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In my view, these were my best posts written between February 2017 and April 2017:
Problems with Constant Compound Interest (6)
It is very difficult to get a high real rate of return over a long time.? This article peels apart the math, and brings out the quantitative factors that play a role in the analysis.
When the yield premiums for taking most forms of additional risk are too low, it’s time to take much less risk, and reduce yield considerably.
Streaking Into the Record Books?
Remember the streak of days where the market did not go down by 1% or more?? It ended and did not set a record, but it was a top 10 long streak.
We Get New Highs More Frequently After New Highs
Dog bites man, but I have never seen an analysis like this done before.
On the value of having someone financially smart to whom you can ask questions
Clarifying the return series that I use for my forecasts of future stock market returns, and is it likely for an investor to earn a 3% real return over a long horizon?
I give a significant analysis of Harry Browne’s idea.? Yes, it works.
Four Simple Investment Strategies That Work
- Indexing
- Buy-and-hold
- Permanent Portfolio
- Bond Ladders
Operating vs Financial Cash Flows
Do ETFs affect the valuations of individual stocks, or the market as a whole?
(This rule applies to salesmen) ?We pay disclosed compensation. ?We pay undisclosed compensation. ?We don?t pay both?disclosed compensation?and undisclosed compensation.?
Steeling Themselves For Pension Benefit Cuts
On the?Kline-Miller Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014, and its impact on pension benefits in multiemployer plans that are VERY underfunded.
Because of underfunding, there will be more cuts. ?Depend on that happening for the worst funds, and at least run through the risk analysis of what you would do if your pension benefit were cut by 20% for a municipal plan, or to the PBGC limit for a corporate plan. ?Why? ?Because it could happen.
On the Pursuit of Economic Growth
On why cultural values play a large role in economic growth, but governments generally don’t.? (Hint: Stimulus is a dumb idea.)
The Financial Report of the United States Government 2016
This is an underrated report from the US Government, but even it is forced to downplay how the situation is for Social Security and Medicare.? Things aren’t getting better, and time is running short.? The next time I write about this is when the 2018 report comes out.? Until then remember my more recent piece?Notes from an Unwelcome Future, Part 1.