Search Results for: Education of an investment risk manager

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

?Note: this is the 100th weekly edition of sorted weekly tweets.

Market Impact

?

  • Standing Out from the Crowd: Measuring Crowding in Quantitative Strategies http://t.co/MRjZ8d8GGL Overinvestment in strategy precedes losses Feb 08, 2014
  • Does Fair Value Accounting Contribute to Market Price Volatility? An Experimental Approach http://t.co/YQqQPrwMwr Short answer: no $$ $XLF Feb 08, 2014
  • The Deeper Causes of the Financial Crisis: Mortgages Alone Cannot Explain It http://t.co/0P7fMrQWKn But they were the leading cause $$ $XLF Feb 08, 2014
  • Contagion Rejected as Biggest Bond Buyers Double Down on Junk http://t.co/5wm1k4Ghlw Makes me think the correction will b another crisis $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Hedge Funds Preparing for $1T Property Bill http://t.co/RRQN992uat Key Q: Will they limit their risks prior to the next commercl RE bust? $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Apollo Credit Twice Size of LBOs Shows Private-Equity Shift http://t.co/J69eh3TPTn Not a good sign, nonstandard lenders r fragile $$ $APO Feb 07, 2014
  • Five Pointers on Floating-Rate Funds http://t.co/sV6JtizBlN Don’t chase performance, rates may not rise, nor yields, adds credit risk $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Inverse VIX Fund Gets Record Cash on Calm Market Bet http://t.co/YSHGpON0DE Be careful to not hold it long $$ $VXX http://t.co/qGCycKbPsX Feb 05, 2014
  • World’s cheapest stock markets: Where are shares cheap? http://t.co/3Uvq1HZfSF Gives u a rough idea as 2 where values may b found $$ $SPY Feb 04, 2014
  • Gundlach Shows Why Betting Against Treasuries Is a Fool?s Game http://t.co/R0s4wQLcbu Interesting that he is in long Tsys $$ FD: + $TLT Feb 03, 2014
  • Monday?s Selloff, by the Numbers http://t.co/LseNtCUEXz That’s 2 large >2% down days in less than 2 weeks $$ $SPY Feb 03, 2014

?

Companies & Industries

 

  • Big Pizza Chains Use Web to Slice Out Bigger Market Share http://t.co/C6xQeSWmlr Easier 4 large chains 2 implement online ordering $$ $PZZA Feb 08, 2014
  • SodaStream?s New Mainstream Rivals: Coke and Green Mountain http://t.co/zOkwpBpOiK All the more reason 4 $PEP 2 buy $SODA $$ Feb 07, 2014
  • Why Discount Airlines Draw Fewer Complaints (Hint: It’s Not Better Service) http://t.co/a8rzqrf0DU Friendlier attitudes r better service $$ Feb 07, 2014
  • Satyajit Das: The Truth About Bank Earnings http://t.co/9FzkPbbyIm Bank earnings r lower quality; getting harder to increase them $$ $XLF Feb 05, 2014
  • Experts testify on true cost of Target breach http://t.co/FGVRFBvc6K Magnetic stripes will go away, & chips &/or PINs will appear $$ $TGT Feb 05, 2014
  • Apple Quietly Builds New Networks http://t.co/bncx84P4RW $AAPL certainly has spare $$ to throw at it, enhancing service quality $NFLX $GOOG Feb 04, 2014
  • H-P Finds Accounting Errors at Autonomy Unit http://t.co/9cQFBamwpI We knew it was a dumb deal at the time, now $HPQ shows just how dumb $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Prophet of No Profit: How Jeff Bezos won the faith of Wall Street. http://t.co/eaZmKgfnir Moats, operating leverage, pricing power $$ $AMZN Feb 01, 2014
  • Ask Buffett what he would be willing 2pay 4 $AMZN — after all, it has significant moats. I think he would put it in the “too hard” pile $$ Feb 01, 2014

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China, the Death Star of Emerging Markets http://t.co/zFmo0RkXva @williampesek points at financial bubble in China; what will make it pop $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Scandal Tests Chinese President’s Standing With Military http://t.co/cHGvLtROFE Corruption is a major issue 4 China, between Party & Army $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Saudi Twitter Debate as Citizens Criticize Government http://t.co/quwkxpkHDX Social media allows criticism tht would not b done in public $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • China Savers? Penchant for Property Magnifies Bust Danger http://t.co/yrfDYQK5KH Anytime a single investment strategy dominates -> worry $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Pimco?s Bill Gross Says He Avoids China ?Mystery Meat? http://t.co/My6P5x1jE0 Great phrase as we do not know much about indebted China $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Sao Paulo Biggest Water-Supply System May Run Dry Within 45 Days http://t.co/fEcioInfjX Many water systems r near their limits globally $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Emerging Stocks Drop to 5-Month Low Led by China as Ruble Gains http://t.co/aWgDSdVBUt Not all emerging mkts r equal, some financed wrong $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Japan Sees Worst Developed-Stock Rout as Nikkei 225 Drops http://t.co/UQDhX1a3XL Current mkt reveals weak underlying fundamentals $$ $FXY Feb 04, 2014
  • Dad Can?t Buy Daughter Shoes as Argentine Currency Falls http://t.co/WTnUn1Okf0 ?Do you know how I feel buying my daughter used shoes?? $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Argentina Scrambles To Raise $10B, Avoid Reserve Collapse; BONARs Bidless http://t.co/Xx4t0dFqCk Only hold hard assets in Silverland $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • EM rout? Or Intervention Sunday? http://t.co/d54Qjj4X2S Difficult to tell what Developed Mkt policymakers will do, they r strapped @ home $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Argentina Bust Lures Investors After 200 Years of Defaults http://t.co/YoWjotidcp Invest in the hard stuff, land does not depreciate $$ $IRS Feb 04, 2014
  • Emerging-Market Rout Seen Enduring on Low Real Rates http://t.co/RTxP6GjMVw Funding structures of some emerging markets fall, $$ goes 2 $TLT Feb 04, 2014
  • Canadian Oil Rises as California Ships in Record Amount by Rail http://t.co/CKvu4BEqJl Retweet after me: Pipelines r cleaner & safer $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Analysis: Emerging markets outlook not rosy, but valuations tempt http://t.co/hADIRvUK5g This may b a time 2nibble, not a time 2gulp $$ $EEM Feb 04, 2014

 

US Politics & Policy

?

  • AOL is leading the way to make 401(k)s worse for everyone http://t.co/AnlQ1Ud6Ds Meh; new employers will compensate workers that lose $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • ‘Six Californias’ plan difficult but doable, assessment shows http://t.co/nuw3S6rLVl Ideas like this come & go in a fragmented California $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • No, CBO did not say Obamacare will kill 2M jobs http://t.co/RHsSai7rwv Rather, will discourage 2M from working full-time; big deal $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Ex-NSA Chief Details Snowden’s Hiring at Agency, Booz Allen http://t.co/EWRuqlViXW Snowden set back US intelligence by 20+ yrs. Good. $$ Feb 06, 2014
  • The Tyranny and Lethargy of the Times Editorial Page http://t.co/hbW20h6Vjn Inside baseball, picture sums up story http://t.co/USlMTh4Bm0 $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Puerto Rico Has Credit Rating Cut One Step 2Junk by S&P http://t.co/4Av3ftwL8q also http://t.co/QkwCnXQdcy Well-deserved, default coming $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Going on 30, Living With Mom and Dad http://t.co/Wo4YB74mKo Part is being slow 2 marry, then education, poor career choices, motivation $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Crop Insurers Win as Congress is Poised to Pass Farm Law http://t.co/rFNrEDhYkZ If we can’t reduce ag subsidies when ag is healthy… $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Obamacare Wonks Flunk Data Analysis http://t.co/Ss2Tc3q2e9 You can show lots of savings if u show your winners & hide your losers $$ $SPY Feb 04, 2014
  • CBO: Obamacare Will Lead To 2M Fewer Workers In Labor Force By 2017 http://t.co/OsCrQOUORb Unintended consequences; fix this, break that $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Fed Presidents Say Stock Decline Unlikely to Derail QE Taper http://t.co/pdoloENc9L In the short-run true, but if the decline persists… $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • Investment Manager Explains Why 99.5% Of Americans Can Never Win http://t.co/MqngZy7zZW Tax code is cockeyed, wealthy can avoid taxation $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • How Feds? Double Standard Enables Bad Bankers http://t.co/AGok7eeqdU Simple: little bankers get prosecuted; big banks get fined $$ $BNK $XLF Feb 04, 2014
  • Early Drive for Hillary Clinton Unsettles Democrats http://t.co/Hb3lJnpnr6 Some Worry It Will Siphon $$ from Candidates in Midterm Elections Feb 04, 2014
  • You Can Thank or Blame Richard Stanger for Writing 401(k) http://t.co/wX38lGA4m4 Many important laws r accidental; killed DB pensions $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • ISM Miss Is Ugly All Around http://t.co/Px97nGSccl I’ve been arguing that the economy is weaker than it looks 4 a while; here’s a clue $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • US Banks Ease Loan Standards in Fed Survey as Demand Rises http://t.co/etkDJPLLhN Can inflation b far behind if this persists? $$ $TLT $TIP Feb 04, 2014
  • California Dries Up as Brown Pushes $15B Tunnel http://t.co/r4boO9Tzzo If u don’t allocate water economically, becomes a political fight $$ Feb 04, 2014

?

Other

 

  • Financial Blogging: How to Write Powerful Posts That Attract Clients http://t.co/fxmxkLJKbS My longer review: http://t.co/lOqexXT7RO $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Why I Did Not Go To Jail http://t.co/4EtyFFyTyg @bhorowitz good read on the importance of proper company, legal, & incentives structure $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Daniel Suarez Sees Into the Future http://t.co/kkLkxcmvnv ‘Influx’ may propel sci-fi writer in2 void left by Tom Clancy &Michael Crichton $$ Feb 08, 2014
  • Why Melted Cheese Does the Trick http://t.co/ZACj1EaWKB Creaminess enhances the textures and flavors of other foods $$ $KFT $DF Feb 06, 2014
  • Deadly New Bird Flu Strain Spawned by Virus Behind H5N1 http://t.co/b0fLG89fkg This is overblown. People die from the flu each year $$ $SPY Feb 05, 2014
  • Young Bankers Seek ?Good Yield? With Their Own Nonprofits http://t.co/gJZVwJ5lse Wealthy & powerful like 2b thought benefactors $$ Lk 22:25 Feb 04, 2014
  • How the Seattle Seahawks solved Peyton Manning http://t.co/0P0kiHnddI Even if u r not into football, interesting 4 understanding strategy $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Super Bowl Safety Is Blow for Broncos and Las Vegas Sportsbooks http://t.co/2vXpm4IRbl The odds r interesting to read 4 unusual bets $$ $SPY Feb 04, 2014
  • Microsoft Adds Momentum to ?Open Science? |http://t.co/Ar6WCDKNug Understand that scientists r not neutral observers; they have 2 publish $$ Feb 04, 2014
  • Carney leaving CNBC for WSJ?s ?Heard on the Street? |http://t.co/dRNtplkOQB @carney gets a significant promotion! Congrats! $$ $SPY $TLT $GE Feb 01, 2014

 

Other Economics

 

  • Free Checking Is Disappearing Perk http://t.co/pZwsA0u3sl Smaller banks often offer better deals than big banks on checking $$ $XLF $SPY Feb 08, 2014
  • More Men in Prime Working Ages Don’t Have Jobs http://t.co/YmAjNcQrc5 1 of the qualitative factors that show how punk the economy is $$ $SPY Feb 08, 2014
  • An International Gold Standard Beats The Rule Of The Governing Elite http://t.co/GoTHUVusXK Old, makes point gold standard was better $$ Feb 05, 2014

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: High unemployment putting the ECB in isolation http://t.co/wlBQOP7JqM Loose monetary policy doesn’t lower L-T unemployment $$ #global Feb 08, 2014
  • Wrong: America The Startup http://t.co/C0Rax7KPJP Worth a read, but the writer does not really understand the Pilgrims or the Puritans $$ Feb 04, 2014

?

Retweets, Replies, & Comments

  • @HistoryInPix Cemented the creation of the graphical user interface, buggy in prior versions, aside from pricey Macintosh ghetto Feb 06, 2014
  • ‘ @catofwallstreet the credit cards will have chips, not us- already have these in Europe. Also, consider amillenialism or postmillenialism. Feb 05, 2014
  • RT @PUMPSandDUMPS: This fan says it all http://t.co/MryfT9l04a #pennystocks Feb 05, 2014
  • Ice falling, branches too, west of Baltimore — kind of pretty $$ #weather Feb 05, 2014
  • @DavidSchawel The difference between dollar-weighted & Time-weighted returns is crucial but few get that. Good tweet on $DBLTX $$ Feb 05, 2014
  • RT @DavidSchawel: Retail psychology: chasing performance, then puking the bottom & missing the bounce-DBLTX Fund assets vs adjusted NAV htt? Feb 05, 2014
  • RT @cate_long: Cheers! “@carney: Thanks everyone! Very excited to be joining the @wsjheard team! Some details here http://t.co/sjLSyTMIEH Feb 01, 2014
  • @dpinsen not all, but a majority Feb 01, 2014

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Interest Rates

  • How Sensitive we are to Interest Rates: A Scary Picture? http://t.co/gkKi3sSLbs Argues moderate rise in rates inverts banks & governments $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Fixing Economy As Easy As 1-2-3 http://t.co/sbW97kL2n7 Axel Merk says 2 make policy predictable, let interest rates rise & allow failure $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Low Rates Bring Bond Bonanza http://t.co/f8gQ0rjcTB Corporations act to lock in cheap long-term financing 2pay dividends & buy back stock $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Fed QE Taper Seen Delayed to March as Shutdown Bites http://t.co/v2Bo85GP9m Would not b so sure here; this is only a survey of economists $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • The ‘Rate Gap’ Is Rising http://t.co/w9dSYfQCl5 Gap between deposit rates & borrowing rates is higher than it’s been in 32 of last 40 yrs $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Alan Greenspan: Where the Economy Went Wrong http://t.co/a7t3RGvbSZ Fed does not get they created the housing bubble; learn the bond math $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Javelin Files 2 Trade Interest-Rate Swaps, Spurring SEF Shift http://t.co/B6KOHsmmpy Smart. Start w/simple liquid derivatives @ exchanges $$ Oct 20, 2013

?PPACA/ Obamacare

 

  • Court could block Obamacare subsidies in 34 states http://t.co/ej65x9fALf Legal challenge could knock out the federal exchanges $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Botched Launch of Health Site Blamed on Poor Coordination http://t.co/iwH5vsbftX The software developers point the finger at one another $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Federal Centers 4 Medicare and Medicaid Services acted as its own systems integrator for the site: unusual arrangement 4a complex project.$$ Oct 25, 2013
  • White House Sets Late-November Target for Fixes to Health Site http://t.co/WebNZLBebq UnitedHealth Group Unit Tapped to Oversee Repairs $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Obama Says Health Care Law More Important Than Website http://t.co/SopPqG99ky If a law can’t b administered properly what good is it? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Why Obamacare Is Like Three Mile Island http://t.co/STOU4Ng3KL Problems in overall plan design were foreseeable; not merely and accident $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Noonan: ObamaCare Takes On Water http://t.co/cpKjIyJZWg Software development is difficult when no single party responsible for everything $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Contractors See Weeks of Work on Health Site http://t.co/WUoqiaiMtZ Have friends that once worked 4 CGI; to them this is no surprise $$ Oct 22, 2013

Rest of the World

 

  • Top China Banks Triple Debt Write-Offs as Defaults Loom http://t.co/DYNZ8shAV5 They trying to get ahead of the problem, but it’s too big $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Local Governments Have Borrowed a Pile of Money in Recent Years, Leaving Even Beijing Wondering How Much $$ http://t.co/YZKTKDUjs0 Oct 25, 2013
  • Jail Time No Bar to Tea-Server Turned Top Woman Bureaucrat http://t.co/WKWO4MmPwu While detained, she used the free time 2 read 150 books $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Yakuza Bosses Whacked by Regulators Freezing AmEx Cards http://t.co/qCKQI7Mo4s Money is often the easiest thing to track; leaves a trail $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • I realize that @Borderscrossed , & I phrased that tweet wrong — the Chinese typically play w/lower risk ventures. This is unusual 4them $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • China Inc. Battles Big Oil for Century?s Biggest Find http://t.co/CCm4QxgpC8 They have capital, but not expertise, & r rolling the dice $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Obama Joins Putin War as Syria Jihadists Stalk Olympics http://t.co/zxwpTvWiv1 The Winter Olympic games in Sochi could be a real blast $$ 😉 Oct 25, 2013
  • Saudi Women Plan to Hit Roads in New Push for Right to Drive http://t.co/Iu78Zmsxp0 Fear: if they r allowed 2 drive, will drive out of SA $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • 40 Years After Embargo, OPEC Is Over a Barrel http://t.co/6CcliMnOkv Few things r truly certain. Dead Worries: OPEC, Russia, Japan, China $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • The Chinese Characters Dictation Competition Is a Test Few Could Pass http://t.co/5MnpMaMozF Chinese spelling bee w/ideographs; tough $$ Oct 20, 2013

US Politics & Economics

 

  • Financial Report of the US Government http://t.co/9rknzA89Te Here’s my piece. The unfunded liabilities of the Fed Govt r ~$78T $$ 5x GDP Oct 26, 2013
  • If you call a crash & you get the reason right, that *is* impressive; timing is always tough. Hint: look for a arb that has gone negative $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • ?Outrageous? tax loopholes in Democrat?s sights http://t.co/ibntGjND15 Every loophole has coalition to block its elimination; won’t work $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Budget Discord Simmers Among Democrats http://t.co/gdNJqQTXEI Some Liberal Groups, Lawmakers Worry About Cuts 2Entitlements $$ biggest issue Oct 25, 2013
  • Treasuries Lose Cachet on Lowest Foreign Demand Since ?01 http://t.co/0PhlcmXXqv Bondholders have short memories; wouldn’t worry $$ $TLT Oct 25, 2013
  • Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Chances: The Coming Train Wreck http://t.co/JN61FbNNrY Will test whether having a long political resume is good $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Never believe anything in Washington, DC until it is explicitly denied. The US Government has lied to us in the past $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • The Lessons of Classified Information: From Mossadegh to Snowden http://t.co/Ab7ytJrdRA CIA plot in Iran widely suspected, now confirmed $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Middle Class Americans Face a Retirement Shutdown; 37% Say ?I?ll Never Retire, But Work Until I?m 2 Sick or Die,? $$ http://t.co/oGDNMful7I Oct 25, 2013
  • Reality is setting in if 37% think they won’t b able to retire. http://t.co/LA9KI4Tvrx Reality will arrive when number is 80% $$ $TLT $SPY Oct 25, 2013
  • Selling the Good Life on the Great Plains http://t.co/fKl4Jh8syI Rural areas pitch the slower pace to city dwellers in order to survive $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Stanley Druckenmiller: How Washington Really Redistributes Income http://t.co/Cbkv9FyRu9 Baby Boomers suck the blood of those younger $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Banks Pushed by Regulators Send ?Nastygrams? to Car Dealers http://t.co/W9RC6BJP7x Discrimination in lending is taking heat from the CFPB $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Two articles on States Clamping Down on Workers as Contractors http://t.co/QQXoTSRZOU & http://t.co/a1OUq8MvNE Develop significant skills $$ Oct 20, 2013

Companies & Industries

 

  • Abby Johnson, the rarely seen face of Fidelity http://t.co/6dJHDIm7ES Wonder if the Washington Post pulled the story under pressure $$ $WPO Oct 25, 2013
  • Might Google Have a Sly Motive Behind Motorola? http://t.co/FwtqFYXYoV Argues that $GOOG bot Motorola 2 poison profits 4 $AAPL & $SSNLF $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Cruise Prices Sinking: Some Now Cheaper Than Motel 6 http://t.co/dhjvxc8ytS They will leave the light on 4u; the buffet will b open 2 $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Buffett says he passed on buying Washington Post http://t.co/dvZciwJDJh Definitely one to avoid, or throw in the “too hard” bin $$ $WPO Oct 25, 2013
  • Wal-Mart Now Draws More Solar Power Than 38 US States http://t.co/ysFvCFHWgr Drop the solar subsidies, and see if $WMT would still do it $$ Oct 25, 2013

The Financial Sector

 

  • Margin Debt Hits New High http://t.co/r0bXQwBs6X Where will additional buying power come to push up stock prices? Only game left is QE? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • House flipping makes a comeback http://t.co/VAIcl86lQk Speculation returning to housing market; remember, only cash flows matter 4 prices $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • PCAOB Warns on Internal-Control Problems http://t.co/ZKZQwBnICe 15% of Auditors didn’t get enough data on internal control effectiveness $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Weitz to Yacktman Hold Cash as Managers Find Few Bargains http://t.co/RXFoMbBJfX Not many places 2 compound value w/margin of safety $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • US extends backing for higher-priced mortgages http://t.co/Yk5zHr9CcW Continuing to subsidize overinvestment in residential real estate $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Buffett Says Gains in Housing Fall Short of Equilibrium http://t.co/aMp5aawapZ Rare wrong Buffett; US overinvests in residential RE $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Dollar Drops to 8-Month Low as Risk Appetite Swells on Fed Bets http://t.co/KtQDmkS4Yf Fed surprising w/unexpected looseness so $$ falls Oct 20, 2013

Other

 

  • A CIO?s First Task: Understanding the Culture http://t.co/4cg1GdKBZo Understanding the culture is a key to most leadership roles $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Never Shop in October and Other Secrets From a Retail Guru http://t.co/KoWB9NYsmt Tips on how to avoid how retailers try 2 influence u $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • The Boss Is Watching: Tracking Technology Shakes Up Workplace http://t.co/WDAzYg1MJK Little brother watches 4 employees who shirk $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Ex-Madoff Employee Tells Jury of ?Cut And Paste? Trades http://t.co/SJCd2TU13b Employees claim they were duped by Madoff. Q: were they? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Book Review: ‘Johnny Carson’ by Henry Bushkin http://t.co/OTB8HMQK6e Bombastic Bushkin gets 2 dance on the grave in this tell-all book $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • So You Want to Go to Winemaking School? http://t.co/JdpI5QCE6t Visit the UC-Davis viticultural & oenology program. $$ #wine Oct 20, 2013
  • It isn’t only one of the oldest winemaking programs in the country, but arguably the most prestigious $$ #wine Oct 20, 2013
  • The First Car You Can Build Yourself… in an Hour http://t.co/bZF43gH3ti Pretty cool for a little more than $8000 $$ Ships in a box Oct 20, 2013
  • The Gap Between Schooling and Education http://t.co/zJGqxgkoTT @AnnieLowrey interviews author of forthcoming book: http://t.co/bgftBBsT7d $$ Oct 19, 2013
  • Schools amplify parenting cultures. Motivated parents create good schools; too many top-down demands on schools inhibits true learning $$ Oct 19, 2013

Wrong

  • Wrong: Another billionaire is predicting doom. Ignore him. http://t.co/qh8BBp0izo Rather ignore this writer; doesn’t understand the stats $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Wrong: Does the United States have $128 trillion in unfunded liabilities? http://t.co/D5Z3dkPICT Writer does not understand the figures $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Wrong: Stanley Druckenmiller crisis predictions: Anyone can call a bubble years in advance. http://t.co/0W9FhMyHKT But few succeed $$ Oct 25, 2013

Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • I wrote about that more than once @DividendMaster . E.g. http://t.co/SrBiSHsHVZ $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • “They are reinvesting their free cash flow, which is different than profits.?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/bt0CCZW9zH $$ $AMZN Oct 25, 2013
  • Same Old Amazon: All Sales, No Profit http://t.co/FL6ZbcGh8j $AMZN borrows2fund investment & uses free cashflow, much like private equity $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • RT @JimPethokoukis: 11.2%: What the unemployment rate would be if labor force participation was the same as when the recession started Oct 23, 2013
  • Experian Sold Consumer Data to ID Theft Service http://t.co/tjJbAXXxuN @japhychron yes, significant reason to worry & watch 4 ID theft $$ Oct 22, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

 

  • Catalonia Wants ECB Seat After Referendum http://t.co/Dbggf0LOWs So Catalonians want to be free? Guess what, the EU does not want that $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • French State?s Bluster Belies Alcatel?s Job-Cutting Reality http://t.co/kzmpjKDNTC France will lose; companies will leave, so will jobs $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • Danes With World-Beating Debt Loads Prepare 2 Dig Deeper http://t.co/Vgx0fqqf9N This will eventually blow up; it is only a matter of time $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • Tepco Gets Japan?s First LNG Spot Cargo From Angola at Futtsu http://t.co/A3OnIzAFJH Future of energy is more efficient hydrocarbon use $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • France Calls for Alcatel-Lucent to Revise Job Cuts Plan http://t.co/KySqRhGqvN France won’t b happy until every large business leaves $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Korean Banks? Margins Seen at 4-Year Low on Rate Decline http://t.co/bWhpoYhs6g High pread loans mature, low spread loans originated $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Icelanders Run Out of Cash to Repay Foreign Debts http://t.co/RdCFa8jRl4 Perhaps they can default on these debts as well $$ #externaldefault Oct 09, 2013
  • Swedish Bubble Concern Grows With Soaring Home Prices http://t.co/VwiAVbm1wD What happens when monetary/financial policy is too loose $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Algerians Cry Currency as Euro Black Market Thrives http://t.co/ftRHUXwF3q Really bad currencies attract competition from betr currencies $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Finns Foraging for Cheap Food Shows Price of AAA Obsession http://t.co/kuPKb8g3KQ Really, it’s being in the E-Zone, not having own curncy $$ Oct 07, 2013

 

US Politics

 

  • 7 doomsday default scenarios http://t.co/sDgNpzRCSU There is nothing good here, particularly banks and money market funds blowing up $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • Budget Battle Ends Soon With Tea Party Loss: King, Corker http://t.co/Dk6XVMUPRo Discharge petition coming as liberal GOP teams w/Dems $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Now Is the Time to Delay ObamaCare http://t.co/Dklp65OWnJ Make case off of lack of technical readiness of computer systems $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • EPA may reduce ethanol blending volumes for 2014 -sources http://t.co/Ve4DU5AaV2 End the RIN-sanity & watch refiner stock prices fly $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Legislative History of Sec 4 of 14th Amndmnt http://t.co/JCEmr9SnHZ Must Executive prioritize payments? Must Congress raise debt ceiling? $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Justice Kennedy Offers Views on Shutdown, Congress, Gay Marriage http://t.co/Nq9VcPtbNn Love him, hate him, you have to understand him $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Obama Seems 2Think Presidency Gives Him Absolute Power http://t.co/IhFwBRTcYn Scotus has ruled presidents can’t delay, amend or repeal laws Oct 09, 2013
  • Surplus to Cost Uncle Sugar Up to $300M http://t.co/vl4QNMq2Vb Environmentalists & free marketers can agree: Eliminate sugar subsidies $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Once the budget is balanced, businessmen will have greater certainty over sustainable tax policy, & will become more aggressive $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Ryan: Here’s How We Can End This Stalemate http://t.co/QePY6Y3XWd Behind every economic debate in DC, entitlements is the hidden issue $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • President Obama Might Ask Who Benefits from US Debt Default http://t.co/F8mzQQQSUU Anybody know how big total notional amt on CDS on US? $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • White House Backs Temporary Debt-Ceiling Fix http://t.co/moMSWfLKab This may be how agreement is reached, w/some budget compromise also $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Meltdowns Hobble NSA Data Center http://t.co/NpnnX0eyPy Investigators Stumped by What’s Causing Power Surges That Destroy Equipment $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • USDA Buyers Stuck in Limbo as Shutdown Hurts Housing http://t.co/M0LvI019Ye USDA should not be in the lending business. Ag is doing well $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • He Beat Us in War but Never in Battle http://t.co/Gixl0Fm9mt John McCain writes on recently deceased N. Vietnamese Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Americans are more conservative than they have been in decades http://t.co/GQrkq0ZHg5 I find this difficult 2 believe, would b more chg $$ Oct 07, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Better Beta Is No Monkey Business http://t.co/UrSmi7Ql3h High dividend stocks are overvalued; dividends are not the best proxy for value $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • The BIGGEST Problem with Buy and Hold http://t.co/lIb3cQpqgY Biggest companies, bot&held do not have the same room to grow vs smaller cos $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • How Investors Lose 89% of Gains from Futures Funds http://t.co/inEYR2xDgi Long article on how managed futures doesn’t make $$ 4retail invtrs Oct 08, 2013
  • Worst Stocks to Reverse With Commodity Profits Rising 18% http://t.co/ImKtQ5KXPi A contrarian idea w/precious metals doing poorly of late $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Finra to Consider Requiring Brokerages to Carry Arbitration Insurance http://t.co/qjxeVp89b7 A very good idea; mkt would weed out the bad $$ Oct 06, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Boeing’s New 777X Could Make the Largest Jumbo Jets Obsolete http://t.co/VnBflpZ6dr Efficient engines, folding wings end the 747 era $$ $BA Oct 11, 2013
  • US eyes cutting ethanol usage http://t.co/d7r88Z2hA8 This should be a no-brainer, aside from corn farmers, $ADM, & ethanol refiners $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon: ‘The Everything Store? http://t.co/EtF1QvWcqg Looong & interesting about Amazon & its founder’s origins $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Costco Stands Behind Its Cheap Rotisserie Chicken Strategy http://t.co/aptxcuyH8u $5 for a Rotisserie Chicken? Can’t buy raw that cheap $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Verizon and Vodafone Talks Took Four International Cities and Eight Months http://t.co/GmR1XjxTgl Patient $VOD wins against needy $VZ $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • US Banks Margin Under Tremendous Pressure http://t.co/EQVHiLmKWr Funding costs can’t get much lower, while old high-yielding loans mature $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Ohio Smelter Faces Shutdown Without Utility Rate Relief http://t.co/O87iyfFdNQ & aluminum is in oversupply; why should we subsidize this? Oct 06, 2013

Healthcare

  • Mapping America?s Coronary Stent Hot Spots http://t.co/EFfUjfbjHD Check & c whether u live in an area that over-installs stents $$ #savelife Oct 10, 2013
  • Mother Dies Amid Abuses in $110B US Stent Assembly Line http://t.co/Nag1UCiqfi Sad tale of medicine done 4 profit 2 the harm of patients $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Micro Businesses Find Health-Care Rollout Is Slow http://t.co/1hhcfPlCfX State Small-Business Exchanges Still Aren’t Ready $$ #gigo Oct 08, 2013
  • Republicans Didn’t Sabotage Health Exchanges, Obama Did http://t.co/OkGA7HEBVw Very difficult 2get complex programming projects done fast $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Robot Surgery Damaging Patients Rises With Marketing http://t.co/fFe29Nesdp Check out track record of any doctor doing robotic surgery $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Exchanges Will Raise US Healthcare Costs http://t.co/8UhQm58INQ Removing economic incentives has always raised healthcare costs $$ Oct 07, 2013
  • IT experts question architecture of Obamacare website http://t.co/hvfjKXp5Rt System architecture flaws caused problems, not traffic alone $$ Oct 07, 2013

 

US Local Economics

 

  • GED Faces New Rivals for High School Dropouts http://t.co/SG0UQ1wqzT Passing the GED doesn’t mean much, but if you pass a tougher test? $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • Machines Gauging Your Star Potential Automate HR Hiring http://t.co/MOcnq8Hd5E Can playing games well reveal u better than your resume? $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Montana Towns Struggle With Oil Boom Cost as Dollars Flee http://t.co/3Wz5aUCc2p Small town’s budget can’t keep up w/Infrastructure needs $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Housing Boom Bigger in Texas as Home Bidding Wars Erupt http://t.co/GyOZGL1fgC the Texas economy very strong & the builders can?t keep up $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Puerto Rico Debt Troubles Regulators http://t.co/s3b54N9UsT Check your muni bond fund, b/c even single state funds bot PR 4extra yield $$ Oct 07, 2013
  • Pay Raises for Teachers With Master’s Under Fire http://t.co/N3ogmAntdZ The next study should b whether education BAs harm teaching skill $$ Oct 07, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Colleges Try Cutting Tuition?& Aid Packages http://t.co/6MWuklxikq Unlikely 2 work; higher sticker w/greater aid helps selectivity/cachet $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Snowden Says He Has No Regrets http://t.co/KFVhXMW7Fu satisfied his actions had an impact; Sam Adams Award 4Integrity in Intelligence $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Baseball Battling Dominican Drug Use While Grappling With A-Rod http://t.co/kU2zOHvECu Doping begins in the minors, w/many from DR league $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Light Point Security: A Software ‘Jail’ 4 Malware? http://t.co/s1cPTtwlD6 Clever idea: browse in the cloud, image relayed 2local browser $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Chemistry Nobel Goes to Three for Computer Program Work http://t.co/GBZA3RtgcB Interesting. Didn’t know u could do chemistry w/computers $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Sudden Collapse of Cloud Provider Rattled IAC http://t.co/ilhmBtahWe If cloud provider announces shutdown, act fast 2preserve your data $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • New York Bans Harbinger’s Falcone From Insurance Role http://t.co/IFfrBHv9Xq Interesting how the NY Commish got Falcone out of MD ins sub $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Gold Befuddles Bernanke as Central Banks? Losses at $545B http://t.co/lgtX56v0Oq Central Banks r not immune from the fear/greed cycle $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Younger Americans Fare Poorly on Skills Against International Peers http://t.co/c5dL26lXPM But Americans r more flexible & creative $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Finance People To Follow On Twitter http://t.co/Q6jBZWGtkg A great list, at least for those that I know, should u have time 2follow 106 $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • Humans Trump Robots at the Grocery Store http://t.co/atazmQ8R5h Cashiers Trump Self-Checkout Machines at the Grocery Store $$ Oct 07, 2013

?

Janet Yellen

  • When Yellen Speaks World Listens as Fed Plans US Course http://t.co/iRO9Fg6JMf More hagiography as media/acdmics overestimate her ability $$ Oct 11, 2013
  • Senate Confirmation Hearing 2Test Yellen’s Skills of Communication http://t.co/3lQVrH3zXh Can she think on her feet w/hostile questioners $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • The Yellen Difference http://t.co/Wgeop65jct How Yellen is different than Bernanke: Tobin Keynesians will b in charge at Federal Reserve $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Janet Yellen: 5 Things You Should Know About Obama?s Fed Chair Nominee http://t.co/52Ie5o9nkk Wealthy, apolitical, Akerlof, forecasting $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Yellen 2b Named Fed Chairman, First Female Chief http://t.co/DSsky1sDgM What’s done is done; someone has 2b the fall guy/gal $$ #glasscliff Oct 09, 2013

?

Tower Group

  • Commented on StockTwits: It’s a question of probabilities. Clearly the odds are higher now than a week ago, much h… http://t.co/XPlzWLxvy9 Oct 10, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: I used 2b a corporate bond manager. When u c a 1-yr obligation trading below $95, solven… http://t.co/AugmpPF1Ib Oct 10, 2013
  • Risky equities should be priced to earn 20%+. The bonds of $TWGP yield 20%+. Makes me think bonds r the true equity & stock a call option $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • 20%+ yield = panic $$ RT $TWGP just watch the bonds they are $88 and B-. Off lows they do not reveal panic. HOLD. http://t.co/VMc0Rih0bT Oct 10, 2013

?

Wrong

  • Wrong: Obamacare Foes Using Shutdown Echo South?s Nullifiers http://t.co/js120efIId Not a fair portrayal. Obamacare was badly thought out $$ Oct 12, 2013
  • Dubious: How Yellen Will Shape Fed’s Banking Regulation http://t.co/DHGcgEOqmb Surprise me if much happens; Fed rarely strong regulator $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Uncertain: Recession Looms If Treasury Uses Tools to Prevent a Default http://t.co/FY39fp90eQ Not so sure it would create a recession $$ Oct 09, 2013
  • Wrong: Detroiters Living Amid Ruins Resist Moving as City Reorganizes http://t.co/MuaBzAfVbm Article purely anecdotal, population shrinks $$ Oct 07, 2013

?

Replies, Retweets, & Comments

  • @SilentMachinery I wondered about that also. There may be something there. Oct 12, 2013
  • I need 2brighten my mood. Ah, @AARP has sent me membership cards. Snip, snip, snip. Much better. Old people suck the blood of the young $$ Oct 10, 2013
  • Luck seems to even out for me. I miss gains & losses evenly. I usually don’t spend much time on a stock after I sell it $$ @merrillmatter Oct 10, 2013
  • RT @researchpuzzler: on endowment investing ~ 1) @AlephBlog: http://t.co/UrctMBjW9R ~ 2) @advperspectives: http://t.co/AlhZQgPGnw Oct 09, 2013
  • To @TheUncorrelated : my article on your whitepaper, with my advice to endowment investment managers is here: http://t.co/dQlapwbWqO $$ Oct 08, 2013
  • @rishad Beautiful, but it follows the footsteps of Detroit. One poet said, “Chicago is a pompous Milwaukee.” The skylines don’t compare tho. Oct 08, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

US Government Shutdown

 

  • To Lead Is to Negotiate http://t.co/AJTjPESgiI Elements of an interview w/James Baker describing Reagan the pragmatic dealmaker $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Pig Sales Fly Blind as Data Cut by Shutdown Hampers Firms http://t.co/MHHnn29XXH Guess what? That’s the way most markets operate $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Troops Forage for Food While Golfers Play On in Shutdown http://t.co/Y9HV5IpF3A “the appropriations process has completely failed” $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Obama Rewrites Debt-Limit History http://t.co/BIRNHLH7Pm D&R Congresses have used the borrowing limit as political leverage w/a president $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • US banks fearing default stock up on cash http://t.co/tYXMlQXcIe If money markets freeze, currency will be needed to mediate exchange $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Loose monetary policy needed to counter Washington gridlock: Fed officials http://t.co/AmJqqcMQPQ Fed enables intransigence of congress $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Republicans Are No Longer the Party of Business http://t.co/Vwa5U0pENS Case not proven; as if the Democrats think of any biz but big biz $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Frustrated Republicans Pressure Boehner to End Shutdown http://t.co/m6eSEtXQ5n Likely endgame: Democrats & liberal GOP ally in House $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • US Stocks Rise as Investors See Limited Shutdown Impact http://t.co/nB5WCCcsd4 Will they say the same thing today off neg mkt action? $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Behind the Noise, Entitlement Reform http://t.co/Ed2ug8HoCN This is the elephant in the room; the economic problem behind all the rest $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • More Than 800,000 Federal Workers Are Furloughed http://t.co/GP0XdAxugH Oddly, this helps point out what true priorities of the govt r $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • In Government Shutdown, Few Parallels With Most Recent One http://t.co/RmJ7X3iL0Q Maybe shutdown is an alternative mode of running govt? $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

Companies & Industries

?

  • Twitter Look-Alike Ticker Triggers 684% Advance in Penny Stock http://t.co/hLf2VRP6Hs Big difference btw Twitter $TWTR & Tweeter $TWTRQ $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Mars Repays $4.4B of Berkshire Bonds Tied to Wrigley Deal http://t.co/U5uSgTXBd8 Now Buffett has tough job of redeploying capital $$ #cash Oct 04, 2013
  • Twitter Sends Different Message Than Facebook in Filing http://t.co/azMDDPHVwz 32 pages of risk factors, no classified stock, refreshing $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Blackstone Opens Europe Spigot as Distressed Deals Surge http://t.co/yYQl2dwhzS As EU banks get reasonable, $BX sees opportunity 4 deals $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Alcoa on ?low risk financiers? and parallel metal markets http://t.co/ganjSH2aZg With low interest rates, cheaper to store metal $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Beanie Baby Creator Pleads Guilty to Swiss Bank Tax Dodge http://t.co/V8PrsbKEAO He’ll make up the $$ w/a line of Ty the Jailbird dolls Oct 03, 2013
  • We Are Googling the New York Times to Death http://t.co/OLJ0XsSCRA Use Google 2get free access to the $NYT – broken media revenue model $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • OGX Upheaval Portends Deeper Bond Loss for Pimco http://t.co/m9Do3MALyM BK is tough on creditors in Brazil; long process, low recoveries $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • How BlackBerry blew it:The inside story http://t.co/4K7Kw4Y5bL Long article as $BBRY focuses on core biz, misses threat from new entrants $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Schwarzman Says Selling BlackRock Was ?Heroic? Mistake http://t.co/G8ZKjxNOZ0 Missed out on 79%/yr returns compounded over 19 years! $$ $BLK Oct 01, 2013
  • BlackBerry Rare Breakup Fee Seen Deterring Bids http://t.co/uyo9Ra1zzA Watsa gets a free look, while others effectively locked out $$ $BBRY Oct 01, 2013
  • Why Anglo American Walked Away From Pebble Mine Gold Deposit http://t.co/QwqmjykuD9 Interesting, but only speculations on y $AAUKY left $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Commodities ?Super Cycle? Is Seen Enduring by McKinsey http://t.co/Jnj1XwZNKO Marginal costs keep rising as lower costs ores deplete $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Storage Wars Seize Metals Market http://t.co/WkX0fsOx3o Aiming 2end games that lock up metal in storage as collateral for loans, I think $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Falcone?s Funds Sell Harbinger Group Shares to Leucadia http://t.co/2l8dSyEPKP $HRG funds sell shares 2 $LUK @ a 20% discount 2 mkt price $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Of course $LUK has 2 hold onto the shares 4 a while, but still that’s a pretty stiff price 2 pay 4 liquidity $$ $HRG Oct 01, 2013

?

Finance, Pensions, Etc.

?

  • More Than 5,000 Stockbrokers From Expelled Firms Still Selling Securities http://t.co/E5lczvdLJP Don’t buy what someone wants 2 sell 2u $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • How to Look Under a Hedge Fund’s Hood http://t.co/oKy6ZQWo1q There’s more 2ask than this, but these 7 questions r a good start $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Hedge Funds Used Obscure Bond Bet to Win in GM Bankruptcy http://t.co/SaLKh7sg9Q They did hard work with their brains, & won $$ #distressed Oct 04, 2013
  • 8 Incredible Shares On StockTwits About Hedge Fund Market Wizard Ray Dalio http://t.co/tjQ9ecAF1A I added two more resources $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Time to Ditch the Yale Endowment Model?http://t.co/aYWfleXE7R Similar to an article I wrote 4 years ago http://t.co/2ox3Zzdaac $$ @M_C_Klein Oct 04, 2013
  • S&P 500 Pension Status Continues to Improve in September http://t.co/tyL1fqCivB Rising prices for risky assets & more contributions help $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Peak-population investing http://t.co/0I5s49iBBC Demographics affect inflation – goods inflation w/many young asset inflation w/many old $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • 10 Terms Investment Pros Use to Raise Money @Reformedbroker http://t.co/cHivwK8uvh Points @ 10 buzzwords w/fuzzy meanings & little truth $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Option-Selling Is Not Income http://t.co/zdiP91nKsK Well written,& it needs 2b said. Option “income” vs capital losses & opportunity costs $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Eric Schneiderman, Wall Street Time-Machine Sheriff http://t.co/trSBh80ObO Dig deep enough in2 any multiparty trnsctn & u will find dirt $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • In multiparty transactions, u have 2b careful. Who has more info than u? How r incentives aligned? Y r u lucky one invited 2play w/them? $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Student-Loan Straitjacket http://t.co/1keTvDykpV They should look at income-based repayment plans; in many cases they would pay far less $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Fab Tourre Wants Another Chance to Explain http://t.co/X4H8b70hVi Did Tourre withhold mind-chging information deal players were entitled2 $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Inter-dealer brokers? inside information @FelixSalmon http://t.co/cCcVMM3foF What is fraud vs making/arbing a mkt? http://t.co/6aKN6t0Abw $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Top 20 Films about Finance: From Crisis to Con Men http://t.co/nDv0Rz4P4P I added on the film “The Billion Dollar Bubble” Equity Funding $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Gibraltar Seen as Europe-Beater for Finance Professionals http://t.co/YzHgQRv82A Perhaps more money per hectare than any other place $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Commodity Trader Didn’t Really Believe in Market Prices http://t.co/qVEC4lQB8u Citi mismarked illiquid exchange-traded ethanol contracts $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • This Sociological Theory Explains Why Wall Street Is Rigged 4 Crisis http://t.co/ff6NWs1GOO Technological efficient w/odd feedback loops $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Overwhelming Demand 4 Obamacare Shows Potential Success http://t.co/4i3Kb6P8SN Success?? Show you what happened 2me http://t.co/vlrqUxFXzr Oct 04, 2013
  • How ObamaCare Wrecks the Work Ethic http://t.co/3U2z8PKPwR Saw this a month ago, subsidies raise marginal tax rates 4 lower middle class $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • The Republicans Fighting Obamacare Aren?t Crazy http://t.co/A61poB4ArU PPACA *can* b repealed, but would take a GOP swing in 2016 2do it $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Why must the American people suffer when even so many Democrats don’t want Obamacare? http://t.co/uJfncEetS7 Congress exempts itself $$ Sep 28, 2013

 

Civil Liberties in Cyberspace

 

  • NSA chief admits misleading numbers, adds to Obama administration blunders http://t.co/wsS2qrIW74 Politicians overstate metadata value $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • NSA Involvement in NIST Encryption Standards Could Make Companies Less Competitive http://t.co/RzRVSYVtiv Does NSA demand backdoors? $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • On NSA’s encryption defeating efforts: Trust no 1 http://t.co/afq1Fjngzv Big companies r in cahoots w/NSA, can’t b trusted, r lying 2us $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • NSA Gathers Data on Social Connections of U.S. Citizens http://t.co/oVIYLWdHFi The NSA endangers our civil liberties; we need to end it $$ Sep 30, 2013

 

Monetary Policy

?

  • Will Unconventional Monetary Policy Be the New Normal? http://t.co/nN00ta4UIM Fed is hopeless; they don’t get they r inflating assets $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Aluminum Prices: Blame It on the Fed http://t.co/kgjOTbNeqd Low interest rates lead to loans collateralized by aluminum $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Don?t Cry for Me, Ben Bernanke http://t.co/unN01G8N8K Developing Countries should get ready for the eventual Fed tightening, if they can $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

Banking

 

  • The Bailout That Never Came http://t.co/cROhzGqjYB Bailout for homeowners was half-hearted at best; 4 banks it was a warm friendly hug $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Banks abandon mortgage preapprovals http://t.co/ro6NE8T5Yb Makes the purchases of homes more complex b/c likelihood of financing down $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Are Banks Forward-Looking in Their Loan Loss Provisioning? http://t.co/1V6ytChwB2 I would be more inclined to think it is a “cookie jar” $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • The JP Morgan apologists of CNBC http://t.co/HJgOH3NGvT Media often panders 2 power or they lose access to the powerful people $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Duke to NYU Missteps Abroad Lead Colleges to Reassess Expansion http://t.co/1ZoHGD2CeP Have 2 make sure of a good cultural fit first $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Freak Grape-Razing Hail Crushes Burgundy Winemakers? Dreams http://t.co/rxSiKaRpvl 2years of hailstorms destroy the prospects of vintners $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Migrant Ship Sinks Off Italian Island, Killing Dozens http://t.co/KCYgVt0Bx8 Europe is Elysium 4 these migrants; US is the same 4 others $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • NFL Free-Agent Lawyer to Unlock $16B in NCAA Athletes http://t.co/nfitchpsSt Free student labor may disappear; may hit big programs hard $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Moon walker demo lets wannabe astronauts feel 0.17G http://t.co/BsenBrl8ck Cool. Could b used 4physical therapy after severe leg injuries $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Educators in the art of life must have chance of their own http://t.co/HxiCZUOyP3 Certain college depts survive on low paid p/t academics $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Worried About Cancer? Get Married http://t.co/PQFp8Q67SD A man & a woman who get & stay married tend to take care of each other $$ #healthy Oct 01, 2013
  • Gangnam-Style Nip and Tuck Draws Tourists to Seoul?s Beauty Belt http://t.co/2nC182RWtV Plastic surgery becomes a tourist draw 2 Seoul $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Small town, big impact: Supreme Court case could define religion’s role in public http://t.co/oD09WqaOaT Govt Ceremonial deism may end $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Who Do You Believe: The White House and Wall Street ? or the American People? http://t.co/ZIRZDU1i5p Economic Confidence continues 2drop $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Bankrupt Stockton Plan Favors Retirees Over Creditors http://t.co/yZ80M5s5lz Will b difficult 2get thru BK city, unless emplyee benes cut $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • ‘Strings Attached’ Co-Author Offers Solutions for Education http://t.co/BMF9zPqMU6 I learned the most from teachers that were hard on me $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Panel Finds Planes Can Handle Use of Electronic Devices http://t.co/hCnZNFfR98 At last, the bad science crumbles & freedom increases $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • The most predictable economic crisis? http://t.co/XAqVj9QZ9S Implicitly, entitlement reform lies behind almost all our problems in DC $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Why I Am Cancelling My Documentary on Hillary Clinton http://t.co/oKxLjUwRDZ No openness from the Clintons dooms a documentary from CNN $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

 

  • 2 all who follow me on Twitter, my account was hacked, & someone sent out a bunch of spam tweets & DMs that I would never send. My apologies Oct 01, 2013

 

  • @kltblom when the amount of range for premium variation is only three, it is not a workable system. Anti-selection will occur. Oct 05, 2013
  • @M_C_Klein I started out as an Asset-Liability Management actuary, and I have traded in illiquid securities, makes me think differently Oct 05, 2013
  • @kltblom Removed deduction for employer-paid healthcare. Encouraged HSAs, and try to move to predominantly first-party payer model Oct 05, 2013
  • @TheUncorrelated I willprobably write an article on this next week. Will sound like the one I cited b4 & like: http://t.co/Y8CA0LX9Qi Oct 05, 2013
  • @kltblom I’m an actuary; since the PPACA was proposed, the health actuaries I have talked with have said tht PPACA won’t work Oct 04, 2013
  • ‘ @JonathanWeil Say run rate EBITDA for 2013 is $50M. If Market Cap of $TWTR is $12B, that is an astounding EV/EBITDA of 240 $$ #nosebleed Oct 04, 2013
  • @_DM0_ I can confirm that, they have taken down the slides. Pity, quickest way to absorb the material Oct 04, 2013
  • @Kitsune808 It is not infrequent that @BloombergNews Headlines are misleading, or quirky. They march to the beat of a different drummer Oct 04, 2013
  • @PlanMaestro I know, but given attention to the video, I thought I would show the PDF that better fleshes out his position. and the slides Oct 04, 2013
  • Thanks @onlineawards @TightTalk @valuetakes for being top new followers in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 04, 2013
  • “”Spain?s public debt in 2014 is expected to be the equivalent of 98.9 percent of total economic?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/HPR50Rjijp $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • “Two more: 9) And for those that want to read Ray Dalio’s economic template book, it is free here:” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/QLWdRs1odG $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • @ToddSullivan A computer could do it anywhere by minimizing the distance of internal boundaries subject to equal popoulations. Not hard. Oct 04, 2013
  • @ToddSullivan We need structural reform 2 end that given gerrymandered districts. A lot of people want change, but districts not competitive Oct 04, 2013
  • @kltblom If PPACA were mere risk pooling, I might agree. It is a messy ugly law that ignores basic actuarial principles & will not work well Oct 04, 2013
  • @volatilitysmile They give us different pieces of the puzzle (insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 04, 2013
  • #FollowFriday Thanks @ReformedBroker @pelias01 @researchpuzzler for being top influencers in my community this week 🙂 Oct 04, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker The Baby Boomers gray, and money socked away, let finance guys play, make dough every day. Thus so many wealthy $$ managers. Oct 04, 2013
  • Thanks @ToddSullivan @ReformedBroker for being top engaged members in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 03, 2013
  • Thanks @TightTalk @BabyFreshNuggz @X9T_Trading for being top new followers in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 01, 2013
  • Thanks @moneyscience @TopInvestBlogs for being top engaged members in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Sep 30, 2013
  • @RexHuppke You are a real man, unlike many today. You may be stupid, but at least you are taking action, rather than compromising w/losers Sep 28, 2013
Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 22

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 22

Posted on by David Merkel

These articles appeared between May 2012 and July 2012:

On Distribution Formulas

Most formulas for distributing income from an endowment or a a savings/investment fund are too liberal.? If you want the purchasing power to last, distribute less.

Correlating Risky Assets

How do correlations come into existence with risky assets.? This piece explains.

Simple Stock Valuation

An exploration of Eddy Elfenbein’s simple stock valuation model.

Don?t Become the Market

When any firm becomes the dominant provider of a good or service, it should ask whether it has mispriced.? A veiled critique of JPM’s whale trade in the credit markets.

In Defense of Nothing

Manufacturing is overrated.? We’ve got enough things, now we need services to make our lives richer.

Little Things are Important

When leverage is high, little things failing can lead to large and bad results.

High Profits

Labor is not scarce, so profit margins are high.? Will that last forever?? No, but it might be a while.

23,401 Auctions

391 Auctions

A pair of pieces suggesting that the markets could be better off if we held auctions once a second, or once a minute.

The Rules, Part XXXII

Dynamic hedging only has the potential of working on deep markets.

Arbitrage pricing can reveal proper prices in smaller less liquid markets if there are larger, more liquid markets to compare against.? The process cannot work in reverse, except by accident

The Rules, Part XXXIII

When politicians don?t have answers, they blame speculators, financiers (Wall Street), or foreigners.? They do anything to take the spotlight off their culpability or ineptitude.

Aim for the Middle

Very basic advice that tells you that the best returns come from taking moderate risk.

Works if Small, Fails if Large

Another bogus theory of asset allocation that works today, because markets favor it, and not enough people are using it.

Strong Hands

On the value of long-term investors holding stocks that you hold.

Logical Links

If there are a lot of links in a chain of reasoning, it is likely to be wrong.

Modified Glass-Steagall

I suggest a number of reforms that would be more effective than reinstating Glass-Steagall.

Don?t Blame Money Market Funds

On the hypocrisy of the SEC and the banking regulators

Do Insurance Stocks Do Better than Average Over the Long-Run?

The answer is probably, but not certainly.? Really, it is a mess.

On Life Insurance and Life Reinsurance

Explains why I like the life reinsurance oligopoly

On Bond Ladders

The most robust strategy for interest rates; always second-best, and never the worst.

On Internal Indexes, like LIBOR

An Analysis of Three-Month LIBOR 2005-2008

On Floating Rates

In most scandals, not enough attention is paid to those who should have been questioning the situation and did not.? There were parties angling for higher LIBOR and lower LIBOR.? Anytime you borrow or lend using an index, you assent to the method of the index.? What, you didn’t analyze it?

The Failure of Government-Provided Prosperity

The government has almost no control over prosperity, and yet it tries to take credit for it, and ends up ruining prosperity through deficits and loose monetary policy.

Grow Embedded Value

The main idea in investing is finding investments that will compound your money at an above average rate, with a margin of safety.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part I

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part II

The beginning of my eight-part series on mortgage bonds.? I did it well for three years.

Packages! Packages!

A tale of my younger investing days, when I would mail companies for data.

Missing Earnings Estimates

Why occasional earnings misses are desirable.

Forget Your Cost Basis

All good investment decision-making is forward looking.? Whether you are buying or selling, it doesn?t matter where prices have been in the past.

Concentrated Interest

This piece generated a lot of heat, but I still stand behind it.? The concentrated interest of a profit motive is a good thing, and all of the government services do not affect what you have done at all.? The entrepreneur is a hero, whether in business, government, or elsewhere.

Advice to Two Readers

Advice to Two Readers

Posted on by David Merkel

I get a lot of requests for advice.? Here are two of them.

David,

?I really appreciate you discussing your trading/haggling strategies in the Education of a Corporate Bond Manager. ?It’s definitely given me new ideas and helped me get better pricing in my purchases the last couple of years. ?I still refer to them every few months or so.

I have a question about changing jobs in the fixed income industry – I work in a treasury division, managing my company’s cash and short-term investments. ?I’ve done well, but we use yield-based benchmarks, as part of the portfolio is used to immunize short term liabilities. ?When I interview with asset management shops, they want previous total return portfolio management experience. ? ?

Do you know any particular types of firms or sub-industries that use yield-based benchmarks? ?Does managing to a yield benchmark stunt my learning growth compared to a total return mandate?

 

Yield-based benchmarks exist when:

  • The liability structure being invested against is short (We could need this cash at any moment for business use!)
  • The liability structure is long, but well-defined, such as a bank or insurer that wants predictable income versus their liabilities, and so the game becomes maximize spread net of default costs, subject to matching asset and liability durations (and maybe partial durations if the liability stream is long).

You are doing the first of these.? Truth, what you are doing could be measured on a total return basis, but it wouldn?t make a lot of difference.

The second one applies to banks and insurers, and can be done on either basis as well.? The difficulty comes with trying to calculate the total return of the liabilities. ??If that it too hard to do, they create a bond benchmark that they think represents when they think the liabilities may pay out.? If the liabilities possess some degree of optionality, like that of residential mortgage prepayment, the benchmark could include bond options (long or short).

The yield on the bond benchmark is easy to calculate, as is the total return.?? Thus relative performance can be calculated either way.? I had to do this for an insurance client once who insisted that our performance was poor when we had returned more than 0.70% year more than single-A corporate, which was quite good.

Thus, one place you could try working is for is an insurer, bank, or other financial intermediary.? But what of those that manage funds for retail.? What then?

Aside from unconstrained funds, even a mutual fund has a liability to invest against ? the expectations of the client.? In that sense, most mutual fund managers aren?t doing full total return either ? they have to stay within a certain range for interest rate sensitivity. They also could be evaluated on the basis of yield realized versus that of a generic portfolio meeting their interest rate sensitivity targets.? More commonly, they would be ranked against their competitors on a total return basis.

In closing, it you don?t want to manage money for a bank or insurer, you?ll have to try to wedge your way into work in a total return environment ? taking a junior level position, and showing competence.? Believe me, most firms would love to promote from inside, if possible.

Sincerely,

David

Dear Mr. David Merkel,

I really appreciate your hard work you are putting in your site and I am an avid reader of it. I would like to seek your advice regarding a decision I am facing. My goal is become a value investor and establish my own asset management firm to manage my own money and other people’s money. Right now, I have the opportunity to pursue partnership in my family business and be able to run it along with my father. I am 23 years old, and I am a freshman student at the _+_+_+_+_.? If I am to be a partner in my family business, I have to drop out from the university and travel to +_+_+_+_+_+_+_, where the business is. I am still a freshman student because when I was 19 years old, I dropped out to establish my own business in the same industry as my family in +_+_+_+_+_. I had an experience running a business and I had the opportunity to sell my business after two years of operation to my cousins, and, thankfully, it was a profitable venture.

My family business is somehow facing sales shrinkage and cash flow problem due to low capital (my family made terrible mistakes in managing it) and economic downturn. They are specialty contractors and manufacturers of fenestration products (windows, doors, kitchens, curtain walls, and rolling shutters). If I am to work with them, I can be able to help them in reorganizing the company. It might be risky for me, but if everything worked out well enough, I will have earnings that I believe is better than being an employee.

I am facing a decision that I need to make. You might not be able to advice me, but whatever advice you give me, I appreciate it. If my goal is to manage my own money and other people’s money by establishing my own asset management firm, is it helpful to have a university degree or the experience of having ran a business? Shall I drop out and pursue my family business opportunity? If I am to continue studying, I will incur student loan debt which I won’t prefer. But, alas, I will do it if it need be to accomplish my goal. Thank you a lot.

You have my sympathies on two fronts:

1) Choosing between family obligations and personal goals is never easy.? I have had to face that in deciding what jobs I could take while raising my family.? I was recruited for a managing director position in an investment bank in the mid-90s, but passed it up because I could not peel away that much time from my family and church.? It took a lot of time for me to become an institutional investor as a result.? I became an investment actuary at the age of 31, started working in an investment department at age 37, started work at a hedge fund at age 42, and started my own firm at age 49.? By 49, I had more than enough assets to care for my family if my business failed, at least to put the kids through college.?? After that, I could be stretched.

2) Good operational businessmen can be very good investors.? There are synergies between the ability to operate a business, and the ability to make good investment decisions.? Don?t think that building another business is a waste of your time.? It will sharpen you in ways that most institutional investors never grasp.? I benefited a great deal from building profitable business within insurance companies, and it sharpened my knowledge on how to invest.

Now, all that said, if you take time out to rebuild your family?s business, don?t neglect your education.? Read good books on value investing, and study those who have been great.? I?m not saying that college is useless, but I am saying that much of the knowledge that academics teach on economics is deficient.? In some ways, it is better to be a clever businessman than an academically trained man.? The latter will not gain much insight into how to invest.? The businessman has a better chance.

Perhaps a good compromise would be to study for the CFA credential in your spare time.? I did that.? Along with that, invest some of your money in ideas that you think are worthy.? I did that from 1992-2003, before I began investing in stocks professionally, and I did very well.

You need to find out whether you have significant insights versus the rest of the markets.? Academic learning will not help that.? Operational business experience *might* help that.

Don?t give up your goal of managing your own value investing firm, but realize that there are many paths to getting there, and the most important thing is trying to develop insight into the markets that others don?t have.? Typically, academic study does not develop that.

I hope things work out for you.? Let me know how you do.

Sincerely,

David

Book Review: Pound Foolish

Book Review: Pound Foolish

Posted on by David Merkel

51MWEeSjpfL

To my readers: if you like this review, please vote it up here at Amazon.? Thanks a lot.

Personal finance has issues.? This is because there are many things that are true on average that will not always prove true in the short run.? Here are some examples:

  • Those that save more and spend less for personal needs will usually do better in the long run than those that spend a higher proportion of their income.
  • Those that take moderate risks in investing tend to beat both those that take low risks, and those that take high risks.? But over short periods of time, who can tell?
  • Over the long run “buy and hold” tends to work.? In the short run, who can tell?
  • Good investing is boring.? It is not entertaining.? An average person looking at the portfolio that I own for my clients would only recognize 10 of the 36 companies that I hold.? The best stocks are those of neglected companies that do their boring business and make money quietly.
  • In general, it is wise to have as little debt as possible.? When you do have debt, pay it off rapidly, or make sure that the debt is non-recourse (the asset purchased collateralizes the loan in full.
  • In general, it is honorable to pay your debts in full.? Occasionally, some life event happens that makes it impossible.? That is what the bankruptcy code is for.? When bad providence is overwhelming, take the hit, declare bankruptcy, and battle back from there.? In the Bible, debt-slavery was limited to seven years — why should the loan sharks get more of your life than that?
  • Financial education, as well as education in general, is no panacea.? As one of my brighter friends at RealMoney, Howard Simons,? used to say (something like), “On Wall Street, to those that are expert, we give them super-advanced tools that they can use to destroy themselves.”? There is almost never a level playing field in investing, unless you do all of the work yourself.
  • Risk control is the key to investing, and women do better at that than most men.? I liken it to chefs.? Most of the best chefs are men, but women beat men on average in cooking.? (An aside: cooking is my hobby.? My wife likes my cooking.)
  • There is no way to get rich quick.? Ignore seminars that tell you that it is possible, like “Rich Dad.”
  • Peter Lynch popularized “buy what you know,” but he was far brighter than that and a real detail person.? Many people moved to residential real estate post-2002, but did not realize that if prices get high relative to rents, that prices can fall.? They bought what they thought they knew, and lost.
  • After the market declines of 2000-2003 and 2008-2009, many people swore off the stock market at the wrong time.? The uneducated buy and sell in response to fear and greed.? Buy and hold is better than that, always, and that is one reason to employ a professional that does not get shaken by market moves, good or bad.? (It took 5-10 years to develop ice-water in my veins.)
  • It is always good to be skeptical of those that talk to you about finance, even me.? Particularly be skeptical of those that will buy you a nice meal with the aim of getting your business.? There are many strategies to get you to say “yes.”? If you dare, read marketing books, they will help you develop sales resistance.
  • Defined benefit pension plans are better for workers than defined contribution plans like the 401(k), but they cost a lot, lot, lot more.? That’s why they don’t exist today.
  • Most people, if left to themselves, will not plan for the future.? That is why there are commissioned salesmen (brokers/insurance) to sell them products inferior to what they would get if they planned for themselves.

That took more words than I expected. Before I go on, I want to say that I liked that book a lot with some reservations.

Let me now go to the book, and tell you what I liked and what I did not.

What I Liked

  • The book is honest, it flags all of the problems in personal finance.? Some of those problems are unavoidable, because returns in the market are lumpy, as opposed to the smooth projections of the financial planner.
  • It explains why defined benefit plans are better for average people, because they are not investors, they are budgeters at best, and need to receive a steady income in retirement.
  • She explains the ways that salesmen try to make you buy what you shouldn’t.
  • She understands that most investment advice is shallow, and wrong.
  • Expense and debt control aren’t everything.? That said, they are good things.
  • She recognized that women are better risk managers than men.? (Men are too certain of themselves; I have rules for myself that tie my hands so that I do not act on fear or greed.)
  • She gets that real estate is an expense, and not an investment.
  • Financial celebrities are often wrong.
  • She understands that the financial industry has many tendrils into academia & politics, to spread a message favorable to itself.

What I Did Not Like

  • It may be that most people in financial trouble have had notable accidents happen to them, but that does not invalidate the idea that being careful with your spending and sparing on debt are wise ideas.? Aside from that, people need to insure themselves properly, and be prepared for layoffs — have transferable skills that can work in multiple industries; be a continual learner.? Also, be aware of the finances of your company.? If you think it is in trouble, look for work before you are laid off.
  • She doesn’t get how expensive it would be to create defined benefit plans in place of defined contribution plans.? The costs are what led corporations to terminate the plans.
  • She doesn’t get that there are many people who will not take prudent actions for the future.? That is what commissioned salesmen are for.? They get the imprudent to do something good for them selves that they would not ordinarily do.
  • Talking about money is not enough.? With most people it is a mere sharing of ignorance, and not much better than what you get from other sources.? You *can* get educated about money, but it takes time, effort, and diligence.? Who is willing to do that?

Summary

She is long on critique, and short on real ideas to improve the situation.? The critique will help you know what to avoid.? But when you are done with this book, you will have no positive plan for what you should do.? If you want to, you can buy it here: Pound Foolish: Exposing the Dark Side of the Personal Finance Industry.

Full disclosure: I borrowed the book from my local library.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Europe

?

  • Risk of Bank Failures Rising in Europe, E.C.B. Warns?stks.co/iXnFdgzCpNK1ctKk7ijN/w&pagewanted=all&pagewanted=print Bad scene $$
  • New BoE chief Carney will devalue sterling, Pimco warns?stks.co/sEin?It’s useless but everyone has 2try2 “beggar thy neighbor” $$
  • The French Economic Maginot Line: A Very Weak Strongpoint?stks.co/cVlX French economy weakening; 2 big 4 Germany 2 rescue $$
  • Greek Economy Optimism Seen in Yield-Curve Switch?stks.co/aVsv?Perhaps they r doing better, but what of France & Germany? $$
  • Hungary Cuts Policy Rate to Record Lowstks.co/sENf?Another nation sucked into the march to global ZIRP; what will break first? $$

?

Asia

?

  • Asia’s Huge Debt Growth Problem: Remember 1997??stks.co/sEsy?Graph on this page is worth a look; could b another Asia crisis $$
  • Aging Chinese Face a Bleak Picturestks.co/cWG6?This should b no surprise; it is the logical outcome of the 1 child policy $$
  • China Failure to Grow With $1T Is Warning to Li: Economy?stks.co/jXddNegative Marginal productivity of capital in China $$?#FTL
  • China’s Xi Comes Calling on Americasstks.co/rEua?Interesting to see the Chinese need 4 products in the Western Hemisphere $$
  • China Failure to Grow With $1T Is Warning 2 Li: Economy?stks.co/dVzl?10 years from now, they’ll wonder y we worried about China $$
  • China-Based Cyber Attacks Rise at Meteoric Pace?stks.co/sEco?This is not news. Practice safe computing, & you will be safe. $$
  • Japanese Housewives Cooling on Aussie Uridashi?stks.co/sEcn?The strong yen is gone,& small investors realize there is no gain $$
  • Tokyo Shares Down Sharplystks.co/bW4G?Japanese stocks get hit, why should anyone be surprised? BOJ engaged in voodoo economics $$
  • Japan?s Bond Market Wants BOJ to Purchase More Short-Term?stks.co/gXRpTraders off-balance as BOJ stops giving them easy profit $$
  • China’s Shuanghui to Buy Smithfield Foods?stks.co/pEdZ?A wise addition to the strategic pork reserve; let the pigs flow west! $$
  • Japan plays down concerns bond price spike could hurt recovery?stks.co/fXGZKuroda thinks 3% higher interest rates won’t hurt?! $$
  • Fears over US stimulus highlight Japan?s fragility?stks.co/aVlz?Japan is reaching the limits of what monetary policy can do $$

 

Rest of the World

  • Sudan Threatens to Close Pipelinestks.co/cVvE?Two corrupt regimes arguing over oil – a lose/lose situation $$
  • Bank of Israel Lowers Rate Again After Surprise Mid-May Cut?stks.co/eVoS?Many fringe economies import low rates 2 aid exporters $$
  • Despite Detractors, Don’t Buy Talk of Dollar’s Demise?stks.co/cVeU?The US is in good shape compared to Japan, Eurozone & China $$
  • Fringe economies are forced to absorb loose monetary policy, or let exports suffer while hot money tries to get yield in their countries $$

 

Central Banking

?

  • Simon Johnson: Choosing the Next Head of the Federal Reservestks.co/bWEQ?No doubt that Dick Fisher would b a lot better $$
  • Is the Fed Right to Calibrate Asset Purchases to Economic Data?stks.co/fXYR?Coarse data doesn’t allow 4 fine policy precision $$
  • US Banks Looking Solid As Bernanke Keeps The Juice Flowing, But Perils Of Financial Crisis Loom?stks.co/pEdg?Low rates will end $$
  • Fed?s 100-Year Roots Grew From Virginia Congressman?stks.co/sEWJ?Puff piece of secular hagiography fawning over Carter Glass $$
  • Kuroda Struggles W/Communication as Japan Rates Rise?stks.co/eVkQ?Most central bankers don’t know forces w/which they r toying $$
  • Also, strong communication skills at central banks r a weakness, not a strength; better 2 move back to the pre-87 era, operate in shadows $$
  • The more communication a central bank puts out, the more markets become “tightly coupled” w/the CB, thus limiting the effects of policy $$
  • Stephen Poloz: Top 10 headaches BoC chief faces right off the bat?stks.co/qEKO2 much debt amid a mortgage bubble germinates $$

 

Market Impact

 

  • NYC Pension Chief Seeks $500,000 Managers to Cut Out Wall Street stks.co/eWPZ?Insourcing looks easy; u need bright mgmt 2do it $$
  • Contrarian Investing in Quality Franchises?stks.co/dWEz?It is not enough 2b contrarian, u have 2b right $$?$STUDY
  • James DeMasi on Overcoming Adversity to Start and Grow a Value Investment Management Firm?stks.co/eWPVIntelligent stuff $$?$STUDY
  • Pension-Fund Swings Make Case for Cutting Risk?stks.co/tEuZ?Much as I like ALM, probably the wrong time 2 trade stocks 4 bonds $$
  • Junk Bonds Having A Bad Week (Down 0.96%) Amid Broader Pullbackstks.co/bWEV?Yet this is small & we need it 2 persist 4 weeks $$
  • Evaluating 3 Bullish Argumentsstks.co/dW9s?PR better than logic, but he is right that the market is overvalued $$
  • Sallie Krawcheck: Big Banks Still Don?t Have Enough Capital?stks.co/rEou?No 1 knows how large the ultimate catastrophe could b $$
  • Morgan Stanley to Downsize Fixed Income?stks.co/dVzj?I think this is a mistake. Wall Street exists 2 sell debt$MS?$$
  • Record Cash Sent to Balanced Fundsstks.co/eVv4?Hail the humble balanced fund, which has the virtue of keeping panic away 4most $$
  • SEC Refocuses on Accounting Fraud stks.co/gXI1?With Crisis-Related Enforcement Ebbing, SEC Is Turning Back to Main Street $$
  • A hedge fund for u & me? Best move is 2 pass?stks.co/eVoW?Sage advice from @ritholtz?| survivor & reporting bias & fees 2 high $$
  • Goldman Sachs Buyback Orders Reach Highest Level of Year?stks.co/bVkE?Are buybacks part of the voting or weighing machine *now* $$
  • Margin Debt Hits a Record, Showing Confidence?stks.co/fX96?Confidence or froth, amid a market influenced by aggressive $$ policy?
  • Beware of ‘Bargain’ Stocks?stks.co/hXKKI disagree for now; look4 strong companies in industries under stress that will survive $$
  • Defaulted Manhattan Complex Rewards Patient $$?stks.co/iXCC?Sadly, equity & mezzanine were wiped out, patience pays only4 snr debt

 

Insurance

 

  • MetLife cuts 2,500 advisers seen lacking chance of success?stks.co/dWF0?Retail chief says productivity ‘way up;’ costs way down $$
  • Regarding the prior tweet, I have wondered 4 ~25 years when something like that would happen; has long been needed @ most life insurers $$
  • $PRU?Takes On?$AFL?in Benefits After Health Law?stks.co/fXpO?Much easier2 “enter” a market than create a sales force $$ FD: +?$AFL
  • $ENH?CEO steps down, replacement named?stks.co/iXML?Sudden. Former CEO of?$AXS?picked, owns ~1.5%, will own ~4% as comp; FD: +$ENH
  • The former CEO of?$AXS?was pushed out by his board; he built Axis, but was a bit of a prima donna. What will he do to $ENH?? | FD: +?$ENH?$$
  • One more note: the competent former CFO of?$PRE?is now CEO of?$AXS?, having been passed over for the CEO job @?$PRE?$$?#musicalchairs

 

US Politics

 

  • Pelosi: ?We have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it.? The more we find out, the less sense it makes.stks.co/pF0S
  • GOP senators want IG probe of Sebelius’ ‘Obamacare’ fundraising?stks.co/dWA5Obama administration is more corrupt than Nixon $$
  • Bible Class in Texas Schools Faulted as Unconstitutional?stks.co/iXnP?Look in the comments 4 bigoted ideas that aren’t American $$
  • Obamacare Competition Has Roots in Economist?s Passion?stks.co/dW9n?If you believe in neoclassical economics u r deluded $$?#loser
  • Regulators Want Better Financial Datastks.co/gXjV?Well, duh, but there are costs involved & the government does not bear those $$
  • When Chinese Walls Come Crumbling Down?stks.co/rEot?There r still conflicts of interest on Wall Street. Be aware & defensive $$
  • Deposits Guaranteed Up to $250,000?Maybe?stks.co/pEdo?Congress transfers insured deposit risks to the taxpayers & depositors $$
  • Liberty Reserve Joe Bogus Account Said to Reflect Evasion?stks.co/jXKv?Money laundering goes high-tech; Feds take action $$
  • Obama Accepting Sequestration as Deficit Shrinks?stks.co/gXIj?Whaddaya know? A policy no one liked actually isn’t that bad $$
  • Health Law Critics Seek to Gut It by Attacking Exchanges?stks.co/rEO6 Exchanges will only attract sick, will b high costs4all $$
  • The US Federal Government Spending: a Huge Fiscal Drag http;//stks.co/iXMS Cutting less useful spending it may help, not harm $$
  • Hollywood Loses Blockbusters as ?Iron Man? Finds Subsidy?stks.co/gXIX?Like building stadiums, except u have to keep doing it $$
  • Obama Nominates 2 Senate Aides for S.E.C. Posts?stks.co/fX8w?A team 2 assure continued incompetence & weak enforcement $$
  • Banks’ Lobbyists Help in Drafting Financial Bills?stks.co/pEJH?Basic goals: min capital reqs, max flexibility, weaken regs $$

 

Other

 

  • Cord Cutters Lop Off Internet Service More Than TV?stks.co/hXwv?You can cut your costs, but what does that do to your life? $$
  • Online Course Providers Reach Out2 Wary Professors?stks.co/jXde?Better to ask the question, “Where is new revenue coming from?” $$
  • Victor Davis Hanson: Why Some Wars Are So Savage?stks.co/bW4K?Evenly matched wars that take a long time lead to barbarism $$
  • Mary Meeker is Back With Her 2013 Internet Trends Report Slidesstks.co/pEfP?A lot of interesting information $$ Things change
  • European Sunscreen Roadblock on U.S. Beaches?stks.co/tENx?If you sunburn like me, maybe European sunscreens will help u $$
  • Dear Grads, Don’t ‘Do What You Love’ stks.co/hXVe?The solution is 2love what u do; working 4 $$ helps other priorities in life
  • Death Jolts Texas Investorsstks.co/aVsN?Since his body was found 2 weeks ago, investors say they lent him millions of $$?#badodor
  • Common Core Education Is Uncommonly Inadequate?stks.co/sENHNational curriculum standards tend 2b dumbed-down; local better $$
  • Science Can?t Pin Powerful Tornadoes on Global Climate Change?stks.co/eVoUA rare fair article on climate @ Bloomberg. Who knew $$
  • Noahpinion: Bets do not (necessarily) reveal beliefs?stks.co/dVdu?In which Noah Smith arbs Brad Delong & Patrick Chovanec $$?#FTW
  • Immunology Gets Turned On Its Headstks.co/jX4P?Discovery may aid vaccine design&begins2explain y gene therapy runs in2 trouble $$
  • Is This Google X’s Plan to Wire the World??stks.co/hXKJ?Solar powered balloons dot the skies, could last 5 years & upgrade $$

 

Companies

 

  • Buffett’s Safe Bet on Vegas?stks.co/gXjUThe Maestro does it again, takes a marginally profitable company, & refinances it $$
  • Goldman Upgrades Defense Contractors?stks.co/gXjT?My but how contrarian; won’t there b less cash flowing to defense companies? $$
  • Berkshire Hathaway Unit to Buy NV Energy for $5.6B?stks.co/dVzk?Another wise move by Buffett; utility earnings make $$ vs funding
  • Alcoa Cut to Junk by Moody?s as Aluminum Price Declines?stks.co/pEkEAnother sign of economic weakness, but Alcoa will survive $$
  • Payday Lenders Evading Rules Pivot to Installment Loans?stks.co/eW4q?I like people to have choice, but not 1 that leads2a trap $$
  • Empire State Building IPO Plan Is Approved?stks.co/fXUM?”The second-largest IPO for a U.S. real-estate investment trust” ever $$
  • BHP Halts Coal Expansion?stks.co/dVthDownturn in the global economy & thus steel makes demand fall for metallurgical coal $$?$BHP
  • Newsweek for Sale: IAC Seeks Buyersstks.co/jXKo?The internet changes everything; say goodbye to a dinosaur $$
  • Utilities Weigh Entering Rooftop-Solar Business?stks.co/sEWA?Sounds dumb; it’s a very different biz in almost every way $$?#FTL
  • Samsung, Sony Court Indians as Subsidies Fund Factories?stks.co/gXIgIndia gives 25% subsidy4capital costs2setup tech plants. $$

 

Energy

 

  • As US Oil Booms, an Unlikely Word Rises: Depletion?stks.co/dVl5?Wells created by fracking have shorter production profiles $$
  • U.S. Oil Boom Divides OPECstks.co/pEUQ?Those most dependent on oil revenues want others in OPEC 2 cut, so that they can cheat $$

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

  • I just left a comment in “Energy stocks down, look to end week higher – Energy Stocks – MarketWatch”on.mktw.net/18DiBrm
  • “I have read both. Buffett made mistakes that cost him, but never such that he could not bounce back?” ? D_Merkeldisq.us/8da393?$$
  • Commented on StockTwits: Old tweet deleted, new tweet out?stks.co/iXMe
  • “Don’t forget his purchase of 83% of CVR Energy. Equally good. FD: +$CVI ” ? David_Merkel?disq.us/8d9jmi?cc:@refomedbroker?$$
  • @AlephBlog?Growth and the Market. Useful piece to help people make sense of seemingly over-valued equity market:wp.me/p3nd6r-4s
  • Sets up future losses $$ RT@tomkeene: ?Cov-lite? loans soar in dash for yield -?FT.com?on.ft.com/12daxfK
  • @kurtgodeldabomb?I like your name. Yes, that’s y I said it; I think its the voting machine 4 most companies, & weighing machine 4 a few
  • “Until the strategy fails, and he asks you to leave.” ? David_Merkeldisq.us/8d97f5?$$
  • @pope_stephen?Sadly, monetary policy was much better run under Volcker & Martin, & they were not going out of their way 2 explain the Fed $$

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 42 retweets received, 2 new listings, 60 new followers, 37 mentions. Via:?20ft.net/p

 

Value Investing Flavors

Value Investing Flavors

Posted on by David Merkel

I ran across this article, Value Investor or Value Pretender: Which Are You?, by who puts out The Manual of Ideas, along with Oliver Mihaljevic.? I appreciate what they do — you can learn a lot from their organization.

I told him that I was going to write this, and he said to me:

The piece was meant tongue-in-cheek but feel free to rip it apart 🙂

I will rip it apart, but gently, because every point he made is mostly true for value investors, but there are variations in the way that value investors operate, so you can do some of the things he says you can’t do, and still be a value investor — what matters is how you implement them.

There will be more parts to my “Education of a Risk Manager” series, and one of them will deal with all of the different managers that I met, and how much they varied in terms of what they thought were factors that mattered.

Thus, as I developed my own theories of value investing, I considered the range of opinion, and realized that there is a single model for value investing, but that it is complex enough that different parties use different approximations of the full model, and those approximations do better and worse in different environments.

Like a David Letterman-style Top 10 list, John Mihaljevic listed and described things that made you a value pretender.? Time to go through them:

Reason #10: You invest based on chart patterns

I don’t use chart patterns, but I do use momentum both positively & negatively.? There is decent evidence that investors are slow to react to new information, and so stocks with strong price momentum over 200 days tend to do better.? There is some evidence where there is lousy price momentum over a 4-year period, that things tend to mean-revert.

Granted, there is a tendency among some value investors to troll the 52-week low list.? I like doing that too, but you have to be careful, because maybe you are missing something that cleverer investors know.? The same would be true of short interest figures.? Whenever I see one of my stocks gain a high short interest ratio (shares sold short / volume, or % of mkt cap sold short), I do a review to see what I don’t know.? That’s why I am not afraid of the high level of shorting on Stancorp Financial.? This is a conservatively run firm that manages risk up front.? Even though disability claims rise when unemployment is high, they underwrite better than most of the industry.

There have been some very successful value plus momentum investors.? The balance is tricky, but blending two of the most powerful anomalies does bear fruit.

Reason #9: You assume multiple expansion in your investment theses

I never assume that, but if you are buying them “safe and cheap,” you often do get multiple expansion.? The challenge is figuring out where things are less bad then the implied opinion of the depressed valuation.

Reason #8: You try to figure out how a company will do vis-?-vis?quarterly EPS estimates

I don’t do that either, but I have known some value managers that incorporate prior earnings surprise data, because past earnings surprises are correlated with future surprises.? Often, near the the turnaround point for a company’s stock, there are some earnings surprises.

Reason #7: You base your decisions on analyst recommendations

I have few arguments with this, except negatively.? Sell-side analysts are trailing indicators.? I like buying companies where the sell-side is negative, but not very negative.? With very negative opinion, there are often reasons to stay away, unless you possess specific knowledge that the sell-side analysts do not have.

Reason #6: You use P/E to Growth (PEG) as a key valuation metric

I’m sorry, but PEG works, if indeed you have the growth rate right, which is a challenge.? I do try to analyze sustainable competitive advantage for the firms that I own.? That often leads to growth.? Now I am a growth skeptic, so it takes a lot to make me pay up for growth, but occasionally I will do so, when the PEG is low enough.

Reason #5: You use EBITDA as a measure of cash flow

EBITDA is not cash flow from operations, or free cash flow, but it is a valuable figure in value investing when it divides into Enterprise Value (Value of Debt + Value of Stock – Cash).? Low ratios of Enterprise value divided by EBITDA are very effective at identifying promising investments — it indicates cheap assets, and in a time when M&A is hot, it can really pay off.

Reason #4: You would worry about your portfolio if the market closed for a year

I could live with the market closed, but there are advantages to having it open.? With any given stock, there are times in a year to increase or reduce exposure — if you have a firm idea of what the firm is worth, you can buy more during dips, and sell a little into strong rallies.? Short term (one month) stock price movements are fickle, and commonly reverse.

Reason #3: You make investment decisions based on the activity or tips of others

But Manual of Ideas tracks the 13F filings of great investors.? I get good ideas from the best investors also, but you have to do your own research.? Many bright investors chat with each other, and I had many occasions at the hedge fund that I worked for where I disagreed with a friend of the boss.? I was right more often than I was wrong.

Perhaps a better way to phrase it is “choose your idea generators wisely, but do your own research as well.”

Reason #2: Your investment process centers on the market opportunity

This is largely true, but when I know a industry or sector is in horrible shape, I often buy the strongest name in the industry, realizing that they will do well as the competition dies, and they don’t.? Also, there are times when few recognize that pricing power has shifted, and it is time to take a position on a misunderstood industry that is about to grow faster than expected.? Particularly with cyclical companies this idea can be promising.

The same applies to countries where the markets are washed out.? Don’t try to time the bottom, but when a country is cheap, buy a promising/safe company in the country after things have turned up for 100 days or so.

Reason #1: Your investment theses do not reference the stock price

At some points, I like to own companies with strong management teams relative to their industry.? I will let valuation stretch at those points, because there is more of a sustainable competitive advantage there.? You get more positive surprises, and that definitely aids total returns.

That said, a focus valuation is key to all investing.? The only thing more important is margin of safety.

Margin of Safety

There are three elements to margin of safety:

  1. Sustainable Competitive Advantage (Strong Gross Margins)
  2. Strong Balance Sheet (Conservative Accounting)
  3. Cheap Price vs Likely Value

This is different from other formulations of margin of safety, because one has to take into account factors that make it less certain that we can calculate value.? Many value managers were buying cheap financials up until September 2008, only to realize that their estimates? of value were wrong because credit losses would be far worse than expected.

Good stock analysis begins with good bond analysis.? If you wouldn’t buy a bond from the firm, you probably shouldn’t buy the stock.? Value investing is conservative, and looks for situations where there is little credit risk.

Conclusion

If you want to read? summary of my portfolio rules, you can find them here.? I am a firm believer in value investing, but I realize that there are many ways to approach the process.? I watch other value investors, and continue to learn.? Good value investors are lifelong learners, and generalists with broad knowledge.? It is not a narrow discipline, but one that can accommodate new knowledge.

Full disclosure: long SFG

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

 

  • IMF: Canada could make case for more interest rate cuts http://t.co/Zd3zmMUH IMF peddles snake oil2Canada, lower rates would b a disaster $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Why Venezuela’s Devaluation Is Biting http://t.co/LL54JRZ8 Corporations operating in Venezuela get hit b/c there is no good way 2 hedge $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Soros Aide Wins Kudos for Japan Bets http://t.co/DoaYtYMJ Scott Bessent has his own investing ideas, freeing his boss 2 peddle bad ideas $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Euro-Zone Economy Plunges http://t.co/JEQVfGep Eventually Germany is going to have to accept that debts they r owed must be written down $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Tensions Mount as China Snatches Farms for Homes http://t.co/a8aIqqxR Only backward countries like China prohibit ownership of land $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • China’s Internet ‘Wall’ Hits Business http://t.co/Kh7zDD0E The Great Firewall of China hinders commerce. Also, harder to get VPNs now $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • No Shirakawa Eulogies as JGBs Look Beyond Weak BOJ http://t.co/9orwutaY The BOJ is still sterilizing, but they r buying long-dated JGBs $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Japan Needs Weaker Yen; US Has No Right to Complain http://t.co/OG5tcNFS At least *someone* has2test resolve of US “Strong Dollar Policy” $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Panasonic CEO Attacks Sprawl in Bid for Profit: Tech http://t.co/bfsbdZLO $PC is a tough turnaround, but maybe this guy could do it. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Irish Town Lives Up to Motto Amid Horse-Meat Scandal http://t.co/cMIQRtUd ?Be at the center,? is the motto of the Irish town of Ballybay. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • G7 Nations Attempt to Avoid Currency War http://t.co/CJjCgjzr G-7 Roils Currency Markets With Split on Concern Over Yen http://t.co/xH2ro4tk Feb 13, 2013
  • The problems with Petrobras http://t.co/pgibXCf5 Rapid growth & large investment plans rarely work well; good growth is incremental $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • USD-JPY: False Start? http://t.co/kVWnFDH6 The Japanese r changing the currency game; the sterilization is gone. What central bank next? $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Chinese Workers?in Greenland? – Businessweek http://t.co/nmzjpHaP China moves 2 monopolize rare earth metals, maybe, now mining Greenland $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canadian Mega Housing Bubble Part 2 – Impact on Canadian Economy http://t.co/WbS22E3Z On the bright side, Canadian Gov’t not overindebted $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canada is not immune of a global slowdown http://t.co/NDCdMHOY slower global economy -> slower increase in demand 4 crude oil $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Chavez Risks Backlash as Venezuelan Deficit Prompts Devaluation http://t.co/V5RLwpMW Squanders well-being of nation for personal goals $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013

US Politics

 

  • State Exchange Buildout Shifts Into High Gear http://t.co/mwSFxe9e When history deals w/what destroyed healthcare, will b a pic of Obama $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • James Bovard: Perform Criminal Background Checks at Your Peril http://t.co/y8kZYsq4 Another reason why most jobs aren’t advertised $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • A Chinese Hacker’s Identity Unmasked http://t.co/5BE5XgKe Details the means by which a significant Chinese hacker was exposed. $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Republicans See Obama Second-Term Agenda as Dead in Water http://t.co/uR4sUMjI Worked in 2011-2012, will work in 2013-2014 $$ #justsayno Feb 14, 2013
  • Public Expenditures Austerity and SP500 addicted to QE http://t.co/TzTzL9VL We need to have a debate over whether QE helps real economy $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • How Not to Run a Pension http://t.co/MwNhzEdd John Mauldin on pensions mess we r in federal, state, & municipal. Blue states worst off $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Central Banks Gone Wild: What Can Investors Do? http://t.co/wzL2xadd Gold, stocks, & the currency of the one that loosened last w/ a lag $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Obama S&P Case Started When Toxic Debt Masqueraded as AAA http://t.co/V9umvcfN S&P shuld show how little $$ was lost on AAA securitized debt Feb 12, 2013
  • US Economy – Growth Still coming from Borrowing? http://t.co/MTRiKYNi Yes, a lot of current consumption stems from more consumer debt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Corn growers get two-thirds of record US crop insurance payout http://t.co/2D1wWc0E Farm lobby swilling @ trough, subsidies not needed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Central banking and bubbles: Scott Sumner is wrong | The Economist http://t.co/wDTZzEQ6 It’s not hard to measure total debt / GDP ratio $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Biofuel Scandal Pushes Trading Firm Into Bankruptcy http://t.co/uETQyx0D firm accidentally sold $9 million worth of fake biofuel credits $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Should the Fed pop bubbles by raising interest rates? http://t.co/IhKnbA80 Fed should avoid creating bubbles in the first place $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Bipartisan Letter Seeks Answers on Open-Government Failures http://t.co/shFKY7PB Many people voted for change & got Bush-plus in return $$ Feb 09, 2013

 

Berkshire Hathaway & Heinz

 

  • Shopping Spree for Wall Street http://t.co/QNfGJ14E Premature I think. Yesterday was big4 M&A, but it could just b a fluke $$ $HNZ $AMR $LCC Feb 15, 2013
  • First Bud, Now Heinz, Brazilian Deal Maker Lemann Grabs Brands http://t.co/CxWLqjPH A glimpse at the guys *really* behind the $HNZ deal $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett?s Buffet: An All-American Meal at Warren?s Table http://t.co/WyjedMKb Can get a complete high-calorie meal at Warren’s restaurant $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Three Billionaires Join Buffett for Heinz Deal http://t.co/avb4QtVb Meet real guys behind the $HNZ deal; Buffett is riding on their bus $$ Feb 14, 2013

 

Other

?

  • Pope?s Culture Club Masks Conclave Packed With Benedict?s Clones http://t.co/0cv1g1T0 1st article I’ve seen that gets it. No major change $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Home Schooling & working from home has odd fun moments like my 16yo asking, “Why is the NE legislature unicameral?” http://t.co/CefD1i4p $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Uncork the Nose’s Secret Powers http://t.co/jKTvg3Ki There is an element of “use it or lose it” 4 ability to smell as we age $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • LightSquared?s Ghost Raised in Fight Over Talking Cars http://t.co/CGuxCIvh Maybe the Defense Dept could free up some spectrum it hoards $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Finance http://t.co/pzqzRJUr Mostly credit/transaction facilitators, some risk mgmt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Skin in Which Game? http://t.co/UV18ORq0 If I was going into an intellectual fight, I would bring @EpicureanDeal w/me rather than @nntaleb Feb 11, 2013
  • Blizzard Dumps Snow in Northeast, Knocks Out Power http://t.co/nji84Ub0 My sympathies. Remember 3 years ago getting 2 of those in a row $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Are Polar Bears Really Disappearing? http://t.co/5Epxg666 Probably not, population is bigger than in 1965, but small than in 1990 $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • A ‘Bucket List’ for Better Diversification http://t.co/XqjjhklO from @jasonzweigwsj | Good strategy, similar to the Permanent Portfolio Feb 09, 2013

?

Companies

?

  • Cisco Won’t Spend Money In The US Until The Tax Code Is Changed http://t.co/mbB7Dwk3 Logical outcome of poorly designed corp tax policy $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett does all he can to make his 13F hard to drag into Excel $$ $BRK.B Feb 15, 2013
  • As I go through 13F filings, it’s interesting to see industry concentrations. Some like retail, others financials, tech, energy etc $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Dodge & Cox http://t.co/zJzIEISU Maybe it shouldn’t make me feel better when I see a manager I like owning shares that I do, but it does $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • P&G Finds a ?Goldmine? in Analytics http://t.co/y0mnK8kH All large consumer businesses will realize detailed consumer knowledge is key $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $AAPL at Cheapest Since 2000 Signals Buy to Gamco, Thornburg http://t.co/rllHxys5 Not simple; Big companies need bigger markets 2 grow $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $FLEX raises $1B as a junk grade company for 7 & 10 years @ 4 5/8% & 5% & raises financial flexibility http://t.co/hOuCNEP7 FD: + $FLEX Feb 13, 2013
  • Assurant Gains as Fannie Mae Force-Placed Plan Stalls http://t.co/ELDqXD5O $AIZ soldiers on, w/rate decreases, but with a strong business $$ Feb 13, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • We still have renters to thank for healthier housing market http://t.co/apBD0gHD Which means 2many properties r in the hands of investors $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Do Junk Bonds Still Live in the Best of Both Worlds? http://t.co/j2w2docJ Demand 4 income is unabated, but there r limits 2 how low yields go Feb 14, 2013
  • SP500 Futures – Warning Signs Flashing RED? http://t.co/4gDyn3Ap Compendium of a lot of bearish reasoning, FWIW $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Bridgewater Bets on Stocks as Cash Moves Into Market http://t.co/GZTePjCz Dalio bets on reflation amid central banks fanning the flames $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How banks could get blown away by bond bubble http://t.co/xVpBFWmH A bond market in rebellion could deliver a lot of MTM losses 2 banks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The Fed?s tricky QE3 escape http://t.co/mcQadLoh There is no escape; when bond market turns on the Fed, vacuous policies will b exposed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • US High Yield Bonds: $HYG Disconnect with $SPY http://t.co/r0t4DASq S&P 500 strong while junk is weakening. Could b toxic for stocks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • To Drown in OIL http://t.co/xVJlIwZj Cushing inventories are at records, even w/the Seaway Pipeline pumping crude to Houston $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • SP500 Futures- More Warning Signs? http://t.co/Uc9LNqQB Too much bullishness, credit feeling soggy $$ $SPY Feb 12, 2013
  • Buyout-Boom Shakeout Seen Leaving One in Four to Starve http://t.co/wPcBuebk Always best to invest when capital is scarce, not in glut $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How Should an Investor Decide Whether to Dump a Mutual Fund That Has Been Doing Poorly? http://t.co/9c7lY4yI 12 opinions, mostly indexing $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Nasdaq Talked With Carlyle About Going Private: Sources http://t.co/LoFBgXH3 Cheap $$ looking 4a home; question boils down 2 price $NSDQ $CG Feb 12, 2013
  • Why These 4 Refinery Stocks Boast Bolting RS Lines http://t.co/jlb6luXS Will have to sell a refiner soon; momo crowd creating overshoot $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Dell Defends Deal: ?Offers an Attractive and Immediate Premium’ http://t.co/xrSaBCRs Objectors wud b convincing if they bot aggressively $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • The Dell Deal Is a Steal That May Die http://t.co/sVQj7aoe What amuses me is that largest complainer has been selling even as low as $10 $$ Feb 09, 2013

?

Wrong

  • Wrong: Buffett Cash Targets General Mills to Grainger http://t.co/TybErutX Many do articles like this; none of them ever prove correct $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Congress Starts Examining Changes to Charitable Tax Break http://t.co/cLSOeDUU There r much better ways to raise taxes or simplify $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Plans to Expand Preschool Unveiled http://t.co/VWDcxkAE It is better educationally to have young children @ home most of the time $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Wall Street Fading as Emerging-Market Banks Gain Share http://t.co/NLoYMLNy Too soon, the EM banks r immature w/risk control $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: Next Pope to Face Calls for Renewal After Benedict Resisted http://t.co/LNQ30x5Q American media does not understand the Vatican $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: An Aging Population May Be What the World Needs http://t.co/RBjuVRce Economies do not work well when # of workers shrinks $$ Feb 11, 2013

?

Replies and Retweets

  • .@joshuademasi Come on in it’s around the back, just a half a mile from the railroad track. U can get anything u want @ Warren’s restaurant Feb 15, 2013
  • @michellemalkin For the most part, I don’t tweet to engage; I use it to inform. Used 2do news blog posts, now I tweet good stuff 2 read $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @richriker EDGAR is free. There are some pay services that make it simpler to get 13F data, or other data filed w/the SEC Feb 15, 2013
  • ‘ @richriker Depends what you mean. They are all available at EDGAR http://t.co/PjUFyetg I have the pgs for 77 mgrs bookmarked $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense They did, as did Legg Mason, Third Avenue & others that thought value investing was “buy it cheap,” not safety Feb 14, 2013
  • @PlanMaestro Thanks, btw, I like your new logo — cool Feb 14, 2013
  • @researchpuzzler Thanks for showing that to me; I expect most actuaries will yawn at it; academics doing theory when current methods work $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Shocking revelation RT @EddyElfenbein: “I?m aggressive and annoying” – Paul Krugman http://t.co/9r8z51ke Feb 13, 2013
  • Bank shills $$ RT @davidmwessel: All 12 Fed bank presidents write FSOC asking for tougher rules on money market funds. http://t.co/0XhI4WXs Feb 12, 2013
  • U know it RT @historysquared: “TREASURY SECRETARY NOMINEE LEW:Says He Will Maintain a Strong Dollar Policy if Confirmed.” – do they all lie? Feb 13, 2013
  • ‘ @GaelicTorus I’m only human. Herod forgot that. http://t.co/iixVdgAN I haven’t. Thanks for the praise, though. Feb 13, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Warren Buffett turns his eye to annuities – MarketWatch” http://t.co/kz7S0yVP Feb 13, 2013
  • On the tweet two previous: long $AIZ . one of the best insurance companies I have known Feb 13, 2013
  • @JamesMarsh79 My view is inbetween. There r regularities, but w/a lot of noise around them Feb 12, 2013
  • Dalio is like Gross, he plans intermediate term but adjusts frequently $$ RT @jckhewitt: Whatever happened to that beautiful deleveraging? Feb 12, 2013
  • @MarshallFraser I don’t disagree w/crop ins., just the subsidy most of which makes it into the pockets of Big Ag & insurers, not familyfarms Feb 12, 2013
  • $JNK & $RUT diverge significantly, uh oh $$ RT @DougKass: One of the scariest charts extant http://t.co/WeLlmyhu (Hat tip Divine Ms M!) Feb 12, 2013
  • “I was skeptical of Apple, but I only mentioned it in tweets, so I can’t take much credit?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/L6p8D5Ic $AAPL $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • @joshuademasi Also, that every tightening cycle over the last 30 years ending with something blowing up; Fed rides to the rescue 2 soon $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • @joshuademasi I know that, but the ultimate proof over the last 30 years was the massive accumulation of debts from their ez $$ policy Feb 11, 2013
  • @ScottGalupo Totally disagree. BBA has been needed 4 40 years, and would have limited damage done in the present crisis. Debt is the problem Feb 10, 2013
  • @zringer21 Responded — hope you like it. Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I really admire your views, as you may surmise from my comments. Here is my piece on the topic: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM $$ Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I have written about this: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM Few want to follow sound ideas. Problem: If everyone did this gold wud soar Feb 10, 2013
  • @cate_long I am conservative in most ways, but Peter Wallison makes me nervous; I don’t usually trust his reasoning. Not enough real thought Feb 09, 2013
  • RT @EmanuelDerman: The EMH was economic jiu-jitsu to turn weakness into strength. “I can’t figure out how things work, so I’ll make that … Feb 09, 2013

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 48 retweets received, 2 new listings, 74 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 14, 2013

 

Theme: Overlay by Kaira.