Month: June 2014

Book Review: The Basics of Financial Econometrics

Book Review: The Basics of Financial Econometrics

FinEconMost of my readers are not going to want to buy this book, because they are not inclined toward math. ?But for those that are math-inclined, I would encourage you not to buy the book. ?Why?

Well, there are much better books on Econometrics out there, that could teach the subject better. ?I can safely say that no Econometrics class would use this book as a text.

Beyond that, the book does not come up with a lot of areas where “this is where you have to be careful in using regression on econometric data.”

I did learn a few things from the chapter on factor analysis, but that is not typically classified as econometrics.

As such, I don’t see any class of people that would benefit from this book.

Quibbles

Already mentioned.

Summary

There is no good audience for this book. ?If you still want the book, you can buy it here:?The Basics of Financial Econometrics: Tools, Concepts, and Asset Management Applications (Frank J. Fabozzi Series).

Full disclosure: The publisher asked me if I would like a copy and I said yes.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: My Thoughts

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: My Thoughts

Self-regulation: let’s think about a person. ?Can he regulate his own life on his own? ?Of course he can. ?But will he?

The same is true of markets. SROs can be?effective if the culture is good, and people are willing to take actions against friends. ?But an SRO can also develop a culture that has a blind eye toward offenses, until the media embarrasses them. ?The same can be true of regulators, though. ?They can be “in bed” with the industry if the wrong culture exists in the regulatory body.

2) The trouble with financial companies and products is that they make promises, whether sharp or?vague, about the future. ?That leads some people to commit money today to those products, which may be bad or good. ?When done across a whole economy, that can lead to booms and busts. ?That is a great reason to regulate the promises made by financial firms.

3) But how do you regulate? ?Do you have a sharp separation between the regulators and the regulated, which can make regulation adversarial, or do you introduce a third party, the SRO? ?The SRO is a kind of middleman, who executes the will of the regulator, but takes into account the special conditions in each market, and talks with the regulator about where they might be wrong in what they would ordinarily do.

4) SROs have specialized knowledge, drawing from the firms they regulate. ?Well, regulators could have the also, if they hired the best, and paid them what they could earn in the private sector. ?My but the regulated would be baffled if they faced the “stone wall” of their equals in dealing with regulators.

But our government is chintzy where it should be bold. ?Aside from idealistic investors like me, (and I have applied to various government positions without the decency of a reply) it is difficult to attract top talent without paying top dollar. ?And as such, they have not gotten top talent. ?Academics are not top talent. ?They don’t really know how the markets work. ?They know how their models of the markets work.

Ideally, you need investors who understand the academic research, like me. ?If you have regulators with that strength of knowledge, you could regulate well.

5) Many of the speakers today talked about mining big data to get results. ?I will tell you that the only way to get those results is to hire talented programmers, then train them in the markets. ?Waste time teaching them; they’re bright, they will learn. ?Then after the initial training, propose the first project. ?You will create a cadre of clever programmers that can sniff out problems. ?Pamper them, and you will have a fantastic corps for sniffing out financial irregularities.

The guy from the National Futures Association emphasized the idea that mandatory membership in the association as a requirement to do business was paramount for an SRO and I can see that. ?The SRO then has the “death penalty” hanging over the heads of those they regulate. ?That said, consider this: the CFA Institute may dream of the day when all involved in investing *must* hold a?CFA Charter.

I have no doubt that this would be a good thing. ?Ethics codes are good for the industry, and to kick out bad apples would be a good thing.

6) When there are more than two?parties in any economic arrangement, regulation gets tough. ?It becomes difficult to separate the various interests, and come up with the right division of duties toward the ultimate consumer.

7) On Rules-based vs Principles-based regulation, in the American context, I lean toward rules-based. ?Rules-based has the advantage of comparability. ?Let the analysts make their adjustments, and let the companies provide the data to do so. ?But provide a consistent set of rules that all need to comply with first.

8 ) Finally, on derivatives. ?Regulate them as insurance, and let the states deal with it. ?Require insurable interest such that only bona fide hedgers can initiate trades. ?Speculators should not be allowed to trade with each other; that is gambling. ?If we did this, the derivatives market would shrink dramatically, and no one would be hurt.

That is what I would do, and Wall Street would fight it, tooth and nail.

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 3)

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 3)

US System of Self-Regulation through SROs: Strengths and Areas for Reform?

Questions

 

  • What are the most substantial/significant contributions of the current SRO system in the United States?
  • What areas present the greatest need for reform?
  • How can the private versus ?state actor? functions of non-exchange SROs be reconciled?

 


David Blass
Chief Counsel, Division of Trading and Markets
US Securities and Exchange Commission

Trading markets division oversees oversees rules, rule changes, etc. ?Promulgate rules, exposes to the public. ?Dodd-Frank gives strict deadlines now, which if exceeded leads to proceedings, which now means further time to evaluate, decide, and additional public exposure.

Lynnette Kelly
Executive Director
Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB)

Created in 1975 to deal with egregious conduct. ?Regulates the muni market. ?Writes rules and others enforce. ?SEC regulates on anti-fraud. ?Protect muni issuers since Dodd-Frank. ?Provides data to other regulators.

 

Daniel J. Roth
President and CEO
National Futures Association

SRO deals with Futures & Swaps — interacts with the CFTC. ?NFA is to CFTC as FINRA is to the SEC regarding crafting of regulations.


Moderated by: Cheryl L. Evans, CFA Institute

DM Note: attendance down to about 50 at this point.
Q to LK: ?How does MSRB “protect issuers?”
LK: Qualified professionals are held to a higher standard. ?[DM: note Poway School District…]
Q: What do you look for in an SRO?
DJR: Mandatory membership is needed, which makes expulsion end the business of the one thrown out.
LK: Collection of data is important. ?Led the way on “pay to play” issues. ?Argues that the muni market is the most transparent bond market after Treasuries. ?[DM: I doubt that.]
DB: Authority, Deep Knowledge, Sanctions help make for a good SRO.
Q: How can SROs aid regulators with data issues?
DB: we are data hungry in order to classify market participants. ?MIDAS — more timely analysis of market trading data.
LK: Aids in collecting analyzing data. ?Analyzes trade data daily. ?Responds to requests from law enforcement and regulators. ?They have allocated a lot more time and money getting analyses together.
DJR:?Drawing together all of the data is tough, but when you do it, you uncover anomalies. ?Constantly developing new systems. ?Have to have human intervention, computers aren’t enough.
Q to DB: How are you increasing your analyses of data at the SEC?
DB: lots of ways, one example is churning.
Q: Conflict challenges, how do you deal with them?
DJR: Create a system of checks and balances. ?34 people on his board, public director are the largest bloc. ?Diverse interest also sometimes checks matters.
LK: We are audited. ?Staff is independent of the board. ?Directors must be competent & ethical.
Q to LK: How do you provide interpretative guidance?
LK: they try to interact quietly with the regulators to resolve differences of opinion.
DB: FINRA is in the same place regarding the SEC. ?FINRA has to enforce SEC securities rules.
Q: What the data sharing rules regarding agencies and SROs?
DJR: CFTC has full access to our data. ?We notify other affiliated regulators/SROs.
LK: Formal rules w/FINRA, IRS, banking regulators, etc., law enforcement via subpoenas.
Q to LK: Additional financial information on new issues?
LK: No authority over financial issuers, more frequent disclosure would be better. ?We make our systems easy for?issuers to upload data. ?FOIA requests can be made as well on issuers. ?Munis are not high quality liquid securities.
Q: Thoughts on principles-based rules and regulations?
DB: perennial issue, we will never be fully one way or another. ?Market participants request rules to guide them when principles are issued.
LK concurs.
DJR says that principles-based rules allow them to be tougher. ?Market participants have a rule: they complain. ?(laughter from audience)
Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 2)

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 2)

Exchange SROs: Meeting the Needs of Investors and the Financial Marketplace

Questions:

  • How do exchange SROs contribute to the effective functioning of the securities markets?
  • How has the role of exchanges changed since they were first designated as SROs, and have these changes affected their ability to function effectively in that role?
  • Do recent breakdowns in exchange oversight functions indicate a need for an overhaul of structure/functions or point to ?fatal flaws? in the current system?
  • Are conflicts in the current system of demutualized exchanges resolvable or inherent in the system?
  • What needs to be done to reinforce the integrity of the system and increase investor protections?
  • How does increased competition from broker/dealer internalization networks and foreign trading markets affect exchanges under the constraints of the current self-regulatory system?

Panel

Roberta Karmel
Centennial Professor of Law, Brooklyn Law School
Former Commissioner of the US Securities and Exchange Commission

The change from fixed commissions was significant. ?NASD traders had preferential rates trading with one another. ?Existing SROs continued on. ?Expulsion was a threat. ?Exchange listing standards were a significant protection.

Many markets, and profit seeking exchanges have changed matters. ?Sarbox and Dodd-Frank have affected matters ?with listing requirements. ?JOBS act has opened up listing standards, and perhaps not in a good way. ?SEC was happy to see the monopoly of the NYSE broken, but there have been unanticipated secondary effects. ?We need to ask what kind of regulation we need now in the present environment.

 

Richard G. Ketchum
Chairman and CEO,?Financial Industry Regulatory Authority

Mentions MS was the first Chair of FINRA. ?Merger of NASD and NYSE Reg. ?FINRA has an enhanced majority of public governors. ?No way for industry to capture FINRA. ?Oversees all bond and equity trading. ?Exchange SROs can delegate to FINRA, but they must oversee what FINRA does for them.

 

Mary Schapiro
Vice Chairman of the Advisory Board, Promontory Financial Group
Former Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission
Former CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)
Former Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

SROs are cost-effective and flexible, with deep expertise. ?Examine participants, Surveill markets, etc. ?New tech, markets, exchanges as profit-seeking entities are new challenges. ?Conflicts of interest have grown along with HFT.

 

Moderated by: Andrew N. Vollmer, University of Virginia School of Law

Q: Does the current system work well? What areas do we need to change?

MS: It’s working well. ?Vigilence is needed. ?Well-functioning SROs are an aid to regulators. ?Easier for an SRO to address an issue with stakeholders.

RK: Wants the SEC to have a bigger budget, merge the CFTC into the SEC. ?SROs are necessary now because the system won’t work without them. ?Fragmentation of?trading makes self-regulation less effective.

ANV asks RGK to reply.

RGK says FINRA aids regulators. ?FINRA brings knowledge, focus and access. ?Government regulators are more confrontational, FINRA can get more done. ?Exchanges are the only ones enforcing listing?standards.

MS concurs that listing standards are needed.

 

Q: Have we lost some of the benefits of SROs with the delegation of authority to FINRA?

RGK: has worked with SROs his whole life. ?Comments how things were often worse in the past, not all things are worse today.

MS:?Concurs with RGK.

RK: There has been loss, much of it through the destruction of exchange-based trading. ?2008 meltdown — few firms did anything to stop the crisis. ?Everyone acted in their own interest.

 

Q: Aside from listing standards, what other?things should the exchange SROs do?

MS: Exchanges will always be responsible for aspects of investor protection.

RK: Exchanges will always have an interest in the integrity of their markets.

RGK: Comments that exchanges should watch over the quality of products traded [DM: think of leveraged and inverse ETFs, ETNs, penny stocks, promoted stocks, etc.]

 

Q: What about efficiency at the SRO level?

MS: Competition and efficiency don’t always work well together. ?SEC and CFTC should be merged.

RK:?SEC and CFTC should be merged. ?Need more than one regulator, though. ?Did not work in the UK. ?FSOC a disaster, a non-solution.

RGK: We interact with everyone. ?No opinion on whether the?SEC and CFTC should be merged.

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 1)

Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections (Part 1)

I’m at the?Self-Regulation in the Financial Markets: Exchange Issues, Market Structure, and Investor Protections Conference hosted by the CFA Institute and the DC Society. ?I will be making occasional posts on this today, in the form of summary notes.

Jim Allen, CFA
Head, Capital Markets Policy ? Americas

CFA Institute ? already self-regulated.? Aids in flexibility of regulation.? De facto standards of investment performance measurement ? GIPS [Global Investment Performance Standards].

Mary Schapiro
Vice Chairman of the Advisory Board, Promontory Financial Group
Former Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission
Former CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)
Former Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Keynote talk

Has spent much of her life heading self-regulatory organizations [SROs].? She thinks SROs lever the effectiveness of government in regulating finance.? Congress does not appropriate the proper amount of money to regulate finance on its own.? Employee levels in the government regulators have not grown.

Regulating RIAs ? only 9% examined in 2013 managing $55 Trillion of assets.? SROs are not a second choice solution.? There is more expertise, tech knowledge, etc.

The Future of Self-Regulatory Organizations

Cited this article: Top 10 Characteristics of Effective Self-Regulatory Organizations

DM note: There are about 60 people here in this room adequate to hold about 150.

First Panel

Global Overview: Role of Self-Regulation in Increasingly Interconnected and Complex Markets

Topics

 

  • What are the benefits of an effective self-regulatory system in the securities markets?
  • What challenges does the self-regulatory system face in light of the complexity of financial products and trading mechanisms (algorithmic trading, dark pools, etc.), and what resources are needed in response?
  • How does the use of ?front-line? regulators in certain market sectors contribute to more effective regulation?
  • What is the future for self-regulation? How do the experiences differ between emerging markets and those that are more established?

Chris Brummer
Professor of Law — Georgetown University Law Center
No intro talk.
Amarilis Sardenberg
Chair of the Board?– BM&FBOVESPA Market Supervision

Government Bond ? Central Bank

OTC Bond, Securities, and Derivatives ? all under one regulator.? Each has its own SRO.? Her securities SRO audits brokers and custodians.? All trades tracked by beneficial owner; makes tracking manipulation easier.
Susan Wolburgh Jenah
President and CEO –Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada [IROC]

Heads a national SRO in Canada.? Provinces have financial regulatory authority.? This is somewhat similar to insurance regulation in the US.? SROs have greater authority in Canada.? Audited regularly, and the results are made public.? Thinks they hold to the Top 10 Characteristics of Effective Self-Regulatory Organizations pretty well.

Moderated by: Jim Allen, CFA, CFA Institute

Q: Challenges of SROs?

CB: 2 ? points: 1) Globalization ? financial trade can go on anywhere ? affects regulation.? Coordination is helpful, the US cannot dictate international rules.? Soft principles have dominated over negotiating hard principles.

2) Disintermediation of financial services firms eliminates gatekeeping functions of financial firms.? Bitcoin, Crowdfunding, Dark pools, etc.? (DM: I would have said derivatives or money market funds?)

SWJ: Changes have been huge ? explosion of exchanges in Canada and the US. ?High frequency trading [HFT] is highly controversial ? and it is a data-intensive task to investigate what is right or wrong.

AS: Coordination of policy is important.? A little surprised at arbitrage trades.

 

Q: What to do about attacks from hackers?

SWJ: Big issue, the investment banks are big targets.? Smaller firms lag on resources.? We try to educate on the issue, create best practices, policies, etc.? Their SRO hires hackers to test their systems.

AS: Similar answer to SWJ, adds that the exchanges have their own efforts.

CB: Capture the right data, analyze it.

 

Q: Regulatory arbitrage, how to reduce?

 

CB: Cites: The Danger of Divergence: Transatlantic Financial Reform & the G20 Agenda

Different regulators move at different speeds, and face local challenges.? Different cultures affect implementation.

SWJ: Businesses move faster than regulators.? Are provincial securities regulators able to adapt more rapidly than a national regulator? [DM: If they cooperate, I think it can work.]

AS: There are so many trades going across borders that it is very difficult to police.? Post-trade settlement is tough ? harmonizing settlement standards has a long way to go.

 

Q: How do you avoid industry capture?

SWJ: IROC does not advocate, it only regulates.? Purity of purpose is important.? Board is 7 independent, 7 industry and the Chair.? Nominating Committee composed of the independent directors plus Chair.? Everything public and transparent.

AS: Her exchange SRO is established by statute, and has clear authority and goals as a result.? Board of 11, 8 must be independent.

 

Q: Not many SROs in banking, as finance goes more global, how will SROs fare?

CB: Harmonization of data collection would help.? Difficult to harmonize all regulation under one roof.? Federal Reserve doing some of this. [DM: not really]? Long history of SROs in finance and other areas, like accounting.? Independent majority on SRO boards need with an independent source of revenues.

SWJ: There is an academic paper to be written here.? [DM: Panic of 1907, Great Depression help explain it.]

AS: Not many exchange based SROs: US, Canada, Brazil, Columbia…

Post 2500: What is the Aleph Blog About?

Post 2500: What is the Aleph Blog About?

Every hundred or so posts, I take a step back, and try to think about broader issues about blogging about finance. ?Tonight, I want to explain to new readers what the Aleph Blog is about.

There have been many new followers added to my blog recently, ?through e-mail, RSS, and natively. ?This is because of this great article at Marketwatch, which builds off of this great article at Michael Kitces’ blog.

I am humbled to be included among Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, and Cullen Roche, and am genuinely surprised to be at number 4 among RIAs in social media influence. ?Soli Deo Gloria.

What Does the Aleph Blog Care About?

I’m writing this primarily for new readers, because I’ve written a lot, and over a lot of areas. ?I write about a broader range of topics than almost all finance bloggers do because:

  • I’m both a quantitative analyst and a qualitative analyst.
  • I’m an economist that is skeptical about the current received wisdom.
  • I like reading books, so I write a lot of book reviews.
  • I’m also a skeptic regarding Modern Portfolio Theory, and would like to see it discarded from the CFA and SOA syllabuses.
  • I believe in value investing, in both the quantitative and qualitative varieties.
  • I believe that risk control is a core concept for making money — you make more money by not losing it.
  • I believe that good government policy focuses on ethics, not results. ?The bailouts were not fair to average Americans. ?What would have been fair would have been to let the bank/financial holding companies fail, while protecting the interests of depositors. ?The taxpayers would have been spared, and there would have been no systematic crisis had that been done.
  • I care about people not getting cheated. ?That includes penny stocks, structured notes, private REITs, and many other financial innovations. ?No one on Wall Street wants to do you a favor, so do your own research and buy what you want to own, not what someone wants to sell you.
  • Again, I don’t want to see people cheated, so I write about ?insurance. ?As a former actuary, and insurance buy-side analyst, I know a lot about insurance. ?I don’t know this for sure, but I think this is the blog that writes the most about insurance on the web for free. ?I write as one that invests in insurance stocks, and generally, I buy the stocks because I like the management teams. ?Ethical, hard working insurance management teams do the best.
  • Oddly, this is regarded to be a good accounting blog, because as a user of accounting statements, I write about accounting issues.
  • I am a skeptic on monetary and fiscal policy, and believe both of them tend to sacrifice the future to benefit the present. ?Our grandchildren will hate us. ? That brings up another issue: I write about the effects of demographics on the markets. ?In a world where populations are shrinking in developed nations, and will be shrinking globally by 2040, there are significant economic impacts. ?Economies don’t do well when workers are shrinking in proportion to those who are not working. ?(Note: include stay-at-home moms and dads in those who work. ?They are valuable.)
  • I care about the bond market. ?There aren’t that many good bond market blogs. ?I won’t write about it every day, but I will write about i when it is important.
  • I care about pensions. ?Most of the financial media knows things are screwed up there, but they do not grasp how bad the eventual outcome will likely be. ?This is scary stuff — choose the state you live in with care.

Now, if you want my most basic advice, visit my personal finance category.

If you want my view of what my best articles have been, visit my best articles category.

If you want to read about my “rules,” read the rules category.

Maybe you want to read some of my most popular series:

My blog is not for everyone. ?I write about what I feel most strongly about each evening. ?Since I have a wide array of interests, that makes for uneven reading, because not everyone cares about all the things that I do. ?If that makes my readership smaller, so be it. ?My blog expresses my point of view; it is not meant to be the largest website on finance. ?I want to be special, even if that means small, expressing my point ?of view to those who will listen.

I thank all of my readers for reading me. ?I appreciate all of you, and thank you for taking the time to read me.

As one final comment, I need to say this. ?I note people unfollowing my blog at certain times, and I say to myself, “Oh, I haven’t been writing about his pet issue for a while.” ?Lo, and behold, after these people leave, I start writing about it again. ?That is not intentional, but it is very similar to how the market works. ? People buy and sell investments at the wrong times.

To all my readers, thank you for reading me. ?I value all of you, and though I can’t answer all e-mails, I read all e-mails.

In summary: the Aleph Blog is about ethics and competence. ?I want to do what is right, and do what gives the best investment performance, in that order.

 

Zzzzzzzzzzz…

Zzzzzzzzzzz…

There was one time when I was writing for RealMoney when none of the three main indexes (S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite) moved much on a given day, and so posted on it to show how rare it was. ?One fellow e-mailed me be saying, “You have too much ?time on your hands.”

Maybe so, but on 6/10/2014, it was even more quiet. ?It was the 11th most quiescent day for the indexes since the Nasdaq Composite was created in February 1971. ?Here’s a list of quiet days:

Date Least Volatile Nasdaq S&P500 DJIA
11/12/2012 1 -0.021% 0.013% -0.002%
12/27/1977 2 0.019% 0.000% -0.020%
8/20/2012 3 -0.012% -0.002% -0.027%
6/14/1989 4 -0.022% -0.025% -0.004%
12/2/2011 5 0.028% -0.024% -0.005%
8/26/2009 6 0.010% 0.012% 0.044%
10/11/2010 7 0.017% 0.015% 0.035%
3/16/1993 8 0.037% -0.013% 0.016%
5/31/1979 9 0.023% -0.030% 0.021%
11/2/1984 10 0.000% -0.042% -0.035%
6/10/2014 11 0.041% -0.025% 0.017%

There’s no rhyme or reason to this list. ?Quiet days are unique, and as far as this list goes, are a once in four?years occurrence. ?Still, it’s fun to think about quiet days, and wonder why we have trading at all. ?We may as well have had a vacation day.

Enabling Others

Enabling Others

Whether on a micro-level (a business) or on a macro-level (a government) the way to build value comes from a simple concept. ?What can I/we do to enable the goals of others? ?Growth and success come through service.

Balzac famously said, “Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.” ?There’s only one problem behind this statement — it’s only true in crony ?economies, where connections to siphon tax dollars matter more than meeting human needs. ?It is false elsewhere.

I know there are some who will begrudge anyone the wealth that they have, because they are envious. ?Envy is a bad guide to life and public policy. ?If you want a poor society, encourage envy. ?If you want a rich society, encourage service.

Division of labor is an amazing thing, and it aids the well-being of all. ?I could see a business created that would aid rich people who are stretched for time, where many people would work for them, directly or indirectly, solving their needs. ?That could employ a decent number of people, much like things were in the UK in the early 1800s, where the wealthy gentlemen, living off of rents from their lands, employed servants. ?Those servants gained a better life, and so did the families of the gentlemen. ?Was it perfect? ?No, nothing is perfect aside from God, but when we help meet the goals of others, society improves, and the economy does as well. ?It reduces unemployment. ?People who work are far more happy than those that don’t work, even if the wages are small. ?We were created to work, and it is no surprise that when we don’t have work, we tend to be sad.

Governments should think along these lines as well — what can we do to enable our people to work hard and produce valuable goods and services? ?Some parts are easy:

  • A predictable legal structure
  • Regular enforcement — enforcement is not a surprise
  • Don’t be burdensome — government can’t solve every problem, so limit regulation to the most important aspects of society.
  • A tax structure that doesn’t change often, and reflects economics rather than politics. ?Tax businesses and individuals on their increase in value on an accrual basis, and at a single rate.

These policies would free businesses to produce, while meeting the most important goals of society (don’t force pollution on others, etc.)

Personal Application

Do you want to be well-off? ?Meet the needs of others, even if those needs are not well-known yet.

Mark Zuckerberg met the need of many people who want to share their lives with others via Facebook. ?The same applies to Twitter and Instagram.

Bill Gates created the operating system of Apple Computers at a much lower price point, enabling many people to have a GUI that could not afford a Mac, even if it had a lot of bugs.

Samsung created a competitor to the iPhone at a much cheaper price point using Android, software free from Google.

People want to look thin, sexy, etc? ?Provide shapewear for them a la Spanx.

The list could go on and on… there is a surfeit of human need, particularly on the low end of income, and those who meet those needs can do very well for their clients and themselves.

As for me

So what about me then? ?Well, I don’t charge anything for anyone to read me. ?I write this as a public service. ?People can evaluate whether it is really to their benefit or not.

That said most of my clients started as readers of my blog. ?What good do I do for my clients? ?Several things:

  • I leave them free. ?I don’t ask for all their assets, I don’t want to control all of their finances.
  • I free them from greed and panic. ?let me adjust risk to market conditions, and we will do well.
  • Transparency. ?My fee is my only income.
  • In general, my performance has exceeded the market in the past. ?There is nothing that says it will be true in the future.
  • I’m not going to lie to clients?or deceive them. ?After all, 80%+?of my own liquid assets?are on the line with them?in the same proportion– clients get a clone of my portfolio.

My clients get peace of mind. ?I am focused on improving my own wealth, and they travel along with me. ?My interests are entirely aligned with theirs.

I do think that all of us should have an attitude of service toward others. ?It makes for a better society, and better business practices. ?Beyond that, Jesus said, “Do to others what you would have them do to you.” ?Everyone wants good service, well, go deliver good service. ?The world will be better, and you will be happier with your own life. ?After all, no one is truly happy who cheats others in order to prosper.

On Bond Risks in the Short-Run

On Bond Risks in the Short-Run

From a letter from a reader:

Hi David,

I’ve been following your blog for the last few months and the articles are extremely insightful.

I’ve been working with fixed income credit trading the last few years but I feel that I have not been measuring risk well. I only look at cash bonds

Right now I’m only looking at DV01 and CR01, but my gut tells me that there’s a lot more to risk monitoring that can be done on a basic cash bond portfolio.

From your experience as a bond portfolio manager, what other risk metrics have you found useful?

I’d really appreciate if there were a few pointers you could give or just a trail that you could show me and I’ll follow it.

First, some definitions:

Basis Point [bp]: 0.01% — one one-hundredth of a percent. ?If you have $10,000 in a money-market fund, and they pay one basis point of interest per year, at the end of the year you will have $10,001. ?In this environment, that’s not uncommon.

DV01:?A?bond valuation?calculation?showing the?dollar?value?of a one?basis point?increase or?decrease?in?interest rates. It shows the?change?in a?bond’s?price?compared to a decrease in the bond’s?yield.

CR01: Credit Sensitivity ? Credit Default Swap [CDS] price change for 1bp shift in Credit par spread — same as DV01, but applied to CDS instead of a bond.

Now, onto the advice: when you manage bonds, the first thing you have to do is understand your time horizon. ?Is it days, weeks, months, or years? ?When I managed bonds for a life insurer 1998-2003, the answer was years. ?Many years, because the liabilities were long. ?That gave me a lot of room to maneuver. ?You sound like you are on a short leash. ?Maybe you have a month as your time horizon.

When the time horizon is short, the possibilities for easy profits are few, and here are a few ideas:

1) Momentum: yes, it works in the bond market also. ?Own bonds that are rising, and sell those that are falling. ?Be sensitive to turning points, and review the relative strength index.

2) Stick with sectors that are outperforming. ?Neglect those that underperform.

3) If you have significant research that has a differential insight on a bond, pursue it with a small amount of money if it may take a while. ?If the change might happen soon, increase the position.

4) Try to understand when CDS is rich or cheap vs cash bonds by issuer. ?Look at the price history, and commit capital when pricing is significantly in your favor.

5) Set spread?targets for your investing. ?Decide on levels where you would commit minimum, normal, and maximum funds. ?Be generous with the maximum level, because markets are more volatile than most imagine.

6) Look at the criteria for my one-minute drill:?http://alephblog.com/2010/07/17/the-education-of-a-corporate-bond-manager-part-ii/

(and look at the end of the piece, but the whole piece/series has value.)

7) Analyze common factors in your portfolio, and ask whether those are risks you want to take:

  • Industry risks
  • Duration risks
  • Counterparty risks

8 ) Look at the stock. ?If it is behaving well, the bonds will follow.

Maybe your best bet is to trade CDS versus cash bonds, if the spread is thick enough to do so. ?If not, I would encourage you to talk with more senior ?traders to ask them how they survive. ?Trading is a tough game, and I do not envy being a trader.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

  • Q&A w/Bill White – former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements?http://t.co/EoDdKnoD4x?Worth a read, still bearish $$?Jun 07, 2014
  • China City Crash-Lands to Zero Growth on Coal Bust?http://t.co/sROcEjLThJ?For Taiyaun, it is a coaled, cruel world $$ $KOL $FXI?Jun 06, 2014
  • Welcome to Baku, the Fiercely Modern, Millennia-Old, Capitalist-Socialist, Filthy-Rich Capital of Azerbaijan?http://t.co/SCr1Yyb1o5?LONG $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Swiss Garbage Police Irk Foreigners Reeling After Vote?http://t.co/a2Nul3KysI?Picky, piddly, part of what makes Swizerland unique $$ $SZE?Jun 06, 2014
  • China Central Bank Calls for More-Targeted Loosening Measures?http://t.co/fwKv9QQcTa?Central banks r not good @ micromanaging an economy $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • China?s Rare Earth Toxic Time Bomb to Spur Mining Boom?http://t.co/XWrbnSKptk?That’s a boom outside of China, as econ policy raises costs $$?Jun 05, 2014
  • Obama Pledges to Bolster Europe’s Security?http://t.co/XYVI5Bi9p1?I’m not 4 entangling alliances, but really only $1B 4 E. Europe?! $$ $SPY?Jun 05, 2014
  • Dai-ichi to Buy Protective Life?http://t.co/rxdOapKZth?When Japanese life cos buy American life cos they overpay; this 1 is colossal $$ $PL?Jun 04, 2014
  • Cameron Threatened as ?People?s Army? Marches on Newark?http://t.co/GZQ4fIdnWR?UK independence Party: anit-EU, anti-immigrant, anti-Tory $$?Jun 04, 2014
  • Putin Pausing as Russia Volatility Kills Trade-to-Invest?http://t.co/jZhiKnR8t1?Whaddaya know? Maybe the sanctions do have some bite $$?Jun 04, 2014
  • China Builds Sulawesi Smelters as Ore Ban Cuts Jobs?http://t.co/yXCVATdl5l?Unemploy a lot of miners 2 create inefficient smelting jobs $$?Jun 03, 2014

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Companies & Industries

  • It’s Watershed v Pipeline in Latest Fracking Battle?http://t.co/D9kHxY9Xmf?High-Profile Spills Prompt Water Utilities to Fight Pipelines $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Amazon Feud With Publishers to Escalate as Contracts End?http://t.co/KRe3cWvSw8?Dominance of $AMZN especially in e-books vexes publishers $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Buffett?s $26B Power Bet in West Seen Paying Off?http://t.co/CZkw7nlZwB?Needed infrastructure financed by insurance premiums: brilliant $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Wells Fargo Requires Principal With Home-Equity Payments?http://t.co/zeNbOeBGhg?Good practice 2 require principal amortization $$ FD: + $WFC?Jun 05, 2014
  • US refiners struggle with too much light crude?http://t.co/PcA1I4gymX?Light crude is more volatile; difficult to separate the light stuff $$?Jun 04, 2014
  • Abbott CFO: How and Why to Spin Off?http://t.co/ZLgszwAgRM?Explanation of how & why the spinoff unlocked a lot of value $ABT $ABBV $$?Jun 02, 2014

 

US Politics & Policy?

  • U.S. Workers’ Productivity Falters?http://t.co/XKmjss5R6o?First-Quarter Decline, Worst in 6 Years, Comes as Job Market Heals $$ $MACRO $SPY?Jun 06, 2014
  • Service Industries Propel Broad Rebound in US Growth?http://t.co/Sx8JzPi28F?Let’s see how well this persists $$ $MACRO?Jun 05, 2014
  • Smoke and Mirrors Hide the Collapse in Corporate Profits?http://t.co/tKzMwwAKF8?Economy-wide profits take a hit in the revision of GDP $$?Jun 05, 2014
  • Obama’s Next Fed Fight?http://t.co/wMrsvbkqA2?Why Michael Barr will be just as unacceptable to progressives as Larry Summers $$ $TLT $SPY?Jun 05, 2014
  • Now Who Wants to Change the Constitution?http://t.co/tD35tVeQTj?@CassSunstein I would prefer my anti-gerrymandering amendment $$ $TLT $SPY?Jun 05, 2014
  • Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency?http://t.co/tv1RsY2LLP?Go ahead, Fed: Raise Fed Funds by 0.1% & c how mkt reacts $$ #blammo?Jun 04, 2014
  • Growing Student Debt Focus of Senate Hearings Today?http://t.co/4rUJrpv7LY?Expensive colleges extract more $$ from students, parents, govt?Jun 04, 2014
  • Waiting game: Why small businesses won’t hire?http://t.co/8LZXP8YqUg?Workforces r not overloaded; if demand really picks up then hire $$?Jun 04, 2014

 

Market Impact

  • Morgan Stanley Is Said to Cut London Fixed-Income Traders?http://t.co/W29BnWm9nU?Not enough action for $MS 2 pay in an illiquid market $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Hedge Funds Betting on Calm as Volatility Shorts Increase?http://t.co/vmUQXsSdbB?I get worried when I c exotic side bets grow $$ $SPY $VIX?Jun 06, 2014
  • Wall Street Adjusts to the New Trading Normal?http://t.co/41Lzn1AJFA?Transaction Volume in May Fell 2 Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Dueling Indexes: A Big Name Is # 2 in Returns?http://t.co/dltXFxHPeU?Russell 2000 trails enhanced index S&P600. $IWM $IJR Earnings/float $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • different this time?http://t.co/BGJ7SSKS3D?@researchpuzzler on the delusions of chasing returns late in this current bull market $$ $SPY?Jun 06, 2014
  • Kass: Prepare for a Minsky Moment?http://t.co/fP2m7jtyJk?@DougKass tells us 2b concerned about the low volume accompanying the new highs $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Hedge-Fund Wolfpack Stalks Financials as Alpha Pangs Grow?http://t.co/B28wHitYlQ?Got utilities & other yield sensitive sectors? NO? $$ $XLU?Jun 06, 2014
  • The unglamorous life of hedge fund startups?http://t.co/g2rjcehsT3) @JesseSolomonCNN meets w/ @allstarcharts -> lots of work to do $$ $SPY?Jun 06, 2014
  • Value Funds Are Beating Growth-Stock Funds This Year?http://t.co/D1yoMyPN8U?This is true most years, nice 2feel the wind @ my back $$ $SPY?Jun 05, 2014
  • Fresh Records Get Stale With S&P 500 Volume at 6-Year Low?http://t.co/oeu4OnFmkK?Volume is low & few stocks are reaching new highs $$ $SPY?Jun 05, 2014
  • Word Power: A New Approach for Content Analysis?http://t.co/DAd7cyppAF?10K filed, language sounds cautious 2 the computer which sells $$?Jun 05, 2014
  • Unstoppable $100T Bond Market Renders Models Useless?http://t.co/GAU74xkHdt?Many bonds forced into being via QE, spread relationship hurt $$?Jun 04, 2014
  • Bond Bankers Have 144 Reasons to Fret Over Underwriting Frenzy?http://t.co/66VsCIy8ct?Top 9 banks have lower mkt share & fees then past $$?Jun 04, 2014
  • Fortress Tries ?Nuclear Option? for Trups CDOs?http://t.co/RkavoJkPYW?American Back hasn’t paid in 5 years; Fortress takes it to BK court $$?Jun 03, 2014
  • Are Stocks Expensive? The 2 Perspectives?http://t.co/uVHaq4Tlsu?On an intrinsic basis, yes. Can the market go up anyway? Yes. Safely? No $$?Jun 03, 2014
  • Icahn won?t be joining the Mount Rushmore of insider trading?http://t.co/HJOOM0ez3Y?This one is overblown in terms of facts & size $$ $IEP?Jun 03, 2014
  • What investors must know about new accounting rules?http://t.co/Mx6FONELtv?It still doesn’t eliminate uncertainty from earnings accruals $$?Jun 03, 2014
  • Investors Rewarded for Trek Into Little Known Markets?http://t.co/VW6N768dUz?I wouldn’t put much trust in the low vol argument; looks odd $$?Jun 02, 2014

 

Other

  • With His Eye on the World Cup, Soccer Coach Jurgen Klinsmann Overhauls Team USA?http://t.co/GKnao1ZmtR?New attacking style fits Americans $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • In Search of America’s Best Burrito?http://t.co/RaCIa2nXBc?via @fivethirtyeight Visit “The Well Dressed Burrito” in Washington, DC #cult?Jun 06, 2014
  • New Chip to Bring Holograms to Smartphones?http://t.co/KaWS9b8T5H?Ostendo’s Tiny Projectors r Made 2Display Video, Glasses-Free 3D Images $$?Jun 05, 2014
  • No Pain, No Gain, as Tattoo Regret Fueling Laser Removals?http://t.co/GHS89tzV4A?New pico-second lasers remove tattoos w/moderate pain $$?Jun 04, 2014

 

Wrong

  • Maybe not: This Time, Russia-China Alliance Will Last?@BloombergView?http://t.co/NYNTGV1mH3?Cultural alignment is lacking; econ not enuf $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • Wrong: Hydrogen Fuel Finally Graduating From Lab to City Streets?http://t.co/lkboflU5Sr??I usually call them ?fool cells.?? – Elon Musk $$?Jun 06, 2014
  • What New College Grads Need To Know About Money?http://t.co/mJpL4ckJoa?Disagree. If renter’s insurance optional, take the risk, don’t buy $$?Jun 04, 2014

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Comments, Replies, and Retweets

  • RT @derekhernquist: bookmarked “Investment Mgmt: A Science to Teach or an Art to Learn” via @cfainvestored HT @alephblog?http://t.co/ozoStZ??Jun 05, 2014
  • RT @susanweiner: Financial #blogging insights from David Merkel of @AlephBlog?http://t.co/PVhL3tX9yq?Jun 05, 2014

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