It has been one year since I started The Aleph Blog. During that time, we have seen a lot of changes:
- The panic in China in late February 2007.
- The troubles in subprime, home equity, and residential real estate generally. (Commercial real estate is a work in progress.)
- Increased realized volatility in the markets.
- Increased price inflation.
- The accelerated decline in the US Dollar.
- Blowout of private equity lending.
- Trouble as the rating agencies and the financial guarantors.
- Trouble in the money markets from SIVs and ABCP.
- Troubles in the municipal bond markets, mainly from overspeculation, but also from troubles at the guarantors.
- The FOMC shifts from being an inflation fighter to a weak economy and lending fighter.
- I left my previous employer (good guys generally), and have become employed elsewhere (a much better match for my abilities and desires).
- My broad market portfolio has adjusted to changing market conditions, and continues to outperform the S&P 500, as it has for the last 7.5 years.
Pretty amazing, I think. My blog is an expression of my character in the economics/finance/investment world. I have a lot of interests, so my blog is diversified in what I write about. There is almost always someone more experienced than me writing about a given issue. I think of myself as a good number 2 (3? 5? 10?) on many issues. Because of that, my job is to look for the interactions — the second-order effects in other markets that may give us a clue as to future happenings.
If you want to see a sampling of what I felt my best articles have been, you can look here. If you have other nominations for this category, I am all ears.
Why did I start the blog? Rejection from those that I wrote for and worked with. I was frustrated, and needed an outlet for self-expression. Learning from what I wrote at RealMoney, from the first day, I followed the same ethics code, to protect those that I worked for.
What of the future? I plan on some meaty articles on inflation, the PEG ratio, some book reviews, and perhaps a series on long-term investing for children. (In addition to what I mentioned in Post 500.)
Now, I did not expect the level of acceptance that I received in my first year, and so I thank my readers. I have been quoted in a wide number of places that I would not have expected when I started this. I only ask that if you like what I write, please refer my blog to your friends, as it seems best to you.
To all of my readers, here’s to a profitable year number two. Thanks for being with me over the past year. For those that have commented here, a special thank you. To my family and church, thank you. Finally, thanks be to Jesus Christ. Woo-hoo! What a great year! 😀