMdSsnrY When conditions r poor, even small changes lead 2 panic $$ Nov 16, 2012
Japan Megabanks? $6.7 Billion Stock Losses May Spur Selloff http://t.co/gNOLmkuY Losses will b taken; banks disentangling from industry $$ Nov 15, 2012
Canadians Aren?t Heeding Debt Warnings http://t.co/nv2Pbt9R Debts grow as low rates lead to overleverage in the Canadian economy $$ Nov 14, 2012
US Conference Board fears Brics miracle over as world faces decade-long slump http://t.co/zXyjNdmU Overindebted world growth soggy $$ Nov 14, 2012
Hedging China risks, Japanese firms turn to booming Southeast Asia http://t.co/mmiuBPGB Japan spreads its manufacturing risk 2 new places $$ Nov 14, 2012
http://t.co/OtaZcRhc How are debt levels in Israel? Are they catching the disease creeping up on Australia, Canada, & Sweden? $$ Nov 14, 2012
Brazilian Stocks Squeezed by Rousseff as Valuations Increase http://t.co/PnNddJun This is why I have sold my Brazil holdings: Dilma $$ Nov 13, 2012

Companies

SandRidge Investor Revolt Mounts Over ?Critical Failures? http://t.co/zSmC0YlK $SD mgmt bets natgas prices will rise relative 2 crude $$ Nov 16, 2012
Twinkie Maker Hostess to Shut Down After Strike http://t.co/sAq4PrCb Delivers a sweet loss 2 all stakeholders, but Twinkies will return $$ Nov 16, 2012
Amazon and the art of evasion http://t.co/0DA7kIgj You have to understand, at its heart, $AMZN is a nonprofit enterprise, killing many $$ Nov 15, 2012
Goldman Using Technology to Become Wal-Mart of Wall Street http://t.co/h8pGuaSe Low cost wins in commoditized space, but machines err 2 Nov 14, 2012

Wrong

http://t.co/cWlyHVR8 Too many neoclassical economists. They didn?t foresee the last crisis; how will they do better next time? $$ Nov 14, 2012
Wrong: 6 Ways to Profit from the “New Saudi Arabia of Energy” http://t.co/md6bNR81 One stray misunderstood “fact” can do a lot of harm $$ Nov 13, 2012
Wrong: Is the Insurance Industry Doing Enough to Address Climate Change? http://t.co/06gAsTgF Climate always changes; nothing has changed $$ Nov 13, 2012
Wrong: ‘Baby Berkshire’ Leucadia matures with Jefferies deal http://t.co/HYo4f3MA $LUK does not have the cheap finance of $BRK.B $$ Nov 13, 2012

Other

Federal deficit hits $120 billion in October; bad start to fiscal year http://t.co/Bo3TQqZx By 2017 Obama might triple debts of 2009 $$ Nov 14, 2012
Public pension funds face vast shortfall http://t.co/R2qMQJe1 <- Summary article. Protections 4municipal bens-> http://t.co/xDkQKW8n $$ Nov 14, 2012
Buffett company to close Va. newspaper, cut 105 jobs http://t.co/51FGQGE9 Small newspaper not far from DC; no reason 4 it to exist $$ Nov 14, 2012
$BAC Offers to Buy $MBI Bonds to Block Amendment http://t.co/VTAeeIW0 $300M goes from stockholders to 5.7% bondholders $$ #poof Nov 13, 2012
5 money moves a post-bubble buyer is making now http://t.co/8HqPJRWe Main idea: buy what is despised now. Don’t take normal risks $$ Nov 13, 2012
10 things 401(k) plans won?t tell you http://t.co/o0VWXmim Main point is that average people are not good at managing pension assets $$ Nov 13, 2012
New DNA Techniques End Mystery of What Ails Baby Patrick http://t.co/3SrJ9R7j Analyze DNA after an abnormal birth. 2nd order effects? $$ Nov 13, 2012

Replies

@CJEHunt @euromoney Many thanks, Christopher. Remember that 1 fondly. Remember discussing theses w/ @Steve_Hanke @ Balt CFA mtg ~2000-1 $$ Nov 17, 2012
@euromoney Thanks for the #FF . U did an article in 1998 that was prescient about troubles the Euro would have. Could I get a copy of it? Nov 16, 2012
@BloombergView don’t know who to send this 2, but big disimprovement on the US bonds page on the BB web: http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK less data $$ Nov 16, 2012
‘ @TheCreditBubble Akre and Hawkshaw Nov 16, 2012
@EddyElfenbein But it is not too much if it is a non-profit. After all, an absurd valuation is still absurd at double absurd. $$ Nov 15, 2012
@researchpuzzler My mom used to say that 2 me, but positively because her parents were bright Nov 14, 2012
. @ctindale @BlackRaven999 Eric Hovde used to say that. We don’t repeat our parents mistakes, we repeat those of our grandfathers $$ Nov 14, 2012
@thinkingtrades I remember getting heckled writing pieces at RealMoney on the husing bubble 5/2005 & Subprime RMBS 11/2006 Can b forseen $$ Nov 14, 2012
@BlackRaven999 @ctindale U r right that if they had an effective model, steps might b taken 2 avert a crisis. Tough 2 fight a boom though $$ Nov 14, 2012
@ctindale @BlackRaven999 Used to work 4 a hedge fund that was predicting the crisis. Problem was we were 2 early. Made $$ at end though Nov 14, 2012
@euromoney Yes, that is why in developed mkts. Also, the knock-on effects hit GDP more rapidly from a sell-off in bonds than equities $$ Nov 14, 2012
@euromoney I worry about that too. Unintended consequences in the bond markets would b much more severe than in equity markets $$ Nov 14, 2012
@felixsalmon & terminated in 12/2008: 10Y Tsy avgd 2.42% then… prob a good move in hindsight, though terminating 1yr earlier/later better Nov 14, 2012
@felixsalmon This story says the swaps were put on in 2004: http://t.co/n3dWsLMF 10Y avgd 4.27% then. Nov 14, 2012
@felixsalmon @jennablan They put on the swaps while he was President 2001-6, not enough data, but the 10Y avgd 4.40% over his Presidency $$ Nov 14, 2012
@mickwe @BradErvin1 and thanks to both of you — I got 4 notes on this; I appreciate my readers. Nov 14, 2012
@mickwe @BradErvin1 Mistake in pasting HTML that left code behind that was invisible in the editor, but visible once published. Fixed now Nov 14, 2012
@PlanMaestro Maybe $MBI could offer to sell itself 2 $BAC, or offer a minority stake in the healthy sub in exchange 4 their consent $$ Nov 13, 2012

Retweets

Will certainly turn out moist $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Bacon-wrapped Thanksgiving turkey. The American Eater wins again. http://t.co/Il1RaiET Nov 16, 2012
Both RT @researchpuzzler: Q from @jasonzweigwsj: is it HY investors that are crazy or policymakers? http://t.co/hneJaRrq how about both? $$ Nov 16, 2012
That tweet just fell on my head. Ow. RT @EddyElfenbein: So Newton was right. $AAPL does obey gravity. Nov 16, 2012
Interesting CEF sorter, thanks RT @abnormalreturns: A big jump in the number of CEFs trading at a +15% discount. http://t.co/XORvF8eA $$ Nov 16, 2012
You can say that again. Yahoo too $$ RT @gilaniali: If that use Gmail they should turn on two factor authentication. http://t.co/5YyAlYF2 Nov 16, 2012
Cultural prob $$ RT @niubi: ?@ChinaGeeks: NEW 2NON POST: Why Rural Chinese Kids Don’t Go to College http://t.co/QEVlINtG the meritocracy… Nov 15, 2012
RT @researchpuzzler: RT @DavidSchawel: One of the first days in a LONG time that the credit markets have shown some cracks – will be int … Nov 14, 2012
War threats via Twitter. Twitter has arrived $$ RT @kept_simple: Until Obama RTs the IDF, how can we be certain he supports Israel? Nov 14, 2012
The central point RT @ctindale: @BlackRaven999 it’s the central differentiator neo classical don’t factor in debt levels Nov 14, 2012
Talking about dealer mkts $$ RT @moneyscience: Financial markets going through worst period in decades, says ICAP boss http://t.co/3haobsSa Nov 14, 2012
Not surprised $$ RT @kaylatausche: BREAKING: House report released tomorrow to show decisions by Corzine led to #MFGlobal collapse. Nov 14, 2012
Last year of 10Y Tsy: http://t.co/KisbqSMv RT @felixsalmon: Whoa, when did that happen? RT @jennablan: Oh, wow, 10-year now at 1.60% $$ Nov 14, 2012
+1 😉 RT @ReformedBroker: .@LukeRussert doesn’t understand that for Nancy Pelosi to step down, someone from Kansas must drop a house on her Nov 14, 2012
$$ Will kill us if Fed Chair RT @pdacosta: Fed’s Yellen says rates may need to stay near zero until early 2016 to forcefully lift employment Nov 13, 2012
RT @joshuademasi: @AlephBlog “purpose of studying eco is not to acquire a set of answers to eco ?s, but to learn how to avoid being dece … Nov 14, 2012
+1 RT @JonathanProber: @AlephBlog Perhaps many economists would agree we should try to become less reliant on economists in general? Nov 14, 2012
RT @prchovanec: Funding of China’s investment-led growth is shifting from bank lending to alternatives promising higher returns on same … Nov 13, 2012

Comments

“How is $FB counted in this? IPO shares, shares unlocked, or total market cap?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/TOX6vQuF $$ http://t.co/CyrvguQ8 Nov 16, 2012
“Anything that can survive a nuclear war can certainly survive a mere bankruptcy!” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/l3KAxKo4 $$ cc: @danprimack Nov 16, 2012
Three of my friends had their email accounts hacked today. Anybody else experience something similar? $$ Nov 16, 2012
I track 76 13F filings — oddest thing of the qtr is that two of them sold everything down to only one long position. $$ Nov 16, 2012
“I think you made the right decision, Tadas. All bloggers have to have sustainable lives, including you” Merkel http://t.co/yPaYpLj7 $$ Nov 15, 2012
“You know things are tough in the Middle East when there r groups more extreme than Hamas” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/zKMtnAJs $$ Nov 15, 2012
I think Buffett instructs whoever files the 13F for $BRK.B to make it as difficult as possible to import into Excel Nov 14, 2012
Professional investors would be sad if retail left the mkt. Lucy would feel the same if Charlie Brown gave up trying to kick the football $$ Nov 14, 2012
13F filings are so much fun; so many ways to obscure the data Nov 14, 2012
Carnage among levered CEFs that hold risky debt — many down 3%+ Nov 14, 2012
After the hurricanes in 2004-5, ppl said it was global warming, just in time to get 6 low hurricane damage years. 1 storm creates panic $$ Nov 13, 2012
“Though you are not new, of bloggers originating since 2009, you are my favorite.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/PPw0N6SR $$ Nov 13, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 10 November 2012 by David Merkel

Politics

California Democrats seize super majorities in both houses of Legislature http://t.co/Wp2cVYTF CA businesses plan exit strategies $$ Nov 08, 2012
Harsher energy regulations coming in Obama’s second term http://t.co/JHDKAhok Fracking, chemical emissions, & more $$ -losing green energy Nov 08, 2012
US crop insurance a post-election target, farm bill elusive http://t.co/9OdbRVjy W/Ag doing so well over last 5 yrs, this should b ez, not Nov 08, 2012
Ethanol Going Ugly Turns Bush Plan Into Obama Test http://t.co/Pe6ixxc1 Should b a no-brainer, but Congress ag state politics r ugly $$ Nov 08, 2012
Could This Be End of Evil Filibuster? http://t.co/t72aR3OR Limit filibusters to actual votes & require physical presence on the floor $$ Nov 08, 2012
Obama Win Means Health Overhaul to Move Ahead in States http://t.co/ybXggsLt Destroy health care 2 replace it w/single-payer system $$ Nov 08, 2012
Yep, There Have Been Problems With Email Voting in New Jersey http://t.co/lZjzVNrG In general, probability of fraud in voting is rising $$ Nov 07, 2012
Defense Fund Rockets to Four-Year High: Romney Rally? http://t.co/3fzUDRTH Discounting Obama’s change of heart after election $$ 😉 Nov 06, 2012
Romney Threatens Pimco?s Gross With Bernanke-Dumping Plan http://t.co/xO6Tm0aF 2 many links in the chain of reasoning; low prob correct $$ Nov 06, 2012
Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ‘Did I vote?’ http://t.co/2ZwRgotp I found his words to his wife 2b touching in many ways $$ Nov 06, 2012
Tuesday Is Election Night, Be Careful What You Tweet http://t.co/UdPPMYiJ Measure twice, cut once, tweeps. & bring a dose of skepticism $$ Nov 05, 2012
Three Men Make a Tiger http://t.co/eX1PziJK John Mauldin predicts Romney as victor; piece is mostly about eliminating confirmation bias $$ Nov 05, 2012

China

China: Worse Than You Ever Imagined http://t.co/Kp69IC1n 40MM+ people were killed during the “Great Leap Forward.” Mao deserves derision $$ Nov 08, 2012
China’s leadership challenge in new era: douse “inequality volcano” http://t.co/pJiAksUl Widespread poverty in China scares Communist Party Nov 08, 2012
A Cheerleader for Mao’s Cultural Revolution http://t.co/d3RhdV95 Lied about Cultural Revolution & The Great Leap Forward. Millions died. Nov 08, 2012
The Chinese Credit Bubble – Full Frontal http://t.co/MDZn1jCs As I have argued for some time, total debt in China is quite high $$ #danger Nov 07, 2012

Companies

Peltz Takes Stake in Danone http://t.co/P1AdRe9G Danone $DANOY is a French firm, will be difficult to encourage change $$ Nov 08, 2012
Prudential Records $618 Million Loss on Derivatives http://t.co/6ZQK1Uk5 I worry about life industry; the acctg 4 secondary gtees: yuck $$ Nov 08, 2012
Nucor Galvanizes Gas Hopes http://t.co/NmfZ9fmJ $NUE provides capital 4 development of gas resources of $ECA -Gets 50% stake in wells $$ Nov 08, 2012
Office Depot-OfficeMax Deal Seen Rescuing Value http://t.co/bNsFKuJU The failure of office retailers as the non-profit $AMZN undercuts $$ Nov 07, 2012
SapuraKencana Agrees 2 Buy Seadrill Tender Rigs http://t.co/XXrAsjFj Interesting deal, clever investor; expands Malaysia exposure $SDRL $$ Nov 05, 2012
Sharp blunted, and it?s not alone http://t.co/5jTHzKuN Argues that Japanese electronics mfg & exports r getting killed by strong yen $$ Nov 04, 2012

Federal Reserve

Inflation, QE and forcing the banks to lend http://t.co/XuPgRPJm I’ve subscribed 2 The Economist for 25 years; they r getting dumber $$ Nov 04, 2012
Casting Dual Roles, at Treasury & the Fed http://t.co/kIwpAzZ3 Bernanke’s Last Supper & The Return Of Larry Summershttp://bit.ly/Sp9PBZ $$ Nov 04, 2012
Off of the last tweet, it would be nice 2c Bernanke retire; he really may b tired of the abuse. His prob was he thought he knew what 2 do $$ Nov 04, 2012
& as a result, could not c that Neoclassical macro does not work with an overindebted economy. We need fewer economists at the Fed & Tsy $$ Nov 04, 2012
Wrong: Seth Klarman Goes Nuts On The Fed In His Latest Investor Letter http://t.co/G6gAkMfU Y I think value investors should run the Fed $$ Nov 04, 2012
Seth Klarman, like most value investors, is farsighted & not just thinking about how to goose GDP for the next year. Klarman 4 Fed chair $$ Nov 04, 2012

Eurozone

Convergence between the core and the periphery economies in the Eurozone http://t.co/2oD2exeV Drowning PIIGS pull Germany & France under $$ Nov 08, 2012
ECB & Fed: Worlds Apart http://t.co/zZuaFiXU Axel Merk praises the ECB & disses the Fed. Argues that ECB has not gone fiscal as the Fed has Nov 08, 2012
Unsteady Greek Coalition Faces More Strikes http://t.co/dxQJYzmw Suspect they make it through; Greeks don’t want 2 leave Eurozone yet $$ Nov 05, 2012
The peripheral threat to France http://t.co/0atOAKZq Many of the PIIGS r getting more competitive relative 2 France. No E-zone w/o France Nov 04, 2012

Rest of the World

Old People Versus Babies, In One Graph http://t.co/Erk2Mu8z Global demographic crisis in one very easy to manipulate graphic $$ Nov 08, 2012
Iceland Sees Mortgage Bubble Threat From Foreign Cash http://t.co/djtYZDxw The problems of capital controls start to bite $$ #nofreelunch Nov 06, 2012
Turning Trash Into Tidy Profit http://t.co/FvM32C3a Optimistic story on turning trash into durable building materials in Senegal $$ Nov 05, 2012

Sandy and Disaster

Frederick County teen wins regional science competition http://t.co/F72thGx3 The software can read a picture & tell where it is. $$ Nov 08, 2012
Sandy’s Aftermath: Samuel Pritt Develops Geolocation Software http://t.co/InnwZaGe Young friend won Siemens US Science Competition $$ Nov 08, 2012
Insurance divides haves from have-nots after Sandy http://t.co/NngZdchm Insurance is for catastrophes; scrimp on frequency, not severity $$ Nov 04, 2012
Reserved Buoyancy, Down-Flooding, and Living Off the Grid http://t.co/TXxn9f6e The value of slack in physical systems, especially boats $$ Nov 03, 2012

Market Dynamics

FIRE IN THE DISCO! http://t.co/YComOnGA @reformedbroker warns us that a recession is coming, & talks about a decline in corporate profits $$ Nov 08, 2012
Even 6.75% is too high. Looking at the Q-ratio, CAPE10, & long high quality bond yields would make 4% more realistic http://t.co/vjP0X7y1 $$ Nov 06, 2012
Lightening the Pension Load http://t.co/bi2j6cdJ Never thought I’d c terminal funding return; can b bad 4 annuitants if insurer fails $$ Nov 06, 2012
Fitting Factors Into the Formula http://t.co/35speWwR Bob Arnott& Cliff Asness discuss quantitative investing; long article worth reading $$ Nov 06, 2012
TAGP expiration will put downward pressure on short-term yields http://t.co/YgwmR2bu Once guarantee goes, much S-T $$ will look 4a home $$ Nov 06, 2012
Cash as Trash, Cash as King, and Cash as a Weapon http://t.co/fWS1TOTl In different environments & hands, cash has different properties $$ Nov 06, 2012
Wrong: Is Your Manager Skillful?or Just Lucky? http://t.co/vJu2tTrd Bill Miller neglected “margin of safety” & reaped bad results $$ Nov 05, 2012
http://t.co/VRj1k4Vg They didn’t read paper closely. Performance of anomalies diminished, not destroyed, by publishing academic research $$ Nov 05, 2012
For John Maynard Keynes, Economic Theory Was a Sideline http://t.co/IVdB6Gyc He was a better investor than he was an economist $$ Nov 05, 2012
It?s the Earnings, Stupid: ?Atrocious? Q3 Turns Josh Brown Cautious http://t.co/a2ChJKTL Time 2b cautious says @reformedbroker. Calendar? Nov 05, 2012
“All I know: The next bankruptcy cycle, whether in 2 or 3 or 4 years, is going to be one for the ages. Count on it.” http://t.co/xtHy7lqj $$ Nov 03, 2012

Policy

A New Idea of How to Fix the Ratings Agencies http://t.co/fTEECPUP by @carney | My response: http://t.co/3dWFo2Pv $$ Nov 06, 2012
Investors won?t read the fine print http://t.co/t2W8Nrk9 Even many institutional investors become overworked, lazy, etc. & don’t read $$ Nov 06, 2012
Hero of the day, CPDO edition http://t.co/wIxyPo2T I remember 2006 when @alea_ @interfluidity & I (@ Realmoney) were criticizing CPDOs $$ Nov 05, 2012
Health-Care Law Spurs Shift to Part-Time Workers http://t.co/0ui2LGvm Law of unintended consequences: How 29-hr workweek got created $$ Nov 05, 2012
10 things walk-in clinics won?t tell you http://t.co/qKPj3D3R Major factor is the loss of continuity u have w/doctor who knows u $$ Nov 05, 2012
After Bailout, Giants Allowed to Dominate the Mortgage Business http://t.co/K9HZZWDu “Is this what we saved [the financial system] for?” $$ Nov 04, 2012

Retweets

Can say that again RT @bespokeinvest: Wow, big selloff in the last couple minutes of trading. Dow down 430 points since Tuesday’s close. $$ Nov 08, 2012
Some gift RT @pdacosta: Gift that keeps on taking: France, Belgium agree to pump 5.5B euros into bailed-out Dexia http://t.co/qgq8PI6R Nov 08, 2012
RT @ReformedBroker: This Greek austerity bill is the equivalent of slapping a Kick Me sign on the Troika’s back. Gives us one day’s peac … Nov 07, 2012
Rupert goes back to sleep $$ RT @felixsalmon: RT @dansabbagh: Pearson says FT is not for sale. “This particular Bloomberg story is wrong. ” Nov 06, 2012
RT @SimoneFoxman: you’ve got to be kidding me. — Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ?Did I vote?? http://t.co/2ZwRgotp Nov 06, 2012
First of many 2 come RT @FrancesDenmark: Indiana is the first state to drop its pension return expectations below 7.0% http://t.co/ir8anqN4 Nov 06, 2012
Murdoch would b interested $$ RT @ReformedBroker: The Financial Slides RT @TheStalwart: Who will buy the FT? Maybe BI in a reverse merger? Nov 06, 2012
Bite your tongue 🙂 Janet Yellen has exceeded the Peter Principle $$ RT @fundmyfund: precious metals say = janet yellen here we come Nov 06, 2012
Easy 2 talk tough, hard 2 not repay $$ RT @munilass: So much for cities standing up to Calpers http://t.co/xWIciI4C Nov 06, 2012
marriage changes u $$ RT @moorehn Surprising: single & married women are further apart politically than men & women r http://t.co/b4adY1pc Nov 06, 2012
Probably priced in $$ RT @kyles09: isn’t the exp of TAG a negative for the big bank stocks or do you think it is already priced in? Nov 06, 2012
I was just looking forward to the end of the political season, sigh RT @jfahmy: Hillary Clinton listed as current 2016 favorite (6:1 odds). Nov 05, 2012
Dog bites man RT @TheStalwart: National Review endorses Mitt Romney http://t.co/ZBAptg8Q Nov 05, 2012
Wow $$ RT @businessinsider: New York Magazine’s Breathtaking Cover Shows Manhattan From Up In The Sky by @KimBhasin http://t.co/FaTgCqA1 Nov 03, 2012

Replies

@valuewalk Thanks. $DANOY might do what they can to improve margins, but might play badly in France. Has mgmt been s/h-friendly in past? $$ Nov 08, 2012
@Frank_McG Very cool. We homeschool — only 4 left, 1 senior, 2 freshmen & a 5th grader. My wife is having a blast. $$ Nov 08, 2012
@TheOneDave You’re welcome — you do some great stuff Nov 07, 2012
@TheOneDave Hey, Dave, don’t see where we can get the Chart… Nov 07, 2012
@amacker Floating NAV, hehe Nov 07, 2012
@TheStalwart My friend and former boss Eric Hovde would have beaten Baldwin, and handily… Nov 07, 2012
@kyles09 My actuarial conservatism, and knowing that God can do whatever he wants with me Nov 07, 2012
@carney I hear you: I’m going to write a piece where I take my “eliminate the rating agencies model” and clarify it http://t.co/x4WsWaj3 $$ Nov 06, 2012
@PragCapitalist Thanks, Cullen. I applied that idea to corporate board elections when writing 4 Realmoney, Shame it didn’t get traction $$ Nov 06, 2012
@michaelroston Yes, but there is a lot of $$ on both sides, and the phones ring. WV & PA gambling firms & Christians vs MD gambling firms Nov 06, 2012
@michaelroston However, if you live in MD all u hear about is 7, the ballot measure expanding gambling. Other measures: <crickets> $$ Nov 06, 2012
@BradErvin1 That’s what I am saying — they r taking consensus risks $$ Nov 05, 2012
@BradErvin1 But my point about the balanced funds is this: in the selection he could invest in, they r all taking the same broad risks Nov 05, 2012
@BradErvin1 57, Married, one kid at home, significant assets good job, wife w/good health, 52, he not so healthy, has saved aggressively Nov 05, 2012
@FriedrichHayek I knew that Keynes got bailed out once (or was it twice?), but he learned from his losses, & was far better at the end $$ Nov 05, 2012
@MarketIntegrity @CFAInstitute @CFAcareers @CFAevents You might want to get different logos; it makes you look like u r RT-ing yourself $$ Nov 05, 2012
@japhychron Bingo. You got it. Nov 04, 2012
@TeamHeadwaters Forgot about that.. those are some of the best limestone deposits in the world, in an area ideal 4 potato farming, right? Nov 04, 2012
@nelson3748 That seems correct, but doesn’t S. Korea have the same issues w/the Chaebol, & they r functioning ok, seemingly… Nov 04, 2012
@munilass Thanks. I put it on my wish list. We discussed mishedging in the finance markets, Soros, &c. Nice of him 2 spend time w/little me. Nov 03, 2012
@munilass What’s the title of the book? I spent about ten minutes talking with him in early 2000 at a Complexity Theory conf @ Columbia U Nov 03, 2012

Comments

I suspect that Obama ends up winning the popular vote as well, and maybe surpasses 50%, fwiw, which isn’t much… $$ Nov 07, 2012
Best thing about elections: they’re over. Second best: gridlock continues. Worst: Four more years of Bush-clone Obama. $$ Nov 07, 2012
“Stocks aren’t GDP futures, so its not a lock that they immediately fall during the recession?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/CdH1CNuP Nov 08, 2012
Last pres election, took oldest child 2 vote. This time, took child #5 2 vote. If I live, next time will be kids 6 & 7. Time after, kid 8 $$ Nov 06, 2012
“Josh, the article is worth a read, but the Chronicle of Higher Education misreported on it. The?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/BFGqCw04 $$ Nov 06, 2012
“People easily forget that the stocks of commodity producers are very different than buying the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/dDlMNxIY $$ Nov 05, 2012
Helping a client w/his 401(k). Common balanced fund risk factors chosen: Low Duration, Medium credit quality, Large Cap Blend Equities $$ Nov 05, 2012
The benchmark changes added jobs that were created at an unknown earlier point in time. If they were… http://t.co/TmRLG1vg Nov 03, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 2 November 2012 by David Merkel

Rest of the World

Wrong: Panic Spreading Across Nations Outranks Trade http://t.co/TbYGmdlL The panic is rational. 2 much debt that cannot b paid back $$ Nov 03, 2012
Hong Kong Taxing Homebuyers in Bubble Fight http://t.co/4xEwAl7R Would that other nations had tried this rather than encouraging debt $$ Nov 03, 2012
http://t.co/gj6va2hE China’s 18th Communist Party Congress convenes in Beijing on 11/8 4a once-a-decade leadership change $$ Infographic Nov 01, 2012
Hollande Ducks as French Industry Bleeds Jobs http://t.co/nyQ89HaH If France doesn’t change, the Eurozone eventually will fall apart $$ Oct 31, 2012
Italy in political chaos as election nears http://t.co/fAE84PLn Italy exists 2 flesh out dictionary definitions of corruption & instability Oct 31, 2012
Ortega Tops Buffett With Zara Fortune of $53.6 Billion http://t.co/2uE9xajS Tough 2 make that much $$ off retailing apparel but he did it Oct 31, 2012
Malaysian Gold Plans Flourish as Savers Seek Higher Yield http://t.co/4OTzlTIW When yields are too low, many bad income schemes arise $$ Oct 31, 2012
The EC can claim “success” in CDS regulation http://t.co/kufYPnpz @soberlook tells us how the EU solved sovereign CDS by killing it $$ Oct 29, 2012
WHOA: Japan Has Its Own Fiscal Cliff, And People Are Actually Talking About A Risk Of Imminent Technical Default http://t.co/b3ldTp0f $$ Oct 29, 2012
Europe’s Crisis Spawns Calls for a Breakup?of Spain http://t.co/RvC0ctZB more here: http://t.co/h1faG4Yd Will b tough 2 stay whole $$ Oct 29, 2012

Insurance

Berkshire Hathaway buying Oriental Trading http://t.co/997JvhOS Buffett buys an Omaha company that sells party supplies nationally $$ Nov 03, 2012
MetLife’s Big Annuity Charge Linked to Regulatory Concern http://t.co/mNbA192Z Reserving 4 guarantees on variable products can b weak $$ Nov 03, 2012
Hartford Moves to Offer Annuity Buyouts http://t.co/dGmfth2h also http://t.co/aUpA2l2X Annuity-holders: don’t accept $HIG ‘s low offers Nov 03, 2012
P/C Insurers Can Handle Sandy Losses; Flood Program 2 Bear Brunt http://t.co/4WqN1uq1 Watch $TWGP, maybe $CB, property-centric reinsurers $$ Oct 31, 2012
Insurers Won’t Get Whole Tab http://t.co/O7oFk9Wd Important 2c that much damage is not insured, & flood insurance not bot by many $$ Oct 31, 2012
Berkshire Extends Housing Bet With Brookfield Venture http://t.co/zquFTiB1 Buffett increases residential real estate sales presence $$ Oct 31, 2012

Sandy

Nomads in Queens Endure Life on the Line as They Forage4 Gas http://t.co/hzMnZnNT Many Running on Empty in Newark http://t.co/CF4LAHWu Nov 03, 2012
Many Affected by #Sandy Lacked Flood Coverage http://t.co/0AYx5xb2 Common in low frequency areas to not get the flood cover $$ #rolldice Nov 01, 2012
#Sandy Seen Lifting Insurance Prices Amid ?New Reality? http://t.co/13kHQUs6 Might have a small upward move in rates; shouldn’t b big $$ Nov 01, 2012
Sandy Delivers a Digital Wallop to Eastern US http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Many datacenters have gotten soaked/fried; hope the data was backed up Nov 01, 2012
As far as the US equity indexes are concerned, the two day break for #Sandy had little effect on the stock markets $$ Oct 31, 2012
New York Subway System May Take Weeks to Recover From Storm http://t.co/thkL5qca Will be difficult to get into NYC by many means $$ Oct 30, 2012
US Stock Trading Shut for Second Day, Joining Bonds http://t.co/wZzh2MTg Markets likely to reopen on Wednesday, things still uncertain $$ Oct 30, 2012
Behind Decision to Close Markets http://t.co/nhLOKRQT Contingency plans to operate exchanges remotely will be the rule in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
Hurricane Sandy: Losses Estimated at $45 Billion http://t.co/dUZJ3cmi Seems high, but possible. More realistic: http://t.co/DgB638Ij $$ Oct 30, 2012
Sandy knocks out power to 82 percent of LIPA customers http://t.co/NkjJEbcU Astounding $$ Oct 30, 2012

Politics

The progressive case against Obama http://t.co/t8G5PsUL I may write “The Libertarian case against Romney,” b/c we really don’t know him $$ Nov 03, 2012
Disasters Create Bigger, Not Better, Government http://t.co/W91nFEqr The challenge is 2 decide in advance what risks r borne by whom $$ Nov 01, 2012

Energy

Mining Canada’s Oil Sands: Suddenly, Not a Sure Thing http://t.co/k77vrfOm High cost 2 produce vs tight oil from fracking in the US $$ Nov 03, 2012
Vladimir Putin Is The New Global Shah Of Oil http://t.co/MWckLbRY Putin gains control over Russian oil & gas; how will he use that? $$ Oct 30, 2012

Bonds

In Fixed Income, a Fight to Survive http://t.co/cOtfWbGB Investment banking in bonds favors a market structure w/6-10 major brokers $$ Nov 03, 2012
Low Rates Lure Yield Seekers Onto Thin Ice http://t.co/tMhYQOMr When amateurs reach 4 yield they usually don’t know the risks they take $$ Nov 01, 2012
Pimco?s Gross Says Quantitative Easing Not Leading to Investment http://t.co/WRlaCAqi Should not b a surprise, only affects HQ rates $$ Nov 01, 2012
Bond Sales Topping $3 Trillion Nears 2009 Record http://t.co/qkcYLj9f Corporate debt deserves its chance 2become a bubble. Will u help? $$ Nov 01, 2012
Who Loses When Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low? http://t.co/Umt8Wx6Q Savers, Banks, Insurers (Life more), Pensions, Endowments, & Trusts $$ Oct 31, 2012
Bernanke?s Cash Fueling Record Corporate Rally http://t.co/gHo8IfwT Corporate credit getting tempted to overissue from low yields $$ Oct 30, 2012
Hedge Funds Drawn to Fannie-Freddie Risk-Sharing Plan http://t.co/mQ5Muyum Creating new private mortgage securities in an unusual way $$ Oct 30, 2012
Bargain-Addicted Investors Ignore Perils of Low Rates http://t.co/datCWeCz Argues investors & borrowers underestimate economic weakness $$ Oct 29, 2012
Treasury Real Yields Turn Positive as Inflation Slows http://t.co/yDEc23uE I prefer the CPI and the GDP IPD 2 the PCE. #alphabetsoup $$ Oct 28, 2012
Cost of Bailing Out Fannie and Freddie Expected to Fall Sharply http://t.co/j4KSPeZj Looks more optimistic, so long as housing prices ^ Oct 28, 2012
Trusts, Bonds Lead Surge in Credit ‘Gambling’ http://t.co/TnTEmVTz Maturity & risk-based pricing only come after mkts have a failure event Oct 27, 2012
New Peril for Parents: Their Kids’ Student Loans http://t.co/tXaLTBNS Safer: Borrow directly & formal lend 2 yr kids $$ #dontcosign Oct 27, 2012
Here’s a Tip: Watch Those Pricey TIPS http://t.co/VRVNtqQC People are locking in increasingly larger losses vs the CPI, be wary $$ Oct 27, 2012
That said, the enhanced indexing is often a better strategy, but not everyone can do it; it would eventually distort the market $$ Oct 27, 2012
Is Your Bond Strategy Wrong? http://t.co/Aqa1zu3k Mkt cap weighting scales &is true idxing; other weighting schemes r enhanced idxing $$ Oct 27, 2012

Market Impact

Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? http://t.co/S8SbDy0r It reduces, but does not destroy; limits to arbitrage $$ Nov 03, 2012
Predicting the Next Shock to the Global Economy http://t.co/mMJS0uBu China, Fiscal Cliff, Oil price surge, European Bank failure, Earnings Nov 03, 2012
Sectors And Style: Which is the better way to view the market? http://t.co/WjpyjxyC Sectors. Been my view 4a while $$ ht: IndexUniverse Nov 01, 2012
Rich Stuck as Salient Curbs Withdrawals for Investors http://t.co/rBEjHpxs The sting of illiquidity at its finest; hedge fund halts w/d $$ Oct 30, 2012
THE REAL BEAUTY OF A BALANCED FUND http://t.co/vSxtlGYf “The beauty of rebalancing is that it forces us to do what we won?t want to do” $$ Oct 30, 2012
David Rosenberg Brought Down The House With This Depressing Presentation At A Conference This Week http://t.co/uFs8fSAB 2 wks dated $$ Oct 29, 2012
?Misunderstanding Financial Crises?, a Q&A with Gary Gorton http://t.co/DPfiegyK I will b reviewing this book soon; disagree on policy $$ Oct 29, 2012
Signal failure:Why illiquidity in one asset can spread quickly to others http://t.co/6o9mSz94 Investors sell risk assets at same time $$ Oct 29, 2012
SEC Weighs Bringing Back Fractions in Stock Prices http://t.co/cxwNcah7 Probably a mistake; there r better ways2 solve trading issues $$ Oct 27, 2012
Your Fund May Be ‘Adopted.’ So What? http://t.co/uS1ReuFJ Doesn’t affect existing holders, usually done2increase marketing 2 new holders Oct 27, 2012

Pensions & Endowments

Also, it is very difficult 4 avg ppl 2 invest a lump sum over a long horizon; that’s even difficult 4 professionals, unless u have lotsa $$ Nov 01, 2012
GM Retirees Take Lump Sum Buyout http://t.co/uyXo5KJU Usually a bad idea to take a lump sum buyout; avg ppl don’t estimate value well $$ $GM Nov 01, 2012
Preliminary Data Indicate Educational Endowments Earned Investment Returns Averaging -0.3% in FY2012 http://t.co/QJaU4mZI Tarnished model $$ Oct 29, 2012

Companies

VMware, the bell tolls for thee, and Microsoft is ringing it http://t.co/ykt7oiEa Never thought $MSFT would ever threaten a company again $$ Nov 03, 2012
Sharp Says It Faces Material Doubt on Survival http://t.co/3fIHwx6b From Sharp minds come… never mind… tech is a cutthroat sector $$ Nov 01, 2012
Honda starts making small jets in US, aims for ‘Civic of the Sky’ http://t.co/BkBhRaqs FD: + $HMC Unique jet may offer many advantages $$ Nov 01, 2012
Abbott Labs $ABT Said to Ready a $10B+ Bond Deal http://t.co/4iEG0eX5 Remember bigger 1 in 2002 4 $GE Capital. I passed & it sank $$ Oct 28, 2012

Other

Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago? http://t.co/bCgRBbUU If u r reading @reformedbroker u r. Happy 4th blogoversary! $$ Nov 01, 2012
Unsaving the U.S. economy http://t.co/vj0ujChh Low savings rate may aid GDP in the present, at the cost of lower GDP in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
Taming Stomachs With Fodmap Diet Spurs $8 Billion Market http://t.co/kyQlpvAA Eliminate a few sugars from diet & upset stomachs go away $$ Oct 30, 2012
Let?s Put America?s Bankers Out of Business Now http://t.co/ypHmnJiG I.e. not finance US debt via China & Japan, OPEC, etc. $$ #tough2do Oct 29, 2012
Counting das gold at Fort Knox http://t.co/ZEXNCooP This would be interesting if the Germans can audit it & no Americans can $$ Oct 29, 2012
A Dirty Investment http://t.co/vRLzHuhd Watch composition of the financing & get skittish when debt levels get hi4 new transactions $$ Oct 29, 2012
Great Ideas Bosses Never Hear http://t.co/lstKcyJF It’s a cultural thing. It’s easy to create a culture where new ideas r put down $$ Oct 29, 2012
Practice Makes Perfect?And Not Just for Jocks and Musicians http://t.co/mTlvuiBs Many disciplines benefit by making basics instictive $$ Oct 28, 2012
Windows 8 Success Hinges on $10 Component http://t.co/Q48L45Ic Hail the high-tech hinge! Variable friction for enhanced functionality $$ Oct 27, 2012

Comments

If states declare #Sandy not 2b a “hurricane” so hurricane deductibles don’t apply, expect 2c policy forms rewritten 4 future storms $$ Nov 01, 2012
It would be stupid2base your vote off the Friday jobs report. A related variable is better http://t.co/aqDsu4jY Labor Force Participation $$ Nov 01, 2012
“Sandy has not affected your ability to write trenchant posts, Josh. Well done.” David_Merkel http://t.co/KAhHWdbT http://t.co/U0KKS3Jm $$ Oct 31, 2012
It’s obvious that NYC and a number of coastal areas took some pretty bad whacks. Anyplace further inland get hit that badly? $$ #Sandy Oct 30, 2012
Sandy having her last hurrah in Baltimore. We are on the downhill slope from here. 20% of people lost power, much less than feared. $$ Oct 30, 2012
Trench on the uphill side of the yard is diverting water downhill and away from the house. Moderate winds & rain at present:Baltimore #Sandy Oct 29, 2012
If #Sandy has not turned toward the US Coast by 8AM ET, it will head out to sea. If so, will NOAA issue an apology? $$ Oct 29, 2012
Just tossing this out, but what if #Sandy doesn’t make landfall on the US Coast? Storm tracking east of predictions. $$ Oct 29, 2012
Men live in a dream world about women. Women live in a dream world about men. Sadly, they aren’t the same dream worlds. $$ Oct 27, 2012
And thus, good marriages require communication and compromise Oct 27, 2012

Retweets

Yeh, or Icahn’s son RT @valuewalk: or his son Nov 01, 2012
Carl only plays 4 Carl RT @srussolillo: Whitney Tilson Has ‘Mixed Feelings’ About Carl Icahn’s Netflix Stake http://t.co/r3TKOXK5 $NFLX Nov 01, 2012
RT @marketfolly: Tons of hedgies lately saying to avoid long-term treasuries. Makes sense, but contrarian move is obviously for them to … Oct 31, 2012
Y I never say IMHO RT @felixsalmon: RT @racheldodes: Observation: those who describe themselves as “humble” r usually the opposite of humble Oct 31, 2012
RT @cabaum1: My Bastiatian response to destruction-is-good crew: Why wait for natural diasters when we could nuke and rebuild cities all … Oct 30, 2012
+1 RT @Convertbond: I think we’ll see an a leak over to corporate CDS in #Europe as the sovereign short selling bad goes into effect #France Oct 30, 2012
RT @grossdm: Irony, and this is the last time I’ll use this pun. Biggest liquidity market to hit NY in decades causing historic illiquid … Oct 29, 2012
High required returns & unrealistic views of “alternatives” RT @The_Analyst: you mean illogical/delusional return assumptions, no? $$ Oct 29, 2012
Time to celebrate! RT @PragCapitalist: Minor miracle. Server transfer completed without destroying the website. Oct 28, 2012
I am with you there, I tell young ppl that RT @rossbrannon: Or don’t let kids get student loans at all. It’s the worst debt there is. $$ Oct 28, 2012

Replies

@jucojames Typically, I write about Buffett in the late Winter or early Spring, b/c I get the most data then. Quarterly releases r light $$ Nov 03, 2012
@jucojames Excellent 2 hear from you my friend. I hope your business continues 2 prosper. When I opened my doors 4 biz, I underperformed 🙁 Nov 03, 2012
@researchpuzzler The link to my article has extraneous stuff at the end does not work Nov 01, 2012
@BradErvin1 Not sure where you are going — this has cut across everyone, though men, young, old, & minorities more Nov 01, 2012
@michaellipson1 This is true, & it is one place where the average individual has an advantage over the actuarial tables; U know yr health $$ Nov 01, 2012
@crampell Politicians don’t like to admit that there r problems that r so big & complex that they can’t do anything about them $$ Nov 01, 2012
@TheStalwart It’s slower, I think. Many key internet nodes got knocked out by #Sandy. See: http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Nov 01, 2012
@merrillmatter @munilass What a cute kid. I don’t have any that small anymore. Kid #8 just turned 10, and she’s still cute, but they grow up Nov 01, 2012
@EddyElfenbein How do you dig these little gems up, Eddy? Oct 31, 2012
@carney Disasters don’t often happen on a correlated basis; people have cognitive bias 2 think they do; also shutting barn door after cow $$ Oct 31, 2012
@carney As a buyside insurance analyst back in 2006, everyone was saying what a bad disaster year it would be. I argued against it. $$ Oct 31, 2012
@PlanMaestro Challenge to govts is 2 set rates that reflect risk fairly, avoid permanent subsidy, & discourage efforts at non-compliance $$ Oct 31, 2012
@PlanMaestro They typically exist 4 low-frequency high-severity events & areas where insureds can’t or don’t take steps 2 avoid losses $$ Oct 31, 2012
@Alea_ Thanks, I get it, I think. Assets r more unbounded than processes like underwriting damages. Fair? Oct 31, 2012
@Alea_ But isn’t EVT better than alternatives when dealing w/questions like how do we size reserves 4 events larger than we have seen b4? $$ Oct 31, 2012
@finemrespice @carney “Most commercial policies provide flood coverage, though with some limits” http://t.co/UJPiQ8yV but homes, not $$ Oct 31, 2012
@joshgiersch The situation in China might be competitive, given the financial repression going on there. Oct 31, 2012
@joshgiersch You can say that again. When governments engage in financial repression, they tempt ppl to cut corners on safety 4 income $$ Oct 31, 2012
@JamesMarsh79 It’s not just ability, but willingness, and willingness is affected by politics as well as economics Oct 29, 2012
@real_taxloss Well done. That was well worth a read. Oct 29, 2012
@PlanMaestro I appreciate guys like you that I agree with half the time, and disagree with half the time. Makes me think. $$ Oct 28, 2012
@ColoradoCapital Nominally TIPS investor gets CPI – x if held to maturity. The nominal Tsy holder gets his yield [y]. Real: -x vs y-CPI $$ Oct 27, 2012
@munilass Is there a brief way to explain what incremental risks exist between a Puerto Rico GO & a generic state GO? Similar laws or not? Oct 27, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 26 October 2012 by David Merkel

Insurance

Insurers Must Boost Reserves for Residential Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Pretty trivial; change small, not worth making $$ Oct 26, 2012
The Randian and the Bailout http://t.co/45wGJSo2 Without a tax gift from the US Tsy, $AIG couldn’t pay off the bailout http://t.co/2O4k7vpA Oct 25, 2012
For that last tweet, full disclosure, long $AIZ for clients and me Oct 24, 2012
Assurant Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/pTbHUunV Over 8.75 yrs $AIZ has shrunk its share count from 142M to 78M $$ Oct 24, 2012
Weschler Rise From Grace Leads to Role Advising Buffett http://t.co/uUlYUPVK Interesting tale of a guy who can deal4 & value companies $$ Oct 22, 2012
Goldman Sachs Creates a Dividend+Buybacks Measure, & 4 Insurer Stocks Shine http://t.co/myQ8Ga1e I own 2 of them 4 clients. Which 2? $$ Oct 22, 2012

Central Banking

Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again http://t.co/5EO5Ejve Defend exports, import inflation, asset bubbles “Our currency, but your problem.” Oct 25, 2012
Approach risks ?distorting? decisions & ?it might be economically inefficient 2try2 push prices up so much,? Shiller http://t.co/Bs5GJPGX Oct 24, 2012
Redacted Version of the October 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/2jOMkLje Note: CPI inflation is at 2%, also inflation expectations rising $$ Oct 24, 2012
FOMC Statement: http://t.co/E2BOFdrr Oct 24, 2012
“We fail 2c the direct link, or even an indirect link, btw the size of the Fed’s balance sheet & the unemp rate” http://t.co/bM149U5Z $$ Oct 24, 2012
Buffett: ‘”I get a little worried about continuously expanding” the Fed’s balance sheet, he said on CNBC.’ http://t.co/KWIVYBIS $$ Oct 24, 2012
Traders Calling Singer?s Bluff on Intervention as Koruna Gains http://t.co/Y1ml4EZ4 Czech National Bank playing with fire, will burn $$ Oct 22, 2012
Would mean that the external effect of loose monetary policy have been played out, & the next big move is coming (but from where)? $$ Oct 22, 2012
Worst Carry Trades Show Central Banks at Stimulus Limit http://t.co/IDxi6uVq Interesting thought: if carrytraders can’t make money… $$ Oct 22, 2012

Fiscal Cliff

Firms Hit Brakes Before Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Tap brakes is more like it. Most think we won’t go over the cliff #gridlock $$ Oct 26, 2012
Aha! Here’s The REAL Reason Corporate Executives Are Freaking Out About The Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/oS8VZpsi Favors initiatives of Dems $$ Oct 22, 2012

Other

How Supap Kirtsaeng?s Textbooks Idea Led to Supreme Court http://t.co/h1CDWk1q What rights exist to re-sell something that you bought? $$ Oct 26, 2012
The Plot to Destroy America’s Beer http://t.co/3ElPpvvx A tale of cost-cutting, quality reductions. Light beers ascendant. $$ Oct 26, 2012
Sandy Nears Jamaica, Forecasters Weigh New England Threat http://t.co/R1HNSDm8 High Incidence, Low Power 4 Tropical Storms in 2012 $$ Oct 24, 2012
Calling All Germs http://t.co/BkfuReQq Cellphones Are Great for Sharing Photos?and Bacteria; Cleaning May Harm Screens $$ Oct 23, 2012
Romney?s Air Force Comparison Misses U.S. Edge in Jets http://t.co/3lFkg4KL There r some situations where more lower tech jets would help Oct 24, 2012
Dean, Marathon Split-Offs on Tap http://t.co/m5OLbAuI Post-split $DF looks interesting, if boring. More room 2 focus $$ Oct 22, 2012

Energy

Shale Glut Becomes $2 Diesel Using Gas-to-Liquids Plants http://t.co/sjUDsrVK This is the Holy Grail, because gasoline is tough2produce $$ Oct 26, 2012
The internal combustion engine is far from dead http://t.co/Ewa60lrw Most real improvements in energy efficiency deal w/fossil fuels $$ Oct 22, 2012
Americans Buying Fewer New Cars in Lifetime http://t.co/viB6dIlU long-term probably not a good sign; autos drive a lot of the economy $$ Oct 22, 2012
The Myth of Affordable Energy – Interview with Ed Dolan http://t.co/8jWI1faC Energy efficiency is increasing. Full cost pricing desirable $$ Oct 20, 2012

Demographics

Russian Funds Band Together to Repel Government Cash Grab http://t.co/72KWo3Bg Gotta b careful on pension funds cuz govts like 2 raid them Oct 26, 2012
More Americans delaying retirement until their 80s http://t.co/dZM4Tmqm This is the way it should be. Retirement s/b 4-5 years at most Oct 25, 2012
Can Japan?s Elderly Become Its Growth Engine? http://t.co/eqhsu54i This seems like wishful thinking to me. Spending from savings <> wages $$ Oct 24, 2012

Financials

U.S. securities regulator questions need for new broker standard http://t.co/iNUVJKIp Extending fiduciary standards 2 brokers in question Oct 24, 2012
Forcing frequent failures http://t.co/OL6WSfOM @interfluidity hits a home run in dealing with bank failures, & how to regulate Oct 24, 2012
Low Rates Pummel Banks http://t.co/577Fsc1i Borrowers Benefit, but Industry Lending Profits Hit Lowest Level in Three Years $$ Oct 23, 2012
Marsico: When Going Private Goes Wrong http://t.co/Vxyc40u7 June 2007 was the wrong time 2 LBO, then performance lags $$ My sympathies2them Oct 23, 2012
3 key money topics Romney-Obama debates ignored http://t.co/7j79IQ4V Housing prices, Investor protections & Retirement Savings $$ Oct 23, 2012
The end of stock market crashes? http://t.co/VjIALNEm I’m sorry, but the conclusion is bogus. Even if its works, only some could escape $$ Oct 23, 2012
Mortgage risks underestimated, economists conclude http://t.co/TFDpqz70 FHA uses a model that leads it to underestimate delinquency risk $$ Oct 22, 2012
Annaly Says Michael Farrell Dies After Cancer Diagnosed http://t.co/n5VNgi8m He was kind2me ~2000; willing2share ideas w/little me $$ $NLY Oct 22, 2012
Mortgage REITs: Not Just Yet http://t.co/20kPVBs2 I would be careful here & reduce exposure… they are always unstable vehicles $$ Oct 21, 2012
The Winner for Investors Is… http://t.co/eBQM5Ws4 @jasonzweigwsj points out the connection between returns & politics is tenuous $$ Oct 21, 2012

Economy

Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump http://t.co/9q87q63I This is the US economy. We can’t support workers relative2profit Oct 26, 2012
Weak Tea at Unilever Persists Amid Innovation at Rivals http://t.co/ryqjkEof Did not even know that Lipton was a Unilever brand $$ $UL $UN Oct 24, 2012
Doom Heralded at Hayman by Widening Trade Deficit: Japan Credit http://t.co/CZS09whs Japan?s debt is the ?cleanest dirty shirt.? Not. $$ Oct 23, 2012
Hunger Stalks My Father?s India Long After Starvation End http://t.co/dkVTXxaO Long article, makes me grateful that I can feed my kids $$ Oct 23, 2012
Electrolux, Philips Warn Of US Slowdown http://t.co/6k5hxTe2 Another soggy data point; less demand 4 bigger-ticket consumer items $$ Oct 22, 2012

Retweets

Ya, true RT @glenntyrpa: @barnejek @AlephBlog @sikorskiradek Yea. When did Japan invade China? Was that 1930? 🙂 we Americans forget. Oct 26, 2012
RT @PragCapitalist: Today’s financial tip: don’t ever buy a boat. Instead, find a friend with a boat. If necessary, buy the friend. … Oct 24, 2012
Clever RT @BradErvin1: @AlephBlog @PragCapitalist This is Buffett, courtesy legacy @kevindepew articles @Minyanville http://t.co/dGTNG9kl $$ Oct 24, 2012
Stinks, just stinks RT @ritholtz: THE SELLSIDE: SAME AS IT EVER WAS Courthouse News Service http://t.co/K9LDmj5m via @CourthouseNews $$ Oct 24, 2012
RT @KathrynTully: The last of Sarah Thornton’s top reasons for quitting art market surely belongs in top 10 reasons not to be a journo. … Oct 24, 2012
RT @emckean: LOVE THIS RT @aniajakubek: There’s a Polish saying that means “Not my problem” & literally translates to “Not my circus … Oct 24, 2012
SIFMA gets an infamous big name to speak to them RT @LaurenLaCapra: #greenspan http://t.co/rjVlCfV5 Oct 23, 2012
At my house too RT @retheauditors: Halloween is dead to me. Oct 22, 2012

Replies

#FF @NickTimiraos @carney @grossdm @annsaphir @ritholtz @ToddSullivan @PlanMaestro @RolfeWinkler @LaurenLaCapra @davidgaffen @jennablan $$ Oct 27, 2012
@TraderNewsFeed No, I don’t think that. I think we should enjoy our work, and enjoy it for as long as we can, until we can no longer work $$ Oct 26, 2012
@rjwile True, but that’s the price of not saving enough. There is no right to a retirement. Someone send the EU the memo. $$ Oct 26, 2012
@OVVOFinancial I largely agree. Reducing the real value of debts would help. My only fear is that nominal incomes might not grow much $$ Oct 25, 2012
@OVVOFinancial Missed that, thanks. Still, the Chain-weighted PCE deflator is 1.5% yoy at present. Oct 25, 2012
@barnejek oops Oct 24, 2012
@PragCapitalist A boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money $$ That said, the recession created a lot of used boats 4 sale Oct 24, 2012
@tebaho I am not a Romney backer Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein lifted the stake above 50% by 1995. Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein In 1977, GEICO was ~6% of his public investments, before $BRK.B acquired 33% of the company by 1980, and buybacks + Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein In 1981, GEICO was ~30% of his public investments — no data on how big his private investments were then $BRK.B $$ Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein 1996-7 around 16% of pretax income. Prior to that, it was not wholly owned, and so Buffett acctd 4 it as an investment $$ Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein $BRK.B would not want to live without GEICO, but in my opinion, it could live without it Oct 24, 2012
@EddyElfenbein It’s about 5% of BRK’s pretax profits. The float it generates is very short and is only 5% of liabilities. Oct 24, 2012
@PragCapitalist It’s a conglomerate fueled by a set of huge insurance companies, where assets r sourced privately & publicly $$ $BRK.B Oct 24, 2012
@PlanMaestro @aarontask @TheStalwart I think it is spurious correlation b/c I c many other variable that r weak. US economy is flat. $$ Oct 24, 2012
@felixsalmon In the NT Greek, there r2 words for God’s will, &1 tells u God ordains everything, the other, he doesn’t approve everything Oct 24, 2012
@CflGator I would ask the question, how is $TGT going to deploy the capital? The answer probably lies there. Oct 24, 2012
@LDrogen America’s politicians have always made appeals based on religion, & then abandoned the religious voters that support them (not new) Oct 24, 2012
@joshuademasi I realize with Japan, it is unlikely 4 there 2b an external default, until the external debt gets big enough Oct 24, 2012
@aarontask This is a stock versus flow issue. The banks reap capital gains now, but it will reduce their future interest margins/income $$ Oct 24, 2012
@CflGator Think they are trying to free up capital for alternative uses. Oct 24, 2012
@LDrogen But all people have unprovable a priori opinions, and many will affect their views on public policy, whether “religious” or not Oct 24, 2012
@LDrogen It becomes the same paradox that philosophers go through with respect to the concept of free will vs determinism Oct 24, 2012
@LDrogen Even 2a Christian like me, God’s will is a highly nuanced, b/c there r 2 words in NT Greek 4 “will” & they mean different things Oct 24, 2012
@LDrogen One of my close friends came into existence as a result of a rape. Two good people adopted him; biological mother was courageous Oct 24, 2012
. @aarontask will look for it — if anyone has a link 2 it, pass it 2 me Oct 24, 2012
@joshuademasi Nations with their own currencies don’t have to default on debts. I think some will choose to default for political reasons $$ Oct 23, 2012
“This brings up something @ritholtz would say ~ blog traffic goes up during a crisis?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9U0OxjLe $$ Oct 23, 2012
@joshuademasi Not sure he will lose; he has a decent chance of being correct. Japan has preceded the global economy for past 20 years $$ Oct 23, 2012
“5. Tadas, as you have said before, investment/finance blogging is hard. And many of the best of us?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/EuaE0hmB Oct 23, 2012
@StephenShiflett I distrust polls generally. I am not a Romney supporter. Most statistical comments in the media r not well-founded $$ Oct 23, 2012
@StephenShiflett Stratification matters more. The size was smaller than most polls I c, & instant senses of who 1r often not correct Oct 23, 2012
@DUNNER2 @CBSNews Now there was a poll that no one asked for, the sample size was far too small, but actually had a real impact. Sad. Oct 23, 2012
@Shwaver should be more like 5% if the poll is well stratified, and most polls aren’t Oct 23, 2012
@thejudge1082 @cbsnews I would criticize that as well. Most polls are too small and not well stratified Oct 23, 2012
@nmariecrumbie @DJDougMadrid @cbsnews I am *not* a backer of Romney. I am voting for the Constitution Party. I am a statistician, are you? Oct 23, 2012
@Justsaying1104 @CBSNews size *always* matters. I am a statisticiam by training. The hyper-short news cycle forced out a poll Oct 23, 2012
@Justsaying1104 @cbsnews of course size matters — what I object to is trying to get instant answers to what people are thinking $$ Oct 23, 2012
@ituzzip On a 500 person poll the error bounds are wider +/- 5%. But Rs answer polls less often than Ds. Oct 23, 2012
@JW28 Sorry, I am not a Romney backer Oct 23, 2012
@DJDougMadrid I don’t believe in instant, & I am voting 3rd party. Oct 23, 2012
@StephenShiflett Most polls I see are double that, it was still small, given the short time after the debate. Oct 23, 2012
@CBSNews Small sample size Oct 23, 2012
@TheStalwart I think you are fair and balanced, because A third of the time I agree, a third I disagree, and a third I an in-between. $$ Oct 23, 2012
@wallstCS FD: long $SFG — You do realize that revenue is not a useful valuation metric for insurers, right? Earnings & Book r relevant $$ Oct 22, 2012
@groditi @GaelicTorus it drives a lot of technology development, materials science, design (or lack thereof), advertising, energy efficiency Oct 22, 2012
@BradErvin1 No, the point is that corrupt governments tend to spawn corruption in society Oct 20, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 19 October 2012 by David Merkel

Sorry I missed last week.? Thanks to those who like this.

Monetary Policy

Black Monday and the Greenspan put http://t.co/f9nvCtLd Initial error of Alan Greenspan. Fine-tuning monetary policy 2 remove volatility $$ Oct 20, 2012
Southeast Asia Seen Leading Rate Increases Next Year http://t.co/KFsz14Wj I doubt it; $$ laxity is the rule of the time; tough 2 fight Oct 19, 2012
Wall Street CMOs Crushed as Sales @ 3-Yr Low http://t.co/n4avsQeR Wouldn’t call a 15% drop “crushed.” Fed feeding on their collateral $$ Oct 18, 2012
Fed-Induced Stock P/E Gains Seen Ending Soon http://t.co/FdN3zvgm Effects of QE3 s/b fully anticipated by now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
Currency Wars: US Attack http://t.co/XbjCmjhB Axel Merk criticizes Bernanke’s claim that US monetary policy isn’t a major prob 4 emg mkts $$ Oct 17, 2012
Yes, it is more complex, but easy developed country monetary policy does make life tough for emerging… http://t.co/qPiFz9pQ Oct 15, 2012

Financial Blogging

The Critic Wall Street Loves to Lunch With http://t.co/ZdomDj3R @felixsalmon one of the leaders of financial blogging gets profiled here $$ Oct 20, 2012
6 blogs u should be reading http://t.co/7aohlAcp @reformedbroker @thestalwart @calculatedrisk @pragcapitalist @convertbond & Bess Levin Oct 18, 2012

Hoisington

Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
“During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule?indeed, ?nearly not observable.? Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
“Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the ?wealth effect? of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
Prior Tweet quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

Rest of the World

Devastating Photos Of India’s Illegal Coal Mines http://t.co/iiuN8bo9 Government nationalizes coal mines; mafia springs up2 mine coal $$ Oct 20, 2012
Why China Has The Worst Farms In The World http://t.co/zFnHnLH8 Worst in the sense of productivity per worker; they have lots of workers $$ Oct 19, 2012
Why Indians Are Getting Poorer http://t.co/PMyTpfEC Over past year, the Indian currency lost around 20% of its value against the US $$ Oct 19, 2012
China Faces Tough Choice on Growth http://t.co/i0i1n35l Does the CCP continue to favor short-term self-interest, or long-term power? $$ Oct 19, 2012
Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ?97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

Financial Reform

A Simpler Way to End Too Big to Fail http://t.co/z680Sq1q Limit non-deposit liabilities; banks will scream; worthy 2b tried $$ Oct 19, 2012
EU, Japan Warn Against New US Swaps Rules http://t.co/9F7hTHpy Technical efficiency of mkts is less important than resiliency of mkts $$ Oct 18, 2012
Ex-GE Bankers Convicted of Municipal Bond Bid-Rig Scheme http://t.co/fFnANPyk 4 years of jail time; restitution plus 20% would b better $$ Oct 18, 2012
Swaps Collateral Costs May Increase Under Rules Weighed by SEC http://t.co/hbrVnyHx Raises costs some, probably the right idea $$ Oct 17, 2012
Treasurers Worry Over Accounting for MMF Changes http://t.co/RtF6jlve Geithner tries MMF reform. Better: http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Oct 16, 2012

Energy

Gasoline prices _ finally _ begin to slide http://t.co/zuEXNaIx Refineries finally catch up w/maintenance, outages & demand $$ Oct 19, 2012
First oil nears for Kazakhstan’s supergiant field http://t.co/Bzx5q6Td Kazakhstan reduces the amount of time that foreigner scan profit $$ Oct 18, 2012
California Asks Court to Reinstate Carbon Fuel Standard http://t.co/gLqnqTdj I am happy that I left California at age 27; unrealistic $$ Oct 17, 2012
Gas Market Stung by Rapid Traders http://t.co/UI9DqJjI HFT and “news” trading games in the futures markets. Running stops is not new $$ Oct 16, 2012

Eurozone

Spanish Borrowing Costs Ease http://t.co/evRNryY7 It won’t last, but enjoy it 4 now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
Retirement No Option for Older Workers in Europe?s Crisis http://t.co/KgjUYc01 Problem is greater in Europe because of lower fertility $$ Oct 17, 2012
Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
IMF?s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
IMF Sees ?Alarmingly High? Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012

Politics

Dem convention used corporate cash, despite pledge http://t.co/vCJuCrSa No one is truly a politician until they break a promise $$ Oct 18, 2012
Obama Pursuing Leakers Sends Warning to Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/hZ86Cx6O Hard to believe, but Obama outdoes Bush, Jr. 4 opacity $$ Oct 18, 2012
Romney?s Rates Seen Spurring Growth Too Little 2 Late http://t.co/fcogGy0V Nice 2c Obama & Romney competing 4 who can harm economy most $$ Oct 18, 2012
A123 Bankruptcy Gives Romney New Example of Green-Energy ?Loser? $$ $AONE http://t.co/gR2LvxRV Make green energy advocates take Physics Oct 17, 2012
Sorry, US Recoveries Really Aren?t Different http://t.co/5cseU4Nn Reinhart & Rogoff take on Romney’s advisors who say the US is different Oct 16, 2012
Romney Rolls in Rural Vote That May Provide Swing-State Margins http://t.co/D3dSdJBB Interesting perspective, but is that a big bloc? $$ Oct 16, 2012
Dividends: Start Screaming http://t.co/B37C7k9a This one is tough. Probability of a cooperative Congress after the elections is low $$ Oct 13, 2012
California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

Economic Strength / Weakness

Winners and losers as US weather patterns change http://t.co/1txs8dcg Worth a read 4 the list of winners & losers near the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
Challenges forcing change in trucking strategy http://t.co/mHjc4udb Definitely a soggy data point; US & global economies seem 2b slowing $$ Oct 18, 2012

Agriculture

Corn States Lead Record Crop-Loss Payout http://t.co/c1wzXD14 Crop insurers take a hit.

Taxpayers get hosed. Farmers doing fairly well $$ Oct 18, 2012

Drought brings record US cost for crop insurance subsidy http://t.co/ceUOLMUQ 2012, Taxpayers pay more, Insurers pay some, farmers benefit Oct 17, 2012
Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012
At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$? http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

Market Dynamics

Throwing Out Insiders Won’t Fix Corporate Boards http://t.co/ANKyNPiq Good boards watch over mgmt & have decent industry & company knowledge Oct 17, 2012
All-Time Highs, Almost There http://t.co/Aj1LR8AY Will the market hit new highs this year, in 2013, or when? $$ Oct 17, 2012
Legg Mason?s Miller Redeemed as Housing Bull http://t.co/n3tRTmF6 2 soon 2 say. Miller doesn’t seek a “margin of safety” when investing $$ Oct 15, 2012
Vanguard to JPMorgan Dodging Neediest Borrowers http://t.co/PsNN8UKG This is what you tend to see 1-2 years in advance of the crash $$ Oct 14, 2012
As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012
Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

Other

Welcome to the ?Desert of the Real? ? a postmodern economy http://t.co/g42NKcoa Increasing abstraction destroys economic intuition $$ Oct 18, 2012
Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking http://t.co/Yhi5xWaR Every bit of data requires the creation of a hypothesis to give it meaning $$ Oct 17, 2012
Global Finance Chiefs at Odds http://t.co/av5MQ01i Everyone pursuing similar policies (Loose $$ & deficits) reduces effectiveness 4 all Oct 15, 2012
Heidi N. Moore joins the Guardian’s US Team as Finance & Economics Editor http://t.co/In2oDnC6 Congrats @moorehn ! Will b reading u there $$ Oct 15, 2012
I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012
Musk?s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012

Insurance

Insurers Shed Annuity Assets http://t.co/bUZ2brqT This doesn’t feel right. other times when financial guys buy insurers, doesn’t work $$ Oct 18, 2012
If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012

Replies & Comments

@PlanMaestro 2 notes: rsv strengthing in Australia a concern, but not big. 2) Low ROE biz of the 90s is fading; life re was a loser then $$ Oct 20, 2012
@PlanMaestro I love $RGA . Good mgmt team. Less interest rate & stock market dependent than life insurers FD: long RGA for me and clients $$ Oct 20, 2012
@TheStalwart I get a few ridiculous marketing requests/day. Do all bloggers get them? I reply2them this picture $$ http://t.co/TGc2q4Er Oct 19, 2012
@BarbarianCap Sigh. Baltimore County is not as far gone as Baltimore City (which is also a county), but this is not wise or arms length $$ Oct 19, 2012
I just left a comment in “6 Wall Street blogs you should be reading – Jon Friedman’s Media Web – MarketWatch” http://t.co/qpeTAHcI Oct 18, 2012
@MattGGriffith Thanks. Will probably do a post in the near future expaning on that last paragraph. It struck me at the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
@laurenfosternyc Have you ever seen the “Gold Medal Gold Model?” http://t.co/5rPvqfEz Gold prices r a function of real interest rates $$ Oct 18, 2012
@CflGator these are deferred annuities so the life table plays no role. Problem is investing “too clever” inside a regulated life insurer $$ Oct 18, 2012
I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/AnaHcGKh Oct 15, 2012
I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/22AyCQ9I Oct 15, 2012
. @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
@wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
“Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
@munilass Get to sleep, Babylass will need you tomorrow. 🙂 Oct 09, 2012
@PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
@PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

Retweets

Yeah, & that is BV net of AOCI RT @PlanMaestro: $RGA : book value per share http://t.co/EQWDgiSL FD: long $RGA for myself & clients Oct 20, 2012
Jack speaks the truth, listen 2 him $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Jack Bogle: Get Out of the Casino http://t.co/gL0siD6v Oct 18, 2012
RT @fivethirtyeight: All polling data is massaged A LOT in an era when only 10% of people respond to surveys. So that also introduces a … Oct 17, 2012
RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 12 October 2012 by David Merkel

Hoisington Capital Management

. @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
@wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
“During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule?indeed, ?nearly not observable.? Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
“Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the ?wealth effect? of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
Prior Tweet a quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

Please Follow

#FF @japhychron @danprimack @treehcapital @insidermonkey @vitaliyk @herbgreenberg @tracyalloway @nancefinance @marykissel @diana_olick $$ Oct 13, 2012
Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012

Market Dynamics

As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012

Rest of the World

Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
IMF?s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
IMF Sees ?Alarmingly High? Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012
Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ?97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

US Real Estate

OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

Agriculture

Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012

Other

I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012
Musk?s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012
California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

Comments

“Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$? http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

On Angela

@PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
@PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

Retweets

RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
My week on twitter: 22 retweets received, 22 new followers, 16 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Oct 11, 2012
RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 5 October 2012 by David Merkel

Rest of the World

Chavez ?Likely? to Lose, Supporting Bonds, Barclays Says http://t.co/zcufsNLN Something optimistic 4a Friday afternoon; but will he go? $$ Oct 05, 2012
Spain Sees Divorce Driving Breakup of Towns in Recession http://t.co/J423DVhS Badly handled, economic problems lead2 relationship problems Oct 05, 2012
BOJ Seeks Help Against Deflation http://t.co/G1ONwoA7 Contrary to popular belief, low central bank policy rates inhibit growth $$ Oct 05, 2012
Europe Jumps on Bank-Overhaul Bandwagon http://t.co/daaAcm0l also http://t.co/oxESdQiY Basel has done a bad job setting capital levels Oct 03, 2012
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro http://t.co/KWlbuvkT Clever politician sways Merkel through Hollande & wins4now $$ Oct 03, 2012
The real risk is the Capriles wins by a little, & Chavez finds a way to retain power. $$ http://t.co/k5f5082A Oct 03, 2012
Property Funds, Bonds Supplant Europe Lenders http://t.co/ebXwgIxa Banks can’t lend; watch currency risk, liquidity risk & credit risk $$ Oct 02, 2012
Longest Rally in Nine Years for JGBs on Deflation http://t.co/dCzC59cM 6th straight quarter of gains: matches a similar stretch in 2003 $$ Oct 02, 2012
Norway?s Wealth Fund Targets U.S. Real Estate by End 2013 http://t.co/JQalAy2U They have a long time horizon; this isn’t 4 speculators $$ Oct 02, 2012
Spain Expects a Wider Budget Gap http://t.co/5AHLEGGI No surprise, Eurozone numbers r routinely gamed, b/c there is no enforcement $$ Oct 02, 2012
Trade Slows Around World http://t.co/YkTFRBDE Kind of a soggy feeling w/China slowing, huge gov’t deficits & loose $$ policy Oct 02, 2012

Energy

Bakken Crude Prices Rise as Railroad Reach Grows http://t.co/m34o45AD Fascinating 2c transportation matching crude supply & demand $$ Oct 05, 2012
Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports http://t.co/ycNBikZR Usually big, aggressive investments don’t work out. Small ones are manageable $$ Oct 05, 2012
California Refiners Ration Gasoline as Prices Near Record http://t.co/sWGlRBF1 also http://t.co/gk85k7jC Price of EPA fuel rules $$ Oct 05, 2012
Regulations help create shortages because gas in 1 area can’t be used in another. Time to simplify & have fewer blend? http://t.co/Y925MhFg Oct 04, 2012

Companies

Jet-Lease Billionaire Udvar-Hazy Takes On $AIG Hand That Fed Him http://t.co/04THKwF7 When AIG bot ILFC, took stock to avoid taxes, oops Oct 05, 2012
Apple?s Steve Jobs: What He Knew in 1983 http://t.co/JyLPvlbW Jobs was an amazing guy. What he foresaw makes him even more amazing. $$ Oct 04, 2012
Dan Loeb and Boyz II Men: Break Up Murphy Oil http://t.co/MdPhjujW $MUR doesn’t want to break up, but many oils cos r going that way $$ Oct 04, 2012

Federal Reserve

When central banks feel they need to reveal more & show action, they fall into a trap of over-acting, which leads to a liquidity trap $$ Oct 05, 2012
Fed Seeks to Clarify Plans http://t.co/DzOT2NXj Fed transparency is a bad idea. Fed managed $$ policy better when it revealed little Oct 05, 2012
Rubik?s Revolutions http://t.co/Q3SAYuJ6 @izkaminska takes us through the vagaries of why QE doesn’t do that much. We r Japan now $$ Oct 03, 2012
Don?t call it money printing, rubiks cube edition http://t.co/Eo5vkEkN No, QE is not money printing, but it won’t be easy 2 undo $$ Oct 03, 2012
Bernanke Seeks Gains for Stocks in Push for Jobs http://t.co/Xby6Bvd9 Monetary policy favors the rich over the poor in the current Fed $$ Oct 03, 2012
TIPS Show Inflation Alarm Fading as Options Give Fed Time http://t.co/YgLi0BDr Off ~15 bps since QE3 launch $$ http://t.co/J90Ch2FL Oct 02, 2012

Market Dynamics

Despite Gains, Many Flee Stock Market http://t.co/JRhWY0c8 Y retail investors tend to lose- fail 2 buy & hold @ a moderate risk level $$ Oct 05, 2012
Investors Jump Off the ‘Junk’ Pile http://t.co/iqbZRo5b New record in junk issuance, & a very low proportion of BBs, feels like 2006 $$ Oct 05, 2012
Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Keep Losing Market Share, And They May Be OK With It http://t.co/1gKpSevF RIAs Ascendent $$ Oct 04, 2012
My (Not so) Golden Rules About Investing (& Not Investing) http://t.co/YNReadXs HT: @reformedbroker 25.75 tungsten-filled investing rules $$ Oct 04, 2012
Early Impact Of 401(k) Fee Disclosure Rules http://t.co/HBdtk7Oy This will be big. When you really c how much expenses they charge, ouch $$ Oct 04, 2012
They’re back! Yield hunt pushes funds into CLOs, CDOs http://t.co/x47V6xSc Into the final phase of the credit rally. Wind it tighter! $$ Oct 04, 2012
Stop Me Before I Do Something Stupid http://t.co/tOjyLW7R Tips for becoming a more disciplined investor?and boosting your returns $$ Oct 03, 2012
The Three Most Overrated (& Underrated) Financial Planning Recommendations http://t.co/eIMjtTjt Worth a read $$ Oct 03, 2012
For Warren Buffett, the cash option is priceless http://t.co/srmJcalh If you have the discipline, the cash option has value, if not no $$ Oct 03, 2012
Damages http://t.co/MzXBB2QR Bill Gross takes an inflationary view, & assumes that the deflationary forces of the world will go away $$ Oct 03, 2012
Dylan Grice Writes His Most Negative Note Ever http://t.co/VIhFGEEc Notes that the present QE policy favors the rich over the poor $$ Oct 02, 2012
America?s new subprime boom: This time it?s cars http://t.co/EBkXqw0a This will b a positive trend for 2 yrs; worry out in 2014 $$ Oct 02, 2012
6 reasons to dump a bad mutual fund http://t.co/IleCG33t Could b simpler: sell when you find a fund w/better prospects net of loads $$ Oct 02, 2012

Politics

The Romney Reboot Arrives http://t.co/ViEoTb5L I’m voting 3rd party, but it is interesting 2c the presidential contest liven up $$ Oct 04, 2012
How to Make an Ailing World Economy Even Sicker http://t.co/XDiOkq5U The idea of gradually reducing the deficit is politically naive $$ Oct 03, 2012
Romney’s Middle-Class Tax Sale http://t.co/qywvSVXM The devil is in the details, & true of Obama as well. Ended up being Bush-plus $$ Oct 03, 2012
Romney Floats Idea of Itemized Deduction Cap http://t.co/E5nkUUO3 Has to be a cleaner way 2 do this. Ah, return to TRA ’86. Simple $$ Oct 03, 2012
Obama Cabinet Flunks Disclosure Test With 19 in 20 Ignoring Law http://t.co/Nt07Bgwu Less transparent than Bush http://t.co/NZ6A3PIs $$ Oct 02, 2012

Bank Regulation

Bank-Friendly US Regulator Shifts Focus to Revamp Reputation http://t.co/xUVY1UOE OCC is actually going to regulate banks?! Who knew? $$ Oct 04, 2012
Freddie’s Foreclosure Plan Hits Roadblock http://t.co/XrUeAjze We don’t get it. After 2 much debt financing housing we seek more debt $$ Oct 03, 2012
Banking should be a low ROE business.? High capital levels keep the banking system safe. $$ http://t.co/uUntNaXw Oct 03, 2012
Intelligence Exits Washington, Vacancies Rise http://t.co/VJt1y4KU Will b interesting 2c how comm RE pricing shifts as Wash DC retrenches Oct 03, 2012
Banks Like Munis; Mom-and-Pop Investors Don’t http://t.co/ugDPBL4F I don’t get how banks w/short liabilities can buy long munis $$ Oct 03, 2012
Sheila Bair: The one thing banking regulators should do now http://t.co/tu5jGYx4 Her solution is to raise capital requirements $$ Oct 02, 2012
A Very Strange Way to Assess the Safety of Banks http://t.co/8u05kbZO Simpler metrics than Basel r needed; complex ones r easy 2 game $$ Oct 02, 2012

Other

Big Picture Conference 10/10/12 http://t.co/IrsvZtU0 Lineup: Barofsky, Grice, Yamarone, O’Shaughnessy, Ritholtz, Rosenberg, Bianco & more $$ Oct 04, 2012
Bill Gross calls for a balanced budget so that all Treasury bonds & his bonds will get paid in full. $$ http://t.co/lTzq5zmf Oct 02, 2012
SEC Leads From Behind as High-Frequency Trading Shows Data Gap http://t.co/H6YnjVWr SEC way behind $NDAQ & $NYX in understanding HFT $$ Oct 02, 2012

Comments

RE: She bought Paypal, the most valuable part of $EBAY . What more could you ask for? $$ http://t.co/tfEVghRF Oct 04, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: Name 3 insurers that have managed Life & P&C operations well… I am a former insurance buy… http://t.co/aMsgW4nN Oct 03, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: Pretty certain that the DTAs would be divided up in a breakup. Insurance acctg tracks DTAs … http://t.co/NGmkWSmk Oct 03, 2012
RE: @bloombergview This really seems like wishful thinking. Huge difference in the way most Muslims & Westerners thin? http://t.co/rMt8w3zf Oct 03, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: $HIG has issues with variable products 2a higher degree, even though $AIG has the same issu… http://t.co/JWzZSvrV Oct 03, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: There r no synergies btw each of the 3 groups: no advantage to having P&C, Life & Other tog… http://t.co/sRU7zWys Oct 03, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: I would split P&C & Life & everything else — still a valid idea. http://t.co/FPAXZZUX Oct 02, 2012
RE: @PS46MMUCF4PDUIQ4LRUF3DMW2A That doesn’t solve “fat finger” problems, rogue automated trader, or feedback loop pr? http://t.co/EgjYsqbZ Oct 02, 2012

Replies

@incakolanews Could be… or maybe Barclays is trying to reduce its VZ bond inventory… Oct 05, 2012
. @The_Analyst The life insurance industry got burnt on CDO crops 1 (1998) & 2 (2001), but not 3 (2008), what will crop 4 yield? $$ Oct 04, 2012
@BlackRaven999 Both stock & flow are important, that is what makes this complex 2 understand Oct 03, 2012
@DividendMaster I think that either a significant recession &/or inflation is unavoidable. Delayed deficit decline means no deficit decline Oct 03, 2012
@BlackRaven999 Waiting till maturity leaves QE deposits in the system 4a long time due to twist. All removal of policy accommodation is hard Oct 03, 2012
@hook910 Take it up w/Buffett who has done it successfully. Intelligent businessmen do it: buy cheap assets when opportunities allow. $$ Oct 03, 2012
@hook910 With a long enough time horizon, and patient capital, market timing can succeed, value mgrs do this. This is what Buffett & FPA do Oct 03, 2012
@hook910 So you admit that the value of dry powder does change over time. Thanks! 😉 Oct 03, 2012
@hook910 It is not on option on cash, but cash can b thought of as an option on other assets. Was dry powder valuable in late 2008? Yes $$ Oct 03, 2012
@wanderinggull I think it is a bit of a stretch Oct 02, 2012
@DividendMaster They r attempting to lock in a smaller loss. Wonder when the yield on the 30-yr TIPS goes negative? $$ Oct 02, 2012
@ReformedBroker I respect Chuck Royce, but basically he is estimating the odds of deflation as being very low. What if China shrinks? $$ Oct 02, 2012
@TheStalwart Big installed base for LIBOR, easy to offer something better: even total up all US interbank lending 4a day, calc avg rate $$ Oct 02, 2012

Retweets

RT @ppearlman: RT @AlephBlog: Break up $AIG. I said it first here: http://t.co/MKsYqMYo then here: http://t.co/fZ6EW85e $$ Oct 02, 2012
Break up AIG $$ RT @ppearlman: RT @RonReuven @ppearlman no one understands all of $AIG’s assets or businesslines, including most of $AIG Oct 02, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 28 September 2012 by David Merkel

My week on twitter: 34 retweets received, 1 new listings, 33 new followers, 40 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Sep 27, 2012

Energy

Natural Gas Cars Are On The Road; Potholes Remain http://t.co/T9KxgbCa Optimistic that CNG & LNG will get enough distribution 2b viable $$ Sep 29, 2012
United Airlines will study Delta’s refinery bid http://t.co/iHEuWvfp This will not end well; fundamentally different businesses $$ $UA $DAL Sep 29, 2012

Rest of the World

Japan Data Show Recession Risk Growing http://t.co/UArgdWd4 “Find someone who is optimistic about the economy & ask them how they can b” Sep 29, 2012
Shanghai Bonded Copper Stocks May at Record, Survey Shows http://t.co/MMrqmsmi Glut of gluts, what will China do with a flat economy? $$ Sep 28, 2012
Toyota Unplugs Electric Car Hype http://t.co/s36gMkcZ Indeed it is hype, better 2 run cars on Natgas or gasoline $$ less waste 4 now Sep 28, 2012
China Bankrolling Chavez?s Re-Election Bid With Oil Loans http://t.co/y3tAN7WF China wants oil, Chavez wants $$ , a match made in… Sep 28, 2012
SNB Disputes S&P Estimate of Bond Purchases http://t.co/eC1AxRkc Well of course they would dispute it, harms their policy credibility $$ Sep 28, 2012
Spanish Bonds Slump as Marchers Plan Further Protests http://t.co/Sq3eiO1n Eurozone is a political construct, will agreement persist? $$ Sep 28, 2012
Why Asian Airlines Reign Supreme http://t.co/yNcjYfce It is amazing how great service drives the rankings $$ Sep 28, 2012
The real extent of China?s economic hard landing http://t.co/n6g2jBCP By one measure, China’s real GDP growth rate is 1.6% $$ Sep 24, 2012
Is China Burning? http://t.co/PxfPOebV China stirs up anti-Japanese hatred to divert attention away from the weakening economy $$ Sep 24, 2012
India Bids for ConocoPhillips Assets in Canada http://t.co/cIc6wlut Spidey sense says India will get the worse of it $$ FD: + $COP Sep 24, 2012
Aussie Debacle Flags China Hard Landing as Iron Market Melts http://t.co/8PKnupSl China sneezes, the Australians catch a cold $$ Sep 24, 2012
How weak must the Danish economy be, for them to do this? Are their banks in that bad of a shape? $$ http://t.co/vNR7Utt5 Sep 24, 2012

Credit Markets

Junk Bonds in US Poised for Biggest Retreat in 4 Months http://t.co/rIqU3rjt 2 early 4 a washout; no significant defaults on the radar $$ Sep 29, 2012
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low of 3.4% http://t.co/EB2UZaic Those that r not inverted can refinance; tough 4 rest $$ Sep 28, 2012
Mortgage-Bond Spreads Cap Biggest Weekly Drop Since December ?08 http://t.co/cjGISver Anticipates Future Fed buying, doesn’t help much $$ Sep 22, 2012

Central Banking

Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve http://t.co/QoHuWfGb Independent, non-partisan, non-conspiracy-theorist documentary comingsoon Sep 29, 2012
Bernanke Put: Beware of Easy Money http://t.co/bPsdilQM The lure of free money brings out the worst in all of us. $$ Sep 28, 2012
Plosser Says QE3 Risks Fed Credibility, Won?t Boost Jobs http://t.co/ffkpU2Jh Right; once we r @ the zero bound the Fed is impotent $$ Sep 28, 2012
Fed Helps Lenders? Profit More Than Homebuyers http://t.co/CYz6O8r0 Offering 2buy RMBS benefits existing holders more than anyone else $$ Sep 28, 2012
Sean Fieler: Easy Money Is Punishing the Middle Class http://t.co/Lg2yzUCs Who gets benefits of productivity improvement? Ppl or Govt $$ Sep 28, 2012
A time of hoarding and inflation fears, 1930s edition http://t.co/wOkNf0Uj @izakaminska tells us about inflation worries in the 1930s $$ Sep 25, 2012
Signs Of The Gold Standard Are Emerging From Germany http://t.co/YPLrNcvz Not likely; would be interesting 2c Germany go Euro -> Gold $$ Sep 24, 2012
‘Free’ Checking Costs More http://t.co/QXxPaQCH Another casualty of Fed policy, which disproportionately hurts those less-well off $$ Sep 24, 2012

US Politics

U.S. Unease Over Drone Strikes http://t.co/Hlc2djCz This is yet another reason y much of the Muslim world hates the US $$ Sep 28, 2012
US Ties Libya Attack to ‘Powder Keg’ in Mali http://t.co/998UPNLd When did the Obama administration know this, y wasn’t it disclosed? $$ Sep 28, 2012
Ryan at the AARP http://t.co/ZgXiPrkr He didn’t trim his ideas and still won applause. AARP leaders more liberal than members $$ Sep 24, 2012

Market Dynamics

Where stock market will be in fall of 2016 http://t.co/AolvDXon Seiver’s model indicates a flat market for the next four years $$ Sep 29, 2012
Wrong: An Easy Strategy For Bulking Up On Yield http://t.co/HYbdXqzT Better to buy companies w/strong dividend capacity than high divs $$ Sep 28, 2012
New Wave of Workers Tries Novel Approach: Save More http://t.co/sE9pp03d Everything old is new again; save $$, do not rely on returns Sep 28, 2012
Ken Fisher: Bull Market Is Halfway Done http://t.co/xDEa0MXq I am a moderate bull now, but I find that large cap leadership could fail. $$ Sep 28, 2012
Are financial advisers worth their fee? http://t.co/HdRYJ3ak Gamma: value of protecting an individual from buying high & selling low $$ Sep 28, 2012
Prospects for Stock and Bond Returns Are Dim http://t.co/IYAVPFAU The performance difference will depend on inflation vs deflation $$ Sep 24, 2012
Pension Crisis Looms Despite Cuts http://t.co/9ZW8eUeR Eventually state constitutions will be amended 2 roll back existing benefits $$ Sep 22, 2012
Borrowing Against Yourself http://t.co/kB7IVuN2 Debt against investments is usually a bad idea unless ur a specialist in the business $$ Sep 22, 2012

Miscellaneous

Auto-Insurance Cost to Rise 2.8% to $839, Group Says http://t.co/8XLCC4CE Insurance companies pass costs & reduced interest through $$ Sep 28, 2012
Scientific Reproducibility: Begley’s Six Rules http://t.co/8EkCDsMP Following the 6 rules would reduce the # of articles published $$ Sep 28, 2012
Gordon Moore’s journey http://t.co/PHYlU3Nq Long Q&A w/a founder of Intel; An accidental entrepreneur who knew his weaknesses $$ FD: + $INTC Sep 24, 2012
Bronte Capital?s short waves http://t.co/EHhxTO4j Do not underestimate John Hempton; bright guy. Very good @ spotting bad ideas/frauds $$ Sep 22, 2012
Yale Versus Norway http://t.co/aSF8PEZR Worth a read. My sympathies r w/Norway here, but I fear they r tooting their horn @ a bad time $$ Sep 22, 2012
Cheating Upwards http://t.co/UtDtRjSD Children r less ethical now than 35 years ago, who were less ethical than 35 years ago, who were… $$ Sep 22, 2012
Push to Let College Students Carry Guns Picks Up Steam http://t.co/ke6zM1Si Who is responsible for my protection? Me or the Govt? Me $$ Sep 22, 2012
How to Stop Hospitals From Killing Us http://t.co/QKOsAOpy Should b known: going 2a hospital can kill you. 6th leading cause of death $$ Sep 22, 2012

Responses

@AOverheard Could b a good move, would have to review the Stat statements. I sold my shares at a split-adjusted $290. Buying debt:no-brainer Sep 29, 2012
@historysquared In the process of raising 8 children (5 adopted) I have seen 1) those w/limited abilities expand them 2) those w/great + Sep 29, 2012
@historysquared abilities waste them. 3) those w/great abilities improve them, & 4) those w/limited abilities improve only a little Sep 29, 2012
@groditi Of all the companies that I own $SPLS worries me the most. Stronger than bricks & mortar competitors, but can they beat $AMZN? $$ Sep 28, 2012
@munilass I think both of those insights r correct; algorithms r only as good as the problems they r applied 2; most people don’t like logic Sep 28, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Well reasoned.? No arguments here. $$ http://t.co/ChJ9BDib Sep 26, 2012
RE: @bloombergview “Luck” happens when preparation meets opportunity, There are exceptions like Sixto in South Africa? http://t.co/JmFQSDFB Sep 26, 2012
@volatilitysmile All financials, or just depositary financials… would agree if it is the latter. Sep 25, 2012
@pjackson @LaurenLaCapra @_tpr @japhychron As an example, consider the tax reform act of 1986; almost all tax preferences lost. $$ Sep 25, 2012
@pjackson @LaurenLaCapra @_tpr @japhychron Or prepare for the day of the “grand bargain” where everyone’s ox is gored 4 the good of all $$ Sep 25, 2012
@pjackson @LaurenLaCapra @_tpr @japhychron I think you have to plan for the day of crisis, so that you can be ready to say, “Do this.” $$ Sep 25, 2012
@MerrittJennifer @LaurenLaCapra It would not be immediate, but housing prices would fall, & so would refinancing $$ Sep 25, 2012
@pjackson @LaurenLaCapra @_tpr @japhychron Lauren asked what we would do, not what was possible. Only a crisis will see actions taken $$ Sep 25, 2012
@japhychron @LaurenLaCapra @_tpr so that Medicare covers less: cheap fixes & palliative care; state rtees: deal to reduce all benefits $$ Sep 25, 2012
@LaurenLaCapra @_tpr @japhychron Hard to fit into a tweet; phase out GSEs & Int ded, shrink FHA, ag lending, scale back SS, redo Medicare + Sep 25, 2012
@LaurenLaCapra @_TPR @japhychron Ultimate Q is how many things we *can/should* subsidize, particularly w/GSEs, entitlements, state rtee bens Sep 25, 2012
RE: @bloombergview When the government or Fed buys the securities of companies, it plays favorites. We should make th? http://t.co/3ndyaApd Sep 24, 2012
@GregorMacdonald Re: gold, have u seen this? http://t.co/5rPvqfEz Re: solar, have u seen this? http://t.co/tZiaP5mV Wonder what it costs? Sep 22, 2012
@abnormalreturns Stocks r correlated w/inflation expectations. Gold is negatively correlated w/real rate of interest. Facts. $$ Sep 22, 2012
@etpxp Hard to do a real test. Sep 22, 2012

Retweets

In praise of all-cash compensation. RT @EpicureanDeal: Defending the Indefensible http://t.co/a7pGhqLr featuring @LaurenLaCapra Obvious $$ Sep 22, 2012
RT @volatilitysmile: “a failed president is running slightly ahead in the polls of a challenger who has a real CV but is so politically … Sep 24, 2012
At low OASs?! No $$ RT @PIMCO: Gross: How many Treasuries you own is not the question. How many 3 and 3.5% 30 year mtges is. Own mortgages Sep 24, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 22 September 2012 by David Merkel

Federal Reserve Policy / Treasury Yields

Great Tips-pectations http://t.co/nHWsNAFf Future inflation expectations are rising. Twenty year TIPS are flat to expected CPI $$ Sep 22, 2012
‘Titanic battle’ over deflation about to sink long bonds: Gross http://t.co/trPfwKj3 Didn’t he say this in 2011 & lose? Try, try, again? $$ Sep 22, 2012
Lacy Hunt at Hoisington called the trajectory on Treasury yields years ahead of time. http://t.co/4e4Bu12W Sep 21, 2012
Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair: TARP wasn?t necessary http://t.co/m4zJMkc5 Would have been better to let stockholders get wiped out $$ Sep 20, 2012
Fed?s Fisher Says U.S. Inflation Expectations Rising http://t.co/Qk4rUrNI Definitely: http://t.co/ZVA74EmF QEternal moved the TIPS $$ Sep 20, 2012
Stephen Roach: Fed?s Asset Purchases Are A ?Charade? http://t.co/nX4xh3zt QE is a theory that has no successes; Y does anyone believe it? $$ Sep 20, 2012
No Exit in Sight from Fed’s Bond Buying: Gundlach http://t.co/ULz27Bj8 It will be very difficult 4 the Fed 2 exit from their “stimulus” $$ Sep 20, 2012
The Road to Recovery http://t.co/P6Uz7CGP John B. Taylor is the man who should have been our Fed Chairman, unlike the pretender Bernanke $$ Sep 18, 2012
Fed’s ‘QE Infinity’: 4 Things That Could Go Wrong http://t.co/6CGNO5Yr Moral Hazard4Washington &Wall St, Hurting Confidence, May not work $$ Sep 16, 2012
Bernanke?s Battle for Jobs Eclipses Inflation Concerns http://t.co/bhRvXhZD How QE-inf will produce jobs is a mystery; OTOH stagflation $$ Sep 16, 2012
Mortgage-Bond Spreads Fall to Record Low as Fed Starts Buying http://t.co/LqcIYQhb Fed breaks agency RMBS mkt; some OASs drop to zero $$ Sep 16, 2012

Credit Markets

Credit rollovers & rally monkeys http://t.co/z4KH46ky Feels like 2005 in corporates, but w/easier money, & fewer securitizations $$ Sep 22, 2012
Company bond sales in US in Sept-12 total >$135.8B, fastest pace 4 any September & exceeds $124.6B sold in Sept-09 $$ http://t.co/EoKYwXrQ Sep 21, 2012
Private Debt Is Crippling the Economy http://t.co/km06r7TW Deleveraging has not taken place 2 the degree needed 2make the economy healthy $$ Sep 20, 2012
Risk Aversion Falls to Lowest Level in 2 Years http://t.co/ljJICAKM When risk measures r low, it is time to start being conservative. $$ Sep 18, 2012
Junk-Bond Yields Drop Below 7% for First Time, Index Data Shows http://t.co/VQBCbmq3 This is significant. Watch 4 leverage 2 grow $$ Sep 18, 2012
ETFs Overtaking Swaps for Junk-Bond Speculation http://t.co/DzTtYnKY If this continues, I suspect it will lead 2 ETF underperformance $$ Sep 17, 2012
Cheaper Student Loans. Who Knew? http://t.co/ZYnRjQDl About 2.6% of all borrowers?are using income-based repayment $$ 15%, 15 years Sep 17, 2012

Rest of the World

China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist http://t.co/At79Hrfn Will take a while reconcile a decade of malinvestment $$ Sep 21, 2012
Japan launches QE8 as 20-year slump drags on http://t.co/J6hwv6rd Poster child 4 the efficacy of unlimited QE 4 economic stimulation $$ 🙁 Sep 20, 2012
In Spain, economic crisis fans Catalan separatism http://t.co/amLe8qwU Good for them & may they create their own currency & not the euro $$ Sep 20, 2012
Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency http://t.co/MwYRtlU3 Wouldn’t u withdraw deposits from Greek & Spanish banks? $$ Sep 20, 2012
Missed Chances Stoke Skepticism Over EU?s Crisis Fight http://t.co/rvBEndvm Works other way: earlier the break-up, smaller the damage $$ Sep 20, 2012
Sword-Bearing Islamist Signals Peril 4 Arab Democracies http://t.co/AXYYmzWn “Islam is a religion of peace” Overheard in a DC bar $$ Sep 20, 2012
EU Track Record Casts Doubt on Crisis Fight as Draghi Rally Ebbs http://t.co/rvBEndvm You can’t solve debt problems with more debt $$ Sep 19, 2012
Europe Takes On Gazprom at Last, Now Must Hang Tough http://t.co/tvFrJZ1k New delivery methods & supplies lessen need 4 Russian natgas $$ Sep 19, 2012
Europe Banks Fail to Cut as Draghi Loans Defer Deleverage http://t.co/fEQdByYH Same thing for the Fed. $$ policy inhibiting delevering Sep 19, 2012
Kaiser’s Postulate: Bringing Free Market Economics to South America http://t.co/61GS08I0 Brings an Austrian perspective 2 S. America $$ Sep 18, 2012
US military suspends combat patrols with Afghan forces http://t.co/BaKxm4Xn In this chess game, there are some pieces that r gray. $$ Sep 18, 2012
A little problem of maturity mismatch http://t.co/cBtSR1pC Many Chinese firms have financed long assets w/short debt. But how big is it? $$ Sep 18, 2012

Companies

The guys at LTCM weren’t that good w/math. Part of being an applied mathematician is knowing limitations of your models http://t.co/ice9Diju Sep 21, 2012
July 2012 severe enforcement actions; Capital One units pick up 3 http://t.co/ahdVPlpZ Interesting improving graph: http://t.co/jqwWxgCR $$ Sep 20, 2012
Microsoft, HP skirted taxes via offshore units: Senate panel http://t.co/tT2F453n What u get 4 creating a complex tax code. FD: + $HPQ $$ Sep 20, 2012
Bored? Consider this Total risk-taking value play http://t.co/Fioj9kEg FD: + $TOT very diversified geographically, seems cheap $$ Sep 20, 2012
Insurers are middlemen. They just pass the costs on. They have no need to do climate research. $$ http://t.co/pekiI2V8 Sep 20, 2012
Dow Corning Offers Workers Cold Showers w/Bugs to Build Sales http://t.co/u9lJIRPI Fascinating tales of voluntary adventures @ Dow Corning Sep 18, 2012

Politics

Welfare Reform as We Knew It http://t.co/E4VuZ1js Inside the Obama work waiver: It’s worse than Romney says. $$ Sep 20, 2012
Tortoises Manhandled for Solar Splits Environmentalists http://t.co/KyaQK3x0 Solar works well in sunny deserts: solar or tortoises $$ Sep 20, 2012
Why the Current Account Deficit Helps Explain the Economics of QE3 http://t.co/QlsAejh1 Explains similarities between CA deficit & QE-inf $$ Sep 19, 2012
Don?t Stick Taxpayers With Underfunded Corporate Pensions http://t.co/xj1VQMEn Against the liberalization of DB plan funding rules Sep 19, 2012
Snip, snip, snip. Cutting up AARP membership cards. The Baby boomers ask for too much through Social Security & Medicare. $$ snip, done Sep 19, 2012
Should the Eligibility Age for Medicare Be Raised? http://t.co/XlrNI3hR Yes, & by more than the suggestions in the article $$ Sep 19, 2012
Election Uncertainty Raises Odds Of Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/jFJ8jSsB Regardless of who wins, there will be gridlock. $$ Sep 18, 2012
Harry Reid Has a Glass-House Quandary on Taxes http://t.co/FbR1nlxl Let Congress begin doing detailed disclosure of their taxes $$ Sep 17, 2012

Economics

Gold shines http://t.co/Mm98E660 & http://t.co/xVg4N2MI $$ Sep 21, 2012
Big Data Upends the Way Workers Are Paid http://t.co/HzfrxhA6 Basic kindness & fairness goes a long way in retaining competent staff $$ Sep 20, 2012
Do New Job Tests Foster Bias? http://t.co/lBSpwygr Maybe, but it does prevent many good people from getting hired. Ppl >> algorithms $$ Sep 20, 2012
Harvard Losing Out to South Dakota in Graduate Pay http://t.co/UQcL5W1T Economics is relative; different things r valuable @ diff times $$ Sep 19, 2012

Finance

Farmer?s Daughter Haugerud Reaps Riches on Drought-Struck Corn http://t.co/CVFuX7kZ Know I’ve read about her b4, can’t remember where $$ Sep 20, 2012
For Superfast Stock Traders, a Way to Jump Ahead in Line http://t.co/hhJwKEdD This is important & may explain HFT & its profitability $$ Sep 19, 2012
Fidelity’s Abby Johnson faces challenges on many fronts http://t.co/5UTmmfbm Fidelity not just mutual funds but retirement plan services $$ Sep 17, 2012
When Playing It Safe Means Taking On More Risk http://t.co/6BtHsksh Safety is a function of price paid vs value & intrinsic solvency $$ Sep 16, 2012

Other

6 Reasons Why Evolution Isn’t A Sure Thing http://t.co/UQVZuzH0 7. Which evolution r u talking about? Many versions, low agreement btw them Sep 20, 2012
Heavy rain in Baltimore now; supporting efforts to ship it to the Midwest $$ Sep 18, 2012

Responses

RE: For areas where there is significant data, they do research. Lots of it.? The models are huge and complex. The e? http://t.co/M7L2ZbC6 Sep 21, 2012
.@OVVOFinancial Part of what I am saying is economists don’t understand macro well. Free lunches rarely emerge; hard2remove accommodation $$ Sep 21, 2012
@felixsalmon I give proportionate to income, so if I were in Romney’s situation, it is likely I would be giving more Sep 21, 2012
. @OVVOFinancial I’m a skeptic. Economists didn’t expect stagflation in ’70s; did not tag the great moderation properly, or call the bust $$ Sep 21, 2012
Why this doesn’t work: too many mortgages are inverted & there is too much supply that will appear as… http://t.co/iGzYEV6c Sep 21, 2012
@fundmyfund If you can infinitely defer income recognition, or reclassify income, the tax rates don’t matter much $$ Sep 21, 2012
“I want to clarify what I wrote on my your last post. It wasn’t one of my finer comments?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/l620hATS $$ Sep 21, 2012
RE: @bloombergview This is another reason why the definition of income matters more than tax rates. Taxes deferred ar? http://t.co/Bkh3LGjT Sep 21, 2012
RE: @bloombergview How do you distinguish between Dworkin who lost to Flynt, Carol Burnett who beat the National Enqu? http://t.co/FPSNGIE5 Sep 21, 2012
@williamalden Interesting curiosity, but they don’t have much musical talent Sep 21, 2012
@ianbremmer Not too surprising, U would probably get the same result in Vallejo, Stockton, Jefferson County, AL, & other bankrupt places $$ Sep 21, 2012
“I hope they kill this one while it is little. Residential Rental Income ABS sounds like a disaster.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/srTbHgyT $$ Sep 20, 2012
@e_d_sanders That wouldn’t surprise me, to me it is funny how we end up overriding law with administrative action Sep 20, 2012
“I’ve owned $CVX for a long time for clients. $BRKB is interesting; I really like what Buffett does?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/l1GZGm3J $$ Sep 20, 2012
. @hassankhan Sometimes there is research, sometimes it is little better than a guess. And yes, new insurance biz has sometimes lost $$ Sep 20, 2012
. @hassankhan New coverages start with a guess. As claims emerge, pricing & terms adjust to reflect claim incidence & severity $$ Sep 20, 2012
@Fullcarry People want to lock in a smaller loss Sep 20, 2012
@dcarpenter14 Good point, thanks for making it Sep 19, 2012
@XQuickFixX investors that buy & hoard 4 DB plans, ETFs, commodity funds, etc, even the SPR, that speculation does affect prices Sep 19, 2012
@XQuickFixX Besides, prices r set at the margin — what it costs to get the next barrel. Last point, if speculators includes the commodity + Sep 19, 2012
@XQuickFixX But the evidence in the article is hearsay. The extraction cost of $11/bbl looks really low. It has 2b higher than that. Sep 19, 2012
@XQuickFixX 2 thoughts: 1) my reform for derivative markets is hedgers must initiate all trades. Speculators can’t trade with each other Sep 19, 2012
I don’t believe the oil market is manipulated. It’s too big;keep the bid price too high, they will sell you a lot of ? http://t.co/oKOTecFE Sep 19, 2012
@izakaminska Thanks, Izabella. My best to all at FT Alphaville. $$ Sep 19, 2012
@izakaminska I admire you all at ft alpha, you write about big things that many of us miss; I would work with u all if u wanted me $$ Sep 19, 2012
RE: Average people can’t invest well & can’t get longevity insurance at a fair price. DB plans r better than DC plans? http://t.co/ClMRmrUH Sep 18, 2012
RE: Sorry, public pensions are not included; their rules are weaker than this. Also, no PBGC for muni DB plans. $$ http://t.co/PHnzUlXi Sep 18, 2012
@moorehn The eyewitness accounts of the life of Jesus would have noted a wife; Peter had 1. http://t.co/TeIiDodQ Definitive scholarly book Sep 18, 2012
“I disagree, mostly. Value is often its own catalyst. People ignore many low P/E stocks just b/c?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/spWdEhSn $$ Sep 18, 2012
@LDrogen low likelihood, high severity Sep 18, 2012
“”How long until a producer comes in yelling, ?wait?wait, he?s just a loud-mouth with a blog?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ww2r59BZ $$ Sep 18, 2012
@rcwhalen We had 3 & adopted 5. Used zone defense metaphor 2 explain it 2 guys. W/a zone u r rules-based; need more rules w/more kids. $$ Sep 18, 2012
@groditi The only thing that gives me pause is that my old friends from my bond manager days r still constructive on HY http://t.co/egOXLBWo Sep 18, 2012
“Exactly. I read the same piece, and for some reason I didn’t comment on their lack of understanding.” http://t.co/W2n3pwcQ $$ Sep 18, 2012
Exactly. Every asset they inflate, inflates liabilities for those who fund them.? Commodities rise due 2 financial re? http://t.co/0HL1L9cq Sep 18, 2012
@TheStalwart Pie charts provide the least information of any type of graph, I think that’s why the chart nerds like them less $$ Sep 18, 2012
@MikeLanter Yes, THE ELEPHANT! Sep 16, 2012
“Well said. My but the Fed has become an elephant in the agency RMBS market” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FWZ5ngNu $$ Sep 16, 2012

Retweets

If we don’t get stagflation RT @OVVOFinancial @Vermeer1097 Martingale works for Fed playing w/o table limits and unlimited balance sheet. $$ Sep 21, 2012
RT @SullyCNBC: Instead of being angry at individuals for paying the least amount in taxes they legally owe..be angry at Congress for our … Sep 21, 2012
Double down, BABY!! $$ RT @Vermeer1097: @AlephBlog Bubbles Bernank simply using a very old betting system: the Martingale. Sep 21, 2012
You can either think binary or not $$ RT @daveinbawlmer: @AlephBlog @ritholtz a sort of binary way of thinking about being binary Sep 21, 2012
There r only 10 types of people in the world, those get binary & the rest RT @ritholtz: Either you believe the world is binary or you don’t Sep 21, 2012
RT @researchpuzzler: RT @DDInvesting: An Open Letter to CFOs Across America http://t.co/78ubGzqL ~ must read, for investors as well as C … Sep 19, 2012
RT @prchovanec: When will Chinese authorities figure out that developing new financing vehicles does not change underlying asset quality? $$ Sep 19, 2012
Bigtime $$ RT @historysquared: Chinese banks are ?the nexus for? all of this credit-driven investment.” ~ Jim Chanos Sep 18, 2012
What reputation? Perpetuating a bad idea $$ RT @credittrader: Tuesday Humor – *JUNCKER SAYS GREECE EURO EXIT WOULD HARM EURO REPUTATION Sep 18, 2012
+1 RT @ReformedBroker: ?When we encounter pain, we are at an important juncture in our decision-making process.? http://t.co/x8hjUYB4 $$ Sep 18, 2012
RT @groditi: @AlephBlog i’d much rather hold some decent stocks w/ good FCF/Earnings yields and an overweight cash position the the same … Sep 18, 2012
Well-stated $$ RT @felixsalmon: #Romneyshambles: the conservative take is no less damning. http://t.co/H6H3etqh Sep 18, 2012
You said it $$ RT @BoydRoddy: You get the feeling that @John_Hempton is having fun with $FMCN a la a Cat and a stalked mouse? Yeah, me too. Sep 18, 2012
You betcha. BTW, @soberlook has posted http://t.co/pfSscLH1 good stuff RT @merrillmatter: not buying any MBS here $$ Sep 16, 2012