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The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 12

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 12

This portion goes from November 2009 to January 2010.

Yes, I was one of the eight bloggers that made it to the first meeting with the US Treasury:

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 1

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 2

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 3

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 4

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 5

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 6

My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 7 (Final) (if you have to read only one of these, read this one)

How to Regulate the Banks, and other Financials

It comes down to diversification, leverage, and liquidity.

Notes from Recent Travels

Commentary on the health care bill, and also the AIG Bailout, and the Fed’s reprehensible actions.

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (4) (and more)

Retells my story interacting with the Federal Reserve bank of Richmond, and makes the application to commodity investing.

Post 1100 ? On Thanksgiving

Points out where we need to be thankful.? Even amid crisis, we have many things going well.

The Right Reform for the Fed

Criticizes a lame editorial that Ben Bernanke wrote in the Wall Street Journal.

On Sovereign and Quasi-Sovereign Risks

Talks about the relative riskiness of foreign debts, and the value of being able to tax.

Where the Rubber Meets the Road at Home

Explains how I teach my children about economics and other matters.

Uncharted Waters

Laments the low return on equity culture the US Government creates by trying to keep interest rates low.? (Sound familiar?)

My TIPS, Treasuries, and Inflation Model

An amazing model that describes the forward inflation and real yield curves.

On Contrarianism

“With markets, it doesn?t matter what people say.? What matters is what they rely upon.”

Not so Cheap Trills

One of a number of pieces that I wrote to fight the concept of trills, a form of debt more dangerous than any other I have seen

One Dozen or so Books on Economics

Many clever books on economics that major on history, and minor on theory.

Yield = Poison (2)

The perils of reaching for yield.

Fat Fed Profits Do Not Create a Healthy Economy

Large Seniorage profits for the Fed are not a positive for the economy as a whole.

R Bonds R Bad 4 U

A veiled attempt to raid pension assets to fund the US Government by those aligned with the Obama Administration.

Rationality versus Time Horizons

To come back to the beginning of this article, the fetish of rationality exists in economics because the math doesn?t work without it.? Many tests of rationality have failed, yet the profession does not give up, because their skills are useless if man is not economically rational.

Cram and Jam

There are many distortions of accounting data, and this gives you two of them.

Double Down Institutional Investing

Deals with the asset-liability mismatch in much of endowment investing.

Fear the Boom and Bust ? an Economics Lesson

My commentary on the Keynes vs Hayek videos up to that point.

In Defense of Home Bias

It is very rational to invest closer to home and this article explains why.

The Forever Fund

One of my best pieces ever, where I defend Buffett’s purchase of Burlington Northern, because it is irreplaceable.? This helps to explain how Buffett manages for the very long term, and does well at it.

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 10

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 10

This era encompasses May through July 2009, as the market rallied.? As usual, I sold too soon, and did not benefit from the continuing rally.

Farewell to John Davidson

This is my only short story at my blog, about an honest insurance executive in the credit crisis.? I know many insurance executives like his adversary, but few like him.

Choose Two: Principal Protection, Liquidity, and Above-Market Returns

The main idea is simple: you can get two out of three at best.

The Zero Short

Shorting is a tactical discipline and not a structural discipline.? Don’t try to short stock to zero, or near it.

The First Priority of Risk Control

Can you assure liquidity under all reasonable possible futures, and a few unreasonable futures?

?Just Gimme the Answer, Will Ya??

Do you want to understand the situation fully, or do you want a soundbite answer to your question?

Problems with Constant Compound Interest

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (2)

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (3)

No tree grows to the sky.? Nothing can grow at above average growth rates forever.

Do you Want to be Proud, or do you Want to Make Money?

Humility is a core asset for investment managers.

Loss Severity Leverage

Structured securities have a higher probability of “losing it all.”? Also, the medium-sized insurer mentioned did not go insolvent, but did have to get a cash infusion from some other insurers that had joined with them into a greater entity.

Fruits and Vegetables Versus Assets in Demand (2)

Fresh produce is what it is, a perishable commodity, where quantity and quality are positively correlated, and pricing is negatively correlated.? Financial assets don?t perish rapidly, quantity and quality are negatively correlated, and pricing is often positively correlated to the quantity of assets issued, since the demand for assets varies more than the supply.? Whereas, with fresh produce, the supply varies more than the demand.

The Benefits of Dumb Regulation

In short, why regulators have to have some spine, and just say no to fancy ideas.? Implied in this is that state regulation of insurance, dumb as it is, is more effective than Federal regulation of banks.

It Takes Two to Tango

Why simple explanations of market phenomena are frequently wrong.

Sorry, Doctor Shiller, not Everything can be Hedged

“The concept that everything can be hedged assumes deep markets everywhere, which is not the case.”

Toward a New Concept of Asset Allocation

An attempt to flesh out what a better concept on asset allocation would look like.

To Control Bubbles, the Fed Must First Control Itself

Why the Fed should be the systemic risk regulator.

The Equity Premium is No Longer a Puzzle

Why stocks are slightly better than bonds in the long, long run.

Central Bank Independence is Overrated

If the independence of the Central Bank is never used to resist that desires of the politicians to goose, then that is not independence, but a sham.

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