Category: Value Investing

Two Quick Notes on Investing

Two Quick Notes on Investing

Insect bites, bruises, sore feet, tiredness, happy sons… I am back from backpacking.

Whenever a financial product is plentiful, it is usually time to avoid it.? Tonight’s poster child for such nuttiness is junk bonds.? If you are a speculator, you can own junk bonds, and the stocks of the companies that are issuing them, because the market is hot for now, but be ready to sell; have your stop orders ready.? Fundamental investors would need to be more careful.? Though default rates may be declining, there is no guarantee that that will continue to be so; given troubles at the banks, cautious stance is warranted.

If looking at individual issues, those aiming for organic growth are better candidates than those that are doing mergers, paying special dividends, or just levering up.? So be wary, and realize that conditions could change rapidly.? Stick to sounder credits, including investment grade issues.? There is more juice to be squeezed in the long end of investment grade, then in shorter junk issues.

My second point for the evening is avoid the equities of scale acquirers.? In general, acquirers of large entities overpay, and execution after the acquisition is tough because it is tough to integrate:

  • Management teams — different views are often incompatible, and the victor looks down on the company acquired.
  • Cultures — same thing.? Cultures encompass the ways that a broad body of people implement the views of management.? Incompatible cultures are tough to merge; usually that of the acquirer must die, much like ancient war that destroyed losing cultures.
  • Systems — rarely compatible.? It takes a lot of effort to make all of the critical computer systems speak the same language.
  • Marketing — different philosophies lead to a need for the best to remain, and the worst to die.
  • Finances — easy, except that differing practices must be integrated.? Accounting is often more liberal coming out of an acquisition, because of the need to make the acquisition look good.

The best acquisitions are small, incremental, and facilitate the organic growth of the acquirer.? They add new products that can be sold through existing infrastructure.? They add new markets to sell existing products to.

In an environment like this, focus on organic growth, and perhaps those companies likely to be acquired.? Organic growth because it shows where there is real and perhaps repeatable growth in the economy; targets because if capital is cheap, there may be future companies bought out by fools who serve themselves and not their shareholders.

All for now.? Back on Monday.

Linus : Security Blanket :: David : Bloomberg Terminal

Linus : Security Blanket :: David : Bloomberg Terminal

Dear Readers,

New asset management shops start small.? One of the luxuries I have had for the past 18 years is access to a Bloomberg Terminal.? I will not be able to afford one ($20-25K/year), at least not initially, as I start up what is likely to be called Aleph Investments.

I will miss having a Bloomberg Terminal.? At every firm that I have worked at, I have been good at getting it to do tough projects, whether with stocks, bonds (government, corporate, mortgage, bank debt, default swaps), economics, or other investments (munis, money markets, preferred, commodities, currencies, etc.), or getting data on competitors.? I have a deep knowledge of what it can do, compared to most users.

But who needs all of that scope for an average equity management business?? Granted, it’s nice to have the details on all aspects of the capital structure when making decisions, but who has that luxury when your resources are thin?? There is always leafing through the 10-K, a good exercise for all of us who invest.

In my younger days, say 10-15 years ago, I would get most of my investment data via paper.? I would get my kids together and we would stuff envelopes to send out to corporations. Over the next three weeks, the flood of data would be huge, but I would sit down with the kids (they were so cute then) as they reports came in, and show them what the company did and where it was located.? One of them would look at one of the smaller reports and say “10-Q,” to which I would reply “You’re welcome,” which would elicit some giggles.

Ah, the simpler days.? Where was I?

Yeah, I can’t afford a Bloomberg Terminal, but I need a service or a set of services that provides the following (US Traded stocks):

  • Current and Historical fundamental data.
  • Real time equity prices.
  • Price histories.
  • Industry fundamental data (I wish, but don’t have to have it)
  • Reasonable summaries of common ratios and growth rates. (If need be, I can calculate them.)
  • Some economic data (but I can probably cobble that together myself)
  • Some technical work (money flow, RSI, intraday RSI, but that’s just a nicety, and I could do it myself…)
  • International economic data (dreaming, I know, and I can do without it)
  • Commodities, Futures (but I could do without it)
  • Option implied volatilities (but I could do without it)

I’m an investor, not a trader.? I trade a 30-40 stock portfolio about 100 times/year, and most of the trades are rebalancing trades, where I buy or sell to bring a company up to its target weight when it hits a portfolio weight 20% above or below my target weight.? I hold companies on average 3 years.

Now, I could probably get by with:

  • AAII Professional Stock Screener
  • Value Line (paper, limited online, and only the large- and mid-caps)
  • Yahoo! Real-Time Quotes
  • WSJ & Barron’s market data
  • Bloomberg.com
  • FRED at the Federal Reserve
  • SEC Edgar
  • Maybe subscribe to the Financial Times online.
  • And free stuff around the web.? Yahoo! Finance is excellent in a pinch for individual company analysis.

But, could I do better?? Many of my readers use sources that I am not aware of.? If you would, would you describe the data sources that you use for data analysis.? It would not only be of value to me, but would be of value to all of our readers.

When I am up and running with Aleph Investments, I will post to let you know what I finally settled on, but for now, let me know what you would use if you were in my shoes.? If you are posting a reply to somewhere other than the comments at my site, please send a copy here.

Thanks to all,

David

Surviving a Bad Quarter Well

Surviving a Bad Quarter Well

To my readers: I am still in the process of blog repair.? I have heard from a few readers that I need larger type and more contrast.? I will fix that.? For now, use Ctrl-+ to expand the font.? I don’t want any of you going blind over me. 😉

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Onto tonight’s topic: asset allocation.? So, we had a bad quarter for equities.? Not that I can predict things, but I pulled in my horns progressively over the last nine months, culminating in buying a bunch of utilities at the last portfolio reshaping.? I own mostly energy, insurance, utilities, and consumer nondurables stocks, with a little tech thrown in for fun.? At present, median P/E is around 9, and P/B around 90%, with strong balance sheets, and around 17% of the portfolio in cash.? I missed roughly half of the carnage of the last quarter, and this week, I put some money to work, cash falling by 1%.

So, when are equities cheap?? Next question: cheap relative to what?? It’s difficult to say when equities are absolutely cheap, but here are some ideas on cheapness:

  • Stocks are absolutely cheap when they trade in aggregate at less than book value, or less than 8x trailing earnings.? Think of Buffett getting excited back in 1974.
  • Stocks are relatively cheap to Baa bonds when the earnings yield of stocks plus 3.9% is above the yield on Baa bonds.? But this at present depends on very high profit margins continuing, and sales not shrinking, neither of which are guaranteed.
  • When there is significant debt deflation going on, determining cheapness is tough.? Better to ignore the market as a whole, and focus on survivability/cheapness.? Aim at companies in necessary industries with relatively little debt, strong accounting practices, and cheap to earnings/book/sales.
  • I don’t have a good metric for when equities are cheap/dear to commodities.? Ideas welcome.

With respect to bonds, credit spreads are not wide enough to make me yell buy, as I did in November 2008 and March 2009.? Beyond that, the spread on GSE debt and guaranteed mortgages is thin.? TIPS look attractive, as few care about inflation.? The US dollar has been strong lately, largely due to weakness in the Euro.? I would be light on non-dollar bonds for now.

What we have been experiencing is creeping illiquidity, where the prior stimulus from the Fed and US Government has been declining.? There isn’t enough private demand growth to drive the economy, because we need to pay off or compromise on debts.? Also, the private sector looks at the growing debts of the government, and gets concerned.? How will the government deal with it?? Higher taxes, inflation, default?? No good scenarios there.

When an economy is overleveraged, there are no good solutions.? If sales fall, then corporations will fire more people, and idle more capacity in order to maintain profits near prior levels.? High quality bonds do well, but stocks do poorly, until enough debts are paid of or compromised, and the economy can work without the fear of mass insolvency again.

I have written before on a new approach to asset allocation.? Broadly, I am looking at a system that:

  • Considers the credit cycle first.? Great returns typically happen after credit spreads are wide, and are lousy after they are tight.
  • Considers the slopes of the Treasury nominal and TIPS curves.
  • Looks at the cash flow yield of all asset classes relative to history, relative to other asset class yields, etc.
  • Factors in safety provisions for each asset class.? Stocks need the most, then junk bonds, then investment grade.
  • Looks at the short-run and the long-haul returns of each asset class, attempting to analyze when the short run is way above or far below long-haul trends.

At present, I am still happy playing conservative, because I am less confident about debt deflation than most investors are now.? There will come a time to be much more bullish, but it will come after earnings decline, and firms have delevered still further.

Industry Ranks

Industry Ranks

Industry-Ranks-6-25-10

I?m working on my quarterly reshaping ? where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio.? The first part of this is industry analysis.

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic.? Green industries are cold.? Red industries are hot.? If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, ?Where are trends under-discounted??? Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term.

If you are a value player, look at the green zone, and ask where trends are over-discounted.? Yes, things are bad, but are they all that bad?? Perhaps the is room for mean reversion.

My candidates from both categories are in the column labeled ?Dig through.?

If you use any of this, choose what you use off of your own trading style.? If you trade frequently, stay in the red zone.? Trading infrequently, play in the green zone ? don?t look for momentum, look for mean reversion.

Whatever you do, be consistent in your methods regarding momentum/mean-reversion, and only change methods if your current method is working well.

Huh?? Why change if things are working well?? I?m not saying to change if things are working well.? I?m saying don?t change if things are working badly.? Price momentum and mean-reversion are cyclical, and we tend to make changes at the worst possible moments, just before the pattern changes.? Maximum pain drives changes for most people, which is why average investors don?t make much money.

Maximum pleasure when things are going right leaves investors fat, dumb, and happy ? no one thinks of changing then.? This is why a disciplined approach that forces changes on a portfolio is useful, as I do 3-4 times a year.? It forces me to be bloodless and sell stocks with less potential for those wth more potential over the next 1-5 years.

I still like energy names here, utilities, and reinsurers, particularly those that are strongly capitalized.? I’m not concerned about hurricanes for the strongly capitalized; they will be around to benefit from the increase in pricing power after any set of hurricanes.

I’m looking for undervalued and stable industries.? Human resources — sure, more part time workers.? Healthcare information?? A growing field, even with the new “health bill.”? Same for Biotech.

Even in a double dip, toiletries will still be purchased.? Phone calls will still be made, and the internet will still be accessed.? Perhaps life insurers are worth a look here; after all, the Bush tax cuts are expiring, and there will be more demand for tax avoidance.

I’m not saying that there is always a bull market out there, and I will find it for you.? But there are places that are relatively better, and I have done relatively well in finding them.

At present, I am trying to be defensive.? I don’t have a lot of faith in the market as a whole, so I am biased toward the green zone, looking for mean-reversion, rather than momentum persisting.? The red zone is more highly cyclical than I have seen in quite a while.? I will be very happy hanging out in dull stocks for a while.

11 Notes

11 Notes

Internet issues are resolved, so here’s a post of things that built up while things were down.

1) You know that I have mixed feelings about the Fed.? They have done a poor job with bank regulation, monetary policy, and managing systemic risk.? The trouble is, if you?re going to have a fiat currency, monetary policy is credit policy, and so your central bank should broadly control credit if you are going to do that at all.? (If not, then set up a currency board, or back your currency with silver/gold.)

So when I hear that the Fed is winning in reconciliation of the finance bill, I think it is good in some ways ? yes, they should oversee small banks, but bad because the Fed should not have bailout authority, or at least they should not be able to hide what they do when monetary policy is unorthodox.? It is one thing to delay oversight of ordinary dealings, but rotten to hide debasement of the currency through special dealings with favored entities.

But I see little value in the size of the Fed.? They have too many people doing too little.? Monetary policy and bank supervision?? Fine if they do it well.? But the institution as a whole could be radically slimmed.? Congress should take closer control of the Fed, slim it down, and focus it on the missions that it should attend to.

2) I am not impressed with Donald Kohn.? He has a farewell interview with the Wall Street Journal, and not once does he mention the buildup of debt in our economy, partially fostered by easy monetary policy from the Fed, as a problem.? Blind guy, and even worse, he still doesn?t get that bubbles are typically able to be seen in advance, or, that the Eurozone isn?t structurally flawed.

Thought experiment time.? What if we tossed out all the Fed governors, and replaced them with a bunch of notable value investors?? Value investors suffer from the problem that we see problems early, and adjust portfolios too soon.? That could be of benefit to monetary policy, because value investors often see when things are becoming overdone, well in advance of it becoming too big to handle.? This would be a big improvement on the current system.

3) I get email from congressional staffs asking for advice on issues, or asking me to write about them.? Recently I was asked what I would ask the nominees for the Federal Reserve Board.? This is what I said:

  • We find ourselves in this crisis because the Fed ran an asymmetric monetary policy for years: loosen aggressively when the least crisis comes up, and tighten slowly until there are small squeaks of pain.? This led short interest rates progressively lower, until we found ourselves in the liquidity trap that we are now experiencing.? How are you going to get us out of this liquidity trap?
  • How are you going to provide decent opportunities to savers so that capital formation can begin again?
  • What have you done in your life that qualifies you for this level of responsibility?
  • To the economists: neoclassical economics did us no favors with respect to this crisis.? Only a few Austrian economists predicted it, along with a few practical economists in the business world.? We need a new paradigm for monetary policy.? Are you capable of providing it?
  • To the non-economist:?You will be working primarily with neoclassical economists, with their theories uncontaminated by?data.? How will you avoid being sucked in by their groupthink?

4) When I went to hear Raghuram Rajan and Carmen Reinhart at the Cato Institute, I was very impressed with what both of them had to say.? Rajan was the skunk at the farewell party for Alan Greenspan back in 2005 at Jackson Hole, when he was the only one to fully suggest that imbalances were building up due to debts being incurred in the financial sector.? Few aside from The Economist noted what he said.? More noted Donald Kohn?s dismissive response, which was not erudite, in my opinion.

Both noted that the current financial reform bill would do little to fix the real underlying problems, with which I agree.? It constrains in many areas that don?t need it, and does not constrain areas that were significant to the crisis ? e.g., the GSEs and the Fed.? Imagine a simple proposal that would immediately force flexibility onto the economy: dividends are deductible, but interest payments (and preferred dividends) are not.? An easy way to lower leverage, and encourage flexible finance.

Also, they noted the possibility that the US Government would engage in financial repression, which would force people to invest in government securities on unfavorable terms.? Ugly stuff.

And as an aside, we met in the F. A. Hayek Auditorium.

5) Can Hayek be cool?? Perhaps, give the recent rap video.? I am not surprised that few neoclassical economists give Hayek any credit; he cuts against most of what they stand for, so why should they commit treason?

As for Glenn Beck, I get tired very quickly of the facile answers that appeal to the anger of the masses.? There are real problems, and we need to deal with them, but oversimplifying the problems will not get us to the solutions; it will only create a new set of problems.? I have no favor toward the Tea Party; they don?t stand for anything coherent.? I am not an Austrian economist, much as I like some of their ideas.? My ideas have been derived from my observation of how financial systems work over the last 25 years.

6) Following Austrian economics would be a huge improvement over what we usually do, though there is a problem.? Once you hit the bust, nothing works.? The Austrian view will be a ?big bang? and clean it up fast, but it will be a lot of sharp pain.? The virtue of Austrian Economics is that it would restrain the boom, and thus make it less likely that one faces the pains of the bust.? But there are no easy solutions in the bust.

Focus on the boom, not the bust.? Solve the boom, and the bust does not come.

7) It is common that many debt classes that have few defaults get an aura about the qualitative factors that forestall default.? Well, what of municipal finance?? Under stress, is it possible that the cultural factors that made default less likely might wither, and defaults cascade in likelihood?? Yes, I think that is possible, and I think that is why Buffett is lightening the boat on munis.

8 ) Solve the revolving door problem for the SEC?? Pay them more.? I get it, but are we really willing to pay market-based salaries for expertise?? I doubt it.? The government tends to be chintzy; penny wise and pound foolish.

But if you hired real experts, would the government be willing to set them free and let them corner real frauds?? That is the question.

9) Fannie and Freddie common stocks are on their way to zero.? Their NYSE delisting is just one more step in the road to total dissolution.? The simplest solution is to fold them into GNMA, and slim down the massive operations that don?t do much for the mortgage market.

10) The unequal signal problem exists with the banks that took TARP money.? We hear a lot about those that repay, but little about those that do not pay.? Well, here is an article about those who did not pay.

11) Evan Newmark is occasionally annoying, but often perceptive.? Should President Obama do what he does not want to do?? It couldn?t hurt; his allies on the far left are already disaffected. The question is whether he can be as dispassionate as Bill Clinton, and pursue a centrist course.? I don?t think he is capable of that, because he is too smart, and smart people, unless they moderate their idealism, don?t compromise well.

That?s all for now.

AEI: Preventing the Next Bubble

AEI: Preventing the Next Bubble

While trying to figure out what I should do, given the demise of my prior firm, I have been attending some events in Washington, DC to stay sharp, and consider what others are saying on public policy issues.? So, on Monday I went to the American Enterprise Institute to listen to their presentation on “Preventing the Next Bubble.”

Now, if you’ve read me for a while, you know that I think that the boom-bust cycle can’t be repealed, but it can be modified.? You can either get a bunch of moderate booms and busts, where the busts are allowed to burn out naturally, or you can try to suppress the busts (wrong strategy, try suppressing the booms), leading to anemic booms, declining marginal productivity of capital, and when bust suppression no longer works, you get a colossal bust, like the Great Depression or now.

There’s no free lunch in macroeconomics.? Academic economists foolishly look for ways to optimize economic performance.? They end up overinterpreting limited data, and given the biases of politicians that employ economists, suggest intervention where none is needed.

All that said, I enjoyed the presentations.? I felt the discussions were worth the two-plus hours that I spent on the matter, as well as the people that I met.

Preventing the Next Bubble

Bill Foster (U.S. House of Representatives (D-Ill.)) led off, suggesting that if you can make LTV ratios in residential lending countercyclical, you can? eliminate booms and busts.? He wants to put that into law next year.

He is an engineer by training, and like most engineers and physicists, they adopt a mechanistic model to control the economy.? My father-in-law, an eminent physicist, often suggests the same to me.? I tell him that economics is more similar to ecology than physics.? People hate having their freedom restrained, and so when arbitrary rules are imposed, even smart rules, they look for means of escape.? But his proposal misses many items:

  • Mortgage insurers will undo the tightening, and I can’t see a way to outlaw mortgage insurance.
  • Fraud issues still exist — appraisal and application fraud will undo some of the constraint, as will seller financing.
  • Monetary policy will be hindered by the countercyclical restraints on mortgage lending, and the Fed will loosen more aggressively as a result.? (Yes, I am looking 20 or so years out here, to when monetary policy normalizes.)

In my opinion, any proposal for preventing bubbles that does not limit the Fed is not a real proposal.? That said, the Fed had the ability during the housing bubble to constrain mortgage underwriting, and did not do it.? Why should a new law change matters?’

The next presentation was from Jay Brinkmann, of the Mortgage Bankers Association.? His presentation dug into reasons why demand for housing was unsustainable.? Whether it was weak underwriting, tight spreads, teaser rates, fraud, or incompetent credit models, there were a lot of reasons for failure.

But the politics of fixing things is tough.? Who wants to oppose the CRA, Realtors and Builders?? I would note that really tough credit busts occur with secured lending, because lenders ge deluded by the seeming value of the collateral.

Next was Allan Mendelowitz, of the Federal Housing Finance Board.? His presentation discussed how one could fight a mortgage bubble.? I noted four ways to fight:

  • Raise underwriting standards.
  • Decrease the abilities of the GSEs to lend.
  • Remove/decrease tax subsidies to home ownership, particularly those that allow for limited capital gains tax on house sales.
  • Raise down payments.

I was most impressed with Mark Zandi of Moody’s.? He didn’t just look at the housing market, but at bubbles generally.? He noted three ways to discern a bubble.

  • High turnover rates
  • Rise in prices
  • Increased leverage

He had three solutions:

  • Modify Fed policy to incorporate asset signals, such that when high yield spreads are tight, Fed policy should tighten.? (His rules were more complex than that.)
  • Make Risk Based Capital more cyclical
  • Genuinely regulate underwriting standards.

I thought Zandi’s ideas were the most comprehensive — after all it is unlikely that the next bubble will be in residential housing.? Why focus on the last war?? Why not aim for a generic solution?

John H. Makin, of? AEI and Caxton Associates, gave the simplest presentation.? Bubbles will always exist.? Central banks will not see them.? Booms militate against those who want to dampen them, because there are many who look for rewards without work.

A number of the presenters pointed to China and Israel, both of which are trying to run countercyclical mortgage policies.? The jury is out here.? Hopefully we can learn from their successes or mistakes.

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I had my disagreements with the presenters.? Rep. Foster think that we lost $17.5 trillion of wealth from the bust.? My view is that we never had that wealth.? That is the nature of bubbles and busts.? Asset values can get pushed ahead by cheap credit.? Once the cheap credit was gone, so was a lot of the “wealth.”

I believe that the way things are financed can help detect bubbles.? It is almost always initially profitable to borrow short and lend long.? Most bubbles have a lot of people buying long-dated assets and financing a lot shorter than the assets useful lifetimes.

Also, bubbles usually start with a good idea, where money can be made at a low level of leverage.? But as prices get pushed up leverage levels rise for new entrants wanting to make money.? As prices are pushed up further, new buyers use cheap short term finance to acquire assets.? This is a sign that a bubble is nearing its end.? Another such sign that a bubble is nearing its reversal is that new owners rely on capital gains to stay afloat.? Owners have to continually feed the asset in order to hold it.? Few can do that, so when you see that, the bubble is nearly complete.? Sell with both hands.

Another disagreement that I had was that none of the speakers was willing to finger the Fed as a major culprit, given their overly loose monetary policy over the last 25 years.

I learned from one of the best, that with bank lending there is quality, quantity, and price.? In good markets, you can get two of the three.? In bad markets, you can get one of three.? In the most recent crisis, lenders ignored that, and assumed that current profits indicated good business.

But, in the finance business, there are “yield hogs.”? Yield hogs take for granted the stability of the financial system, and assume that they can ear an above average yield by taking more risk.

In general that does not work.? Yield hogs take losses.

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So, I am not optimistic about preventing bubbles.? But, I can predict them on occasion, as I have described above:

Wrecking Ball Looms for Big Housing Spec
Real Estate?s Top Looms

The way assets are financed tells us a lot about their owners.? Are they here for the long haul or not?? Long term holders augur for positive price action, whereas stock renters argue for negative price action.

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

Well, whaddaya know?? I received a nice mention at The Ideas Report For Serious Investors. Unexpected, and an honor. I really like their blog and have added it to my RSS reader.? So, I left them this comment, which is not published yet:

Hey, thanks for mentioning me. Here’s a bonus for those with access to RealMoney:

And away from RealMoney:

I hope you enjoy these. They are the bulk of my thoughts on insurance stocks, aside from issue-specific commentary.

David

Disclosure: long ALL NWLI SAFT RGA AIZ PRE CB

I went back through all of my blog posts in insurance to analyze what were the best things I had written on insurance investing.? I also added one more blog post idea to my list.? A long time ago, I wrote a 16-page paper summarizing the whole insurance industry for a former employer.? It was urgent, so I pulled an all-nighter at the ripe old age of 43.? He was deeply grateful for the piece, and then it never got published.? It was supposed to span three issues of his newsletter, but it never appeared in one.? I have no idea why it never ran, but it bugged me that it never did.? So, with a little updating, I hope to release it in serial form sometime in the next few months.? I have lost the original file, so I will have to scan it in and edit it.

But enough of that — the articles listed above are a reasonable summary of how I analyze insurance and other financial stocks.? For those that invest in stocks, I hope you enjoy these posts.

PostscriptApologies to PlanMaestro, Manual of Ideas republished his work, and I appreciate the two mentions from him at his blog, Variant Perceptions.? He expands his thoughts on my most recent piece on AIG’s under-reserving.? Keep it up PlanMaestro, and remember, PartnerRe does not discount its reserves.

Using Industry Rotation to Gain an Edge, Maybe

Using Industry Rotation to Gain an Edge, Maybe

For the last year and three months I have written a weekly piece on industry rotation that is largely based off of price momentum, and described in this old piece that I wrote: A Different Look at Industry Momentum. I have my doubts about that piece around turning points and in choppy markets.? I stated as much in my later piece A Different Look at Industry Momentum ? II.? It seems that the momentum effect has been declining over time.

In the near future I hope to do an update for both pieces, which will show whether I have been wrong in the short run.? Unfortunately, since the original piece, I have been through a hard disk crash, so I will be rebuilding from scratch.

All that said, here are the industries with strong momentum (new industries in italic; as for the particular companies mentioned here, these are promising candidates for further due diligence):

  • Catalogue Retailers ? HSNI
  • Broadcasting & Cable TV ? CBS
  • Household Appliances ? WHR
  • Residential REITs ? AIV, UDR
  • Real Estate Services ? JLL
  • Internet Retail ? NFLX
  • Auto Manufacturers ? F
  • Computer Storage & Peripherals ? SNDK, LXK, NTAP
  • Hotels ? HOT
  • Airlines ? ALK
  • Multiline Insurance ? AIG, GNW
  • Leisure Products ? BC, ACAT
  • Health Care Technology ? CERN
  • Commercial Printing ? CGX
  • Apparel Retail ? LTD, BWS, FINL, ANN, ZUMZ, DBRN
  • Health Care Distributors ? ABC, CAH
  • Apparel & Accessories ? PERY, ZQK, MFB, LIZ
  • Cable & Satellite ? TWC
  • Gold & Precious Metals Miners ? NEM
  • Footwear ? SKX, CROX
  • Consumer Finance ? EZPW, WRLD
  • Info Tech Consulting ? ACXM, CTSH, IT
  • Real Estate Development ? FOR
  • Home Furnishings ? WSM
  • Photographic Products ? EK
  • General Merchandising ? BIG
  • Movies & Entertainment ? LYV
  • Retail REITs ? PEI, MAC, KRG
  • Office REITs ? SLG, ARE

And here are the weak industries:

  • Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
  • Semiconductor Equipment
  • Building Products
  • Industrial Gases
  • Communications Equipment
  • Construction Materials
  • Education Services
  • Homebuilding
  • Human Resources & Employment Services
  • Brewers
  • Integrated Oil & Gas
  • Oil & Gas Drilling
  • Electric Utilities
  • Water Utilities
  • Integrated Telecommunication Services
  • Reinsurance
  • Diversified Support Service
  • Asset Management & Custody Banks
  • Heavy Electrical Equipment (AZZ)
  • Agricultural Products
  • Independent Power Production
  • Construction and Engineering
  • Investment Banking & Brokerage
  • Biotech
  • Aluminum
  • Diversified (it’s Leucadia)
  • Home Entertainment Software
  • Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
  • Tire & Rubber (Goodyear)
  • Alternative Carriers

I am less than a momentum player, even though I know it works generally.? At turning points, models like these do not work well.? That has been my worry since I began writing a weekly industry rotation report for my employer in March of 2009.? Though momentum works enough of the the time that it overcomes the turning points in the long run, when the market is volatile, choppy, etc., using momentum seems to be a fool’s errand.? Industry momentum trends usually last for years, but what if they only last for months?

That is what makes analysis of price trends in the market difficult.? There is not a consistent periodicity to market cycles.? I might argue that bull markets tend to correspond to long cycles, and bear markets to short/nonexistent cycles.? So, maybe the answer stares me in the face — though I have a variety of models for industry rotation, I use them as guides, not rules.? When I am more concerned that short term performance may not persist, I pick from the bottom of the list rather than the top, seeking mean reversion.? When I don’t see headwinds for the economy as a whole, I pick more from the top of the list.

But, I like picking from both ends of the list, because the top end makes me ask the question: “have people underestimated this?”? The bottom of the list makes me ask: “is there are great big sign over the industry that reads, ‘Abandon all hope, all ye who enter here.’ ?”? Both conditions offer opportunities for profit.

And, given the preponderance of top-down players out there who hug the indexes (much institutional money), and my friends who are bottom-up stock pickers (but still glance at the indexes and adjust), it leaves room for those of us who are willing to express distinct views regarding industries.? For me today, it is fourfold:

  • If you are going to buy cyclicality, you may as well own energy names.? Energy drives the economy, and they aren’t making any more of it.? (Unless we get higher efficiency means of converting solar, wind, or tides.)
  • Insurers are relatively safe from an asset standpoint and undervalued.
  • Utilities throw off relatively safe cash flows in a bad environment.
  • Well-financed companies that are needed regardless of the cycle, and are cheap-ish.

If you have been reading me for any significant length of time, you know that I eschew simple answers.? Life, and investment performance, are complex beasts.? My view of the markets at present is mixed; there are reasons for optimism, and reasons for fear.? Typically, I don’t give into fear in full, rather than leave the markets, I take a more conservative position within them.

And, I don’t let inflation fears scare me out of the markets.? Equity markets don’t respond to inflation that much.? Scarcity of capital, or high real interest rates are another matter — at that point, far better to hold money market funds, gold, etc., though? energy stocks should work there as well, and utilities will be middling.

Depression would be another matter, but I see our politicians fighting depression as they see it, leading to a Japan-style economy, where there is no bad asset that can’t be financed through the monetary base at 0%.? (They are willing to inflate assets, but not goods prices.)? That is, if they can avoid a full-scale run on the currency, such as may be beginning to happen with the Euro now.? (What taxation authority stands behind the Euro?? Please ask Mr. Sarkozy or Ms. Merkel, though I think you will get different versions of obfuscation out of each.)

I am working to preserve capital now, and year-to-date in 2010 I am down a little less than a percent.? Though Value Line recently got a little more bullish, I am waiting to get more bullish.? I will add little bit by little bit to my positions as they go down, but I see no reason to add dramatically today.

So, be wary as always, and conservative in your decisions.? Better to avoid errors than to hit home runs in this environment.

How I Minimize Taxes on my Stock Investing

How I Minimize Taxes on my Stock Investing

One thing that I do differently than most investors is the concept of rebalancing.? I buy and sell positions to maintain their weights in the portfolio, within a 20% band around the intended weight.? As I wrote about it at RealMoney:

The two smaller purchases were done for a different reason than the other trades. I already owned Petrobras (PBR:NYSE) and Dycom (DY:NYSE) , but both had been performing badly. Their weight had shrunk to be the smallest in my portfolio. After a review of their fundamentals, I did what I call a rebalancing trade.

When I interviewed fund managers, I would often ask how they would rebalance positions in response to market movements. Many of them would do nothing; others had no fixed strategy. However, three of them had really worked on refining their strategies, and to my surprise, their outcomes were similar — even though other aspects of their styles were different. One was value, one was growth, one was core, but they each had evidence that their approach improved their returns by a few percent per year. That caught my attention.

One cost of trading comes from whether a trade demands or supplies liquidity to the market. When a trader posts a limit order, he or she offers other market participants an option to exchange shares for liquidity at a known price. In offering liquidity, the trader hopes to get an execution at a favorable price.

The approach that the three managers use — and that I employ in my personal account — is as follows:

  • Define a series of fixed weights for the stocks in the portfolio.
  • Do a rebalancing trade when any position gets more than 20% away from its target weight. The 20% figure is arbitrary, but I think it strikes a balance between excessive trading and capturing reasonable trading profits by providing shares and liquidity to the market when it wants them.
  • Use this time as an opportunity to re-evaluate the thesis on the stock. If the thesis is no longer valid, exit the position and buy something that you like better.
  • If the rebalancing trade generates cash, invest the cash in the stocks that are the most below their target weights, to bring them up to target weight.
  • If the rebalancing trade requires cash, generate the cash from selling stocks that are the most above their target weights, to bring them down to target weight.

This discipline forces you to buy low and sell high and to re-evaluate your holdings after significant relative market movement. This method works best with companies that possess low total leverage relative to others in their industries. This helps avoid the problem of averaging down to a huge loss.

It also works best for diversified portfolios with 20 to 50 stocks, with reasonably even weights. In my portfolio, the weights range from 3% to 7%, with 33 companies altogether.

The incremental profits add up as companies and industries fall in and out of favor, and the rebalancing system buys low and sells high.

Now, one aspect of this that I did not write about at RealMoney is that it saves on taxes.? In a very volatile market, like we have had over the last three years, and that we had 2000-2004, there were a lot of opportunities to buy low.? Now for someone like me, who runs with 30+ positions, a sharp move down and up feels like this:

  • At the start of the move down, I have realized and unrealized capital gains.
  • As the move down proceeds, I have realized gains but no unrealized capital gains.? I have redeployed? money into defensive industries, or, at least stocks that are undervalued.
  • Further into the move down, I have no realized gains and and I have unrealized capital losses.? I am still redeploying money into defensive and cheap investments.
  • Still further into the move down, I have realized losses and and I have large unrealized capital losses.? At this point I should be moving into economically sensitive names, and add cyclicality.
  • I may have to do that twice, or even three times, but eventually a bottom comes.
  • As the move up begins, I have realized losses and unrealized capital losses.? As I sell stocks to reinvest in better companies, I sell stable names to buy cyclical ones.? As stocks hit my upper rebalancing points, I sell high tax cost lots, and hold onto the low tax cost lots.? My realized losses grow.
  • As the move up continues, I have realized losses and no unrealized capital losses.? I continue to sell high tax cost lots of companies that have hit my rebalancing points.
  • Further into the move up, I have no realized losses, and unrealized capital gains.? My rebalancing and other sales are now creating small gains.
  • Still further into the move up, I have realized gains and large unrealized capital gains.? I then look for my largest unrealized long-term capital gains in stocks that I would like to sell, and donate them to charity.? Fidelity Investments makes that very easy.? After the year end, I repeat that process.? The advantage is that I don’t get taxed on the capital gain, and I get a full tax deduction on the market value of stock donated.

I do almost all of my charitable giving via appreciated stock.? It works well.? Given the volatility of the markets, for those that have a diversified portfolio, and a dedicated reason to give to charity, it is a free lunch.? I marvel each? year at the ways that I eliminate capital gains, while still managing to make good money in stocks over the long haul.

Recent Portfolio Actions

Recent Portfolio Actions

It has been too long since I updated my portfolio, so here goes:

New Buys:

3/12/2010????? Seneca Foods Corp Cl A

5/10/2010????? PPL Corp

5/10/2010????? Sempra Energy

5/10/2010????? Constellation Energy

New Sales:

5/10/2010????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

5/10/2010????? Canadian National

Stocks removed for tax purposes:

10/15/2009????? SABESP

1/5/2010????????? SABESP

5/10/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

Rebalancing Buys:

11/4/2009??????? Valero Energy Corp

12/29/2009????? Ensco International Inc

1/25/2010??????? Nam Tai Electronics

2/8/2010????????? SABESP

2/10/2010??????? National Western Life Ins

5/4/2010????????? Total ADR

5/4/2010????????? Archer Daniels Midland

5/6/2010????????? Noble Corporation

Rebalancing Sales:

10/19/2009????? Conoco Phillips

10/22/2009????? Noble Corporation

10/23/2009????? Ensco International Inc

11/5/2009??????? Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

1/4/2010????????? National Presto Inds Inc

1/5/2010????????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

1/8/2010????????? Alliant Energy Corp

1/8/2010????????? Canadian National

3/1/2010????????? Safety Ins Group Inc

3/12/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

4/13/2010??????? Oracle Corporation

4/13/2010??????? Safeway Inc

4/13/2010??????? Northrop Grumman Corp

4/14/2010??????? Shoe Carnival Inc

4/14/2010??????? SABESP

4/14/2010??????? Ensco International Inc

5/3/2010????????? Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

5/6/2010????????? Magna Intl Inc Cl A

Thoughts

1)? I try not to trade too much.? For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.? As it is, for seven months, I have not made a lot of trades.

2) I tried to take some cyclicality off of the table on 5/10.? I end up with more utility exposure, but less of industrials and retail.? Having the portfolio 20% or so in utilities is quite a statement.? Utilities are designed for volatile conditions, when the degree of inflation is uncertain, because utilities have inflation passthrough on rates, while they are defensive in deflation.

3) Assurant and National Western are double weights.? The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.? Note that National Western is quite illiquid.? Do not place market orders to buy or sell.

4) In terms of balance sheets, and industry factors, this is my most conservative portfolio ever.

5) I still don?t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

6) I had some runners-up in my analyses: EIX DPL VVC

7 ) I think my portfolio is cheaper and more defensive now.

8 ) I have roughly 20% in cash, which is my limit for bearishness.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): ADM AIZ ALL CB CEG COP CSC CVX D DIIB ESV GPC IBA LNT NE NOC NPK NTE NWLI ORCL PEP PPL PRE RGA SAFT SBS SCG SENEA SRE SWY TOT VLO

3/12/2010 Seneca Foods Corp Cl A
5/10/2010 PPL Corp
5/10/2010 Sempra Energy
5/10/2010 Constellation Energy
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