November 2008 through January 2009 was a rough period.? The markets were in chaos.? My best posts I will categorize for your benefit:
Criticism of Government and Central Bank Policy
- The Humility of Realism
- The Humility of Realism, Redux
- Bailouts Must Be Odious
- Failure to Admit Failure
- Issuing Debt for as Long as Our Republic Will Last
- The More Things Change, The More They Remain The Same
- The Progress of Debt
- A New Goal For TARP Money: Create Mutual Banks
- The Humility of Realism ? II
- Ten Takeaways from the Greenspan Years
- Against Bank Nationalization
As the crisis hit, the government was not willing to reconcile bad debts, but insisted on on putting off pain.? Though Depression was staved off, it came with a price, which includes a future depression.
The Crisis
- What is a Depression?
- ?There doesn?t seem to be a fundamental reason why.?
- Broken?
- Start a Rating Agency, Why Don?t You?
- Financial History is Valuable
- Spot the Three Currency Regimes
As many grasped at straws, the crisis was best understood as too much debt, and because that was not a part of the neoclassical economists’ playbook, they floundered, having no idea of why the crisis was occurring.
Investment Ideas
- Sell Stocks, Buy Corporate Bonds
- The Occasional Seemingly Free Lunch
- GE Does Not Bring Good Things For Your Life
- What To Do?
- Momentum in the S&P 500
- Hidden Credit Risk in Currency Funds
- A Different Look at Industry Momentum
- A Different Look at Industry Momentum ? II
Many good ideas for how to play the market in a depressed state.? The call to buy junk bonds was a very good call.
Other Topics:
The Biggest, Baddest Bubble of Them All
Why entitlements are the weak link in the US economy.
Fair Value Accounting ? It Is What It Is
Why fair value accounting if properly done, is the best method for accounting.
Public Pension Plans Doubling Down
Public pension plans had a naive faith in the power of equities.
Waiting for the Death of the Chicago School, and the Keynesian School also
Most economists don’t have their heads screwed on straight.? It is only a matter of time before the view of economists change to more of an Austrian or Minsky perspective.? Oh yeah, and the Santa Fe Institute…
Past economic relationships disappoint.
Liquidity Management is the First Priority of Risk Management
Very basic stuff, because cash flow is the life of a business.
Bicycle Stability Versus Table Stability ? II
Real stability means that you don’t have to take any action in order to preserve value.
Got a lot of flak from this piece, but I still stand behind it.? Black swans are created by those that think a financial trend can continue indefinitely.
David, do you find it ironic that in writing your own “best of” list of your own blogs, the first two are about humility? In a category devoted to criticism?
1 Cor. 10:12 comes to mind…
I find it funny Doug, but the Humility of Realism is meant to be the opposite of the Audacity of Hope.
Our government pursued hyper-stimulative policies for years, encouraged debt, and thought that could manipulate us into a permanent prosperity. Instead, we get into a liquidity trap, with no good way out. The humility of realism properly criticizes those who think they can get something for nothing.
If 1Cor 10:12 fits me there, I don’t see how.
Maybe I should have cited Pb 27:2–“Let another praise you, and not your own mouth.” The irony of writing your own “best of” blog and focusing on humility is … ironic?
To be specific: you’re highly critical of our political leaders and policy options as “getting something for nothing,” yet dismissive of the work of Fama and French that show “outperformance” is often just risk-taking that got lucky. Have you applied the universal acid of “humble realism” to your own portfolio management rules? How long have you been picking stocks?
The good thing about this business is that if someone isn’t humble about their performance, we only need to wait and watch. They either get humble or get out.
Too bad it doesn’t seem to work that way with government.
Doug, a number of people asked me to pick out a “best of” my blog.
I’ve been picking stocks for 20 years, and generally, I have done well at it. For the limited time I was at TheStreet.com, I was regarded as one of the better stock-pickers by Validea. If you are interested, I can send you an attestation of my performance from a third party accounting firm.
As for Fama-French, I am not sure what you are talking about.
I write the “best of” as a service. I use it for others who want a shortcut to my past.
I still don’t get where you are coming from, though. I sense some irritation about what I believe that is not clear to me. Perhaps a disagreement over first principles?
Look, I write this blog as a way of giving back. That’s the main reason why I write it. It does not make me money. It does not help my business much. When I write a “best of” post, it is done for altruistic reasons. I may be wrong, but I don’t have bad intent.