Search Results for: Unstable

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Companies

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  • Cargill joins Wall Street banks as swap dealer http://t.co/vvamqbSPM0 Could b a good idea 4 any firm that does much commodities hedging $$ Feb 22, 2013
  • Office Depot To Buy OfficeMax? And Then There Were Two. http://t.co/VzkCs2aDWl 0 + 0 = -1 Combined company faces $AMZN undercutting them $$ Feb 21, 2013
  • U.S. Insurers Resist Push to Make Gun Owners Get Coverage http://t.co/8DvviX2jRU It hasn’t worked that way with cars; this is a good idea $$ Feb 21, 2013
  • $OMX & $ODP merge — market doesn’t like it, combined companies worth less than before the merger rumor emerged $$ http://t.co/sy41UOiY Feb 20, 2013
  • Buffett brand has more beans than Heinz http://t.co/9xdLHvic The investor has won every advantage in the deal, writes Alice Schroeder $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Bondholders Dislike Uncertainty in Berkshire-Heinz Deal http://t.co/vRylO1uj Bondholders, Buffett *never* assumes acquired debt $$ #patsies Feb 19, 2013
  • Annaly Reversing Slump as Denahan Tries to Dodge Fed http://t.co/eFkOQMtc $NLY changes its character as Fed crowds them out of RMBS $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • The Pitfalls of Dividend Yield in the Oil Patch http://t.co/CsUPn6T3 The higher the dividend yield the less $$ 2 pour in2 exploration/growth Feb 19, 2013
  • Reader?s Digest Is Bankrupt; Iconic Magazine Falters http://t.co/NYzgyqSQ 2 much debt & competition from internet; private equity failure $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Danone Stake Poses a Challenge for Heinz Investor Peltz http://t.co/P492n9ic Much harder 2 get changes in France than the US. Won’t work $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • US Airways Wins AMR as Horton Said to Wage Last CEO Push http://t.co/aqTIj0cD CEO job went 2 visionary who saw a way 2 create value $$ Feb 17, 2013
  • Amazon Sells Out Predator Drone Toy After Mocking Reviews http://t.co/14FOo6H1 Don’t like it keep quiet; mocking draws more attn & sales $$ Feb 17, 2013
  • What? Carl Icahn Just Thinks Selling Diet Shakes And Herbal Tea Is A Really Good Business http://t.co/tZAYwLRZ nuances of synthetic long $$ Feb 16, 2013
  • McGraw-Hill Credit Rating Cut by Moody?s After U.S. Sues S&P http://t.co/yV4DMich Less 2 this than some say; it’s just business, baby $$ Feb 16, 2013

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Rest of the World

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  • Waiting for a Crisis http://t.co/acZOK6tG Wishful thinking on this side of the Pacific, but China needs to reduce the size of government $$ Feb 20, 2013
  • Cyberwar With China Is Here, Like It or Not http://t.co/d0GYgZ5z Most systems can be compromised from inside by inviting someone 2 err $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Spanish Debt Grows by Euro146 Billion, Largest Ever Recorded; Debt-to-GDP Highest Since 1910 http://t.co/gvPQntX6 Spain will leave EZone $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • G20 currency truce shortlived as Japan mulls foreign bond buys http://t.co/nMpGhREw Japan decided G20 meeting gave a free pass to devalue $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • China?s New Leader Needs Grip on Wacko Next Door http://t.co/lEMu4aqM Instead, trade Taiwan for North Korea. Interests become aligned $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Saxo Bank CEO Says Euro Is Doomed as Currency Woes Resurface http://t.co/z3TekaAD CEO: “Right now we?re in one of those fake solutions” $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Billionaire Miner Fights Rivals to Halt Digs on His Ranch http://t.co/GwwtJW78 Interesting Aussie mining claims law; u only own top meter $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Mrs. Watanabe Dumping Australia Debt Signals Turn for Yen http://t.co/jzoAdZi7 JPY Retail FX speculators try to pick a top for the AUD $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • How China’s President Is Earning A Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/ETDm3nU1 If true, many unlawfully detained in China may be freed $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Ugliest Danish Banks Find No Buyers in Toxic Asset Trap http://t.co/r9pJyJbA 2 much leverage in system makes resolutions hard. Who can buy? Feb 18, 2013
  • BlackRock Sounds Covered Bond Collateral Alarm http://t.co/2x8TUlAd Weaker collateral & larger haircut did not work well 4 securitization $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • CDS Uncertainty Adds to Fear on Europe Bank Bonds http://t.co/iwe0OzAu Y don’t the protection buyers get paid by sellers? No auction poss $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Hugo Ch?vez Returns to Venezuela http://t.co/7zjjeqPZ I wouldn’t get 2 excited; rare that he would fully recover after so many operations $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Japan flirts with equity targets to drive a stake in the zombie economy http://t.co/nUqJzPXQ Targeting yields& equity prices doesn’t work $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • EU Economy and Horse Meat Scandal: Both Finishing last at the Gate – Germany to follow? http://t.co/bC79NXaW EZone Core falters, what2do? $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Celebrating the end of the eurozone affair ignores the heart of the matter http://t.co/qH8dbJcl Problems reappear after victory declared $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Group of 20 chiefs take stand on exchange-rate policies http://t.co/sCCweMmW Basically, nothing happened, everyone hopes it goes away $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Hollande Tiptoes Toward Raid on Pensions With EU Pressure http://t.co/i8MZZnCS No way to make the budget balance; needs many, too little $$ Feb 17, 2013
  • Walking-Pace Trains Spur $17 Billion India Rail Revamp http://t.co/75U6s3Ch I don’t believe in the BRIC nations; all have huge problems $$ Feb 16, 2013
  • Auto Keiretsu Wracked by Antitrust Probes http://t.co/slQiOR5d Friendly collusion 4 the purpose of quality, or profit? Not allowed in US $$ Feb 16, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Cardinal Dolan Preps for Conclave Vote on New Pope http://t.co/R0ffQ9Q76J “Bring Peanut Butter” & other tips for traveling Cardinals. 😉 $$ Feb 21, 2013
  • Sewage Status Grows as Resource for Utilities to Skiers http://t.co/MCKboprN2P Amazing what we can do2 convert waste to power $$ Feb 21, 2013
  • Gasoline Pump Prices Soaring on Refinery Repairs, Oil Rally http://t.co/98E0NlHy Rising crude prices & refinery outages raise gas prices $$ Feb 20, 2013
  • Ironing Out the Wrinkles?The Complexities of Madeleine L?Engle http://t.co/ZeU5HKNn As a kid, I loved ML, opinion has always fallen since $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Rotten Egg Gas Seen Offering Promise of Extending Life http://t.co/3GZYNK0f Hydrogen Sulfide – up to a limit we could all use more of it $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • What Doesn?t Kill Us Makes Us Stronger http://t.co/zB4cwRkY Small problems lead to product & service improvement & more robustness $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Close Encounter by Asteroids Makes Case for Scrutiny http://t.co/LA5dyO7k We humans always fight the last war; remember the avian flu? $$ Feb 16, 2013

 

Credit Conditions

 

  • Junk Bond Froth Seeps into Emerging Markets http://t.co/mIq7e1qt I prefer emerging market gov’ts to corporate junk, they are run better $$ Feb 20, 2013
  • Bubbles and fraud: A smoking gun? http://t.co/BBbEsqGn Easy profits always brings out the worst in people; no wonder fraud increases then $$ Feb 20, 2013
  • The Indianapolis 500 of Corporate Bonds Yields http://t.co/EpblxrM0 The trend chaser are blowing out of credit; avoid 4 now, b cautious $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Finra bond warning a real worrier http://t.co/E0Y5rI0x Dog bites man. Many have predicted long rates would rise & they haven’t (so far) $$ Feb 18, 2013
  • Debt Bubble Born of Easy Cash Prompts Swedish Rule Review http://t.co/BAuPbVVc $$ policy should not be used 2 stimulate; 2 much debt kills Feb 18, 2013
  • Super-prime?s invisible driver http://t.co/lrHsHjya Would u rather hold govt bonds or prime property? Which will lose less? @izakaminska $$ Feb 18, 2013

 

US Politics

 

  • Obama?s Deficit Commission Leaders Offer New Debt Plan http://t.co/SPlLstx0 50% cuts, 25% adjustments 2 Medicare, 25% close tax loopholes $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • How to Fix Too Big to Fail Without Taxpayer Bailouts: Rep. Campbell?s Plan http://t.co/7YGLejaK Plan is reasonable; receivership4BK banks $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Pentagon Budget Stuck in Last Century as Warfare Changes http://t.co/1Qqn5sGP More smaller weapons, lower tech, fewer ppl, more skill&mobile Feb 19, 2013
  • All-the-Right-Skills Immigrants Ride US Hiring Wave: Economy http://t.co/YQ5wMqxB Note many in US have those skills & get screened out $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Obama Golf With Woods in Florida Risks Muddling Message http://t.co/DPX5du27 Give Obama a break; he deserves a little fun too $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Fiscal trouble ahead for most future retirees http://t.co/tEMoFpdy I predicted 20 yrs ago: Many Baby Boomers won’t b able 2 retire $$ Feb 18, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Paulson Leads Funds to Bermuda Tax Dodge Aiding Billionaires http://t.co/KZINU1G9 After all that Paulson lost $$ rendering no tax savings Feb 19, 2013
  • Performance Tops Pedigree in Money Managers? Fortunes http://t.co/LUMTpchB Story of two $$ mgrs & how performance drove their stock prices. Feb 17, 2013
  • Upside: Why Most Value Investors Will Burn Out http://t.co/BMicKXex You have to be willing to look like an idiot & be patient 2b rewarded $$ Feb 16, 2013
  • Confidence on Upswing, Mergers Make Comeback http://t.co/lzg5cJ7y 2 early 2 say. Profit margins r2 high & interest rates 2 low; unstable $$ Feb 16, 2013

Wrong

  • Wrong: Let?s Downgrade S&P, Moody?s Ratings Oligopoly http://t.co/tbh1eBIH Writer does not understand the needs of regulators or bond buyers Feb 19, 2013
  • Wrong: Swelling US Labor Force Keeps Fed at Ease http://t.co/V6vKs01q Every statistic I c on labor force participation says otherwise $$ Feb 19, 2013

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Replies & Retweets

  • @TheStalwart Hey Joseph, thou hardest working guy on Wall Street, Congrats on your promotion at BI — it is well-deserved Feb 21, 2013
  • If I were long $HNZ now, I would sell; likely there is no better deal coming along, & upside is only 0.5% $$ http://t.co/TiCHLQm7GK Feb 20, 2013
  • “Johnson will report to 3G; they have all of the incentives to cut costs and recognize synergies?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/38KbUtiq $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • SEC EDGAR seems to be down, at least the search function isn’t working… Feb 19, 2013
  • @TheStalwart pick a medium-nice suburb of Rome. I grew up in the county of Waukesha, WI, FWIW. Feb 19, 2013
  • “These aren’t bargains; buying them @ these prices assumes they grow rapidly for the next 5 years.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/nq2fSMXe $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • ‘ @groditi Yes, reviewing it tonight. Agree about conviction; book’s only drawback is that if you get his emails, not much new $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • “When I analyze mutual funds, I look at active share and process — are they doing it right? Do?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/uZ8g1Exi $$ Feb 19, 2013
  • Illegal, you used “US postal service” & “innovate” in the same sentence $$ RT @ReformedBroker: CAN THE US POSTAL SERVICE STILL INNOVATE? Feb 18, 2013

 

FWIW

 

  • My week on twitter: 34 retweets received, 3 new listings, 49 new followers, 39 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Feb 21, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Politics & Policy

 

  • Was the Budget Deficit Worth the Fight? http://t.co/jDn9r7DC Budget deficits are an assault on the quality of our money & savings $$ @carney Nov 24, 2012
  • None Dare Call It Default http://t.co/4o0lnQoe A nicer term for what’s about to sock the middle class is ‘entitlement reform.’ $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Judge Pens New Bankruptcy Chapter http://t.co/6V5cUQjS US BK Court Judge Thomas Bennett takes on the Jefferson County, AL Ch 9 filing $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Banks reportedly lining up against Elizabeth Warren committee spot http://t.co/YRAId5TQ & http://t.co/LFXTCZEb I say give her a chance $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Globalism goes backward http://t.co/h6kt67Lz As global growth slows, so does its handmaiden, globalization. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • 2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in 4 Fearsome Ways http://t.co/iZjmM1ZA Pre-election spree, post-reduce deficit, class war, prior laws bite $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • FHA running out of money http://t.co/L1M7lRIK ?We take the findings of the independent actuary very seriously…? loss reserves too low $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Pension cuts could boost state?s Social Security costs http://t.co/61jicHRM If benefits drop below certain level, have 2 pay SS/Med taxes $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Special Dividends Surge Fourfold as US Tax Increase Looms http://t.co/vPVaLNFU Last chance 2 reward shareholders w/low div tax rates $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • http://t.co/LJnienxh San Bernardino: How California law, police/firemen, CALPERS, dysfunctional politics, & bad pension acctg rules killed Nov 19, 2012

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus http://t.co/pJ5FTplo Gold prices react2cost of carry; neg in real terms now $$ #zoom Nov 24, 2012
  • Paula Broadwell?s Radar Tracks Generals, Not Fed http://t.co/WglEhJFo Bernanke’s/Yellen’s ideas will crumble from stagflation $$ @cabaum Nov 24, 2012
  • Abe threatens to turn BOJ into an unlimited piggy bank for the government http://t.co/LxWwmlyP Eventually the real economy will rebel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • It’s a Good Bet the Fed Doesn’t Know What It’s Doing http://t.co/zG6mepy0 Couldn’t pick a worse Fed 4 crisis: imagines it knows what 2 do $$ Nov 19, 2012

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Hewlett-Packard

 

  • Hurdling H-P: Oracle Shows Way in M&A http://t.co/fiJvmT2N Point is $ORCL ‘s older deals have been productive, $HPQ ‘s not. $$ FD:+$ORCL Nov 23, 2012
  • H-P?s Deal Process Bypassed CFO Pre-Whitman http://t.co/WfawtYfh Note that Cathie Lesjak opposed the Autonomy purchase. Smart lady $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Goodwill Hunting http://t.co/ghFrEDlY @epicureandealmaker takes down a generally cruddy Bloomberg article on $HPQ & Goodwill accounting $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Note to all writing about Hewlett Packard: the ticker is $HPQ, not $HP, which is Helmerich & Payne, which drills oil and gas wells $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Ironic in many ways. HP should have been happy with their engineer-driven pre-Fiorina culture. It did a lot… http://t.co/rqXEW5Bi Nov 20, 2012

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Loose Monetary Policy Harms Fringe Nations

 

  • Debt Burden Adds to Won Gains in Crimping Korea Rebound http://t.co/y6uHfFEw Loose monetary policy creates debt bubble in S. Korea $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • S&P: Australia is Spain in waiting http://t.co/usllSlBt Heavily indebted financial systems can be like the snowpack prior 2 an avalanche $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Prison of Debt Paralyzes West http://t.co/ofJXWyLu Government debt after a point does not stimulate, but perpetuates unproductive policy $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Purple Palace Abandoned Shows China Shadow-Banking Risk http://t.co/tmg6jPhy China is like Japan 23 years ago: fearsome & malinvested $$ Nov 20, 2012

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Rest of the World

 

  • Egypt Presidential Decree Sparks Protests http://t.co/a5YUcvtN Anyone surprised that the Muslim Brotherhood came out on top? State Dept Nov 23, 2012
  • Can Xi Jinping bring about the change China needs? http://t.co/i3XGKZBJ Long article on the new Chinese leader; very tough road to travel $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Pipeline Would Loosen Russian Stranglehold On European Natural Gas Supply http://t.co/3zPUInTZ Where there is a will there is a way $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro http://t.co/nCJ7rLiZ Germany won’t want a banking union; their banks have issues Nov 20, 2012
  • http://t.co/MSqwtq4u China unlikely to make shift to consumption, b/c it means granting freedom to the people & reducing party cronyism $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Personal Finance

 

  • After Sandy damage, insurance adjusters may bring more bad news http://t.co/GTAhE9x3 If odds of getting flooded > 1% get flood insurance $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Tax Moves to Make Now http://t.co/TmoaGOCC Balanced piece; worth a read. Assumes we don’t go over the fiscal cliff: a deal is struck $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Lenders Rev Their Engines http://t.co/5jz3pt3l Surge in Demand for Auto Loans Spurs Push Into Sector; Subprime Is a Big Draw $$ Nov 23, 2012
  • For ‘Credit Invisibles,’ A Market Takes Shape http://t.co/4l849dmK A blast from the past; using payment histories 2 establish credit $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • apparent mojo http://t.co/lDNmxD1s @researchpuzzler does homework, comes to correct conclusion on a tiny junk fund featured in the WSJ $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Draining Away! http://t.co/hQAqzE9M Universal life policies suffer from low interest rates. B sure 2 check the gteed minimum rate $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • The Great Thanksgiving Hoax http://t.co/kwbE39ee Strangers were the lazy ones; like the Hutterites the Saints could have made socialism work Nov 21, 2012
  • Archbishop Says Church Lost Credibility on Women Bishops http://t.co/n7XkjfDM The “laity” understands the Bible better than the priests $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Why One Poll Says 45% Would Rather Skip Christmas http://t.co/zwwqY00R Costs a lot; nativity means much to Christians, Christmas is made-up Nov 20, 2012
  • Windows 8 killed my PC http://t.co/slcTSRVA No operating system should expect 2b equally good touch vs keyboard, tablet vs laptop, etc $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • Kill the Password: Y a String of Characters Can?t Protect Us Anymore http://t.co/jPoLzKpK Long but worth it; multifactor ID is the future $$ Nov 20, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Kyle Bass gives it to us with both barrels http://t.co/yZLt36kW Very long. Worth it if you want to see what he is up to in investing. $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Mismeasurement of Pensions Before and After Retirement http://t.co/DwE869Js The full paper, & you don’t have to pay NBER a cent $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • In a Slow Market, Wait for Compelling Values Says Johnson http://t.co/lf891lb5 Expects 5%-ish returns 2013; unusual 2 get small returns $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Tech Sets Correction Course http://t.co/ct7yaWcb Largest sector of the market is feeling soggy, which does not bode well 4 the rest $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Why Mutual Fund Guardians Are Failing http://t.co/UMvk4AAB Old/good article on the flaws of mutual fund governance; skewed incentives $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Investment Falls Off a Cliff http://t.co/GVqnEdLH US Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty; unstable policy Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Other Companies

 

  • I know the basics on a lot of companies but is the first time I have heard of Schiff Nutrition International $SHF http://t.co/jxHIdf1v $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Judge Sees Return to ?Liquidation Scenario? http://t.co/OeDI3sTX Twinkies will survive, but many who produce them will not $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • Hostess Seen Attracting Bids for Assets From Flowers http://t.co/vAu1o7Wv The brands will get bought; the value is there, not in plants $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Drillers Begin Reusing ‘Frack Water’ http://t.co/nOiR3sy5 Energy Firms Explore Recycling Options 4 Industry That Uses Water Like Chicago Nov 19, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Bad Headline: Wall St Kept Winning on Mortgages Upending Homeowners http://t.co/fuKDx4ss Most tricky mtges not originated by Wall St $$ Nov 19, 2012
  • Wrong: S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan http://t.co/jNJ1x0SU When will they learn *not* 2 use P/E 4 mkt valiuation? $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @PlanMaestro Thanks — missed that. Nov 23, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I just can’t believe the 1.5 Billion figure for the Earth’s carrying capacity; even the Club of Rome is more optimistic, no? Nov 23, 2012
  • “How many lines can be drawn in a 2D plane such that they are equidistant from 3 non-collinear points?” 3… http://t.co/QQkn7IcR Nov 23, 2012
  • Grantham is outside of his skill set here, and should be ignored. Also, global population will top out at… http://t.co/ZACbqPQO Nov 23, 2012
  • Nothing against Bill McBride. He deserves praise from all of us. There are three missing pieces though, and… http://t.co/Dfs50uGQ Nov 21, 2012
  • . @Dvolatility H-P CDS Curve Flattens on Write-Down http://t.co/9vWEDzcZ Early buyers of $HPQ protection made decent money, late less $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility $HPQ CDS spreads did forecast the spread widening, but not the magnitude. It also forecast the stock price move also $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • @japhychron @TFMkts @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Or, does the negative tangible book have an impact on modeling? $HPQ $$ Nov 21, 2012
  • “You can count beans and trace them back to their sources, good. But can you adequately question the?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/JS3Jbtnb Nov 21, 2012
  • @dvandeventer @Dvolatility Any read on the level 5Y CDS is trading at? Used to have a BBG terminal, but don’t now… Nov 21, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Where does the $HPQ CDS trade now? Nov 21, 2012
  • @qusmablog Much of the world has to go through a “failure cycle” before “normal growth” can reboot. Many entrenched interests don’t want it. Nov 21, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Also not good for the WSJ 2 write about a small fund w/short track record… bigger problem $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense @researchpuzzler Apologies, Chou Income did beat the Barclays Agg since inception http://t.co/VwYvIVYj Carry does it $$ Nov 20, 2012
  • @CEOofmyFUTURE longer term measures like the Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price to resources, & Hussman has a measure also Nov 19, 2012
  • @BloombergNews Who’s in charge of this page: http://t.co/2sJ5NEDK They changed it last week and made it less useful $$ Nov 19, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Notable & Honorable $$ RT @Nati2de: Larry Hagman was married to the same woman since 1954. Impressive, especially for a Hollywood actor. Nov 24, 2012
  • Growth comes when capital, labor & resources have fair prices RT @BloombergView: Greece needs growth, not austerity | http://t.co/f620QBRU Nov 21, 2012
  • RT @retheauditors: #1 cause of accounting fraud is revenue recognition issues and #1 industry for accounting fraud is technology/softwar … Nov 20, 2012
  • Gracias, no se habla $$ RT @besanson: #FunAndFinance Interest Rate Swaps and LIBOR in 5 minutes // Thanks or RT http://t.co/zu2LP7Nx Nov 20, 2012
  • Torture data until it confesses something $$ RT @Alea_: Does ?Statistical Significance? Imply ?Actually Significant?? http://t.co/BBTfUThF Nov 20, 2012
  • RT @finemrespice: The Federal Housing Administration stands against all prior biological evidence that primates are capable of forming m … Nov 19, 2012
  • Buy on the rumor, sell on the news $$ RT @BloombergNews: S&P 500 rises most in two months amid budget deal optimism | http://t.co/yyR2uiSi Nov 19, 2012

 

Blog News

 

  • My week on twitter: 75 retweets received, 4 new listings, 50 new followers, 92 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 22, 2012

 

On Hucksters

On Hucksters

Posted on by David Merkel

I get my share of requests for help.? Some are from naive friends (but not so naive that they don’t ask me) are solicited on Nigerian scams.? A few quick analyses, and I can tell them: don’t do it.? This is a scam.

Then there are people who trot a business idea past me.? Some of the ideas sound pretty good, but upon further examination, I wonder why it hasn’t worked so far.? Probing that, the answer is that “business partners failed me.”? Mmm… I can understand that once or twice but when it repeats, it makes me look at the entrepreneur.

There was one guy who had a compelling idea regarding health insurance that I thought was promising, and so I let him into my network of contacts, while saying to them “This might be promising or not.? There are some good ideas here, but he is too certain of his views, and that worries me.”? A variety of talented executives looked at his idea, and passed.? A friend of mine gave it some attention, thought it had promise, and he met with him, worked with him, but he proved unstable.? In the end, he blamed us.

That typifies hucksters.? Someone else is always to blame, and they have this great untapped concept, but no one will help fund their genius.

So now, I have a client who approached me regarding an investment in the energy sector pitched to him by a friend.? I help my clients.? If they have investment issues away from me, I will take some time to give them my opinion.

But here’s the problem:

  1. The illustrated returns are too good to be true.
  2. The CEO has no experience operating an energy company.
  3. The CEO’s career has gone here and there, but has not amounted to much, such that he can’t fund a $500K project on his own.
  4. All of the helpers/directors in the illustration document have other jobs now, and may or may not be available to help if the project develops.
  5. Some of them have overstated their resumes, or have stated things that can’t verified.
  6. Some board members are questionable.
  7. The opportunities, if true, are of a reasonable size such that small cap public E&P companies could take advantage of the opportunities.
  8. The core idea is that there are a lot of small lazy oil producers who are unwilling to invest to improve output.
  9. The pitchbook mixes in gold mining and clever trading of energy contracts — those are different businesses.? I want developmental stage businesses to focus.
  10. If the first opportunity costs only$500K, you mean the whole group of interested parties doesn’t have $500K to invest?? I don’t want to invest where the management/board is not invested to the hilt.

I don’t see this as a valid concept, and will tell my friend/client to not invest.

All that said, I want to say to all my readers that good investing considers uncertainty, and focuses on the possibility of loss.? Bad investing focuses on possible gains.

Good investing sardonically asks “Why am I the lucky one?“? There are a lot of Baby Boomers out there who have not done well, and are looking for one miraculous venture to give them the retirement that they dreamed of.? They will take chances with the money of others that they would never do with their own.

To my readers: be wary of private investment opportunities.? Beware of those that are very certain they will succeed, but they need your money to succeed.? The certainty is incompatible with the request for external funds in most cases.

Hucksters are always certain; good investors are skeptical.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Insurance

 

  • Insurers Must Boost Reserves for Residential Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Pretty trivial; change small, not worth making $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The Randian and the Bailout http://t.co/45wGJSo2 Without a tax gift from the US Tsy, $AIG couldn’t pay off the bailout http://t.co/2O4k7vpA Oct 25, 2012
  • For that last tweet, full disclosure, long $AIZ for clients and me Oct 24, 2012
  • Assurant Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/pTbHUunV Over 8.75 yrs $AIZ has shrunk its share count from 142M to 78M $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Weschler Rise From Grace Leads to Role Advising Buffett http://t.co/uUlYUPVK Interesting tale of a guy who can deal4 & value companies $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Goldman Sachs Creates a Dividend+Buybacks Measure, & 4 Insurer Stocks Shine http://t.co/myQ8Ga1e I own 2 of them 4 clients. Which 2? $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again http://t.co/5EO5Ejve Defend exports, import inflation, asset bubbles “Our currency, but your problem.” Oct 25, 2012
  • Approach risks ?distorting? decisions & ?it might be economically inefficient 2try2 push prices up so much,? Shiller http://t.co/Bs5GJPGX Oct 24, 2012
  • Redacted Version of the October 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/2jOMkLje Note: CPI inflation is at 2%, also inflation expectations rising $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • FOMC Statement: http://t.co/E2BOFdrr Oct 24, 2012
  • “We fail 2c the direct link, or even an indirect link, btw the size of the Fed’s balance sheet & the unemp rate” http://t.co/bM149U5Z $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Buffett: ‘”I get a little worried about continuously expanding” the Fed’s balance sheet, he said on CNBC.’ http://t.co/KWIVYBIS $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Traders Calling Singer?s Bluff on Intervention as Koruna Gains http://t.co/Y1ml4EZ4 Czech National Bank playing with fire, will burn $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Would mean that the external effect of loose monetary policy have been played out, & the next big move is coming (but from where)? $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Worst Carry Trades Show Central Banks at Stimulus Limit http://t.co/IDxi6uVq Interesting thought: if carrytraders can’t make money… $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Fiscal Cliff

 

  • Firms Hit Brakes Before Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Tap brakes is more like it. Most think we won’t go over the cliff #gridlock $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • Aha! Here’s The REAL Reason Corporate Executives Are Freaking Out About The Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/oS8VZpsi Favors initiatives of Dems $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Other

 

  • How Supap Kirtsaeng?s Textbooks Idea Led to Supreme Court http://t.co/h1CDWk1q What rights exist to re-sell something that you bought? $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The Plot to Destroy America’s Beer http://t.co/3ElPpvvx A tale of cost-cutting, quality reductions. Light beers ascendant. $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • Sandy Nears Jamaica, Forecasters Weigh New England Threat http://t.co/R1HNSDm8 High Incidence, Low Power 4 Tropical Storms in 2012 $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Calling All Germs http://t.co/BkfuReQq Cellphones Are Great for Sharing Photos?and Bacteria; Cleaning May Harm Screens $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Romney?s Air Force Comparison Misses U.S. Edge in Jets http://t.co/3lFkg4KL There r some situations where more lower tech jets would help Oct 24, 2012
  • Dean, Marathon Split-Offs on Tap http://t.co/m5OLbAuI Post-split $DF looks interesting, if boring. More room 2 focus $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Shale Glut Becomes $2 Diesel Using Gas-to-Liquids Plants http://t.co/sjUDsrVK This is the Holy Grail, because gasoline is tough2produce $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The internal combustion engine is far from dead http://t.co/Ewa60lrw Most real improvements in energy efficiency deal w/fossil fuels $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Americans Buying Fewer New Cars in Lifetime http://t.co/viB6dIlU long-term probably not a good sign; autos drive a lot of the economy $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • The Myth of Affordable Energy – Interview with Ed Dolan http://t.co/8jWI1faC Energy efficiency is increasing. Full cost pricing desirable $$ Oct 20, 2012

 

Demographics

 

  • Russian Funds Band Together to Repel Government Cash Grab http://t.co/72KWo3Bg Gotta b careful on pension funds cuz govts like 2 raid them Oct 26, 2012
  • More Americans delaying retirement until their 80s http://t.co/dZM4Tmqm This is the way it should be. Retirement s/b 4-5 years at most Oct 25, 2012
  • Can Japan?s Elderly Become Its Growth Engine? http://t.co/eqhsu54i This seems like wishful thinking to me. Spending from savings <> wages $$ Oct 24, 2012

 

Financials

 

  • U.S. securities regulator questions need for new broker standard http://t.co/iNUVJKIp Extending fiduciary standards 2 brokers in question Oct 24, 2012
  • Forcing frequent failures http://t.co/OL6WSfOM @interfluidity hits a home run in dealing with bank failures, & how to regulate Oct 24, 2012
  • Low Rates Pummel Banks http://t.co/577Fsc1i Borrowers Benefit, but Industry Lending Profits Hit Lowest Level in Three Years $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Marsico: When Going Private Goes Wrong http://t.co/Vxyc40u7 June 2007 was the wrong time 2 LBO, then performance lags $$ My sympathies2them Oct 23, 2012
  • 3 key money topics Romney-Obama debates ignored http://t.co/7j79IQ4V Housing prices, Investor protections & Retirement Savings $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • The end of stock market crashes? http://t.co/VjIALNEm I’m sorry, but the conclusion is bogus. Even if its works, only some could escape $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Mortgage risks underestimated, economists conclude http://t.co/TFDpqz70 FHA uses a model that leads it to underestimate delinquency risk $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Annaly Says Michael Farrell Dies After Cancer Diagnosed http://t.co/n5VNgi8m He was kind2me ~2000; willing2share ideas w/little me $$ $NLY Oct 22, 2012
  • Mortgage REITs: Not Just Yet http://t.co/20kPVBs2 I would be careful here & reduce exposure… they are always unstable vehicles $$ Oct 21, 2012
  • The Winner for Investors Is… http://t.co/eBQM5Ws4 @jasonzweigwsj points out the connection between returns & politics is tenuous $$ Oct 21, 2012

 

Economy

 

  • Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump http://t.co/9q87q63I This is the US economy. We can’t support workers relative2profit Oct 26, 2012
  • Weak Tea at Unilever Persists Amid Innovation at Rivals http://t.co/ryqjkEof Did not even know that Lipton was a Unilever brand $$ $UL $UN Oct 24, 2012
  • Doom Heralded at Hayman by Widening Trade Deficit: Japan Credit http://t.co/CZS09whs Japan?s debt is the ?cleanest dirty shirt.? Not. $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Hunger Stalks My Father?s India Long After Starvation End http://t.co/dkVTXxaO Long article, makes me grateful that I can feed my kids $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Electrolux, Philips Warn Of US Slowdown http://t.co/6k5hxTe2 Another soggy data point; less demand 4 bigger-ticket consumer items $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Ya, true RT @glenntyrpa: @barnejek @AlephBlog @sikorskiradek Yea. When did Japan invade China? Was that 1930? 🙂 we Americans forget. Oct 26, 2012
  • RT @PragCapitalist: Today’s financial tip: don’t ever buy a boat. Instead, find a friend with a boat. If necessary, buy the friend. … Oct 24, 2012
  • Clever RT @BradErvin1: @AlephBlog @PragCapitalist This is Buffett, courtesy legacy @kevindepew articles @Minyanville http://t.co/dGTNG9kl $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Stinks, just stinks RT @ritholtz: THE SELLSIDE: SAME AS IT EVER WAS Courthouse News Service http://t.co/K9LDmj5m via @CourthouseNews $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • RT @KathrynTully: The last of Sarah Thornton’s top reasons for quitting art market surely belongs in top 10 reasons not to be a journo. … Oct 24, 2012
  • RT @emckean: LOVE THIS RT @aniajakubek: There’s a Polish saying that means “Not my problem” & literally translates to “Not my circus … Oct 24, 2012
  • SIFMA gets an infamous big name to speak to them RT @LaurenLaCapra: #greenspan http://t.co/rjVlCfV5 Oct 23, 2012
  • At my house too RT @retheauditors: Halloween is dead to me. Oct 22, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • #FF @NickTimiraos @carney @grossdm @annsaphir @ritholtz @ToddSullivan @PlanMaestro @RolfeWinkler @LaurenLaCapra @davidgaffen @jennablan $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • @TraderNewsFeed No, I don’t think that. I think we should enjoy our work, and enjoy it for as long as we can, until we can no longer work $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • @rjwile True, but that’s the price of not saving enough. There is no right to a retirement. Someone send the EU the memo. $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I largely agree. Reducing the real value of debts would help. My only fear is that nominal incomes might not grow much $$ Oct 25, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial Missed that, thanks. Still, the Chain-weighted PCE deflator is 1.5% yoy at present. Oct 25, 2012
  • @barnejek oops Oct 24, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist A boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money $$ That said, the recession created a lot of used boats 4 sale Oct 24, 2012
  • @tebaho I am not a Romney backer Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein lifted the stake above 50% by 1995. Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein In 1977, GEICO was ~6% of his public investments, before $BRK.B acquired 33% of the company by 1980, and buybacks + Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein In 1981, GEICO was ~30% of his public investments — no data on how big his private investments were then $BRK.B $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein 1996-7 around 16% of pretax income. Prior to that, it was not wholly owned, and so Buffett acctd 4 it as an investment $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein $BRK.B would not want to live without GEICO, but in my opinion, it could live without it Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein It’s about 5% of BRK’s pretax profits. The float it generates is very short and is only 5% of liabilities. Oct 24, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist It’s a conglomerate fueled by a set of huge insurance companies, where assets r sourced privately & publicly $$ $BRK.B Oct 24, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro @aarontask @TheStalwart I think it is spurious correlation b/c I c many other variable that r weak. US economy is flat. $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @felixsalmon In the NT Greek, there r2 words for God’s will, &1 tells u God ordains everything, the other, he doesn’t approve everything Oct 24, 2012
  • @CflGator I would ask the question, how is $TGT going to deploy the capital? The answer probably lies there. Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen America’s politicians have always made appeals based on religion, & then abandoned the religious voters that support them (not new) Oct 24, 2012
  • @joshuademasi I realize with Japan, it is unlikely 4 there 2b an external default, until the external debt gets big enough Oct 24, 2012
  • @aarontask This is a stock versus flow issue. The banks reap capital gains now, but it will reduce their future interest margins/income $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @CflGator Think they are trying to free up capital for alternative uses. Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen But all people have unprovable a priori opinions, and many will affect their views on public policy, whether “religious” or not Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen It becomes the same paradox that philosophers go through with respect to the concept of free will vs determinism Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen Even 2a Christian like me, God’s will is a highly nuanced, b/c there r 2 words in NT Greek 4 “will” & they mean different things Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen One of my close friends came into existence as a result of a rape. Two good people adopted him; biological mother was courageous Oct 24, 2012
  • . @aarontask will look for it — if anyone has a link 2 it, pass it 2 me Oct 24, 2012
  • @joshuademasi Nations with their own currencies don’t have to default on debts. I think some will choose to default for political reasons $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • “This brings up something @ritholtz would say ~ blog traffic goes up during a crisis?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9U0OxjLe $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @joshuademasi Not sure he will lose; he has a decent chance of being correct. Japan has preceded the global economy for past 20 years $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • “5. Tadas, as you have said before, investment/finance blogging is hard. And many of the best of us?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/EuaE0hmB Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett I distrust polls generally. I am not a Romney supporter. Most statistical comments in the media r not well-founded $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett Stratification matters more. The size was smaller than most polls I c, & instant senses of who 1r often not correct Oct 23, 2012
  • @DUNNER2 @CBSNews Now there was a poll that no one asked for, the sample size was far too small, but actually had a real impact. Sad. Oct 23, 2012
  • @Shwaver should be more like 5% if the poll is well stratified, and most polls aren’t Oct 23, 2012
  • @thejudge1082 @cbsnews I would criticize that as well. Most polls are too small and not well stratified Oct 23, 2012
  • @nmariecrumbie @DJDougMadrid @cbsnews I am *not* a backer of Romney. I am voting for the Constitution Party. I am a statistician, are you? Oct 23, 2012
  • @Justsaying1104 @CBSNews size *always* matters. I am a statisticiam by training. The hyper-short news cycle forced out a poll Oct 23, 2012
  • @Justsaying1104 @cbsnews of course size matters — what I object to is trying to get instant answers to what people are thinking $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @ituzzip On a 500 person poll the error bounds are wider +/- 5%. But Rs answer polls less often than Ds. Oct 23, 2012
  • @JW28 Sorry, I am not a Romney backer Oct 23, 2012
  • @DJDougMadrid I don’t believe in instant, & I am voting 3rd party. Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett Most polls I see are double that, it was still small, given the short time after the debate. Oct 23, 2012
  • @CBSNews Small sample size Oct 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I think you are fair and balanced, because A third of the time I agree, a third I disagree, and a third I an in-between. $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @wallstCS FD: long $SFG — You do realize that revenue is not a useful valuation metric for insurers, right? Earnings & Book r relevant $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • @groditi @GaelicTorus it drives a lot of technology development, materials science, design (or lack thereof), advertising, energy efficiency Oct 22, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 No, the point is that corrupt governments tend to spawn corruption in society Oct 20, 2012
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Sorry I missed last week.? Thanks to those who like this.

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Black Monday and the Greenspan put http://t.co/f9nvCtLd Initial error of Alan Greenspan. Fine-tuning monetary policy 2 remove volatility $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • Southeast Asia Seen Leading Rate Increases Next Year http://t.co/KFsz14Wj I doubt it; $$ laxity is the rule of the time; tough 2 fight Oct 19, 2012
  • Wall Street CMOs Crushed as Sales @ 3-Yr Low http://t.co/n4avsQeR Wouldn’t call a 15% drop “crushed.” Fed feeding on their collateral $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Fed-Induced Stock P/E Gains Seen Ending Soon http://t.co/FdN3zvgm Effects of QE3 s/b fully anticipated by now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Currency Wars: US Attack http://t.co/XbjCmjhB Axel Merk criticizes Bernanke’s claim that US monetary policy isn’t a major prob 4 emg mkts $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Yes, it is more complex, but easy developed country monetary policy does make life tough for emerging… http://t.co/qPiFz9pQ Oct 15, 2012

 

Financial Blogging

 

  • The Critic Wall Street Loves to Lunch With http://t.co/ZdomDj3R @felixsalmon one of the leaders of financial blogging gets profiled here $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • 6 blogs u should be reading http://t.co/7aohlAcp @reformedbroker @thestalwart @calculatedrisk @pragcapitalist @convertbond & Bess Levin Oct 18, 2012

 

Hoisington

 

  • Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • “During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
  • A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
  • How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
  • These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule?indeed, ?nearly not observable.? Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • “Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the ?wealth effect? of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior Tweet quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
  • QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

 

Rest of the World

  • Devastating Photos Of India’s Illegal Coal Mines http://t.co/iiuN8bo9 Government nationalizes coal mines; mafia springs up2 mine coal $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • Why China Has The Worst Farms In The World http://t.co/zFnHnLH8 Worst in the sense of productivity per worker; they have lots of workers $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • Why Indians Are Getting Poorer http://t.co/PMyTpfEC Over past year, the Indian currency lost around 20% of its value against the US $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • China Faces Tough Choice on Growth http://t.co/i0i1n35l Does the CCP continue to favor short-term self-interest, or long-term power? $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ?97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

 

Financial Reform

 

  • A Simpler Way to End Too Big to Fail http://t.co/z680Sq1q Limit non-deposit liabilities; banks will scream; worthy 2b tried $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • EU, Japan Warn Against New US Swaps Rules http://t.co/9F7hTHpy Technical efficiency of mkts is less important than resiliency of mkts $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Ex-GE Bankers Convicted of Municipal Bond Bid-Rig Scheme http://t.co/fFnANPyk 4 years of jail time; restitution plus 20% would b better $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Swaps Collateral Costs May Increase Under Rules Weighed by SEC http://t.co/hbrVnyHx Raises costs some, probably the right idea $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Treasurers Worry Over Accounting for MMF Changes http://t.co/RtF6jlve Geithner tries MMF reform. Better: http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Oct 16, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Gasoline prices _ finally _ begin to slide http://t.co/zuEXNaIx Refineries finally catch up w/maintenance, outages & demand $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • First oil nears for Kazakhstan’s supergiant field http://t.co/Bzx5q6Td Kazakhstan reduces the amount of time that foreigner scan profit $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • California Asks Court to Reinstate Carbon Fuel Standard http://t.co/gLqnqTdj I am happy that I left California at age 27; unrealistic $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Gas Market Stung by Rapid Traders http://t.co/UI9DqJjI HFT and “news” trading games in the futures markets. Running stops is not new $$ Oct 16, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Spanish Borrowing Costs Ease http://t.co/evRNryY7 It won’t last, but enjoy it 4 now. $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Retirement No Option for Older Workers in Europe?s Crisis http://t.co/KgjUYc01 Problem is greater in Europe because of lower fertility $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
  • IMF?s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • IMF Sees ?Alarmingly High? Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • Dem convention used corporate cash, despite pledge http://t.co/vCJuCrSa No one is truly a politician until they break a promise $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Obama Pursuing Leakers Sends Warning to Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/hZ86Cx6O Hard to believe, but Obama outdoes Bush, Jr. 4 opacity $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Romney?s Rates Seen Spurring Growth Too Little 2 Late http://t.co/fcogGy0V Nice 2c Obama & Romney competing 4 who can harm economy most $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • A123 Bankruptcy Gives Romney New Example of Green-Energy ?Loser? $$ $AONE http://t.co/gR2LvxRV Make green energy advocates take Physics Oct 17, 2012
  • Sorry, US Recoveries Really Aren?t Different http://t.co/5cseU4Nn Reinhart & Rogoff take on Romney’s advisors who say the US is different Oct 16, 2012
  • Romney Rolls in Rural Vote That May Provide Swing-State Margins http://t.co/D3dSdJBB Interesting perspective, but is that a big bloc? $$ Oct 16, 2012
  • Dividends: Start Screaming http://t.co/B37C7k9a This one is tough. Probability of a cooperative Congress after the elections is low $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Economic Strength / Weakness

 

  • Winners and losers as US weather patterns change http://t.co/1txs8dcg Worth a read 4 the list of winners & losers near the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Challenges forcing change in trucking strategy http://t.co/mHjc4udb Definitely a soggy data point; US & global economies seem 2b slowing $$ Oct 18, 2012

 

Agriculture

 

Taxpayers get hosed. Farmers doing fairly well $$ Oct 18, 2012

  • Drought brings record US cost for crop insurance subsidy http://t.co/ceUOLMUQ 2012, Taxpayers pay more, Insurers pay some, farmers benefit Oct 17, 2012
  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$? http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Throwing Out Insiders Won’t Fix Corporate Boards http://t.co/ANKyNPiq Good boards watch over mgmt & have decent industry & company knowledge Oct 17, 2012
  • All-Time Highs, Almost There http://t.co/Aj1LR8AY Will the market hit new highs this year, in 2013, or when? $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Legg Mason?s Miller Redeemed as Housing Bull http://t.co/n3tRTmF6 2 soon 2 say. Miller doesn’t seek a “margin of safety” when investing $$ Oct 15, 2012
  • Vanguard to JPMorgan Dodging Neediest Borrowers http://t.co/PsNN8UKG This is what you tend to see 1-2 years in advance of the crash $$ Oct 14, 2012
  • As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
  • OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Welcome to the ?Desert of the Real? ? a postmodern economy http://t.co/g42NKcoa Increasing abstraction destroys economic intuition $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking http://t.co/Yhi5xWaR Every bit of data requires the creation of a hypothesis to give it meaning $$ Oct 17, 2012
  • Global Finance Chiefs at Odds http://t.co/av5MQ01i Everyone pursuing similar policies (Loose $$ & deficits) reduces effectiveness 4 all Oct 15, 2012
  • Heidi N. Moore joins the Guardian’s US Team as Finance & Economics Editor http://t.co/In2oDnC6 Congrats @moorehn ! Will b reading u there $$ Oct 15, 2012
  • I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012
  • Musk?s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Insurance

 

  • Insurers Shed Annuity Assets http://t.co/bUZ2brqT This doesn’t feel right. other times when financial guys buy insurers, doesn’t work $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Replies & Comments

?

  • @PlanMaestro 2 notes: rsv strengthing in Australia a concern, but not big. 2) Low ROE biz of the 90s is fading; life re was a loser then $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I love $RGA . Good mgmt team. Less interest rate & stock market dependent than life insurers FD: long RGA for me and clients $$ Oct 20, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I get a few ridiculous marketing requests/day. Do all bloggers get them? I reply2them this picture $$ http://t.co/TGc2q4Er Oct 19, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Sigh. Baltimore County is not as far gone as Baltimore City (which is also a county), but this is not wise or arms length $$ Oct 19, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “6 Wall Street blogs you should be reading – Jon Friedman’s Media Web – MarketWatch” http://t.co/qpeTAHcI Oct 18, 2012
  • @MattGGriffith Thanks. Will probably do a post in the near future expaning on that last paragraph. It struck me at the end $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • @laurenfosternyc Have you ever seen the “Gold Medal Gold Model?” http://t.co/5rPvqfEz Gold prices r a function of real interest rates $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • @CflGator these are deferred annuities so the life table plays no role. Problem is investing “too clever” inside a regulated life insurer $$ Oct 18, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/AnaHcGKh Oct 15, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “Student-loan debt is a good investment – Outside the Box – MarketWatch” http://t.co/22AyCQ9I Oct 15, 2012
  • . @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • @wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
  • “Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
  • @munilass Get to sleep, Babylass will need you tomorrow. 🙂 Oct 09, 2012
  • @PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
  • @PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

?

Retweets

 

  • Yeah, & that is BV net of AOCI RT @PlanMaestro: $RGA : book value per share http://t.co/EQWDgiSL FD: long $RGA for myself & clients Oct 20, 2012
  • Jack speaks the truth, listen 2 him $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Jack Bogle: Get Out of the Casino http://t.co/gL0siD6v Oct 18, 2012
  • RT @fivethirtyeight: All polling data is massaged A LOT in an era when only 10% of people respond to surveys. So that also introduces a … Oct 17, 2012
  • RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
  • I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
  • True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
  • Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Hoisington Capital Management

 

  • . @paulnovell It will be public in a few days — they e-mail it out to friends & clients b4 posting it here: http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior tweets courtesy of Van R. Hoisington & Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. Whole thing will be posted here http://t.co/pZ4jJrQ1 in a few days $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • @wanderinggull Which? I don’t know. What was meant to produce “ever closer union” seems to be producing the opposite. Nobel = Pollyanna Oct 12, 2012
  • Until the excessive debt issues r addressed, the multiyear trend in inflation, & thus the long Treasury bond yields will remain downward $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • “During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low” Hoisington & Hunt Oct 12, 2012
  • A jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income. Oct 12, 2012
  • How the Fed expects economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices r curtailing real income & spending is puzzling Oct 12, 2012
  • These three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule?indeed, ?nearly not observable.? Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • “Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and other Fed advocates believe the ?wealth effect? of QE3 will bring life to the economy.” Hoisington Oct 12, 2012
  • Prior Tweet a quotes Hoisington & “unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity” Oct 12, 2012
  • QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth. $$ Oct 12, 2012

?

Please Follow

 

  • #FF @japhychron @danprimack @treehcapital @insidermonkey @vitaliyk @herbgreenberg @tracyalloway @nancefinance @marykissel @diana_olick $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Please follow Cato Scholar and JHU professor that I learned a lot from: @steve_hanke Oct 10, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • As an aside, there’s kind of a rule of thumb for Bermuda insurers on buybacks: >1.3x tangible book: special dividends. <1.3x TB buybacks $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The Buyback Epidemic http://t.co/l9SvTwZM @reformedbroker notes that buybacks make less sense, the higher valuations get. I concur $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • New Regime http://t.co/L2JaQC2J @reformedbroker notes a sea change in the markets. I’ve been heading that way; still thinking about it $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • CNBC: Jim Rogers vs. Marc Faber (FULL) 10/04/2012 http://t.co/b5sEOEZb Faber & Rogers on the same segment? What a hoot! $$ $GLD $SPY $TLT Oct 12, 2012
  • Bubble-Era Financing Returns as Profits Falter http://t.co/yhxBEFxq Pay-in-kind bonds return, very nice. 2 years of rally left at most $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Wrong: Bullish Sign for Stocks: Leverage Is Up http://t.co/1Qvcdkh9 What matters more is whether leverage will rise in the future $$ Oct 09, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Zhang Weiying: China’s Anti-Keynesian Insurgent http://t.co/TGNGlo9e Fascinating tale of an Austrian economist surviving in China $$ Oct 13, 2012
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment http://t.co/ZGdrllIG Logical 2 invest less when EU & France r a mess $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • EU Wins Nobel Peace Prize http://t.co/VoTaN3ZK Nobel committee finally “jumps the shark.” The EU is unstable; a war waiting 2 happen $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk http://t.co/yO8XWNl4 The Rating agencies r flawed, but on credit they r honest Oct 12, 2012
  • IMF?s Blanchard: Healing From Crisis Could Take Decades http://t.co/NXYmLjU3 Crisis won’t b healed until total debt levels normalize $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • IMF Sees ?Alarmingly High? Risk of Deeper Global Slump http://t.co/B7Dg9Ah9 A stopped clock is right twice/day, $ the IMF is right now $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash http://t.co/rYqDjinO Hyperinflations spawn currency substitutions: gold, $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Chavez Win Called by BofA Sparks Selloff as Barclays Flops http://t.co/DNPxpVzO Sad that Chavez won, but the bonds reflected a loss $$ Oct 09, 2012
  • Why a U.S. buyout firm is investing in Greece http://t.co/26oB31e9 ht: @danprimack – Companies w/global markets insensitive 2 local probs $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Sicily, a Portrait of Italian Dysfunction http://t.co/w3dn2JFe Core Europe is to Italy as Italy is to Sicily. $$ gone & hard work starts Oct 08, 2012
  • Cheapest Chinese Stocks Since ?97 Not Enough to Signal Rally http://t.co/rTEm2MNF Noneconomic actors compete & drive down future profit $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet http://t.co/bitjVaqn From my former professor @ JHU, Steve Hanke. Financial sanctions r biting in Iran $$ Oct 07, 2012

 

US Real Estate

 

  • OCC Forced JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to Write Down Home-Equity Loans http://t.co/qxXjXBoS FD: + $WFC – ’bout time. Recoveries poor on HEL $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • California Leading U.S. Out of Housing Bust http://t.co/oEaOG4nf I would be wary of “dead cat” bounces here $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • Tech Firms Become Real- Estate Trusts http://t.co/GrHU2bo5 Tech firms that own a lot of real estate take advantage of becoming REITs $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Not New York Towers Rise With Embrace of Yield http://t.co/3MKpRdVi When vacancy rates r this high, ordinarily rents fall. Y not now? $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Agriculture

 

  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump http://t.co/WvHEturP Anything involved in animal husbandry is having tough time now $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • Midwest Drought Claims Poultry Producer http://t.co/9K4cL3Gx Many firms involved in the meat biz r having a rough time now. $$ Oct 11, 2012

 

Other

 

  • I’m not much of an #Orioles fan, but don’t you have to love a team of nobodies who can challenge the highly paid #Yankees? $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • The UN has declared today as the International Day of the Girl Child http://t.co/L0nS6wtd Sex selection abortion kills the most girls $$ Oct 11, 2012
  • If Only T. Boone Pickens Had Died http://t.co/tpXYGeCV Score: TB Pickens 0, Wealthy donors 0, Oklahoma State Univ. 0, Life Actuaries 1 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • Musk?s SpaceX Launches Craft for Space Station Deliveries http://t.co/Z3MH68Ud Space age begins as governments r less of a factor $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • California Facing $5 Gasoline Stirs Brown to Relax Rules http://t.co/uQUPOz8f There is a pain point 4 everyone, just found 4 CA gas $5 $$ Oct 08, 2012

 

Comments

?

  • “Good post, Josh. You have identified many of the best. No one of us covers it all; it’s a strong list” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/3Qg6WWZk Oct 10, 2012
  • At this rate, growing tobacco should be prohibited. Oh, wait, we tried that with alcohol. Never mind. $$? http://t.co/hU9nI6l2 Oct 09, 2012

?

?

On Angela

?

  • @PavChyt @matinastevis Her *former* husband. She kept the name b/c it was good politics. She did not keep him. Oct 08, 2012
  • @PavChyt @MatinaStevis I received the name Merkel at birth. Angela got it from her 1st husband. At least people r spelling it right now $$ Oct 08, 2012

?

Retweets

 

  • RT @MuniCredit: Citi Muni Presentation: http://t.co/ONrQe9gA #muniland h/t: @bondgirl Oct 12, 2012
  • I appreciate retweets RT @LSilverspar: Not enough for the value of your posts. If you value the retweets, I will do so far more often. $$ Oct 12, 2012
  • My week on twitter: 22 retweets received, 22 new followers, 16 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Oct 11, 2012
  • RT @danprimack: Every time people get all worked up over a national presidential poll, I wonder if the electoral college was eliminated … Oct 08, 2012
  • True of many notable CEOs w/earnings 2 smooth RT @rcwhalen: GE’s Jack Welch Knows All About Cooking the Books http://t.co/5vJeRux6 $$ Oct 08, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: “Markets are increasingly distorted by Central Banks, attempts to squeeze drops of growth from overindebted developed w … Oct 07, 2012
  • Shock! $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Revised Greek GDP figures show recession deeper than thought http://t.co/FCspv2gU. > data released friday night Oct 06, 2012
Neoclassical vs Austrian Economics

Neoclassical vs Austrian Economics

Posted on by David Merkel

Before I start, I want to say that I have not read Mises, Hayek or Rothbard.? I arrived at these conclusions on my own.? I also want to quote Buffett:

?It is better to be approximately right, than precisely wrong.?

Applying math to economics has been a loser.? Who has a consistently good macroeconomic model?? No one that I know.? Estimates of future GDP growth and inflation are regularly wrong, and no one calls turning points well.

Even microeconomic models are bad shape; most of the major hypotheses get rejected when doing general equilibrium tests.

Why?? Because capitalistic economies are more dynamic than mathematical models can mirror.? Live with the volatility, and don’t try to model it.? We face the same in the asset markets, behavior is not predictable.

Austrian economics understands the boom-bust cycle.? Neoclassical economics assumes we move to an equilibrium.? Have you ever lived in an equilibrium?!? There is never an equilibrium, or it is always unstable, and that is the beauty of Austrian economics.? The lack of an equilibrium means the system is always adjusting it does not rest.

Why do neoclassical economists assume equilibrium?? To make their stupid math work.? It is the same for guys in finance.? Why do they assume normality?? To make their stupid math work.? The world is complex, but the economists assume that it is not complex in order to make their models work.

Bias

There is a bias that exists below the surface of all macroeconomic commentary.? Do we look at the income statement, or do we look at the balance sheet?? Neoclassical economists mostly look at the income statement.? Austrian economists look at the balance sheet.? (Neoclassical economists are friends with growth investors, Austrians are friends of value investors.)

Think of the “brick through the window” fallacy.? On the Neoclassical version of GDP, a brick through the window raises GDP.? The Austrians are smarter, and realize that the change in aggregate net wealth is negative.

Neoclassical economics believed debt levels were neutral and were proven wrong in the recent crisis.? They did not look at the balance sheet.

Neoclassical economists, who have dominated the Fed for over 40 years, drove us into a huge inflation, which Volcker choked, and then Greenspan & Bernanke drove us into a liquidity trap by refusing to let recessions eliminate bad debt, creating the “great moderation,” which is now known as a sham.

What You Can’t Quantify Well

Quantitative economics has not improved understanding.? Ben Bernanke flies blind but claims that he sees; the Fed has been a lousy predictor of economic outcomes, despite the legion of academic economists they employ.? There are no economists that have consistently forecast the economy well.

That’s why I don’t agree with those that criticize Austrian economics for avoiding quantifying their theories.? Economics is not a science; it does not quantify well, at least in detail.

Economics should be primarily an ethical discipline.? The government is a referee rather than an overlord.? The government should assure equality of opportunity rather than equality of result.

It’s not as if the government can use its “policy levers” to create any degree of lasting prosperity.? Prosperity lies within the control of individuals who apply their acumen to the situation, and come up with creative ways of meeting human needs.

Closing

Thus, I don’t have much sympathy for those that reject Austrian economics because we don’t have a mathematical means of expressing it.? Paraphrasing the Buffett quote, “I would rather be approximately right than precisely wrong.”? There are many things that I don’t have an exact economic model for that I know a decent amount about.? Qualitative knowledge is valuable, and should not be disrespected by those that do not have a better model, such as the broken model of the neoclassical economists.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Eurozone

 

  • ECB Collateral Moves Reopen ?Soup Kitchen? for Struggling Banks http://t.co/CMMkeby9 Euros available in exchange 4 marginal collateral $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Jobless Greeks Resolved to Work Clean Toilets in Sweden http://t.co/EqGuottV Really a sad tale; another way of saying EZone has failed $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Euro: Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck http://t.co/R3y7uG5J Axel Merk argues that current Eurozone troubles will create US Europe $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying http://t.co/Cyn0tu9O The conditionality will eventually render it ineffective $$ Sep 06, 2012
  • Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash and Get Out of Spain http://t.co/EMT40EQK When times get tough, people leave. More in Spain $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Perhaps the Irish economy is rebounding.? Maybe the banks are next? $$ http://t.co/fN5Cyfj4 Sep 05, 2012
  • Two Tears for Two-Tiers http://t.co/YuLV0vnN Will Mario Draghi really create an expensive market for <3yr Spanish & Italian debt? $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • ECB bond-buying would not breach rules-Draghi http://t.co/9iaSdGnn Of course not pooky. Buying the short debt will draw u2 long debt l8r $$ Sep 04, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • California Treasurer Backs Law to Ban Costly Long-Term Bo [sic] http://t.co/P5U2f7DC Capital Appreciation Bonds are expensive 2 issuers $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • We’re Not Out Of Money http://t.co/FKDSbBAM There may not be an economic limit on printing $$ but a political limit when inflation arrives Sep 05, 2012
  • Top Bank Lawyer?s EMails Show Washington?s Inside Game http://t.co/4sSYxs4n Former SEC Commissioner Annette Nazareth uses her influence $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Suits Challenge Classrooms That Segregate Boys, Girls http://t.co/zHiCmchK My brother ran a school for boys; much better than co-ed $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Fed’s unemployment target is unrealistic http://t.co/1edPuBTC Global labor competition will keep unemployment high, until exports get big $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • The Clinton Administration did not offer as much public debt, Social Security was running its largest… http://t.co/mySuAvk1 Sep 05, 2012
  • As I said with the Republican Convention, I am very glad that I don’t own a TV. I would rather consider the merits than emotional appeals $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • They grow so fast, treasure them while you can $$ RT @TheStalwart: The Obama daughters have aged a lot. http://t.co/2IguOJdj Sep 05, 2012
  • A radical tax plan the left and right can agree on http://t.co/84PA1xpp Cut corporate tax rates & eliminate all special preferences $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • If You Think Obama?s First Term Was Bad, Imagine a Second http://t.co/4iFeFAfc Same applies to Romney; we will have gridlock either way $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Why Bernanke has become irrelevant http://t.co/dN9b6kVP Inflating financial assets also inflates financial liabilities &so it does little $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Putin to Raise Government Retirement Age to 70 http://t.co/TtluvkN0 We should also. Y should young ppl subsidize oldsters who could work Sep 04, 2012
  • The Democrats? Version of Mediscare http://t.co/rRUwEf7s Agreement btw Reps & Dems: cut medicare. The Q is how to do it? $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Long term real rates in the US hit record lows http://t.co/WQns2veU Can you say “financial Repression,” boys & girls? I thought you could $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Gloria Romero: Trials of a Democratic Reformer http://t.co/Hblx3Plk Unions (SEIU, CTA, the CA school employees) dominate $$ in Sacto $$ Sep 01, 2012
  • California Lawmakers Send Public-Pension Cutback to Brown http://t.co/pn3uXnjj First, prospective change, next retrospective on actives $$ Sep 01, 2012
  • The duopoly doesn’t like interlopers playing on their turf $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Why Is Gary Johnson Being Ignored? http://t.co/qgXnrC49 Sep 01, 2012

The Markets

 

  • Asset Allocation & Portfolio Management: Is the Industry Shifting to a New Paradigm? http://t.co/u69lGilE 2 complex; parameters unstable $$ Sep 08, 2012
  • Student Loans: Debt for Life http://t.co/sd4aNaDo With student loans not dischargable in bankruptcy many students end up debt-slaves $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds for Second Month in August http://t.co/3Ydp0q3t Anticipated inflation (via TIPS) rising over last 2 months $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Should You Wade In With a Windfall? http://t.co/lprP4FbX A perpetual debate; best to decide on your asset allocation and invest $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Are You Making Too Much Money? http://t.co/5uoVQMTF Cramer points out that when a strategy is working too well -> greater prob of blowup $$ Sep 01, 2012

 

Lenders, Insurers, and Housing

 

  • Hedge funds face autumn uncertainty http://t.co/lbTBS8Rx Hard not to be uncertain when deficits are high, monetary policy loose, & EZone $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • With Lax Regulation, a Risky Industry Flourishes Offshore http://t.co/C3RUhCQD Bermuda reinsurers r better managed than largest US banks $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Assessing Fannie’s Past and Future http://t.co/v5c8Y2QS Sadly, ending the role of the US Govt in lending $$ is not a listed option. Sep 04, 2012
  • Home Prices Are Not Rebounding as Fast as You Think http://t.co/qrYYciDr Market will have to digest a lot of dark supply, post-bottom $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Breaking Up Banks Is Hard With Traders Hooked on Deposits http://t.co/CtcyqaiH WIll b made up reducing diseconomies of scale $$ #breakthem Sep 04, 2012
  • Bad headline: Nine Insurers Boast Gains On Facebook Positions http://t.co/8rsBZfe1 Read the story: most insurers owning $FB lost $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Big Banks Are Hazardous to U.S. Financial Health http://t.co/8CxiiLqb Implicit promise of US rescue allows large banks to finance cheap $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Fighting financial complexity with simple rules? http://t.co/nU1ypbgK Limit leverage, interconnectedness, analyze risk-based liquidity $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Ranking the Largest U.S. Banks: M&T No. 17 With a Bullet http://t.co/dBLM8EBY Look at how large the top 4 r relative to everyone else $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Index points to new dawn for US housing http://t.co/c04HLluw There is a lot of dark supply to clear, but bottom has passed on low end $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Melbourne Hasn?t Seen Worst of Housing Drop as Glut Builds http://t.co/wJRlFbeR I’m sure glut is temporary, “Contained” & banks r fine 😉 Sep 01, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Shale Boom Cuts Gulf Oil Premium to 24-Year Low http://t.co/O738xxOI Whouda thunk oil production would increase in the US? $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • “Green energy ‘is a big area of unfulfilled promise,'” aka “crazy inefficient dreaming.” Send them to study physics $$ http://t.co/VAsgEdVz Sep 04, 2012
  • RE: Natural gas prices have fallen; that is most of the new energy produced. Little oil so gasoline prices stay high. http://t.co/XCZBTmSR Sep 03, 2012

?

Other

 

  • Stanford researchers’ cooling glove ‘better than steroids’ & helps solve physiological mystery, too http://t.co/D5CqAU9x Muscles overheat $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • FBI vs. Google: The Legal Fight to Unlock Phones http://t.co/i2VbdISV Interesting that $GOOG resists requests 4 smartphone passwords $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Malware attacks on the rise http://t.co/fzKcSqe8 Now coming to a handheld device near you. Try to decide on a ransom strategy early $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Awkward Belly Dance for Groupon http://t.co/sCxGrpKo As if $GRPN doesn’t have enough troubles, two large founders back a competitor $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • China, Germany plan to settle more trade in yuan, euros http://t.co/DFtNGvxi Settling $$ doesn’t matter, where proceeds r invested matters Sep 03, 2012
  • The Federal Reserve: From Central Bank to Central Planner http://t.co/YQxbQLq2 The more tasks we give to the Fed, the worse they do $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • You Can’t Trust Airport Security http://t.co/TWGMUwP1 Security systems must balance risks of false positives vs missing positives $$ Sep 03, 2012

?

BloombergView Hypocrisy

  • You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed? http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 The Fed could b genuinely transparent & the economy prosperous $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU The 2r not related. Proceeds of debt do not lead2 hiring necessarily Sep 05, 2012
  • @bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • @bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: “You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed?” http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 Sep 05, 2012

?

Retirement

 

  • Big Firms a Drag on Pension Funds http://t.co/Q1hchNbH Returns at larger private equity funds have lagged their smaller brethren $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Retirement security is a big problem — especially for the young http://t.co/DxTcvg4O The developed world lives in a fantasy re: retirement Sep 05, 2012
  • San Jose Cops Rush Disability Retirement Bids as Rules Tighten http://t.co/jSKWSiaQ & I’ll bet the actuary never priced 100% disability $$ Sep 05, 2012

 

Follow

  • #FF @cabaum1 @HousingWire @journalistjosh @LizRappaport @CardiffGarcia @simonconstable @agnestcrane @WSJTheSource @maoxian @jsphctrl $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • #FF @footnoted @LSPollack @MattGoldstein26 @munilass @williamalden @JeffreyMatthews @PragCapitalist @neilbarofsky @MKTWBurton @petereavis $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @lv_1 I’m doing 1 of these per day listing my favorite tweeps, some of which are lesser known; last group is mostly economics Sep 06, 2012
  • It’s not Friday, but please follow: @GonzaloLiraSPG @rajivatbarnard @John_Hempton @SoberLook @groditi @unstructuredfin @historysquared $$ Sep 06, 2012
  • It’s not Friday but please follow: @finemrespice @prchovanec @vshih2 @BoydRoddy @dpinsen @niubi @manualofideas @wesbury @merrillmatter $$ Sep 03, 2012

?

Retweets

  • A permanent problem in a dynamic language $$ RT @BloombergView: These are sad times for grammatical purists | http://t.co/Se0XfLCD Sep 07, 2012
  • RT @DennisDMZ: Obama thanked Biden for being “the best VP I could have hoped for.” Proof that America really has become the land of dimi … Sep 07, 2012
  • Their headlines mislead more than most RT @LaurenLaCapra: This Bloomberg headline is not only weird, but questionable. http://t.co/0CKK9ATE Sep 05, 2012
  • Worth a read $$ RT @TheStalwart: This strikes me as an interesting contribution to the profit margins debate. http://t.co/Bt5S9ZrF Sep 05, 2012
  • RT @PlanMaestro: Very good takedown of Taibbi’s Bain Capital piece. There is a story in there just not this one http://t.co/he0VaYo4 @da … Sep 05, 2012
  • Oops $$ RT @SecurityTube: [News] BitCoin Exchange Loses $250,0000 [sic] After Unencrypted Keys Stolen http://t.co/Yt2l7bp3 Sep 05, 2012
  • How many divisions does Draghi have? MT @TheStalwart: The Most Powerful Man In The World Is Going To Speak Tomorrow. So Is Barack Obama $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Also worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: One of my favorite tables: Shadow Banking Depositors. The plumbing. http://t.co/i6UVAJan Sep 05, 2012
  • Worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: Another: Credit-Maturity Transformation Spectrum http://t.co/F98xEbgP Sep 05, 2012
  • RT @NickTimiraos: CoreLogic index shows that home prices are now 1.3% above Jan 2009 level. Down 0.7% from June 2010 (tax credit induced … Sep 04, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: RT @conorsen: @TheStalwart @diana_olick You should probably have

an auto-RT app for Diana’s stuff. Sep 04, 2012

  • RT @ReformedBroker: As the politicians descend on Charlotte, Carolinians come face to face with more pork than they’ve ever pulled. #DNC2012 Sep 04, 2012
  • Good one, made me smile. $$ RT @pdacosta: This euro crisis thing is really Draghing out. Sep 03, 2012
  • My but Congress was farsighted to recognize a banking benchmark & celebrate! $$ RT @ReformedBroker: HAPPY LIBOR DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sep 03, 2012
  • RT @mbusigin: You know what’s going to happen? People going to pile into Risk Parity strategies just in time for yield volatility modera … Sep 01, 2012
  • RT @simonconstable: ?@Mctaguej: Connaughton is a loyal Democrat–but he pulls no punches in his expose of Obama’s failure to pursue Wall … Sep 01, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: Thought we had an aging population Ben Bernanke? How many jobs have been lost because 150 mln baby boomers are earning … Sep 01, 2012

 

Comments

  • @BradErvin1 Fair point; we have skills mismatch here as well, & income differences among regions; not as pronounced though, adjusts better Sep 08, 2012
  • @crampell My son thanks you for that article. He runs and the trainers ice him down after practice; going to show it to his coach Sep 07, 2012
  • @ToshibaEric Thanks 4 replying. Talked to 10 people @ Toshiba before I got someone to send me a free mailing box for repairs ~ 2 hours $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @toshiba also aggravating sitting on hold, getting dropped three times, and representatives hiding behind the legalese Sep 07, 2012
  • @toshiba Really aggravating dealing with your phone support for a new computer that fails on day one, and you do not offer replacement $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • ‘ @Fullcarry It’s kind of like the “pop” that happens when a distressed credit does an equity offering in order to survive. $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @niubi Perhaps because that would be blocked. China does not want people 2know how much diverse information 2which they do not have access Sep 07, 2012
  • @credittrader The cash he receives will be used to collateralize an account invested in stock index futures $$ 😉 #nevercashonsidelines Sep 05, 2012
  • @moorehn Could we pass a law that all politicians have to write their own speeches, so that they say is more likely what they really think? Sep 05, 2012
  • @_TPR Okay, so I have missed something. I trust Bermuda; I do not trust Ireland as a regulator. Who has moved? $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • @finemrespice Some technological breakthroughs e.g. http://t.co/F4jeyerr, but no 1 mentions costs. Technical efficiency <> Econ progress $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “How Pimco?s Gross beats the average bond fund – Mutual Understanding – MarketWatch” http://t.co/Nfq2s7Un Sep 04, 2012
  • We need a new misery index that includes the future pain of present borrowing. At least Carter kept… http://t.co/honmBXQ5 Sep 04, 2012
  • 2, 4, and 6 are not myths. The others are. There are limits to what the government can do. They must tax or… http://t.co/JPa4IGqW Sep 04, 2012
  • Alas, modern worship, odious to God. Bring back a cappella singing of Psalms, like the ancient church.? Also, giving ? http://t.co/OBAwBJnx Sep 04, 2012
  • It is rational for lower-level German politicians to say Greece must leave the Euro. It is what an average German be? http://t.co/6UUYd6e9 Sep 04, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

A note to all of the actuaries in the audience, all three of you 😉 : an old friend from my GIC days is seeking a multi-talented actuary to work in the stable value business.? Must understand how wraps work, etc.? If interested, drop me a note, and I’ll send you the contact info.

On with the tweets:

=-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==–=-=-==-=-=-=–==–=-=-=-==–=

Eurozone

 

  • May not last long $$ RT @John_Hempton: @AlephBlog Spain imposing on bank junior bonds but prefs in Santander still trading at par! Strange. Jun 23, 2012
  • Buying Europe Banks Is Easy for Herro as Cheap Stocks Fall http://t.co/gfCOhY8q Key question here is accounting quality; not a buyer $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Spain Said to Weigh Imposing Losses on Junior Bank Bondholders http://t.co/cD1hoAVa Fine, but they won’t fund jr debt for 20yrs or so $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF http://t.co/9V2FJ0Xc IMF doesn’t like the complexity of the E-Zone, wants it 2 behave like a nation Jun 23, 2012
  • Debt crisis: Angela Merkel defies Latin Europe and the IMF on bond rescue http://t.co/qTKEAr5O She who pays the $$ calls the tunes Jun 23, 2012
  • What?s So Special About the Euro Currency Area? http://t.co/oJWyrLAk Currency unions don’t work; must centralize or die $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Merkel Balks at Sovereign Debt Purchases to Overcome Crisis http://t.co/UfuN4ae8 Physically, the crisis looks like it is wearing on Angela Jun 21, 2012
  • Spanish short-term debt costs reach alarm levels http://t.co/Dm8d2bsv Yields high enough that Spain unlikely to grow out of the debt $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Cyprus Said to Face Europe Pressure for $13 Billion Aid http://t.co/z0etJBlX Who wants to maintain influence in Cyprus? Russia, E-zone? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • ‘ @aarontask He might b right. Key Q is how much Germans/Nordics/Dutch view themselves as Europeans 1st rather than Germans/Nordics/Dutch $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Greek Leaders Poised to Agree on Three-Way Coalition http://t.co/JvAaPDDj It will be difficult for that coalition 2 hold together $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Ma?ana-nomics at Los Cabos http://t.co/GtlAj4lY Weak Europoliticians blame US, when their banking system was overlevered & malregulated $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • G20 summit: perils of a half-baked rescue for Spain and Italy http://t.co/7E6jPK4W E-zone not ready 2 take strong actions; don’t force it $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Is Spain past the point of no return? http://t.co/zCRF7qKo ??I suspect the ECB will have to be the buyer of last resort for Spanish bonds.?? Jun 19, 2012
  • Saddling Spain With Bank Burden Repeats Irish Error http://t.co/dWgYAUht Protect deposits, not bank bonds, preferreds, or stocks $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • “Which is why $JPM had the hedge there in the first place $$” http://t.co/o61frAFX Dimon Says ?Firewalls? May Halt Spread of Europe Crisis Jun 19, 2012
  • Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries’ debt http://t.co/OEFi9UI9 Last refuge of scoundrels:blame speculators Jun 19, 2012
  • Fran?ois Hollande said meeting btw Ezone & Obama rescheduled4this morning2brief Americans on “mechanisms that allow us to fight speculation” Jun 19, 2012
  • Spanish Yields at 7% Show Investors Slamming Door http://t.co/JxGxNHDn Spain is slowly passing the “tipping point” into hopelessness. $$ Jun 18, 2012
  • Where is the relief? RT @jennablan: Where is the relief rally? Jun 18, 2012

FOMC Meeting/Press Conference

 

  • Fed Seen Extending Operation Twist and Avoiding Bond Buys http://t.co/qFOSA0rf Fed can’t do nothing, so it does something that is nothing Jun 21, 2012
  • RT @ezraklein: Hypothesis: Bernanke doesn’t do more because he doesn’t think he can. He says otherwise is because he doesn’t want the ma … Jun 20, 2012
  • Dr. Bernanke: Couldn?t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets? Jun 20, 2012
  • That’s all folks!!! Jun 20, 2012
  • Dr. Bernanke, Isn?t stagflation a possibility here? I mean, no one expected it in the ?70s either. $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Q for Bernanke: If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Stocks trading off — correlated with future inflation rates; long Treasuries rallying nominal yields falling -> real rates stable-ish $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • What Bernanke is describing in terms of hedging and risk management has to be done in the insurance industry; actuarial risk analyses Jun 20, 2012
  • W/MBS rates, those mtges that are underwater don’t benefit, same for Alt-A & Jumbo; low rates don’t help many in residential real estate $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Effect of Tsy ylds on corporate yields is stronger 4 AAA-A bonds, moderate 4 BBB bonds, little 4 junk & the effects get weaker w/maturity $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • That’s the wrap up for the central tendencies and averages of the FOMC’s additional data release. Anyone find those summaries useful? $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in Avg Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End 2012-2014, Longer -0.07%, -0.10%, -0.22%, -0.09% $$ Levels: 0.30%, 0.50%, 1.11%, 4.11% Jun 20, 2012
  • Average appropriate timing of policy firming moved out 1.6 months to November 2013 $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in PCE Inflation central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.4)%, -0.07%, -0.12%, 0% $$ Levels: 1.48%, 1.76%, 1.77%, 2.00% Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in unemployment central tendency 2012-2014, Longer +0.18%, +0.20%, +0.24%, +0.03% $$ Levels: 8.10%, 7.71%, 7.28%, 5.60% Jun 20, 2012
  • Changes in real GDP growth central tendency 2012-2014, Longer -0.50%, -0.37%, -0.11%, -0.04% $$ Levels: 2.13%, 2.57%, 3.28%, 2.44% Jun 20, 2012
  • +1 RT @bondscoop: Steve Liesman is the Fed’s Helen Thomas Jun 20, 2012
  • Fed wants to see long TIPS up in price relative to long nominal Treasuries. http://t.co/X5Gjt6jI Jun 20, 2012
  • @TheStalwart #FOMCGuesses OT extended, no QE3, central tendencies move back to where they were in January, shades lang down GDP, CPI, etc $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • C?mon, Ben, Just Say It; Please, Just Say QE3 http://t.co/ksIKxZ6C Sad that equity guys beg 4 stimulus; think OT extends; no QE3 yet $$ Jun 20, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Glencore Protests Bolivia’s Move on Mine http://t.co/OcIzatJ5 Bolivia has Venezuela envy; won’t end until Morales is shown 2b a fail. $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Children of Mao’s wrath vie for power in China http://t.co/pWzj4Dbq All of the current ruling class survived the Cultural Revolution $$ Jun 22, 2012
  • Riskier Bets Pitched to Asia’s Rising Rich http://t.co/P6PjFqyR Yield is the oldest scam in the books; Asia’s brokers fleece clients $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • China warns its rare earth reserves are declining http://t.co/ve2e6PQq I doubt this, but if true -> significant scarcity of rare earths $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Britain doomed, apparently http://t.co/WdvPCsxs Countries that don?t reset their systems through default, will experience money decay $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Suicides, Arrests Show Trouble at Korean Savings Banks http://t.co/aP1fu6KS Pride drives suicides, rather than confession of wrongdoing $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • The UN’s Internet Power Grab http://t.co/LE704S74 Never surrender an advantage for no gain; does the Obama administration get that? $$ Jun 18, 2012
  • The Return of Egypt’s ‘Deep State’ http://t.co/i1IkbmMq Islamists & liberals checkmated by Egyptian Army 4 now. Liberals s/b glad $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • @dpinsen Agreed, better H/L would have been: “Egyptian Army reveals full control, ends show that played w/democracy 2 smoke out enemies” $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Noda Ends Japan Nuclear Freeze, Risking Voter Backlash at Polls http://t.co/Jcoxl91Z He does the right thing, but will the voters agree $$ Jun 17, 2012

?

Banks

 

  • A History of Money Funds http://t.co/KXCpfCDz Let the critics of money market funds apply the same2banks; mark2market accounting. $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Bank Investors Dismiss Moody?s Cuts as Years Too Late http://t.co/5cOsGOyG True. Moody’s should’ve done it in 2008; did politics stopthem? Jun 23, 2012
  • Citigroup Faces $5 Billion on Dollar?s Rise, Peabody Says http://t.co/5HZtJfvx So, on the heels of $JPM, $C has a currency mismatch? $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Eminent domain for underwater mortgages could have biggest impact on banks http://t.co/NK9W0PyO Comments at end; disagreement welcomed $$ Jun 20, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Bernanke Acknowledges Tsy Strategy @ Odds W/Fed Policy http://t.co/MqW6qda2 “Thx, Unca Ben 4letting us issue morre 30s” Ben:”Arrrgh!” $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • The Fed?s second best solution http://t.co/YJhiHbNd “collateral damage will mount, making the next policy steps even more excruciating.” Jun 21, 2012
  • Fed Born of Morgan?s Bailout Under Scrutiny After Dimon?s Loss http://t.co/7EHPlSvM How significant is it 4 Jamie D 2b on NY Fed board? $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Krugman’s Intellectual Waterloo http://t.co/brrRB3CP Suggested possible Fed stimulus: blow housing bubble 2replace tech bubble $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Also, the last H/L could have been: “Bernanke?s GDP View Invalidated as Economy Slows” FOMC has been lousy economic forecasters lately $$ Jun 17, 2012
  • Bernanke?s Inflation View Validated as Commodities Fall http://t.co/pjRKhXWv Median & Trimmed mean CPIs mot falling, better measures $$ Jun 17, 2012

 

Asset Management

 

  • Pimco?s Gross Warns of Risk Assets as Aberdeen Avoids Stocks http://t.co/pcqnMis6 Bill Gross signs on to deflation late & promotes it $$ Jun 23, 2012
  • Private Equity Has Too Much Money to Spend on Homes http://t.co/VPToSU8I Big buyers need to stay quiet if they want 2 make good returns $$ Jun 22, 2012
  • Simon Lack responds to AIMA’s hedge fund cheerleading http://t.co/VQq4s1O8 Backfill bias, IRR vs Buy&Hold, high fees, survivor bias $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • At 40,000 feet, Fidelity’s Danoff ponders Groupons http://t.co/BwOKJR8X Danoff is a survivor; he’s right it’s lonely 2b a stockpicker $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Very good point. Wall Street is a 1-note Sam RT @chadstarliper: Has there ever been a time when Wall St didn’t think stocks were “cheap?” $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Wall Street says stocks are bargains, but that assumes surging profits http://t.co/0c0iDdK6 Or at least growing sales w/flat profit mgns $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • America?s $8T corporate debt market faces liquidity drought as banks retreat from the trade http://t.co/rvXwFsjW Shouldn’t b that bad $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Equities entail less risk than ?haven? investments http://t.co/u3befAMT Ain’t necessarily true; think of the Great Depression or 1871 $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Valuation Matters…. Equity vs Bonds Edition http://t.co/23IikMDJ Earnings ylds v Tsy ylds unstable; Q-ratio, CAPE10, Price/resources bettr Jun 19, 2012
  • Biggest Stocks Beat S&P 500 Most in 13 Years as Valuations Fall http://t.co/7vLxG6VN Once valuations get so low, they must go up $$ Jun 18, 2012

?

Companies

 

  • DuPont selling Conoco at oil mkt trough $$RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
  • DuPont buying Conoco at oil mkt peak $$ RT @BarbarianCap: “Delta seals deal to buy Pennsylvania refinery” > hasn’t that been tried before? Jun 23, 2012
  • J.C. Penney Falls After Francis Leaves Amid Strategy Flop http://t.co/jfAVGj3V Rare setback 4 Ackman/Pershing on $JCP; retail is tough $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • Buffett Extends Real-Estate Bet With ResCap Pursuit http://t.co/ZsN6J0Pm Buffett is early, in my opinion, but has the capital to do it $$ Jun 18, 2012

 

Pensions

?

  • US public retiree benefits gap grows to $1.38T http://t.co/7bZ18GRB Gap widened by $120 billion since last year; thx Ben 4 low discnt rates Jun 20, 2012
  • Joe Nocera Is Wrong About Woonsocket’s Crisis http://t.co/Z3RM9UGO Harder2discharge muni “pension” bonds than renegotiate muni pensions $$ Jun 20, 2012
  • GM Seen Fueling Pension Deals as Employers Face Shortfall http://t.co/noz9auU0 Hope $MET & $PRU survive; guaranty funds limited in size $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Terminal funding of DB pension plans will be a growing phenomenon if corps/states bite bullet and kick in more $$ to fund annuity purchases Jun 19, 2012
  • Problem to annuitants is companies can go broke; no PBGC coverage of annuities, and state guarantees r usually limited 2 $100,000 total $$ Jun 19, 2012

?

Media

 

  • Love the Leaker, Hate the Leak http://t.co/wiY7RwJU Value of releasing sensitive govt data to the public is in the eye of the beholder $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • How David Weidner Changed My Life http://t.co/g9LVJIWD @reformedbroker – how getting on @davidweidner ‘s Top 10 list gave him a big boost $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • +1 won’t watch RT @ReformedBroker: Bloomberg PR pushing their Meredith Whitney interview video hard today. They haven’t gotten the memo yet. Jun 19, 2012
  • Wrong: 20 rules that can save you from the Doomsday Cycle http://t.co/jLB0s2pL Why does Marketwatch give Paul Farrell space 2 write? $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • So long, suckers ? I?m leaving Wall Street http://t.co/x1Ju1fmZ David Weidner: Some lessons from 15 years observing the industry $$ Jun 19, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • Liquidity, Noise, and Signal http://t.co/cV15Mr2z Shorter the time period-> higher ratio noise/signal; leads2bad trades @ turning points $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • ‘ @JATranfo Never criticized ECRI when out of favor; FWIW, I reverse-engineered their main model: industrial commod pxs & credit spreads $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Lawmakers Push for Overhaul of IPO Process http://t.co/qhh7tX1V Every “fix” creates its own set of problems. Mania can hit auctions 2 $$ Jun 21, 2012
  • Yes $$ RT @Fullcarry: A point I have made many times in the past: the drop in yields the past decade is mostly due to a drop in real rates. Jun 20, 2012
  • Housing Starts in U.S. Fall 4.8% in May on Apartments http://t.co/PhMFwHQL Interesting contrary data; $EQR chart http://t.co/vleXkVAM $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Asians Top Immigration Class http://t.co/Sir2IFxQ Certainly noticeable here in Ellicott City; most businesses have signs in Korean $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Poorly reasoned: Court-Ordered Care ? A Complication of Pregnancy 2 Avoid http://t.co/DqmhsvkU Mothers w/child in womb uniquely affect child Jun 18, 2012
  • Please follow @jarrodwilcox, He has taught me many things, and I respect him a great deal #FF Jun 17, 2012
  • A Jewish-Asian Couple?s Union Leads to a Scholarly Interest in Intermarriage http://t.co/U3jfPkyK Both ethnic groups prize education $$ Jun 17, 2012

 

Comments

 

  • DavidMerkel’s discussion on “The New Yorker’s Newest Writer Is a Big Self-Plagiarist” http://t.co/g1i0YeF4 Writing belongs2those that paid Jun 20, 2012
  • “High energy particle physics is only a small part of science, and not adequate to measure the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/T4BrvWBj Jun 20, 2012
  • “Please, accidents per passenger mile would be better, rather than: “He also pointed to the fact?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Yg6r5N3X Jun 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Maybe DC city govt should start a reality TV show, w/prizes 2 the official who commits the most cr? http://t.co/lIXL6eMi Jun 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview ?How will you deal with deferral of individual taxes on investment from DC plans, unrealized CGs, ? http://t.co/NY0Q3Ia5 Jun 20, 2012
  • “Cool picture, Ed. Thanks for sharing it.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Mg9lx0ij Jun 19, 2012
  • “Hitting the fiscal cliff won’t happen, and that’s too bad, because we need to discuss long-term imbalances” ? D_Merkel http://t.co/csiaLXlV Jun 19, 2012
  • “Here is a proposal for how rating agencies could be eliminated: http://t.co/rLrOK4vu…” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/q2mxmhpW Jun 19, 2012
  • “I trust ratings agencies more than mismanaged governments. Ratings are needed to provide?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/vOdPJvzv Jun 19, 2012
  • “If this is representative of what the ruling Greek coalition will do, the government will fail?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/HEe4GwHt Jun 19, 2012
  • “Much as we may dislike financial fraud, suggesting that those in the US that mismanaged their banks?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/fEZQIo0h Jun 19, 2012
  • ‘ @FilmCriticOne You say u want tax reform, but ur willing2let value grow untaxed through deferral? Get real; ability2defer is the issue $$ Jun 16, 2012

 

Dimon for Fed Secretary

 

  • @dlevineMW @moorehn and pay cut. The same rumors were applied to Hank Greenberg $AIG 4 Tsy Secretary user Bush, Sr. Said the same then $$ Jun 19, 2012
  • Jamie kind2let us live in his world 😉 RT @ReformedBroker He’s hedging the Senate w/the House right now, y’all r just pawns in a bigger game Jun 19, 2012
  • Why should Jamie accept the demotion? $$ RT @moorehn: This is just Jamie practicing for confirmation hearings as Treasury Secretary, right? Jun 19, 2012

 

Tax Policy

 

  • Tax Panels Turn Focus to Investments http://t.co/sq6AnHdE Best poss is lowering corp tax rates, equalizing all tax rates for individuals Jun 23, 2012
  • How to Kill the Corporate-Income Tax http://t.co/T5MgnVuD Evens out personal income tax rates by class. Good, but what about deferral? $$ Jun 20, 2012

 

 

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Eurozone

 

  • Spain Grazing Junk Status Fuels Contagion Risk http://t.co/bEvUbpcE Life is tough near the tipping point; EZone unstable by design $$ Jun 16, 2012
  • A Conversation on Europe’s Political Economy with George Friedman and John Mauldin http://t.co/HysUyF2N Can EZone politics work? $$ 9min vid Jun 15, 2012
  • ECB Tells Court Releasing Greek Swap Files Would Inflame Markets http://t.co/pASYdDNC All-wise ECB tells us we can’t handle the truth $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Central Banks Warn Greek-Led Euro Stress Threatens World http://t.co/fwFSb7wr Central Bankers will dilute the curncys2pay bank ruptures $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Draghi Hints ECB Is Ready to Act http://t.co/dG4QRLTE Nobody else is doing much, so Draghi takes the next step 2 $$ looseness #FTL Jun 15, 2012
  • Merkel?s options: Pay, inflate, or else? http://t.co/6iyl3f0H If the Germans want2keep EZone, must give up @ least 1 of their goals $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Bond Parishioners Are Leaving The Euro Church http://t.co/szDlBJ5m “Liquidity never cures solvency problems which is exactly where we r now” Jun 14, 2012
  • David Rosenberg Channels Felix Zulauf http://t.co/7g7JN8e5 High debt levels combined w/inflexibility of Euro make solutions tough $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Germany and Greece: a tale of estrangement http://t.co/2YFZ2xDY Greece was probably hopeless, but Germany raised/dashed expectations $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Switzerland joining the Eurozone would have to join the EU; would not solve the currency problem but merely make the problem permanent $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • The Dangers of Switzerland’s Currency Strategy http://t.co/ryydgM5Q Switzerland should join the euro http://t.co/zdotnFSb $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • I would love to meet Angela Merkel & discuss the Eurozone w/her, but I know my limits, i am not important enough 4 that 2 happen $$ Jun 13, 2012
  • ?German history teaches us compellingly that isolation would spell disaster,” I don’t agree, and think dissolving the Euro would b best $$ Jun 13, 2012
  • Spanish, Italian Yields Leap Higher http://t.co/KkIgKyYJ How long, to the point of no return? $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Whole world feels soggy $$ RT @agnestcrane: So much for the Spanish bank bailout bounce. Dow down 1.24%, 10-Yr Tsy back below 1.6%. Jun 11, 2012
  • RT @historysquared: ?We cannot push through a banking union when the French have just cut their retirement age to 60 and we have raised … Jun 11, 2012
  • Greek Blackouts Risked as Power Companies? Cash Runs Out http://t.co/qtOOodzG When does Greece finally realize their nation has failed? $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Italy Moves Into Debt-Crisis Crosshairs After Spain http://t.co/SDEe8FQm That’s the nature of contagion; In the EU contagion is ragin’ $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • +1 $$ RT @Queen_Europe: Well, the Spanish might be too big to bail but at least they hold their press conferences on time. #BeingGerman Jun 09, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Venezuela’s Massive Oil Reserves ‘Irrelevant’? http://t.co/rhEZlZXJ Highlights Chavez’s mismanagement of industry, especially crude oil $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Nationalised oil can deliver output growth http://t.co/o0ssVqXb Overly laudatory piece praising the virtues of state-run oil companies $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Unconventional oil to alter geopolitical balance http://t.co/RABAp9FT Balance may get tilted, but I would not expect self-sufficiency $$ Jun 14, 2012

 

Financial Sector

 

  • Duke, GE Tempt Savers With Higher Yield Than Money Funds http://t.co/3HJ3BKzK I would be careful; single creditor risk w/no gtees $$ Jun 16, 2012
  • Jamie Dimon Welcomes You to the Next Financial Crisis http://t.co/6oyULAic Could $JPM make $$ anticipating EZone finl crisis? from @moorehn Jun 15, 2012
  • Why it’s time for higher interest rates http://t.co/xjmZMNub Sheila Bair takes on Paul Krugman & Ben Bernanke’s overly loose $$ policy Jun 15, 2012
  • Americans See Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years http://t.co/Yq5nHxtn Another bright spot, but still lotta mtges r inverted $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Large Institutions Discuss New Marketplace for Bonds http://t.co/t9j4sEtk Few holders, large lot sizes, usually self-liquidating $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Private Equity Has 2 Much Money to Spend on Homes http://t.co/VPToSU8I Don’t get how many residences can b managed @ reasonable expense $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • @mickwe Thanks, Mick, I get it. I have “traded” illiquid securities in my life and have a feel for when claims r invalid. $$ Jun 13, 2012
  • Mortgages Beating Junk Bonds as Homes Top Europe http://t.co/HTjhcz7T Mkt more accepting of nonconforming mtge risk than Eurozone or junk Jun 13, 2012
  • ‘ @GaelicTorus Cool, hexadecimal yields. There are only 10 types of people in the world, those that get binary, and those that don’t $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Loophole at MF Global Is Headache for Regulators http://t.co/P1xUc1Y5 Except Corzine, senior execs weren’t registered w/regulators $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Why do I get so many pump&dump scams in the mail? I’m getting tired of the liars that call themselves analysts who profit from promoting $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • In other words, the crisis hit people who thought they were well-off because of overpriced housing assets; this really isn’t news $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Family Net Worth Fell Almost 40% Between 2007-2010 http://t.co/W4rfdy1o Effect largest on 2nd wealthiest quintile $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Wrong: Hedges’ Assets: $5 Trillion http://t.co/1fcWfhWK Mkt habitat 4 HFs limited by relatively efficient mkts & volatility avoidance $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Banks seek to offload risk on insurers http://t.co/6laka8hb Check my comment at the end; I am dubious that this would work. $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Panel Finds U.S. and Europe Behind Schedule on Financial Rules http://t.co/zGlSjrG6 Not too surprising regulating financials is complex $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Bond Bubble Dismissed as Low Yields Echo Pimco?s New Normal http://t.co/lRtwy360 How do you guarantee receiving value in the future? $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Need Money? Just Ask Your Customers http://t.co/Ce6pj7QL Clever move by companies raising $$, but people who lend to them r patsies $$ Jun 11, 2012

Rest of the World

 

  • With Tax Deal, Japan Deals Initial Blow to Big Debt Problem http://t.co/U5srcgjK Japan still has to fight their population shrinking $$ Jun 16, 2012
  • Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Says Japan May Default by 2017 http://t.co/n0G6TBAC Disagree that Japan will precede Eurozone $$ $FXY Jun 15, 2012
  • Rain, Pests Imperil India?s Wheat Crop as Warehouses Full http://t.co/Qib0xsck What 2do w/a bumper crop that came at the wrong time? $$ Jun 14, 2012

 

Political

 

  • Harvey Golub: A Simple Tax Code Is a Fair Tax Code http://t.co/hwUwbVfE Similar2my proposals: focuses on defn of income, not tax rates $$ Jun 15, 2012
  • Scalia represents the Constitution, which is against Obama and Bush’s Imperial Presidency views. He may be sarcastic? http://t.co/rEc5icLe Jun 15, 2012
  • Inequality: It?s Even Worse Than We Thought http://t.co/hMkbGXBp Highlights Warren Buffett’s ability to avoid capital gains taxation. $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • That said, inequality is unavoidable in a productive society, because some people work harder or smarter than others $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • @StockTwits It’s really difficult to get a muni bond to default. Ch 9 allowed in 48% of states, even then state approval sometimes needed $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Medicaid Fraud Audits Cost Five Times Amount U.S. Found http://t.co/E3Z5d2zt Can’t win 4 losing here. How to fight Medicare fraud? $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • Romney Aide Oversees Fundraising That Makes Him Cash, Too http://t.co/mMQdDf7e Zwick definitely works hard, but he gets a lot for it. $$ Jun 13, 2012
  • ‘ @FrankButcherr If something similar happened in an SEC-regulated context, charges could b brought. But I am not an expert here. $$ #CFTC Jun 12, 2012
  • Obama to Revisit Economic Debate http://t.co/AVbVrgzV A Presidency of Excuses http://t.co/6gv8rkT1 Is fiscal multiplier positive? $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Odd if there is no CFTC regulation that says if you acting in a regulated capacity but you aren’t registered to do so, that’s not a crime $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • States Remain Cautious Even as Finances Improve http://t.co/hAHCBq8F Things better but c this pensions article http://t.co/RQ4PMswj $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Familiar w/author; good guy knows his stuff RT @jasonzweigwsj: who is to blame for the state & municipal budget crisis? http://t.co/YMkU2a9h Jun 12, 2012
  • Obama?s formula for more economic growth? More government http://t.co/eMw5UYiR Obama only has hammer; everything looks like a nail to him $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • @lorriebarkins My friend Cody Willard would say,”flip it,” so I say, “teach them to vote against Republicans and Democrats.” Both r fools $$ Jun 10, 2012

 

Company & Industry News

 

  • Truckers as Leading Indicator Show Stable U.S. Economic Growth http://t.co/irRAJpNm Bright spot amid punk economic conditions $$ Jun 14, 2012
  • GM’s Chief Labors to Get Rebuilt Car Maker Into Gear http://t.co/dFmKObdy New $GM was not in bankruptcy long enough 2 kill old GM $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • RT @ampressman: @AlephBlog They’re saying it now so justices can point to it in fantasy opinions, just like the majority in Citizens United Jun 12, 2012
  • Wrong: Insurers Stand Firm on Benefits http://t.co/aQ0NxDiu These changes will disappear due2 competitive pressure post-strikedown $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Patents may not be as valuable post-Posner’s ruling in the $GOOG – $AAPL trial. Can’t patent basic things. http://t.co/L4rIhlkc $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Companies Shape Curricula in New University Partnerships http://t.co/LhkAI3qi Good in some ways; wonder if this limits creativity? $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Best Time for Best Buy Bid Now as Founder Exits http://t.co/41B34pdm Really doubt $BBY goes private; deteriorating erns, internet competes Jun 11, 2012
  • +1 RT @StockTwits: Love This! – Famous judge spikes $AAPL v $GOOG case, calls patent *system ?dysfunctional? http://t.co/WXOjNmmi via @gigaom Jun 09, 2012

 

China

?

  • China one-child policy leads to forced abortions, mothers’ deaths http://t.co/JiwypM8q Yes, forced abortions in China & don’t care 4 moms $$ Jun 16, 2012

 

Market Factors

 

  • Foreigners Snap Up Properties in the U.S. http://t.co/4oeyYAey Offers wealthy foreigners options in a crisis & for vacations/college $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • Junk Yields Fail to Deter Investors Seeing No Recession http://t.co/YPeNc1HP Remember, the junk bond mkt works on a yield not spread basis Jun 12, 2012
  • @fuzzyinvesticle @dpinsen I put more trust in the Q-ratio, CAPE, Price/Resources, & @eddyelfenbein ‘s view stock market as a bond measure $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • The Two Reasons Stocks Won’t Get as Cheap as They Did in 1982 http://t.co/QXXjdUCc Reasons: low int rates, high buybacks. Not convinced $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Counting on an Inheritance? Count Again. http://t.co/1Z0cnjkl Far more likely that u will support your parents than receive a bequest $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • Impressed w/ @saraeisenFX Asks great questions of Marc Faber http://t.co/pgDzHIhf & George Papandreou http://t.co/hgn8K Buy #video $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • @newrulesinvest I also admire and voted for Terrance Odean & Jason Zweig; they are bright men who deserve attention by all. $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • @BoydRoddy Thank you Roddy, and I am honored to be mentioned in the same sentence as the estimable @John_Hempton. $$ Jun 11, 2012
  • . @lorriebarkins I teach people about money so that they will b wiser; wise people r less easily taken by hucksters & popular fads $$ Jun 10, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • Just felt weird, but I laughed $$ RT @ReformedBroker: We Are All Rajat Gupta Now. Not sure what that means, just felt right. Jun 15, 2012
  • ‘ @GaelicTorus It’s my opinion that markets don’t create liquidity; they reflect the native liquidity of the asset being traded $$ #testidea Jun 14, 2012
  • @Pfro That’s not my experience. We have come so far on racism in the US that my adopted black children haven’t experienced it. $$ Jun 12, 2012
  • RT @ToddSullivan: Keep hearing people tell High School Grads “these are the best years of your life” …what a terrible message to send … Jun 11, 2012
  • RE: @wstreetallstars Wow, Cody, very glad that you survived.? What an ordeal.? Praying for you, and those near you. http://t.co/HcuU6R89 Jun 11, 2012
  • @asymmetricinfo Brings meaning to the phrase “Lied like a finance minister on the eve of the devaluation.” Jun 11, 2012
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