China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks http://t.co/qpPicyEe China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff http://t.co/w2hSozQL China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
Debating a ?Hard Landing? http://t.co/NMnYk2XX friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a ?hard landing? in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data http://t.co/BMj7ux0T Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012
Market Dynamics
The Nature of a Crowded Trade http://t.co/sf1phJjP A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
A Market Lacking Diversification http://t.co/khXUVjaL Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 http://t.co/FdIZTltW Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? http://t.co/iu0Pw8Ty Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… http://t.co/ZiuzWIo5 Mar 30, 2012
Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors http://t.co/ZrjMCKCz Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance http://t.co/Eh9tHEX6 The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… http://t.co/Dis34ql2 Mar 27, 2012
What Will Replace the 401(k)? http://t.co/miLAuoYc How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke?s Comments http://t.co/D7sORuIU Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 http://t.co/XHwxzxNO Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012
Asset Management
Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients http://t.co/O1ZuMvX8 And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: http://t.co/la8d29my Mar 31, 2012
Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each http://t.co/Yufla6Jk The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM 😉 $$ Mar 31, 2012
The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes http://t.co/ZL7dVpjO Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: http://t.co/zioono6R Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals http://t.co/4LlAExBt Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers http://t.co/4MUyNRYs Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… http://t.co/DJkH6E4W Mar 28, 2012
The Measured Approach to Value http://t.co/XiZOUMOn Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision http://t.co/zJVmCFMa The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption http://t.co/imKDcElR There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
Found PDF slide presentation: http://t.co/0GfhME7m The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern http://t.co/JYpanHTu Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012
Monetary Policy
@kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
@kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
@kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
What Does Bernanke Know? http://t.co/LydpOqk1 Introduces “The Guy Rate” http://t.co/zNVeUYmP Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless http://t.co/NWKHcpCD In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of ?13 Bankers? & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
Housing bubbles and interest rates http://t.co/9TfzMpt2 Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012
Banking & Finance
FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis http://t.co/RQQZfHTz Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
Geithner?s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco http://t.co/Eg9BjcgE Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate http://t.co/HOy8TOof British Bankers? Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
Branson?s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks http://t.co/bPcD8im7 Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh? http://t.co/wK3HyopV Mar 29, 2012
Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? http://t.co/AUEVqxWQ Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street http://t.co/eStszd7i At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
@BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market http://t.co/WYQGAVVx +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe http://t.co/pYWwgLq2 How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
A Bailout by Another Name http://nyti.ms/GRTNMM GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
Banks? preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank http://t.co/wjHW0nyv Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
MF?s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says http://t.co/cYaT9sHy The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ http://t.co/0X8ZQMMH Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
@EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
@EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
The Age of the Shadow Bank Run http://t.co/deJRQGgy Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments http://t.co/yHQZ1r3u Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
Three?s a Crowd http://t.co/KHtbrqpe Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012
Pensions
Brazil?s pension system http://t.co/90O97tQ4 They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
@AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
@AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012
Politics
Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 http://t.co/K0x9go0T Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
The Rejection of Austerity Begins http://t.co/CgWKa9x6 Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% http://t.co/KgW2d76E When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out http://t.co/cMvKHR20 B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
Contra: Court Can?t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law http://t.co/5Yp2o8tB Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
Death Tax Defying http://t.co/FrkL5yLB Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years http://t.co/PCM7ldiG Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012
US Economy
Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red http://t.co/GApb0xie When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
US coal production declines as industry faces further stress http://t.co/l3WpZtDC Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls http://t.co/JsgIdewr In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth http://t.co/vHWs9lwB $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL http://t.co/qQZ1Dsj2 Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations http://t.co/CvptYPhU Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
@valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down http://t.co/eJCEEdvy @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012
Miscellaneous
Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: http://t.co/UHdFL0Eu How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests http://t.co/l8c6MMpA This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees http://t.co/lmq2AoZG Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012
Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllM Mar 24, 2012
The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012
@fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
China
Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
@Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
@Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
@Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
Europe
Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
@Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
@Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
Rest of the World
Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
Insurance
@CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
@CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
Fixed Income
Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
Exchange Traded Products
“@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
@amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
@amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
Individual Equities
Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
@merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
+1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012
Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
$AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
Money Market Funds
@MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
@MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
@MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
@MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
Market Dynamics
The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
@byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
Politics
Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
@traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
Regulation
Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
@carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
Economics
Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
@The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012
Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
Miscellaneous
@merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
@TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
Central Banking
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?? Been using FRED since it was a bulletin board in 1991. Great job, FRED team! http://t.co/kksvwllMMar 24, 2012
?? The Villain http://t.co/yYReRb4r On Bernanke, the man who expanded the power of the Fed far beyond constitutional limits, if there r any $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth http://t.co/3LQUTGji Yes Ben, we will spend more while we are inverted $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Fed?s Evans Calls for Stronger Commitment to Low Rates http://t.co/vSKfU36q Read paper; don’t buy it. ARIMA, no out of sample tests $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? That crisis created a very sharp move up in rates http://t.co/jfNAVN3o $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Bernanke: the man, the legacy and the law http://t.co/zA7OeFc4 ?courts have shied away from developing jurisprudence on monetary policy.? $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @fatdaz It is my firm belief that no economic entity can dominate entirely; central banks have been destroyed b4; will happen again $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Masters of the Universe Start to Challenge Ben Bernanke http://t.co/31Pr1yrQ Markets are more powerful than Central Banks, watch out Fed! Mar 23, 2012
?? European Banks Would Have Passed Fed?s Stress Test http://t.co/z5bCBeYy Ultimate insult 4 stringency of Fed’s stress tests $$ #devildetails Mar 20, 2012
?? Bernanke Stands to Gain Capital-Market Experts With Nominees http://t.co/oX8xOdEU We need some people that doubt neoclassical economics $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Bernanke Returns to Academic Roots to Justify Fed?s Existence http://t.co/ORfma5sE Safe audiences let him talk publicly w/little risk $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets http://t.co/CQu827KD Ignores E-Zone contagion, increase in int rate volatility, etc $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Bernanke: “I Want to Bring Back Irrational Exuberance” http://t.co/p0qlQwXe @brucekrasting on overheating in some debt asset classes $$ Mar 19, 2012
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China
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?? Ai Weiwei: ?You?re There but You?re Not Existing? http://t.co/d7mLxHXm RARE interview w/Ai Weiwei, describing his detention in China $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? China?s stock-market supervision suffering http://t.co/QEBPC5ya “Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited” $$ #nosurprise Mar 21, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam They can’t make money b/c of overcapacity; China invested too much in steel & global growth stinks. US exports of steel r rising $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam We only import 30% of steel used in US, 4% of which comes from China = 1.2% of steel used is from China http://t.co/FTWt80oa $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @Roy_Cam You are right there, and that’s one reason why profitability is declining in steel industry globally. $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? China to increase fuel prices 6-7% http://t.co/dBwrepDj Pump prices at record highs; biggest rise since June 2009 #ouch $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Sad Industry Mantra: Make Steel, Lose Money http://t.co/Pu9e6qFj Insanity; doing same thing, expecting different results. Future bailout $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? The State-Owned Enterprises of China http://t.co/55nvgUMs I think a “big bang” would work, but the Communist Party would never do it $$ #Mao Mar 20, 2012
?? Chinese property *alert* http://t.co/eklWzXkU Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? China’s new home prices “no longer rising” http://t.co/UL4T3yzQ The Chinese Gov’t always gets what it wants, until it gets too much of it $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Chinese Companies Forced to Falsify Data, Government Says http://t.co/tH0MUiYn AN example of why I don’t trust Chinese economic data. $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? @Xiphos_Trading Don’t know if there will be a crash or not, but there has been a lot of malinvestment in China, like Late 80s Japan $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Europe
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?? Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves http://t.co/qoGmGl7E Yields backing up in the Spanish bond market; this could be the next crisis $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Euro-Zone Banks Get Show of Faith http://t.co/ZWqd8Df5 US MMFs begin adding back yieldy E-zone bank CP $$ #wedontlearnwereallydontlearn Mar 24, 2012
?? On second thought, hold off moving that business to Ireland http://t.co/Bdu6ezon Ireland heading into recession; possibility of default? $$ Mar 23, 2012
?? @Mapsofworld Gun to the head, I think it fails entirely, but that opinion is not held with high probability $$ Mar 22, 2012
?? @Mapsofworld If the E-zone doesn’t move 2a full fiscal union, the Euro will either fail entirely, or become the currency of a smaller group Mar 22, 2012
?? The Safe Haven of the Nordic Currencies Is No More http://t.co/FquH5ZWW It’s a little early to get categorical about this $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? A Wall St. Firm Advises Greece, With Discretion http://t.co/Y12GeNZq $BLK is one powerful firm that many govts in crisis turn 2 4 help $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading http://t.co/qV197Px1 What good r Swiss banks if no secrecy, tax evasion $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Germany on a Different Track http://t.co/Gl3BNXBA While Much of EZone Deals W/Busts, Property Prices r Rising in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Mar 20, 2012
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Rest of the World
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?? Israel Billionaires Put Own Interest Ahead of Holders http://t.co/QSTpBn6E What’s mine is mine; what’s yours is negotiable $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Late Shah?s Son Selected As Iran?s Person Of The Year http://t.co/phWmAFRQ This is VOA so take it w/a grain of salt; still funny 2thinkabout Mar 24, 2012
?? Latin American Nations in Worse Shape for Crisis, IDB Says http://t.co/zlZvDJi4 “result of lower budget surpluses b4 interest payments” $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? What is the real rate of interest telling us? http://t.co/Vbk13I02 Excess capacity in devel world post bubble pop, send cap 2 emerg mkts Mar 20, 2012
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Insurance
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?? @CflGator Life companies should be simple, but product design exploded to the point where reserving can’t keep up; I own only 1 life co. Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator Variable & Universal life products have secondary gtee issues; there r a variety of long dated term products w/rsv issues $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator and P&C insurance — life insurance is capital intensive; they are sticking with their simplest biz, aside from long-tail P&C $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator It really depends; they wrote a lot of complex life products. On the bright side, a company in runoff is a cash cow. $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? @CflGator That’s the tough Q. $HIG offered significant secondary guarantees when they were the #1 annuity writer. May not b prop reserved $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Hartford Shares Jump On Split, Analysts Like It Too http://t.co/APFbv4UA Not so fast on $HIG; regulators must approve a split; c my cmmt Mar 21, 2012
?? Should Hartford?s Annuity Holders Be Worried? http://t.co/HfuZO3QO Probably not; small annuitants have protection from guaranty funds $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents http://t.co/rHkg68Lw I’m always skeptical of products w/high commissions & surrender charges $$ Mar 19, 2012
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Fixed Income
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?? Why Fixed Income Funds May Fall Short http://t.co/cHmF3hOj On the difficulties of combating tracking error in fixed income ETFs. $$ Mar 24, 2012
?? Top Junk Pummels Treasuries for Safest Profits http://t.co/E5vl2qHB That’s the rearview mirror; will be harder to squeeze more returns out Mar 21, 2012
?? The differentiation of Agency MBS risk profiles http://t.co/IJN2mbCm Interesting to see long avg life on high coupon underwater mortgages $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Bond Bear Market Yet to Roar http://t.co/oNENX9jc The selloff has been piddling so far, has not affected equities, & it may reverse $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Do High Yield Bonds Know Something Stocks Don?t? http://t.co/986Evuok Equities & Inv Grade corps outperforming HY Corps- call provisions? $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? RE: @thearmotrader Thanks, you did the post that I wanted to do.? Now I just have to point to it. http://t.co/Ru22nvom Mar 19, 2012
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Exchange Traded Products
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?? “@HerbGreenberg mentions that once the creation/redemption mechanism ?breaks? (my word, not his), that the ETF/ETN sh? http://t.co/jxK0bZfX Mar 23, 2012
?? RE: Not likely, but maybe.? If they were forced to see that they were getting a negative (or very low positive) yield? http://t.co/nnxLt2oj Mar 23, 2012
?? Exchange-Traded Notes Are Worse Than You Think http://t.co/FAO4IS3H Path-dependent fees, shadow NAVs, high fees, tracking error, credit risk Mar 21, 2012
?? Who Uses Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Anyway? http://t.co/cYpkVMr5 Retail owns 80%+. Normal ETFs r mostly held by institutions $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Know Your Client ? Leveraged ETF Version http://t.co/gqPtiZtF Doesn’t matter if leverage is internal or external, client needs come first $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Money Managers Serving Clients First, Ego Second http://t.co/gY9bd1iR Using the investment vehicles of competing firms — a good thing $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? RE: @finadd “Our results indicate that the extensive purchases of risky private-label mortgage-backed securities by t? http://t.co/cn5TM1cR Mar 20, 2012
?? @amy_calistri at the levels implied by the CEF pricing at some funds, it would shave the yield 3% $DHF $MAV $HIX, 5% $PHT, 12% $PHK $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? @amy_calistri Right. I watch the premiums on credit-sensitive CEFs as a measure of frothiness. If the underlying at some HY CEFs were bot + Mar 19, 2012
?? Anybody know what was up with $EFT today? Floating-rate loan CEF up 4%+, Closed near par last Friday… odd. $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? ‘Junk’ ETFs: Tread Lightly http://t.co/lXftKjwB Check the Price vs the NAV before you buy; also, if w/ds start, index bonds will get hit Mar 19, 2012
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Individual Equities
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?? Leon Black?s Bid Gets No Respect as Great Wolf Surges http://t.co/kqS6pNyU Used 2call this stock “little dog;” badly managed frm beginning Mar 24, 2012
?? @merrillmatter Bezos is scary-smart. I don’t own $AMZN either $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Just watched it. Wow, very impressive RT @merrillmatter: Skynet shall be renamed SkyBezos — Order Fetch http://t.co/6l9R9bHn $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? +1, ugh RT @abnormalreturns: [post] America officially ran out of good corporate names today. http://t.co/lLGEmeAB $ABT $KFT $AAPL $NKE $MCD Mar 21, 2012
?? You’re on a roll today @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog soon our robot overlords will deliver our bread and circuses to us in the Bezos Colosseum Mar 21, 2012
?? No RT @merrillmatter: @AlephBlog I want to start a consultancy that veto’s stupid company names. Would your anti-consultancy veto that? 🙂 Mar 21, 2012
?? Amazon Wrings Profit From Fulfillment as Spending Soars http://t.co/McHUqMhe Tough work 4 laborers, though. $AMZN pushes pretty hard $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Kraft to Be Renamed Mondelez After Grocery Unit Is Spun Off http://t.co/GONE6x47 Pronounced ?Mohn-dah-LEEZ.? Sigh, who got paid 4 this? $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? The 400% Man’s New Big Bet http://t.co/33rHut9y Implicitly a bet that $BRKa will always be able to buy back stock @ 1.1x book value $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? In a Major Restructuring, $HPQ To Combine Printer and PC Groups http://t.co/Aj3zaKaY FD: +HPQ; seems like a marginal idea, maybe works $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? Why $HPQ Really Needs A CEO Succession Plan http://t.co/hkPDVkAy Good cultures should promote from within; HP used to have that $$ FD: +HPQ Mar 20, 2012
?? Buffett Message Is ?Do as I Say, Not as I Do? http://t.co/Gcblc8oZ Alice Schroeder very acidic on Buffett; half right & half wrong $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? $AAPL to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash http://t.co/uxf6jEBP About time, if there aren’t opps 2use the $$ Mar 19, 2012
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Money Market Funds
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?? @MarcHochstein Thanks, I found the CFA Institutes comment today, and their view is similar 2 mine in some ways: http://t.co/8yPLcXfX $$ Mar 22, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein investment restrictions moved back to 2008 norms. The ability 2 have credit events frees MMFs to pursue best advantage $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein My idea will work 4 MMFs using inv policies prior 2 2008. The MMF folks aren’t earning $$ now, but they could with + Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein After reading this: http://t.co/aUoaN4kb Ask them, what if you traded Merkel’s idea 4 a loosening of investment rules? $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein 1 more thing; if they have any sympathy toward my idea, I live near DC & would be willing to testify to the SEC $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? I still think my proposal, one of the few compromise proposals out there would work best of all. Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Having been a life actuary, most regulatory progress happens when actuaries talk w/smarter regulators & forge compromise Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Does that help? MMFs are just saying “We r fine, nothing needs 2b done.” 2me that strategy prob loses. Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Would ask them if they have any way of stopping MMF runs on a private basis; this is the SEC goal; solve that, they leave Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein More humbly, I would ask them if they really think they can beat the SEC. SEC’s proposal is horrible, but saying “no” loses Mar 20, 2012
?? @MarcHochstein Not so humbly, I would ask that u show them my proposal that I sent to the SEC, & ask them to back it http://t.co/vuNL8tQE Mar 20, 2012
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Market Dynamics
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?? The Easy Money’s Been Made, Four Reasons for Caution http://t.co/9kAXqEU4 E-zone calm, risk tolerance+ , VIX low, FOMC may move soon Mar 24, 2012
?? ?and then all of a sudden, THE BULLS WENT BERZERK! http://t.co/bJKCVJha Lots of bullishness out there, though Howard Marks thought otherwise Mar 21, 2012
?? @byrneseyeview That’s true, & I did a presentation on that. One more complicating factor were financials, which looked cheap but weren’t $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @byrneseyeview Found it. Here: http://t.co/YupRW6yD It’s on a number of topics; it was well-received $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Contra: The Biggest Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of http://t.co/0tzkPyiA Value can’t b a bubble. Growth can b a bubble. Growth & ROE meanrevert Mar 21, 2012
?? Is this time really different? http://t.co/eePs0aIV It’s never different. It’s always different. Profit margins will mean-revert; Q is when Mar 21, 2012
?? Biggs boosts bullish bets on stocks to 90% net long http://t.co/5fYQDhUC Won’t be the first 2 say this, but makes me doubt the rally $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? The Ax is Back http://t.co/B1j3f7nH @reformedbroker Reduced profits on Wall Street translates into reduced perks, bonuses & jobs $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Public Companies: The End Is Near http://t.co/KejHwYDu There r still advantages 2being publicly traded, but has eroded since Sarbox, etc $$ Mar 20, 2012
?? S&P 500 Rises to Four-Year High as Apple Plans Dividend http://t.co/RnBf9yEw $AAPL raises the div yld on the S&P 500 by 0.08%. Big! $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Shares and shibboleths http://t.co/CspyJCNX The equity premium over a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is ~1%/yr IMO $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble http://t.co/2q3CPx4g Been saying this for years, indexing changes market dynamics, what happens @ reversal? $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Politics
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?? Why Are Your Neighbors Just Like You? http://t.co/0lcPOuLZ On the demise of really knowing your neighbors; we try 2 reach out; few others do Mar 24, 2012
?? @traderscrucible @interfluidity My blog (& Steve’s) have always had a strong public policy emphasis. Dreaming, but we suggest better policy. Mar 23, 2012
?? Agent Based Models http://t.co/0etJ20fL “Why not keep it simple, and just say, you pay an asset tax for every dollar over $100B?” $$ Mar 23, 2012
?? The Warren Buffett Chain Letter http://t.co/31FFSrmm Draconian adjustments. What Buffett did & didn’t say. 3% deficit ejects Congress $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Migration of sovereign debt from private hands to public institutions http://t.co/rQbDTXg3 &the debt sits til liquidity is needed -> crisis! Mar 21, 2012
?? To Stay On Top, The US Must Invest In Research Universities http://t.co/P4kyUqY0 FD: + $INTC; do it w/yr own $$ not taxes; c my comment Mar 20, 2012
?? RT @BarbarianCap: “cnbc: California Cities Scrambling to Avoid Becoming Insolvent” > the die was cast years ago; clowns, path depende … Mar 20, 2012
?? Stopping the National Debt: A Movement Led By a Cowboy, a Colonel, & a Citizens’ Cavalry http://t.co/frqAXCpy Natl Debt Relief Amendment Mar 20, 2012
?? Who is REALLY paying in the $25bil TBTF mortgage settlement http://t.co/T2h1B5CO $5B from banks, rest MBS holders eg pension plans, insurers Mar 19, 2012
?? The JOBS Act: Plutocracy in Action http://t.co/Fjo3Ppet Another article on the previous topic; don’t downgrade information quality $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Small Biz Jobs Act Is a Bipartisan Bridge Too Far http://t.co/AwBXg184 Would not mess w/securities laws in that way to create growth $$ Mar 19, 2012
?? Public Unions Send Medical Bills to Taxpayers http://t.co/Lb2XgAv9 CA Sup Ct foolishly makes healthcare nonreducible. CA will die $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? As Unions Lose Their Grip, Indiana Lures Manufacturing Jobs http://t.co/vj177CT2 Like my article that few like http://t.co/WgdN7Mmq $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? Pension Legislation Could Cut Contributions, Hike Taxes http://t.co/Tj1UlUz8 Stupid proposals that weaken DB pensions, companies r strongnow Mar 18, 2012
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Regulation
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?? Where is the Center for Audit Quality When We Actually Could Use It? http://t.co/jWt09bcw JOBS Act: destroy info reliability to create jobs Mar 23, 2012
?? Fed?s Fisher Says ?Too-Big-to-Fail? Problem Remains http://t.co/eLvHGmXt Richard Fisher favors breakup of the biggest banks. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? @carney just read your piece on the net capital rule. Similar to my piece last November http://t.co/tl28NPku Good piece. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Top Court’s Patent Rejection Alarms the Biotech Industry http://t.co/oK11WlvR ’bout time we forced a more fundamental review of patents Mar 21, 2012
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Economics
?
?? Solar?s 80% Plunge Hurts Utilities From Hawaii to Spain http://t.co/m9eACVTp Overcapacity drives down prices of PV panels for now. $$ Mar 21, 2012
?? Mean Time Between Failures http://t.co/zkT0z9cX The “recovery” is getting long in the tooth, eg it may end soon; graph: http://t.co/xOHA1IYA Mar 20, 2012
?? Obama?s tax hikes threaten a new US recession http://t.co/uNHwBpeJ Looking @ 4 more years of divided govt & stalemate $$ #debtbombgrows Mar 20, 2012
?? @The_Dumb_Money I would have liked to see the Banks/Etc. who owned the servicers bear more of the cost $$\ Mar 20, 2012
?? Partial equilibrium intuitions about choice http://t.co/215kIrmS @interfluidity more difficult to solve general equilibrium Qs than partial Mar 19, 2012
?? Understanding the New Price of Oil http://t.co/TaMTaneR No surprise here; most cheap oil has been found, the price of oil should rise $$ Mar 18, 2012
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Miscellaneous
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?? @merrillmatter Factoid: 100,000,000,000 to 1 for a monkey to type the word “banana” from random typewriter jumping Mar 21, 2012
?? Is a Calorie a Calorie? http://t.co/4hyTfSvr Yes, but different nutrients come w/calories. Also, a unit of fat has 2x cals vs carbs/protein Mar 21, 2012
?? Madoff’s Lament: I Was An Honest Money Manager Once http://t.co/OGp2xRHR The outside world should ignore Madoff now. Attention feeds him. Mar 21, 2012
?? On Slime and Water http://t.co/8iezy0FK Pink Slime in burgers, and shortages of potable water in most of the globe, except Canada & US. $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? The NSA Is Building the Country?s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say) http://t.co/iUsN5D0t Time to increase encryption key sizes $$ Mar 18, 2012
?? @TimABRussell I always read all the books I review; in rare cases when I don’t, I tell readers that I skimmed it. $$ Mar 18, 2012
Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower http://t.co/q1vpz9dh @reformedbroker interview previews his book: http://t.co/Yigg2sEE $$ Feb 24, 2012
Why CLO managers continue to struggle http://t.co/a13j8jVG Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012
My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter http://t.co/VOvbqab3 DIstressed bond mgrs get itchy in bull phase & buy new junk @ par Feb 24, 2012
SEC IFRS Plan Endorsement http://t.co/8xguvs2G IFRS is not worth giving up comparability or sovereignty for. Project is a total loser. $$ Feb 24, 2012
Very cool, congrats RT @Finovate: @AlphaClone to offer Alternative Alpha ETF from U.S. Bancorp http://t.co/srufb3qd Feb 23, 2012
SEC May Ticket Speeding Traders http://t.co/oNCbF7pa Worthy of an experiment like the kind they did to study the “uptick rule” $$ Feb 23, 2012
AQR?s Aaron Brown on Red-Blooded Risk http://t.co/ZM7hn5P4 When I was a bond mgr, could sense some aspects of risk listening 2 broker’s tone Feb 23, 2012
The Volcker Rule is not going to bring your house back http://t.co/ADKMABfE Prop trading was not a leading cause of the financial crisis. $$ Feb 23, 2012
Pimco Said to Quit Mortgage Bond Group http://t.co/YsQZs1IE Feels wrong parties (their clients) r paying 4 bad servicing,instead of banks Feb 23, 2012
?If you want, I can dig up an old research piece on analyst coverage — there are basically 3 factors that explain 70? http://t.co/tBinshJJ Feb 21, 2012
Stressed VAR is still a “protractor in the jungle” http://t.co/GRGgwvsd Risk management sh/not b done w/central measures but stress tests $$ Feb 21, 2012
How One Company Teaches Employees the ABCs of Finance http://t.co/fqO19foq More companies should do this, they would b more profitable. $$ Feb 18, 2012
Gross Fund at 66% Premium Shows Pimco Allure in Quest for Yield http://t.co/LY8Rv4SS Yield illusion distracts many investors. Avoid it. $$ Feb 17, 2012
Read:Which three of DOL’s new 401(k) rules represent the biggest land mines for financial advisors and plan sponsors? http://t.co/ZVoMPmQu Feb 15, 2012
The 400% Man http://t.co/nrRhYIZl Wish I could meet some of his disappointed investors who came to kick the tires and were disappointed. Feb 15, 2012
Contra:Foot-Dragging on IFRS Decision Could Strip SEC of Power http://t.co/VNUFhWD5 The US could lose representation on IASB. Good, drop out Feb 14, 2012
Notes from iGlobal’s Global Distressed Investing Summit: Part 2 http://t.co/9iOty0Iz Leveraged loan market seems to be in decent shape $$ Feb 14, 2012
Pimco: $25 Billion Foreclosure Deal to Hit Pensions Harder Than Banks http://t.co/DKFtMI9B Gives MBS buyers a reason 2 sue originators $$ Feb 13, 2012
Missing at MF: $1.6 Billion http://t.co/QSUMYbNO Included for the 1st time is roughly $700 million in client money residing in the UK $$ Feb 13, 2012
Stockbrokers: A Guide to Private Placement Due Diligence http://t.co/tbwtu6Jy Illiquid investments are ways to cheat average people. $$ Feb 11, 2012
Why illiquid? Can’t recover the commission otherwise.? Can deceive people that their investment is worth more than it? http://t.co/cYjvUhWx Feb 11, 2012
Market Strategy
Jim Stack was right, and he?s still bullish http://t.co/GfEqtTKl Basically a forward P/E plus momentum argument, & lack of sharp falls $$ Feb 24, 2012
S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper on Record Profits http://t.co/DWPGz5Y2 Makes a P/E argument; profit mrgns will eventually revert, may take a while Feb 23, 2012
The dangers of dividend-paying stocks http://t.co/FymTmAAi Hint: they are stocks. No maturity date, no certain cash flow, low BK priority $$ Feb 23, 2012
Falkenblog: Low Vol Commodity Timing Strategy http://t.co/M4FFRoCx Low volatility seems to work in a large number of areas, this is one $$ Feb 23, 2012
Retro Investing?Look Back to Get Ahead http://t.co/vYiPCu9J The 50s, w/post-WWII financial repression, recurs as a current investing meme $$ Feb 22, 2012
The Intelligent Investor: Are Index Funds Messing Up the Markets? http://t.co/VAoFtksw May also be traders following each other $$ Feb 21, 2012
If history is any indication, high dividend stock outperformance should continue http://t.co/C5GaWmW8 Uses 40s & 50s as analogy $$ Feb 20, 2012
Breakout or consolidation? http://t.co/GTSkBjIT Many market seem to be at inflection points. Which way will they go? Wildcards: EZone, China Feb 20, 2012
RE: @alea_ Interesting analysis.? I would be wary of teasing too much out of the cluster analysis of sector correlati? http://t.co/zirdOJ8v Feb 18, 2012
MORGAN STANLEY: January Exhibited This Tell-Tale Sign Of A Market Top http://t.co/IQqidpUE When everything rises at once, look out! $$ Feb 18, 2012
Apple Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks http://t.co/2dgfjfPq Earnings quality has declined, and so has the PE multiple $$ Feb 18, 2012
@ampressman Common summary stat 4 acctg quality 4 $AAPL Net Operating Accruals / Assets, has been deteriorating 4 last 7 years + Feb 18, 2012
@ampressman $AAPL acctg used to be very conservative, now modestly liberal by that statistic. It’s a bad direction, not a bad position, yet Feb 18, 2012
Should the Rich Invest Like Colleges? http://t.co/M9OaPEPA Better question: what are your goals? Do you have an infinite horizon? $$ Feb 18, 2012
High Yield Bonds as Equity Indicator | The Reformed Broker http://t.co/OXUtZrWG Meet my friends & former colleagues Ed Meigs & Sean Slein $$ Feb 17, 2012
When Earnings Slow, Focus on Big Cap, Quality http://t.co/zjD3RPKA High quality is the place to be at present, credit cycle shifting some $$ Feb 16, 2012
A Lesser Known Indicator http://t.co/8oivTJFl Cash enters market through IPOs, employee grants, & exits through cash buyouts, buybacks $$ Feb 16, 2012
Parabolas have 2 end somewhere $$ RT @ReformedBroker: $AAPL sold off because people were getting impatient with how slowly it was moving up. Feb 15, 2012
FPA Capital?s Bryan Beats Peers Embracing Oil Volatility http://t.co/7ebuGmrb A clever focus on absolute retruns, w/a long horizon $$ Feb 15, 2012
Paulson Gives Activism a Go http://t.co/dkHb3cht Not as easy as it looks w/ $HIG. Acctg may not fairly capture variable liabilities $$ Feb 15, 2012
RE: @SoberLook DB hedges its bets.? Average years rarely happen in high yield, they are either good or bad. http://t.co/0C51uulu Feb 14, 2012
THE 1987 MYTH?. http://t.co/mHSU4nM3 ?Illusion of stability within disequilibrium? Very well said, in one short phrase. $$ Feb 14, 2012
America Inc. Faces Margin Stall http://t.co/RbqvqbT9 US companies have begun to see rising costs eat into the bottom line. Finally. $$ Feb 13, 2012
Hulbert: Insiders Selling at Heavy Pace http://t.co/qOPk2cbY Just another straw blowing in the wind, but insiders usually have good sense $$ Feb 10, 2012
Greece
Greek PSI outcomes tree: credit event probability at 93% http://t.co/jcLBc04c Clever grraphic shows high likelihood of Gk CDS triggering. $$ Feb 23, 2012
The market is now pricing in Greek sovereign CDS trigger http://t.co/w5vJ42Fa Upfront prices for Greek CDS moving up $$ Feb 22, 2012
Despite Pact, Unease Lingers for Greece http://t.co/Urp7mmag “Many Problems Remain Even Under Best-Case Scenarios” Shrink, shrink… $$ Feb 22, 2012
Greek Rescue Is Not the End of the Story http://t.co/IOCVcCTb Won’t save Greece on its own & there r other fringe nations 2 deal with $$ Feb 20, 2012
ECB Greek Plan May Hurt Bondholders While Triggering Debt Swaps http://t.co/Aya9urfV ECB may get better treaqtment than private holders $$ Feb 20, 2012
So, what would your plan for Greece be? http://t.co/SAd2f28O Play the game, and let Keynes sneer @ u as u attempt 2 solve the impossible $$ Feb 18, 2012
Greek Economy Shrinking Rapidly http://t.co/VzXi375M And it may shrink more rapidly depending on what the rest of Europe does $$ Feb 14, 2012
Eurozone
ECB’s Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets http://t.co/r0ZCmYpb Banks become dependent on ECB, bank bondholders more subordinated $$ Feb 24, 2012
European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash http://t.co/Re5TjLR5 ?There is a ?lose-lose? air around the ECB?s auction next week,? $$ Feb 24, 2012
The Eurozone should be prepared for a new government in France http://t.co/qGFPC20S And that govt will be more hostile to current actions $$ Feb 22, 2012
Spain Sinks Deeper Into Periphery on Debt Rise http://t.co/wkuef6tS As debts grow higher, the probability of escape gets lower. $$ Feb 22, 2012
Iron Lady Merkel Bucks German Street on Greek Aid http://t.co/Wc95xI47 Strategy working 4 now, but what if colleagues lose their seats? $$ Feb 20, 2012
Moody?s Cuts European Sovereigns http://t.co/GvJuES7t Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta all cut. France & UK -> neg outlook Feb 15, 2012
Unlisted in euroland http://t.co/AQQrJMUf Didn’t catch this in Jan. Private bonds can offered 2 ECB as collateral; helps French banks $$ Feb 13, 2012
The Well-off Fringe Nations
Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness http://t.co/P4BH8HKN If the debt problem is not severe, austerity. If it is severe (Iceland) default Feb 22, 2012
Nordic Currencies Stung in Crisis http://t.co/teorxG1P Much of the world, looking for a store of value, drive fringe currencies up $$ Feb 21, 2012
Canada housing market: poised 4 ‘severe correction,’ George Athanassakos says http://t.co/05kaVIAD Canada is used to the boom/bust cycle $$ Feb 21, 2012
@joshuademasi You’re right, but most of the fringe currencies are facing the same dilemma; who to favor, consumers vs exporters, etc… $$ Feb 21, 2012
Israel Safest as Investors Discount War Threat http://t.co/3oXTlILj Well-capitalized banks & balanced economy w/much high tech $$ #warrisk Feb 20, 2012
A hedge fund bets big on a Canadian mega quarry http://t.co/k7OZBC9u Property rights r tough here. What if an existing farmer tried this? $$ Feb 18, 2012
Australia?s Gillard Urged to Increase Mortgage Purchases http://t.co/ylsCuvq4 A mistake, far better to let the market fail. $$ Feb 17, 2012
You’re right, reminds me of an old piece I wrote: http://t.co/XkgO7z7A Thanks $$ RT @joshuademasi: The 5 stages of USD grieving ! Feb 15, 2012
Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S., Europe http://t.co/X9jRPy6q Wealthy Chinese know their govt, thus the need for flight $$ Feb 22, 2012
China?s FDI and Trade Outlook Horrible Says Commerce Spokesperson http://t.co/LIlvmxIL Hard 4 Comm Party 2command domestic consumption up $$ Feb 18, 2012
‘Mother of all bubbles’ will pop China stocks: GMO http://t.co/OMENKZOI Low prob: China successfully navigating soft landing out of a bubble Feb 18, 2012
China’s excess exports turn negative http://t.co/CiLgTKqC Key Q: how will China grow its economy by stimulating domestic consumption? $$ #uh Feb 18, 2012
Too many bearish on China, but I’m bearish also.? What to do? Seek out China bulls.? If their arguments sound dumb, d? http://t.co/vrhUIdsh Feb 17, 2012
The Silent Victims of the U.S.-China Currency War http://t.co/6DXAnE3m Smaller nations get caught in crossfire of competitive devaluation $$ Feb 17, 2012
China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015 http://t.co/5Va8kiLr I think it take some losses before DC takes this seriously. $$ Feb 17, 2012
China?s Tenuous Hold on Peace http://t.co/dOFr68tL Tibet is restive, China blames its problems on the economic mismanagement of foreigners Feb 14, 2012
Glimpses of a Chinese Town Under Lockdown http://t.co/AFoW0zsM some reporters managed to get there to document the heavy security presence Feb 14, 2012
Liu Mingkang Outlines the Reforms China needs to Undertake http://t.co/L0cXMoIf Will the communist party willingly reduce its power in China Feb 13, 2012
Japan
Japanese Equities Herald Return to Inflation http://t.co/rxlt5OhI If Japan bond market breaks, ructions will be felt the world over. $$ Feb 23, 2012
Energy imports will pressure Japan’s trade deficit http://t.co/lieDm3T4 But, Japan has a current account surplus from its net foreign assets Feb 23, 2012
Japan Suggests No Quick G-20 Deal on IMF Funding http://t.co/RZYF5EB2 non-European members of the IMF waiting on the Europeans to act $$ Feb 22, 2012
Tokyo Small-Caps Set for Longest Win Streak http://t.co/mD3ySrzh Unnoticed but true, look @ this CEF: http://t.co/VcdMQDxL FD: long $JOF Feb 22, 2012
Yen Slumps After Japan Expands Bond Buying http://t.co/L6yImwzC Competitive currency devaluations driving Forex $$ #beggarthyneighbor Feb 15, 2012
Iran
Japan Refiners Said to Stall on Iran Deals http://t.co/uEq1DYtb Life is harder on those that need Iranian oil, like India, China, Japan $$ Feb 21, 2012
Iran Says It Loaded Locally Made Fuel to Nuke http://t.co/6HkMaEFj Not sure I believe this, but if it’s true, the Israelis will know 😉 $$ Feb 15, 2012
Iran presses ahead with dollar attack http://t.co/Hd4Qtnvz Unlikely to work, but it’s all they can do w/oil transport shut down $$ Feb 14, 2012
Letter Writers Break Iranian Taboo http://t.co/M3NMfmk1 They are so desperate that they write the Ayatollah and criticize conditions. $$ Feb 14, 2012
Record Redemptions Loom Amid Akbank $1.3 Billion Loan Talks http://t.co/x5iDTSwE Never knew Turkish firms financed w/so much Short debt $$ Feb 18, 2012
Chavez Missing $10 Billion a Month by Curbing State Oil Investment http://t.co/uTG1Z8d8 PDVSA falls behind Pemex? How low can you go? $$ Feb 15, 2012
Ch?vez Opposition Faces Hard Election http://t.co/YBWi9PaW Chavez controls media & oil wealth; tough for Capriles, but he can still win. Feb 14, 2012
Gunfights in Saudi Arabia Show Spread of Tensions http://t.co/dNxhg2ij Shia in Saudi Arabia fight the govt. Biggest split in Mideast $$ Feb 14, 2012
The Real Reasons the Rich Are Moving Cash to the Caymans http://t.co/gh7d85ZA Litigation risk, and US political risk; diversify yr govts Feb 13, 2012
Federal Reserve / Monetary Policy / Fiscal Policy
Those believing the Fed is on hold for the next 3 years will be in for a rude awakening http://t.co/VYggm431 FF futures & TIPS betray mkt $$ Feb 24, 2012
Exported Inflation to Return Home, but When and in What Form http://t.co/UHT61w4Y The Fed will find it hard to shrink its balance sheet $$ Feb 24, 2012
Healthcare expenses will overwhelm the US federal budget http://t.co/lLUABMYy Suspect a deal will b driven 2 reduce benefits somehow $$ Feb 23, 2012
?Fiat Money and Collective Corruption? http://t.co/lRAa2xnG Hard money would help, the bigger problem is light regulation of banks/credit $$ Feb 23, 2012
Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors http://t.co/UtozNgly Q: Why? 2 avoid bank influence, or 2 hide bank influence? $$ Feb 21, 2012
The Race To Debase In All Its Glory http://t.co/rPtS9EqD Balance sheets of major central banks expand rapidly $$ #racetothebottom Feb 21, 2012
Wealthy Enriched by Double-Dipping U.S. Plan http://t.co/YtGTfakC Long article describing unethical use of SBA $$ . #eliminatetheSBA Feb 21, 2012
Over-regulated America http://t.co/uMKtg2W0 The home of laissez-faire is being suffocated by excessive and badly written regulation $$ Feb 18, 2012
Geithner: GOP Walked Away From Tax Overhaul – Bloomberg http://t.co/yupPqVeO Articles like this indicate another stalemate in the making $$ Feb 17, 2012
Potomac Divide Shows Foreclosures Thru Courts Slow Home-Price Recovery http://t.co/kilW75GM MD has slow foreclosures, housing mkt lags VA Feb 16, 2012
Sober Look: Regulate it all, ask questions later http://t.co/qnpfakfJ New regulations reduce the liquidity of the corporate bond market $$ Feb 16, 2012
FHA is almost broke. What will DC do when it goes critical? RT @HousingWire: FHA defaults up for ninth straight month http://t.co/TSZFHCeD Feb 15, 2012
Pentagon May Oust Troops Involuntarily to Meet Reductions in Budget Plan http://t.co/VnY4At7J Tough time 2b let go if you r a veteran $$ Feb 14, 2012
What a surprise! $$ RT @pdacosta: Bernanke’s big housing speech makes no mention of the Fed’s regulatory laxity in run-up to the crisis. Feb 10, 2012
Bonds
Contra: Should Mortgage Rates Even Be Lower? http://t.co/lODEFb1P Mortgages do not price off of Tsys, but swaps and bank bond yields $$ Feb 22, 2012
Wall Street Crowds Into Trader Joe?s http://t.co/dHZT83VK CMBS mkt getting heated; loans linked 2 retail rose to 45% 4 bonds sold in 2011 Feb 22, 2012
?Have a lot of friends who have lost a lot of money waiting for $TLT to break. FD: long TLT http://t.co/Lw6Rqn02 Feb 21, 2012
A $360 trillion confidence trick http://t.co/Kar0f3Cz I have argued that LIBOR should be based off of binding offers to borrow/lend $$ Feb 14, 2012
http://t.co/VOIG2gUk W/TIPS NY Fed concentrates on the long on-the-run & nearby, w/nominals opposite. Makes implied inflation look higher $$ Feb 10, 2012
Muni Bonds
Stockton, CA, to Weigh First Steps Toward Bankruptcy http://t.co/d2lsCmx8 Start of negotiations to reduce emplyee pensions & healthcare $$ Feb 24, 2012
Good piece, thx RT @munilass: Evaluating Chapter 9 Bankruptcy for City of Detroit: Reality Check or Turnaround Option? http://t.co/PxWo5qHA Feb 21, 2012
Yes. http://t.co/4DUVVTKi $$ RT @BarbarianCap: @munilass isn’t this the muni book that @AlephBlog reviewed very favorably a few days ago? Feb 20, 2012
Pensions
New Rules Wreak Havoc forRetirement-Plan Sponsors http://t.co/HzHWTTtL I would expect rules to be modified, else headaches 4 DC plans $$ Feb 24, 2012
@BarbarianCap Looking at the RFP, that is one of the few things *not* under consideration, pity too, because it is more important. #DumbOCPP Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap The audit is a test of methods and data, not assumptions. That’s actually pretty normal unless you an assumptions outlier $$ Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap I’ve said it many times b4, if life insurers have 2b conservative in accounting, DB plans s/b more so, but they r less so $$ Feb 23, 2012
@BarbarianCap Some cases, deals will be driven to reduce benefits, depends on state/muni laws, Ch 9 allowable; not protected by ERISA/PBGC Feb 23, 2012
Stocks
The Capabilities Premium in M&A http://t.co/9CdZIugk Long piece that explains why some mergers work; they aid organic growth & r small $$ Feb 22, 2012
Elemental to Raise $1.7 Billion Next Year to Mine Potash http://t.co/w7GNsA2H Potash pricing has been volatile lately, cross-currents $$ Feb 22, 2012
Gamestop to J.C. Penney Shut Facebook Stores: Retail http://t.co/zSui0fCf $FB may have a more difficult time w/retail than some expect $$ Feb 20, 2012
Hewlett-Packard’s Message: We’ve Been Here All Along http://t.co/vU8piGMt Note: long $HPQ . HPQ definitely sounds more certain now. $$ Feb 16, 2012
Icahn Pushing CVR?s Sale Means $1 Billion Gain for Shareholders http://t.co/TfBKGErf What refiner wants more capacity now & fertilizer? $$ Feb 16, 2012
Hedge Funds Switch Positions, While Paulson Switches Investing Style http://t.co/MznmLhci Issue w/ $HIG is value of Variable product biz $$ Feb 15, 2012
Miscellaneous
The Control Revolution And Its Discontents http://t.co/FY4XgPde There is a “sweet spot” for market efficiency, too much & things get chaotic Feb 24, 2012
The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign http://t.co/Ra1Iz65H Fall in seller confidence & decline in new distressed inventory Feb 23, 2012
Spring Lambing in UK Turns Deadly as New Virus Kills Young http://t.co/PrO4neT1 Infects pregnant sheep, cows and goats, 5% infection rate Feb 22, 2012
Midwest Farmland Prices Update for the Year 2011 http://t.co/se9DbEgB Good discussion after a good article; things r getting a little bubbly Feb 22, 2012
Finding Treasures Among Insurer’s Wreckage http://t.co/jiFZiydE Never bot Atl Mutual’s Surplus Notes, but historical curiosities, wow $$ Feb 18, 2012
@StockTwits Insurance is boring, but antiquities at the oldest companies are fascinating. Wonder what Nationwide did w/Provident Mutuals? $$ Feb 18, 2012
@StockTwits I would hold meetings every now and then in Provident Mutual’s underused antiquities room; would start good conversations $$ Feb 18, 2012
Why Is Violent Crime Declining in US Cities? http://t.co/SLgD8bEL & http://t.co/RRRI2m8X Smarter law enforcement makes DC safer. Wow! $$ Feb 18, 2012
Thanks, liked it. RT @onwrdnupwrd: you will like this one from this weeks economist http://t.co/DMqhgXBB Feb 18, 2012
Interracial Marriages in US Reach a Record http://t.co/RJjWnTso Interesting that it is more prevalent with college educated people. $$ Feb 18, 2012
Harvard Mapping My DNA Turns Scary http://t.co/m5stl0d2 Journalist learns hard things about his DNA. Would he be better off not knowing? $$ Feb 18, 2012
Groupthink: The brainstorming myth http://t.co/7VBlhzKC People do better solving problems on their own, and sharing ideas w/the group $$ Feb 18, 2012
Fear, Submission, and Authoritarianism; a Disturbing Trend http://t.co/0lb32tOw Negative social mood leads to loss of liberties $$ Feb 16, 2012
Santorum?s Electability Pitch Undermined by 2006 Senate Re-Election Loss – Bloomberg http://t.co/8xglQQPJ Shouldn’t be an issue, here’s why: Feb 15, 2012
As the late Bob Casey said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” This is true, and it is why Santorum lost to his son. $$ Feb 15, 2012
Cracking the Long-Jump Code http://t.co/MN9d9EdJ Fascinating science applied; the key seems 2b2 jump higher, not just longer $$ Feb 15, 2012
The Best Foods for Thought, Literally http://t.co/tMyLW9E2 Perhaps the Mediterranean diet can aid brain function, or a lowcal diet $$ Feb 14, 2012
Contra: Almost Half the Price of Oil is Speculative Premium http://t.co/z8t51JOl It should be impossible to so overprice such a large mkt $$ Feb 14, 2012
The Hunt Brothers thought they could corner a much smaller silver market, and were not able to do it.? The oil compan? http://t.co/MLYVH5w3 Feb 14, 2012
So, What’s Your Algorithm? http://t.co/lC4voWCI Being able 2 crunch large amounts of data can lead to more objective decisions $$ #ornot Feb 13, 2012
Trying a new format here, I think readers will like it better.? Most things are better after additional effort.? Think of this as a news links by subject post.
Economics
If you look in the back, it seems that there were 58 respondents. From page 13: Methodology & Panel Selection Invi? http://t.co/p8sVZl9g Feb 06, 2012
Will the great interest rate gamble pay off? http://t.co/hgj5XSKc People want to believe that you can get something for nothing; ain’t true. Feb 05, 2012
Central Planning at the Federal Reserve http://t.co/X8qmqU6C Fed: we can create prosperity by holding interest rates down, right? $$ #wishes Feb 05, 2012
Labor Force Participation Rate: 28-year Low http://t.co/kLgQ61iK Everyone still happy about the lower unemployment rate? $$ Feb 05, 2012
Bill Gross: Free Money Ain?t Really Free http://t.co/LXWxpxp5 It will lead to stagflation, IMO, depending on what fiscal policy does $$ Feb 05, 2012
Life & Death Proposition http://t.co/XuZS5Snn Where does credit go when it dies? Back where it came. It delevers, slows & inhibits ec growth Feb 02, 2012
US unemployment ?progress? http://t.co/WoIVZPGp If you add back the discoraged workers, all of the improvement in U-3 goes away $$ Feb 02, 2012
The Perniciousness of ZIRP http://t.co/dYlFMbLe Gonzalo Lira on how ZIRP loses effectiveness b/c people think it’ll b there a long time $$ Feb 01, 2012
Why Neoclassical Economics Doesn’t Work In The Age Of Deleveraging http://t.co/D3IAhTyv Steve Keen explains y Krugman & others r wrong $$ Feb 01, 2012
Warning: Goat Rodeo http://t.co/JQ2FV9LS Hussman makes his case that equities are overvalued and could pull back 25% $$ Feb 01, 2012
Who Owns World’s Financial Assets? & Why R US Households So Fascinated W/Stocks? http://t.co/5rp52OM4 American Exceptionalism in investing Feb 01, 2012
As an aside, that is one reason why the US net foreign debt hasn’t spiraled up. We own equities abroad & they own our debt. $$ declines + Feb 01, 2012
$$ declines reduce the value of our debts, but not the value of r foreign holdings. I think the US will come out of this crisis rel well $$ Feb 01, 2012
Housing
Home Prices Tumble http://t.co/N1gdNslr No surprise here with all of the dark supply; houses come onto mkt when ppl can bear loss $$ Feb 01, 2012
Too lazy to be knowns http://t.co/flXRR6fM I know many who understood what would happen if home RE prices fell, but none who got the size $$ Feb 01, 2012
Freddie Mac’s “inverse floater” allowed more loan origination http://t.co/5devKZ17 Other side to the Propublica story http://t.co/KjXJHU1x Feb 01, 2012
I’m no fan of the GSEs; I think they should be abolished, but the GSEs have always made a variety of bets on prepayment over time. $$ Feb 01, 2012
International
On China, Henry Kissinger and Fareed Zakaria see Domestic Tension and Risk of Geopolitical Conflict http://t.co/1bhvrI3U Ferguson is wrong. Feb 05, 2012
Tightening lending standards vary materially across the Eurozone http://t.co/ciWUK9cm Conditions tight in Italy & France, but not Germany $$ Feb 02, 2012
Japan Auto Sales Notch Record Jump http://t.co/0VzF4WST Another small bright spot. Of course, bouncing back from a low level $$ Feb 02, 2012
Socialist Hollande, Who Wants Full European Treaty Renegotiation, Increases Lead Over Sarkozy http://t.co/J3qCpZZ3 Eurozone Wild Card $$ Feb 01, 2012
Hong Kong Homes Face 25% Drop as Loans Fall in Year of Dragon http://t.co/ifg1146H And this is with wealthy mainlanders fleeing China. $$ Feb 01, 2012
Markets
RBC Takes On High Frequency Predators http://t.co/MfA5qdxm Where there is offense, there will b defense; nothing goes unanswered in the mkts Feb 05, 2012
Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views http://t.co/dOXCUMA7 Makes me think we r getting close to a turning point. Feb 02, 2012
Dividend stocks: Buyer beware http://t.co/SvMCHtCj Makes the valid & missed point: high qual div paying stocks r stocks & can lose $$ #yeah Feb 01, 2012
Credit
6 High-Yield Canaries-in-the-Coalmine http://t.co/4pz6SSQc 6 reasons y high yield is overheated http://t.co/fKnHmBqD & http://t.co/UPVev0iD Feb 02, 2012
QOTD: Regulators Watching Aggressive Yield Chasing http://t.co/iWimo3eg FINRA warns of undue risk in income seeking. Advisors take note $$ Feb 02, 2012
Contra: The Safest 7% Yield in America http://t.co/VrXoLEFH Poor analysis does not take into account the highish leverage on mtge repo $$ Feb 02, 2012
Shipping Loans Go Bad for European Banks http://t.co/y5Z0wt3R Highly glutted area w/many dead firms walking; how far down will the losses go Feb 02, 2012
Politics
Group lists top stock investments by members of Congress http://t.co/CarxUCjS Top 50 hldgs -> in top 100 cos by mkt cap. Hard2manipulate $$ Feb 05, 2012
Obama Re-Election Odds Versus the Stock Market http://t.co/F5EETcve Example of 2 variables that r correlated b/c they anticipate GDP changes Feb 05, 2012
RE: @abnormalreturns Gold is mostly political philosophy. How much control do you want the government to have over mo? http://t.co/hRxIkaoo Feb 03, 2012
Getting back to the gold standard http://t.co/pCk8Ij6j Gingrich & Ron Paul have said they would like to appoint James Grant as Fed Chairman Feb 02, 2012
Companies
Carlyle’s proposed IPO disaster http://t.co/OqGke8eN So there’s no board. Most boards don’t do much. Mgmt will have no board 2 shield them Feb 05, 2012
For These Fans, a Day With Buffett Offers Wealth of Photo Opportunities http://t.co/UpcwVKe7 I think Buffett is enjoying life more now. Feb 05, 2012
Buffett Railroad Boosts Capital Plan to $3.9B http://t.co/9XEw2gyT Buffett changes; organic investment in capital-intensive biz $$ #olddog Feb 01, 2012
Pep Boys Seen Gaining 27% as Cheapest Value Lures Bids http://t.co/GyfH7qRL Could a bidding war start? Company is undermanaged $$ Feb 01, 2012
Jefferies Allows Bonus Recipients to Swap Stock 4 Cash With 25% Discount http://t.co/pfGB3Vmc Fair way2 let employees disconnect from $JEF Feb 01, 2012
Financial Services
I’ve just started “Acts of God and Man,” by Michael Powers. In the intro, he goes through the various meanings of th? http://t.co/tX7uAlWl Feb 05, 2012
When evaluating Investment Funds, use Dollar-weighted Returns http://t.co/N5g7PI0d This is a neglcted concept that is enjoying a rebirth $$ Feb 02, 2012
After a Delay, MF Global?s Missing Money Is Traced http://t.co/4s6U8yOe Investigation moves to how to recover the $$ and who is at fault. Feb 01, 2012
http://t.co/wBbJTe3D FINRA Alert: Do you use complex products? What additional work do you do 2 assure that they are being used properly? $$ Feb 01, 2012
Banks Need Higher Interest Rates to Start Making Money http://t.co/SneRACCi Flat front end of yield curve squishes bank interest margins $$ Feb 01, 2012
401(k) Plans Step Into the Sunshine http://t.co/fvKeup2L But as with DB plans, as costs rise, companies will offer them less. $$ Jan 31, 2012
Value Investing
The SEC’s “90% Convergence” Fantasy http://t.co/bkWaAS5S US GAAP has many flaws, but we know them. IFRS will introduce abusable flexibility Feb 02, 2012
But on the bright side, value investors may do relatively better as financials become less trustworthy; the accruals anomaly will sing $$ Feb 02, 2012
Need to consider (Cost of goods sold)/user $$ RT @ErikSchatzker: Facebook gets $4.39/yr of revenue per user. ESPN gets $4.69/mo. Feb 02, 2012
Berkowitz: Fund Plunge ?Makes Little Sense? http://t.co/pcoPLahW BB, appoint someone in your group 2 seek out opinions contrary 2 yours $$ Feb 01, 2012
@ADayforRabbit I have argued in the past that BB is not paying attention to the delevering, which is a real headwind for the banks. $$ Feb 02, 2012
New Fund Hopes to Prove Outspoken Analyst?s Thesis http://t.co/cuVpRzvO I bet @rcwhalen does well like my friends @ Hovde or M3 Partners $$ Feb 01, 2012
Hedge Funds
Are Hedge Funds Worthwhile Investments? http://t.co/Lw2EhRPr Yet another “Hedge Fund Mirage” citation; the book is having a lot of influence Feb 02, 2012
Are the hedge fund and private equity boys pulling a fast one? http://t.co/TNXFJo62 Beginning 2c the args of “Hedge Fund Mirage” everywhere Feb 02, 2012
Did Hedge Funds Trigger the Financial Crisis? http://t.co/lNIb2dgF Secured asset classes can be overlevered; when they collapse, big mess $$ Feb 01, 2012
Miscellaneous
Do the Job You’re Meant to Do http://t.co/wR3OX20N LIfe is too short to work with people you don’t respect, or tasks unfit for you $$ Feb 02, 2012
Millionaire adopts girlfriend as daughter http://t.co/zffGCWbu Asset shelter. Does incest rely on consanguinity or on legal relationship? Feb 02, 2012
Charles Murray Reiterates Willpower http://t.co/smeXZKNh Lack of self-control can destroy relationships, jobs, firms & lives $$ Feb 02, 2012
I ran into @twitalyzer today. Lots of interesting analytics for tweeting. Here are some for me: http://t.co/HDdcFYaU & http://t.co/8uFFOMuP Feb 01, 2012
At the first blogger summit at the UST, I recommended to the powers that be that they issue floaters. I also recommen? http://t.co/R3U8OHSi Feb 01, 2012
California Faces Cash Shortfall by March on Low Receipts, Controller Says http://t.co/QxH1a6Re Could be interesting given the elections $$ Feb 01, 2012
Stinks RT @s_m_i: RT @hedgefundinvest: RT @financialpost: Twitter to censor content in some countries http://t.co/zhnzV1Qo Jan 27, 2012
When the Reps win, wants 2b FedChair RT @pdacosta: Fed activism harms US growth, former Fed board governor Warsh says http://t.co/Tht5YyHi Jan 27, 2012
I’m different. I gained my net worth little by little through investing, and have kept it. My wife is glad she married me, and not my friend Jan 27, 2012
that I made to him in March 2009, with stock conversion rights. Many entrepreneurs r this way; they are not geared to preserving wealth. $$ Jan 27, 2012
An example: I have a friend who is presently very wealthy. He has nearly gone broke four times in the last decade. Pays me 13% on a loan + Jan 27, 2012
Angry about inequality? Don?t blame the rich. http://t.co/CV0GE1Gg Being rich is more fluid than most think. Rise fast, fall fast 4 many $$ Jan 27, 2012
Apple’s Dirt-Cheap Stock and the Fiduciary Theory of the Firm http://t.co/DtV2kK7P Me: Risk of tech obsolesence & mkt saturation -> low PE Jan 27, 2012
@Nonrelatedsense That’s funny. I didn’t see that because my browser blocks pop-ups. Jan 27, 2012
The chase for yield is on http://t.co/ISJ6MmLx High yield market looks a little frothy now. 73% of all HY CEFs trade at a premium to NAV. $$ Jan 27, 2012
Risk Bites Back: Lessons Learned From The Harvard Endowment http://t.co/Ch4s7jbP Similar to my article: http://t.co/Ycu95PCU Guard liquidity Jan 27, 2012
At minimum, desirable asset classes must be chosen and given weights. Then adjustment strategy; rebalance vs momentum. These invlv forecasts Jan 27, 2012
Tactical Management and Flawed Forecasting http://t.co/2VWePjbf All asset allocation implicitly involves a forecast. Jan 27, 2012
US Sovereign Debt Tipping Point Scenarios, Symposium by George Mason University http://t.co/QDFe1BJP 5 scenarios, but I can think of more $$ Jan 27, 2012
Tin Gains as Prospect of Low Fed Rates Boosts Speculation of Higher Demand http://t.co/zYYQXHVM I think the correlation is rather tenuous Jan 27, 2012
The GOP Goes MAD http://t.co/F7CoZQBl The candidates go thermonuclear, but the party itself may get hit. Lotta mudslinging going on $$ Jan 26, 2012
@groditi Yes, and Vale tried to strike some deal w/the Chinese to lessen the pain, and the Chinese stiffed them Jan 26, 2012
New Jersey Pensions Earn 1.7% in 2011 http://t.co/8vHP7Ok7 Add in the effects of low interest rates & funding levels fall considerably $$ Jan 26, 2012
One Third of New Yorkers Can?t Retire http://t.co/o8VFsw2v This is not news; a lot of people did not plan well, compounded w/no interest Jan 26, 2012
Merkel Masters Markets With Euro Austerity Mollifying Investors http://t.co/DSrJaAFZ She seems to be getting her way, bit by bit $$ Jan 26, 2012
Gingrich Attacks Romney Over Swiss Account http://t.co/AXzEC9ij Populism is a dangerous thing to swallow; read the warning label first $$ Jan 26, 2012
The squeeze on dollar funding in the Eurozone continues http://t.co/BZxSdJOc Will probably continue the demand for USD swap lines by ECB $$ Jan 26, 2012
US Banks Face Pressure on Margins From Fed Policy http://t.co/yzXGroUm Flat front end of yield curve steadily crushes interest margins $$ Jan 26, 2012
No Slower Steaming as Container Lines Run Like Clippers http://t.co/N9G7Ltgu This one made me pause. The shipping glut has funny effects Jan 26, 2012
Deteriorating employment situation in France http://t.co/EuTX0Go0 A clear sign of deteriorating economic conditions in the E-Zone as a whole Jan 26, 2012
Uralkali Ready to Cut Potash Output to Shield Price http://t.co/yqPjHQEZ Potash producers cutting production globally; can’t b good 4 Agri Jan 26, 2012
?Stop-Newt? Republicans Confront New Base http://t.co/UZEdELQr This ain’t your Father’s Republican Party. Less of a party more of a fracas Jan 26, 2012
The Real Margaret Thatcher Story http://t.co/Ul6dyr3N “Lesson: governments cannot permanently live beyond their means had been learned.” Jan 26, 2012
More Drones, Fewer Troops http://t.co/D94fBRsm This doesn’t look smart to me, & makes America look like more of a empire than it is. $$ Jan 26, 2012
@The_Analyst After Great Depression the Flubs were established by the Flub Act of 1932 – provide funds 2 “building and loan” institutions $$ Jan 26, 2012
Egypt Bans LaHood, Other Americans From Leaving http://t.co/SVz5DBAn Military alleges foreign nationals are sowing dissent among masses Jan 26, 2012
Banks Hoarding ECB Cash to Double Company Defaults http://t.co/TPPvb33z European companies needing liquidity are not getting it from banks Jan 26, 2012
Ron Paul, the Fed and the Need for a Stable Dollar http://t.co/fwTrW2B3 Fed policy hurts savers aids government. Policy stability needed Jan 26, 2012
2 bright ladies who know bonds RT @cabaum1: I’ll be opining on Fed folderol w/ my pal @Kathleen_Hays on WBBR’s Hays Advantage @12:45pm today Jan 26, 2012
@munilass It’s been fun 4 us. I hope u have an even better time of it. Jan 26, 2012
@munilass My wife says that u forget the pain w/the joy of the child. We also have 5 adopted kids; youngest turns 10 soon. Life changes fast Jan 26, 2012
@munilass My sympathies. Having a baby is wonderous, though I always pitied my wife during her 3 deliveries. Hope it goes well for u & baby. Jan 26, 2012
@SoberLook Thanks. Appreciate your blog. Jan 26, 2012
@interfluidity Thanks. Many thanks. Jan 26, 2012
@interfluidity Thanks, I appreciate it. I always wonder at myself when I get too hard. Jan 26, 2012
@interfluidity Thanks. I am not trying to beat up on Bernanke, as much as trying to point out the inconsistencies involved in his policies. Jan 26, 2012
@PlanMaestro Not sure, I am imitating @HistorySquared, who I appreciate. Aside from that, a number of readers asked for it. $$ Jan 26, 2012
222 Years Of Long-Term Interest Rates http://t.co/o0qYWoTf It’s always the same; it’s never the same. When long rates will rise is a mystery Jan 19, 2012
Don?t become the next Kodak http://t.co/XCJAUb3s $EK actually developed the 1st digital camera, and dismissed it. Ignored Fuji too $$ #dumb Jan 19, 2012
Kodak Says Tech Firms Pushed It Into Chapter 11 http://t.co/que2uw63 $EK relies on the kindness of strangers; blames them 4 demise $$ Jan 19, 2012
Cat bond market bounces back in January http://t.co/TIvZpNMe Insurers looking 4 shelter from what could b another tough year 4 claims $$ Jan 19, 2012
Congress?s Benefits Add to $674B Pension Gap http://t.co/dD58E6NA & http://t.co/Zvpch4Gi Congress’ Pension Math Doesn’t Add Up $$ #debt Jan 19, 2012
China No Match for Dutch Plants as Philips Shavers Come Home http://t.co/LrkcOj04 Product engineer in Shanghai same cost as in Drachten $$ Jan 19, 2012
Soros Proves Nothing Rotten in Denmark as Home Financing Excels http://t.co/ShMY4LWN Did not calm me; reasons 4 past success r past $$ Jan 19, 2012
13 Signs of a Bull Market http://t.co/Tn7FAY2A The market reacts positively to bad news. Defensive sectors underperform. And more $$ Jan 19, 2012
Chinese foreign exchange reserves shrink http://t.co/S2sMHb9V Shrank in 4Q2011 for the first time in more than a decade. $$ Jan 19, 2012
After half a century of trade surpluses, Japan is now in deficit http://t.co/H4T4ZqNb Still a current account surplus because of invt earns Jan 19, 2012
Apple expected to delve into textbooks http://t.co/BKtLcm0Z Can $AAPL can cut the costs in this anti-competitive area? $$ #overpriced Jan 19, 2012
In France, vintners erase a notorious past http://t.co/89sa3Dva Renaming French wine region rescues them from undue nuclear waste taint $$ Jan 19, 2012
Bet the house: why the FHA is going (for) broke http://t.co/80FO8wXg FHA repeating the loose lending standards of Fannie & Freddie in 2000s Jan 19, 2012
New from Aleph Blog Should I Invest or Save?: ?Should I Invest or Save??An easy question, not.? First, I need to… http://t.co/mBI62tYx Jan 19, 2012
New from Aleph Blog What?s Up? What?s Down?: I can?t remember who gave me this idea, but sometimes I troll throu… http://t.co/JAdXbKQT Jan 19, 2012
@real_taxloss No surprise. They have been clueless for the last 25 years. Even as a grad student, I wondered at them milking their monopoly Jan 19, 2012
Long and Variable Lags Between Money Supply and Inflation Dupes Economists http://t.co/5vrJUzE9 Monetary base drives inflation over 5-10 yrs Jan 19, 2012
What?s Going Down ?Down Under?? The Case for Shorting Australian Dollars http://t.co/b5lvUUIk Central Bank lowering rates, asset bubble $$ Jan 19, 2012
The Hidden Cost of Free Money http://t.co/hdw3gqxO Yield cv favors Borrow short, lend long on MBS. Arb will flip if/when short rates rise $$ Jan 19, 2012
@groditi I own HMC for clients. What do you think is most attractive here? Jan 18, 2012
@groditi I kinda knew that, but fewer cars r dying from rust than in the past. Large variety of car ages on the road. Jan 18, 2012
Greece, China and the USA http://t.co/48nSUg6G Greek Diaspora is in full swing. China cement capacity half of world capacity. & more, wow $$ Jan 18, 2012
It?s Early But S&P 500 Earnings Beats Are Less Common; Nobody Seems To Care http://t.co/ZP3JtxWF We got our rally hats on! Who cares! 😉 Jan 18, 2012
The great Australian bond run http://t.co/MePO8FK1 Decided not to let AUD appreciate -> low rates -> asset bubble. Import loose $$ policy Jan 18, 2012
The Book On Mitt Romney: Here Is John McCain’s Entire Opposition Research File http://t.co/i3WAsOYo I guess MR could b a chameleon on plaid Jan 18, 2012
Is Egypt Running Out of Money? Ask Cairo Drivers http://t.co/Y3TBSu9D Enormous lines @ Egyptian gas stations due2 fuel delivery cutbacks $$ Jan 18, 2012
MIT Economists Running Central Banks http://t.co/5AbMGuDn Didn’t c the great recession coming, why should we expect them to c inflation? $$ Jan 18, 2012
Auto Plants at Capacity, Buoying U.S. Economy http://t.co/5ZwJhKfX Pretty optimistic on autos. Wonder how sustainable it is. $$ #vroom Jan 18, 2012
European Hedge Funds Line Up Bets on China Downturn http://t.co/OSkAoRxq Bets getting a little thick here, could there b a shakeout coming? Jan 18, 2012
New fund flows and limited supply provide support to the muni market http://t.co/3wuD5WRF Muni finances slowly improving except retiree bfts Jan 18, 2012
Canada’s Housing Bubble About to Burst? http://t.co/OaCYVzeX & http://t.co/dzBX9KEY Keeping currency cheap induces low rates &asset bubble Jan 18, 2012
http://t.co/QQyG3IkE A prospectus, please, with risk factors… touting the good bits is not appreciated. Jan 18, 2012
This is not a normal book for me.? I am not a natural marketer by any means.? I have read a lot of marketing books in my time, but I am not a natural marketer.? I am reluctant to put myself forward, and boast.
But marketing does not have to be that way.? What if you could maintain and attract clients by giving them consistent attention, contacting them once a month and being a friend to them?? Now, granted, you have to give them good service, but what a lot of people are looking for is someone that they trust, who is out for their best interests.
You don’t have to be the best.? Show clients that you care, and give them high quality service as a wealth manager, and the question of the best returns goes out the window.? Just don’t blow it and lose a lot of money in the process.
As I read this as an investment advisor, I realized this book was best suited for wealth managers, but I concluded that the main lesson was show your largest clients personal care; their trust in you will grow, and they will stick with you unless you really blow it.
Indeed, one hallmark in the book is taking a lower-risk approach with client assets — most wealth managements clients are not looking for their manager to hit the cover off the ball, they just want him to reliably hit singles over time.
What I take away from this as an asset manager is to take moderate risks that are prudent for clients, and keep in touch with clients.? Show them that you care about them, and business becomes more sticky.? Also, if you can do it, ask your clients for referrals.? Remember, the best advertising is via word of mouth.
I write this as one growing an asset management business.? For me what would work well is to sub-advise wealth managers because I am good at beating the equity market, but I will continue to manage the assets of small investors for best return.
Quibbles
As with most marketing books there is the usual amount of boasting.? This one is better, in that these people have been tested and now have stable practices.? Still, you have to endure the jargon…
Who would benefit from this book:
All young wealth managers would benefit from this book.? Beyond that, I think most small investment advisors could learn from this book.? Caring about your clients is a core value to any business, but often gets forgotten in investing.
If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)
Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.
To my readers: I am still in the process of blog repair.? I have heard from a few readers that I need larger type and more contrast.? I will fix that.? For now, use Ctrl-+ to expand the font.? I don’t want any of you going blind over me. 😉
Onto tonight’s topic: asset allocation.? So, we had a bad quarter for equities.? Not that I can predict things, but I pulled in my horns progressively over the last nine months, culminating in buying a bunch of utilities at the last portfolio reshaping.? I own mostly energy, insurance, utilities, and consumer nondurables stocks, with a little tech thrown in for fun.? At present, median P/E is around 9, and P/B around 90%, with strong balance sheets, and around 17% of the portfolio in cash.? I missed roughly half of the carnage of the last quarter, and this week, I put some money to work, cash falling by 1%.
So, when are equities cheap?? Next question: cheap relative to what?? It’s difficult to say when equities are absolutely cheap, but here are some ideas on cheapness:
Stocks are absolutely cheap when they trade in aggregate at less than book value, or less than 8x trailing earnings.? Think of Buffett getting excited back in 1974.
When there is significant debt deflation going on, determining cheapness is tough.? Better to ignore the market as a whole, and focus on survivability/cheapness.? Aim at companies in necessary industries with relatively little debt, strong accounting practices, and cheap to earnings/book/sales.
I don’t have a good metric for when equities are cheap/dear to commodities.? Ideas welcome.
With respect to bonds, credit spreads are not wide enough to make me yell buy, as I did in November 2008 and March 2009.? Beyond that, the spread on GSE debt and guaranteed mortgages is thin.? TIPS look attractive, as few care about inflation.? The US dollar has been strong lately, largely due to weakness in the Euro.? I would be light on non-dollar bonds for now.
What we have been experiencing is creeping illiquidity, where the prior stimulus from the Fed and US Government has been declining.? There isn’t enough private demand growth to drive the economy, because we need to pay off or compromise on debts.? Also, the private sector looks at the growing debts of the government, and gets concerned.? How will the government deal with it?? Higher taxes, inflation, default?? No good scenarios there.
When an economy is overleveraged, there are no good solutions.? If sales fall, then corporations will fire more people, and idle more capacity in order to maintain profits near prior levels.? High quality bonds do well, but stocks do poorly, until enough debts are paid of or compromised, and the economy can work without the fear of mass insolvency again.
Considers the credit cycle first.? Great returns typically happen after credit spreads are wide, and are lousy after they are tight.
Considers the slopes of the Treasury nominal and TIPS curves.
Looks at the cash flow yield of all asset classes relative to history, relative to other asset class yields, etc.
Factors in safety provisions for each asset class.? Stocks need the most, then junk bonds, then investment grade.
Looks at the short-run and the long-haul returns of each asset class, attempting to analyze when the short run is way above or far below long-haul trends.
At present, I am still happy playing conservative, because I am less confident about debt deflation than most investors are now.? There will come a time to be much more bullish, but it will come after earnings decline, and firms have delevered still further.
One quick note for readers before I begin: I passed my Series 86 exam with an 88% score.? I did better than I expected.? Now I am studying for the 87 — my how interesting it is to study law… BTW, the next book I am reviewing is Confidence Game.
The Great Reflation
I wish I had written this book.? Of course, Tony Boeckh has resources that I don’t, given his prior connections to the Bank Credit Analyst.? When I subscribed to the Bank Credit Analyst, I always prized their insights.
The Great Reflation follows many themes that I discuss regularly:
Are we facing inflation or deflation?? Inflation of the currency or goods prices, and deflation of assets?
In the bull phase, liquidity is a synonym for willingness to borrow.? In the bust phase, illiquidity is a synonym for inability to sell assets to pay off debts.
Public borrowing has been substituted for private borrowing, with an attendant increase in sovereign risk.
Whether there are central banks or not, economies go through credit cycles.? Because the Fed facilitated this cycle, the debt bubble is bigger, and the cleanup will be huge.
Deleveraging is needed to restore prosperity, but there will be years of pain before that starts, assuming that the politicians are willing to see it through.
In the short run, the US has avoided a deeper crisis because of their ability to borrow.? This sets the stage for a larger crisis later.
Acting to reflate assets after a bust sets the stage for a new bubble.
Asset allocation is tough when interest rates are low, and there is no obvious desirable safe asset class.? Be nimble, and react to changes in valuations driven by emotions.
Even in crisis times, stocks can be valuable investments; one merely has to get the fundamentals and timing right.
Bonds are easy — think about interest rate risk, credit risk, and inflation risk.
He is bearish on the Dollar over the long term, but it could be the best of a bunch of bad developed market currencies for a long time.
Gold might be a bubble, or it might go considerably higher.? He favors the bubble argument.? Same for commodities.
Real estate prices won’t do anything amazing, good or bad.
America is in decline.? Can it recover?? (It has a lot of advantages, but unless the average American citizen is willing to sacrifice and clean up his own life, the answer is no.)
This will lead to a decrease in American influence abroad.? That will lead to a less stable world.
In his chapter on stocks, and his chapter on bonds, and chapters on other asset classes, the author hands out a wealth of knowledge on how to analyze fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals of asset classes.
He also comes to the conclusion that I do, that there are no easy asset allocation decisions here, and that one should diversify widely in order to preserve assets.? Also, he concludes that there is no easy endgame for heavily indebted nations, and that there will be a reckoning, though whether that means inflation or deflation is impossible to tell in advance.
I enjoyed the book and would recommend it highly.? My only misgiving is that there wasn’t much new for me in the book, but it was very well presented.
Most average investors could benefit from the book.? It would give them a deep feel for the difficulties that we are now in.? It would tell them that there are no easy solutions, and that broad diversification is warranted, together with nimbleness to profit from volatility.
Full disclosure: The publisher e-mailed me, and I requested a copy.
If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)
Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.
?I believe deeply that it?s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,? Geithner told reporters in Tokyo today.
Before I write, I can hear my friend Caroline Baum of Bloomberg gearing up her mental energies to say something like, “Again?? How many times can they say that with a straight face?”
If I wanted to create a strong dollar, what would I do?
I would have the Fed raise short-term rates.
I would reduce the creation of dollar claims by bringing the Federal budget into balance.
Neither of these are realities.? Thus the weak dollar.
But perhaps there is another way, and if you are reading me at the Treasury, please listen.? The idea is to make the countries that have acquired a lot of Dollar obligations realize that they are likely better off acquiring goods and services from the US now, rather than at a lower exchange rate later.
There is brinksmanship here, but when I was a bond trader, I could make it happen.? In the present context, there is no value to piling up more dollar obligations in exchange for goods today, unless one has a domestic political agenda to fulfill.
Now, with Japan and China, (and OPEC) both should be encouraged in this way.? Buy today, your dollars will likely buy less tomorrow.? That one action would restore balance to the global economy, as less business would be done on a credit basis across nations.
After that, the harder problem of dealing with structural US budget deficits becomes paramount.? What do you do with a government that has promised more than it can deliver?? The French Revolution comes to mind, but maybe we can do something more gentle.? The President addresses the nation, and tells the Baby Boomers that benefits from Medicare will be reduced.? It becomes a small medical needs and hospice program.? The nation can’t afford anything more, and if you were paying attention, you knew that.? Oh, and the foolish Part D, created by Bush gets eliminated, with no replacement.
As for Social Security, it becomes means-tested, and becomes an old age welfare program, complete with stigma.? “If you are receiving Social Security, you couldn’t have done that well.”
If we take actions like that, the US can survive.? Short of that, we face significant inflation, and a greater diminution of our living standards.
Until then, whoever is our Treasury Secretary will go around the world and say, “The US is committed to a strong dollar.”? And this is a valuable service.? We all need fairy tales to help us fall asleep easily at night, both here and abroad.
