Search Results for: Flavors of Insurance, Part

Post 2000

Post 2000

This has been a lot of fun.? This has been a lot of work.? This has been a “labor of love.”

When I wrote for RealMoney, I would sometimes say to my editor Gretchen, “Here’s another labor of love piece,” to which she would give a hearty response, because she liked editing me.? She told me she always learned a lot from me.? I liked working with her a lot.

Unlike some writers at RealMoney, I would sometimes troll through the comments on Cramer’s blog.? Sometimes I would defend him, at minimum I would try to explain him.

At the time, there were some financial blogs that I liked a lot — Jeff Miller, Barry Ritholtz, Roger Nusbaum, Steven Randy Waldman, Eddy Elfenbein, Alea… I know there are more, but I can’t remember now.? I resisted starting a blog for 1-2 years, because I felt RealMoney was my blog.? I especially liked participating in the Columnist’s Conversation.? (Note: if RealMoney would like to invite me back, I am open to the idea.? That said, the CFA Institute has encouraged me to blog for them as well — just don’t know how much content I can produce, because everyone wants original content.)

But I realized that RealMoney and I had different goals, and in talking with some of those that commented at Cramer’s blog, I decided to launch Aleph Blog.? Why call it Aleph Blog?? Many reasons, as noted in the link, but part of the fun was getting to read Borges, who I had not previously read.

When I launched Aleph Blog, I had no idea what I was getting into, and I did not intend on leaving RealMoney.? I liked the editorial freedom, though, and liked the broader interaction with many voices across the internet, rather than only RealMoney columnists, good as they were.? I did research when I started, and so I created my own domain, signed up with Seeking Alpha, and launched just prior to the mini-crisis where the Chinese stock market crashed in Shanghai.? When that happened, I wrote a popular piece that Seeking Alpha picked up that my friend Cody Willard promoted as well.

And off we went!? A grand experiment, allowing me to spread my wings more wide than at RealMoney.? My goal was to do a brain dump of areas where I thought I had competence.? I didn’t want to be like many bloggers where over 50% of their post is quoting others — I wanted to write from my heart, expressing my views on a wide number of topics relating to economics, finance and investment, from my unusual framework, which is Evangelical Christian, mostly libertarian (but not for financials), actuarial, value investor, doubting neoclassical economics and modern portfolio theory.

I was recently at a Baltimore CFA Society meeting, when a few people came up to me telling me how much they liked my blog.? Some quoted to me recent pieces I had written.? This was new; I was surprised.? I have never had local people come to me and say that.? Yes, stats for Maryland on my blog are above average, but my work helping the local CFA Society always seemed to be detached from other things that I do.? My worlds are merging, maybe.

My worlds are also merging from the many evangelical Christians who write to me.? This is a blog written by a Christian, not a Christian blog.? I’m here to serve everyone, but my views on ethics will color all that I write.

At the beginning, I tried focused linkfests, where I drew together posts on a hot topic, and narrated them to give my thoughts.? Those were a lot of work.? Today, my linkfests occur through Twitter.

Twitter: it took me even more pain to decide to do Twitter.? Given that my blogging is more long-form than most — why should I do Twitter?!? My answer for today is simple: to have good conversations, and push good content to readers.? And, for those who don’t do Twitter, they can read my weekly sorted tweets.? I got the idea from History Squared, a newer blog that I like.? Sorting the tweets makes them more useful to readers, so if it takes half an hour to do so each week, it is worth it.

But now I have more followers on Twitter than on RSS.? 6000 vs 5300.? I prefer RSS because people see the whole post, but I understand how the lower bandwidth on Twitter allows people to choose what attracts them.? Twitter makes us all epigram writers in AOL-ese.? It is challenging to do, but I like a good challenge.

I’ve written a number of series that have been significant:

I’m sure there are more, but I can’t think of them now.? At the same Baltimore CFA Society meeting as mentioned before, one person asked me, “How do you write about the wide variety of topics that you do?”

Part of it is my varied career, and educational background.? I have worked in a large number of areas, and have not been afraid to branch out and try things slightly outside my grasp.? You only learn when you fail.? I’ve learned a lot. I’ve failed a lot.

If you don’t take reasonable chances, you won’t grow.? Look for opportunities to expand your abilities — who can tell where you will go?!? Opportunities go to those who are there, grab hold of them, and win.? If you don’t try, you won’t win.

I know that my blog is an acquired taste, and best for professionals and advanced amateurs.? If you are a beginner, best you should focus on my personal finance category.

My goal has been to give something back to my readers.? I’ve had an interesting career, with many unusual and entertaining experiences.? I don’t have to have more fame or clients.? I enjoy relating the truths of the markets to others, whether they are beautiful or ugly.

To my readers: I don’t know if I will last another thousand posts, but I appreciate that you read me, eclectic as I am.? The one thing I promise: I will do my best for you, poor as that may be.

Your Servant,

David

PS — I know that my views on Fed policy and economics will win me few friends, but someone has to point out that the paradigm is broken.? Same for Modern Portfolio Theory….

 

Five Years at the Aleph Blog!

Five Years at the Aleph Blog!

When Jim Cramer asked me to write for RealMoney, it was a dream come true, and I didn’t ask for it.? After year of writing him on bond issues, he told me I wrote better than most he knew.? Trouble was, in 2003, I had a new job at a hedge fund, and was doing well at it.? It took some doing, but eventually my boss (a good guy, generally) agreed that I could do it, and my public writing on investing began.

Writing for RealMoney, I always felt a little odd.? As I do at Aleph Blog, it is my goal to help you think better, not shovel “buy this now” ideas at you.? I wrote more comments relative to articles than any other writer; I was told that I was RealMoney’s most profitable writer, because people re-read my articles & comments.? Oddly, I had less feedback from Cramer than when I was an e-mailer.? That said, if I ever e-mailed him, which I did rarely 1-2 times/year, he would always give me a short gracious response.? Long before I actually did so, he encouraged me to start my own asset management shop, when I asked his advice in the matter.

Roughly one year before I left RealMoney (which I did unceremoniously, never said goodbye), I started Aleph Blog.? I did it for greater freedom of expression.? I also never read RealMoney anymore, and as such, did not feel the compulsion to contribute to a publication that I had loved.

I wanted to write more article-length pieces about issues that were deeper to investing, and not simple buy/sell this asset pieces.? So, beginning with the Shanghai Market crisis in February 2007, we were off and running.? Most of my initial pieces were shorter; I would write two per evening, six days a week.? That morphed into one longer piece once an evening.

It was my goal to try to take my generalist experiences and turn them into something valuable for the general public.? I did not want to be an “all crisis, all the time” blog.? When the crisis was hot, or promising to be so, I would write.? And though I have distinct views on how economic policy should be done, that is not what defines me.? We have to act and live in the face of suboptimal policies.

There are many pieces and series that I could never have done at RealMoney that I have done at Aleph Blog.? As a sampler:

  • Education of a Corporate Bond Manager (12 parts)
  • Flavors of Insurance (12 parts)
  • The Rules (30 parts so far, and may go to 60 if I do them all)
  • A Day in the Life of John Davidson (my one attempt at fiction, 8 parts)
  • Most of my articles dealing with flaws in institutional investment strategies, accounting rules, etc.
  • My occasional rants on how I thank neoclassical economics is wrong, and sometimes, very wrong.
  • Articles on accounting rules and the effect on investing.? In some circles, this is (wide eyes here) an accounting blog. (I’ve never taken an accounting course in my life.? I’ve had to create accounting statements for 12-18 years of my life corporately.? I have read through accounting standards, and theories on accounting polices repeatedly.)
  • Many of my quantitative posts they would have blinked at, and said, “Uh, who will benefit from that?”? My view is, you may not get any initial benefit from such a piece, but if you get some idea into how the markets interact, you may be better prepared when things get weird.
  • All of the book reviews. That was not an early goal of the blog, but has become 10% of what I do.
  • The interactions I have had with agencies of the US Government.
  • The (7 part) first blogger summit at the US Treasury.? It was a pleasure to meet Steven Randy Waldman, Yves Smith, Kid Dynamite, Accrued Interest, John Jansen, Michael Panzner, and Tyler Cowen.

That said, RealMoney gave me more room to run than most columnists.? They rarely turned down my ideas, but they did want me to become more “practical,” and crank out more investment ideas.? The hard thing for me was/is, I have no lack of investment ideas/opinions, but the response I get to giving them is far less civil than sharing ideas on how to think about investing.? To that end, I appreciate Tom Brakke, who does that in a very structured way.? We had tea together last June or so, and I started to write about it but could never get it out.

In late summer of last year, Josh Brown came through the area, and we had lunch together.? Great guy; a ton of fun and ideas.? A man like him in some ways is my pal Cody Willard, who is a fountain of ideas and connections.? Add in James Altucher, who is prolific, and has been willing to give me time on two occasions.

Last fall I had a late dinner with Miguel Barbosa of Simoleon Sense.? Very bright guy; great conversation.? During the same trip to Chicago, got to talk with Eric Falkenstein for a few hours.? Wish I could have met up with Tadas Viskanta then; maybe another time.

Yet that reminds me of those I interact with.? Though I have never physically met them, I appreciate Barry Ritholtz, Jeff Miller, Felix Salmon, Bruce Krasting, Howard Simons, Roger Nusbaum, Gonzalo Lira, Michael Pettis, Victor Shih, Carl Walter, jck at Alea, the crew at FT Alphaville, and more.

There was the Aleph Blog lunch in late 2010, and the relationships that engendered.? I am very grateful for all of the relationships that blogging has created for me, whether close or distant.

And, with all of the virtuality of blogging, the relationships are what make it for me.? I am happy to write bits on the sites of others, and give them content.? I appreciate those that I read and comment on.

And to the many who have written me, though I may have never responded, thanks for writing me.? I get fifty+ messages per day and can’t keep up.? So, thanks to all have interacted with me, that’s what has made it valuable to me.

PS — If I forgot you, my apologies, I have so many interactions that it is difficult to keep track of them all.

 

Post 1400 — About to Launch

Post 1400 — About to Launch

Every 100 posts, I take a step back, and think about where we have been.? My, I have been a busy bee.? And I have blogged more than usual over the last three months.

In the recent past, I have completed my “Flavors of Insurance” series.? I also wrote a series on investment modeling.? And I wrote a complete series on my eight portfolio rules.? I have created a book review database that I will continually update.? And in this time I have given two talks, one to the Society of Actuaries at their Annual Meeting, and one to the CFA Society of Denver, together with the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado.? Add to that my two award winning articles that I mentioned yesterday.? And this is in the midst of this, I have written more than ever.

Now as an aside, do you know who I am happy for?? Trader Mark.? I am glad that he has gotten enough subscriptions that he can start his mutual fund after the SEC okays it..? He seems to be a bright guy, and I wish him all the best.? He has more than $10 million of commitments.? Good for him, and I hope it grows from there.

As for me, by the end of January 2011, I have no idea how much I might be managing, it could be as small as $3 million, or over$10 million.? Many people have indicated interest, but the test is how many commit.? I won’t be disappointed if I hit the low end of the range, but I would not be surprised if I hit the top of the range, or exceed it.

What I am Doing

Because of many questions from readers, I want to give a brief description of what I am doing.? There is some confusion over what I do, because I have been a bond manager, and a lot of my investing is informed by conditions in the bond market.? I follow a lot of markets, because they are related, and knowledge of the whole sharpens understanding of particular markets.

But I invest in stocks.? Mostly stocks in the US, with a value orientation.? I rotate industries, as I have often written about.? I run a concentrated portfolio of 30-40 stocks.? I adapt to market environments.? Markets are very difficult to time, but if you are in stocks that have a margin of safety, a cheap valuation, and the industry is experiencing an increase in pricing power, it is hard not to earn good returns over time.? The rest is summarized in my eight rules.

The ideal here is to give investors a clone of my portfolio through separately managed accounts.? Each account has its own portfolio, which can then be be managed for tax purposes, unlike a mutual fund.

I am offering taxable accounts, IRAs, and other tax-deferred accounts.? I am not afraid of being called a fiduciary under ERISA standards, because I manage all money to those standards.

I am also offering market-neutral management of assets for taxable accounts, at no more cost than long only.? And, my fees are not high — 1% on assets between $100,000 (minimum size) and $1,000,000, 0.5% on assets over $1,000,000.

As it stands, next week I am going to start inviting those that have already contacted me to open an account at Interactive Brokers, and will send them a package of other materials via e-mail to complete the deal.? After that, I manage their money on a discretionary basis, mirroring my own trades.? I get the same execution levels as my clients.? We all trade together.? I will eat my own cooking, and at minimum 50% of my liquid assets will be invested in my strategies. At present, it is 80%+.

Aside from that, I have minimized the cost of trading by using Interactive Brokers.? Particularly for smaller accounts, it is the best solution.? Using Interactive Brokers means investors get cheap trades, while I pay fees to access market data.? Those costs get paid by investors through higher commissions in many other situations.? I bear those costs here, and I do not take soft dollars.

I start my investment management practice in early January.? I am really encouraged by this, and look forward to serving my clients.

What Remains

These are the few things I need to get done before I start:

  1. Compliance Strategy, Including Web Compliance Strategy, CFA Document Retention
  2. Procedures for suitability ? CFA notes on such to guide
  3. Investment Policy Statement

I have the data together for most of these, though I have a question for those that manage equity money for clients through separate accounts.? What do you do on suitability?

What I need to get done will get done next week, and I will start taking client assets in 2011.? I thought of doing this in 1996 and 2003, but did not do it because I did not have enough assets of my own to buffer me if it did not work.? Now I can do it, and last for many years.

Those who inquire of me can see my 10-year track record.? I’ve done well, but that does not mean that I will do well in the future.? But I will do my best for clients.

The Blog

There are some that worry that I will stop blogging.? That is not my plan.? If I could write at RealMoney while working for a hedge fund, I can blog under the same rules with separate accounts.

But some things will change.? I will delete my portfolio at Stockpickr.? Only clients will know my full portfolio.

I don’t have any public stock positions other than what is in my portfolio.

Aside from the market-neutral accounts, there are no derivatives.? And I will let client know whether I am market neutral or long only, or a percentage thereof, before I do it.? Right now I am long only.

I will not write as much about portfolio management, at least on a detailed basis.? I will provide more detailed information on portfolio management issues to clients.

Thanks

One thing I have strongly believed since starting my blog — my readers have alternative uses of their time.? I thank them for taking time to read me.? I am humbled by the large reception I have received over the? years, and thank those that take their precious time to read me.

Soli Deo Gloria

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