Monthly Archives: July 2007

Is the S&P 500 30% undervalued?

The relationship of the VIX to the S&P 500 is an interesting one, one that I have studied for the past nine years. Over that time, I have used the relationships to: Design investment strategies for insurance companies selling Equity Indexed Annuities. Estimate the betas of common stocks. (Not that I believe in MPT…) Trade […]

Speculation Away From Subprime, Part 3

More on speculation, while avoiding subprime which is still over-reported. How much risk do hedge funds pose to the financial system?  My view is that the most severe risks of the financial system are being taken on by hedge funds.  If these hedge funds are fully capitalized by equity (not borrowing money or other assets), […]

Speculation Away From Subprime, Part 2

What a week, huh? Even with all of my cash on hand, I did a little worse than the S&P 500. One house keeping note before I get started, the file problem from my last insurance post is fixed. On to speculation: When trading ended on Friday, my oscillator ended at the fourth most negative […]

Post 200

This is the last numeric post at my blog.  After I write this, I will switch over to posts using the date and title to create the URL.  I liked the numbers, because it gave me a sense of progress, but my posts will index better with words rather than numbers (hat tip to Dr. […]

Speculation Away From Subprime, Part 1

Subprime lending is grabbing a lot of attention, but it is only a tiny portion of what goes on in our capital markets.  Tonight I want to talk about speculation in our markets, while largely ignoring subprime. I have grown to like the blog Accrued Interest.  There aren’t many blogs dealing with fixed income issues; […]