Tweets – Page 9 – The Aleph Blog

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 14 September 2012 by David Merkel

Financial Markets

State court ruling deals blow to U.S. bank mortgage system http://t.co/QilYZQJZ Washington State Supreme court allows MERS 2b sued &more $$ Sep 14, 2012
Partial explanation for flash crash and HFT http://t.co/ylpBj6Bm http://t.co/ABsvytw9 AP http://t.co/7xH09jMn http://t.co/hyznU44r $$ Sep 14, 2012
Violation: Prop Feeds #1 and #2 sent data to proprietary customers before NYSE sent data to the public feed. http://t.co/skh2CaUW ouch $$ Sep 14, 2012
Equity Firms Like Bain Are Depicted as Colluding http://t.co/8KMIo1xy This could be significant, but some of the legal issues r squishy $$ Sep 14, 2012
A Conversation with Ray Dalio http://t.co/clEaTy9C Full transcript, which I like, because watching video is slow $$ Sep 14, 2012
Jeff Gundlach’s Eye-Opening Presentation ‘Mirror, Mirror On The Wall’ http://t.co/QE6PHUoP Be prepared for lots of informative charts $$ Sep 13, 2012
Fink Belies Being Boring Telling Customers to Buy Stocks http://t.co/MYdrW95h A feature article on $BLK and Larry Fink; next Tsy Sec? $$ Sep 13, 2012
Oddly, what Dalio is saying here is very close to Harry Browne’s idea of the Permanent Portfolio. $$ http://t.co/C0x37B3Y Sep 13, 2012
Mortgage REITs’ leverage poses significant risks to the overall mortgage market http://t.co/Ifje6AxB Public markets r mismatched/limited $$ Sep 12, 2012
Bill Gross Sees Higher Long-Term Yields Amid Reflation http://t.co/eYPeRZlt If that were true, rates would be high already. $$ #youlose Sep 12, 2012
Is BlackRock Kissing Individual Bonds Goodbye? http://t.co/s2RywmL3 Mmmm…. converting transaction revenues into an annuity… yes… $$ Sep 12, 2012
361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing http://t.co/nd6akDbW Interesting briefing that makes a mostly bullish case $$ Sep 11, 2012
Is Everything We Know About Stock/Bond Allocations Wrong? http://t.co/85D2kUik Questions the wisdom of risk parity for asset allocation $$ Sep 11, 2012
Want to Buy a Private Stock? http://t.co/E3WojVi2 Listen to @jasonzweigwsj Do not buy private equity; you don’t have the expertise. $$ Sep 09, 2012

Federal Reserve

New round of quantitative easing biggest yet? http://t.co/ANA3MX2y Potentially. Problems will come as Fed corners low-rate GSE Resdl MBS $$ Sep 14, 2012
FOMC Central Tendencies: Target Fed Funds Rate at Year-End 2012-5, long-run 0.26 0.38 0.80 1.72 4.07 Chg: -0.04 -0.12 -0.30 NA -0.13 $$ Sep 13, 2012
FOMC Central Tendencies: Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming extends 7.6 months from June to 2.8 years Sep 13, 2012
FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run PCE inf 1.75 1.84 1.82 1.97 2.00 PCE inf 2012-2014 long-run +0.27 +0.08 +0.05 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run Unemp 8.11 7.70 6.98 6.38 5.60 Uemp change 2012-2014 long-run +0.01-0.01-0.30 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run GDP 1.84 2.78 3.4 3.39 2.44 GDP change 2012-2014 long-run -0.29 +0.210 +0.12, 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
Budeeah, budeeah, budeeah, That’s all folks! Sep 13, 2012
Something happened around 2:30, but what? Sep 13, 2012
Press seems feistier than usual at the Bernanke Presser $$ Sep 13, 2012
Wow, a 2% move in gold qualifies as “explodes?” Wow #verbinflation http://t.co/8hodDxcp Sep 13, 2012
Extends low FF to mid-2015, ~9 months Sep 13, 2012
Fed’s web server is paralyzed, overwhelmed Sep 13, 2012
Ding! It’s SHOWTIME, Ben! $$ Sep 13, 2012
Bernanke Proves Like No Other Fed Chairman on Joblessness http://t.co/qHWtJv7W Bernanke imagines that he is fighting recession $$ Sep 12, 2012
Fed Stuck at Zero Into 2015 Seen in Swaps, QE Odds Reach 99% http://t.co/IM6HBDQR Given that fixed income mkts anticipate: no QE effect $$ Sep 10, 2012
An idea better kept in reserve http://t.co/ujKFy1Vc When u r playing around near the zero bound, all sorts crazy things could happen $$ Sep 10, 2012

US Politics and Economics

US Consumer Price Index Increases by Most Since 2009 http://t.co/6u2Di5r4 Given the unlimited QE, hard to see why prices should be weak $$ Sep 14, 2012
Airbrushed History and Dusted-Off Promises http://t.co/gMetXbgi Obama promised much more in 2008-9 than he is owning up to now. $$ Sep 13, 2012
Household Income Sinks to ’95 Level http://t.co/LA6pnEC3 R U better off than 4 years ago? Mean, yes. Median, no. $$ Sep 13, 2012
In Chicago, the Teachers’ Last Stand http://t.co/3uAcUJZT Bad news for the teachers, given underfunded DB plan, $$ struggles will worsen Sep 13, 2012
This is Illinois after all…corruption & bad mgmt r normal. Teachers fear 4 their unfunded pensions & high $$ jobs. http://t.co/KVWIURuV Sep 13, 2012
About Those Policies That Got Us Into This Mess http://t.co/cUDmsUJy Interesting: many of the critical laws were signed by Democrats $$ Sep 13, 2012
White House pushes back on claims from Woodward book http://t.co/IPpUUGXg The fiscal crisis was Obama’s fault as well as Congress’ fault $$ Sep 12, 2012
Strike Puts Spotlight on Teacher Evaluation, Pay http://t.co/MJ0A4pCt Break the union and hire non-union teachers who r motivated $$ Sep 12, 2012
Stagnant Incomes Signal Restraint in Spending by U.S. Consumers http://t.co/uiBxYBzM Y b aggressive spending when policy is uncertain $$ Sep 10, 2012
Why Health Care Matters and the Current Debt Does Not http://t.co/yw4MLv6o Because the healthcare unfunded liabilities r a LOT BIGGER $$ Sep 10, 2012

Other

#FF @TALENTEDBLONDE @prieur @rcwhalen @AmyResnick @AnnieLowrey @brucekrasting @derekhernquist @fundmyfund @ftalpha @BloombergNews $$ Sep 14, 2012
Children of Single Parents Much More Likely in Poverty http://t.co/PbaJuoGU “Dog Bites Man” Two parents r normally stronger than one $$ Sep 13, 2012
The Manhattan Project to End Fad Diets http://t.co/NvkkihYt Sounds promising, but there is 2 much $$ & wishful thinking w/fad diets Sep 13, 2012
Michael Pettis publishes! It’s a great night! $$ Sep 13, 2012
Charities Deceive Donors Unaware Money Goes to a Telemarketer http://t.co/vKXjfU7K Don’t ever give money to a charity over the phone $$ Sep 12, 2012
Medics Being All They Can Be Find Civilian Job Barriers http://t.co/p7gZbgNT Vets have to have a way to transist to civilian work $$ Sep 12, 2012
Is College a Lousy Investment? http://t.co/GoKcgrLB It depends. If u r in the top 20%, no. If u r in next 20%, maybe. Otherwise, yes $$ Sep 12, 2012
13 Tools To Tame Social Media Overload http://t.co/UYXZUMAt A variety of programs that can stiffen your resolve to avoid wasting time $$ Sep 11, 2012
Why the New Marketing-Driven Corporate Research Lab Needs the CIO http://t.co/d8wWCDJc Research, Development & Marketing belong together Sep 10, 2012
Letting Babies Cry a Bit Is OK http://t.co/UmqwwLbl Babies stop crying (leave aside pain/sickness) when crying does not get rewarded $$ Sep 10, 2012

Energy

Wind is intermittent, advances in batteries that can store energy are also needed. http://t.co/eBsqqW5y Sep 13, 2012
Asian Water Scarcity Risked as Coal-Fired Power Embraced http://t.co/C4QQXAQm The need for water is forcing tough choices in India $$ Sep 11, 2012
Gamechanging Natural Gas Tech Gets Green Light http://t.co/tiI2hiu2 Methane hydrates r recoverable; triples existing oil & NG reserves $$ Sep 10, 2012
Saudi Arabia Concerned About Rising Crude Prices http://t.co/f3eUmId0 High quality problem, but how much can the Saudis a4d 2cut back $$ Sep 10, 2012

Rest of the World

Swiss Farmers Clash With Traders as Bubble Builds in Town of Zug http://t.co/EjPUX0Pa Another report from the Bubble caused by the SNB $$ Sep 13, 2012
Skip College Is Top Advice for World-Beating Koreans http://t.co/YQ9DKAZO Any strategy to improve your lot can be overused, even college $$ Sep 12, 2012
Less-Rosy Reality http://t.co/HfidgmGM This current round of euro-optimism will wear badly with time. Cash flows will dictate reality $$ Sep 11, 2012
Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? http://t.co/PLB8ER7i How technology is killing the Asian growth miracle http://t.co/ue15U4sd $$ Sep 10, 2012
Hollande Challenges Unions on Labor Law as Stagnation Sets In http://t.co/xRBJdqdt Pretty tough to start fighting w/base w/low poll #s $$ Sep 10, 2012
Why Merkel Wants To Keep Greece in Euro Zone http://t.co/b3cTiHfq It is cheaper in the short run than bailing out the banks $$ Sep 10, 2012

Companies

Why Ruane Cunniff & Weitz Funds Like Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) http://t.co/QBLd8SGV Combination of Pharma co, & asset-stripper $$ Sep 14, 2012
Andrew Ross Sorkin?s Bad Math on AIG http://t.co/pHdsYWRV Notes tax favors $AIG received, could have mentioned forgiven bailout terms $$ Sep 13, 2012
Legg Mason CEO to Leave Amid Pressure http://t.co/PB4ZxKCj $LM was better in the past, when they did not rely on fund mgmt as much $$ Sep 12, 2012
David Merkel: Why You Will Never Be Buffett http://t.co/iPfn9Gxo @reformedbroker features two of my articles on Buffett. Thanks, Josh $$ Sep 12, 2012
Ship Magnate Uses Gut in $11 Billion Bet Worst Since ?70s Ending http://t.co/f5BGyDoZ Long article on the gamblin’ head of $FRO & $SDRL $$ Sep 10, 2012

On Bailouts

Two notes on the bailouts: first, those saying the US Govt made $$ on the bailouts are not counting in Fannie & Freddie Sep 11, 2012
Second: they aren’t counting the cost of capital: had they invested $$ at the same time in a 50/50 mix stocks/bonds would’ve made much more Sep 11, 2012
So, aside from encouraging future moral hazard, the bailouts lost $$. Strictly on a moral basis, the govt should not play favorites. Sep 11, 2012

China

The Communist Party?s Big Problem? It?s Not Bo Xilai http://t.co/BXRshBNQ Publication of a long, critical commentary of CCP direction $$ Sep 13, 2012
Shadow Bankers Vanishing Leave China Victims Seeing Scams http://t.co/4RmbjG8d When bankers flee, go B/K, commit suicide: not good sign $$ Sep 13, 2012
China’s Revolution Risk http://t.co/lzs5k5ll One has to remember that not all risks are simple and economically rational. $$ Sep 12, 2012

Replies

@BarbarianCap @derekhernquist Thanks much. Don’t know what to say. 🙂 $$ Sep 15, 2012
@derekhernquist You’re welcome, Derek. I appreciate following you, & you following me. Why did I start the blog? To give something back $$ Sep 15, 2012
@moorehn Yeah, I know. I just Googled a few phrases from your show to see what would come up. Sorry that that did. Sep 15, 2012
@moorehn Rush Limbaugh also used “It’s like a sugar high.” 4 QE yesterday on his radio show http://t.co/BhS48hxN No, I don’t listen 2 him $$ Sep 15, 2012
@ritholtz Yes. First time but there are other cases in the works $$ Sep 14, 2012
@LaMonicaBuzz Definitely the latter. Full disclosure: long $SPLS $$ Sep 13, 2012
@JamesGRickards Confidence comes from a strong balance sheet & sustainable economic policies Sep 13, 2012
@XQuickFixX That figure is for average over a lifetime. Sep 13, 2012
@XQuickFixX “average BA college degree makes ($52,200)” Link? Sounds too high Sep 13, 2012
@wsquared58 Good for you Sep 13, 2012
@TheStalwart Cool, well, we will watch and see to the EOD Sep 13, 2012
@TheStalwart Are you forecasting the immediate move, say, 15 minutes, or to the end of the day? Sep 13, 2012
. @Nonrelatedsense Browne’s system is simple, like a VW bug. Bridgewater is like a Maserati in comparison. Both are elegant AA ideas $$ Sep 13, 2012
@waughkd I have been to SD once in my life; my brother lived on an Indian reservation there 4 years. The physics of wind power is tough $$ Sep 13, 2012
@XQuickFixX It used to be that that earned below median incomes; now they earn above median; it’s the pensions that r really high Sep 13, 2012
@munilass Thanks for tweeting that; I have had a lifelong interest in prime numbers, though the math here is beyond me. Sep 13, 2012
@GaelicTorus I’ve debated that; I sometimes do negative book reviews. More often it doesn’t get a review. Sep 13, 2012
@GaelicTorus Book isn’t out yet, not seeking a copy. Sometimes I get books I did not request, e.g., Hank Paulson’s book & didn’t review $$ Sep 13, 2012
@GaelicTorus former employee of $GS who left, purportedly because his ideals were shattered as $GS changed 2b more mercenary $$ Sep 13, 2012
@JacobWolinsky thanks 4 that data point. traded away most of my commodity stocks a while ago. Did not want to be a hog. $$ Sep 13, 2012
@JacobWolinsky If China’s growth materially reduces, many commodities will have a hard time. Sep 13, 2012
@groditi I could convert it to a PDF and send it to you just e-mail me at david.merkel@gmail.com Sep 13, 2012
Commented on StockTwits: I never use stops. Never. I just buy, hold, and sell after a few years. I you choose well,… http://t.co/HXgjGxic Sep 12, 2012
@TheStalwart Car chases go on a lot longer because other cars pull over for the police $$ Sep 12, 2012
@MarkDampier I’m skeptical too… $BLK is big enough to be able to get good executions for clients. They shouldn’t have to use ETFs $$ Sep 12, 2012
@BradErvin1 You can’t do that. The only thing you can rely on is that glutted sectors will always return less than non-glutted sectors. $$ Sep 12, 2012
.@BradErvin1 The crisis came from capital misallocation. The bailouts tossed more capital into sectors that were glutted already. Not C-P $$ Sep 11, 2012
@Oval54 comes back w/interest to special interests, not to the average person Sep 11, 2012
@EddyElfenbein Can’t be any other way. My first statistics professor told us on on day 1: “Statistics is a meeean profession.” $$ #malehumor Sep 11, 2012
@BoydRoddy @finemrespice Funny thing is that Federal Reserve did not talk publicly about the life cos, but sys risk during $AIG crisis $$ Sep 11, 2012
@finemrespice @BoydRoddy Agreed, it wasn’t the sole reason. Systemic effects of AIGFP, and do you hae a link on the FRC Basel issue? Sep 11, 2012
@finemrespice @BoydRoddy AIG’s Domestic Life companies lost all of their surplus when the AAA subprime RMBS underlying sec lending failed $$ Sep 11, 2012
@cabaum1 Quirk of Twitter, no #FM, #FT, #FW, #FTh, #FSa, or #FSu, only #FF for “Follow Friday,” & people typically only do #FF on Friday Sep 10, 2012

Retweets

US Govt outsources a lot RT @paulvieira:Joe Biden Calls Outsourcing “Not Bad If You’re Running A Company” http://t.co/vB42Feia via @buzzfeed Sep 14, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Bernanke should do the right thing: admit that he is wrong, and resign. http://t.co/1R5mxQw9 Sep 13, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Doing the same thing again and again, and expecting a different result.? You back an insane moneta? http://t.co/73aZFlFI Sep 13, 2012
I’m in the stagflation camp too $$ RT @BubblesandBusts: @alephblog I’ll take the under on GDP and over on unemployment and inflation Sep 13, 2012
RT @KeithMcCullough: Maybe one of the saddest days in American economic history; history wont forget this Sep 13, 2012
RT @credittrader: THIS!! RT @PragCapitalist: Bernanke basically just described the theory that asset bubbles are good for the economy…. $$ Sep 13, 2012
I tend to agree $$ RT @Nonrelatedsense:I think any allocation model faces a challenge today. Those two face more than they have in the past. Sep 13, 2012
Creation of credit has never brought prosperity. U r deluded $$ RT @BloombergView: Bernanke, You have no excuse | http://t.co/KwoPTjCJ Sep 13, 2012
As my Dad would say, for “socks & underwear” too $$ RT @pdacosta: Fed Chairman Bernanke spotted at Wal-Mart. Shopping for kitchen sink. Sep 13, 2012
Best since Paulson, including Hank $$ RT @pegobry: Geithner: best Treasury Sec in decades? Sep 12, 2012
RT @wesbury: It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the … Sep 12, 2012
Performance art, yes $$ RT @TheStalwart: I think I might like to attend this conference, merely as performance art. http://t.co/PO6fzBp6 Sep 11, 2012
RT @dwotapka: RT @AskMiles: My mother used to say I’d get bored with pizza if I had it every day. My mother was wrong. Sep 11, 2012
At least those that cite the labor force participation rate $$ RT @TheStalwart: U-6ers are the truthers of the economics profession. Sep 11, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Same is true of Obama.? We face gridlock regardless of who gets elected. http://t.co/jGXTXoLI Sep 11, 2012
RT @annasacca: “Anyone wanting to learn about private equity would benefit from The New Tycoons by @jasonkellynews” http://t.co/xaF7HhLf $$ Sep 11, 2012
RT @BoydRoddy: Sole reason for AIG rescue: Sec.Lending undisclosed scheme under Neuger imperiled largest Life co’s in the world. No Life … Sep 11, 2012
As a happy user for around 2 years, I salute you; to my readers, look into getting free Opendns. $$ RT @opendns: Thanks for the RT! Sep 10, 2012
RT @opendns: We’re hearing reports that OpenDNS #SmartCache is helping OpenDNS users get to sites otherwise down during @godaddy #outage … Sep 10, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 8 September 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

ECB Collateral Moves Reopen ?Soup Kitchen? for Struggling Banks http://t.co/CMMkeby9 Euros available in exchange 4 marginal collateral $$ Sep 07, 2012
Jobless Greeks Resolved to Work Clean Toilets in Sweden http://t.co/EqGuottV Really a sad tale; another way of saying EZone has failed $$ Sep 07, 2012
Euro: Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck http://t.co/R3y7uG5J Axel Merk argues that current Eurozone troubles will create US Europe $$ Sep 07, 2012
Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying http://t.co/Cyn0tu9O The conditionality will eventually render it ineffective $$ Sep 06, 2012
Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash and Get Out of Spain http://t.co/EMT40EQK When times get tough, people leave. More in Spain $$ Sep 07, 2012
Perhaps the Irish economy is rebounding.? Maybe the banks are next? $$ http://t.co/fN5Cyfj4 Sep 05, 2012
Two Tears for Two-Tiers http://t.co/YuLV0vnN Will Mario Draghi really create an expensive market for <3yr Spanish & Italian debt? $$ Sep 05, 2012
ECB bond-buying would not breach rules-Draghi http://t.co/9iaSdGnn Of course not pooky. Buying the short debt will draw u2 long debt l8r $$ Sep 04, 2012

Politics

California Treasurer Backs Law to Ban Costly Long-Term Bo [sic] http://t.co/P5U2f7DC Capital Appreciation Bonds are expensive 2 issuers $$ Sep 07, 2012
We’re Not Out Of Money http://t.co/FKDSbBAM There may not be an economic limit on printing $$ but a political limit when inflation arrives Sep 05, 2012
Top Bank Lawyer?s EMails Show Washington?s Inside Game http://t.co/4sSYxs4n Former SEC Commissioner Annette Nazareth uses her influence $$ Sep 05, 2012
Suits Challenge Classrooms That Segregate Boys, Girls http://t.co/zHiCmchK My brother ran a school for boys; much better than co-ed $$ Sep 05, 2012
Fed’s unemployment target is unrealistic http://t.co/1edPuBTC Global labor competition will keep unemployment high, until exports get big $$ Sep 05, 2012
The Clinton Administration did not offer as much public debt, Social Security was running its largest… http://t.co/mySuAvk1 Sep 05, 2012
As I said with the Republican Convention, I am very glad that I don’t own a TV. I would rather consider the merits than emotional appeals $$ Sep 05, 2012
They grow so fast, treasure them while you can $$ RT @TheStalwart: The Obama daughters have aged a lot. http://t.co/2IguOJdj Sep 05, 2012
A radical tax plan the left and right can agree on http://t.co/84PA1xpp Cut corporate tax rates & eliminate all special preferences $$ Sep 04, 2012
If You Think Obama?s First Term Was Bad, Imagine a Second http://t.co/4iFeFAfc Same applies to Romney; we will have gridlock either way $$ Sep 04, 2012
Why Bernanke has become irrelevant http://t.co/dN9b6kVP Inflating financial assets also inflates financial liabilities &so it does little $$ Sep 04, 2012
Putin to Raise Government Retirement Age to 70 http://t.co/TtluvkN0 We should also. Y should young ppl subsidize oldsters who could work Sep 04, 2012
The Democrats? Version of Mediscare http://t.co/rRUwEf7s Agreement btw Reps & Dems: cut medicare. The Q is how to do it? $$ Sep 04, 2012
Long term real rates in the US hit record lows http://t.co/WQns2veU Can you say “financial Repression,” boys & girls? I thought you could $$ Sep 04, 2012
Gloria Romero: Trials of a Democratic Reformer http://t.co/Hblx3Plk Unions (SEIU, CTA, the CA school employees) dominate $$ in Sacto $$ Sep 01, 2012
California Lawmakers Send Public-Pension Cutback to Brown http://t.co/pn3uXnjj First, prospective change, next retrospective on actives $$ Sep 01, 2012
The duopoly doesn’t like interlopers playing on their turf $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Why Is Gary Johnson Being Ignored? http://t.co/qgXnrC49 Sep 01, 2012

The Markets

Asset Allocation & Portfolio Management: Is the Industry Shifting to a New Paradigm? http://t.co/u69lGilE 2 complex; parameters unstable $$ Sep 08, 2012
Student Loans: Debt for Life http://t.co/sd4aNaDo With student loans not dischargable in bankruptcy many students end up debt-slaves $$ Sep 07, 2012
Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds for Second Month in August http://t.co/3Ydp0q3t Anticipated inflation (via TIPS) rising over last 2 months $$ Sep 03, 2012
Should You Wade In With a Windfall? http://t.co/lprP4FbX A perpetual debate; best to decide on your asset allocation and invest $$ Sep 03, 2012
Are You Making Too Much Money? http://t.co/5uoVQMTF Cramer points out that when a strategy is working too well -> greater prob of blowup $$ Sep 01, 2012

Lenders, Insurers, and Housing

Hedge funds face autumn uncertainty http://t.co/lbTBS8Rx Hard not to be uncertain when deficits are high, monetary policy loose, & EZone $$ Sep 05, 2012
With Lax Regulation, a Risky Industry Flourishes Offshore http://t.co/C3RUhCQD Bermuda reinsurers r better managed than largest US banks $$ Sep 05, 2012
Assessing Fannie’s Past and Future http://t.co/v5c8Y2QS Sadly, ending the role of the US Govt in lending $$ is not a listed option. Sep 04, 2012
Home Prices Are Not Rebounding as Fast as You Think http://t.co/qrYYciDr Market will have to digest a lot of dark supply, post-bottom $$ Sep 04, 2012
Breaking Up Banks Is Hard With Traders Hooked on Deposits http://t.co/CtcyqaiH WIll b made up reducing diseconomies of scale $$ #breakthem Sep 04, 2012
Bad headline: Nine Insurers Boast Gains On Facebook Positions http://t.co/8rsBZfe1 Read the story: most insurers owning $FB lost $$ Sep 04, 2012
Big Banks Are Hazardous to U.S. Financial Health http://t.co/8CxiiLqb Implicit promise of US rescue allows large banks to finance cheap $$ Sep 03, 2012
Fighting financial complexity with simple rules? http://t.co/nU1ypbgK Limit leverage, interconnectedness, analyze risk-based liquidity $$ Sep 03, 2012
Ranking the Largest U.S. Banks: M&T No. 17 With a Bullet http://t.co/dBLM8EBY Look at how large the top 4 r relative to everyone else $$ Sep 03, 2012
Index points to new dawn for US housing http://t.co/c04HLluw There is a lot of dark supply to clear, but bottom has passed on low end $$ Sep 03, 2012
Melbourne Hasn?t Seen Worst of Housing Drop as Glut Builds http://t.co/wJRlFbeR I’m sure glut is temporary, “Contained” & banks r fine 😉 Sep 01, 2012

Energy

Shale Boom Cuts Gulf Oil Premium to 24-Year Low http://t.co/O738xxOI Whouda thunk oil production would increase in the US? $$ Sep 07, 2012
“Green energy ‘is a big area of unfulfilled promise,'” aka “crazy inefficient dreaming.” Send them to study physics $$ http://t.co/VAsgEdVz Sep 04, 2012
RE: Natural gas prices have fallen; that is most of the new energy produced. Little oil so gasoline prices stay high. http://t.co/XCZBTmSR Sep 03, 2012

Other

Stanford researchers’ cooling glove ‘better than steroids’ & helps solve physiological mystery, too http://t.co/D5CqAU9x Muscles overheat $$ Sep 07, 2012
FBI vs. Google: The Legal Fight to Unlock Phones http://t.co/i2VbdISV Interesting that $GOOG resists requests 4 smartphone passwords $$ Sep 07, 2012
Malware attacks on the rise http://t.co/fzKcSqe8 Now coming to a handheld device near you. Try to decide on a ransom strategy early $$ Sep 04, 2012
Awkward Belly Dance for Groupon http://t.co/sCxGrpKo As if $GRPN doesn’t have enough troubles, two large founders back a competitor $$ Sep 04, 2012
China, Germany plan to settle more trade in yuan, euros http://t.co/DFtNGvxi Settling $$ doesn’t matter, where proceeds r invested matters Sep 03, 2012
The Federal Reserve: From Central Bank to Central Planner http://t.co/YQxbQLq2 The more tasks we give to the Fed, the worse they do $$ Sep 03, 2012
You Can’t Trust Airport Security http://t.co/TWGMUwP1 Security systems must balance risks of false positives vs missing positives $$ Sep 03, 2012

BloombergView Hypocrisy

You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed? http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 The Fed could b genuinely transparent & the economy prosperous $$ Sep 05, 2012
Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU The 2r not related. Proceeds of debt do not lead2 hiring necessarily Sep 05, 2012
@bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU $$ Sep 05, 2012
@bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: “You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed?” http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 Sep 05, 2012

Retirement

Big Firms a Drag on Pension Funds http://t.co/Q1hchNbH Returns at larger private equity funds have lagged their smaller brethren $$ Sep 07, 2012
Retirement security is a big problem — especially for the young http://t.co/DxTcvg4O The developed world lives in a fantasy re: retirement Sep 05, 2012
San Jose Cops Rush Disability Retirement Bids as Rules Tighten http://t.co/jSKWSiaQ & I’ll bet the actuary never priced 100% disability $$ Sep 05, 2012

Follow

#FF @cabaum1 @HousingWire @journalistjosh @LizRappaport @CardiffGarcia @simonconstable @agnestcrane @WSJTheSource @maoxian @jsphctrl $$ Sep 07, 2012
#FF @footnoted @LSPollack @MattGoldstein26 @munilass @williamalden @JeffreyMatthews @PragCapitalist @neilbarofsky @MKTWBurton @petereavis $$ Sep 07, 2012
@lv_1 I’m doing 1 of these per day listing my favorite tweeps, some of which are lesser known; last group is mostly economics Sep 06, 2012
It’s not Friday, but please follow: @GonzaloLiraSPG @rajivatbarnard @John_Hempton @SoberLook @groditi @unstructuredfin @historysquared $$ Sep 06, 2012
It’s not Friday but please follow: @finemrespice @prchovanec @vshih2 @BoydRoddy @dpinsen @niubi @manualofideas @wesbury @merrillmatter $$ Sep 03, 2012

Retweets

A permanent problem in a dynamic language $$ RT @BloombergView: These are sad times for grammatical purists | http://t.co/Se0XfLCD Sep 07, 2012
RT @DennisDMZ: Obama thanked Biden for being “the best VP I could have hoped for.” Proof that America really has become the land of dimi … Sep 07, 2012
Their headlines mislead more than most RT @LaurenLaCapra: This Bloomberg headline is not only weird, but questionable. http://t.co/0CKK9ATE Sep 05, 2012
Worth a read $$ RT @TheStalwart: This strikes me as an interesting contribution to the profit margins debate. http://t.co/Bt5S9ZrF Sep 05, 2012
RT @PlanMaestro: Very good takedown of Taibbi’s Bain Capital piece. There is a story in there just not this one http://t.co/he0VaYo4 @da … Sep 05, 2012
Oops $$ RT @SecurityTube: [News] BitCoin Exchange Loses $250,0000 [sic] After Unencrypted Keys Stolen http://t.co/Yt2l7bp3 Sep 05, 2012
How many divisions does Draghi have? MT @TheStalwart: The Most Powerful Man In The World Is Going To Speak Tomorrow. So Is Barack Obama $$ Sep 05, 2012
Also worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: One of my favorite tables: Shadow Banking Depositors. The plumbing. http://t.co/i6UVAJan Sep 05, 2012
Worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: Another: Credit-Maturity Transformation Spectrum http://t.co/F98xEbgP Sep 05, 2012
RT @NickTimiraos: CoreLogic index shows that home prices are now 1.3% above Jan 2009 level. Down 0.7% from June 2010 (tax credit induced … Sep 04, 2012
RT @TheStalwart: RT @conorsen: @TheStalwart @diana_olick You should probably have

an auto-RT app for Diana’s stuff. Sep 04, 2012

RT @ReformedBroker: As the politicians descend on Charlotte, Carolinians come face to face with more pork than they’ve ever pulled. #DNC2012 Sep 04, 2012
Good one, made me smile. $$ RT @pdacosta: This euro crisis thing is really Draghing out. Sep 03, 2012
My but Congress was farsighted to recognize a banking benchmark & celebrate! $$ RT @ReformedBroker: HAPPY LIBOR DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sep 03, 2012
RT @mbusigin: You know what’s going to happen? People going to pile into Risk Parity strategies just in time for yield volatility modera … Sep 01, 2012
RT @simonconstable: ?@Mctaguej: Connaughton is a loyal Democrat–but he pulls no punches in his expose of Obama’s failure to pursue Wall … Sep 01, 2012
RT @Convertbond: Thought we had an aging population Ben Bernanke? How many jobs have been lost because 150 mln baby boomers are earning … Sep 01, 2012

Comments

@BradErvin1 Fair point; we have skills mismatch here as well, & income differences among regions; not as pronounced though, adjusts better Sep 08, 2012
@crampell My son thanks you for that article. He runs and the trainers ice him down after practice; going to show it to his coach Sep 07, 2012
@ToshibaEric Thanks 4 replying. Talked to 10 people @ Toshiba before I got someone to send me a free mailing box for repairs ~ 2 hours $$ Sep 07, 2012
@toshiba also aggravating sitting on hold, getting dropped three times, and representatives hiding behind the legalese Sep 07, 2012
@toshiba Really aggravating dealing with your phone support for a new computer that fails on day one, and you do not offer replacement $$ Sep 07, 2012
‘ @Fullcarry It’s kind of like the “pop” that happens when a distressed credit does an equity offering in order to survive. $$ Sep 07, 2012
@niubi Perhaps because that would be blocked. China does not want people 2know how much diverse information 2which they do not have access Sep 07, 2012
@credittrader The cash he receives will be used to collateralize an account invested in stock index futures $$ 😉 #nevercashonsidelines Sep 05, 2012
@moorehn Could we pass a law that all politicians have to write their own speeches, so that they say is more likely what they really think? Sep 05, 2012
@_TPR Okay, so I have missed something. I trust Bermuda; I do not trust Ireland as a regulator. Who has moved? $$ Sep 05, 2012
@finemrespice Some technological breakthroughs e.g. http://t.co/F4jeyerr, but no 1 mentions costs. Technical efficiency <> Econ progress $$ Sep 04, 2012
I just left a comment in “How Pimco?s Gross beats the average bond fund – Mutual Understanding – MarketWatch” http://t.co/Nfq2s7Un Sep 04, 2012
We need a new misery index that includes the future pain of present borrowing. At least Carter kept… http://t.co/honmBXQ5 Sep 04, 2012
2, 4, and 6 are not myths. The others are. There are limits to what the government can do. They must tax or… http://t.co/JPa4IGqW Sep 04, 2012
Alas, modern worship, odious to God. Bring back a cappella singing of Psalms, like the ancient church.? Also, giving ? http://t.co/OBAwBJnx Sep 04, 2012
It is rational for lower-level German politicians to say Greece must leave the Euro. It is what an average German be? http://t.co/6UUYd6e9 Sep 04, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 25 August 2012 by David Merkel

Politics

Bernanke Letter Defends Fed Actions http://t.co/COYtCtzg Hope the election brings enough change that we end up w/a fresh Fed Chairman $$ Aug 25, 2012
Private equity tax questions for Mitt Romney http://t.co/hXaAu0sR 1) Carried interest 2) Corporate interest deductions 3)Mgmt fee waivers $$ Aug 24, 2012
Sorry, Henry Blodget, You’re Wrong About Election 2012 http://t.co/5DghXuzI Religious Conservatives r viewed as suckers 2 support the GOP $$ Aug 24, 2012
Obama Supporter Suggests Anti-Mormon Whisper Campaign http://t.co/ism2YbbR Too obvious. Democrats pay Evangelicals to describe Mormonism $$ Aug 24, 2012
The Treasury?s Oversimplified View of Its Mortgage Relief Effort http://t.co/cwm1rrX8 The program did wonderful things… for the banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
Top six myths about Medicare http://t.co/qKYGtsLT Mostly correct but #3 brings lower quality & #6 is wrong, see: http://t.co/WvPr4giZ $$ Aug 23, 2012
White House Worked With Buyout Firm to Save Plant http://t.co/KPKHvZC5 Government help to get deals done begets more of the same $$ Aug 22, 2012
Consider keeping Bernanke, top Romney adviser says http://t.co/3Kp575gA This is rhetoric, if Romney is elected, Hubbard will chair Fed $$ Aug 22, 2012
Is BUBB (breaking up the big banks) now a ?conservative imperative? ? http://t.co/exRI726x I like $BAC so much; there should b 50 of them $$ Aug 21, 2012
Why Democrats think taxes will need to rise by more than 50% http://t.co/VUlfCM6K Entitlements will drive change in America but what change? Aug 21, 2012
How the tea party beat Occupy Wall Street http://t.co/SAUzzNog No contest. The t-party organized politically, & #OWS didn’t $$ Aug 21, 2012
Lanai owner Larry Ellison used tax loopholes for payouts http://t.co/la7HJMh6 The problem isn’t Larry, it’s the politicians’ bad tax code $$ Aug 21, 2012
The Real Conservative Opportunity This November http://t.co/m5nXtCUH Urges Republicans 2 champion banking reform. $$ #nixonwent2china Aug 20, 2012
Effective protest requires wide organization and general respect for the property rights of others, which these three women did not have $$ Aug 20, 2012
Fannie and Freddie: The Walking Dead http://t.co/u0Y4CgAt Fannie & Freddie may be dead, but the US Govt’s role in housing is not dead $$ Aug 19, 2012

Companies

There?s Warren Buffett ? and then there?s the rest of us http://t.co/rgMH0kjX The new paper on Buffett’s investing has gotten attention $$ Aug 24, 2012
Take that Square! eBay still a leader in mobile payments http://t.co/CxHkNQkG Am I wrong, or is most of the value of $EBAY in Paypal? $$ Aug 23, 2012
Yellow Pages’ Last Lifeline: Clinging to Each Other http://t.co/X347LfLD $DEXO $SPMD hit sell button, internet destroys yellow pages $$ Aug 22, 2012
The Beginning of the End of Print: The Lessons of an Amazingly Prescient 1992 WaPo Memo http://t.co/hVa62p0A No one listened 2 Cassandra $$ Aug 22, 2012
Last tweet FD: long $PSX . Frankly I’m surprised that an oil refiner, transporter, marketer would help come up w/an advance on solar $$ Aug 22, 2012
Phillips 66, South China U of Technology, & Solarmer Energy Set a World Record in Solar Power Conversion Efficiency http://t.co/95ND020R $$ Aug 22, 2012
Zynga Spurning Sale Strands Owners @ Worst Web Value http://t.co/zrKw0fjv Remember u r a outside minority investor. Choose mgmts w/care $$ Aug 22, 2012

http://t.co/xW9zcuWY $AMZN does amazing things as nonprofit $$ Aug 21, 2012

Monsanto Genetic ?X-Ray Glasses? Speed Tastier Tomatoes http://t.co/AJQZDJY9 Interesting comment thread, no one defending $MON $$ Aug 21, 2012
Facebook Shares: Still Too Pricey http://t.co/z38X4OsZ The lack of a reliable revenue model makes $FB a buy at prices ~$9-15 $$ Aug 21, 2012
Barnes & Noble Falls After Second Straight Nook Sales Drop http://t.co/nWNxr3Pw $BKS losing to $AMZN . Slow-motion train wreck $$ Aug 21, 2012
Up Against Retail Giant Amazon, BufferBox Aims to Jump-Start Parcel Delivery http://t.co/MhW35CeB Any of these should team up w/USPS $$ Aug 21, 2012
Amazon Wins Race to the Bottom With Radical Pricing on Long-Term Data Storage
Facebook Investors Brace for More Shares Coming to Market http://t.co/GE7usIDt Test of how much insiders truly believe in Facebook $FB $$ Aug 20, 2012
Aetna to Acquire Coventry Health Care http://t.co/sFRdRDv3 The People’s Republic of Maryland loses another large company $$ #BDK #USFG Aug 20, 2012
Stocks: The ‘Lockup’ Effect http://t.co/SG5sZIXL A lesson learned during the dot-com bubble is forgotten & must b re-learned. $$ #lockup Aug 18, 2012

Financial Markets

Stock Market Indicators http://t.co/sf0D3BDY Interesting take from the normally bullish Ed Yardeni $$ Aug 23, 2012
Hedge funds are betting on disaster http://t.co/dDtO6Cd3 Maybe some hedge funds r putting on “big shorts” through CDS, but most avoid vol $$ Aug 23, 2012
‘Insider Trucking’ Drives Strategy at J.P. Morgan Fund http://t.co/JZyRVZ5P This brings “bottoms up” analysis to a much lower bottom $$ Aug 23, 2012
The bond bubble still has room to grow http://t.co/DNM9teW1 High yield bond defaults typically peak 2-3 years after issuance peaks $$ Aug 22, 2012
FDIC files lawsuit tied to failed bank RMBS investments http://t.co/63GYJ7Zn I know many investors that did due diligence & avoided the prob Aug 22, 2012
The Profession’s Faulty Assumptions: A Top Ten List http://t.co/lAeCIRzq A worthy article displaying common errors for financial planners $$ Aug 22, 2012
Wrong: Why hedge funds may not be right for you http://t.co/SdPmZeRN Only global macro benefits from volatility, other HFs like calm $$ Aug 21, 2012
Is Your Credit-Card Company Secretly Screwing You Over? http://t.co/7ptHex0g Excellent advice from @eddyelfenbein . Follow it & prosper $$ Aug 21, 2012
Goodbye, Growth. Hello, Dividends. http://t.co/AO2STJhx Companies pay divs get more efficient w/capital. Doesn’t slow growth much $$ Aug 20, 2012
When Wall Street Watchdogs Hunt Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/YyY6UREt Really a sad article. Try to do the right thing & many fight u $$ Aug 20, 2012
A Flock of Black Swans http://t.co/ClDRJYho Study history & other cultures &u may find possible some things considered impossible by many $$ Aug 20, 2012
Russell To Close All But One Of Its ETFs http://t.co/wjKsHrEp A trend that I think will come to most marginal ETF providers $$ Aug 20, 2012
Calpers Defends Pension Benefits While Risking Losses http://t.co/1nnyYD7t CALPERS relishes its importance, but not its performance $$ Aug 20, 2012
Five Myths about Glass-Steagall http://t.co/hgzzPkgM What’s the other side of the argument here? The Fed was hollowing out G-S b4 GLB $$ Aug 20, 2012
Revisiting Stocks For The Long Run http://t.co/b1Dz4mOk DIfficulty of using & rolling the 30-yr Tsy… it’s a very special bond $$ Aug 20, 2012
Wrong: Six Investment Moves to Make Now http://t.co/kkoarfR8 Reads like this: missed the rally, so take more risk now to make up 4 it $$ Aug 18, 2012

China

China Confronts Mounting Piles of Unsold Goods http://t.co/qXaOoX0h As w/any command & control economy, eventually get gluts & shortages $$ Aug 24, 2012
How China Sees America http://t.co/Cv0d61KI Believe US a revisionist power, seeks2curtail China’s political influence & harm its interests Aug 24, 2012
Caterpillar Cuts China Production as Digger Slump Reaches Mining http://t.co/Rprs0FS2 China’s coming slump has ripple effects $$ $CAT Aug 24, 2012
China Has Become One Big “Stuffed Channel” http://t.co/aAFwHUyj Strategies of promoting exports & forced industrialization have failed $$ Aug 24, 2012
Weak Demand Drags on Chinese Carmakers, Earnings Growth Stalls http://t.co/dvIrhc0D China slowing rapidly, also c http://t.co/po7PVA3a $$ Aug 22, 2012
For China, Too Much Steel Isn’t Enough http://t.co/af9MjbWT Economic growth happens when actions expand options 4 society as a whole $$ Aug 22, 2012
China’s Brewing Pension Crisis http://t.co/pHq4Ijgg Still at $3T, it’s a lot smaller than what the developed nations r facing $$ Aug 22, 2012
China Reluctance on Reserve Cut Signals Inflation Concern http://t.co/WcH0kKkM If inflation starts running in China, the game changes $$ Aug 20, 2012
China?s Yuan Decades From Challenging Dollar http://t.co/J3hmRaID It takes a long time to create deep/transparent capital markets $$ Aug 20, 2012
China Said to Order Action by Banks as Developer Loans Sour http://t.co/EUj63rb3 This is a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis, NOT $$ Aug 18, 2012

Money Market Funds

Statement Regarding Money Market Funds by Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar http://t.co/6RNScb0L Well-thought out dissent on MMFs. Good job $$ Aug 24, 2012
Wrong: The lurking dangers in money market funds http://t.co/q2X3gSe8 Another scare piece. MMFs are more stable than banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
Just sent Mary Shapiro my compromise proposal on money market funds. Hope she grabs it and runs with it http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
Big Blow for Money-Fund Overhaul http://t.co/jnRnfA97 Yay! No changes for MMFs, which are better managed than banks. $$ Aug 23, 2012

Municipal Bonds

The 5 Biggest Muni Defaults Ever http://t.co/BlqI96wY Instructive. CA & OH tobacco bonds, Jefferson County, AL, American Air & WPPSS $$ Aug 23, 2012
Should Muni Investors Follow Buffett to the Exits? http://t.co/6w7wgnzg Sound advice: B selective, only buy what funds necessity $$ Aug 23, 2012
U.S. muni market riled by Fed report on defaults http://t.co/6XC0OmS8 Corrects many false impressions generated by the NY Fed muni piece $$ Aug 23, 2012
School district debt, representing lgst % of California net par insured (35.5%), is ineligible for Chapter 9 BK http://t.co/TU0uG87h $$ $AGO Aug 22, 2012
Buffett?s Exit From Muni-Bonds Signals Trouble Ahead 4 Local Govts http://t.co/Ay9eG3uj Don’t think so; Buffett still owns lotsa munis $$ Aug 21, 2012
Meredith Whitney?s Muni Prediction Gets No Boost From Fed http://t.co/hVWiQBrx Fed study focused on risky areas, non-rated & IDBs $$ Aug 21, 2012

Other

College Tuition’s 1120% Increase http://t.co/632ueDsX Outstrips even the rising cost medical services $$ Graph: http://t.co/bvYQljFC Aug 24, 2012
The closing of American academia http://t.co/MTQjCPQv Adjunct professors earn little&teach a lot. But getting a PhD in Anthropology: Fail $$ Aug 24, 2012
Lawyer separates variable annuity investor & annuitant, allowing him 2 benefit from the deaths of sick people http://t.co/C2xwCtRc $$ Aug 24, 2012
My Last Post – Arnold Kling http://t.co/YvJPt3RH One of the best hangs up his blogging. It’s the way of the internet, ephemeral $$ Aug 24, 2012
Blind Mice Given Sight After Device Cracks Retinal Code http://t.co/pIaxnTtH Looks like a huge advance $$ #goodnews Aug 23, 2012
Wrong: How algorithms will help us spend, spend, spend http://t.co/of3Bhyll People will start blocking it, like telemarketers $$ #FTL #fail Aug 21, 2012
Hopes for Chestnut Revival Growing http://t.co/Y58WfC9n Efforts to restore the chestnut tree seem to be succeeding $$ Aug 21, 2012
Historians, rather than mathematicians usually make better economic predictions, but that’s not saying much… http://t.co/db7NDOKf Aug 20, 2012

Eurozone

Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts Hollande http://t.co/wlXKlz8h Not sure how this will lead to a long-term solution $$ Aug 23, 2012
Last Man Standing Means Europe Investment Banks Resist Cuts http://t.co/eIauqQj1 Total capacity must fall, the survivors get better biz $$ Aug 22, 2012
Wrong: Spain and Italy Are (Probably) Fine http://t.co/5jiC6zRQ Add in the social welfare obligations & dysfunctional politics $$ Aug 20, 2012
Finnish Euro Doubts Hide Business Plea to Commit to Currency http://t.co/rDbf5isL Euro weak 4 core EZ countries, & 2 strong 4 EZ-fringe $$ Aug 20, 2012

Around the World

First Solar to Build India Farms as Outages Propel Sun Power http://t.co/MJGiIrhj Sunshine is more reliable than India’s electric grid $$ Aug 23, 2012
The ECB: Europe’s Conditional Bank http://t.co/6abGujtg “these ideas fail to take account of a key ECB requirement: conditionality.” $$ Aug 21, 2012
A Tax Revolt in Japan, and a Bond Bubble Too http://t.co/CoL7Ticw Unrealistic view; financial claims exceed Japanese resources $$ Aug 22, 2012
What a Tangled Financial Web Terrorist Networks Weave http://t.co/84eBN6Mc In a networked era, difficult2avoid leaving digital breadcrumbs Aug 22, 2012
“The FSA warned that its [risk] survey results were based on self-assessments by individual [hedge fund] managers” http://t.co/KWb6ktQy $$ Aug 21, 2012

Energy

Think Gas Prices Are Bad Now? http://t.co/l4srlshm Between Iran & refinery outages, gas prices are rising particularly on the coasts $$ Aug 21, 2012
The Exquisite Symmetry of the Natural Gas Revolution http://t.co/QSit1HWT 10 points on how cheap natural gas is an aid 2 the economy $$ Aug 21, 2012
Methanol Wins http://t.co/yYP0Z1Qp Interesting experiment fueling a car w/methanol did not take much effort, cheaper & cleaner $$ Aug 20, 2012

Comments

“None of the things you mentioned are markets. The article above is about manipulating markets, not?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OcU9gn4O Aug 25, 2012
Tropical storm Isaac is likely to miss Tampa anyway, storm is consistently moving west of the forecast track of NOAA $$ Aug 24, 2012
Haiti has trouble w/rain & 40 mph winds, much less 60 mph $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: Forget Tampa. Pray for Haiti. http://t.co/eJBxmukv Aug 24, 2012
@PlanMaestro Thanks 4 passing the article along; some of those benefit designs are astounding $$ Aug 24, 2012
@BubblesandBusts I don’t think so Aug 24, 2012
@AnaCapMgmt Very good points. There are others trying to do things his way, but difficult 2 manage an insurance investing conglomerate $$ Aug 24, 2012
@ToddSullivan Yes, and here it is: http://t.co/SqXcFiqI Aug 24, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The only way medical costs will decline is to move to a first-party payer system. When its your ow? http://t.co/Dzjy8j6b Aug 24, 2012
“Impossible to manipulate markets without leaving accounting trial. Conspiracies r bunk.” http://t.co/WaXMpySm http://t.co/TPnCsHiB $$ Aug 24, 2012
RT @fundmyfund: again why is Japan stock market not up 100% of %,they did many QEs and CB can buy equity assets there.Its mostly psychol … Aug 24, 2012
plus ?a change, plus c’est la m?me chose $$ RT @munilass: So Glenn Hubbard has started blogging and Arnold Kling is giving it up. Egads. Aug 24, 2012
@rajivatbarnard Nice piece. Did not know you had written it, because my RSS reader broke 2 months ago & I have not rebuilt it yet $$ Aug 24, 2012
@ShawnMcFarlane My proposal makes MMF holders take losses in bites, and avoids “runs of funds.” U can read it here: http://t.co/vuNGATPK Aug 24, 2012
RT @merrillmatter: @ShawnMcFarlane @alephblog I disagree. They should not be FDIC insured and should be allowed to ‘break buck’ on occasion. Aug 24, 2012
@politicoroger Isaac may hit the gulf coast on FL panhandle or further west. God is not man or woman, but he represents himself as a man Aug 24, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Hasn’t worked so far. Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results $$ http://ww? http://t.co/tIOtLhYh Aug 23, 2012
@nereidadin Yes, no response yet Aug 23, 2012
@foxjust Just sent it off to her. Commented on her article, but Reuters is having issues w/blogs and comments these days Aug 23, 2012
@SallieKrawcheck @Reuters Would you be willing to review my compromise proposal on money market funds? http://t.co/6vrVXVGS Thanks. Aug 23, 2012
@foxjust Been pushing this idea for 3 years, have sent it to the SEC, but I’m a disinterested nobody. Felix Salmon liked it, as have others Aug 23, 2012
@eisingerj Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
@foxjust Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
@merrillmatter I’ve even heard that Dihydrogen Monoxide is making is way into the water supplies! $$ #help #thereisalwaysenoughtimetopanic Aug 23, 2012
@TFMkts @The_Analyst Good points, seems to be more mkt timing than disaster, though I know of some putting on CDS trades. Pay prem & hope $$ Aug 23, 2012
@munilass Yes, that’s correct, but I could not fit that in. Aug 23, 2012
@TheStalwart Really seems like Romney was on the aggressive side of legal on taxes, but his investments aren’t unusual for a rich guy $$ Aug 23, 2012
@TheStalwart Do I have this right then: a company that Romney invested in was 1 of the lenders through CLOs to American Media Operations? $$ Aug 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap Thanks for the praise. I just try to write about what is most motivating to me on any given night Aug 23, 2012
@moorehn Read some of the comment letters at the SEC, a non-stable public NAV 4 MMFs would cause significant harm to users. $$ Aug 23, 2012
@Dvolatility Yes, I heard, that was a decade or so in the making. Actuaries sometimes joke that we keep GASB around 2 make FASB look good $$ Aug 23, 2012
@Dvolatility does that affect Poway School district’s ability to service their debt? Yes, data quality varies more with munis than corps Aug 22, 2012
@Dvolatility don’t knowhow to bring their thinking up a level of complexity, and say, if CA is in trouble, and San Diego County, then how + Aug 22, 2012
@Dvolatility Just read a few articles on overlapping debt. Interesting; love to learn. I think some investors don’t look at it b/c they + Aug 22, 2012
@Dvolatility Yes, but I am not an expert on it; as investors go, I am a generalist Aug 22, 2012
@Dvolatility What do you mean by overlapping? I just found it interesting that CA schools can’t use BK Ch 9… Aug 22, 2012
RT @TheStalwart: In the old days, the idea that None Of The Above could actually ‘win’ (thus making an office go unfilled) was promoted … Aug 22, 2012
RT @historysquared: The $Fed is like the frustrated driver who keeps pumping gas into a car that won’t start, eventually flooding the en … Aug 22, 2012
@GaelicTorus I might be inclined to the bank debt of $ZNGA or $GRPN. No way $FB goes broke; it has a franchise $$ Aug 22, 2012
@joshuademasi I’m saying that Japanese society has not yet come to grips with its inability to fund future promises, that’s all $$ Aug 22, 2012
Clever and not what I expected $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: “But at least now we know.” http://t.co/mh5Ldk62 Aug 22, 2012
Just finished complex stock screening: 28 candidates, auto parts, airlines, insurers, regional banks, infotech, retail, etc. $$ #bizarre Aug 22, 2012
“At that price, bondholders will scour the Globe 4 external assets of Belize, and place liens on them” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/rZGmkSgQ Aug 21, 2012
“Maybe they should team up with the US Postal Service. Lotsa locations, and they need $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lKe9ShxQ Aug 21, 2012
@LarryThompson5 Historically, successful political movements do 1 of 2 things: form a 3rd party, or gain influence over1 of the parties $$ Aug 21, 2012
@LarryThompson5 I would agree w/u that #OWS is not Dem-driven. Some tried to use it, couldn’t figure out how, vs repubs co-opting t-party $$ Aug 21, 2012
Catch my comment http://t.co/FHwMSyLX Yes, 4 2 reasons RT @ritholtz: Is Pension-Plan Shift Into Bonds Permanent? http://t.co/OWjdqPjH $$ Aug 21, 2012
@WatersLogan Good, keep it up. 12% of my readers are Canadian. Aug 21, 2012
@TheStalwart Here it is: http://t.co/fBvKxQXq Aug 21, 2012
@TheStalwart I wrote a data-intensive post on the Poway School Distirict, and you didn’t post it to BI, but lesser posts did make it to BI. Aug 21, 2012
@ETFProfessor1 I understand and that is fine. Aug 21, 2012
@e_d_sanders I’m interested in stopping the next crisis; I would like to end interstate branching, and hand regulation back to the states $$ Aug 21, 2012
@milktrader Thanks, nice to know it is not just me. Aug 20, 2012
Anyone else finding Yahoo Finance to be squirrelly now? $$ Aug 20, 2012
@ritholtz I live near Baltimore. B4 my father-in-law died, wud visit in-laws in La Jolla every few years. Wife’s favorite beach near Romney Aug 20, 2012
I know I have walked past it; didn’t know Romney owned it $$ RT @ritholtz: Mitt Romneys water front LaJolla shack http://t.co/ee8AwnEN Aug 20, 2012
@asymmetricinfo Most homeschoolers in Howard County, MD r secular, many r liberal; the schools r not performing well; HS kids get peer time2 Aug 20, 2012
RT @asymmetricinfo: Why worry homeschool kids won’t get socialized? It’s spending most of your time around a mob of your own age that is … Aug 20, 2012
As a class yes, some won’t gain critical mass $$ RT @GaelicTorus: but bond etf doing ok, right? low costs, asset growth – as a class Aug 20, 2012
Too much honesty there $$ RT @RNPJHP: @The_Analyst @AlephBlog RBC Dominion told me they can’t make 5% returns on client’s money! Aug 20, 2012
@wesbury @ 1st Tsy-blogger summit, I encouraged the high-level people there to do that, & what are they considering now — floaters! $$ Aug 20, 2012
@ETFProfessor1 You would probably know better than me. It seems economics of running a bunch small funds is poor. Open to your thoughts $$ Aug 20, 2012
@abnormalreturns I would consider $FB @ around $8, a touch over book value and a PEEG ratio of 50%, mainly b/c revenue model is unclear $$ Aug 20, 2012
@ToddSullivan I knew you were being sarcastic, just wanted to flesh out my thoughts further Aug 20, 2012
@ToddSullivan Of course that’s easier; I use a technique like that to try to deal w/high growth situations that r uncertain $$ Aug 20, 2012
Hard to compete against $AMZN, which doesn’t have an immediate profit motive. $BKS http://t.co/SC5gA1Ps Aug 20, 2012
“Corporate spread tightening is highly correlated w/VIX, another reason $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/R9vTpa7s $$ http://t.co/M7X60pC5 Aug 20, 2012
@ToddSullivan I would try this 4 $AAPL — est mkt size @ maturity, time 2 maturity, value of biz then & discount @ 12% 2 get NPV/sh $$ #swag Aug 20, 2012
“Almost no one arrives early to a fad/motif, so investing of this sort is likely to lose.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/yCJ0K9SY $$ Aug 20, 2012
Much wisdom from Mr. Berra $$ RT @JATranfo: @AlephBlog As Yogi said, “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.” Aug 20, 2012
“I get surprised by what gets attention when I write. To have two pieces on the top 10 list is?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/UpaKEY0I $$ Aug 20, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Pray tell, what interest does Putin have in liberalizing? Current system favors his retention of p? http://t.co/RjR8WI0C Aug 20, 2012
@geronimo2003 It means that mortgage bonds will lose net demand, but F&F will still gtee conforming MBS. Pvt sector can absorb supply $$ Aug 20, 2012
+1 Well done $$ RT @AmityShlaes: Lobsters as metaphor for everything, including Obama trade policy: http://t.co/qDn83Fqs Aug 19, 2012
@StockTwits got the ticker wrong. Mosaic is $MOS , Monsanto is $MON . Both in agriculture… $$ Aug 18, 2012
@prchovanec They should listen to Pettis, Walter, & Shih also Aug 18, 2012
@prchovanec If they are listening to you, that is good for all of us. $$ Aug 18, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 17 August 2012 by David Merkel

Note: Tomorrow (Saturday) I will be on WBAL Radio at 8:30 AM Eastern with local radio host Jimmy Mathis, talking about the markets.? If you are up, they do stream the broadcast.

Market Dynamics

Six Weeks of Green: Stocks Quietly Creep Higher http://t.co/XYxAfaOj Markets move up at half the speed they go down http://t.co/d09QUp8y $$ Aug 18, 2012
Premiums dominate in HY CEFs & loan participation CE funds, even the investment grade funds r seeing discounts fade. Too hot. $$ #yieldlust Aug 17, 2012
T. Rowe Price Small Cap Fund Veteran Preston Athey to Exit in 2014 http://t.co/Y6BRCnmW One of $TROW ‘s finest takes a less active role $$ Aug 17, 2012
Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm?s Equity Assets http://t.co/5ESGLVdl Makes me bearish on gold. Bad mkt could b a forced seller $$ Aug 17, 2012
What should I do with my money now? http://t.co/xqXtnPqb My view is this, if acctg is conservative, buy stocks P/TB < 1.5, P/E < 10 $$ Aug 17, 2012
Usage: That was a real Facebook of an IPO! 2) We really Facebooked the IPO buyers! 3) Avoid this IPO, it’s going 2b a real Facebook! $FB $$ Aug 17, 2012
Facebook puts follow-on on ice http://t.co/d2CMGLvl Avoiding adding insult to injury. Lousy IPOs in the future will be called “Facebooks” $$ Aug 17, 2012
It’s usually a bad sign when locals are selling, and foreigners buying. How do foreigners have more knowledge? $$ http://t.co/mhOHunFj Aug 16, 2012
Man overrides machine to tackle low bond yield risk http://t.co/IDTSByMr Momentum isn’t everything w/bonds, eventually mean reversion. $$ Aug 16, 2012
Whenever you mention CDS spreads, could you do us the favor of citing that spreads bonds are trading at? You are, aft? http://t.co/o3StHaG0 Aug 15, 2012
You Are Now About to Witness the Strength of Street Knowledge http://t.co/jV4bxWc4 Having a revenue model is an aid to stock performance $$ Aug 15, 2012
Even Amid the Current Turmoil, Stocks Still Beat Bonds http://t.co/fqTWnM6g Issuing this opinion: a crowded trade http://t.co/X6KGWp5b $$ Aug 14, 2012
Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil http://t.co/gQpc19Hz Pressure for prices to fall amid ETF-based hoarding $$ Aug 14, 2012
Junk-Bond Buyers Plot Escape in Debt Gap http://t.co/lEVYDv9f Smart money moving up in liquidity & down in yield. Junk rally continues $$ Aug 14, 2012
A Green Light for Car Loans http://t.co/VqfWA4AK Banks, Finance Firms Boost Auto Lending; Fed Survey Finds Easier Standards $$ #moredebt Aug 14, 2012
Stocks: The ‘Safety’ Dance http://t.co/N9CNg4aO Defensive stock valuations high relative to cyclicals. Graph: http://t.co/Q17aYeiU $$ Aug 13, 2012
As Corporate-Bond Yields Sink, Risks for Investors Rise http://t.co/WeET5vWD Maybe. Debt-deflation has a funny way of persisting $$ Aug 13, 2012

Rest of World

Mexico’s big oil problem http://t.co/e3b6V19s Yrs of abuse &non-investment by PEMEX, milked by the govt, oil production declining fast $$ Aug 18, 2012
Iranian Currency Traders Find a Haven in Afghanistan http://t.co/Bcw8l03A Sorta fitting that Afghans make $$ breaking sanctions on Iran $$ Aug 18, 2012
Rate Cuts on the Cards for Norway and Sweden http://t.co/REReXdiF We need a new Gresham’s Law on Monetary Policy. See in next tweet $$ Aug 17, 2012
Bad monetary policy drives out good monetary policy when large countries inflate, & exporters in small countries complain about losses $$ Aug 17, 2012
You can say that again $$ RT @saraeisenFX: More signs of worsening credit quality in China http://t.co/KLAApyBy Aug 17, 2012
Aramco Says Virus Attacks Network, Oil Output Unaffected http://t.co/o0p8Rb94 What shall we call this? The Cold Techno-War? $$ Aug 16, 2012
The only way out for China: Andy Xie http://t.co/ROaF0C2S Problems only going2get worse as long as government interferes $$ #chinacrash Aug 15, 2012
Beijing Loan Guarantee Firm Teeters on the Edge http://t.co/XtapRo8W A sign of things to come, and how will China deal with the defaults? $$ Aug 15, 2012
China?s money outflow continues in July http://t.co/xpMby8WI The wealthy of China send capital abroad, so that they can survive anything $$ Aug 15, 2012
German Provinces Struggle to Lure Skilled Workers http://t.co/yN61QTaJ Europe can find work, but will have to find it in Germany $$ Aug 14, 2012
Correlation Breakdown as Proxies for Risk Boost Aussie, Kiwi http://t.co/4zQMFGQd Countries w/good $$ policy draw funds, harming exporters Aug 14, 2012
Africa’s pirates have demands – and letterhead, too http://t.co/GKbc4Jcm Not intimidation, merely “making you an offer you can’t refuse” $$ Aug 13, 2012
Mursi Sidelines Egypt?s Top Generals Amid Power Struggle http://t.co/KAOWGQdE Push is coming to shove; Military vs Muslim Brotherhood $$ Aug 13, 2012

US Economy

The case for supply-side tax cuts http://t.co/EYfStM7t Tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next 3 years by nearly 3% $$ Aug 17, 2012
London Firings Seen Surging as Finance Firms Add NY Jobs http://t.co/D0to5HSo Finance jobs grow where the regulations are lowest $$ Aug 17, 2012
5 years forward, five year inflation: http://t.co/q98ZknDn Seems to top out @ 2.7% recently, 3% longer-term http://t.co/rqFkN26r $$ Aug 16, 2012
Farmland Prices Surge Across the Plains States http://t.co/we6hZAcP Poss causes: hi grain prices & widespread use of crop insurance $$ Aug 16, 2012
The Downside of a Recovery in Housing http://t.co/BfzmDdYr “potential uptick in inflation measures, of which housing is a big component” Aug 16, 2012
Will births come back with the economy? http://t.co/sYqJjBXm Yes, people have more children when they are optimistic about the future $$ Aug 15, 2012
Wrong: What if baby boomers don’t live forever? http://t.co/kRLnHqrA Even if mortality does not improve @ prior rate, makes little $$ diff Aug 15, 2012
Mathematically Possible http://t.co/ziQNoQx4 Correcting the false assumptions of Obama’s tax gurus | Govt in DC is always dishonest $$ Aug 14, 2012
Clarity of communication is not the Fed’s problem. If you have bad policy, it doesn’t matter how you present it. http://t.co/C27MJ2QX Aug 13, 2012

Pensions

Unions protest Democrats at Illinois State Fair http://t.co/uU7twsOK Govt workers learn hard reality. Benefits not protected by ERISA + $$ Aug 18, 2012
Which means underfunded benefits may never b paid at the level promised. Taxes can’t b raised enough to make it work, either. Sorry $$ 🙁 Aug 18, 2012
@mckpartners There r 3 parties not getting blame here aside from the standard ones: 1) accountants that dreamed up lousy funding rules + $$ Aug 18, 2012
@mckpartners 2) Actuaries didn’t pushback on investment assumptions & 3) Union negotiators thot they were smart trading salary 4 pensions $$ Aug 18, 2012
Annals of dubious research, 401(k) loan-default edition http://t.co/LDLsN0f1 401k loan defaults r 2% of what widely-cited study claims $$ Aug 13, 2012

GSE Bailout Change

Fannie?s and Freddie?s Forgettable Friday http://t.co/kvfNkBcI Investment whose value is dependent on unknowable government policy $$ Aug 18, 2012
GSEs expected to unload delinquent loans after Treasury change http://t.co/2g7tiIxI Portolios to shrink through prepays/writeoffs 15%/yr $$ Aug 17, 2012
Anybody have guesses as2what $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAT $FMCCK should be worth? Pfds ~ 2 coupon pmts? Common stock ~ 0? Prob(going-away present)? $$ Aug 17, 2012
Treasury to wind down GSEs faster, only to be replaced with (insert solution here) http://t.co/mAtyKpHs Future of the GSEs in question $$ Aug 17, 2012
Treasury to Amend Terms of Fannie, Freddie Bailout http://t.co/iZcCdXML Cancels 10% div, all profits go2 Tsy. Comm stocks down 20-25% $$ Aug 17, 2012
Fannie, Freddie Pfds Sink As Treasury Amends Bailout Terms http://t.co/3pGEjsrF Down 52-55% today. That was the crunch you heard $$ Aug 17, 2012

Municipal Bonds

Bondholders, insurers challenge San Bernardino bankruptcy http://t.co/WE2vRb6e They allege SB finances are not in a state of emergency $$ Aug 18, 2012
That really stinks, can’t comment there also $$ RT @Tubulus: @munilass I think your head will slam into your desk – http://t.co/8G1e0plE Aug 16, 2012
The Untold Story of Municipal Bond Defaults http://t.co/2UKKOIUA Trivial thots from researchers @ NYFed, my comment: http://t.co/EP5aUq29 $$ Aug 15, 2012
Looking for Higher Yields? Try ‘Junky’ Municipal Bonds http://t.co/qo9DfZKt Safer than corporate junk, but less liquid. Be careful $$ Aug 13, 2012

Other

Apple judge: ?I see risk? and 7 more newsmaker quotes http://t.co/wyBoToT7 Notable quotes in the business world $$ Aug 17, 2012
The Valley of Free Food: How One Firm Caters to California’s High Tech Giants http://t.co/cijDNgdC Companies r armies; travel on stomach $$ Aug 17, 2012
Texas Seeks Seizure of Life Partners http://t.co/MWofrEv2 ‘Bout time. Life settlements should b illegal; no insurable interest $LPHI $$ Aug 17, 2012
More trial, less error: An effort to improve scientific studies http://t.co/i2PLAD5h Why I am skeptical of much biometric research $$ Aug 16, 2012
when $AMGN ‘s scientists tried to replicate 53 prominent studies in basic cancer biology … they were able to confirm the results of only 6 Aug 16, 2012
Mobile pay war: Wal-Mart and others vs. Google http://t.co/Q30PZQGP So much innovation in payment systems; wonder which will win? $$ Aug 15, 2012
Nassim Taleb: Stay Out of the Investment Industry http://t.co/ZyomTwjB Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville r @ work & still making $$ Aug 15, 2012
Deep ocean lure grows as high-tech drilling pays off http://t.co/P4UP4ZWs The technology for extracting oil grows ever more complex $$ Aug 15, 2012
Buyers Beware: The Goodwill Games http://t.co/eA7XEXjr Check the cash from operations. Should exceed earnings if Goodwill is valid. $$ Aug 14, 2012
CLEAN UP THE BALANCE SHEET: GET RID OF DEFERRED TAXES http://t.co/DTfT8bRg Future income or losses can’t be assured, so not asset or liab $$ Aug 13, 2012

Comments

@BarbarianCap The firm I was with sold $AIG the day it went into the Dow. Close to a “top tick.” $HIG , did not do hearly as well 🙁 $$ Aug 18, 2012
@The_Dumb_Money @pkedrosky is a bright guy. Many got it right, but fads suck people in. Aug 17, 2012
RE: @boingboing Not too surprising. Many corporations pay low taxes b/c of govt incentives. Relationship 2 mgmt pay s? http://t.co/KoChJizm Aug 17, 2012
@Breakingviews The sooner the euro dissolves, the less will be the pain for all involved. It was a mistake from the start. $$ Aug 17, 2012
@pelias01 Many thanks for the many times you have asked people to follow me. I really appreciate it. Aug 17, 2012
@JimPethokoukis I’m reading it now; that’s a fair assessment. Beyond that, it reinforces how hard it is to do anything in DC $$ Aug 16, 2012
RT @PragCapitalist: Pushing up stock prices does not make underlying assets more profitable. The whole premise of the Bernanke Put is f … Aug 16, 2012
@FeeOnlyIndy I try to be fair, I don’t always succeed, and I do have my biases, so take me with a grain of salt, but thanks $$ Aug 16, 2012
@izakaminska Whenever I go to Boston, I always take the Water Taxi from the airport. Lets me off in Downtown –beautiful view of the city $$ Aug 15, 2012
@munilass Glad u said: “The Fed really ought to be embarrassed that it published something like this.” I didn’t say that & should have $$ Aug 15, 2012
@The_Analyst true… too much quantitative talent went to Wall Street, applied the wrong model: physics, rather than right model: ecology $$ Aug 15, 2012
My friend Eric Hovde sadly didn’t win the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary; Eric would’ve shaken up DC. Thompson is business as usual $$ Aug 15, 2012
“Proppants prop open cracks when hydraulic fracturing is done. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OuqTSMAc Aug 14, 2012
?I wasn’t that impressed w/Inker’s analysis. Does not take into account dollar-weighted returns. $$ http://t.co/C5Gh0pOl Aug 13, 2012
@nancefinance I was pretty nerdy, though not withdrawn, back then. My mom was a self-taught investor. I caught the bug from her. $$ Aug 13, 2012
When I was a teenager, I remember looking through the bond tables, noting that almost all prices were below 100. Today it is the opposite $$ Aug 13, 2012
@japhychron @Peter_Atwater You were more than mostly right, it’s a great book. Only wish it could have been bigger. $$ Aug 12, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 10 August 2012 by David Merkel

Life Insurance Secondary Guarantees

Hartford Mulls Client Buyouts to Cut Risk Buffett Called Ungodly http://t.co/Nv4jRlUC Advice: don’t take the Variable Annuity buyouts $$ Aug 10, 2012
The original: Buffett Says Insurers Took ‘Ungodly Amount of Risk’ http://t.co/pXfXv8ME Warren Buffett again is prescient cc: @PlanMaestro $$ Aug 10, 2012
@PlanMaestro Thanks4 flagging this. Together w/companies scaling back gtees 4 new prods, the buyout offers show the probs in the life biz $$ Aug 10, 2012
@PlanMaestro I am not in favor of peer review. Actuaries call themselves a “profession,” but they really technicians. Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Regulators not crazy for this, because they can’t understand it, & almost makes the companies self-regulating. Peer Review? $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But actuaries are trying to get regulators to cmove to a Canadian-style principle based approach. In Actuaries we Trust! $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But the devil is in the details, and GAAP reserving does not always reflect antiselection. Stat tries to do that, but + $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But you’re right, the 10Ks do contain approximate partial sensitivity data on economic value for most important variables $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro In 1999, I saw a VA that guaranteed 7% minimum return if held till death or annuitization $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I said “Wow, how do you guarantee the better of 5%/yr and performance of the underlying 4 just 2.25%?” $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I have a friend who is a $PRU agent. One day he showed me his hottest-selling VA product, and ask me how I liked it. $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Acctg can get really screwy if you hedge NPV or FMV; gets really noisy because the results pile up in the current year $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro hedging long-dated options, w/complex contingencies built into them. Do you hedge next few years, or NPV sensitivity? $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I was an ALM actuary for many years, typically we hedged partial durations; fixed income hedging is easy, what’s hard is $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro many exposures are impossible to hedge b/c the contracts r long-term, and hedge instruments r usually far shorter $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro That’s one of my concerns about the life industry; secondary guarantees r virtually impossible to reserve, getting big now $$ Aug 09, 2012

Insurance Industry

@ReformedBroker Good post, same thing happens with young life insurance agents to a degree http://t.co/LbMyo48G $$ Aug 10, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman P&C – P/TB vs ROTE, adjusted 4 business mix, reserve life & conservatism, mgmt quality, U/W cycle, never premiums $$ Aug 09, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman Most of it is change in required capital. Life actuaries typically calculate “distibutable earnings” reflting stat & RBC $$ Aug 09, 2012
Anytime anyone talks about Financial Cos & tells u about Free Cash Flow, ask how they did the calc. C if they mention chg in req capital $$ Aug 09, 2012
Wrong: 3 Life Insurance Stocks Undervalued By Levered Free Cash Flows http://t.co/gF5HYRZb GAAP financials don’t have data4 FCF calcs $$ Aug 09, 2012
Aviva profits fall as it cuts the value of its US unit http://t.co/t816IjAZ Amerus IR was annoyed @ me 4saying the orignal deal expensive $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro HIG is next on my list Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Thanks, I know where to get them, but I have enough GNW on my plate for now, I took me two weeks to write my AIG piece. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Have not looked at HIG, after I am done with GNW may take a look. If u r looking at stat acctg, look @ pg 5 indiv annuities $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro That’s the thing, like AIG prior to the crisis, and Scottish Re, they are capital constrained; things have 2go right 4 them $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro & not so sure about the rest if investing for more than five years. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Aye, agreed. Oddly, my interest stemmed from a reader who asked me if I would invest in GNW bonds. Yes 4 GIC-MTNs + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I’m going to write a broad piece about it, but follow it up, with a narrow piece focusing on the specific problems. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Intercompany surplus notes and preferred stock too. Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro There’s a ton. Underreserving, capital stacking, capital interlacing, intercompany reinsurance, & I’ve ony been looking 2 hours Aug 09, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman Good guess, I need to look at the life co stmts someday, esp. page 5 for Indiv annuities Aug 09, 2012
Ding! We have a winner! RT @RennieScinto: @AlephBlog gnw? Aug 09, 2012
I’m a fun guy, looking @ statutory statements of a major US insurer, though AIG in 2008 looked worse, this company doesn’t look good $$ Who? Aug 09, 2012
Online Dating for Homes Stumps Insurers http://t.co/R2fmztPa Y not have both deposit $$ w/the insurer plus a premium payment? #wouldwork Aug 08, 2012
Regulators Probe ‘Captives’ http://t.co/xbXQ5aYO How to bend life insurance reserves. Catch my comment: http://t.co/9WQWYZ3W $$ Aug 06, 2012
Berkshire Trims Municipal-Debt Bet http://t.co/9zhhbdtD Meredith Whitney, no. Buffett, yes. But even he is only selectively reducing $$ Aug 05, 2012

Poway School District

Article near issuance of Poway School District CAB http://t.co/kxAWCNxT Letter from CA AG: http://t.co/UiZM0j3K cc: @munilass @jamessaft $$ Aug 06, 2012
@jamessaft I’m not a muni expert like @munilass, but no, I would try to find another way to refinance prior debts. $$ Aug 06, 2012
Ideal buyer4the preceding bond would b Buffett, or a P&C company w/long-tail liabilities. Prospectus 4 wonks only http://t.co/nIKJvJje $$ Aug 06, 2012
Where Borrowing $105 Million Will Cost $1 Billion: Poway Schools http://t.co/IPaABoXY Paying 7.6% IRR at a duration of 25. Astounding! $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass Also, I found the prospectus here: http://t.co/nIKJvJje Last Q: Do county tax levies into a sinking fund ever fail to work? $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass I get the holder taxes now. Poway was structured as a series of zero coupon notes, followed by 2 series of long lottery bonds $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass Used to be an asset-liability manager, so I look for that. 1 question: do you know how holders are taxed on a deal like that? Aug 06, 2012
@munilass This is just a crude estimate, but the IRR on the Poway deal is around 7.7%, and is nonrefinancable. Duration estimate 25 years $$ Aug 06, 2012

Rest of the World

China Export Growth Slides as World Recovery Slows http://t.co/u4YEUPQB China sneezes & the world catches a cold? no, important anyway $$ Aug 10, 2012
India?s Biggest Corporate Loss Shows Singh?s Dilemma on Deficit http://t.co/6xl7lsZD Force oil company to lose $$, eventually lose oil co. Aug 10, 2012
Housewives With Frying Pans Protest Japan Tax Hike as Debt Soars http://t.co/z3aeqjEv Taxes to double; can’t keep borrowing 4ever $$ Aug 10, 2012
Virus found in Mideast can spy on finance transactions http://t.co/V2GgyjpV Can spy on financial transactions, email & social networking $$ Aug 09, 2012
Toronto Condo ?Roller Coaster? Peaks as Flaherty Acts http://t.co/c6sJ0CqE Is Canadian housing a basketball (sss) or a bubble (pop)? $$ Aug 08, 2012
Iran?s Big Crisis: The Price of Chicken http://t.co/WXlUIIdL Describes some the economic difficulties of Iran under sanctions $$ Aug 08, 2012
Article makes a good point. The industries where China has overcapacity are power-intensive & are shrinking. Simple. http://t.co/IzyV0Bxe Aug 08, 2012
China’s answer to subprime bets: the “Golden Elephant” http://t.co/MP7LviwT Illiquid investments touting high returns w/lousy business $$ Aug 07, 2012
RE: Things are getting less equal in the US, because we allow more freedom here.? Globally, things are getting more e? http://t.co/WeGEEJF9 Aug 07, 2012
Presidential candidate up by 15%+ in August will win. If merely ahead, 9 times out of 12 he will win the Presidency http://t.co/soCj7Kf9 Aug 08, 2012
Swiss Banks Face Slow Death as Taxman Chases Assets http://t.co/13I9NkiQ Life’s tough when u can no longer help people cheat the taxman $$ Aug 06, 2012
Germany has the most to lose from a meltdown http://t.co/9JTwRfii Basically encourages an inflationary “solution.” Prob won’t work $$ Aug 06, 2012
If policymakers are worried about this, they are worried about the wrong thing. EU does not have that big… http://t.co/eCBlZg5I Aug 06, 2012
Summary: greater structural unity, mutualization of sovereign debts and a weak euro $$ Tough order for the… http://t.co/KN9pc0Pt Aug 06, 2012
Rogoff Sees World Wishing It?s America Year After S&P Downgrade http://t.co/MpStm7ww Relative flexibility pays off $$ Aug 06, 2012

Fixed Income

Lending in the offshore markets developed because of bad regulations here. It is outside US control & we should not m? http://t.co/C8y9rVFw Aug 10, 2012
In hunt for yield, hybrids flourish anew http://t.co/GCugG6A6 Credit rally revsup ppl grab yield in exchange 4 higher poss loss severity $$ Aug 09, 2012
Please, no $$ RT @CapitalCityIFR: In hunt for yield, hybrids flourish anew http://t.co/ZWbdRRl5 Aug 09, 2012
For a bad 30-yr Tsy auction, nice rally since then $$ Aug 09, 2012
A Greek banker, the Shah and the birth of Libor http://t.co/ibvVs9mE ht: @alea_ Started w/a loan 2 the Shah. Inauspicious start 4a big # $$ Aug 09, 2012
Definitely a weak auction, surprised long end not selling off $$ RT @ritholtz: 30 yr bond auction weak as well http://t.co/1gU89HMb $$ Aug 09, 2012
“Credit default swaps are easily manipulated. Rather, watch the bond market; it’s much bigger. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/tESmTJsK Aug 09, 2012

Politics

The Neocon War Against Robert Zoellick http://t.co/vZreHf1n If Romney wins, pragmatic Zoellick could be influential on foreign policy $$ Aug 11, 2012
Christie Does Tenure http://t.co/J8krPlim Tenure is one of those sacred cows that hides the intellectually weak from consequences $$ Aug 10, 2012
In New York City, Microsoft Really Is Watching You http://t.co/trNOkU2d Interesting partnership w/NYC & $MSFT Civil liberties? $$ Aug 09, 2012
Postal Service $1 Million-an-Hour Loss Puts Abyss in View http://t.co/FVXMn5Di Raise stamp prices & costs 2 $FDX & $UPS $$ #simple Aug 09, 2012
Here’s The Real Reason The Feds Are Furious At The NY Regulator Going After Standard Chartered http://t.co/OmpwBILH Made Feds look dumb $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Dream, the Republicans will block this because it favors blue states over Red. $$ http://www.bloom? http://t.co/jT7EmSS0 Aug 08, 2012
I think it is a fair tradeoff to lose 2% of GDP in 2013 in order to get the economy growing. I agree with… http://t.co/mwuvnogX Aug 07, 2012
The Numbers Inside a Hot-Button Issue http://t.co/Fwois4YN Something to make everyone unhappy. Me: Don’t focus on rates, but deferral $$ Aug 07, 2012

Pensions & Endowments

State Pensions Get High Fees, Low Profits-Study http://t.co/3LRIL23c Add to that the lack of adequate funding &you have a serious crisis $$ Aug 10, 2012
Cornell, MIT Scale Back Aid Even as Endowments Rise http://t.co/WUoWDLLB Endowments provide less when rates r low, future cashflows smallr Aug 10, 2012
Defined contribution assets hit all-time high despite conservative shift http://t.co/7s9Stabd Amazing 2c bond alloc rising w/low rates $$ Aug 06, 2012
U can say that again $$ RT @e_d_sanders: @AlephBlog now this is an issue I know something about. Public pensions for execs are a nightmare Aug 05, 2012
Police Chief?s $204,000 Pension Shows How Cities Crashed http://t.co/ZorpuSjX Sloppy pension negotiating leads2 L-T cash flow crises. $$ Aug 05, 2012

Energy

Let the market decide.? If people want to pay a lot for gas, let them.? Why is Obama discouraging consumer spending? http://t.co/VT8xCyU0 Aug 10, 2012
Refiners Awash in Shale Oil Offer 10 Times Exxon Returns http://t.co/IIw9xXlb Buy cheap shale oil, ship to coasts, refine, sell & make $$ Aug 10, 2012
Louisiana sinkhole roils local natural gas network http://t.co/IkZxHLAs Now, who could have seen that coming? Risk is pervasive. $$ #sloorp Aug 09, 2012
Coal stocks typically have a lot of debt, beware $$ RT @MKTWBurton: Don?t mine this coal stock – Chuck Jaffe – http://t.co/nCQWfYzQ Aug 09, 2012

Other

Passed 10,000 tweets today. I quit Twitter after my first month, but came back to it after I saw its usefulness. Thanks 4 reading me $$ Aug 10, 2012
Heavy rain in Baltimore w/sleet and sunshine. Really weird weather. Sleet is neat, is hard to beat & will repeat, to make me tweet. $$ #ugh Aug 09, 2012
After Moods & Markets, Bailout is my next book to review. http://t.co/zkioUQ5N Aug 09, 2012
5 Questions Great Job Candidates Ask http://t.co/JpnpVWtu Questions show initiative, intelligence, & give u good jump pts 2 sell yrself $$ Aug 09, 2012
Novel Cure for Ailing Hearts http://t.co/RAiv4FYj Nanotech combines w/vascular endothelial growth factor to grow new heart muscle $$ Aug 09, 2012
Wrong: Business Is Booming in Empirical Economics http://t.co/aTNu4qfu U might get cute papers out of it, but nothing that generalizes $$ Aug 07, 2012

Companies

Yahoo Reviewing Business Strategy, Alibaba Proceeds; Shares Tumble http://t.co/ikk3dpeC Marissa Mayer has plans, & they require $$ Aug 09, 2012
Why Honda?s New Accord Looks Like the Old One http://t.co/6Ez8uL5i FD: + $HMC Designers tire of their designs long b4 users do $$ Aug 09, 2012
The WARN Act dilemma http://t.co/ilbxFsXD Defense, Fiscal cliff, DOL Guidance Letter saying ignore WARN act on 11/1, & elections $$ Aug 09, 2012
Hewlett-Packard?s Whitman Dismantles Hurd-Era Empire http://t.co/ySeeVM9w FD: + $HPQ She seems 2b evaluating each biz separately $$ #good Aug 09, 2012
The New York Times Is About to Say Goodbye to About,com http://t.co/frzrVlUq gives more details on the lossesv$$ Aug 08, 2012
New York Times Shares Rise on Deal to Sell About,com http://t.co/k5GarxXV Amazing how much $NYT lost on it, capital losses, neg income $$ Aug 08, 2012
Judge in Google, Oracle case seeks names of paid reporters, bloggers http://t.co/7vhmK5N3 Fascinating 4bloggers 2b paid $$ by corps quietly Aug 08, 2012
I do not get how http://t.co/ROsNYak3 could be worth $270M. What’s the revenue model? Ads? $$ http://t.co/n1ddWxvU Aug 08, 2012
Wrong: The PC looks like it’s dying http://t.co/IqeVAbi6 Like most tech, when it matures, it finds & stays there. Think of “dead” radio $$ Aug 07, 2012
Amazon Is No Wal-Mart…Yet http://t.co/cmEjPHHu Relatively neutral article on $AMZN by Martin Sosnoff; prob: treats AMZN as retailer $$ Aug 07, 2012
Why FedEx and UPS Want the Postal Service to Survive http://t.co/MAaCfOXQ Solution: raise stamp prices, and prices to $FDX and $UPS $$ #easy Aug 05, 2012

Monetary Policy

Fisher Says More Stimulus May Overburden Central Banks http://t.co/5ZMlKO5G 3-time winner of coveted “FOMC loose cannon award” speaks $$ Aug 08, 2012
Economic Musings – Fed eyeing a new kind of twist? http://t.co/aUezU2XE $$ Extending duration in MBS; creating larger losses later $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bondtrader83 That’s not all that much different than the 1st Twist. It’s duration extension in MBS. Wait till ra? http://t.co/PrMHBSGh Aug 08, 2012
How about quantitative easing for the people? http://t.co/inHK9NF2 Would work better than current QE/Twist etc, but this frightens me. $$ Aug 08, 2012
Wrong: Bernanke to Economists: More Philosophy, Please http://t.co/9638QlHo Been down this road; utility theory doesn’t explain mankind $$ Aug 07, 2012

Housing & Related

Public-Housing Parking Lots Make Everyone Poorer http://t.co/2gensCd8 Set rates to achieve 15% vacancy; Rather than lots, have garages $$ Aug 08, 2012
Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles http://t.co/hMoZBsNZ Good news for the low end of the market, high end will take time $$ Aug 08, 2012
Fannie Mae profits rolled into rainy day fund http://t.co/bDWphSuE Good for Fannie & Freddie preferred, not worth anything 4 the common $$ Aug 08, 2012

Financial Companies & Markets

NYSE in talks with SEC to settle data probe http://t.co/FkxBtlbz Wow, faster data feeds 4 some special clients; level the playing field $$ Aug 09, 2012
Are Diamonds an ETF?s Best Friend? http://t.co/RHbSghCw Bad things happen when you take something illiquid and try to make it liquid $$ Aug 08, 2012
Richest Family Offices Seeing Fastest Growth as Firms Oust Banks http://t.co/NqY9650P UberWealthy get $$ talent; tax savings >> costs Aug 07, 2012
4 ETF Lessons From Knight http://t.co/st6wbNgR Lead Market Makers matter, Markets Work, Settlement Works, Illiquid ETFs Need Helpers $$ Aug 06, 2012
Other problem: active etf gives away trading information it might rather not divulge, leading to front-running. $$ http://t.co/q4XXZwRv Aug 06, 2012
A Tale of Two Fund Giants: American Funds vs Vanguard http://t.co/46rFsL9e Key advantage for Vanguard was embracing ETFs early $$ Aug 06, 2012

Repos

Banks? Liquidity Hinges on Risky Assets http://t.co/45Iw5Dz9 Repo lending is subject2runs during credit panics which depress collateral $$ Aug 08, 2012
Good one $$ RT @pdacosta: Watch out for the grim repo-er RT @cate_long Banks? liquidity hinges on risky assets http://t.co/9lk0GjA0 Aug 08, 2012
The danger of repo http://t.co/mZDG9Ocb Repo is weak financing in crisis; 3-mo T-bills would b a better index 4 Tsy floating rate notes $$ Aug 06, 2012

The Equity Premium

That would get the advantage of stocks over high quality bonds down to ~1-2%/year. Outperforms with a *lot* of noise $$ Aug 11, 2012
Bill Gross Is Wrong About Stocks: GMO http://t.co/c6gJwfUB Truth inbetween; have GMO adjust 4 $$ -weighted returns, not time-weighted Aug 11, 2012
Bonds for the Long Run http://t.co/MmkoYk3U @ritholtz nails it. Advantage of stocks over bonds is ~1%/yr over the long haul. Limited data $$ Aug 10, 2012

Comments

@LDrogen After reading this, I have more certainty that airbnb has already worked out some of the bugs http://t.co/Xx3ztVZv $$ Aug 10, 2012
@LDrogen Fine, Leigh, I hope it works. When single party lending gave way to securitization, it was unstoppable, until lending stds died. $$ Aug 10, 2012
RE: @ldrogen Multiple party economic dealings have their issues.? Consider: http://t.co/Z2rRNeTS? http://t.co/gCrEYzX2 Aug 10, 2012
‘ @TheOneDave In a word: depletion. Costs are rising to incremental barrels of oil, and ounces of gold. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro $CLD LTD/E ~89%, take a look at $HNRG Hallador Energy. I’m not looking @ coal names until I see a few go BK, like steel 2002 $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PragCapitalist Depends on slope of demand curve 4 Tsys. Compare it2the former on-the-run. Jump of 6 bps high for that spot on the curve $$ Aug 08, 2012
@groditi Effective Yield series. Was trying to show that junk yields don’t compress as much when HQ-yields are low. Would have liked OAY $$ Aug 08, 2012
@PragCapitalist If it gets enough assets to survive $$ Aug 08, 2012
@footnoted …and maybe adjs for a year, but large writeoffs mean that prior earnings were overstated; testifies to bad mgmt quality $$ Aug 08, 2012
@footnoted That’s one reason why I tell investors to look at LT growth in BV + Divs rather than op income. I accept adjustments 4 a qtr + $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The single period cost to fix might be small, the continuous transfer cost would be considerably l? http://t.co/9gyFVvh4 Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview When games change from two players to three players, things get messy if no single player has most? http://t.co/TU09OZml Aug 08, 2012
Most pessimistic he’s been on China debts RT @groditi: Wow. I’m used to Pettis’ Euro-pessimism, but he’s not holding back here. U MAD, PROF? Aug 07, 2012
Always a great read RT @groditi: yaaaaaay new Pettis! Aug 07, 2012
@AnaCapMgmt Ain’t true. The foolish models of economists do not take into account political realities, and when inflation runs, no ammo. $$ Aug 05, 2012
@LisaCNBC Ask him how confident he is in India’s power grid. After that, the water supply. $$ Aug 05, 2012
‘ @pvitha Gold moves inversely to real interest rates, a.k.a. cost of carry, that’s all I know. $$ Aug 06, 2012
‘ @WTOP Romney shouldn’t worry about the Fed; they are out of ammo. QE is a joke, as is Operation Twist, and forward fed funds guidance. $$ Aug 05, 2012
+1 I like to say that 🙂 RT @BarbarianCap: “there are more debt claims than resources to pay them at par” Aug 05, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 4 August 2012 by David Merkel

Monetary Policy

Central Banks Can?t Save the World http://t.co/SLzVcZ0r No duh, since printing $$ isn’t productive it can’t do anything to help us. $$ Aug 04, 2012
Another example of how loose monetary policy in the West inflates bubbles in the fringe economies. http://t.co/xA3cKNFh Aug 03, 2012
Central Banks Seek New Crisis Options http://t.co/z3pLZdbw Fed & ECB straining @ the political limits of what they can & should do $$ Aug 02, 2012
SNB-central bank or hedge fund? http://t.co/LFuad30w Policy makers err in thinking they can control markets: task beyond ability of mortals Aug 02, 2012
Ghost of 2008 Haunts Fed as Companies Take Short View on Risk http://t.co/Wl6KgzdS When policy is not sustainable, businessmen cautious $$ Aug 01, 2012
Ben Bernanke Could Lose for Same Reason as Olympic Sailor http://t.co/aPBZLuwN Strong growth resumes when bad debts are liquidated $$ Aug 01, 2012
Deflation Dismissed by Bond Measure Amid QE3 Anticipation http://t.co/pK0cLw5e Link2 5yr inflation 5yrs forward http://t.co/ZVA74EmF $$ Jul 30, 2012

Energy

Tesoro lifts volumes of Bakken rail project http://t.co/eKzsyOu2 Coastal v. central difference in oil prices incent rail delivery of oil $$ Aug 02, 2012
Buffett Railroad Beats Coal Slump With 75% Gain in Oil http://t.co/VK50miRq From coal to crude oil, frack sand, automobiles, pipes &c $$ Aug 02, 2012
Oil Can?t Go Down http://t.co/CV73DUqW Offers long term arguments that we aren’t finding cheaper-to-produce oil, short-run YMMV $$ Jul 30, 2012

Financials

Where Are the Move-up Home Buyers? http://t.co/MDlos0oL Low end of housing in good shape, will take a while for the high end 2 recover $$ Aug 01, 2012
Libor Punishment Could Be Worse Than the Crime http://t.co/jyRCvVtw There’s a lot to unscramble here, and first do no harm should apply $$ Aug 01, 2012
RE: @bloombergview First do no harm. LIBOR dampens volatility during a crisis vs market-derived measures, which are m? http://t.co/q7cLqTpI Aug 01, 2012
“Really doubt getting closer to zero will make banks lend. Fear >> Greed $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ajgZ7K60 http://t.co/M2DtNp4p #fedup Jul 30, 2012
Bank Breakups: Not So Fast http://t.co/CB4TYM4o Think most of TBTF came from allowing interstate branching, not investment banking $$ Jul 30, 2012
10 Things Credit Scores Won’t Say http://t.co/3KIeIqH0 More powerful than most people imagine, & less uniform, customized 4 diff uses $$ Jul 30, 2012

Investing

If I use your framework, that gets me to a 2% real return assumption for stocks. Current dividend yield is… http://t.co/ssMBpc2L Aug 03, 2012
Wrong: Verizon, AT&T, Altria Among Top CDS-Adjusted Dividend Stocks http://t.co/fHEfo9jF This is another misuse of CDS spreads $$ Aug 02, 2012
Fair disclosure for last tweet: Long $HPQ common Aug 01, 2012
Wrong: Debt Markets Aren?t Only Worried About HP, but Dell and Others, Too http://t.co/ho8hqt8R CDS mkt spooked, bigger bond mkt calm $$ Aug 01, 2012
RT @KidDynamiteBlog: hearing NYSE is reviewing trades from this AM. Cancelling them would be the worst thing they could possibly do. @r … Aug 01, 2012
“You need to learn more about bonds & CDS before you write about them.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/zcTji7O6 $$ Aug 01, 2012
Seeing a weird inverted market in $PSX w/bid $1 > ask. Weird, why doesn’t it clear. FD: long $PSX for myself & clients Aug 01, 2012
Cult Figures http://t.co/7yDHHbqn Bill Gross explains why future equity returns won’t b as high as the past, unless it is due 2 inflation $$ Aug 01, 2012

International

The Crushing Burden of Old Debt http://t.co/SHXhIYbN True of many places; there are more debt claims than resources to pay them at par $$ Aug 04, 2012
Shock, Ore and Chinese Steel http://t.co/j7HBuIHI When you can no longer cover variable costs, time to shutter high cost capacity $$ Aug 02, 2012
RE: Europe hasn’t tried austerity yet. The debts are still growing as a % of GDP. $$ http://t.co/NbaAxKZN Aug 01, 2012
India’s Power Grid Collapses Again http://t.co/BmQKGyJZ “half of India’s population ? reportedly impacted” $$ Jul 31, 2012
Merkel Allies Harden Opposition to Granting Bank License to ESM http://t.co/cgca4EW4 Right hand taking back what left hand gave $$ Jul 31, 2012

TheStreet.com

How to Fix http://t.co/pm2ctIIK http://t.co/vJlqaUbx ?Good thoughts from @reformedbroker. My long comment: http://t.co/D7ZZ8tSE ?$TST $$ Jul 30, 2012
Thanks for writing this, Josh.? Cramer gave me my start in investment writing; I will be really bummed if $TST doesn’? http://t.co/g9QTXIWG Jul 30, 2012
How to Fix http://t.co/pm2ctIIK | The Reformed Broker http://t.co/DyLiX5AP Excellent advice, but it really may be too late for $TST $$ Jul 30, 2012

Politics

The Bad History Behind ?You Didn?t Build That? http://t.co/Yd8vyYlA Obama was deliberately ambiguous; prime motive was 2 dis entrepreneurs Aug 04, 2012
Obama authorizes secret US support for Syrian rebels http://t.co/s0PJ8Hx1 US allies itself w/Turks & Saudis against Alawite dictatorship $$ Aug 02, 2012
California Says Tax Revenue ?at Risk? From Facebook Drop http://t.co/ZLzQuFHE Normal 4 bad surprises 2 happen 2 those w/liberal acctg $$ Aug 02, 2012
Protesters Break Into Nuclear Complex http://t.co/yhn1WRvV Gotta admire the tenacity of a bunch of aged Catholic old-style liberals $$ Aug 02, 2012
Republicans Buoyed by Freshmen Seek Rewrite of Tax System http://t.co/TE8HeV3s SImplify, flatten, elim deductions/credits 4 corp/indiv $$ Aug 02, 2012
Postal Service to Miss $5.5B Payment to US Treasury http://t.co/zcgaQDWa Raid Employee benefits, or raise stamp, $UPS & $FDX prices? $$ Jul 31, 2012
The Man Who Saved Capitalism http://t.co/6qBtGnXI Milton Friedman did many good things, but saying he saved Capitalism is hagiography $$ Jul 31, 2012
Indirectly, tax $$ would fund principal reductions RT @diana_olick: #Obama gets a big NO on slashing #mortgage debt: http://t.co/N1vHNnDj Jul 31, 2012
Punctuation Nerds Stopped by Obama Slogan, ‘Forward.’ http://t.co/uRjpoBdq An ! would have worked better. What state’s motto is Forward? Jul 31, 2012
Why Capitalism Has an Image Problem http://t.co/xQIwll6s We need to save capitalism from capitalists *&* the enemies of capitalism $$ 😉 Jul 30, 2012
US loves cops and firefighters – but not their pensions http://t.co/ioSglMne The pension cost is 2high, and politicians ignore the cost $$ Jul 29, 2012
@MikeImbery Then explain why we support anti-freedom governments that support our political aims. Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, etc. Jul 29, 2012
That last tweet was meant to highlight the dual nature of US foreign policy, & while it is not lily white, it is better than alternatives $$ Jul 29, 2012
Charles Hill: The Empire Strikes Back http://t.co/9oY16P9A The US is an anti-empire providing freedom, so long as its aims endure $$ Jul 29, 2012

Other

I also don’t do #FF often but I ask my followers to follow @japhychron Aug 04, 2012
Just spent a fun 90 minutes discussing economics, banking, etc. w/ @japhychron in beautiful Ellicott City. It was a great time $$ Aug 03, 2012
WSJ home page is causing Firefox to lock up as it absorbs more and more memory until the system dies. Anyone else experiencing that? $$ Aug 03, 2012
This article reinforces the notion that the mainstream media does not understand conservative evangelicals. Chick-Fi? http://t.co/WoANS3bi Aug 03, 2012
Will Publishers Perish? http://t.co/2qveRV4I Arends: As self-publishing gets easier, the book business faces a major shake-out $$ #yup Aug 02, 2012
WSJ Olympic Medal Tracker http://t.co/P4kKLdcb #WSJLondon2012 Interesting graphical depiction of the Olympic Medal Standings $$ Aug 01, 2012
My Education in Home Schooling http://t.co/jXFF2BTT She makes more fuss than most homeschoolers do; it is easy to beat public schools $$ Jul 29, 2012

Comments

RE: @bloombergview Simplify: “Customer account segregation should never be compromised.” Fits in a tweet. $$ http://t.co/e6TnFVbT Aug 02, 2012
@kaylatausche Buffett doesn’t believe in the Sabbath, but likes high-margin focused entrepreneurs w/ethics. Many Christians buy there $$ Aug 01, 2012
@kaylatausche 1 logical buyer for those wanting 2 preserve corporate culture: Buffett. Has 1-2 retail businesses closed on the Sabbath $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I though the same when I looked at the moon this evening over Ellicott City, MD. $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I hear you, and think similarly. If nothing else, the “terms of Service” will become tighter. Love your work, Izabella. $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska Okay, it’s not a perfect solution, but it is good enough that 10% of the time, the account has been suspended when I try it $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I regularly use the “block & report spam” feature of twitter to get rid of trolls and spammers, shouldn’t that solve it? $$ Aug 01, 2012
@sandbergadvisor Ding, you were the first to get Wisconsin’s motto, “Forward” $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon On medals, original link: http://t.co/h8cEhIHo ultimately coming from story here: http://t.co/8C2vQR3P Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon “The value of the materials in the gold medal is about $644, silver about $330, and bronze about $4.71” http://t.co/6MWND6Mz $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon The silver medal is 92.5% silver, the rest copper. Bronze medal is 97% copper, 2.5% zinc & 0.5% tin. S/b “Copper medal” $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon oops, here’s the metallic composition: http://t.co/SP3zXzs9 The 2012 gold medal is 92.5% silver, 1.34% gold, rest copper. $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon At the relative prices, that’s a gold medals table, assuming the medals are the same size and are purely that metal $$ Jul 31, 2012
“The solution is simple. Raise stamp prices, and the fees they charge UPS & Fedex for “going the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/0zaUbegb $$ Jul 31, 2012
@munilass I’ve reviewed enough crisis books that I can’t read them anymore; I scan 2c what they observe & ignore $$ http://t.co/Zy8nfeZh Jul 31, 2012
@TFMkts I agree; I’ve written about the problems w/levered ETFs. Kass is big enough, he can short bonds directly if he wants. Not hard $$ Jul 30, 2012
I know and agree; I’ve written about it. Suspect he shorts bonds directly RT @tradingpoints: you can’t hold $TBT on that time-frame – wow – Jul 30, 2012
“Small cap Japan: low valuations, low leverage, low expectations.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/LfuLH8WD Jul 30, 2012
RE: @CharlesSizemore I think you gave a good summary.? Here’s my more bearish take: http://t.co/1gW2Js52? http://t.co/LVwWQEJj Jul 30, 2012
I disagree w/Kass here, though he is generally a clever investor. He is also more of a trader than most… http://t.co/BpynxRQR Jul 30, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 28 July 2012 by David Merkel

LIBOR

Six ways big banks screwed Grandma http://t.co/ltisCJ2P Poorly argued. It’s as if LIBOR could be manipulated without reaction. $$ Jul 28, 2012
Fidelity Joins BlackRock in Weighing Libor Action Against Banks http://t.co/9DKR48NY This isn’t as easy as it seems; much 2 prove $$ Jul 26, 2012

Eurozone

Draghi Said to Hold Talks With Weidmann on Bond Purchases http://t.co/SunXLadO If the Buba plays ball, the sky is the limit. $$ #inflation Jul 28, 2012
Draghi Says ECB Will Do What?s Needed to Preserve Euro http://t.co/xc4iQ9ji Uncertain that the ECB will buy lots of Italian & Spanish debt Jul 26, 2012
Europe Is Cheap?So Why Can?t I Pull the Trigger? http://t.co/yHGHjmoN Wait until things stop getting worse $$ Jul 25, 2012
Spanish, Italian Notes Rise on Bets for ESM Enhancement http://t.co/3CBLXOmK ?The idea of making the ESM a bank is a game changer,? $$ #no Jul 25, 2012
Spain to struggle to fund 2012 debt crunch http://t.co/iOefCfxz How long until the next last minute rescue? 10-yr yields over 7.5% $$ Jul 25, 2012
Europe Stymies Private Equity as Corporate Buyouts Stall http://t.co/QXNGEnQj If the banks won’t lend, private equity deals don’t fly $$ Jul 24, 2012
Hollande Transaction Tax Drives Investor Quest for Loopholes http://t.co/hDvZnQfL New trans tax drives investors2use contracts4difference Jul 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Government Debts Hit Record http://t.co/o9lXW7f1 Govt debt / GDP 4 whole E-Zone goes from 87.3% @ 12/11 -> 88.2% @ 3/12 $$ Jul 24, 2012
Greece Back at Center of Euro Crisis as Spain Yields Soar http://t.co/GLCWfi9e IMF/Core begins to doubt ability to hold it together $$ Jul 23, 2012
YIKES: Spanish Yields Are Surging To Record Highs http://t.co/qIQhvlUE Time 4 the Germans to buy summer homes in Spain $$ #evercloserunion Jul 23, 2012

US Politics

There. MMF reform that works, fit into a single tweet. $$ 🙂 Jul 27, 2012
Let MMFs keep a stable NAV, pass through losses thru unit reduction if real NAV<.995, reset real NAV @ 1.0025. Runs would strengthen NAV $$ Jul 27, 2012
Why Investors Are Dumping Money Market Funds For Short-Duration ETFs http://t.co/TNEpH9F9 My point: treat MMFs like modified ETFs $$ Jul 27, 2012
Maryland Governor Defends ‘Millionaires’ Tax’, Denies Job Losses http://t.co/yqfVRYCB Can bend rules, since MD is next 2 DC, which slurps $$ Jul 27, 2012
Drilling Strains Rural Roads http://t.co/2tUr6bJY Simple solution: tell energy companies you will not repair roads. They will do it $$ Jul 27, 2012
Treasury Eyes Funds Hidden Overseas http://t.co/g38s8z1c IRS goes after foreign trusts, seems 2ba piddling amount of money 2 go after $$ Jul 27, 2012
Wrong: How2Break NRA?s Grip on Politics: Michael R. Bloomberg http://t.co/I9vm6KKg The Ethanol lobby is a lot weaker than the gun lobby $$ Jul 27, 2012
Estate Tax: Ezra Klein is Wrong! http://t.co/1o5sumfN Never trust anyone whose profession starts w/an “A.” 😉 Accts, Attys, Advisors &c $$ Jul 26, 2012
Making the Rich Poorer Doesn?t Enrich the Middle Class http://t.co/fvsUgDfk The govt exists to grow itself until we die. Sad but true $$ Jul 26, 2012
The gender wage gap is a myth http://t.co/cNpTi1uZ Diana Furchtgott-Roth makes the same case that many economists have since the 70s $$ Jul 26, 2012
New Geithner disclosures further cloud his record http://t.co/heblaDAH Geithner was point man 4the Fed on derivatives. Dropped ball $$ Jul 26, 2012
Justice Scalia Disputes Accuracy Of ‘Leak’ http://t.co/OMVCtlAg Wide-ranging interview of Scalia, whose juridical impact may outlive him $$ Jul 25, 2012
Former Citigroup CEO Weill Says Banks Should Be Broken Up http://t.co/zftFGEQ6 Good, he changed his view, my view changed on that also $$ Jul 25, 2012
10 Everyday Items That Cost Way More Because of US Taxes http://t.co/KjXUu8Im Interesting list, mostly comprised of protectionist taxes $$ Jul 25, 2012
The hidden Mitt Romney http://t.co/rPVcQR7C Romney & Obama have one thing in common: the more you know about them, the less you like them $$ Jul 24, 2012
Romney to Attack Obama on Leaks, Defense Cuts http://t.co/hiCrTCtX ?the greatest force for good the world has ever known? US naivete $$ Jul 24, 2012
Scalia Offers Up 57 Varieties for Interpreting Legal Texts http://t.co/sSdqUE1m His manifesto on originalism/textualism $$ Jul 23, 2012

China

Lies, Damned Lies, and China’s Economic Statistics http://t.co/Fqpn8YMS I have some skepticism to US statistics, how much more China? $$ Jul 27, 2012
Xi Jinping Millionaire Relations Reveal Fortunes of Elite http://t.co/iFz7e6dg Communist Party members have access2loans & IPO allocations Jul 27, 2012
Capital Outflows Chime With China?s Bears http://t.co/GIaMbM8g “any currency exchange >$2,000 needs to have a prior reservation made.? $$ Jul 25, 2012

Companies

Alierta Abandons Dividend Penchant to Save Telefonica http://t.co/AHhbFucX Now more interested in $TEF, good cashflow, div shld resume $$ Jul 26, 2012
Unilever Warns of Worsening Economy http://t.co/wscXplAV Global economy is weak, even for staple goods. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Zynga?s ?Draw Something? Isn?t a Pretty Picture http://t.co/nSrHWTG3 Always be wary of fads that have no balance sheet $$ Jul 26, 2012
Sanofi Dengue Vaccine Is Promising http://t.co/7EFL5ioC Good news. Perhaps Dengue Fever may be conquered for the good of mankind $$ Jul 26, 2012
Industrias Bachoco Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results http://t.co/n0amblWp Tough read, Q looks good, US acq prob paying off FD:+ $IBA $$ Jul 25, 2012
Assurant Reports Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/jdaB09Kh FIring on all cylinders, & shrinking share count FD: + $AIZ $$ Jul 25, 2012
Warren Buffett: Great Investor, Lousy Insurance Salesman? http://t.co/4KfZNNP3 Poor article; Buffett is very intelligent insurance exec $$ Jul 25, 2012
link 4 last tweet: http://t.co/sj75tC5q You could short the 2.6% bonds and go long default protection for an almost risk-free profit. $$ Jul 25, 2012
Someone Is Getting Really Nervous About HP?s Debt http://t.co/Zqj1xEhp If you look at bonds vs CDS, bonds aren’t panicking. FD: + $HPQ $$ Jul 25, 2012
Contra: Campbell Chases Millennials With Lentils Madras Curry http://t.co/MBdpXGsJ @ $3/pouch I don’t c a mkt 4 gourmet instant soup $$ Jul 24, 2012
Google buys Sparrow for ‘new Gmail project’ http://t.co/q0i3TfZv Sell your company 2 $GOOG 4 $$ . Get new tasks while old technology dies Jul 24, 2012
Iraq blacklists Chevron for Kurdish oil deals http://t.co/23opiYYs Not as big as it seems $CVX has no biz in Arab Iraq $$ FD: +CVX Jul 24, 2012

Rest of the World

North Korean Mystery Woman Is Leader Kim Jong Un?s Wife http://t.co/CK8seZPc I find it optimistic that he wants to live a normal life $$ Jul 26, 2012
Global economy?s cure is worse than the disease http://t.co/isJuL3rn Indirectly suggests the best policy would be benign neglect $$ Jul 25, 2012
Cyber Attacks on Activists Traced to FinFisher Spyware of Gamma http://t.co/ZITxw1bu Practice safe computing; scan for rogue processes $$ Jul 25, 2012

Public Radio

Public Radio International acquired by Boston public broadcaster WGBH http://t.co/Mck9Gx0n Interesting when a non-profit corp gets bought $$ Jul 26, 2012
If it is the same, could NPR or the Corporation 4 Public Broadcasting sell out also? Buffett could give them a good home. Or the Kochs 😉 $$ Jul 26, 2012
Grew up in the insurance world, so I’ve seen non-profit (mutuals) buy another mutual or stock company, but is it the same w/WBGH buying PRI? Jul 26, 2012
Renaming 2 Private Radio International 😉 RT @timjeby: Big Public Radio News: WGBH in Boston to acquire Public Radio International #pubmedia Jul 26, 2012

Municipal Bonds

For further reading consider: Some perspective on the recent California bankruptcies by @munilass aka Bond Girl $$ http://t.co/2jwUeNOX Jul 26, 2012
Muni Blues Worry Investors http://t.co/r4VvKP4g Municipalities aiming4 strategic default face challenges in courts; favor bondholders $$ Jul 26, 2012
Some perspective on the recent California bankruptcies http://t.co/RFAgUt5u @munilass on how unusual wud b4 muni bonds 2not pay principal $$ Jul 24, 2012

Federal Reserve

Bernanke the unready http://t.co/6ppUDOMl Fed is impotent, but can’t admit it. Bernanke is wrong on monetary policy near 0%. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Fed strives to replenish depleted toolkit http://t.co/Yhy4pMy2 Doing the same thing, over & over again, but expecting different results $$ Jul 25, 2012
Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn’t Pick Up Soon http://t.co/2TddWIZz Doing the same thing over&over again&expecting different results $$ Jul 24, 2012
Coming: The End of Fiat Money http://t.co/jHhnlPs0 Nice try. Lot of good stuff 2 read here, but no clincher 4 the return of gold $$ Jul 23, 2012

US Housing

By October of 2005 the prices of residential real estate peaked, which led to most of the leverage unwind that was about to happen. $$ Jul 25, 2012
Office of Financial Research Annual Report http://t.co/w9Xm4i9J Pp 8-9, first difficulty: by 2005 it was too late to stop the crisis $$ Jul 25, 2012
Is This What a Housing Bottom Looks Like? http://t.co/pSwtryX4 Lazy recovery, as people sell when they can avoid losses $$ Jul 27, 2012
Wrong: Reverse mortgages as popular as IRAs in 10 years http://t.co/pp7qoG63 Must have equity & creditworthy rev mtge lenders. Complex 2 $$ Jul 25, 2012
Home Values Post First Year-Over-Year Increase Since 2007 http://t.co/VHFnG83k Prices rising on the low end; higher priced problematic $$ Jul 24, 2012
Subprime Rally Building as Dealers Sop Up Supply http://t.co/s7BVK0v2 Combination of yield lust & rising housing prices drive up bonds $$ Jul 24, 2012

Miscellaneous

Pig Tissue Seen Fixing Injury That Sidelined Lin http://t.co/ys0kWDNb New tech uses pig tissue undoes painful damage from torn meniscus $$ Jul 27, 2012
Can a Food for Cows Make Healthier Snickerdoodles? http://t.co/o8vF4h5e Adding some DDG 2baked goods adds protein & fiber, good yes? $$ Jul 26, 2012
Closing In on a Cure for Vision Loss http://t.co/QCNZohN7 Testing “gene therapy, stem-cell therapy & a modified version of vitamin A” $$ Jul 24, 2012
Will the world’s greatest startup machine ever stall? http://t.co/R1wFzGsM Long interview w/President of Stanford re Silicon Valley ties $$ Jul 24, 2012
Breadbaskets of Last Resort See Once-in-a-Lifetime Prices http://t.co/A0AePuJx Focuses on upper Midwest; great time to have good corn $$ Jul 24, 2012
MIT Researchers’ `Cool’ Idea http://t.co/SMPitSjO Way cool, allowing 4 cheaper, better milk in rural areas where power is spotty. $$ Jul 24, 2012
Contra: The One Capitalism That Dare Not Speak Its Name http://t.co/jaZfeluf State Capitalism more prone 2 bubbles than laissez-faire $$ Jul 24, 2012
America’s Energy Situation In 15 Maps http://t.co/lw0vOwnc Refining, production, prices, intl concerns, natgas, crude, coal, solar, wind $$ Jul 23, 2012
THE DEFINING DECADE: Why You Can’t Afford To Waste Your Twenties http://t.co/8gl9RqGG Early success compounds; so does early failure $$ Jul 23, 2012
Lobbying Works! Big Spenders Reap Big Stock Gains Says Trennert http://t.co/2vsJyEXB But what happens if the US Government has to shrink $$ Jul 23, 2012
Who Really Invented the Internet? http://t.co/LkvW1xwM Many did, & they were standing on the shoulders of giants. $$ #ittakesavillage 😉 Jul 23, 2012

Market Dynamics

Fidelity Targets Securities Lending http://t.co/stEvATII The buyside is beginning to fight back against the trust & investment banks $$ Jul 27, 2012
Study: High-Speed Trading Hurts Long-term Investors http://t.co/ZhMhkiCG This probably affects those w/higher turnover more $$ Jul 27, 2012
Currencies: from Nullifying to Negative http://t.co/lxqwZZKw What is the game? To make money, or avoid losing a lot? Neg int rates a pain $$ Jul 25, 2012
Bond Trading Loses Some Swagger Amid Upheaval http://t.co/l93Vp7xL Except 4 the most liquid corporates, need broker2find liquidity/bonds $$ Jul 25, 2012

Comments

Our Olympic Gold in Wit $$ RT @TheLondonWhale: RT take a bow @ReformedBroker: Switzerland tough to beat in gold vaulting Jul 28, 2012
“Cultural change cannot be achieved by outsiders, in 1 generation, no matter how much $$ gets spent.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/5eBdsBlO Jul 27, 2012
@brettsimonson Think the direction I would have headed was public policy, which involves a finer view of asset/liab mgmt, run avoidance etc Jul 27, 2012
@brettsimonson Hi Brett, no part 2 from what I can see. Very disorganized that week — no power for a week Jul 27, 2012
Ditto, well-deserved $$ RT @ReformedBroker: we love you, simone RT @SimoneFoxman: Yay, 5K! Thanks for following, everyone!! Jul 27, 2012
@munilass Also, if a kid was disconsolate for a while, before 2AM it was mine. After, it was hers. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass When the family was young, my wife & I had a deal. I took midnight feedings, she took the early morning feedings. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass My house works like this: I work late b/c it is quiet. My wife who homeschools the kids gets up early b/c it is quiet. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass I know many classes of bonds and other fixed income instruments. But I only know enough about munis to be dangerous. Thus I ask. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass Decided to review the book “Investing in the High Yield Municipal Market” by Triet Nguyen. If I have Qs, can I ask you? Jul 27, 2012
@e_d_sanders Both parties stand for different shades of nothing. They give rhetoric to their bases, do little, and cling to power. $$ Jul 27, 2012
RT @Convertbond: Sell the US equity rally hard when Spain’s 2s \ 10s curve starts to re-flatten #Government #Bonds 2 year & 10 year … Jul 26, 2012
“”Of course this food is organic. We used Organic Chemistry to create it.”” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/CvYhIQ7p $$ $DF Jul 26, 2012
Happy 2b your 1st subscriber $$ RT @SNLFinancial: Follow SNL Financial reporters so you?re always in the know: http://t.co/Rbwi9Jn3 Jul 26, 2012
“Why we need to dismantle the Democrat & Republican parties: the national budget slaves for local interests” Merkel http://t.co/gllFMcec $$ Jul 26, 2012
A weather forecaster for either WBAL or WTOP said that Maryland gets a derecho once every 5-10 years. Two in one year? Hope not. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Just what we need, another derecho $$ RT @BloombergNews: Severe storms, possible derecho forecast for Northeast US http://t.co/XPGdJQoC Jul 26, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Not worthy to be read $$ http://t.co/TsRQZdTI Jul 26, 2012
RE: Loads of 12% coming out mean that only 88% of the money is going to work for the investor.? Doesn’t matter where ? http://t.co/hJgSPGrT Jul 26, 2012
Commented on The Economist | Monetary policy: Bernanke the unready http://t.co/rsqLZm7A Jul 26, 2012
“Marriage civilizes, & gives us some hope that he will normalize N. Korea. He lived outside NK 4?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/uxDl62iM $$ Jul 26, 2012
RT @ReformedBroker: RT @jamielissette: *MOODY’S CHANGES OUTLOOK ON 17 GERMAN BANKING GROUPS TO NEGATIVE Jul 25, 2012
“For what it is worth, that’s the way Canada does it. Income taxed @ FMV @ death. No estate tax.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lQx4RjYN $$ Jul 25, 2012
RE: @CSMonitor The book “Hungry Ghosts” documents The Great Leap Forward very well. Worth a read. $$ http://t.co/LQ5dChjQ Jul 25, 2012
“It would be cleaner to tax unrealized capital gains at death, and eliminate the estate tax.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/GqPiMZ5r $$ Jul 25, 2012
“Rating agencies are supposed to be behind the curve. They rate over the full credit cycle?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/z80RTQCv $$ Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders He could have included 1 or 2 more words & it would have been crystal clear. I think the ambiguity was deliberate. I cud bwrong Jul 25, 2012
“Don’t open suspicious attachments. Use procexp to review processes. Disable processes you can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/PUaCZKOf $$ Jul 25, 2012
“When computers screen applicants, a skills shortage emerges. Computers seek current perfection, not?” David_Merkel http://t.co/HVRm6HOP $$ Jul 25, 2012
“A case where so many things went wrong, it is amazing that they almost won. Really, they were?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/hJcw4tCX $$ Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders I’m voting third party; I don’t like the GOP either; it’s obvious that no one man builds infrastructure; not a point 2 make Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders It’s not a misquote. Read the two paragraphs in context; he is downplaying individual initiative. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp I copied the quote from the WH website. Given what O said in the above that, both interpretations are legitimate. Could b clearer. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp and I appreciate your comment. I like those that comment, and even those that disagree with me highly. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp Doesn’t matter to me. Concentrating effort is significant and deserves a reward, not condescension. $$ Jul 25, 2012
RT @pdacosta: Crisis contained, to inhabited areas. RT @SJosephBurns: “The Subprime Crisis will not affect the economy overall.” – Ben B … Jul 25, 2012
RT @ritholtz: WSJ reporting ?Federal Reserve moving closer to action to spur growth” Bond buying, rate guidance, lower reserve rate amon … Jul 24, 2012
RE: @bloombergview You’re still going to need LIBOR, however calculated, for existing contracts. Replacement will be ? http://t.co/smOdgXbd Jul 24, 2012
“Ethics comes before competence. Doesn’t matter how good you are, if you are unethical. The?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/6bgcT6nT $$ Jul 23, 2012
RT @AmityShlaes: “The post office ought to be self supporting. At present business men are deluged with useless mail.” — Calvin Coolidg … Jul 22, 2012
@niubi No, b/c many babies do not sleep through the night @ 3 months Jul 21, 2012
If I could ship the rain in Maryland 2 the Midwest, I would. But Maryland farmers r having a good year. Corn looks normal & prices r high $$ Jul 21, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 21 July 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

Indebted Valencia asks Spain government for help, markets jolted http://t.co/lDkPC9U2 Better to let a region fail, than bail them out $$ Jul 21, 2012
Favoring the French, a lesson in perception from bonds http://t.co/qa5CJEgL France’s advantage: big, which is weak 4 creditworthiness $$ Jul 21, 2012
Estonia is admirable for their courage, though I can’t imagine why you would want to be part of the Eurozone NOW $$ Jul 20, 2012
Krugmenistan vs. Estonia http://t.co/1tJssWqG Post private debt bubble, Estonia froze pensions, lowered govt wages ~10% & + VAT by 2% $$ Jul 20, 2012
Demand for Spanish Debt Continues to Evaporate http://t.co/TMdIV05Y Piecemeal solutions continue to fail as 10-year rises over 7% $$ Jul 19, 2012
Merkel Says Bailout Liability Undecided http://t.co/HuggOawS “We always get the majority we need,” Ms. Merkel said. $$ Jul 16, 2012

US Economic Policy

FSOC Supports Overhaul to Trim Risk of Money-Market Runs http://t.co/nD1CKeqv Federal Govt owned by the banks, who want to axe a rival $$ Jul 21, 2012
Let States Do the Tax-Collecting Dirty Work http://t.co/Uq1LmPwI States could decide how to tax & remit to the Feds. +1 $$ Jul 21, 2012
How the Elites Built America?s Economic Wall http://t.co/ifCcBhX6 Interesting take on how some “blue state” policies promote inequality $$ Jul 20, 2012
Treasury Auctions 10-Year TIPS at Record Low Negative Yield http://t.co/XvnQmLtg Lock in a loss against CPI to avoid a poss bigger loss $$ Jul 20, 2012
The Coming Defense Crack-Up http://t.co/JKZycDO4 If it forced us to reprioritize Defense & other Federal spending, could b good thing $$ Jul 19, 2012
D&R parties are rival teams @ same country club $$ RT @ampressman: @AlephBlog Yeah, who else would do such a thing? http://t.co/yN4GyGat Jul 19, 2012
The GOP’s Solyndra Wing http://t.co/eNvLU1Wb Republicans who love corporate welfare; this is not merely a problem of the Democrats $$ Jul 19, 2012
Post Office Might Miss Retirees’ Payment http://t.co/YvpRVLWe Draining pension funds is a stopgap, not a real solution. Raise prices. $$ Jul 19, 2012
QE, negative yields and the paradox of thrift http://t.co/oUM0hkI0 QE not only raises asset prices, but liability values as well $$ #fail Jul 18, 2012
At a Wharton conf 22 years ago, I said neg rates were possible b/c of deflation combined w/need to pay to store cash. Instructor laughed. $$ Jul 18, 2012
U.S. Public-Pension Shortfall $4.6 Trillion, Budget Group Says http://t.co/Y4fq7tj0 Probably a little high; Tsy discount rates severe $$ Jul 18, 2012
How Much Could States Benefit From Online Sales Tax? http://t.co/9d3eYZz4 Would bail out a decent amount of many states’ deficits $$ Jul 18, 2012
Wrong: Industrial Production in U.S. Rises in Sign of Resilience http://t.co/RfNT4hM6 Data revisions > current period estimates beat $$ Jul 17, 2012
Ponzi Scheme? http://t.co/kU4Yx1CW Cities r going BK b/c they didn’t adequately project their funding needs?will community ass’ns b next? $$ Jul 17, 2012
Calpers Misses Big on Investment Target http://t.co/HIRzXnw1 Assets < Liabs; A: +1% L: +7.5, plus val adj from 7.75%. Assets <<< Liabs $$ Jul 17, 2012
Romneyconomics – Good but incomplete http://t.co/6n869J9j Generally agree, but shoddy logic in the middle about GDP & debts $$ Jul 16, 2012
Treasuries Doomsday Is Four Years Away for Vanguard http://t.co/nAz67Q3k Vanguard is largest private owner of US debt @ $148 billion $$ Jul 16, 2012

Miscellaneous

I get amused when people misspell Warren Buffett’s name as Buffet. But a high profile organization: @Bloomberg? $$ http://t.co/NRsc8plk Jul 20, 2012
New Sleeping Pill Thwarts Brain?s Up-All-Night Neurons http://t.co/6I0LglFG $MRK Blocks a tiny group of receptors that keep body alert $$ Jul 20, 2012
Fore Sale http://t.co/mkUeWlVb On the plunging prices for houses where you also have to pay annual membership dues for the golf club $$ Jul 20, 2012
Task named editor in chief of Yahoo Finance http://t.co/7aiATNa6 Congratulations 2 @atask ! Great job @ important financial web resource $$ Jul 19, 2012
New Yahoo CEO Mayer is pregnant http://t.co/Kq7ICTcD Happy for the couple; risk to put off kids into late 30s; hope her delivery is easy $$ Jul 17, 2012
Contra: The Secret Behind Romney?s Magical IRA http://t.co/uQHbSbWc Misses preferred shares & valuation issues; better work elsewhere $$ Jul 16, 2012

Rest of the World

Japanese Consumers Reconsidering Rice Loyalty http://t.co/W4WuhvKj Food grown in Japan is suspect since Fukushima; foreign rice limited $$ Jul 20, 2012
Fast slowdown $$ RT @Thevalueteam: China?s steel and concrete sectors are indicative of something potentially wrong http://t.co/ufK0Vaob ^KM Jul 17, 2012
China’s Version of ‘Too Big to Fail’ http://t.co/tNKduuPn Never knew China had a CDO mkt; also suggests a private equity bubble in China $$ Jul 16, 2012

Market Dynamics

Here?s Another Indicator Pointing Toward Recession http://t.co/c3ImTeZF Sharp cuts in earnings estimates indicate a recession coming $$ Jul 21, 2012
Mortgage Bonds Yield Hopeful Signs on Housing Recovery http://t.co/gzm1Fefi A lot of disagreement over proper credit loss assumptions $$ Jul 20, 2012
Plotting a Securitization Sequel http://t.co/WE0uhTYI Don’t think securitizing rental payments will work. no property behind cashflow $$ Jul 20, 2012
Economic Fears Hurting Obama, Poll Indicates http://t.co/vq7JzIEe No surprise, there are few policies that work against debt deflation $$ Jul 20, 2012
Everyone Hates Treasurys Now http://t.co/LGYAIcTU That’s what makes it such a great trade @carney, w/many needing2invest 4 long liabs $$ Jul 20, 2012
Passel of articles on LIBOR-like scandals http://t.co/lQfSaOUE & http://t.co/64rzFL5q & http://t.co/GQJnUZZK Damages hard2prove $$ Jul 19, 2012
Failing to Connect the Boom to the Bust http://t.co/jrKGIVKs Surges in debt r associated w/booms in asset prices, vice-versa 4 busts $$ Jul 19, 2012
CMBS Leverage Most Since ?07 as Standards Loosen http://t.co/1R5FYTwb 4a long time I was a realtive fan of CMBS, but now I say: AVOID $$ Jul 18, 2012
They got hit by the shalestorm $$ RT @PlanMaestro: Wilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years Of Headwinds http://t.co/2TJMPDQ8 Jul 17, 2012
Contra: Libor Flaws Allowed Banks to Rig Rates Without Conspiracy http://t.co/khuqkHTr Does not proves its case; just hypotheticals $$ Jul 16, 2012
Negative Real Interest Rates: The Conundrum for Investment and Spending Policies http://t.co/OTDe5p9Y Policies should follow nomnl yields $$ Jul 16, 2012

Companies

Marissa Mayer: Google?s Chic Geek http://t.co/Ge3zFk1l Good background piece on new CEO of $YHOO. Q: Can a technologist make a good CEO? $$ Jul 16, 2012
Buffett Empowers Deputies by Raising Funds to $8 Billion http://t.co/6C3YO1Ml Note: buying smaller companies than WB does but still big $$ Jul 16, 2012

Comments

@jake_f My original tweet stems from CMBS-like structures that did not fare well, b/c underlying property economics was too volatile $$ Jul 20, 2012
@jake_f That’s a good point; if they use that structure, could work, but will they have high enough “interest rates” to absorb losses? $$ Jul 20, 2012
@jake_f @DavidSchawel It’s probably a little of both; housing prices improving on low end, but there is a huge demand for yield now $$ Jul 20, 2012
@historysquared US paid down much of their debts post-WWII, inflated away more Jul 20, 2012
RT @AmyResnick: RT @SimonCYWong: Entertaining cartoon primer on #Basel 3: What it is & why it is needed http://t.co/rM0zPNkM via @fo … Jul 20, 2012
“We home school. We replace the teacher. Superior to the public schools because one-on-one?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Hia2soVu $$ Jul 19, 2012
“Good for you, KD. Glad you are safe, and powered. I grew up in Wisconsin, so I was used to the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FjYt10DN $$ Jul 19, 2012
@jdstein I’m not saying those things aren’t in the LDS; those exist in other religions 2. It’s not what makes the LDS distinctive. Jul 19, 2012
@jdstein I am referring to the eighth and ninth paragraphs of the original article. Jul 19, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The virtues of Mormonism that the author thinks exist are not core to Mormonism. Romney knows well? http://t.co/qj5VH9gZ Jul 19, 2012
@kyles09 I’m in the Austrian School w/slight modification from the Santa Fe Institute Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Total share to wages down, profits up, well known since 1990. Profit margins will mean-revert someday $$ Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Ok, I get it, though my wage figure is a little higher. Real GDP rising @ 2.5%/yr vs real avg wages @ 1%/y Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist You might need to spill the calculation for me, I don’t see that. Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist At least for the average, no not stagnant, maybe not as good as post WWII, & it might be worth looking at median vs mean. $$ Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist and the CPI-U average is 2.51%, looks like about 1% real average wage growth, which doesn’t seem unreasonable. Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist looking at the AWI tables, http://t.co/Xy1cg1VZ it has almost doubled over that period – 3.47%/yr compounded $$ Jul 19, 2012
RE: @marketfolly They are all ruling out a depression scenario. Long Treasuries continue to rally; very contrarian. http://t.co/GumjLkeJ Jul 18, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Thanks for the old news; trouble is, kids need downtime, and our schools aren’t very good — your ? http://t.co/XBEWunfe Jul 18, 2012
@stockspot2000 Interesting, have not seen evernote before. Thanks. Jul 18, 2012
@footnoted Pension and healthcare systems will not be able to fund the obligations; lesser benefits will be paid. $$ Jul 18, 2012
Could we audit the gold at Fort Knox, also? Amazing secrecy there. http://t.co/cclHfpLk Jul 17, 2012
@mattyglesias Heard you on NPR this evening, please review http://t.co/kvzJmCXQ because it explains Romney’s IRA strategies. $$ Jul 18, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Fail: you did not mention the preferred stock. You did not do your homework. This is a perfect e? http://t.co/74HUrube Jul 16, 2012
@BarbarianCap I’m glad you like it; it works out to a minute per every 4 tweets — making it 1 of my shorter writing efforts for my blog $$ Jul 15, 2012
@BarbarianCap So far I have turned down a few book deals, mainly 4 time use reasons: asset management biz doesn’t support the family yet $$ Jul 15, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 13 July 2012 by David Merkel

Bond Markets

TIPS 20-Year 3.375 04/15/2032 166-21? / 0.00 -0-02+ / 0.002 15:09; They are trading flat to CPI 4 next 20 years http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK $$s Jul 13, 2012
Buffett Says Muni Bankruptcies Set to Climb as Stigma Lifts http://t.co/WBYjoUW1 Buffett’s claim is modest, but current trend is down $$ Jul 13, 2012
Indeed excellent RT @munilass: Excellent discussion of CA bankruptcies from @randalljensen http://t.co/iSEudKw5 Jul 13, 2012
Big Dealers Sweat as Swaps Face Reckoning http://t.co/iAmp2p4X Interest rate swaps should be vanilla enough to clear on exchanges $$ Jul 10, 2012

Politics

Financial Advice for Presidential Candidates http://t.co/MUqMOWNv Tips from Brett Arends for politicians on how to handle money. $$ Jul 14, 2012
Too clever $$ RT @hblodget Here’s One Of The Clever Financial Tricks That Mitt Romney Used To Become Dynastically Rich http://t.co/frz1hkxP Jul 13, 2012
Condi for VP? Mitt’s Done It Before http://t.co/ns1Kj6s7 Article makes a good case that MR could pick someone unexpected, as before $$ Jul 13, 2012
Chavez Hits Campaign Trail in Bid to Prove He?s Cancer-Free http://t.co/dQCPHEU2 Dream, Hugo; ur dying as your goals on Earth r dying $$ Jul 13, 2012
In Kansas, Stronger Mix of Ethanol http://t.co/Iv7LrQpA Economically and environmentally, corn-based ethanol is one big boondoggle $$ Jul 12, 2012
Peugeot to Close Plant http://t.co/uUvm4vNK If u make it difficult 4 employers 2 terminate workers, they will hesitate 2 create jobs $$ Jul 12, 2012
Social Security Hole Overwhelms Taxes, Cuts http://t.co/DLbk9MgD Analysis right, prescription wrong. Dumb comments by innumerate readers Jul 12, 2012
Company to acquire part of Marcus Hook refinery http://t.co/VTXySbbv Spending $75,000/job saved is dumb, even if you lock Braskem in. $$ Jul 12, 2012
A New, Improved Draft? No Thanks http://t.co/wH8fcpHx Conscripted labor of youths would be a false economy; work would b poorly done $$ Jul 11, 2012
And that leaves aside the constitutional & legal aspects of conscription in peacetime; I do not favor reviving the draft. $$ Jul 11, 2012
FBI warned Labor Department data might be leaked http://t.co/KpsZplxo Until DC pays up 4 some good quants, lots of games won’t b caught $$ Jul 11, 2012
Helpless President, Hopeless Congress http://t.co/aVq8gq5d Becomes difficult as the # of factions expands. t-party fractures consensus $$ Jul 11, 2012
No Sign of Voter Polarization Waning http://t.co/7FXzckao Good smile from Obama; dee red, dey get redder, dee bloo, dey get blooer $$ Jul 10, 2012
Obama Intensifies Tax Fight http://t.co/GG0C1Eo5 Looks like a recipe 4 gridlock. BTW, Obama needs2work on his smile, very pouty pics $$ Jul 10, 2012
“It is the regulators who require ratings, largely for purposes of measuring risk at financial institutions.” $$ http://t.co/nPGJNhjy Jul 10, 2012
America Already Is Europe http://t.co/BCK8nfnI similarities: growing government & equalizing incomes, cronyism, Uninformed electorate $$ Jul 10, 2012
LBJ?s Lessons for Obama http://t.co/ILtH9ZH9 Politics is the art of avoiding making permanent enemies & Obama is aloof 2 his enemies $$ Jul 09, 2012
States Interpret Ruling to Cut Medicaid Now http://t.co/ArPTMDPp File this under “unintended consequences;” some poor lose some care $$ Jul 09, 2012

LIBOR

NY Fed does not deserve much credit here. They only began investigating after leverage began collapsing… http://t.co/5WHt8Rrt Jul 13, 2012
They only began investigating after leverage began collapsing with bank off-balance sheet vehicles. $$ Jul 13, 2012
They were more concerned w/LIBOR being viewed as2high as primarily a systemic risk issue, & secondarily as a “is LIBOR accurate” issue. $$ Jul 13, 2012
In Libor Scandal, a Push For Criminal Charges http://t.co/eBkV0926 Outside the mainstream here; I don’t think criminal charges will work $$ Jul 13, 2012
Fed knew of Libor issue in 2007-08, proposed reforms http://t.co/hHUdUXnP The Fed moves slowly on regulatory issues. Very slowly. $$ Jul 11, 2012
Exactly & few say that $$ RT @carney: Running the numbers on March 13, 2006 Libor. I don’t see how Barclays could have manipulated it. Jul 11, 2012
So I Need To “Be An Adult” About Fraud Eh? http://t.co/t8owUMbU Yes Karl, being adult means waiting until fraud is proven b4 rash speech $$ Jul 10, 2012

Eurozone

Spanish Bank Borrowing from ECB Surges http://t.co/3cIvgaZu Feel sorry for the ECB; politicians do little so they try2do it alone $$ Jul 13, 2012
Euro-Zone Banks Still Hoarding http://t.co/3cIvgaZu The ECB can solve it all; just ask them they’ll tell you $$ Jul 13, 2012
Euro-Split Case Drives Danish Krone Appeal in Binary Bet http://t.co/tgPPZgKW People r willing to lock in losses 2 avoid bigger losses $$ Jul 11, 2012
Euro zone fragmenting faster than EU can act http://t.co/GpqSfYht “Deposit flight from Spanish banks has been gaining pace” $$ Jul 09, 2012
German anti-euro backlash gathers pace http://t.co/ZK57rBp3 The compromises hammered together r starting to come apart at the seams $$ Jul 09, 2012
Hollande Urged to Deliver Competitive Shock By Executives http://t.co/oZj9D7Jt Strange brew. Socialist pushes labor productivity rise $$ Jul 09, 2012
Spain Braces for Renewed Austerity as Tax Take Hemorrhages http://t.co/EIhmTfja I don’t suppose reducing govt size is an option here? $$ Jul 09, 2012
Spanish Yield Hits 7%, Stocks Slip http://t.co/QD7icJSX Okay, what new “baby step” toward mutualizing debts will the EZone try now? $$ Jul 09, 2012

Residential Housing

Blackstone, Hovnanian in Land Banking Deal http://t.co/KGx60uQs Too much $$ on the sidelines waiting to play in residential real estate Jul 13, 2012
Americans Living Larger As New-Home Sizes Defy Economy http://t.co/KjPRALro 1st ping I’ve seen on improvement for high-end home demand $$ Jul 13, 2012
Shadow inventory should also include those inverted on their mortgages, and will sell when prices are high enough. $$ http://t.co/HMT2rdci Jul 13, 2012
Housing Passes a Milestone http://t.co/x1rch8KR Lows seen in some areas, in low-end housing, look4those who waited4better prices2sell $$ Jul 12, 2012

Market Impact

Hedge Funds Trail Vanguard as Elliott Returns Atypical http://t.co/y91Uboqf Hedge funds seek yield & shun volatility, need fair weather $$ Jul 13, 2012
Watch income producing investments w/care RT @stockspot2000: $$ A Big Captain Hook in DividendLand http://t.co/mF9i6wnX $DVY $FED $PCEF Jul 12, 2012
Contra: Financial conditions are actually quite normal http://t.co/zSHolTk2 W/long Tsys yielding little, conditions r anything but normal $$ Jul 11, 2012
Not surprising in a time of debt deflation $$ RT @sm_sears: Finding a reliable counter party on Wall Street is becoming a rare commodity. Jul 11, 2012
Wall Streeters Lose $2 Billion in 401(k) Bet on Own Firms http://t.co/68BGLh8l They should know better $$ Suffering from proximity bias… Jul 09, 2012

Pensions

Common when low funded RT @BobBrinker: “San Bernardino has seen its workers? pension costs more than double since 2006” http://t.co/CLX7jhkC Jul 13, 2012
The new retirement age: 70 http://t.co/SdIVhjwE That is, if it isn’t 70+. Too few years to accrue savings vs many to spend over $$ Jul 11, 2012

Companies

Activist Investor Sets Sights on P&G http://t.co/5kGN1m5W $PG too big; Ackman bites off more than he can chew, IMO. $$ Jul 13, 2012
What went wrong at Supervalu (plenty) and who could buy it? (um?) http://t.co/9GfsQZZ6 Wonder what $SVU bulls @ Seeking Alpha r saying? $$ Jul 12, 2012
Apple Quitting Green Registry Leads to Purchasing Fallout http://t.co/Y4vOZ9Vm Interesting article, but the comments section is rabid $$ Jul 12, 2012
Silicon Valley’s Biggest Secret Technology Company — 7 Clues http://t.co/35rQYQuy One more clue: Its name starts with a “V.” $$ $V Jul 11, 2012
Billionaire Forrest Leads BlackRock Buying Iron Ore http://t.co/XNP3FGXv Only invest what u can afford2lose 4 an industry in oversupply $$ Jul 11, 2012
Patriot Bankruptcy May Leave Peabody Liable for Expense http://t.co/S0Upoai8 W/low natural gas prices, many coal companies suffer $$ Jul 11, 2012
Chesapeake retreat ends American energy land grab http://t.co/k7TsqNz3 Fracking creates new energy ecology, lower prices, less coal use $$ Jul 10, 2012

Central Banking

That’s what I thought also $$ RT @Alea_: so employee of Markets Group of the New York Fed doesn’t know how to use bloomberg #brilliant Jul 13, 2012
John B. Taylor: Monetary Policy and the Next Crisis http://t.co/9ajScehv Argues Fed kept rates2low in 2000s, leading2current crisis $$ Jul 11, 2012
What’s Wrong With the Federal Reserve? http://t.co/JxFpBArR ALLAN H. MELTZER explains y activist monetary & fiscal policies r failing $$ Jul 10, 2012
What if the Fed Throws a QE3 and Nobody Comes? http://t.co/kU3N83aX Hussman:”The way out is2restructure bad debt instead of rescuing it.” $$ Jul 09, 2012
Dealers Declining Bernanke Twist Invitation http://t.co/ZGVObmE1 Fed eats large % of long Tsys, dealers get into act front-running them $$ Jul 09, 2012
Fed Weighs Revamped Monetary Report as Guide to Policy http://t.co/PXGKNfSv No, @federalreserve, ur not unclear 2 us; just bad $$ policy Jul 09, 2012

Miscellaneous

Anne-Marie Slaughter on having it all http://t.co/bz7oQly4 No one can have it all; life is a series of choices 4 men & women $$ Jul 13, 2012
The death of cash http://t.co/aCoVfmsP Few technologies die totally; we have phonographs, tube mikes, AM radio. $$ will continue smaller Jul 12, 2012
Agreed, cash is a form of freedom RT @DavidBCollum: @AlephBlog Cashless society should be feared. Jul 12, 2012
Cocoa Grader: Hard Job, Sweet Perks http://t.co/wn8YXGVt Becoming a cocoa beans grader is ~4x harder than passing the NY State Bar exam Jul 12, 2012
A Cut Above: In These Knife Fights, Only Pride Gets Wounded http://t.co/xPvWlxA9 Very American & weird. Very, very weird. $$ #enjoy Jul 12, 2012
Wall Street’s Secret Weapon for Getting an Edge http://t.co/UJtMPEJu Testosterone injections to feel great & b dumb as a teenage boy $$ Jul 11, 2012
Climate was HOTTER in Roman, medieval times than now http://t.co/cc5fNyyI “cooling effect of orbital shifting on the climate” $$ Jul 11, 2012
Congratulations to one of the best financial bloggers still active $$ RT @EddyElfenbein: Crossing Wall Street turns seven years old today. Jul 11, 2012
Does This Smell Clean to You? http://t.co/pT1qlfxg There r many new scents giving sense of clean: ginger, hibiscus, greens, jasmine.. $$ Jul 11, 2012
Air Conditioning, Blessed Invention http://t.co/TSvTonfJ A most significant invention; no server farms w/o air conditioning $$ Jul 11, 2012
Interesting posts at Pepsico blogs in how $PEP is trying to sell snacks in China http://t.co/U6S3rGoT & http://t.co/IpkmsmKL $$ Jul 11, 2012
Last Amateur Bannister Is No LeBron Chasing Olympic Ideal http://t.co/Nwi4173U Last of the true amateurs, he breaks the 4-minute mile $$ Jul 11, 2012
Living Cells Show How to Fix the Financial System http://t.co/li0tmyHJ Healthy biological systems inspire economics systems $$ Jul 11, 2012
How the Mormons Make Money http://t.co/BAi5CF9W Really about how the Mormon “church” has significant businesses that make lots of money $$ Jul 11, 2012
Game Written by a 14-Year-Old Passes Angry Birds as Top Free iPhone App http://t.co/fAGtex2A Bubble Ball popular & Mom helps out $$ Jul 09, 2012

Rest of the World

Banks play cat-and-mouse with Beijing to comply with rules http://t.co/Nin3k8xH Banks are the weak link of the Chinese economy $$ Jul 12, 2012
Hit at home, China’s ghost fleet sails high seas http://t.co/aGSF13Ue Are there any more ways to increase oversupply of shipping? $$ Jul 11, 2012
Canadian Banks Seen Superior by Regulator Surviving Global Shock http://t.co/rKNfUc2M When housing prices fall in Canada will b tested $$ Jul 11, 2012
Eric Schmidt: The Great Firewall of China will fall http://t.co/N3vm0IuL You can’t build a sophisticated economy… w/active censorship $$ Jul 10, 2012
Norway Banks Under Pressure as Asset-Bubble Risks Swell http://t.co/BcHyayIQ Norwegians have never had such a high % of debt/net income $$ Jul 09, 2012
Tokyo Considers Buying Islands China Claims http://t.co/vWUmR6Zr Another potentialflashpoint in Asia, though war is impossible 😉 $$ Jul 09, 2012

Economics

Contra: The problem with ?structural? explanations for U.S. unemployment http://t.co/32zfqXyW Foreign competition limits job creation $$ Jul 11, 2012
Low-Paid Grads On Tight Budgets Switching to Discounters http://t.co/v4kEfPMq B4 going to college, ask what future employers might like $$ Jul 10, 2012
Murdoch, Moguls Head to Sun Valley as Mobile Shapes Media http://t.co/YFVQcQwm Content is King, can u squeeze dat onto my dinky device? $$ Jul 10, 2012
Fracking claims an unusual victim $PCX $$ RT @BloombergNews: BREAKING: Patriot Coal Bankruptcy Filing Said To Come as Soon as Today Jul 09, 2012
Patent ‘Troll’ Tactics Spread http://t.co/MECQeMFO Tour through grand diversity of games companies play w/patents 4 offense & defense $$ Jul 09, 2012

Finance Companies

SAC?s Cohen Joins Loeb Starting Reinsurer for Capital http://t.co/8aSjsa3w Adv: Captive $$. Disadv: Can lose $$ if underwriting is poor 🙁 Jul 10, 2012
JPMorgan Silence on Risk Model Spurs Calls for Disclosure http://t.co/btmeSkbM Banks should share their risk modelsw/regulators yearly $$ Jul 10, 2012
Indentured Students Rise as Loans Corrode College Ticket http://t.co/VvNosGcC Students tricked into debt-slavery “pursuing their bliss” $$ Jul 09, 2012
Price of Plastic Going Up? Merchants May Get Surcharge Rights http://t.co/e2wXuCC5 Will make4interesting competition & ppl hold more $$ Jul 09, 2012

Comments

Commented on Banks Defend Against Libor Lawsuits By Asking “Libor? Who Uses Libor, Anyway?” / Dealbreaker http://t.co/oIRzvh72 Jul 13, 2012
Fun fact: Take the current $VIX, divide it by the square root of 52. That’s the market’s one standard deviation forecast for the next week Jul 12, 2012
RT @EddyElfenbein: Fun fact: Take the current $VIX, divide it by the square root of 12. That’s the market’s one standard deviation forec … Jul 12, 2012
“Very low value analysis. Did a computer write this?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/pUs2DJaj http://t.co/zmt4cMgf $$ Jul 12, 2012
“Banks feel more confident to foreclose when they can sell the property for a small loss at worst.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/z3EUOoRk $$ Jul 12, 2012
“?Everyone needs to lighten up.? No, everyone needs to *tighten* up, and respect the rights of the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/yVrsu4jc $$ Jul 12, 2012
“On the new highs list, look at all the bond CEFs, ETFs, preferreds, etc. Everyone is grabbing income!” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/8ek4vm4E Jul 11, 2012
@Royal_Arse @LDrogen definitely think it doesn’t make sense LT, but long Tsy yields could go lower b4 a rather nasty whippy reversal $$ Jul 11, 2012
low quality $$ RT @jsphctrl: It’s unconventional, certainly. (Bloomberg:) *Urpilainen: One Collateral Option Is Shares From Spanish Banks Jul 11, 2012
@LDrogen with interest, even $JNK made $$, I’m not saying it is the only signal, but $TLT shows a demand4long certain cash flow FD: +TLT Jul 11, 2012
@LDrogen 1 yr price return only $JNK -2%, $LQD +7%, $TLT +32%. I would argue that indicates economic weakness FD: +LQD, +TLT 4 me&clients $$ Jul 11, 2012
“I think they are dreaming. China overbuilt its steel industry & they are losing $$ now.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/RyQOw5tD Jul 11, 2012
@izakaminska @TheStalwart Problem happening w/Danish bonds also http://t.co/tgPPZgKW Ppl willing 2 lock in a loss 2 prevent larger loss $$ Jul 11, 2012
“Because those that are politically powerful in Europe have their own Swiss Bank accounts. Can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/8F93WNQm $$ Jul 11, 2012
+1, we r starved 4 news $$ RT @Fullcarry: FED minutes today probably not that important since BB had a presser after the meeting. Jul 11, 2012
Cat bond sales double in H1http://reut.rs/Nm0whV More alternative reinsurance capacity. Diversifies junk portfolios; invites catastrophes $$ Jul 10, 2012
@historysquared trouble is, few cat bonds have ever triggered, looks like free $$ to many HY bond mgrs, terms will tighten 2deliver losses Jul 10, 2012
When I look at the data for 3/13/06, Barclays actions had no effect on 3M LIBOR. It was excluded from the… http://t.co/gbEPYIXN Jul 10, 2012
“Life actuaries reveal their models annually to the regulators, though not to the public. The same?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/pTqT1F2L $$ Jul 10, 2012
@randomroger Congratulations on the AdvisorShares Global Alpha & Beta, Roger! $RRGR $$ Jul 09, 2012
‘ @Nonrelatedsense 4 mkt val measures: Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price-Resources (Michael Alexander), & @eddyelfenbein ‘s stocks as a bond measure $$ Jul 09, 2012
“P/E has been an unreliable measure of value for the market as a whole. Why rely on it?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/B4ZuMOLz $$ Jul 09, 2012
Commented on The Economist | The LIBOR scandal: The rotten heart of finance http://t.co/qvSysBKt Jul 08, 2012
Commented on The Economist | The LIBOR scandal: The rotten heart of finance http://t.co/Y7JVFkDP Jul 08, 2012

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 6 July 2012 by David Merkel

LIBOR

Commented on The Economist | The LIBOR scandal: The rotten heart of finance $$ LIBOR may not be as rotten as advertised http://t.co/GfXH4hRq Jul 06, 2012
LIBOR scandal: The rotten heart of finance http://t.co/g2RBmaNy Proving actual damages will b tough; don’t think this will amount2much $$ Jul 05, 2012
Libor, central banks and financial stability http://t.co/9DBCcZaK The degree of damage from Libor-fixing is arguable; more analysis2come Jul 04, 2012
LIBOR: Everything You Want to Know, but were Afraid to Ask http://t.co/eYwKF68v Good summary article. $$ Jul 04, 2012

Eurozone

Europe Recalls Hamilton as Desperation Turns on the Debt http://t.co/K8RvS9dP Time running out; will EZone pull together or fly apart $$ Jul 07, 2012
This Is A Fantastic Presentation On Why ‘Germany Is Riskier Than You Think’ http://t.co/UPcEg8yS Cost: Support Euro < Abandon Euro $$ Jul 04, 2012
France Signals More Austerity http://t.co/gCiXPLKl Fascinating:Hollande may b delivering more conservative fiscal policy than Sarkozy $$ Jul 03, 2012

US Politics

Obama Fails to Gain as Unemployment Stuck Since March http://t.co/vX87x6vQ W/policy unsustainable, business owners reluctant 2 hire $$ Jul 06, 2012
Cities Consider Seizing Mortgages http://t.co/V9CKARiC Abuse of eminent domain will not hold up in court. Theft by another name. $$ Jul 05, 2012
How Stockton went broke: A 15-year spending binge http://t.co/VGy6fWv7 Offered enhanced employee benefits, which required no cash outlay $$ Jul 05, 2012
Thx 4 sharing this; worth the read $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: How Stockton went broke: A 15-year spending binge | Reuters http://t.co/LK9VKq4q Jul 05, 2012
Yes, there is a free-market alternative to Obamacare http://t.co/gOpygz04 Support high deductible insurance, even if govt has2do it4the poor Jul 04, 2012
Who Is John…Allison? A Randian, Libertarian Business Icon Takes Over the Cato Institute http://t.co/Bms310O7 Met him @ #CMC29. Nice guy Jul 04, 2012
Debt Forgiveness Would Revive the Economy http://t.co/D5lkF7b6 @JamesGRickards argues this, as I have elsewhere: http://t.co/LdeYyBkh $$ Jul 03, 2012

Financial Markets

Big Board’s New Dark-Pool Ammo: Sub-Penny Quotes http://t.co/FgvZ7ebD I agree w/the guy quoted @ end; A step in the wrong direction $$ Jul 06, 2012
The High-Frequency Conspiracy http://t.co/iOs8buSu HFT and the market makers / specialists work together to extract $$ from stock traders. Jul 04, 2012
@TraderNewsFeed I don’t share that view; I think the GSEs deserve some blame, the Fed a lot of blame, & invt banks a lot of blame, but… $$ Jul 04, 2012
@TraderNewsFeed Pt 2, the investors deserve blame as well. U can’t have a derivative hedge without a yield hog seeking additional income $$ Jul 04, 2012
Tail Risk and Hedge Fund Returns http://t.co/uqcs0Bcg ht: @PragCapitalist As I have argued B4, hedge funds as a whole r short volatility $$ Jul 04, 2012
Blackstone Makes Foray Into Houses for Rent http://t.co/UaRvTRqE Economics of managing a lot of single family houses is difficult $$ Jul 04, 2012
Ex-JPMorgan Trader Feldstein Wins in Betting Against Bank http://t.co/pSfwA1xd This is a good example of how frenemies act on Wall Street Jul 04, 2012
The Changing Face of U.S. Equity Ownership http://t.co/aqQXXVFF Individuals own less, Institutions more; Graph: http://t.co/gb7M6RgY Jul 04, 2012
Stocks for Bond Lovers http://t.co/nzNrE6RA If dividends grow rapidly, a rising income stream beats bonds, if market value persists $$ Jul 04, 2012
Pimco’s Bond King Regains Investor Favor http://t.co/MwSZ8hUu Owning long Treasuries is too fashionable, think I have2sell $TLT FD: +TLT Jul 04, 2012
“There is a high correlation between stocks & anticipated inflation. $$ http://t.co/mKr4SFcn Aleph Blog article: http://t.co/MWBP9Ib7 Jul 03, 2012
Pimco?s El-Erian Says US, Emerging Markets R Top Investments http://t.co/LwbYAIzs EM r in good shape, US better than other big nations $$ Jul 03, 2012

China

For CFAs: China?s Fragile Foundations http://t.co/jwf1IJJB Fraser Howie of CLSA Asia-Pacific explains the economic weaknesses of China $$ Jul 05, 2012
China?s New Rules May Curb Credit Growth http://t.co/KQcRe9uQ Loosen with one hand; tighten w/the other. Now that’s a monetary policy $$ Jul 05, 2012
BRICs Priced for Economic Meltdown http://t.co/wTf6nRp9 It is the lack of “rule of law” that makes them cheap, not possible slump $$ Jul 04, 2012
Jim Chanos ?China Makes Greece and Spain Look Like Child?s Play? http://t.co/GA2woEwn Chanos is an accounting expert; sniffs out failures $$ Jul 03, 2012

Miscellaneous

Good for about 45 minutes as well, eh? $$ RT @BloombergNews: Central banks deliver 45-minute salvo as growth weakens http://t.co/MzlnAUXQ Jul 05, 2012
A New Market for Schools http://t.co/HbMuSfcK Be wary; costs of the degree including foregone wages may not be worth it. $$ Jul 05, 2012
The Green Mountain saga: a cup of joe to go http://t.co/uUPtr1Ht Once again, revenue policies take center stage for accounting quality $$ Jul 04, 2012
Loeb’s Third Point fund moves into Chesapeake http://t.co/3yYeKOhq The plot thickens, as a group of activist investors gathers $$ Jul 04, 2012
Contra: Carlyle Bets Big on U.S. Energy http://t.co/0bT7y1LM This does not look like a big bet to me. $$ Jul 04, 2012
Been experimenting with a spreadsheet that takes @yahoofinance news, and weeds out the chaff, I like it; improves quality, takes work $$ Jul 03, 2012
DNA Mapping of Alzheimer?s Patients Gives Deep Dive View http://t.co/L5M0ATIN May be promising, but not every disease is gene-based $$ Jul 03, 2012

Comments

“It will be very difficult to prove actual damages in these cases. I don’t think this will amount to much.” http://t.co/BP18Tw8D $$ Jul 05, 2012
“Organic growth is one of the toughest tasks in business, and also the most valuable.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/T2MMseVx $$ $BLK Jul 05, 2012
“W/all of that liquidity, they can buy a bigger string to push on.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/N0EOuYnB $$ http://t.co/P456cjMP Jul 05, 2012
“It’s lousy fiscal policy to subsidize things in oversupply, like homes and banks. No spillover?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/AItUK466 $$ Jul 05, 2012
On second thought, thanks to all of my Twitter followers. I am honored that you want to listen to me & I will do my best to serve you $$ Jul 05, 2012
Many thanks to @Clarityspring, my 5,000th Twitter follower; never thought I would enjoy Twitter so much! Jul 05, 2012
Quirky, but interesting. http://t.co/RZSAG652 Jul 04, 2012
RE: @TheStreet_News I think all orders should be good for at least one second. Until them, I will use discretionary r? http://t.co/dxvv58RA Jul 03, 2012
“What a fragmented market: top 10 have ~45%. Not much of a story here. Next. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/nChBIcF2 $JPM $BAC $C $DBK $BARC Jul 02, 2012
“Only one way to lower healthcare costs: move back to a first-party payer system. Individuals decide?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lGZaDFJW Jul 02, 2012
“Difficult proposition: choke the economy to achieve an uncertain environmental benefit.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ngsN5VdG $$ Jul 02, 2012