Search Results for: nwli

Lonely Puppies, or Abandoned Mutts

Lonely Puppies, or Abandoned Mutts

I have often owned companies with little to no sell-side analyst coverage.? Ask yourself this, how many companies trading on US exchanges are there:

  • That have no analyst coverage
  • That are US-based
  • That have a Market Cap over $250 million
  • That aren’t passthrough vehicles
  • And have pitiful liquidity at least

I made the following list by using a Media General database, and cross-checking it with Yahoo Finance.? Yeah, I live on the cheap.? Here we go:

Company Industry Ticker Market Cap $M
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. 0103 – Chemical Manufacturing TNH ??????????? 4,235
Icahn Enterprises, L.P. 0963 – Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) IEP ?????????? ?4,065
Valhi, Inc. 0103 – Chemical Manufacturing VHI ??????????? 3,856
Seaboard Corporation 0515 – Food Processing SEB ??????????? 2,619
EQT Midstream Partners LP 1206 – Natural Gas Utilities EQM ??????????????? 908
Contango Oil & Gas Company 0609 – Oil & Gas Operations MCF ??????????????? 901
Nortek Inc 0406 – Appliances & Tools NTK ??????????????? 797
Sabine Royalty Trust 0609 – Oil & Gas Operations SBR ??????????????? 781
Dorchester Minerals LP 0609 – Oil & Gas Operations DMLP ??????????????? 695
Rouse Properties Inc 0933 – Real Estate Operations RSE ??????????????? 681
Star Scientific, Inc. 0524 – Tobacco CIGX ??????????????? 590
NL Industries, Inc. 0103 – Chemical Manufacturing NL ??????????????? 578
1st Source Corporation 0727 – Regional Banks SRCE ??????????????? 547
Apco Oil & Gas International I 0609 – Oil & Gas Operations APAGF ??????????????? 546
CorVel Corporation 0806 – Healthcare Facilities CRVL ??????????????? 518
National Western Life Insuranc 0709 – Insurance (Life) NWLI ??????????????? 513
Village Super Market, Inc. 0957 – Retail (Grocery) VLGEA ??????????????? 468
Atrion Corporation 0812 – Medical Equipment & Supplies ATRI ??????????????? 416
Presidential Life Corp 0709 – Insurance (Life) PLFE ??????????????? 411
PHI Inc. 0612 – Oil Well Services & Equipment PHII ??????????????? 409
Seneca Foods Corp 0515 – Food Processing SENEA ??????????????? 324
Lifevantage Corporation 0809 – Major Drugs LFVN ??????????????? 306
Preformed Line Products Compan 0127 – Misc. Fabricated Products PLPC ??????????????? 300
Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. 0718 – Investment Services WHG ??????????????? 294
Ladenburg Thalmann Financial S 0718 – Investment Services LTS ??????????????? 287
Camden National Corporation 0727 – Regional Banks CAC ??????????? ????281
Federal National Mortgage Asso 0703 – Consumer Financial Services FNMA ??????????????? 278
Fisher Communications, Inc. 0906 – Broadcasting & Cable TV FSCI ??????????????? 278
Pendrell Corp 0718 – Investment Services PCO ??????????????? 277
U.S. Lime & Minerals Inc. 0212 – Construction – Raw Materials USLM ??????????????? 271
Winmark Corporation 0963 – Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) WINA ??????????????? 264
Arden Group, Inc. 0957 – Retail (Grocery) ARDNA ??????????????? 263
Clifton Savings Bancorp, Inc. 0727 – Regional Banks CSBK ??????????????? 262

Not so surprising, there are:

  • A lot of limited partnerships and royalty trusts.
  • Many financial firms.
  • Many companies where there is a controlling shareholder, and liquidity is scarce relative to size.

All that said, this is an area of the market where few tread, and there may be some values to be had.

Now, there were some companies that were far less liquid, and with less disclosure,? that fit the above criteria, and I list them here.

Extremely Limited Liquidity

Company Industry Ticker Market Cap $M
Belk Inc 0951 – Retail (Department & Discount) BLKIA ??????????? 1,839
SunGame Corporation 1036 – Software & Programming SGMZ ??????????????? 746
First National Bank Alaska 0727 – Regional Banks FBAK ??????????????? 555
Computer Services, Inc. 1036 – Software & Programming CSVI ??????????????? 463
First Citizens Bancorporation, 0727 – Regional Banks FCBN ??????????????? 410
TherapeuticsMD Inc 0921 – Motion Pictures TXMD ??????????????? 311
Hills Bancorporation 0727 – Regional Banks HBIA ??????????????? 304
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp 0727 – Regional Banks FMCB ??????????????? 284

Some of these look promising as longs, if you can get shares. Others look promising as shorts, if you can get a borrow.? Remember that the illiquid end of the market is the place where promoters play, creating their own internal version of the “bucket shop,” getting people to buy in at higher valuations, while they sell out for a profit.

These are companies where personal research can pay off, because few others are analyzing them.? I own one of them, and it is:

Full Disclosure: long NWLI

Changes for David — IV

Changes for David — IV

My goal is to open for business at the beginning of January 2011.? I could have started earlier, but I didn’t feel that giving clients an additional bit of tax data was worth the early start.? In general, I have spent the extra time trying to make sure that I get things right at the start.

Here is my remaining to do list:

  1. Decide on Custodian/Clearing Broker ? Any thoughts from Dailey?
  2. Compliance Strategy, Including Web Compliance Strategy, CFA Document Retention
  3. Procedures for suitability ? CFA notes, Investment Policy Statement
  4. E&O Insurance
  5. Marketing ? and deal w/e-mail, Linked-in day, other contacts, Press Release
  6. Strategy for Illiquid names ? DIIBF, PCCC, IBA, NWLI

Deciding on the custodian/clearing broker is the biggest item, and affects #4 as well.? I am leaning toward Interactive Brokers, because I like their cost structure for small accounts, and they offer a lot of tools to be able to trade cleverly, particularly in an era of high frequency traders.

The downside is that they aren’t good on the service side, which means that I will have to compensate, and be the friendly front end for my clients.

Proxy Voting Policy

I modified the proxy voting policy of one of my readers, and I thank him for his help.? I disagree with him on a few issues, so I don’t want to name him or explain where we differ.? Instead, here is my proxy voting policy, and I solicit your comments.

=-=-=-=-=-=-

Aleph Investments, LLC Proxy Voting Procedures

The Chief Investment Officer shall responsible for voting all shareholder proxies. It will be the Chief Investment Officer?s responsibility to ensure that all proxies are voted in a timely manner. Proxies shall be voted in the best interests of shareholders, with an emphasis on voting against any management proposals that act in general to insulate companies from the discipline of the market or accountability to shareholders.

Specific Policies:

A. Corporate Governance

1. Unless exceptional circumstances exist Aleph Investments will vote against proposals that make it more difficult to replace Board members, including proposals to:

a. Stagger the Board;
b. Overweight management on Board;
c. Introduce cumulative voting;
d. Introduce unequal voting rights;
e. Create supermajority voting;
f. Establish pre-emptive rights.

Aleph Investments will vote in favor of any proposals to reverse the above.

Generally, Aleph Investments will withhold its vote for directors who hold little or no stock in the company and have been on the Board for three years or longer, or for new directors who appear to be primarily political or show appointments who do not appear to possess skills or knowledge that is relevant to the company’s business.? Aleph Investments also favors separating the roles of Chairman and CEO, and not having the CEO on the nominating committee.

For companies that have not given us an adequate rate of return (subjectively determined), we will vote down all questions and positions proposed by management, including the auditor.

B. Takeover Defense and Related Actions.

Aleph Investments generally will vote against proposals that make it more difficult for a Company to be taken over by outsiders, and in favor of proposals to do the opposite. The reason for this is that we believe that corporate management should be subject at all times to the incentives and punishments of the market, not insulated from them.

C. Compensation Plans.

Aleph Investments generally will vote against most large incentive pay proposals, with the exception of those that are meant to apply to ordinary employees.? Most of the time, management teams are paid well enough; it should be enough incentive for to have moderate incentives, and know that if you can?t deliver, you will be replaced, just like the rest of us.? Once management teams get too well off, they tend to underperform.? Also, we prefer management compensation to be tied to things management/workers can work on, like net operating income or change in book value, rather than stock valuations, which they can?t affect much.

In addition, Aleph Investments will vote against any compensation that would act to reward management as a result of a takeover attempt, whether successful or not, such as revaluing purchase price of stock options, golden parachutes or handcuffs, etc.

D. Capital Structure.

Aleph Investments generally will vote against proposals to move the company to another state less favorable to shareholders interests, or to restructure classes of stock in such a way as to benefit one class of shareholders at the expense of another, such as dual classes (A and B shares) of stock.

E. Noneconomic Proposals

Aleph investments will generally vote against noneconomic proposals.? We expect firms to follow the law in the places in which they operate, and to observe general ethics beyond that.? We don?t want firms to follow the ethics of tiny minorities who submit proxy proposals.

F. Size of Board

Aleph Investments will vote against any proposals that act to increase the size of the board beyond
12 – 15 members. We believe generally that large boards have a more difficult time with major changes and other important decisions, and that responsibility is more easily avoided and diffused among too many members.

G. Appointment of Outside Directors.

Aleph Investments will vote against any proposal to allow the CEO to appoint outside directors, and in favor of any proposal to eliminate this ability. The Board’s outside directors should not owe their position or allegiance to a member of management, but to the shareholders and/or independent board members alone. For the same reason, we may vote against any outside Board member who has business dealings with a company on whose Board he sits. Allowable exceptions may be venture capitalists who helped bring a company public, and have a great deal of industry knowledge; senior management of companies in industry sectors served by the company, and who may have valuable insight to contribute regarding industry competitive and business factors; and similar factors that may contribute to the knowledge level of the board members.

H. Multiple Director Positions

Aleph Investments will generally vote against any Board member who is also a Director of four or more different companies. Multiple directorships are time-consuming, especially for senior management of other businesses who have other full-time jobs. We find it difficult to believe that in such cases the Director can adequately fulfill his or her responsibilities to the shareholders.

I. Incentive Stock Award Programs:

Aleph Investments will vote against incentive stock awards that act to concentrate significant amounts of stock in the hands of upper management. While we understand the need to incentivize management by placing a significant amount of upper management and director compensation and net worth at risk in the stock market, this needs to be meaningful only at a personal level. It should not necessary to set aside a significant proportion of shareholder capital for a limited number of upper management personnel in order to incentivize them.

Aleph Investments will support proposals that force executives to put their own money on the line in company stock in exchange for other incentives.? We are putting our money on the line, so should managers.

J. Conflicts of Interest.

Due to the nature of our business and its small size, it is unlikely that conflicts of interest will arise in voting the proxies of public companies, because Aleph Investments, LLC does not do investment banking, or manage or advise public companies.

Full disclosure: long DIIBF, PCCC, IBA, NWLI

Moving Backwards, or not

Moving Backwards, or not

On Saturday of last week, I cleaned my office, and filed everything away.? I also sat down and wrote out all of the things that I needed to do to make my asset management business go live.? It had 14 items.? Here is the list as of today:

  1. Decide on Custodian ? Ask opinions from others
  2. Compliance Strategy
  3. Including Web Compliance Strategy
  4. Privacy Policy
  5. Aleph Investments Website and E-mail domain
  6. E&O Insurance
  7. Trademark
  8. Accounting and Tax Software
  9. Attestation
  10. Marketing ? and deal w/e-mail, Linked-in day
  11. Other contacts, Press Release
  12. Strategy for Illiquid names ? DIIBF, PCCC, IBA, NWLI
  13. Procedures for suitability
  14. Proxy Voting Policy?
  15. Update and move disclaimer
  16. Update disclaimers on pitchbook
  17. Create a template for a daily journal of activity
  18. Create checklists for what I give to potential clients, new clients, and old clients.

18 items?? Well, I finished one, and got five more as I did research.? I have made significant progress on half of them.? Here’s where I stand now:

Decide on Custodian ? Ask opinions from others

I have one more demo to watch, but I am leaning toward Interactive Brokers, with Scottrade second, and ETrade being lousy marketers third.? You have any thoughts on this?

Compliance Strategy

I am reviewing the Maryland code on compliance, and designing my methods of capturing all of the necessary data.

Including Web Compliance Strategy

That includes my blog posts, Twitter, and comments around the web. Ugh.

Privacy Policy

Yes, I need a privacy policy, and I have trolled around the web to see what others in my shoes do.? I should be able to get something together.

Aleph Investments Website and E-mail domain

Not hard to do.? Just have to get it done, and separate my business and personal life.

E&O Insurance

Alas, I think I need Commercial General Liability insurance as well.? Any body else have an opinion here?? Also, if you are an RIA, who insures you?? E-mail me.

Trademark

I need to trademark a slogan of mine.? That will not be completed by the time I go live.

Accounting and Tax Software

I will get this through Intuit, because the business is simple; I just have to do it.

Attestation

I have contacted an accountant for an attestation of my performance.

Marketing ? and deal w/e-mail, Linked-in day

I have a lot of people to write to, and others to talk to on LinkedIn.

Other contacts, Press Release

I may do a Press Release on my startup.

Strategy for Illiquid names ? DIIBF, PCCC, IBA, NWLI

Do I sell them off before I start, or do I keep them and try to add them delicately to client portfolios? DIIBF trades more liquid in Canada, should I buy/sell it there?

Procedures for suitability

What I am doing is only suitable for risk assets.? How do I assure that investors only bring money that they can afford to lose?

Proxy Voting Policy

My consultant said that an acceptable policy was, “I don’t vote your proxies.”? Fair enough, but I went around the web, and found a variety of policies.? I should be able to write one of my own from that.

Update and move disclaimer

I need to strengthen my disclaimer at this blog, and move it higher.

Update disclaimers on pitchbook

I need to update disclaimers on my pitchbook, making them larger and more obvious.

Create a template for a daily journal of activity

I need to design a method of capturing daily activity for my firm, so that each day’s actions are memorialized.

Create checklists for what I give to potential clients, new clients, and old clients.

I want to make sure that I do this right for all of the people/firms that deal with me.

That’s all for now.? I am still shooting for a December 1st start, and I think that is achievable.

Thanks to all who have contacted me and given me advice, or said they would like to invest.

Recent Portfolio Actions

Recent Portfolio Actions

New Buys:

  • 5/19/2010????? Petrobras
  • 7/9/2010??????? Goldman Sachs Group Inc
  • 8/31/2010????? American Electric Power
  • 8/31/2010????? Corn Products International
  • 8/31/2010????? Zhongpin
  • 8/31/2010????? PC Connection
  • 8/31/2010????? Stancorp Financial

New Sales:

  • 8/31/2010????? Goldman Sachs Group Inc
  • 8/31/2010????? Dominion Energy
  • 8/31/2010????? PPL Inc.
  • 8/31/2010????? Sempra Power
  • 8/31/2010????? Safeway Inc.

Rebalancing Buys:

  • 5/19/2010????? Ensco International Inc
  • 6/1/2010??????? Noble Corporation
  • 6/29/2010????? Computer Sciences Corp
  • 6/30/2010????? Industrias Bachoco
  • 6/30/2010????? Northrop Grumman
  • 6/8/2010??????? Safeway Inc
  • 7/6/2010??????? National Presto
  • 8/12/2010????? Constellation Energy Group

Rebalancing Sales:

  • 8/2/2010??????? Noble Corporation

Thoughts

1)? I try not to trade too much.? For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.? As it is, for three months, I have not made a lot of trades.

2) I reduced utility exposure, it seems to have gotten relatively expensive amid the yield craze.? I have added cheap, well-financed names in a number of areas.

3) Assurant and National Western are double weights.? The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.? Note that National Western is quite illiquid.? Do not place market orders to buy or sell.

4) I flipped my momentum factor from small negative to moderate positive.? I have concluded that in a touchy macro environment like this, it is wise to consider return momentum.

5) I still don?t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

6) I had some runners-up in my analyses: AXS EDS TRH DFG

7 ) Some thoughts on the 8/31 buys:

  • PC Connection is a net-net, illiquid, but makes money.? Unusual to have a company that trades for less than its net assets, and makes money.? THIS IS ILLIQUID.? NO MARKET ORDERS.
  • Stancorp Financial is a well-run insurer trading at a discount.? Issues: Commercial mortgage exposure high, and disability may prove problematic during recessionary conditions.
  • American Electric Power was cheaper than the utilities it replaced.
  • Zhongpin sells pork in China.? Seems cheap, and has a decent amount of growth potential.? The financials look clean, but I am still reviewing it.
  • Corn Products seems cheap, and its products are needed globally.

8 ) I have roughly 11% in cash.? If I find a really good idea, I might bring that down to 8%.? At present, my stocks are nearer to the high end of their rebalancing bands, so I am more likely to be doing a little selling than buying of my existing stocks in the short-run.

9)? Here was the last update.? Comments welcome.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): COP SBS DIIBF IBA VLO NTE SAFT RGA ESV ALL PRE PEP GPC LNT AIZ ADM CVX NE ORCL NWLI CB CSC NOC NPK SCG TOT SENEA CEG PBR AEP HOGS PCCC SFG CPO

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

Well, whaddaya know?? I received a nice mention at The Ideas Report For Serious Investors. Unexpected, and an honor. I really like their blog and have added it to my RSS reader.? So, I left them this comment, which is not published yet:

Hey, thanks for mentioning me. Here’s a bonus for those with access to RealMoney:

And away from RealMoney:

I hope you enjoy these. They are the bulk of my thoughts on insurance stocks, aside from issue-specific commentary.

David

Disclosure: long ALL NWLI SAFT RGA AIZ PRE CB

I went back through all of my blog posts in insurance to analyze what were the best things I had written on insurance investing.? I also added one more blog post idea to my list.? A long time ago, I wrote a 16-page paper summarizing the whole insurance industry for a former employer.? It was urgent, so I pulled an all-nighter at the ripe old age of 43.? He was deeply grateful for the piece, and then it never got published.? It was supposed to span three issues of his newsletter, but it never appeared in one.? I have no idea why it never ran, but it bugged me that it never did.? So, with a little updating, I hope to release it in serial form sometime in the next few months.? I have lost the original file, so I will have to scan it in and edit it.

But enough of that — the articles listed above are a reasonable summary of how I analyze insurance and other financial stocks.? For those that invest in stocks, I hope you enjoy these posts.

PostscriptApologies to PlanMaestro, Manual of Ideas republished his work, and I appreciate the two mentions from him at his blog, Variant Perceptions.? He expands his thoughts on my most recent piece on AIG’s under-reserving.? Keep it up PlanMaestro, and remember, PartnerRe does not discount its reserves.

Morning Financials Update

Morning Financials Update

Big Movers

Top 20 Financial Stock Movers

Company [ticker] News Price Move
Washington Mutual Inc [WAMUQ] Valuation-insensitive buyers on high volume and no news.

13%

Pacific Capital Bancorp NA [PCBC] Strong buying at the open leads the stock up on no news.

6%

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc [AHT] No news materially driving the stock price

6%

First BanCorp/Puerto Rico [FBP] No news materially driving the stock price

4%

Radian Group Inc [RDN] No news materially driving the stock price

4%

EastGroup Properties Inc [EGP] Jim Cramer likes it for the yield.? Mentioned on Mad Money.

3%

Advance America Cash Advance C [AEA] No news materially driving the stock price

3%

LoopNet Inc [LOOP] No news materially driving the stock price

3%

Heartland Financial USA Inc [HTLF] No news materially driving the stock price

3%

China Real Estate Information? [CRIC] No news materially driving the stock price

3%

Move Inc [MOVE] Banxquote.com sues them for antitrust reasons.

2%

First Bancorp/Troy NC [FBNC] No news materially driving the stock price

2%

United America Indemnity Ltd [INDM] No news materially driving the stock price

2%

Enstar Group Ltd [ESGR] No news materially driving the stock price

-3%

New York Community Bancorp Inc [NYB] No news materially driving the stock price

-3%

Stewart Information Services C [STC] No news materially driving the stock price

-3%

Waddell & Reed Financial Inc [WDR] No news materially driving the stock price

-3%

Artio Global Investors Inc [ART] Dilution.? Issuing shares to buy back units from principals.

-4%

First American Financial Corp [FAF] Index investors sell off FAF as CLGX remains in the S&P 400.

-4%

Assured Guaranty Ltd [AGO] Determined sellers on light volume and no news.

-4%

Thoughts:

Group Price Movements for this Morning

Real Estate Mgmnt/Servic

1.2%

Reinsurance

0.0%

REITS-Health Care

-0.3%

Commercial Serv-Finance

1.1%

Diversified Banking Inst

0.0%

REITS-Storage

-0.3%

Finance-Consumer Loans

1.0%

Multi-line Insurance

0.0%

Commer Banks-Western US

-0.3%

Insurance Brokers

0.7%

Exchanges

0.0%

S&L/Thrifts-Central US

-0.4%

Life/Health Insurance

0.7%

Property/Casualty Ins

0.0%

Commer Banks-Central US

-0.5%

Other

0.5%

Fiduciary Banks

-0.1%

Invest Mgmnt/Advis Serv

-0.5%

Retail-Pawn Shops

0.4%

REITS-Hotels

-0.1%

REITS-Diversified

-0.5%

Real Estate Oper/Develop

0.4%

Commer Banks-Eastern US

-0.1%

REITS-Single Tenant

-0.5%

Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr

0.4%

Grand Total

-0.1%

Finance-Credit Card

-0.5%

REITS-Mortgage

0.4%

REITS-Office Property

-0.1%

S&L/Thrifts-Eastern US

-0.7%

REITS-Regional Malls

0.1%

REITS-Forestry

-0.1%

Finance-Auto Loans

-0.7%

Commer Banks Non-US

0.1%

REITS-Warehouse/Industr

-0.1%

Super-Regional Banks-US

-1.0%

REITS-Apartments

0.1%

REITS-Shopping Centers

-0.2%

Financial Guarantee Ins

-1.1%

S&L/Thrifts-Western US

0.1%

Commer Banks-Southern US

-0.2%

GSEs

-2.3%

I look at these companies for big news events that have occurred since the last close.? Often there isn?t any, but big changes here can be an indication that someone knows something, or there is trading noise.? After that, it is up to the analyst to dig.? Often, the dog that does not bark is the clue, as stocks move up or down on no news, as well as unexplained large spikes in volume, CDS spreads, and implied volatility of options.

Note: If I use the phrase ?better seller,? it does not mean ?sell.?? If I use the phrase ?better buyer,? it does not mean ?buy.?? ?Better seller? and ?better buyer? are bond portfolio manager terms that simply mean that if I were forced to take action on a security, what would I do as a trader in the short run, given the current news.

Disclosure: long ALL NWLI SAFT RGA AIZ PRE CB

Recent Portfolio Actions

Recent Portfolio Actions

It has been too long since I updated my portfolio, so here goes:

New Buys:

3/12/2010????? Seneca Foods Corp Cl A

5/10/2010????? PPL Corp

5/10/2010????? Sempra Energy

5/10/2010????? Constellation Energy

New Sales:

5/10/2010????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

5/10/2010????? Canadian National

Stocks removed for tax purposes:

10/15/2009????? SABESP

1/5/2010????????? SABESP

5/10/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

Rebalancing Buys:

11/4/2009??????? Valero Energy Corp

12/29/2009????? Ensco International Inc

1/25/2010??????? Nam Tai Electronics

2/8/2010????????? SABESP

2/10/2010??????? National Western Life Ins

5/4/2010????????? Total ADR

5/4/2010????????? Archer Daniels Midland

5/6/2010????????? Noble Corporation

Rebalancing Sales:

10/19/2009????? Conoco Phillips

10/22/2009????? Noble Corporation

10/23/2009????? Ensco International Inc

11/5/2009??????? Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

1/4/2010????????? National Presto Inds Inc

1/5/2010????????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

1/8/2010????????? Alliant Energy Corp

1/8/2010????????? Canadian National

3/1/2010????????? Safety Ins Group Inc

3/12/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

4/13/2010??????? Oracle Corporation

4/13/2010??????? Safeway Inc

4/13/2010??????? Northrop Grumman Corp

4/14/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

4/14/2010??????? SABESP

4/14/2010??????? Ensco International Inc

5/3/2010????????? Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

5/6/2010????????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

Thoughts

1)? I try not to trade too much.? For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.? As it is, for seven months, I have not made a lot of trades.

2) I tried to take some cyclicality off of the table on 5/10.? I end up with more utility exposure, but less of industrials and retail.? Having the portfolio 20% or so in utilities is quite a statement.? Utilities are designed for volatile conditions, when the degree of inflation is uncertain, because utilities have inflation passthrough on rates, while they are defensive in deflation.

3) Assurant and National Western are double weights.? The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.? Note that National Western is quite illiquid.? Do not place market orders to buy or sell.

4) In terms of balance sheets, and industry factors, this is my most conservative portfolio ever.

5) I still don?t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

6) I had some runners-up in my analyses: EIX DPL VVC

7 ) I think my portfolio is cheaper and more defensive now.

8 ) I have roughly 20% in cash, which is my limit for bearishness.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): ADM AIZ ALL CB CEG COP CSC CVX D DIIB ESV GPC IBA LNT NE NOC NPK NTE NWLI ORCL PEP PPL PRE RGA SAFT SBS SCG SENEA SRE SWY TOT VLO

3/12/2010 Seneca Foods Corp Cl A
5/10/2010 PPL Corp
5/10/2010 Sempra Energy
5/10/2010 Constellation Energy
Recent Portfolio Actions

Recent Portfolio Actions

Sorry, it’s been a while since I listed my equity portfolio moves.? I made the following trades yesterday:

New Buys:

  • Chubb
  • Computer Sciences Corp
  • Dominion Resources
  • Northrup Grumman
  • National Presto (beware, less liquid)
  • SCANA Corp
  • Safeway Corp
  • Total SA

New Sells:

  • iShares Brazil Fund
  • General Dynamics
  • Honda Motors
  • Mosaic Inc
  • Nucor
  • Vishay Intertechnology

And over the past few months, I made the following trades:

Rebalancing Buys:

  • Conoco Phillips
  • Mosaic Co
  • PartnerRe
  • Pepsico Inc
  • Safety Ins Group Inc
  • Shoe Carnival Inc
  • Valero Energy Corp
  • Vishay Intertech Inc

Rebalancing Sells:

  • Assurant Inc
  • Companhia De Saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo
  • Conoco Phillips
  • Dorel Inds Inc
  • Ensco International Inc
  • Industrias Bachoco SA ADR
  • iShares Inc MSCI Brazil Index Fund
  • Magna Intl Inc
  • Mosaic Co
  • Nam Tai Electronics Inc
  • National Western Life Insurance
  • PartnerRe
  • Pepsico Inc
  • Reinsurance Group Amer Inc
  • Shoe Carnival Inc (2)
  • Valero Energy Corp
  • Vishay Intertech Inc (2)

Thoughts

1)? I try not to trade too much.? For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.

2)? I consumed some cash today, enough to get me inside my 20% cash limit.? I don’t believe in the rally, but I maintain my discipline that I don’t let cash get too large.

3) I tried to take some cyclicality off of the table today.? I end up with a little more insurance, utility, and energy exposure, but less of industrials and basic materials.

4) Assurant and SABESP are still double weights.? The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.

5) In terms of balance sheets, and industry factors, this is my most conservative portfolio ever.

6) I still don’t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

7) I had some runners-up in my analyses: ACE AEE EE HELE TFX UGI

8 ) I think my portfolio is cheaper and more defensive now.

9) That said, I also raised my central band by 11% today, raising all of my target weights by that amount.? That makes me more likely to be a buyer than a seller, though the change caused no buys yesterday.

10) Dropping the iShares Brazil Fund seemed to be wise.? The run in the emerging markets has been huge, and Brazil is more export and commodity dependent than most.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): ADM AIZ ALL CB CNI COP CSC CVX D DIIB ESV GPC IBA LNT MGA NE NOC NPK NTE NWLI ORCL PEP PRE RGA SAFT SBS SCG SCVL SWY TOT VLO

Morning Financials

Morning Financials

I put out a short report each morning on financial stocks, giving a quick summary of the big movers, market tone, and what sub-industries are moving.? I am publishing a copy of it today here as a bonus for Aleph Blog readers.? Enjoy.? Comments welcome.

The information herein and the data underlying it has been obtained from sources that we believe are reliable, but no assurance can be given that this information , the
underlying data or the computations based thereon are accurate or complete or that the returns or yields described can be obtained. Neither the information nor any opinion
expressed constitutes a solicitation by us for the purchase or sale of any security. All prices are indications only.
David Merkel, CFA, FSA 16 July 2009
Morning Financials Update ? Big Movers
Top 20 Financial Stock Movers
Company [ticker]
News
Price Move
MGIC Investment Corp [MTG]
Adj. Loss/Shr $2.86 vs $1.04 Loss Est. Injecting $1 billion into in inactive subsidiary, allowing it to write new business. Wisconsin DOI goes along with it. Fitch Downgrades on Announced Restructuring Plan
12%
Pacific Capital Bancorp NA [PCBC]
No news materially driving the stock price
12%
CVB Financial Corp [CVBF]
Beats estimates. Adjusted EPS 19c vs 10c Estimate
11%
East West Bancorp Inc [EWBC]
Misses estimates. -1.83A v -0.42E. Aggressive credit management being employed — if true, problems may be smaller in the future.
11%
Umpqua Holdings Corp [UMPQ]
Beats estimates. Adjusted EPS 15c vs 9c Loss/Shr Loss Estimate
7%
Commerce Bancshares Inc/Kansas [CBSH]
Beats estimates. Adjusted EPS 49c vs 38c Estimate
7%
MB Financial Inc [MBFI]
Beats estimates. Adjusted EPS 16c vs 26c Loss/Shr Loss Estimate
6%
Charles Schwab Corp/The [SCHW]
Beats estimates 0.20A v 0.18E. Client assets down, which may push future earnings down.
-3%
Developers Diversified Realty [DDR]
No news materially driving the stock price
-5%
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc [HST]
Rated New `Underperform’ At Wedbush. Perhaps some sympathy from Marriott’s bad profit report.
-5%
Federal National Mortgage Asso [FNM]
Allison Says Housing Program Showing Signs of Success. Uh, really?
-5%
MBIA Inc [MBI]
No news materially driving the stock price
-6%
Cousins Properties Inc [CUZ]
Slashes 3Q dividend by 40 percent.
-6%
Stewart Information Services C [STC]
No news materially driving the stock price
-6%
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Cor [FRE]
Allison Says Housing Program Showing Signs of Success. I don’t see that at all.
-6%
First Commonwealth Financial C [FCF]
No news materially driving the stock price
-7%
CapitalSource Inc [CSE]
No news materially driving the stock price
-7%
American International Group I [AIG]
Prudential Said to Resume Talks Over AIG Japan Units. AIG Said to Ask Buyout Funds to Ally With Taiwan Firms on Taiwanese Life Unit.
-9%
Boston Private Financial Holdi [BPFH]
No news materially driving the stock price
-10%
CIT Group Inc [CIT]
US unlikely to aid CIT, which faces a likely bankruptcy. Can an independent commercial finance company survive tough times without a deposit franchise? I don’t think so.
-70%
The information herein and the data underlying it has been obtained from sources that we believe are reliable, but no assurance can be given that this information , the
underlying data or the computations based thereon are accurate or complete or that the returns or yields described can be obtained. Neither the information nor any opinion
expressed constitutes a solicitation by us for the purchase or sale of any security. All prices are indications only.
Thoughts:
? If CIT can?t get help, that means all entities seeking help should expect less help at the margin, or at least more sturm und drang.
? Banks and thrifts are leading and Commercial finance and GSEs are trailing.
? Speculative names doing badly today.
? Survivors in investment banking are picking up more business and profits.
? Rising unemployment is the biggest hidden risk to the financial economy at present. As jobs are lost, people default on more debts.
? Commercial and high-end residential real estate still under pressure.
? The short-term performance model for financial stocks recommends only Reinsurers here. They face lower risk on the asset side of the balance sheet.
? Whether insurers or banks, avoid equity-sensitive names here ? aim at companies that don?t have a high degree of sensitivity to stock market performance.
? The market in the short run is driven off of government policy, which is uncertain.
? Better to play it safe at this point. We have just experienced a very sharp bear market rally. Remember, sharp moves tend to reverse, slow moves tend to persist.
Group Price Movements for this Morning
Commercial Serv-Finance
1.3%
Other
-0.8%
REITS-Regional Malls
-1.3%
Commer Banks-Western US
0.6%
Property/Casualty Ins
-0.8%
Finance-Credit Card
-1.4%
Commer Banks Non-US
0.3%
Finance-Auto Loans
-0.8%
Diversified Banking Inst
-1.5%
S&L/Thrifts-Central US
0.3%
S&L/Thrifts-Eastern US
-0.9%
Commer Banks-Eastern US
-1.5%
Financial Guarantee Ins
0.1%
REITS-Forestry
-1.0%
Multi-line Insurance
-1.5%
Finance-Consumer Loans
-0.1%
REITS-Diversified
-1.0%
REITS-Shopping Centers
-1.5%
Fiduciary Banks
-0.2%
REITS-Health Care
-1.0%
REITS-Warehouse/Industr
-1.9%
Reinsurance
-0.3%
Real Estate Oper/Develop
-1.0%
Life/Health Insurance
-1.9%
REITS-Mortgage
-0.3%
REITS-Office Property
-1.0%
REITS-Apartments
-2.0%
Commer Banks-Central US
-0.5%
Grand Total
-1.1%
Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr
-2.5%
Insurance Brokers
-0.5%
REITS-Storage
-1.1%
Exchanges
-2.7%
Retail-Pawn Shops
-0.6%
Commer Banks-Southern US
-1.1%
REITS-Hotels
-3.9%
Real Estate Mgmnt/Servic
-0.6%
Invest Mgmnt/Advis Serv
-1.2%
Finance-Mtge Loan/Banker
-5.7%
REITS-Single Tenant
-0.6%
Super-Regional Banks-US
-1.3%
Finance-Other
-17.4%
I look at these companies for big news events that have occurred since the last close. Often there isn?t any, but big changes here can be an indication that someone knows something, or there is trading noise. After that, it is up to the analyst to dig. Often, the dog that does not bark is the clue, as stocks move up or down on no news, as well as unexplained large spikes in volume, CDS spreads, and implied volatility of options.
Disclosure: long ALL NWLI SAFT RGA AIZ PRE
Selling Hartford, Buying Canadian National

Selling Hartford, Buying Canadian National

Since the last time I wrote about my portfolio, things have been volatile.? Here are my actions since then:

New Buys

  • National Western Life Insurance
  • Canadian National Railway

New Sells — Hartford Financial

Rebalancing Buys:

  • Assurant (brnging it up to a double-weight)
  • Dorel Industries

Rebalancing Sells:

  • Allstate (2)
  • Assurant
  • Companhia De Saneamento Basico
  • General Dynamics Crp
  • Genuine Parts
  • Hartford Finl Svcs Group Inc (3)
  • Industrias Bachoco SA (2)
  • Ishares Inc MSCI Brazil Index Fund
  • Noble Corporation
  • Safety Ins Group Inc
  • Shoe Carnival Inc
  • Vishay Intertech Inc (3)

Comments

After the plunge, and the run, I scaled out of Hartford three times, and then sold because of the high odds that they will take the TARP money.? Taking TARP money has led to underperformance in the past, and though it looks like cheap capital, it can be a very expensive set of handcuffs to cut off.

If Allstate takes the TARP money, I will sell them as well, and buy a certain P&C reinsurer.? I suspect that they won’t take it — only the desperate take TARP money.

I replaced Hartford with National Western Life.? Little company, and illiquid.? If you follow me here, limit orders only.? It is a basic life an annuity company.? No debt.? Trades for half of book value.? Currently profitable, but future profits are uncertain.? One controlling investor, R. L. Moody, and the rest of the shareholder’s list reads like a “Who’s Who” of small cap value investing.? I have not reviewed the accounting in detail, but when I reviewed it in detail six years ago, I thought the accounting was more conservative than most insurance companies.

With all of the cash building up from rebalancing sales, I needed to add another name with a strong balance sheet.? I chose Canadian National.? Unlike US railroads, they go coast-to-coast — less need for loading and unloading.? Second, the valuation is not much higher than peers.? Third, the balance sheet is stronger than all peers.? Not that I think that any of the major North American railroads is at risk of failure, but it is unlikely that Canadian National will come under significant stress.

That’s all for now.? So far, it’s been a good year for me.? I’m running with cash at my upper 20% limit, so I am looking for safe and cheap ideas that would not get hit that badly in another pullback.

Full disclosure: long NWLI CNI DIIB.PK? AIZ ALL SBS GD GPC IBA EWZ NE SAFT SCVL VSH

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