Month: March 2012

Dishonest Annuity Advertisement

Dishonest Annuity Advertisement

Those that have read me for a long time know that I am a proponent of immediate annuities.? Though they pay a fixed stream of income, they are more useful than bonds, because they provide longevity insurance; they can be tailored to prove an income that you can’t outlive, for you and your spouse.

But I got really annoyed when I saw an ad that said the following:

  • 7% Income Guaranteed
  • No RISK of Principal

And if you click on it, it takes you here, where they talk about 8%+ returns.? Total garbage.

Yes, if you are old enough, when you buy an immediate annuity, the annual payment may be 7% or more than the amount that you gave to the insurance company.? But with the yield on long low-investment grade bonds? hovering above 5%, I can tell you with certainty as a life actuary that the life companies are not providing a 7% return to retirees — it is far, far less, more like 4%, or maybe less.

So why the difference?? Immediate annuities work off of the idea that a lot of people will die, and money from their annuities is reallocated to the living (minus a profit for the insurer, on average).? The insurer earns 4.5% on its investments, and additional money of 3.5-5.0% from deaths of annuitants supports the payments of those living, with 1% to cover commissions, administration, and profits.

So, they advertise that they are paying you 7-8%+, when they are really paying you 4.0-4.5%, and exposing you to the risk of inflation, because that payment will never rise.? Ask them for payout levels on inflation-adjusted immediate annuities, and watch your jaw drop as you see how relatively low the payments are.

This is dishonest advertising, because not only are they not giving you the true level of returns, but they tell you there is no risk of principal.? Guess what, though I like immediate annuities, the only reason there is no risk of principal with them is that you surrender your principal when you buy one.? Your principal is gone, and you have a payment stream that will disappear at death (or death of you and your spouse).

This advertisement was probably put together by an independent agency, but blame still goes to the insurers that allowed themselves to be involved in such a scam:

  • Allianz
  • Aviva
  • Fidelity Investments
  • Genworth Financial
  • ING
  • Metlife
  • Midland National
  • New York Life
  • Pacific Life
  • Prudential (US)

Shame on all of you.? This is deceptive advertising that defrauds those who trust the representations of your agent.? State Insurance Commissioners, please take note.

If something seems too good to be true, it usually is, and this is another example of that.

Redacted Version of the March 2012 FOMC Statement

Redacted Version of the March 2012 FOMC Statement

January 2012 March 2012 Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately.

 

No real change, deletes comment about slowing global growth, which is still slowing.
While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. The unemployment rate is down, but few jobs are being created, and people are dropping out of the labor force.? The improvement isn?t that large.
Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Shades up their view on business investment.
Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. True for the last few months for goods & services prices, but past isn?t prologue.? TIPS are showing higher inflation expectations.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. No change.? Mentions of the statutory mandate are always meant to hide the distasteful aspects of what they do.
The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. No change.
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. No real change.? The strains in Spain fall mainly on the plain banks.
The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate. Adds language noting the rise in energy prices, but don?t worry, because monetary policy will fix that.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. No change.
In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. No change.
The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. No change.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. No change for the Apostles of Central Bank unorthodox asset management policies.
Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014. No real change.? Nice for there to be some dissent.

?

Comments

  • No significant changes from last time.? They do note that energy prices are rising, but they don?t see that affecting inflation.
  • In my opinion, I don?t think holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself.
  • Also, the reinvestment in Agency MBS should have limited impact because so many owners are inverted, or ineligible for financing backed by the GSEs, and implicitly the government, even with the recently announced refinancing changes.
  • The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.? As a result, the FOMC ain?t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.? Labor employment is the key metric.
  • The Fed is out of good policy tools, so it will use bad policy tools instead, and for longer than before.
  • Do they want the yield on 30 year TIPS to go negative?? Looks that way.
  • GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers.? Inflation has moderated, but whether it will stay that way is another question.

Questions for Dr. Bernanke:

  • Is it possible that you don?t really know what would have worked to solve the Great Depression, and you are just committing an entirely new error that will result in a larger problem for us later?
  • Why do think extending the period of accommodation by a little more than a year will have any significant effect on the economy, aside from stock and bond prices?
  • Discouraged workers are a large factor in the falling unemployment rate. Why do you think the economy is doing well?
  • Couldn?t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets?
  • Why do you think that holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself?
  • Why will reinvestment in Agency MBS help the economy significantly?? Doesn?t that only help solvent borrowers on the low end of housing, who don?t really need the help?
  • Isn?t stagflation a possibility here?? I mean, no one expected it in the ?70s either.
  • Could we end up with another debt bubble from keeping short rates so low?
  • If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks?
The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 14

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 14

This period of the Aleph Blog covers May through July of 2010.? The one big series that I started in that era was “The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager” series.? The idea was to describe how a neophyte was thrust into an unusual position and thrived, after some difficulties.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part I

How I learned the basics, and survived 9/11.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part II

How I learned to trade bonds, and engage in intelligent price discovery.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part III

What is the new issue bond allocation process like, and what games get played around it?

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part IV

On the games that can be played in dealing with brokers.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part V

On selling hot sectors, and dealing with the dirty details of unusual bonds.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VI

On dealing with ignorant clients, and taking out-of-consensus risks.

Then there was the continuation of “The Rules” series:

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart A

On the biases the come from yield-seeking.

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart B

Repeat after me, “Yield is not free.”

The Rules, Part XIII, subpart C

Reaching for yield always has risks, but the penalties are most intense at the top of the cycle, when credit spreads are tight, and the Fed?s loosening cycle is nearing its end.? It is at that point that a good bond manager tosses as much risk as he can overboard without bringing yield so low that his client screams.

The Rules, Part XV

Securitization segments a security into liquid and illiquid components.

The Rules, Part XVI

Governments are smaller than markets; markets are smaller than cultures.

A fundamental rule of mine, but one with a lot of punch.

The Rules, Part XVII

On the differences between panics and booms.

The Journal of Failed Finance Research

Much research fails quietly, but other researchers don’t learn about the dead ends.? Better that they should learn of the failures, and avoid the dead ends.

How I Minimize Taxes on my Stock Investing

Sell low tax cost lots and donate appreciated stock to charities.

Place Political Limits on Overly Compliant Central Banks

Gives a simple rule to control central banks so that they avoid the present troubles.

Yield, the Oldest Scam in the Books

Yes, offering yield is the oldest way to trick people into handing over their money.

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A good place to get started if one wants to get up to speed on insurance stocks, but there is a lot there.

Economics is Hard; the Bad Assumptions of Economists Makes it Harder

Going over Kartik Athreya?s letter criticizing nonprofessional economics bloggers.? Why the math behind macroeconomics and microeconomics doesn’t work.

Why Are We The Lucky Ones?

When you are a part of a small broker-dealer, all manner of harebrained deals get offered to you.? This explores three of them.? Note: management did not ask my opinion on the fourth deal, and that is a large part of why they no longer exist.

One more note: the guy who was going to pledge $5 million of stock in example 2 for a $1 million loan?? The stock is worth $7,000 today.

Watch the State of the States

The economics of the states tells us a lot more about the national health because they can’t print money to buy national debts.? (Though they can can raid accrual accounts…)

We Might Be Dead In The Long-Run, But What Do We Leave Our Children?

My view is that neoclassical economists are wrong.? Aggregate demand has failed for four reasons:

  1. Overleveraged consumers will not readily buy.
  2. Citizens of overleveraged governments will not readily spend, for fear of what may come later from the taxman, or from fear of future unemployment.
  3. Aggregate demand is mean-reverting.? It overshot because of the buildup of debt, and is now in the process of returning to more sustainable levels.? The same is true of private debt levels, which are being reduced to levels that will allow consumers to buy more freely once again.
  4. When the financial system is in trouble, people get skittish.

The Market Goes to the Dogs, Which Chase Their Tail Risk

Complex and expensive hedging solutions, many of which embed some credit risk, can be less effective than lowering leverage, and (horrors) holding some cash.

Fishing at a Paradox. No Toil, No Thrift, No Fish, No Paradox.

This one had its detractors, because I believe the paradox of thrift is wrong.? Too much aggregation, and it does not allow the dynamism of the economy to adjust over time, even from severe conditions.

11.0010010000111111011010101000100010000101101000110000100011010011

11.0010010000111111011010101000100010000101101000110000100011010011

For fun, I decided to try running a test on the constant we call Pi in binary form [note headline].? Pi is the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter.? It is many more things as well.? It is a unique number in mathematics.? As Linus said to Charlie Brown after meeting the kid named “Five,” “How about the name 3.14159?”? Charlie Brown says, “I think there are a lot of kids who would be named 3.14159.” (From memory, I could have botched it.)

I found on the web the first 2^15th power (32,768) binary digits for the “fractional” part of Pi. In decimal terms, it means Pi to a little more than 10,000 decimal places.

Pi is an irrational number.? That means it can’t be expressed as a fraction of two integers.? As such, in binary form, since the series does not terminate, the pattern of ones and zeroes should be random.? As such, we can do a “runs test” to see whether the number of runs is abnormal.? Too few runs: zeroes and ones alternate too frequently.? Too many runs: zeroes and ones do not alternate enough.

My expectation was that neither abnormality would occur.? But I had to follow the data to the conclusion.? As it the first 32,768 digits of Pi, it had too many runs, such that the probability of it being random was 1.26%.

I don’t know what to do with this, but my next experiment will be on the number e, 2.71828…

I’m good with math, but not great with it.? Advice is welcome…

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Here’s the news of the past week:

US Economy

 

  • How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate http://t.co/g6E4KxV5 I agree inf is understated, but by 1-2%, not 6-8%/yr $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tax Hunt Pushes Global Wealthy Into Offshore Trusts for Children in US http://t.co/l53hjFH1 Many clever ways 2cheat the taxman #thinkahead Mar 07, 2012
  • How Much Do Income Taxes Affect Our Behavior? http://t.co/mADKt7a7 Answer: not much, but people favor lower marginal tax rates anyway $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • On Politics, Social Security and Spine http://t.co/N8O1Eu6h @brucekrasting on the Disability Income Trust & what it implies 4 politics $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Why Young People Might (Eventually) Like to Buy a House http://t.co/yC9FX7H5 On the low end, this makes sense at present. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Getting Ready to Buy a House http://t.co/6aqzzPmI Megan McArdle notes how low down payments r still prevalent; system not clean @ present $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Warren Buffett vs. the profiteers of doom http://t.co/02XgQ9tB Unless the US fails in entire, Buffett will be right & the scaremongers wrong Mar 06, 2012
  • NACM credit managers’ index trade credit increase http://t.co/LUdFkYTZ Businesses r more confident in extending credit; coincident indicator Mar 04, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel Then they are having materially better performance than the FHA; I still think housing prices have further to fall on hi end Mar 04, 2012
  • Your Share of Fannie, Freddie Losses: $1,300 http://t.co/h9KdR5d3 Even considering what they are paying the US in dividends, they lose. $$ Mar 03, 2012

?

Federal Reserve

  • @GonzaloLiraSPG Borrow, not print. Fed becomes huge hedge fund 2 arb risky debt spreads. Not in favor of this, but it is happening in small Mar 09, 2012
  • Thought experiment: What would happen if the Fed borrowed enough money to buy up all of the MBS, CMBS, ABS, Agys, Corps, Munis, etc? $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • What the Fed is Considering Doing in Layman’s Terms http://t.co/dXZTMXL2 Levering up, taking more risk in an effort to reduce long yields $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment http://t.co/AyixImcf Fed is asymmetric, only fights unemployment Mar 08, 2012
  • http://t.co/DR8SLua2 NY Fed never buys the on-the-run and near the run nominal bonds, does the opposite for TIPS, pushes up implied CPI $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Fed?s Money Monopoly Endangers Liberty and Peace http://t.co/TGhcvm8O Unsound money encourage governments 2b graspy & warlike $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Central bank policy driving corporate spreads http://t.co/YvV1djQb When the Fed offers cheap financing, risk asset flourish $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Woodlands congressman battling Federal Reserve’s power http://t.co/iUiwTimH Inflation only, expand role of Regional Feds; Fisher likes it $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • The eventual unwinding of QE: why it?s ignored and what it could mean http://t.co/BPRMaGaU The Fed will be reluctant 2 shrink the Bal Sht $$ Mar 03, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight http://t.co/0y5znzjH So u can’t get inflation thru debt growth? Mar 09, 2012
  • Bond And CDS Arbitrage Opportunities? http://t.co/uRDRh59G Sov CDS “cheap” 2 bonds b/c of a lack of trust in the default trigger $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Portugal. Boo! http://t.co/ZED0TWOx Mar 09, 2012
  • Draghi Headache: Inflation Heating Up in Europe http://t.co/RQqvvOiC Draghi raised the 2012 forecasts for inflation to 2.1%-2.7% $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB http://t.co/trwAlyWm Wise Buba will take pain where ECB wil not. Follow this it will destroy Mar 08, 2012
  • Goldman?s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners http://t.co/eMzOvs2X When u conspire 2b shady, u work w/the shady, who will cheat u2 $GS $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • French-German Border Shapes More Than Territoryhttp://nyti.ms/zDuqpi Culture matters. Policy matters. Similar people yield different results Mar 06, 2012
  • Everyone Loves Mario http://t.co/2sDYYNXh Draghi is popular at present, but this will not end well, b/c bank dependence on the ECB will tell Mar 04, 2012
  • The optimistic view of Europe http://t.co/xtsVrfrY Rogoff argues that these are the birth pangs of the USE: the United States of Europe $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • IMF Set to Curb Funds for Greece http://t.co/XvNhtAcm IMF has 2 much exposure to EZ-fringe; could it b global system hit peak debt? $$ Mar 04, 2012

?

Economics

 

  • An interesting model of asset bubbles http://t.co/cHcFGHht Follows the debt-fueled model of asset bubbles, with momentum tossed in $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Model Thinking Notes I from Stanford Class http://t.co/qHD0UCzt Those applying models to political questions predict better than others $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Investors Crave a Taste of the Island http://t.co/fjWsoVDR Amazing how reducing deficits and cleaning up finances can bring growth $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Cicero quote of the week http://t.co/Y1e6KKYL The budget should b balanced, the Treasury should b refilled, public debt should b reduced… Mar 08, 2012
  • Kindleberger?s Universal Bubble and Crash Scenario http://t.co/Og2VYsX8 We are overindebted, should we be surprised that we face a crisis? Mar 08, 2012
  • After 3 years, we?re all hooked on free money http://t.co/oKRDzSPD Low base rates are creating a new kind of inflation, sad but true $$ Mar 08, 2012

 

China

 

  • Contra: China Inflation May Provide Room for Stimulus http://t.co/Qds1uBwx That is, if you can believe the Chinese inflation statistics $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Asian banks may b bust; tiger still bites http://t.co/2mW40PMJ Economic consultancy Lombard Street warned China is financial house of cards Mar 08, 2012
  • According to Credit Suisse, the global commodity demand has peaked http://t.co/GNXsHZwL China cannot increase its demand further $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • China Life Discount Swells on World Growth Woes http://t.co/Jl27DtCk I still don’t get China Life and its business model; avoid b careful Mar 08, 2012
  • China needs to enhance ability to win ‘local wars’, Premier says http://t.co/THUVeHVe Dominance of the South China Sea is desired $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • China?s State of the Union http://t.co/D2E2yaH0 China has fewer options by the day. GDP is shrinking because much production is worthless $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • +1 $$ RT @The_Analyst: @AlephBlog ha, newsflash: people whose livlihood depends on strong real estate market say market is strong… Mar 04, 2012
  • End of The World not nigh, say developers http://t.co/JTDwPtT3 A lot of cross-currents in Chinese property markets, suspect trouble $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • China?s Politics in Rare Bloom http://t.co/kmDFW8ou A rare season where the hidden politics of China become publicly visible $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • ‘Internet-in-a-Suitcase’: The Web Technology That Wants You to Be Free http://t.co/UXTNOHDo Not live yet, but coming 2a revolution near u Mar 09, 2012
  • Wal-Mart Therapy Tried as Pentagon Copes With Traumatized Troops http://t.co/7YIU2yqJ long $WMT | PTSD? Trips 2 WMT may help, really. $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US public schools sell empty classroom seats abroad http://t.co/qTuefNqV Solves a tough problem 4 rural districts w/falling enrollment $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • US Top Destination for Christian, Buddhist Immigrants, Study Says http://t.co/gZW6T62o Interesting commentary on religion & migration $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • The Confucius quote is a lot like Hillel’s “Do not do unto others what you would not hav… http://t.co/XplJNuew Mar 07, 2012
  • RE: @dcrothers This is too important to be left to preschools only. Mothers and fathers must take an active role in t? http://t.co/4je2nZj2 Mar 06, 2012

 

Markets

 

  • Insurers to re-examine risk, capital structure in 2012 – PwC http://t.co/1Cl8bTc1 Low ins co valuations begets low interest for M&A $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Contra: Apollo Wants to ?Be the New Bank? in 2012, Co-Founder Rowan Says http://t.co/HjfMo5xx Might work in short-run; dangerous idea $$ Mar 09, 2012
  • Tactical asset allocation — Another ripoff http://t.co/NVCwvCCQ During bear markets, TAA gains temporary cache as market timing $$ Mar 08, 2012
  • Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading http://t.co/618YZMAB Most of the time, trading leads to losses, people like the illusion of control Mar 08, 2012
  • Trade to improve your portfolio http://t.co/fINnnvh1 Features thoughts of those who agree. When will average people listen to the good guys? Mar 08, 2012
  • The mystery of the vanishing stock trader http://t.co/y0jvQ6F8 Volume is disappearing in Canada. That’s probably healthy; buy Canada $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • @CflGator My simple solution to all of that is that only hedgers may initiate trades, speculators may not trade with speculators. $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Contra: Managed money goes LONG oil http://t.co/SartTMgC In mid-2008, there weren’t as many speculative longs & the price was far higher $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Companies Float Up to $20 Billion in Bonds http://t.co/CJTnGiTE If that much is getting digested easily, maybe the corp rally continues Mar 07, 2012
  • @lcsonka39 @hedgefundinvest I did use the words “if” and “maybe.” I am far enough away that I’m not sure, but I have been through that b4 $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • US Insurers Face $2 Billion in Claims From Tornadoes, Risk Modeler Says http://t.co/N6vW1uIn I would expect a rough weather year $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • IBM?s Watson Computer Gets Wall Street Job http://t.co/qP2mlQDZ Bloodless. Soulless. Brilliant. Ultimate Risk Manager or Disaster Creator Mar 07, 2012
  • Judge: Jefferson County Chapter 9 Case Can Continue http://t.co/MGn2sDTD Remember Ch 9 only gives breathing room, Empee benes relief $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? http://t.co/FlPMNBXN Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend Mar 06, 2012
  • How To Make Financial Content http://t.co/NRLLm00B Funny takes from @reformedbroker on how various news organizations write their copy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns http://t.co/yDXh8J8C Arnott makes u look at the real economy $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Stocks Cheaper Than Any U.S. Peak in 23 Years http://t.co/wZAnn7Ij Key Q: what will profit margins do? Only will 2 use capital is scarce Mar 06, 2012
  • Milwaukee?s Home-Grown Managers Shun Fads http://t.co/oSzOOjMh My hometown. People there are rational and not given to fads. $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Dan Zwirn, the Man Who Fell to Earth http://t.co/NmgWpqRm Grew hedge fund fast, inadequate operational support, scandal, business dies $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

International (rest of the world)

 

  • One Year Later, Japan City Sees Light?in a Long Tunnel http://t.co/3JfbCqWG Too much $$ being tossed at too few people in short-run Mar 09, 2012
  • Australian vs Canadian property http://t.co/7Q3pdBP1 Argues that Canada is in trouble, Australia in worse shape but a better economy for now Mar 07, 2012
  • Faros Trading: Yen to Weaken http://t.co/cSAp3Fra & http://t.co/aJkOCcXQ Idea that the yen may weaken is gaining traction $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • Canadian envoy to Iceland sparks loonie controversy http://t.co/QZfE9Kvi Hey, I would link to the loonie if I could, smart idea $$ Mar 06, 2012
  • BRIC Investors Losing as Statists Forgo Earnings http://t.co/kuntGmOJ Worrisome trend, but political influence on firms tends 2b cyclical Mar 04, 2012
  • Why Japan Is Looking Good http://t.co/trw811WG Argues that QE weakens the yen, leading to better corp performance of f low valuation $$ Mar 04, 2012
  • London Is Eating New York?s Lunch http://t.co/UBEFijF7 London has a greater share of international transactions; New York too regulated $$ Mar 04, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God’ http://t.co/Q0VS1qRV Whom God would destroy, he first makes proud #hubris $$ Mar 07, 2012
  • Paralyzed Kids Employ Florida Lobbyists With Millions at Stake http://t.co/fmS5UIHu When there r damage caps, pleading 4 special exceptions Mar 07, 2012
  • Hoping for a deadlocked convention that turns to Huckabee, or someone like him http://t.co/OCRBjpXF Mar 03, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense I do not trust Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. They change positions too easily. I may not like everything about Huckabee+ Mar 04, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense or Ron Paul, but they don’t shift their views as much. Huckabee would be acceptable to both wings of the GOP. $$ Mar 04, 2012
Peak Government Debt

Peak Government Debt

We’re in an interesting situation where most developed country governments are borrowing at a rapid rate, and their central banks are financing it.? Public old age retirement and health plans are underfunded.? Most major developed countries can’t grow rapidly, and there’s really nothing that can be done about it — competition from cheaper labor in developing countries is forcing developed country wages down.? We can’t grow out of the debt.

We wait for the tipping point.? When will investor sentiment change from believing debts will be paid in equivalent purchasing power, to believing that they will not get paid back in equivalent purchasing power terms?

Greece is past the tipping point.? Other nations in Europe teeter.? Is Japan nearing such a point?? They rejoice to see the Yen weakening as the BOJ finances the government deficit.? Be careful what you wish for, Japan — what is good in small, can become self-reinforcing if lenders lose confidence in the Japanese government.

Part of the trouble is with central banks repressing savers, deficits are considerably lower than they otherwise would be because short bond yields are low.? If rates rose, deficits would begin to rise gradually but distinctly in proportion to the maturity structure of the country.? That’s the tipping point.? There are only two states with an unstable equilibrium between them — government debt is trusted, and government debt is not trusted.

Now there is no simple answer here — how will the government react?

  • Raise taxes dramatically?
  • Cut spending dramatically?? Tell seniors that Medicare will no longer do what it used to?
  • Inflate the currency?
  • Default?? (Can make sense when a country does not need access to the debt markets.)
  • Try to drive a debt reduction deal, like Greece has done, and Argentina sorta did.

Each situation has a different best investment.? That’s a boon to governments, or disaster would have happened already.? Doubt as to policy blunts the rush to panic.? There may be worry but they don’t know what to do.

One more note: when one nation passes the tipping point, the question will be raised on other nations.? Imagine a world where many developed nations default on their debts.? There would be few certainties and silver and gold would likely become new currencies.

These are just some musings of mine; all sorts of kooky things could happen, but the pressure to use the five reactions listed above will be considerable globally.? Prepare as best you can; this one isn’t easy.

The Anti-Consultancy Consultancy

The Anti-Consultancy Consultancy

I’ve had this idea for 15 years or so, but forgot about it until I sat down and talked with a friend who worked for a dysfunctional company that recently let him go.? My experience working in corporate America is that the best and most effective firms listen to their employees, and set up some means of obtaining their opinions on how the business could be improved.? Bad firms have managements that think that know it all, and the rank and file must merely execute what they imagine will work.

In all of the time that I worked in the insurance industry, or served on the boards nonprofit organizations, I have yet to have seen a situation where a consultant needed to be hired to solve a problem.? The middle management of the firms in question knew what the answer was, but senior management was either fighting with itself, or weak-minded.

I remember one situation where the Chief Investment Officer and the Chief Financial Officer hated each others guts, and could rarely agree.? The only way to solve a particular problem was to hire a consultant, who would neutrally give them an answer that they both would heed.

I was running a small line of business in the company, and the consultant approached me for data, which I gave him, but I asked my boss about the situation.? He told me that the company was spending roughly 7% of that year’s income to analyze the investment policy of the firm, particularly with respect to the liabilities of the firm.? I said to my boss, “If you gave me 3 months, I could solve this project on my own, and the cost would be 3% of what the consultant charges.”? He laughed and told me about the fighting above us, that led to the costs.

As it was, the consultant gave advice that was less detailed than I would have given, but was valuable, though embarrassing to the insurance company — they were invested two years shorter than they should be.? There a free lunch to pick up income and reduce risk.? You could go three years longer if you wanted to optimize risk.

Lovely, but if management had just asked its line of business actuaries to answer the questions it all could been solved for a small fraction of the cost, and with more precision.? Also, though no one talked about it at the time, it really showed that senior management really did not understand the core business, which was earning a spread over liabilities adjusted for risk.

I have another experience working with a non-profit where the executive was weak, and would never hire anyone more talented than himself.? As a board member, I was always shocked with how badly the place was run, but the board members suffered from the same disease; few were competent.? Management liked having incompetent board members.? Worse, the incompetent board members did not like anyone suggesting that there was a better way to do things, which is why I eventually left.

This management team hired consultant after consultant on things that I felt were answerable from resources within.? But being weak-minded, they did not trust their middle management to answer basic questions.? A lot of money was wasted in the process, which was particularly painful, because the non-profit did not have a lot of resources to spare.

Do You Really Need a Consultant?

There are cases where hiring a consultant is needed, but the first question should be whether those who work for the firm, particularly middle-management might be able to do a better job with it for less cost.? Going back to the first firm mentioned, I was hired by a division of the firm to provide exactly that expertise.

Even if employees are a little short of the expertise needed, giving the project to them will develop the expertise internally to deal with the question at hand and handle greater questions later.? More, it will improve morale, as employees deal with difficult problems and triumph over them.? If you want to read about one vignette in dealing with this, you can read it here.? It made me choke up as I re-read it, because it was such an amazing transformation/comeback that no one expected.

But the first priority of people management in a firm should be hiring bright people and set them free to act.? There was one firm I worked for where this was actually done, where the man in charge hired people, all of whom were brighter than him.? I was one of them, and I did not realize at the time that he had hired me to be his #2.? Small organization, informal, yeh.

He wasn’t always easy to deal with, and on a number of occasions people in our unit would come to me near the end of the day, and say “can we talk?”? When I learned the topic, I would say, “Close the door.”? Then I would listen to their grievances.

I responded to them, “Look, our boss is imperfect, but he means well, work with him.? He was courageous enough to hire people brighter than himself, which few will do.? Reason will win out here, and I will help the process along, but be sweet reason incarnate, try to convince, don’t gripe.”

And as it was, all such situations were resolved, and we produced a far better firm, with good results to the client, and good morale.? (And I quietly led useful change, which was the way I did things in my younger days.)

A New Business

So, if you as a management team think that you need a consultant to solve your problems, e-mail me.? For a nominal fee, I will ask you whether you have set up a culture with bright people who can solve problems, and whether they have tried to solve your problems.? If you have tried that, and your team can’t do it, yes, a consultant is warranted, otherwise not.? But it also means that you have hired wrong.? Get some talent in your door that can solve tough problems.

In essence, I would be a consultant telling you not to hire consultants, and to build up the talent base of your organization, such that you would never need me, or anyone more expensive than me again.? I would be a very cheap way of improving your organization.

Denouement

But what happened to the group where I became the #2?

Well, I briefly became #1 when the boss left prior to a merger.? We merged into a larger organization that didn’t really get how insurance assets should be run.? As it was, they lost the mandate, long after I was gone.

The rump of the organization now has a five star rating from Morningstar for high-yield bond management, and is happily managing assets in Charm City (Baltimore), while the immediate parent company (that they were sold to) is in NYC.

Oh, the boss who left?? He eventually found work? managing bonds near DC.? A good guy, if a little irascible. He is still a friend.? In fact, all the people I mentioned are still friends, because I don’t make permanent enemies.? I just try to promote what is best for all.

Buy-and-Hold Can?t Die, Redux

Buy-and-Hold Can?t Die, Redux

When I wrote my piece last night, I did not write it to say one ought to buy and never sell.? In investing, I encourage the concept that one must look to relative valuations and trade assets that are worth less for those that are worth more.? In doing so, one maintains exposure to the overall risk of the markets, but shifts to more promising areas.

But what if valuations get so strained that future returns from most risk assets are tepid?? At that point, buy-and-hold turns into sell-and-wait.? It’s like being a bond manager — if the excess returns are small from taking additional risk, you don’t take additional risk.

I tend to turn over my portfolio once every three years.? That to me is a good tradeoff between holding for a long time and recognizing that opportunity changes over time.? But my trading is driven by analyzing relative opportunity, selling what I think are lower future cash flow streams for larger cash flow streams.? Do I have a crystal ball to tell me which is better?? No, just business judgment.? As Buffett says, “I am a better businessman because I am an investor, and I am a better investor because I am a businessman.”

My business judgment has done well for me over my career, but I don’t pretend that it is infallible, because I make significant mistakes.? Humility is an asset to the investor, because we don’t always know the right course.? That said, let diversification handle uncertainty, and within risky assets trade away less promising assets for those with more promise.

A reader wrote me, one who works for a prestigious university and he said:

Since 1926, the minimum inflation-adjusted total return of the S&P 500 (or its predecessor index) has been over 4%, annualized, over every 40-year rolling period.? For 20-year periods, the returns are typically either high (say 9%) or low (say 2%).? Thus, the buy-and-hold investor is best off with the 4-decade hold time.? Fortunately, 40 years matches the typical work life of a person, so workers ought to be shoveling retirement money into equities, and leaving there when they retire, if history is any guide.

?Your thoughts?

Yes, so long as your government holds together, over longer periods of time we do better.? But the tough part for retirees is “What is my situation like when I retire?? Yes, I built up a pot of assets, but what will that buy in terms of continuing income, and will that do well against declining purchasing power?”

There is no magic bullet.? I try to solve this by shifting industries over time, aiming at the most promising current opportunities, but not leaving the market in entire.? I limit cash to 20% of the portfolio when valuations are strained for he market as a whole.

Back to the question, yes, I think most people should buy-and-hold, if they can’t analyze the asset markets.? That’s like the Biblical proverb that a fool is counted wise if he is silent.? But for businessmen/investors there are often relative opportunities to do better.? Analyze those opportunities and take the best of them.

Yes, have some exposure to risky assets for your career, but vary the amount of exposure, and where it goes relative to likely opportunity.

I appreciated Jonathan Burton’s piece Speed kills, but so does complacency.? Like me, he is trying to strike a balance between hyper-trading and permafrost.

My mother is a good example here, though she does things differently than I do.? She holds stocks for a decade or so on average, and analyzes to see whether they have long-term prospects.?? She buys, holds, and occasionally adjusts.? She spends more time painting, for which she has a degree of reputation.? She beats average asset mangers regularly.

The main idea should be one of relative value: trade to improve.? Look at the underlying cash flow streams if you can, and trade smaller for larger.

Here’s one more tool to help you.? When the amount of money into an asset goes parabolic, it time to leave.? It is rare that large amounts of additional money will yield excess returns.? This simply admits that there are times when it is wise to reduce exposure to risky assets.? just as bond managers look at yield spreads to commit capital, so should investors in risky assets aim for a margin of safety in what they invest.

As a final note, buy-and-hold is a fundamental strategy in investing.? It presumes that you spent the time analyzing whether this asset was undervalued.? If it becomes overvalued, it does not mean you should hold it.? Always look for better relative value.? In the end that leads to better portfolio performance.

Buy-and-Hold Can’t Die

Buy-and-Hold Can’t Die

There’s this mistaken idea trotting around in the popular media, which usually only shows its face in bear or sideways markets: buy-and-hold investing is dead. This is wrong in several ways:

1) The average investor is horrible at market timing.? They buy high and sell low.? The more volatile the asset subclass the more pronounced this behavior is.? I have witnessed this personally while analyzing the return differences for Bill Miller, Bruce Berkowitz, and the S&P 500 Spider.? There is a profound difference between the returns that a buy-and-hold investor receives, and that which the average investor receives.? The buy-and-hold investor almost always does better; the only exception that may exist are value investors who have learned to resist price trends, painful as that may be.

2) The assets of the market are far less volatile than those that trade them.? Bonds are issued, the grand majority of them mature (pay off).? Stocks are issued, and they pay dividends, get bought out, fail, spin off another company, etc.? Trading activity usually far exceeds the need for financing assets; it becomes a game unto itself, and a zero-to-negative-sum game at that.? When you are playing a game that is overall negative-sum, i.e., the brokers suck cash out of the game proportionate to trading, the better players look for quality assets, and trade less.

3) When a sustained bull market arrives, the other mistake will show up, “Buy-and-hold is the only way to go.”? Risky assets have periods of protracted increases in valuation.? Certainty in the continuation of the process grows as it gets closer to the end of the cycle, when the cash flows of the assets cannot support the cash flows of those who borrowed to buy them.

4) Longer-term investors are often the key to a turnaround in the price of an asset.? Asset prices bottom when longer-term investors see value, and buy-and-hold, waiting out the volatility.? Asset prices crest when long-term investors decide to sell-and-wait, because the prospective returns to a buy-and-hold investor are poor.

This is why the perspective of a value investor can be valuable in approaching markets… are you willing to do a cold hard analysis of the likely cash flows?? You know that it gets harder to maintain high returns on equity [ROEs] as time goes on, and the same for low ROEs — new management arrives, and there is mean-reversion.

Conclusion

Yes, there are clever traders, but by necessity they are few in the market ecosystem, and repeatability is uncertain.? There are far more dumb traders, and repeatability is only limited by their declining capital.? Then there are the value-oriented infrequent traders.? They do best, but second to them are those that buy-and-hold.

In general, the economy rewards those who bear risk over long periods of time.? Thus buy-and-hold does well, usually, over long periods of time.? That time period may be 30-40 years, and may not do well with respect to your retirement date, so take caution, and don’t trust in long-term investing as if it is the force of gravity.? It is more akin to one who realizes the bean farming has become unpopular, and so, he decides to plant beans.? It might not work immediately, but it stands a better chance of working than those who are chasing the current farming fad.

On News Sources

On News Sources

A reader of mine asks:

I’m interested in the range of stuff you are reading and thinking about.???? Would also be interested in a catalog of what, how, and why for “information sources you get pushed to” you and “information sources you pull/poll” on a daily or weekly basis.

This is a struggle, and it changes over time.? I have a category in my Bookmarks called “startup” which contains:

  • My portfolio tickers at Yahoo Finance, and the news thereof
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • Bloomberg.com
  • And my RSS reader

The last one varies the most but contains:

AAII Stock Investor Pro Data Updates http://feeds.feedburner.com/AAIIStockInvestorProDataUpdates
Abnormal Returns http://abnormalreturns.com/feed/
Alea http://alea.tumblr.com/rss
Bronte Capital http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Bruce Krasting http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Capital Context http://feeds.feedburner.com/CapitalContext
Cato Upcoming Events http://feeds2.feedburner.com/CatoEvents
CFO.com: Today in Finance http://www.cfo.com/rss/cfo_today_in_finance.xml
China Financial Markets http://mpettis.com/feed/
CrossingWallStreet.com http://feeds.feedburner.com/Crossingwallstreet
David Merkel (AlephBlog) on Twitter http://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/120209971.rss
Distressed Debt Investing http://feeds.feedburner.com/DistressedDebtInvesting
DTC Important Notices – Reorganization http://www.dtcc.com/legal/imp_notices/rss/dtc_reo.xml
Economics of Contempt http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Falkenblog http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss
FeedBulletin for: Alephblog http://feeds.feedburner.com/~u/Alephblog
Financial Adviser http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/feed/
Graham And Doddsville http://feeds.feedburner.com/grahamanddoddsville
HistorySquared http://feeds.feedburner.com/Historysquared
Humble Student of the Markets http://feeds.feedburner.com/HumbleStudentOfTheMarkets
Inner Workings http://blog.atimes.net/?feed=rss2
interfluidity http://www.interfluidity.com/feed
kelpiecapital http://kelpie-capital.com/feed/
Macro Rants http://macrorants.wordpress.com/feed/
Macroeconomic Resilience http://feeds.feedburner.com/MacroeconomicResilience
Market Anthropology http://www.marketanthropology.com/feeds/posts/default
NY Fed | Permanent Open Market Operations http://www.newyorkfed.org/rss/feeds/pomo.xml
Patrick Chovanec http://chovanec.wordpress.com/feed/
Rajiv Sethi http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss
RIABiz http://feeds.feedburner.com/riabiz
self-evident http://feeds.feedburner.com/self-evident
Sober Look http://feeds.feedburner.com/SoberLook
The Accounting Onion http://feeds.feedburner.com/typepad/theaccountingonion
The Aleph Blog http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheAlephBlog
The Cody Word http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/feed/
The Financial Investigator http://www.thefinancialinvestigator.com/?feed=rss2
the research puzzle http://researchpuzzle.com/blog/feed/rss/

There are many other bloggers I like a lot, but I typically run into them through linkfests from the above.? I favor bloggers that tend to post less frequently; I used to have those that post more frequently, but I could not keep up with the flow.

Occasionally Twitter and email will give me ideas, but I try to limit my time on Twitter.? I use Tweetdeck as my main Twitter client, and Buffer as my secondary client, but once I have Tweeted, I turn it off, because it is too much of a distraction.

With email, I am fascinated at the number of parties that think that I might promote their cause.? Because I respect my readers, I am really choosy about:

  • What articles I will point to
  • What infographics I will post (none so far)
  • What types of advertising I will do (and I have turned down a lot of deals)
  • Most things 😉

I will send back comments to the PR folks, and I will often unsubscribe, or ask to be removed.? I am not a media outlet in the traditional sense.? (And why many Atheist organizations think I will publish their cause floors me, but I don’t unsubscribe, I just quote the Bible to them.? Fun! 😉 )

But the truth is, I probably spend too much time in data-gathering / analysis.? I go through cycles where I pare down my sources… I’ve done it probably a dozen times over the last 5-8 years, and then like topsy/kudzu it grows back.? That’s the battle.

But, now you know the basics of my reading lists.? If it helps you, good.? If not, as with all of my posts, I thank you for reading me.? Your time is valuable, and I am very sorry to have wasted your time.? I hope to do better next time, but I understand when people unsubscribe because:

  • Needs change over time, and no one is perpetually relevant
  • I sometimes say controversial things, and offense leads people to leave
  • I occasionally write boring things, and I don’t blame you for leaving — I’m not always Chrysostom (golden-mouthed)
  • There are really good writers out there on investing & finance, and I try to be one, but the competition is very good.? On the bright side, Aleph Blog is still an independent blog of the old school, where one person does it all, and has his own site.

When I was at the recent Investment Research Challenge, a number of the students came up to me and said, “Oh you’re *that* David Merkel.? I read you all the time.”? That was humbling.? I write primarily to give something back.? Yes, I get a little out of advertising and book reviews.? Yes, it gains clients for me indirectly.? But that’s not why I write.

I write because there is so much garbage that average investors are fed, and believe, and my self-appointed job is to fight it.? I tell my kids that there is a loose organization of bloggers that I notionally call “The Good Guys.”? I am one of them, and we are out to expose:

  • Deceptive products
  • Fraudulent stocks
  • General bad ideas in investing
  • Occasionally, bad advisors
  • Crummy but well-known economists
  • Self-serving politicians, and those that aid them
  • And more

Don’t get me wrong, I know I have my own problems, and I accept correction from others.

But that describes how I interact with the Internet, and the vortex of data that it delivers.

Theme: Overlay by Kaira