Category: Insurance

On Insurance Investing, Part 3

On Insurance Investing, Part 3

Subtitle: The Value of Momentum and Mean-Reversion

In the extreme short-run, mean-reversion dominates.? Over a year, momentum dominates.? Over a four year period mean-reversion returns.

The same applies to insurance stocks.? This is perhaps more true of insurance stocks, because the accounting is so opaque.? When accounting is opaque, it takes a longer period of time for market prices to catch up with the underlying reality.

I do not trust momentum naively.? I compare it to fundamentals and ask if it has more room to run or fall.? Remember, insurance is a mature industry… there are few sustainable competitive advantages here.? Near turning points, valuations are stretched or in the dumps.

That said, here is my table of momentum for the insurance industry:

company ticker img_desc

mktcap

prchg_52w
Radian Group Inc. RDN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 882.0

155%

Homeowners Choice, Inc. HCI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 241.1

146%

Stewart Information Services C STC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 528.1

100%

Imperial Holdings, Inc. IFT 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ???????????????? 89.7

86%

Kingsway Financial Services In KFS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????????????? 54.0

68%

Atlantic American Corporation AAME 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????????????? 69.7

63%

eHealth, Inc. EHTH 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????????? 506.9

59%

Investors Title Company ITIC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 135.2

59%

First American Financial Corp FAF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,522.8

58%

Coventry Health Care, Inc. CVH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 6,239.6

57%

Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 753.0

55%

CNO Financial Group Inc CNO 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 2,315.5

52%

Allstate Corporation, The ALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 21,154.9

51%

Symetra Financial Corporation SYA 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 1,629.6

50%

American International Group, AIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 54,180.4

46%

Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA) SLF 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 17,505.2

46%

Platinum Underwriters Holdings PTP 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,595.2

43%

Hartford Financial Services Gr HIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 10,829.2

41%

Lincoln National Corporation LNC 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 8,005.7

41%

Amtrust Financial Services, In AFSI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,232.4

40%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. HCC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,989.2

39%

Fidelity National Financial In FNF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 5,669.5

38%

Horace Mann Educators Corporat HMN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 847.4

38%

Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. MRH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,341.4

37%

Seabright Holdings Inc SBX 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 249.3

37%

Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????? 9,172.3

37%

AEGON N.V. (ADR) AEG 0709 – Insurance (Life) ??? ?????13,026.1

36%

Fortegra Financial Corp FRF 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????????? 179.3

35%

XL Group plc XL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 8,353.8

35%

Primerica, Inc. PRI 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 1,877.3

34%

Allied World Assurance Co Hold AWH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,946.7

34%

Travelers Companies, Inc., The TRV 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 29,569.3

33%

Everest Re Group Ltd RE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 5,944.0

33%

Prudential Public Limited Comp PUK 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 38,254.3

33%

CIGNA Corporation CI 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 16,718.9

33%

United Insurance Holdings Corp UIHC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????????????? 91.9

32%

Partnerre Ltd PRE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 5,236.2

32%

Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 6,959.7

29%

Protective Life Corp. PL 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 2,500.8

29%

Argo Group International Holdi AGII 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 926.7

29%

Hallmark Financial Services, I HALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 171.6

26%

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limit AHL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,380.3

26%

Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd ALTE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,911.1

25%

Torchmark Corporation TMK 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 5,314.2

24%

Alleghany Corporation Y 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 6,048.5

24%

Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc EIHI 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 135.2

24%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ????? 242,512.2

23%

Manulife Financial Corporation MFC 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 26,899.6

23%

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 6,188.5

22%

Enstar Group Ltd. ESGR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,006.2

22%

Axis Capital Holdings Limited AXS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 4,664.5

22%

Genworth Financial? Inc GNW 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 4,647.8

21%

Aon PLC AON 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ???????? 18,361.6

21%

American Equity Investment Lif AEL 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 862.9

20%

White Mountains Insurance Grou WTM 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,585.0

20%

ACE Limited ACE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 28,999.2

20%

Markel Corporation MKL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 4,581.2

19%

United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 595.0

19%

Employers Holdings, Inc. EIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 658.7

18%

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 5,643.1

18%

Amerisafe, Inc. AMSF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 517.4

18%

National Interstate Corporatio NATL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? ??????592.7

18%

Old Republic International Cor ORI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,906.0

17%

Kansas City Life Insurance Co KCLI 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 418.7

17%

Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????? 3,901.8

17%

Aetna Inc. AET 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 16,644.7

17%

Crawford & Company CRD.B 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????????? 305.5

16%

Universal Insurance Holdings, UVE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 182.4

16%

Chubb Corporation, The CB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 21,220.1

15%

National Western Life Insuranc NWLI 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 593.0

15%

American Financial Group AFG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,862.0

15%

Loews Corporation L 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 17,109.9

15%

Endurance Specialty Holdings L ENH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,839.7

14%

China Life Insurance Company L LFC 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 91,295.3

14%

State Auto Financial STFC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 602.7

14%

Principal Financial Group Inc PFG 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 9,036.6

13%

EMC Insurance Group Inc. EMCI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 324.6

13%

Maiden Holdings, Ltd. MHLD 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 758.2

13%

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,982.5

13%

Validus Holdings, Ltd. VR 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 3,340.1

12%

Selective Insurance Group SIGI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,106.6

12%

UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 57,244.5

11%

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., THG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,821.7

11%

Cna Financial Corp CNA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 8,351.3

11%

ProAssurance Corporation PRA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,752.6

11%

Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,264.4

11%

Marsh & McLennan Companies, In MMC 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ???????? 19,053.5

10%

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. SAFT 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 728.8

10%

Unico American Corporation UNAM 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????????????? 68.2

10%

Progressive Corporation, The PGR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ???????? 13,682.1

10%

Independence Holding Company IHC 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 167.3

10%

AFLAC Incorporated AFL 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 25,077.1

10%

Navigators Group, Inc, The NAVG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 751.0

10%

Metlife Inc MET 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 41,077.8

9%

Kemper Corp KMPR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,874.3

8%

ING Groep N.V. (ADR) ING 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 37,707.5

7%

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????? 4,502.5

7%

American National Insurance Co ANAT 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,070.2

7%

Prudential Financial Inc PRU 0709 – Insurance (Life) ???????? 27,417.8

6%

StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. SFG 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 1,776.7

4%

Global Indemnity plc GBLI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 535.1

4%

WellPoint, Inc. WLP 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 20,092.9

3%

FBL Financial Group FFG 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 902.6

2%

Unum Group UNM 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 6,407.6

2%

Infinity Property and Casualty IPCC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 684.9

2%

Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. BWINB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 340.7

1%

Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 1,357.9

-2%

Reinsurance Group of America I RGA 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 4,098.1

-2%

Assurant, Inc. AIZ 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????? 3,039.7

-3%

RLI Corp. RLI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,439.5

-6%

Erie Indemnity Company ERIE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 3,283.2

-7%

Citizens, Inc. CIA 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 459.8

-8%

American Safety Insurance Hold ASI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 196.8

-8%

Tower Group Inc TWGP 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 740.9

-10%

Willis Group Holdings PLC WSH 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????? 6,032.0

-10%

Mercury General Corporation MCY 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 2,183.3

-11%

OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd OB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,308.7

-12%

Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. GLRE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 835.9

-12%

Donegal Group Inc. DGICA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 371.4

-12%

Universal American Corporation UAM 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ??? ???????????801.3

-13%

Humana Inc. HUM 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ???????? 11,855.7

-14%

CNinsure Inc. (ADR) CISG 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ?????????????? 330.1

-17%

Health Net, Inc. HNT 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health) ?????????? 2,204.9

-24%

MGIC Investment Corp. MTG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 581.9

-26%

MBIA Inc. MBI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????? 1,631.2

-30%

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, I MIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty) ?????????????? 318.1

-36%

Phoenix Companies, Inc., The PNX 0709 – Insurance (Life) ?????????????? 156.1

-36%

Life Partners Holdings, Inc. LPHI 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous) ???????????????? 50.3

-40%

I note that the basement contains a lot of funky companies with issues.? The penthouse contains a lot of credit-sensitive companies that have rallied off of the strong equity market, and moderately strong housing market.

I do not have much trust in the momentum now, because many are trusting in the rosy scenario where losses have been normalized.? I do not think that is the case, and think that there will be additional losses from credit risk coming soon.

On Insurance Investing, Part 2

On Insurance Investing, Part 2

If you grow book value, particularly if your liabilities are short, you will grow market value.? Many reinsurance and insurance companies aim at growing fully convertible book value per share.

Fully convertible book value per share assumes that you invest your dividends in the common stock (without taxation), and thus compound your gains through reinvestment, taking account of dilution.? Hmmm… when will someone dream up the idea of structuring an insurance company as an MLP or a REIT?? I don’t think it is likely, but maybe someone could dream it up.

It also implies that all possible dilution is factored in from convertible preferred stock or convertible bonds.? Now insurance companies tend to trade near book value over the long run, so companies that can grow their book value rapidly and pay dividends can be interesting investments.? Particularly where the liabilities of the company are short — property reinsurance or personal lines insurance, growth in book value plus dividends tends to be a reliable indicator of value creation.

If liabilities are longer, it gets more questionable, because under-reserving becomes more likely — it is very hard to be certain of the reserving of long-dated or volatile coverages.

Anyway, here is a list of insurance companies, and how they have accumulated book value plus dividends over the past seven years.? Note that this is a mathematical calculation off a limited database, and that splits and M&A can throw this calculation off.? With that caveat, here is the list:

company ticker sic img_desc mktcap Growth of FCBV
Life Partners Holdings, Inc. LPHI 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

50.7

76%

Universal Insurance Holdings, UVE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

185.2

75%

CNinsure Inc. (ADR) CISG 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

337.6

56%

Amtrust Financial Services, In AFSI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,128.7

38%

Employers Holdings, Inc. EIG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

652.6

32%

Enstar Group Ltd. ESGR 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,951.0

26%

Tower Group Inc TWGP 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

734.8

25%

Amerisafe, Inc. AMSF 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

508.5

23%

Humana Inc. HUM 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

11,297.2

21%

Allied World Assurance Co Hold AWH 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,856.1

21%

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

4,441.2

20%

Willis Group Holdings PLC WSH 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

6,009.5

20%

China Life Insurance Company L LFC 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

94,339.3

20%

ProAssurance Corporation PRA 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,698.5

19%

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

3,949.8

18%

National Interstate Corporatio NATL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

576.7

18%

Argo Group International Holdi AGII 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

910.3

17%

Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

3,851.4

17%

AFLAC Incorporated AFL 6321 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

24,134.6

16%

Endurance Specialty Holdings L ENH 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,796.8

16%

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

5,455.7

15%

American Financial Group AFG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

3,772.7

15%

Horace Mann Educators Corporat HMN 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

830.9

15%

Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc EIHI 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

135.5

15%

Validus Holdings, Ltd. VR 6331 0709 – Insurance (Life)

3,296.1

15%

CIGNA Corporation CI 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

16,104.2

14%

Reinsurance Group of America I RGA 6321 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

4,143.2

14%

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. SAFT 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

715.6

14%

Chubb Corporation, The CB 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

20,701.5

13%

Loews Corporation L 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

16,854.0

13%

ACE Limited ACE 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

28,285.6

13%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. HCC 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

3,937.5

13%

Travelers Companies, Inc., The TRV 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

29,108.4

13%

Coventry Health Care, Inc. CVH 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

6,080.9

12%

Markel Corporation MKL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

4,456.4

12%

Torchmark Corporation TMK 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

5,103.5

12%

UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

55,732.6

12%

Partnerre Ltd PRE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

5,116.2

12%

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, I MIG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

311.6

12%

StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. SFG 6321 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

1,704.1

12%

Prudential Financial Inc PRU 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

26,777.4

12%

Infinity Property and Casualty IPCC 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

688.6

12%

Assurant, Inc. AIZ 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

2,935.0

12%

Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. GLRE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

837.4

12%

Progressive Corporation, The PGR 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

13,738.8

11%

Protective Life Corp. PL 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

2,451.0

11%

Axis Capital Holdings Limited AXS 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

4,508.1

11%

Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

1,300.1

11%

American Equity Investment Lif AEL 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

834.1

11%

Symetra Financial Corporation SYA 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

1,578.3

11%

Aon PLC AON 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

18,199.1

10%

Mercury General Corporation MCY 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,169.0

10%

Everest Re Group Ltd RE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

5,843.7

10%

American Safety Insurance Hold ASI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

197.1

10%

Prudential Public Limited Comp PUK 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

38,071.4

10%

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limit AHL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,324.9

10%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

236,577.4

9%

EMC Insurance Group Inc. EMCI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

326.3

9%

RLI Corp. RLI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,439.1

9%

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., THG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,781.6

9%

Unico American Corporation UNAM 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

66.6

9%

Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. MRH 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,318.1

9%

Seabright Holdings Inc SBX 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

249.0

9%

Alleghany Corporation Y 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

5,950.7

8%

Hallmark Financial Services, I HALL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

176.8

8%

White Mountains Insurance Grou WTM 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

3,509.0

8%

Investors Title Company ITIC 6361 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

139.1

8%

Marsh & McLennan Companies, In MMC 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

19,020.9

8%

FBL Financial Group FFG 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

869.4

8%

Erie Indemnity Company ERIE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

3,264.4

8%

Metlife Inc MET 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

39,615.8

8%

Aetna Inc. AET 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

15,698.1

8%

WellPoint, Inc. WLP 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

19,054.4

8%

Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

773.3

8%

Citizens, Inc. CIA 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

485.8

7%

Donegal Group Inc. DGICA 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

370.9

7%

National Western Life Insuranc NWLI 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

596.1

7%

Navigators Group, Inc, The NAVG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

766.0

7%

Kemper Corp KMPR 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,842.8

7%

Allstate Corporation, The ALL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

20,817.6

7%

Cna Financial Corp CNA 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

7,982.2

6%

Lincoln National Corporation LNC 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

7,626.2

6%

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

6,084.7

6%

Platinum Underwriters Holdings PTP 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,565.0

6%

Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. BWINB 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

339.5

5%

Selective Insurance Group SIGI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,086.8

5%

United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

587.9

5%

Universal American Corporation UAM 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

793.6

5%

Principal Financial Group Inc PFG 6321 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

8,663.8

5%

American National Insurance Co ANAT 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,055.2

4%

Kansas City Life Insurance Co KCLI 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

416.9

4%

Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

6,771.0

3%

Independence Holding Company IHC 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

169.1

3%

State Auto Financial STFC 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

582.5

3%

Unum Group UNM 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

6,190.3

3%

Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA) SLF 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

17,283.4

3%

Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd ALTE 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,861.2

3%

Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,911.2

3%

Fidelity National Financial In FNF 6361 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

5,838.5

3%

Atlantic American Corporation AAME 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

69.2

2%

Health Net, Inc. HNT 6324 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

2,140.7

2%

Hartford Financial Services Gr HIG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

10,641.6

2%

ING Groep N.V. (ADR) ING 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

37,878.4

2%

Manulife Financial Corporation MFC 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

26,357.8

2%

Genworth Financial? Inc GNW 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

4,500.3

2%

AEGON N.V. (ADR) AEG 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

13,073.0

1%

Old Republic International Cor ORI 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,994.2

1%

OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd OB 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,328.8

0%

Global Indemnity plc GBLI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

555.8

-4%

CNO Financial Group Inc CNO 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

2,192.9

-5%

Crawford & Company CRD.B 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

326.7

-5%

Stewart Information Services C STC 6361 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

536.7

-9%

XL Group plc XL 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

8,182.5

-9%

Phoenix Companies, Inc., The PNX 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

155.4

-14%

First Acceptance Corporation FAC 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

51.2

-17%

Radian Group Inc. RDN 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

820.6

-23%

MBIA Inc. MBI 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1,561.5

-24%

Kingsway Financial Services In KFS 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

53.4

-25%

MGIC Investment Corp. MTG 6351 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

567.7

-28%

American International Group, AIG 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

51,803.5

-32%

eHealth, Inc. EHTH 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

501.2

Maiden Holdings, Ltd. MHLD 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

725.7

United Insurance Holdings Corp UIHC 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

92.7

Homeowners Choice, Inc. HCI 6331 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

240.0

Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

9,103.9

Primerica, Inc. PRI 6311 0709 – Insurance (Life)

1,868.1

First American Financial Corp FAF 6361 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

2,648.6

Imperial Holdings, Inc. IFT 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

86.3

Fortegra Financial Corp FRF 6411 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

177.3

Now, it makes a lot of difference how dividends are set, and how buybacks are done.? Dividends should reflect a conservative estimate of how much free cash flow that a company is willing to part with.? Buybacks should only be done when it is at a discount to the intrinsic value of the firm.? If you have to distribute capital when the stock price is above fair market value, do a special dividend.

And when capital is dear, stop the buyback, maybe even reduce the dividend, or do a small secondary IPO.? When there are genuinely profitable opportunities to write business take them.

This is yet another reason why insurance stocks tend to trade near book — capital is so flexible that if capital can enter and exit easily, it should trade near book, because capital enters and exits at book, for the most part.

Ignore the extremes, but realize that companies that compound their fully converted book values can be excellent investments.

On Insurance Investing, Part 1

On Insurance Investing, Part 1

Shrinking the Share Count

This post was prompted by this post from Avondale Asset Management on how the share count from The Travelers has shrunk since 2005 (two years after their merger with The St. Paul, a company that I once worked for).? Only 57% of the shares remain.? Way to go.

Now, buying back stock is not a panacea.? It is only good when the shares are trading below or not much above fair market value.? What’s fair market value, you ask?? Well, that’s not an easy question to answer in most places, but in insurance, it means around 1.3x book value, adjusting for intangibles that have no economic significance.

Now if a company has some proprietary products, technologies or methods that give it a sustainable competitive advantage, that multiple can rise — AFLAC might be an example of that.? But sustainable competitive advantages in a mature and competitive industry like insurance are rare.? Above the 1.3x book value hurdle, it would be better to do special dividends.

Avondale was spot-on to feature The Travelers.? They are in the upper end of those that bought back shares 2005-2012.? Here’s my list:

Company Ticker Industry % of shares remaining since 2005
WellPoint, Inc. WLP 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

52%

Infinity Property and Casualty IPCC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

56%

Travelers Companies, Inc., The TRV 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

57%

Aetna Inc. AET 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

58%

Employers Holdings, Inc. EIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

59%

White Mountains Insurance Grou WTM 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

60%

Torchmark Corporation TMK 0709 – Insurance (Life)

61%

Assurant, Inc. AIZ 0709 – Insurance (Life)

61%

Chubb Corporation, The CB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

67%

Erie Indemnity Company ERIE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

68%

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

69%

Endurance Specialty Holdings L ENH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

69%

Loews Corporation L 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

71%

Allied World Assurance Co Hold AWH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

71%

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

72%

Health Net, Inc. HNT 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

72%

Platinum Underwriters Holdings PTP 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

72%

Allstate Corporation, The ALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

73%

CIGNA Corporation CI 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

75%

UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

77%

Progressive Corporation, The PGR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

78%

Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. MRH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

78%

Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

78%

American Financial Group AFG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

80%

StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. SFG 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

80%

Primerica, Inc. PRI 0709 – Insurance (Life)

80%

Investors Title Company ITIC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

81%

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., THG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

83%

Coventry Health Care, Inc. CVH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

84%

RLI Corp. RLI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

84%

Kemper Corp KMPR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

84%

Axis Capital Holdings Limited AXS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

85%

First Acceptance Corporation FAC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

86%

Everest Re Group Ltd RE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

89%

Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc EIHI 0709 – Insurance (Life)

90%

Prudential Financial Inc PRU 0709 – Insurance (Life)

91%

Horace Mann Educators Corporat HMN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

92%

FBL Financial Group FFG 0709 – Insurance (Life)

92%

AFLAC Incorporated AFL 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

93%

Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

93%

Kansas City Life Insurance Co KCLI 0709 – Insurance (Life)

93%

Kingsway Financial Services In KFS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

93%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. HCC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

94%

Unum Group UNM 0709 – Insurance (Life)

94%

EMC Insurance Group Inc. EMCI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

95%

eHealth, Inc. EHTH 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

95%

OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd OB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

95%

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limit AHL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

96%

Unico American Corporation UNAM 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

97%

Markel Corporation MKL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

98%

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. SAFT 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

98%

Humana Inc. HUM 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

99%

Atlantic American Corporation AAME 0709 – Insurance (Life)

100%

State Auto Financial STFC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

100%

A.F.P Provida SA (ADR) PVD 0718 – Investment Services

100%

American National Insurance Co ANAT 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

101%

Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. BWINB 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

101%

Mercury General Corporation MCY 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

101%

Marsh & McLennan Companies, In MMC 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

101%

National Western Life Insuranc NWLI 0709 – Insurance (Life)

101%

Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

101%

Selective Insurance Group SIGI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

101%

Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA) SLF 0709 – Insurance (Life)

101%

Life Partners Holdings, Inc. LPHI 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

101%

Aon PLC AON 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

102%

ProAssurance Corporation PRA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

102%

Principal Financial Group Inc PFG 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

102%

First American Financial Corp FAF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

102%

China Life Insurance Company L LFC 0709 – Insurance (Life)

103%

Genworth Financial? Inc GNW 0709 – Insurance (Life)

103%

Navigators Group, Inc, The NAVG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

104%

National Interstate Corporatio NATL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

104%

Amerisafe, Inc. AMSF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

104%

Cna Financial Corp CNA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

105%

Donegal Group Inc. DGICA 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

106%

Stewart Information Services C STC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

106%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

107%

Prudential Public Limited Comp PUK 0709 – Insurance (Life)

107%

Willis Group Holdings PLC WSH 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

107%

Crawford & Company CRD.B 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

111%

Old Republic International Cor ORI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

112%

Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

112%

United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

113%

Partnerre Ltd PRE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

113%

Protective Life Corp. PL 0709 – Insurance (Life)

114%

Manulife Financial Corporation MFC 0709 – Insurance (Life)

114%

Independence Holding Company IHC 0709 – Insurance (Life)

116%

ACE Limited ACE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

116%

Reinsurance Group of America I RGA 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

118%

Citizens, Inc. CIA 0709 – Insurance (Life)

119%

Universal Insurance Holdings, UVE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

121%

Phoenix Companies, Inc., The PNX 0709 – Insurance (Life)

122%

AEGON N.V. (ADR) AEG 0709 – Insurance (Life)

124%

Symetra Financial Corporation SYA 0709 – Insurance (Life)

124%

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

127%

Fidelity National Financial In FNF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

128%

Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

130%

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

131%

ING Groep N.V. (ADR) ING 0709 – Insurance (Life)

135%

Argo Group International Holdi AGII 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

136%

Seabright Holdings Inc SBX 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

138%

Global Indemnity plc GBLI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

141%

Metlife Inc MET 0709 – Insurance (Life)

143%

MBIA Inc. MBI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

145%

Hartford Financial Services Gr HIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

146%

American Safety Insurance Hold ASI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

150%

CNO Financial Group Inc CNO 0709 – Insurance (Life)

153%

Universal American Corporation UAM 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)

153%

Radian Group Inc. RDN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

155%

American Equity Investment Lif AEL 0709 – Insurance (Life)

159%

Hallmark Financial Services, I HALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

160%

Validus Holdings, Ltd. VR 0709 – Insurance (Life)

160%

Lincoln National Corporation LNC 0709 – Insurance (Life)

161%

Enstar Group Ltd. ESGR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

169%

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, I MIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

172%

Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. GLRE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

173%

Alleghany Corporation Y 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

191%

Tower Group Inc TWGP 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

196%

Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd ALTE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

197%

CNinsure Inc. (ADR) CISG 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)

208%

XL Group plc XL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

215%

MGIC Investment Corp. MTG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

220%

Amtrust Financial Services, In AFSI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

259%

Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

262%

American International Group, AIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)

1265%

On the top side, and I did not see any of these, be aware of reverse splits, which can reduce the share count, are a sign of a badly run company, but do nothing for the economics of a firm, aside from keeping them listed on a major exchange.

On the bottom side, factor in large mergers paid for with shares.? Most large-scale mergers don’t work out well, so I don’t mind those companies being near the bottom of the list.

On a closing note, there is a weak positive correlation in most mature industries between stock price performance and relative decreases in share count, assets, and sales.? This sounds counter-intuitive, but good management teams know when to grow and when not to grow.? They don’t do acquisitions for scale.? They don’t grow sales if the sales growth won’t justify the cost of capital.? Building the assets of the company bigger does nothing for the bottom line; selective asset sales can free up cash for more productive uses.? Good management teams do not build empires — they add when it makes sense (grow), subtract when it makes sense (shrink), divide when it makes sense (spinoffs), and multiply when it makes sense (IPOs, JVs, new projects).

PS –? What does the WSJ have today?? An article on buybacks.? Enjoy.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Central Banking

 

  • Records Show Fed Wavering in 2007 http://on.wsj.com/SgLPoG 4 all of their vaunted intelligence, the Fed was worried, but clueless in 2007 $$
  • Three Stages of Fed Grief: Key Quotes From 2007 http://t.co/X4ygwdqU Slowly realized the economy they overlevered was getting worse $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record Bond-Buying http://t.co/wDckfD77 The sourcerer’s apprentices note there is a problem $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Paul Moreno: Gold, Greenbacks and Inflation: A History and a Warning http://t.co/75M1jNRo Ppl forget the degree the Fed has debased $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Once you turn base money into short-term debt, can you go back? http://t.co/pG3gxBwA @interfluidity ideas getting deserved attention $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War’ http://t.co/y6GJi0V5 Japan leads “race 2 the bottom.” Who will b first 2 stop sterilizing? $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Currency Moves? & Central Bank Bravado http://t.co/zt7BI1As Posit that the yen is falling due to war risks & Japan biz risks in China $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Abe Rocket-Start Lowers Sony Risk With Market Fuel http://t.co/J4cLgQKJ Loose monetary has spillover benefits 2 indebted corporations $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • I’ll grant this: the government always has some role in money, even commodity money like a gold standard… http://t.co/QtVI3oeC Jan 12, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Pressure Rises on China to Scrap One-Child Policy http://t.co/iDfZ0Ssl No better way 2 have a demographic crisis; change long overdue $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Default Alarm Rings as Trust Loans Jump Sevenfold http://t.co/2tr1vFnq China is so messed up that it makes the Eurozone look good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Singapore Curbs Industrial Property Sales to Avert Bubble http://t.co/vZQhsdya Increases bid-ask spread; can’t fight fundamentals $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mongolia?s Erdenes TT Halts Coal Exports to Biggest Buyer China http://t.co/hoTHAxxZ Probably either gross malfeasance or bribery $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • European Dividends Tumble to Four-Year Low as CEOs Hoard http://t.co/D6YdzVqD Favor European Exporters over their Domestic companies $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Euro at 10-Month High Poses Economic Threat, Juncker Says http://t.co/bk0FsVEE The #currencywars continue. Rule: Beggar thy neighbor $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Russia Says World Is Nearing Currency War as Europe Joins http://t.co/OvVu0ZMH Accept export slowdown? Monetize debt? Stupid QE-like stuf? Jan 17, 2013
  • Rio Tinto CEO Steps Down http://t.co/lqWyRPES Every CEO should have etched on his wall: “Paying up 4 scale acquisitions is dumb” $$ $RIO Jan 17, 2013
  • China Capital Flow: Foreign Direct Dis-Investment http://t.co/V8erkuxL Foreign inv’t inflows falling, domestic inv’t outflows rising $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • China Starts Losing Edge as World’s Factory Floor http://t.co/pG7uOFqX SE Asia benefits as China becomes more expensive 2 operate in $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Norway Sees Deeper European Job Pain as Default Fears Recede http://t.co/ztbfvp0H Rising NOK makes exports less competitive &fewer jobs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Often when FX vols spike it means something might break, like the SNB not able continue its EUR peg. But if… http://t.co/fydAlRSX Jan 16, 2013
  • HSBC needs 2 end its Ping An silence with simple answers http://t.co/8xVAWiHD much alleged insider deal information has been circulating $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mainland alchemists turn damaged zinc into solid gold http://t.co/W4zu69k7 An example of how Chinese banking system papers over bad debts $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Rumor: large backlog of Chinese companies want to IPO, but having hard time slowing the required 2 years of rising earnings $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Neighbors Grow More Wary of China http://t.co/aYMUvLs2 Ex-pat Chinese moving in, looking a little graspy w/respect to resources, etc $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mineworker Debt Mounts as South African Lending Booms http://t.co/hTkXyCTc There are few places in the world without debt overages $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Deutsche Bank Derivative Helped Monte Paschi Mask Losses http://t.co/PeqTdPBT Bad investing led to losses 2 hide. Enter Deutsche Bank $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • reaching for yield http://t.co/zFaWCA7h @researchpuzzler notes tight junk spreads, but + Ed Meigs & Dan Fuss r ?naysayers on junk credit $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Short-term Debt and Financial Crises: What we can learn from US Treasury Supply http://t.co/UG1RvuHm Qty issue ST fin’l sector debt->crisis Jan 17, 2013
  • 22 Insights From The Most Successful Investors In History http://t.co/4u3QVRJL Very nice assemblage of quotes from the best investors $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • [Will] the Bond Bubble Finally Burst? http://t.co/1c7hOX4W Synthesis of a variety of views: Yes, but not in the short-run… $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • FINRA to brokers: know your high-yield securities http://t.co/DJHC5NvT Intelligent words from FINRA; b able2show clients all possibilities Jan 16, 2013
  • The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control.” http://t.co/GBUfGOa9 Watch risky debt buyers; c if they need things 2go right2survive Jan 16, 2013
  • Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market http://t.co/EIEgk2Al Most-accurate gold forecasters>price will probably peak in 2013 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Whatever Happened 2 Good, Old-Fashioned Accountants? http://t.co/aFofQ4Mv @retheauditors explains y basic blocking&tackling go a long way $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Yale May Buy More Hedge Fund Assets After Favoring Cash http://t.co/D0cP9LDV Timing feels wrong here w/credit spreads tight & vol low $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Baupost Group Sitting On 116% Return From Madoff Claims http://t.co/u4MYuhJI Bankruptcy judge said ?seller?s remorse,? denied his effort $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Leeway on Repo Rules Is Cut Back http://t.co/B16EXZfR “…we’re basically saying all repos should be accounted for as borrowings,” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Inside the Self-Driving Index Funds That Finish First http://t.co/XPEfHyE4 @jasonzweigwsj $BLK low fees, shares sec lending revenue $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • How2use Twitter & Facebook 2 make $$ from shares http://t.co/lXXw321E Just watch: this causes the next ‘flash crash’ h/t: @abnormalreturns Jan 14, 2013
  • KRS Spin Machine Is Smearing The Truth Again http://t.co/VGGSkxHX Kentucky Retirement Systems does not use RFPs -> “pay to play” @ KRS $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007” http://t.co/QUGhAMqC Will supply grow, or will misfinancing start? $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • SP500 Revisited – Testing 1484/1500 zone and reversal after? http://t.co/8TMktTjD Argues for a correction in stocks in the near term $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Hedge-Fund Leverage Rises to Most Since 2004 in New Year http://t.co/rwFVhRmz H0: flexible $$ overallocated to stocks now> correction due Jan 14, 2013
  • 39% of Fund Managers Beat the S&P in 2012 http://t.co/xRx3Juik It was a growth year & not a value year. 48% would b the 10-yr average $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Billionaires

 

  • I suppose Bloomberg could write a book about hidden billionaires, and call it “The Billionaire Next Door.” http://bloom.bg/WN9Jo8 ?#yeah $$
  • Erie Billionaire Hagen Revealed as Car Premiums Surge http://t.co/BsMEp8gu $ERIE interesting company w/a unique asset-lite biz model $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Milking Saudi Dairy Fortune in Desert http://t.co/XAoRKBRp Bloomberg likes ‘outing’ obscure billionaires like this $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Personal Finance

 

  • Why you can?t avoid dumb 401(k) mistakes http://t.co/fffPsn0k Plan sponsors chase hot managers & avoid passive options $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Behind the indexed annuity curtain http://t.co/Qo7RdSX9 Avoid. Surrender charges r long & high 2pay commission; opaque int crediting $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • One in four savers has 401(k) ?leakage? http://t.co/TRBsFfwx Retirement seems far away, but $$ needs r near, so ppl tap their 401(k)s Jan 16, 2013
  • Seven Resolutions to Get Your Nest Egg in Shape http://t.co/cqNqpxJF Good basic advice 4 ordinary people taking care of the nest egg $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • E-Filing and the Explosion in Tax-Return Fraud http://t.co/9SAE6oPL Identity theft; 1 reason y I do it myself & file on paper $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Housing Problems: Where To Get Help http://t.co/3hrCyQFy @retheauditors gives advice to those having issues with foreclosures $$ #goodstuff Jan 13, 2013

 

Banks and Investment Banks

 

  • More Ideological Excuse Making for Bad Banks http://t.co/0wjkQq3n It takes two to tango; it takes two to make a loan. Both deserve blame $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • A tempest in a spreadsheet http://t.co/W2mwYeHO A reason y having robust “smell tests” r needed when mathematical models get complex $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mortgage Nanny Added to Lender Job Description http://t.co/nRRonPBL Caveat Emptor:May make probs worse by creating illusion of safety $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Wells Fargo to Start Jet-Leasing Venture http://t.co/a0FwgcNn FD: + $WFC | I like the fact that theyr starting small #organicgrowth $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Jefferies Sets Table in Pay Clash http://t.co/s6utAuEy Or, they could jump 2 $JEF soon 2b $LUK. $$ motivates better, but conflicts occur Jan 16, 2013
  • Bankers Get IOUs Instead of Bonus Cash http://t.co/fKrpWXZL Will tie employees more tightly, unless they jump to related industries $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Report of $JPM Management Task Force Regarding 2012 CIO Losses http://t.co/i7x0Ifi4 [132pp PDF] If interested in $JPM, summary in 17 pgs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Municipalities Should Ditch Wall Street Derivatives Deals http://t.co/Jqmgjllk If Wall St is on other side of table, watch your wallet $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Banks say new agency’s oversight is slow, costly http://t.co/aHIGFRUh Banks pine away over the regulatory laxity they had 6-10 years ago $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Goldman?s ?Secret? Team Shows Volcker?s Folly http://t.co/fovIyDRf Difficult to stop prop trading, better 2 remake I-banks partnerships $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Bank Deal Ends Flawed Reviews of Foreclosures http://t.co/7DoTN8yA absurd, $$ will b distributed w/little regard 2 who was actually harmed Jan 13, 2013

 

Economic Policy

 

  • Portfolio Manager Creates Dazzlingly Deep Presentation On What’s Really Going On With The US Economy http://t.co/vcRHWwEe Long but good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Obama Finds Path to Congress Deals Goes Through McConnell http://t.co/B763HV1u Give him his due; has a nose that can sniff out deals $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • The Next Tax Increase http://t.co/7beI2QUO What the US Govt has belongs 2 the US Govt. What belongs 2u is subject 2 negotiation $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Swap the Debt Ceiling for a Rule That Makes Sense http://t.co/NVYjvTD8 Maybe limit total liabilities of US Gov’t to 2x GDP? Way past that Jan 16, 2013
  • Why U.S. might be ?a nation of deadbeats? http://t.co/UuOHrKlt Consumers have been paying down debt, but walking away from more $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • A Credit Downgrade Warning Both Sides Should Listen To http://t.co/TbB3Gbdn Rating agencies r more honest than US Govt. Fitch may d/g US $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Treasury Bill Rate Curve Inverts Amid Debt-Ceiling Showdown http://t.co/0KOQqC7A Bill curve showing some inversion due 2 debt ceiling $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Money-Printing Will Lead to an Inflation in Another Guise http://t.co/erqP71P7 Debt overload & slack capacity short circuit credit growth $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Two Warning Signs for Treasuries http://t.co/BdAcNkHE “yield curve btw 2&10 years is starting to steepen” Resistance 2 neg real rates up $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • TIPS Implied Inflation 4 2018-22 rose over 2012; flat now http://t.co/R28O77bX 2014 Inflation rising http://t.co/VCfupYLT $$ Fed target 2.5% Jan 16, 2013
  • US states flirt with major tax changes http://t.co/EnZmtggx Red states moving toward sales & away from personal/corporate income taxes $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

States & Municipalities

 

  • California, Unsaved, Speeds Toward a Wall of Debt http://t.co/pyrObgbr Constants in life that r not comforting: gimmicks in CA budget $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • California Could Be the Next Shale Boom State http://t.co/r0QChYDh Energy could flow from the Land of Squandered Advantages $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Pension Funding Gap Widens for Big Cities http://t.co/a76JAJT0 Expect 2c many fights where bens cut 4 new, active & retired employees $$ Jan 16, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Suitors Interested in H-P’s Autonomy, EDS Units http://t.co/AXdvxjei Wouldn’t put 2 much into this; $HPQ won’t get good prices $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Genworth Shares Soar Amid Plan for Mortgage Insurer http://t.co/Jqmgjllk $GNW moves deck chairs on the Titanic; rewarded for now $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Chevron Signs Deal for More Oil Exploration Acres Off China http://t.co/Yqb7yY7g FD: + $CVX smiles as it rides the tiger $$ #risks Jan 16, 2013
  • My Favorite Tobacco Stock Is Intel? http://t.co/Wupvh1qk @CharlesSizemore explains y it should deliver returns, amid hatred $$ FD: + $INTC Jan 16, 2013
  • TNT Left at Altar Gets No Immediate FedEx Deal http://t.co/QSdDHarC “FedEx in a good position to wait this out & let TNT come to them.” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Latest IPOs Arrive In The Form of New MLPs http://t.co/cq7XuIKv All of the new MLPs r energy-related $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • ARM CEO East Says Phooey to the ?Transistor Cliff? http://t.co/wfiIeQau Cost, speed, & power use r the key factors 4 logic chips $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • Davos Pitch for Dynamism Rams Into End-of-Growth Debate http://t.co/1bNvkwD7 I don’t think growth is ended, but bad finances interfere $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Global Piracy @ 5-Yr Low http://t.co/YgJlRQSh 2012: Pirates boarded 174 ships globally v 439 in 2011, people taken hostage 585<-802 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • NRA Labels Obama Hypocrite on Guns for Child Protection http://t.co/DqIsubsA Administration doesn’t like the argument; hits close 2home $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Kidnap insurers eye sales as euro crisis bites http://t.co/w5CfiwOe Stable rates: More competition, & armed guards 4 sea transport $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Mathematicians coming of age to become the most sought after professionals http://t.co/thXJdgsS Nerds of the world unite! Big data 2analyze! Jan 16, 2013
  • The Margin Debate http://t.co/zE6p5oO1 Labor share of US GDP has fallen because growth in the global capitalist labor force, wages fall $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Financial Blogging

 

  • Your guide 2the financial blogosphere http://t.co/9mkoln2n Comprehensive list of finance bloggers. I’m listed under “Trading & Investing” $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs? A Pseudo-Scientific Study http://t.co/I9UU32zP I ranked higher than I expected 🙂 $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • The purpose of this site http://t.co/Bp4sqw5o @reformedbroker ‘s excellent piece on how his blogging helps him think & invest better $$ Jan 14, 2013

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Painting Kate Middleton

 

  • @judehere Perhaps this then? http://t.co/hstcUqPq Jan 16, 2013
  • @judehere That’s okay. You say he painted the Queen? That’s interesting. Is there an image of that out on the web? Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @judehere She seems to be a nice lady, so I wouldn’t be a fan of that. But Freud died in 2011, so the possibility is not there. Jan 16, 2013
  • But this portrait of Kate Middleton is worse in my opinion http://t.co/LBMKplpo No wonder only 19% like it. (2/2) $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Learning to draw, I copied a photo of a friend w/pencil. Another friend said “You took a very pretty girl, & turned her in2 pretty girl” 1/2 Jan 16, 2013

 

 

Michael Pettis

 

  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: hard commodity prices, trade numbers, Spanish Bonds, Target 2, & Japan (2/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: China growth, Debt trajectory, financial scandals, bank activities, inflation (1/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Imbalances can continue for many years, I argue, but at some point they become unsustainable & the world must adjust by reversing $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Policymakers do this by shortening their time horizons &managing from crisis2crisis, rather than sorting out the underlying problems Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: policymakers… taking steps that protect them from the consequences of the crisis but that also make the crisis worse. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: It is interesting that policymakers are so pleased by an end (temporarily, I assume) to the financing crisis. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis:We ended 2012 in a burst of optimism for Europe, w/everyone cheering Mario Draghi 4having ?saved? the euro, but I am deeply skeptical Jan 14, 2013

 

Wrong

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  • Wrong: How to Find a Fund Manager Who Can Beat the Market http://t.co/2Nq1Z9b2 Doesn’t understand difference btw correlation & beta $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: US Budget : Federal finances continue to improve http://t.co/HKzv6pLK It is a *spending* problem that started w/Bush 43, not revenue Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Municipal Bonds May Not Be Safe From Income Taxes http://t.co/MnIQIdor Would be a big shift, hit blue states hard. Won’t happen $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Chris Hayes’ Brilliant Explanation Of Money Is One Of The Best Things We’ve Ever Seen On TV http://t.co/e0kxN5oZ #goldstandard $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Comments and Retweets

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  • Good night. Blessings to all. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Think of judges in a court. No one will forgive a man for doing wrong in one area, because he has done good in others Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling It’s not a question of weakness but wrong. Divorce your wife for no good reason, cheat at your craft, all amounts 2 wrong Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Good question. God created Lance with a weakness. If Lance had trusted God, he could have overcome it, but he didn’t. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Not those that are God-given. Mt 5:48: “Therefore you shall be perfect, just as your Father in heaven is perfect.” Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling One last point: in the view of Jesus is there is no balancing. The least amount of evil poisons any good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Read some of the writings of Kahneman & Tversky. Bad things have 3 times the force of good things. Good doesn’t erase bad Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I get it. But doing good things does not erase bad things. Doing things that are notably bad tarnishes anything good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling I have heard the word as a part of popular culture, but have no idea what it is beyond a phrase. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I’ll bite. His charitable endeavors, but what else? Jan 18, 2013
  • @sallyeastman1 Well said Jan 18, 2013
  • My view: Lance Armstrong is best ignored. Close the browser window, change the channel on the TV, he will go away. I don’t care about him $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • @AboveAvgOdds Off to meet w/u & Chris Mayer in downtown Baltimore Jan 17, 2013
  • Endorse. I have read over half of these $$ RT @TheStalwart: The 22 books that Dylan Grice says you must read. http://t.co/QSOWvuBc Jan 17, 2013
  • @graemehein good point, but most simple models have obv intuition. Complex models have more potential 4 error b/c of 2nd+ order effects $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Others that did the same in 1994: Piper Jaffray’s Institutional Gov’t Income & FPA’s Fundamental US Gov’t Strategic Income funds Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Combined w/levering them, and not having the mathematical savvy to price them right http://t.co/5vkUxgO6 Story near the bottom Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Cate, you’re right, I’m wrong. At the time, David Askin & those like him were notable. W/Citron it was mostly structured notes Jan 17, 2013
  • @kirstensalyer Sorry, that honor belongs to the first quantitative hedge fund manager, Ben Graham, who was doing that in the 1920s Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Also used complex RMBS. There was kind of a contest 2c how much negative convexity one could absorb in exchange 4 yield Jan 17, 2013
  • RT @maxrudolph: #unintendedconsequences when pension regs set up EA designation cut off practitioners from ALM development. Still catchi … Jan 17, 2013
  • Well done $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Jim Chanos talks to @Reuters about Herbalife & whether Ackman or Loeb will win out: http://t.co/sV7B604o Jan 17, 2013
  • @finsovet @prieur @vitaliyk Honored 2b included in such a group Jan 17, 2013
  • Think this analysis is correct, but uncertain $$ RT @mickwe: 3D printing is a lot of hype and it’ll never go mainstream http://t.co/8wkr5oxp Jan 17, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “7 gut checks before the stock market?s opening bell” http://t.co/MrSqVXZF Jan 17, 2013
  • @niubi If so, good for him. He revolutionized my economic thinking with his last book. Looking forward to the next one. Review copy coming Jan 17, 2013
  • +1 RT @dpinsen: Paging @TomFriedman: comment on How a ‘model’ employee got away with outsourcing his work to China http://t.co/wukYAV8T $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • +2, scrap IFRS RT @Alea_: +1 Britain should scrap IFRS accounting standards, MPs told http://t.co/woWmyC2v Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks very different mindsets; marketing and operations r different from finance, which is still different from investing Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks I did that as well from 1992-1998. Tried very hard to select non-name-brand mgrs w/durable competitive advantages Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @ClayNickel It depends on how equitylike the bonds r, & the financing composition of the holders. If the bonds r financed w/sig debt.. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: The big deal about the German gold story isn’t that they’re taking some of it out of NY but that they’re moving *al … Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: @izakaminska has a thoughtful take on the base money debate between @interfluidity and @NYTimeskrugman http://t.co/ … Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @joshuademasi Good point. After all, most nations would love to swap for Norway’s economic situation. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Good insights both. We live in “interesting times” in the full meaning of the Chinese curse Jan 16, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Rieder is a bright guy, as is my friend Ed Meigs at First Eagle; HY is okay for the short run, but 2 years out… $$ #Boom! Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Yes Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf No, I don’t really find them persuasive. I do think that some Central Bank will stop sterilizing asset purchases, start new phase Jan 16, 2013
  • @JacPatterson I thought about that too, & think he really meant “English Language” Finance Blogs Jan 15, 2013
  • “But that also means you have to keep more $$ around if the puts get exercised, which Buffett had & many don’t.” http://t.co/uEIRn5i3 Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines the paragraph that starts ‘To screen out such “closet indexers,”‘ is factually wrong, does not understand statistics Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines I’m not arguing w/R2 as a proxy for active share, though there r better measures; article says correlation, means beta Jan 15, 2013
  • +10 Mmmmm… RT @dpinsen: Bresaola, lemon, olive oil, Parmesan, and basil joining forces for a great sandwich. http://t.co/pMMVmoI5 Jan 14, 2013
  • @abnormalreturns I’ve run into a *lot* of people trying to do this. Some are cleverer; not sure how it will work out… Jan 14, 2013
  • @JayLeonard but gold does control inflation and limits the government’s ability to use monetary policy for its own ends Jan 13, 2013
  • @JayLeonard Much of the difficulty is not gold vs not gold, but how banks were regulated — short liabs carrying long assets Jan 13, 2013
  • @GuldbergPeter Thanks, though I have heard that Canada *may* have issues. Jan 12, 2013
  • RT @GuldbergPeter: “@AlephBlog: Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? Sweden, Canada and actually to some … Jan 12, 2013

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FWIW

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  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 1 new listings, 67 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 17, 2013
Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

Some of the dumbest things I have seen in my life inside corporations revolve around incompetent managers, who don’t have the foggiest idea how to grow value organically, and use a variety of shortcuts or cheats to give an illusion of creating value by doing nothing.? I have given a few examples in these two articles:

Here are some more examples:

Some acquirers tend to despise the employees of firms that they acquire, and assume there is a lot of fat to be cut.? So it was that a client that I managed assets for that was acquired by a British company.? A few months after the acquisition the client firm announced that they were firing half of the accountants, and all of the accountants dealing with investing.? I went to the management of the firm that was a new client of ours and expressed my concerns, saying that they would lose all customization and control of results by outsourcing investment accounting — it could never be as responsive as retaining “in-house” staff.? Also, firing half of the remaining accountants would lose a lot of local knowledge where systems are deficient and need “hand holding’ with regular adjusting entries to make sure the accounting was correct.

In this example, the investment accountants were actually quite good, though their leader did not present well.? I had a good relationship with him and his staff, and helped them find new jobs, much as I hated to see them go.? I did the same for some of the other accountants that were let go, since I interacted with some of them as well.? It almost seemed like the new client wanted to eliminate all of the accountants with special long-term knowledge of the business, and retain the cheaper ones with less institutional knowledge/tenure.

As it was, my dealings with the new heads of financial reporting left me scratching my head, wondering why the new guys were a “trade up.”? They seemed to understand the issues less well than those they replaced, but were advertised to be really bright.? Okay, lost on me.

I relayed my concerns to my bosses, and they said, “Not much we can do.? We have the same ultimate parent company, but they’re not geared toward taking feedback at what would be such a micro level for them.? Let’s just watch and see what happens — if it is as bad as you think, it should materialize in six months or so.”

As it was, my bosses were right, and so was I.? For the first six months after the accounting change, profits were astounding.? The new management team was patting itself on the back, certain that their decisions were leading to greatly improved profitability.? (As an aside, I remember sitting through interminable meetings where new accounting software was being introduced. The old stuff was not good enough.)

Then came the year end audit, and new internal auditor plus new external auditors questioned accruals produced by the new outsourced investment accountants.? I was asked what the right approach was for accruing income on some obscure fixed income security.? Belying their cheap cost, the new investment accountants did not make the correcting entries into the system that the old accountants had, leading to a massive over-reporting of income.? Far from being more profitable than the past, it was far less profitable, despite all of the firings in accounting.

This was the first comeuppance of many for an untalented management team that eventually all got fired, as well as the ultimate CEO of the firm that trusted them, and invested a lot of money into that subsidiary.

Warnings to the wise: always analyze your profit margins in a competitive industry, and if results seem too good to be true, don’t accept them, push back and look at all of the squishier accrual items to see if there is an error.? Bad management teams accept good results without question, and criticize bad results always.? Good management teams criticize unusual results, whether good or bad, but bias income to the low side of fair, allowing small positive surprises to emerge.

Then there was the time where an insurance company that I worked for bought out a smaller company, and the hidden price of the deal was that the new CEO would be the CEO of the acquired company in a year.? Bad move.? The guy was an accountant, and his only means of “adding value” were cutting employees, and skimping on squishy accrual items.? While he was CEO, I kept track of how mach GAAP income outpaced my adjusted Statutory income, which should have been close to GAAP.

The CEO had a fragile personality as he did this, emphasizing that the team he had assembled (loyal, but less competent) was highly ethical.? As it was, the CFO tried to find ways to convert capital gains into regular income for GAAP but not tax purposes, which maximized ROE, which was the largest contributor to management bonuses.? They were even the first ones to try an unusual derivative marketed by Morgan Stanley — bull/bear notes, as they were called. It was a bond that would split in two after a certain trigger, leading to two bonds — one with a premium income that would be held, and one with a discount income that would be sold for a capital loss.

Sadly, the company had a hard time evaluating the offer, until they approached me.? (Here is where ability conflicts with ethics.)? The chief actuary (via the Peter Principle, but true of all of that management team) showed me the derivative, and I said, “Oh, that’s easy.”? I told him I would have results by the next morning, and it was 4PM already.? I took it home, worked on it through the evening, and the next day presented the result.

I told him that the math worked mostly, but that if the US Treasury applied anti-abuse rules, it would be invalidated.? I also told him that I didn’t think the transaction was ethical, because restructuring merely to avoid tax, and change the GAAP statement impact had no economic substance.

He ignored my warnings, and so I found myself a week later presenting before all of the leading managers of the company the details of the transaction to be.? (Before that, I talked to the instigator of the idea at Morgan Stanley, and showed him errors in his spreadsheet.? Do not assume that investment banks are infallible.? Also, don’t assume that actuaries or any quants are infallible.? They are human too, and subject to their own biases.? People often shout the word “science” when they are the most weak.)

I told them that I thought the idea was not ethical, but that it would do what was promised.? They were happy with that.? I was already known to be opinionated, though my results were very good.? That poisoned me with senior management which prized loyalty over truthfulness.

Two months later, I was working with a new firm, and the boss came to me and said, have you ever heard of bull/bear notes?? I roared with laughter, and puzzled, he looked at me and I said, “Heard of them?? I corrected their models!”

It should have been a warning sign because our client (the same as mentioned in the first story prior to the acquisition) was willing to consider such garbage in order to increase operating income.? Good managements don’t go for gimmicks.? Going for gimmicks means you aren’t focused on real organic growth.

So, we started in on a new transaction.? The rep from Morgan Stanley was surprised to talk to me again.? Very easy to do, because I knew the model as well as he did, or maybe better, much as I did not like it.

I went through the same schtick with the new client, but they were determined to do it no matter what.? I still remember being in a dim conference room with my boss, when FASB’s EITF [Emerging Issues Task Force] disallowed the transaction going forward, and required all of those that had done it do disclose the results in a footnote.? (Only one company had done it, my prior employer.)

-==-=–=-=-=-==-=–==-=-

The company that actually executed the bull/bear note eventually sold itself to another firm.? While I was working as a buy-side insurance company investment analyst, I got to meet the CFO of the company that bought them.? I said to him, “Would you like me to tell you the history of how this came to be?”? With a grim face he told me no.? It was a thing of pain, but he did not want to know the truth.? He kinda knew it already, and simply absorbed the loss.

With Epictetus, I can tell you that the truth will set you free.? Lies always constrain.? With Jesus, I can say, “You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”? This is far more personal, and useful, because Jesus himself lives to teach and protect his own. He is the Truth.

To all, I say, be wary of management teams that control results overly — this seems to be more common in finance, where results are harder to judge.? Finance is all accruals, which makes results ephemeral.

But good managers of financials are conservative.? That is the thing to look for in financials.? If my two examples above are not enough, it is not wise to buy financials that offer growth, because it often stems from scams, not real growth.

I have seen my share of fakers in this life in financial company management.? Be wary when you invest in financials; there is a reason why they are separate from industrials and utilities.? They are less reliable, particularly in time of stress.

So, to investors that care about what they invest in:

  • Analyze acquisitions — most aren’t good
  • Scrutinize accounting — most of the devils lie in accrual entries
  • Analyze management, if you can — understand their ethics, or lack thereof

I’ve written too long, but consider what I have said for your own good.? It will help you.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Greetings

 

  • To all of my readers: Happy New Year. Here is to a blessed and fulfilling 2013, amid troubles and joys – no year is w/o them, glory 2 God $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • To all of my readers: 2012 had its joys and sorrows, but I appreciate that you read me. I will always try to bring you my best on twitter $$ Jan 01, 2013

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US Fiscal Policy

 

  • Why the fights over disaster relief in Congress keep getting worse http://t.co/NZCEwU7N Local disasters increasing funded by Feds $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Sorry Folks, The $1 Trillion Coin Is Unconstitutional http://t.co/RXav6MlY h/t: @carney | Congress controls $$ policy, can’t delegate 2exec Jan 04, 2013
  • Why were there so many special interest provisions in the fiscal bill? Why didn’t the president veto it & ask 4a clean bill? #fiscalcliff411 Jan 04, 2013
  • Fresh Budget Fights Brewing http://t.co/lOdAltk7 Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief After Fiscal Clash, but Tax-and-Cut Battles Loom $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Infighting in GOP Follows Scuttling of Storm-Aid Vote http://t.co/cUQxnnu5 “Tin ear” When something big hits smaller principles must bow Jan 03, 2013
  • How Deal Was Made, Unmade, Then Saved http://t.co/xhHj15fs Surprising deal between Biden & McConnell did an end-around on other tries $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A trifecta of articles on pork in the fiscal cliff bill: http://t.co/0ymE51HH & http://t.co/iEvwLdxE & http://t.co/CCuMAXnS Shame $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Senate-Passed Deal Means Higher Tax on 77% of Households http://t.co/WvIyEkJT What! You thought your taxes would not increase?! Hahaha! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Deductions Limits Will Affect Many http://t.co/D0rteMMC Taxes are going up more than you think due to the phasing-out of deductions $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Ron Paul Rips Government in Last House Speech http://t.co/UuwfSI9o He was 2good 2b in DC; now he can be a rock star on college campuses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Sequestration Threat To Defense Sector Begins To Recede http://t.co/QYACs66b Grateful that I did not sell my defense stocks $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Bipartisan House Backs Tax Deal Vote as Next Fight Looms http://t.co/Ns4SgHKX Both sides claim victory & decry dishonesty of the other $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • As an aside, when I had the chance to ask Ron Paul whether the Fed’s policies favored rich over poor, he immediately said, “Of course.” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • House Balks at Cliff Deal; Down2Wire as Republicans Object2Lack of Spending Cuts in Senate Bill http://t.co/FkS6o1Ms Fall off cliff $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Lawmakers push one-year extension of farm bill in bid to avert spike in milk prices http://t.co/bRroFoo4 Please, just free milk prices $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • US loses if we go over the Fiscal cliff = US wins if we go over the Fiscal cliff | Some will be b affected 4 better/worse; US will b ok $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • US petroleum rail shipments up nearly 50% in 2012 http://t.co/kQnGw63v Only way to get additional crude to the coasts in the short-run $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Buffett Like Icahn Reaping Tank Car Boom From Shale Oil http://t.co/ekehRs3Y Buffett keeps all tank cars he produces-> BN can ship oil $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A Novel Ship Extends Shell’s Reach http://t.co/RAEtM1fH High technology at work in offshore oil drilling. Impressive! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Shale-Gas Revolution Spurs Wave of New US Steel Plants http://t.co/XEuaDiKY Ask this: what other impacts exist from cheap natgas? $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Financials

 

  • “Did the authors look at the “Call Reports” filed with the FDIC? More public data there. Kinda sloppy to miss that.” http://t.co/vCtQkZmu $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Why Bank Disclosure Is So Awful and How to Fix It http://t.co/RwW45LG5 Did they try reading the call reports? http://t.co/vAYMh7wE @carney Jan 04, 2013
  • BofA Joins JPMorgan in Having Units Ripe for Sale, Mayo Says http://t.co/4DtCCVdR Is there enough slack $$ around 2 absorb all of these? Jan 03, 2013
  • US Money Fund Exposure and European Banks: Eurozone Rises for Fifth-Straight Month http://t.co/nfWYO4jv “Risk on” MMF trade returning $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Insurer Sues Paulson Firm http://t.co/XFGKNGWB Does not seem like an easy win. ACA should have done more due diligence; they r pros $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Basel Becomes Babel as Conflicting Rules Undermine Safety http://t.co/1QIyVdR5 Rules, not principles. External models, not internal $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Big RIA Firm Uses Bible to Advise Clients http://t.co/9mtmySTo Almost every Evangelical w/$$ knows of Ron Blue; never knew he was so big $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Buffett Combines BofA With Buybacks to Beat S&P 500 http://t.co/zo8kLdNz FD: + $BRK.B | BRK is a conglomerate fueled by insurance prems $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million http://t.co/VoFVh6Oi Cheap price 2 become part of the ratings triopoly $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Fixed Income, Gold & Monetary Policy

 

  • Gold Heads 4 Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2004 http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P Key Q: What happens to real interest rates; will Fed tighten? $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Gold Set for Worst Run Since ?04 as Fed Signals End of Purchases http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P I would b skeptical here; no idea what the Fed does Jan 04, 2013
  • Risk Seen in Some Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/c7rROhEE Many CMBS bonds seem 2b priced 2 perfection, while some fundamental weakness $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Does the Fed need a new mandate? http://t.co/NkfjhSeG Fed should have one mandate: tighten policy when goods or asset markets go crazy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Fed Officials Divided on Bond Buys http://t.co/7Gh6y8tn & increasingly worried about stimulus side effects http://t.co/SomUi1uK $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • While still holding $TLT, my bond strategy did well today b/c of all the emerging market bonds.TLT is a deflation hedge http://t.co/TiTMg6So Jan 02, 2013
  • TCW to Pimco Bet on Housing Bond Rally After 41% Gain http://t.co/DcXmVEj9 Feels like squeezing last drop of juice out of the lemon $$ 😉 Jan 02, 2013
  • Credit Has Best Rally in Europe Since 2009 With Central Bank Aid http://t.co/csZD3K8n At a cost of socializing future losses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Why Bernanke?s policies could hurt the economy more than going over the ?fiscal cliff? http://t.co/EZDkZ6Sv Favors rich over poor $$ Jan 02, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • TV is Next: Why Investors Are Getting the Media Industry Wrong http://t.co/yLoZRU55 52 pp PDF | $AMCX $CBS $DIS $NWSA $VIAB $TWC $TWX $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • U.S. Electricity Use on Wane http://t.co/dEiZBCDe A good time to avoid overpriced electrical utility stocks, and alternative energy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Of $30.9B Special Dividends in Q4, 28.6% Went To Insiders http://t.co/QTalSmva Interesting skew on who decided to do special divs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • A Really Good Year?Wins and Losses of 2012 http://t.co/zS69udit Fridson: “Rather than being reassured, investors should be worried,” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Avis?s smart Zipcar buy http://t.co/SEgD8JPJ Too early. Depends on refinancing, expenses saves, & uncertain synergies & mgmt attention $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Tribune Co. Emerges From Bankruptcy http://t.co/mUGITwmt So who owns the equity interests in Tribune now? Dec 31, 2012
  • Risk defined. http://t.co/eC3U00Lb @microfundy gives us three common definitions of risk & explains the virtues & deficiencies of each $$ Dec 30, 2012
  • The Six Biggest Investing Lessons of 2012 http://t.co/XWHRu0nG @reformedbroker takes us through mean reversion, momentum, & optimism $$ Dec 30, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China Poised for 2013 Rebound as Debt Risks Rise for Xi http://t.co/0P9o0HzX Investment will not work, but will the Govt free the economy? Jan 04, 2013
  • El Al?s Shamir Parachutes Into Israeli Vote as Liberman Fades http://t.co/Yyi2iGAv Would heighten tension level if Shamir is elected $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chavez Cancer Imperils $7 Billion Caribbean Oil Funding http://t.co/j5MLSeYx Lot of “
  • Why 49 Is a Magic Number http://t.co/F2DPpmtV France has a lot of firms that have only 49 workers b/c onerous regulations kick in at 50 $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist http://t.co/mCMokL6T Cartel reminds of De Beers. Competitive supply makes it impossible 2 fix prices $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases http://t.co/9v7Sf1AH If u haven’t let debt get too large, austerity works $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase http://t.co/L0NCTpo7 Kind of fitting that they come to Canada & US 2gain freedom after wealth $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • At Europe’s Doorstep, Fierce War Against TB http://t.co/2Z41atWb Makes good case4 quarantine when diseases r highly infectious/deadly $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Japan?s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease http://t.co/OTHuGOY1 Economies don’t work well when population falls $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Chavez Suffers New Complications After Fourth Cancer Operation http://t.co/fqIwxz8R If he dies by 1/10, there will b a new election $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Then I Watch ‘Em Roll Away Again http://t.co/2uF2LKhf The fascinating story of Otis Redding’s final hit. cc: @reformedbroker $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Threatening Asteroid Will Narrowly Miss Earth in 2040 http://t.co/buih448d That means it will come within twice the distance of the Moon $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Outmaneuvered at Their Own Game, Antivirus Makers Struggle to Adapt http://t.co/wD6LAA7l Whitelisting, Petri Dishes, Cleanup programs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Disease Rips Through Florida Citrus http://t.co/zXlZEXX0 Bacteria Deal Slow Deaths to Trees; diversify to Brazil & California $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Pattern time: 1-1-13 11:13 PM $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • For-Profit Nursing Homes Lead in Overcharging While Care Suffers http://t.co/6RTKMhdq Choose nursing homes 4 your loved ones w/care $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “Minds work best when they r castles, w/a moat, drawbridge raised, defenders ready 2destroy thoughts of deceivers w/arrows & boiling oil” $$ Jan 01, 2013

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: In a Diverse New Congress, Several ‘Firsts’ http://t.co/Xy3HVjlo Congress not genuinely diverse; 2 types of thought @ most $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Wrong: This Dow Component Has A 4.5% Yield And Sells For Less Than Book http://t.co/f9AFrt4t My comment: http://t.co/5T9XMJZW $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • Wrong: Benevolent Billionaires Should Buy Out Bushmaster http://t.co/iicdOxOd Monstrously dumb column asks liberal billionaires 2 lose $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • Wrong: Gauging the Guidance That Models Give the Fed http://t.co/J63vKEWM Neoclassical macro models r not capable of getting turning pts Dec 31, 2012

 

Replies, Comments & Retweets

  • @finemrespice @merrillmatter DB plans could have been managed better. Funding rules were too loose @ creation, & IRS discouraged overfunding Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It would then send out notices to the oldest people not yet retired, bringing the retiree pop up to 1/3 size of workers $$ 😉 Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice At ~3 workers : 1 retiree. Yearly the government would measure the number of workers & announce the # that can retire (2/3) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It’s a good idea. It would stabilize %age of people retired vs working. Another way would b2 set the ratio directly (1/2) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice Good idea – Make it a %age (~80%) of the life expectancy of a 20-yr old. %age goes up if pop proj 2 shrink & vice-versa $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @carney Thanks, appreciated. Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney delegate so much of its rulemaking to study committees. Most of the Dodd-Frank law is getting designed by bureaucrats. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney Having a hard time commenting at @CNBC on yr articles. If Congress can’t delegate significant lawmaking, how does Dodd-Frank 1/2 $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • “I think you are right. Why is it that bad monetary ideas get more “currency” than good ones? 😉 ” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/VbCZpinR $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • You can read my comment $$ RT @BloombergView: It’s time for Japanese women to honor their Gloria Steinem | http://t.co/8brsJJ1v Jan 04, 2013
  • ‘ @TheEconomist Cover preview: America turns European. January 5th ? 11th 2013 http://t.co/JuBYRyZW Europe is in far worse shape $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @NorthmanTrader: @AlephBlog speaking fees in 4 years….. Jan 04, 2013
  • @insidermonkey Bigger firms chain together a bunch of 49-person subsidiaries. The French allow it to happen. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • @Dirty_Alfred @TFMkts Key Question: Do financial institutions have enough capital & liquidity to absorb losses,turning debt into equity? $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • @groditi I like the added duration so I don’t have to hold so much of it. More room 4 other diversifying bonds w/more potential Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @mcgilcoli: @AlephBlog a pox on both their houses! Jan 02, 2013
  • RT @AsifSuria: Agreed but they should have replaced Black Swan with Fooled by Randomness. MT @AlephBlog: This is a great list. http://t. … Jan 02, 2013
  • This is a great list. I have read almost all of them. Here are my disagreements. Aswath Damoradan… http://t.co/ATKQ6wkG Jan 02, 2013
  • If he can stop that weird grin, I can stop $$ RT @BloombergView: Can we all please stop laughing at Joe Biden? | http://t.co/xJlpt8wI Jan 02, 2013
  • @ritholtz I have a Tex-Mex Lasagne recipe near me. There r a lot of unusual/fusion recipes that borrow the layering idea from Lasagne $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This is why I use momentum positively in most of my investing, even though I buy a lot of undervalued companies” http://t.co/WlFQV6Py $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This applies to wealthy people anywhere; at times of crisis, give up 5-20% to preserve 80-95%.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/XFa6akOC $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Great, I respect you, Carney. We don’t always agree, but I respect those that say what they think, contra politicians. $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @McCainBlogette I am sorry, but every generation from the Baby Boomers & prior deserves progressively more blame. You don’t deserve blame $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Am I MSM, or am I just a blogger? I support the debt ceiling. Jan 02, 2013
  • Sad but true $$ RT @The_Analyst: making early call that’s your best/most accurate tweet of the year. Somehow she’s worth like $200mm. Ugh. Jan 02, 2013
  • Does she realize the she herself is a natural disaster? $$ RT @MicroFundy: Pelosi explaining how natural disasters happen. #nightisyoung Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @volatilitysmile: @TheStalwart best motivation to close a negotiation: being tired, wanting to just go home. cc @HarvardBiz Jan 02, 2013
  • U do it well RT @TheStalwart: Not to get sappy, but had a great 2012. Awesome year. Thanks everyone following and reading and all that stuff Jan 01, 2013
  • Yes, default is often the major form of deleveraging $$ RT @ZH_Crown: @AlephBlog @cate_long http://t.co/1nZlMA36 Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long & the other point is during a financial bust, enough debt has 2b liquidated/compromised/paid 4 things 2 become “normal” Dec 31, 2012
  • @fbaseggio @interfluidity @rfraserTX That could work; only difficulty is getting the data; oh, &getting the politicians 2 give up control $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Yeh, saw that at the time; one reason we were short so many financials at the hedge fund I worked at — too early Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Good bond mgrs know that when as class of debt is plentiful, you have to avoid it. Hard 2do amid benchmarking though $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Bad institutional incentives like the CDO mkt had 1998-2007, fed by fin’l institutions reaching for yield even in AAAs Dec 31, 2012
  • @cate_long Consumers may not be as leveraged as they were in 2008, but they r still highly levered relative to history amid high unemp $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @GonzoEcon @cate_long Businessmen do not take risks when their own leverage is high &

they know their customers r in the same boat $$ Dec 31, 2012

  • ‘ @cate_long No such thing as “animal spirits.” If leverage high, caution is warranted. Low leverage allows 4 borrowing 4 new projects $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: RT @tylercowen: So many say Obama is bad negotiator, but isn’t he actually rolling “the left” and secretly in league wi … Dec 31, 2012
  • @dpinsen That *is* cheap. Pity I can’t use them 4 clients — self-imposed simplicity Dec 30, 2012
  • Fingernails, def RT @ReformedBroker: Should I take the kids to the Les Miz movie? Or just stay home and pull my fingernails out one by one? Dec 30, 2012
  • “If you didn’t mention #4, I was going to. I am still long $TLT for clients, but toward the end of?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9CGLXgiT $$ Dec 29, 2012

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 36 retweets received, 3 new listings, 57 new followers, 69 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 03, 2013

 

Evaluating Regulated Financials

Evaluating Regulated Financials

Dear readers, I repost here an edited version of what I shared with a Linked-in group:

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I took Benefit-Cost Analysis from Dr. Hanke of Johns Hopkins in 1980, and so I never gained the benefit of his current proprietary tweaks to the Discounted Cash Flows model for stock valuation.? That said, application of DCF to any regulated financial company is difficult, because not all of the capital is free to be deployed into investment in new business, stock buybacks, or dividends.

The level of required capital at a regulated financial varies with the risks of the blocks of business (liabilities) that it underwrites, the assets they buy with the proceeds from the liabilities, and the cash flow, currency and other mismatches between the assets and the liabilities.

The marginal amount of capital for new business and investments may be significantly different than what is required for old business.? So here is my question to the group, especially the students, to think about: how would you apply your DCF model to a situation like this?

Notes, Mostly on Financials

Three final notes: 1) If you want to experiment with this, here are five very different insurers that are my current favorites: RGA (life reinsurance), ENH (P&C insurance & reinsurance), AIZ (Life, P&C, Warranties, Pensions & Individual Health), SFG (disability), & NWLI (Life insurance and annuities sold to foreigners for flight capital).? Try applying the model to one, and see what you get.

2) Most real risk in large financials does not come from inadequacy of capital, but from borrowing short and investing/lending long.? The key measure is whether an institution has enough high-quality short-term assets to meet a run on the institution, where those that supply funds to the institution demand them back at the same time.

With life insurance companies, failures occasionally happen from a run on the company (General American and ARM financial in 1999), but more often, because regulators think the capital base has shrunk too much because of bad credit risks, and take the company into conservation. (Pacific Standard, Confederation, Kentucky Central, near-miss w/The Equitable, etc.)

With P&C insurers and reinsurers, failure happens because bad underwriting leads to a shrinkage of capital, and the regulators take them into conservation. (Think of Reliance and Saul Steinberg, though a lot of reinsurers were de facto bankrupt in the mid-1980s, but the regulators didn’t catch them.)

With small banks and thrifts, it?s credit problems versus capital.? Liquidity does not usually play a role because of deposit guarantees.

With large banks, it is illiquid and longer assets versus short financing.? In the recent crisis, much of that came from financing mortgage inventories in the repurchase market, where financing had to be renewed daily, and margin requirements in derivative financing that had to be adjusted daily.? In the latter case, a credit downgrade would trigger a need for more capital to be put up as margin, just at the time when liquidity was scarce.? In the former case, deteriorating prices for the assets financed in the repurchase market led to an increase in the capital haircut, requiring more liquidity out of the borrowers at the time they could least afford it. (AIG, Wachovia, Countrywide, etc.)

Finally, remember that the financial markets are talkative.? No one wants to hold unsecured credit from a bank they think will go broke, so if there is a reasonable doubt on failure, liquidity dries up because other banks stop dealing with you (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, etc.)

As an example in my own life, back when I managed and traded corporate bonds back in 2002, when the market was feeling a lot of stress, I joked with my broker, ?Hey, is XYZ Corp trading flat yet??? (With most corporate bonds, when you settle a trade, the pro-rata portion of the next interest payment is added to the price.? A bond like XYZ Corp, when its solvency is doubtful, the dealers start settling bond trades assuming it will not make another payment.)? He told me that it was not trading flat.? The high yield manager, Ed, sitting next to me, after the call ended said, ?Just a matter of time.?

Half an hour later, my broker that talked with before called me back, and in an edgy voice said ?XYZ Corp is now trading flat!? and quickly ended the call.? Ed looked at me and said, ?Dave, don?t do that again.?

Liquidity is plenteous when you don?t need it, and scarce when really needed.? Remember that when investing in financials.

3) The Baltimore CFA Society gives significant discounts for students that want to attend our meetings.? $10 gets you a $30 meal and an interesting speaker or two, so consider yourselves invited.? Next meeting on January 11th is one of our bigger ones.? You even get to meet the aforementioned ?Ed.?

Full disclosure: long RGA, AIZ, NWLI, ENH, SFG

Follow-up from “On Watchlists”

Follow-up from “On Watchlists”

Before I start this evening, I wanted to point out something that the Googlebots dragged in.? It’s a list of all the RSS feeds currently created for Aleph Blog.? Note: I only created two of those, the main feed, and the comments feed.? The others were created by readers.? To that end, if you want a specialized Aleph Blog feed, there is probably a way to create it.? Suppose you want all my articles on insurance or personal finance, but not my icky macroeconomics posts.? There is a way to do it.? So if you only want a *part* of the Aleph Blog, set up a customized RSS feed.

One more unrelated trivia question: as of the end of 2011, how many states does Berkshire Hathaway have an insurer domiciled in?? The answer did not surprise me, but it was interesting learning the answer.

-=-==-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Here’s a comment from a reader on yesterday’s post:

Love the blog, and really appreciate each new submission you create.

I?d love to hear more about ?valuation metrics, sentiment variables, and other factors.? Are these quantitative formulas that I could adopt for myself? I like the idea of ranking your current and prospective holdings. What method do you use to assign a value to each company for grouping?

First you need to read this article of mine.? As for valuation metrics, I use past earnings, forward earnings, book value, Free cash flow, and sales — I give higher weights to free cash flow, book value, and sales.? Earnings are more commonly manipulated.

Other variables: one year price momentum, four-year price momentum, insider buying/selling, yield, neglect ($ volume traded versus market cap), realized stock price volatility, net operating accruals, asset growth and sales growth.

I adjust the weightings period by period.? The changes usually aren’t big, but I adjust the weights to reflect what is out of favor.

For values that are infinite, I input 999.? One more note: I use the ranks of each variable against the stocks owned and contenders, not the actual value to do my rankings.

Here’s a comment from another reader on yesterday’s post:

A bit off topic, David, but something I?ve been thinking about:

Given your comments about incremental improvements, what do you think about the idea that investment manager performance should be judged not by the returns of the portfolio, but by the returns of the new ideas and sold ideas versus the static portfolio? i.e. measure the value of the decisions made recently versus those made in the past?

Given the wide availability of 13-Ds and our ability to copycat others with low-turnover strategies, might this not be a better measure of the value investors are getting for the fees they?re paying?

I do one unusual thing with my stocks.? I list them by order of purchase.? Why? It gives me a feel for whether old or new ideas are working.? But my experience has been that stocks I sell tend to do badly, with some exceptions.? Please don’t talk to me about the sale of NTE, which I sold because the management became more aggressive, and I did not like that.? I really failed there.

But here is the problem: investment managers choose the overall bias that they invest toward.? They should bear some responsibility for their choices, unless they have a fleet of funds that cover almost all relevant areas.

In my own investing, I have not seen any difference over the long haul regarding my new investments versus older investments.? There are times when new or old do better, and times where they are pretty similar.? Since I score my investments quarterly, older investments have to show promise regularly.? Those that show less promise get tossed.? Those with more promise get kept.

The important thing in investing (leaving aside tax implications) is focusing forward.? If something is cheap relative to prospects, don’t sell it.? It is far better to simply understand which of your existing investments are the most marginal in expected returns, so that you can use those as a source of cash when you find promising opportunities.

Full disclosure: long BRK/B

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Macroeconomics

 

  • Here’s my plan for reducing the deficit: http://t.co/XJPjf8A5 #mydeficitplan via @wsj Draconian, I know, but the budget shoould b balanced Dec 21, 2012
  • Canada?s exports crucial as sluggish growth continues: IMF http://t.co/iIOJ6PoF Bank of Canada should raise rates 2 reduce excessive debt $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Everything You Need To Know About the Economy in 2012, in 34 Charts http://t.co/aXnjSkR0 Good stuff; could have been formatted better $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Fiscal Cliff’s Dirty Secret: It’s Not About Taxes At All, But Too Much Spending http://t.co/UY8rKW9h We need 2 deal w/SS, Medicare & Defense Dec 20, 2012
  • We?ve Nationalized the Home Mortgage Market. Now What? http://t.co/YSCrvVmK Congress loves 2 have cows around that they can milk for $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • EU Banking Re-Unions http://t.co/khSA0co0 The lack of a timetable indicates that things aren’t really finalized; not sure this will fly $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ?Spending Cuts? Lose Something in Translation http://t.co/DYFxVMno Only in DC is reducing planned growth in spending called a cut $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Money Funds Brace for Flood http://t.co/4J7VWuxx MMFs r between a rock & a hard place: loose Fed policy & regulatory over-reach $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wall Street’s Biggest Geniuses Reveal Their Favorite Charts Of 2012 http://t.co/at12mMsV Very long, but lots of good stuff $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • My forward estimates, derived from TIPS are rising, 2014 inflation, and 2018-2022 inflation. The latter has… http://t.co/tgrGfiDG Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2018-2022 inflation rate continues to rise: http://t.co/ebqeM5KJ Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2014 inflation rate continues to rise: http://t.co/ZrvIc5Nk Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation Dec 19, 2012
  • Economics may be dismal, but it is not a science http://t.co/I6B9LbSw No universal economic theory, & new economic thinking must be eclectic Dec 18, 2012
  • Fisher: Fed Risks ‘Hotel California’ Monetary Policy http://t.co/fRKOYl9d When the Fed starts 2 tighten, it will b hard 2 do $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • FDIC Guarantee Program Set to Expire After Senate Block http://t.co/qPdQNWQF Will squeeze the short end of the yield curve further $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • US Banks Lack Liquidity to Withstand Crisis, Study Says http://t.co/psmQEP1z Liquidity mismatches r pernicious; key risk gets ignored $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Mkts r discounting mechanisms. Temporary events like bond ratings, debt ceiling & fiscal cliff should not affect market much $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • So, as an example, if the govt runs a deficit, it should not stimulate much b/c people discount future econ adjustment b/c of more debt $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Same 4 monetary policy; the Fed can “stimulate” as much as it likes; mkt players discount the future removal of policy, inflation, etc. $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Cliff? What Cliff? http://t.co/QEvklDQU Or maybe, just maybe investors don’t care whether we go over the “fiscal cliff” or not. $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Stocks & Sectors

 

  • There are 272 gold & silver companies trading on US exchanges or OTC. 59 of them have mkt caps > $100M. 22 of them have mkt caps > $1B $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Aviva Sells US Life Business to Apollo for $1.8B http://t.co/UqM2kqyr When Aviva bot Amerus, I said that they overpaid massively. Proof $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Value Investing In Practice: A Conversation About Oaktree Capital http://t.co/4FVok5wz Good value investing does not hyper-diversify $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ICE in Deal to Buy NYSE http://t.co/ik348vsZ New era; expect 2c more deals like this. As an aside average holders of $NYX stock lost $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Buffett’s Leading The Corporate Buyback Surge http://t.co/U3piJgDv He has the $$, & 1.2x BV is a defensible floor ||| FD: + $BRK.B Dec 19, 2012
  • Investment Fads and Themes by Year, 1996-2012 http://t.co/cvLFKyRE @reformedbroker on what the broad themes this year & back to 1996 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Alterra up after deal, analyst positive on Bermuda peers http://t.co/Y5jTB40c Room 4 a new round of consolidation. $MKL buys $ALTE $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • $ALL Bets on Home Insurance as Stock Rally Withstands Sandy http://t.co/XBQOOSB5 Insured damages (excl flood) low4 Sandy; premratesflat $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Stocks Held Hostage as CEOs Plan Spending Cuts http://t.co/5c7nBKAS It is difficult to avoid deflation; so much uncertainty presently $$ Dec 18, 2012

 

Credit & Fixed Income

 

  • Swaps ?Armageddon? Lingers as New Rules Concentrate Risk http://t.co/QK3s19Hz Clearinghouses r not a panacea; it is possible 4 them 2 fail Dec 21, 2012
  • Americans Hacked Don?t Know Chamber Left Them Alone http://t.co/DSBDUijq Common programs place yr computr @ risk; CoC defends SW makers $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • The Indianapolis 500 of Corporate Bonds Yields http://t.co/dCamXED3 Too much $$ flowing into corporate credit; feels like 2006 Dec 20, 2012
  • India Cash-for-Gold Loans Hide Shadow-Banking Risks http://t.co/BGnO4YWI 2much lending creates a mess; 2much secured lending creates a panic Dec 20, 2012
  • Pimco Sees Spreading Slowdown Boosting [Australian] Bonds http://t.co/oDFSkGoF Pimco buying the debt of fringe developed nations $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • CAB Legislation Expected in January http://t.co/TSuxBmM4 California legislation proposed 2 limit issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Why China May Be Facing US-Style Credit Crunch http://t.co/99xMzC3M “To some extent, this is fundamentally a Ponzi scheme,” [Xiao] said. $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Pimco’s Gross Cuts Back on MBS http://t.co/4FaxLTKq Lightening up on MBS & Corporates, buying developed fringe, sticking w/TIPS $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Mind the rate risk http://t.co/nVqjlWW9 Rates may stay low 4 a while, but when they run up, total returns could b worse than 1994 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Spain House Prices – Deconstructing Spain http://t.co/7ARRPZqS Housing prices continue 2fall, more foreclosures, setting up bad bank fund $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Valero Received Approval 2 Ship US Crude 2 Quebec Refinery http://t.co/ojABCqu1 Could b start of something big: US exports oil FD:+ $VLO Dec 20, 2012
  • Extracting shale oil from a Dead Cow http://t.co/bok4bNE7 Interesting: after the expropriation of Repsol that oil majors line up4more $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Gasoline at US Pumps Drops to Lowest in a Year on Supply Gain http://t.co/4pI5SXiV Good news coming to users of refined fuel products $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • California refiners dreamin’ of shale oil face hurdles http://t.co/vJgiW4rm Many efforts t get cheap oil 2 CA; $24/bbl price difference $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Other

 

  • CEOs Concerned about the Time and Cost of Implementing Predictive Analytics http://t.co/QcABrcFH Big data facilitates cluster pricing $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • In the Flesh: The Embedded Dangers of Untested Stem Cell Cosmetics http://t.co/de2aio1V Adult stem cells can do as much harm as good $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • The First Time Tech Ruined the Music Business http://t.co/d0RE4002 As technologies improve all manner of “rights” issues crop up $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Advisers Question Modern Portfolio Theory http://t.co/lLbCVvgL Look through the security 2 the underlying economics of the investment $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Twitter has started rolling out the option to download all your tweets http://t.co/IIOVO6mJ Not common yet, but may b coming soon $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Schools Safer Than 1990s as Educators Anticipate Killers http://t.co/aQaB6G6Q Students r far less likely2b killed in school than elsewhere Dec 17, 2012
  • Highest-Paid California Trooper Is Chief Banking $484,000 http://t.co/JwgYWfg2 Giving officers comp time rather than $$ 4 unused vacation Dec 17, 2012
  • ‘Followers for sale’: Twitter’s very own black market http://t.co/HKCqo074 Fake Follower Check will estimate how many followers r real $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • SEC Says Asset Firm Manipulated Trades to Enrich Some Clients http://t.co/L8IJQ77k I remember their ads, proclaiming their track record $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Wrong

  • Bad idea: Africa Dreams of Building Telescopes to Study Space http://t.co/gSwkKIBs Would make more sense 4 Africa to fix agriculture $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wrong: US should intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh process at the highest level http://t.co/2tJTKtht We should stick 2r own business $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Wrong: This is why I generally don’t like Quartz; pretending to be smart $$ RT Our favorite charts of 2012 http://t.co/w2bvLDvX Dec 18, 2012

 

Replies & Comments

  • “This would have been a better article if you had put separators between each graph/explanation.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/uoMy61H1 $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Thanks, Eddy. Dec 19, 2012
  • @geekpryde Hey, thanks for the kind words, I appreciate that you follow me. Dec 19, 2012
  • @VIXandMore Ludwig is letting us down, and 3 days after his birthday. Call Schroeder 😉 Dec 19, 2012
  • @Alea_ Cool new avatar, I like it Dec 19, 2012
  • @Money_in_Stereo Well said, though I am not an expert there. Thanks for sharing that. Dec 18, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Hint: if company is offering u a nice buyout, they r offering less than its worth, unless u no more about when u will die $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • @volatilitysmile @carney I knew a close adviser of Mozillo; he told me stories of how disconnected Angelo was w/reality in 2009 $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • @nicster There have been many changes, but they are all local, and don’t make the news. US Govt was stupid on the shoe bomb. Local better $$ Dec 15, 2012

Retweets

  • Amazing RT @moorehn: “the average lifespan of American musical superstars in the pop, rock and rap genre is only 45.” http://t.co/uXVNuStF Dec 20, 2012
  • Practically. Old bond mgr rule: underweight the most rapidly growing debt class $$ RT @ToddSullivan: didn’t they already do student loan? Dec 20, 2012
  • Remember deriving formula when younger $$ RT @munilass: Twelve Days of Christmas and tetrahedral numbers http://t.co/VVNnyU2V (via @ptak) Dec 20, 2012
  • You can say that again $$ RT @japhychron: @AlephBlog Always funny the way they call economics a science. Studying people is anything but. Dec 18, 2012
  • Banks are insolvent & w/large & rapidly growing budget deficit $$ RT @FGoria: DJ: Cyprus May Be Days Away From Default — Fin Min Official Dec 17, 2012
  • Sad & dumb $$ RT @carney: You’d never guess who has a completely self-serving & bonkers theory of the financial crisis. http://t.co/LIAd8WqB Dec 17, 2012

 

Twitter Summary

  • My week on twitter: 72 retweets received, 1 new listings, 85 new followers, 132 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 20, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Eurozone

 

  • Depression Deepens Greek Middle Class Despair With Crime http://t.co/PlMwTLpw They need to leave the euro & end early retirement $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Global Shipping Industry?s Troubles R Threat for Biggest German Banks http://t.co/ZKojm5iZ During good times bankers forget cyclicality $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • All recent French Presidents are good examples of why the power of the office should be weakened & term shortened http://t.co/NbtxCyJY $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Don?t Tax Our Wine Irish Cry as Austerity Finds Threshold http://t.co/HdL8bkLI Alcohol exists 2 prevent the Irish from ruling the world $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Paris Faces Darkness as City Set for Illumination Ban http://t.co/sbmoaBEv French politicians r the worst enemies France has $$ #inthedark Dec 05, 2012
  • Paulson Said to Blame Bet Against Europe4 Most of Loss http://t.co/AHDHtUNK Betting on disaster is tough; getting timing right tougher $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Merkel’s euro push leaves E. Germany out in the cold http://t.co/3T9Yw6Uu Angela faces weakness in E. Germany politically & economically $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • France Sexy No More for Entrepreneurs Escaping Hollande http://t.co/S8OVxgRu The “invisible foot” opposes increasing taxes in France $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Fed Exit Plan May Be Redrawn as Assets Near $3 Trillion http://t.co/u4Ek0vbc The Fed will never significantly shrink its balance sheet $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Bernanke Cliff Analogy Overstates Immediate Economic Harm http://t.co/dSQxcMtP After the cliff, 2014 will be a good year, &2015 better $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • At Press Conference After ECB Interest Rate Decision, Draghi Faces Frustrations & Mistrust http://t.co/nzpJhUE3 No magic, only illusions $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • How canceling central banks? holdings of government debt could be a useful thing http://t.co/mOdKposd I don’t agree, but worth reading $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Fed holds lenders’ feet to the fire on mortgages http://t.co/PpeKIjQm Simple: absence of competition w/the lack of shadow banking $$ Dec 04, 2012

 

US Politics

 

  • Fannie and Freddie Are Not Piggy Banks http://t.co/8H5VVXg2 Tosh, Congress loves a slush fund, Fed’l Financing Bank, FHA, Ag credit sys $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Obama?s Tax Increases Will Find the Middle Class http://t.co/8ai0z1ID @cabaum1 After all, that is where most of the income 2 tax is $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Push to Curb Union Power Advances in Michigan http://t.co/Qiw3HyyU No one should be forced to join a union, or pay dues 2 get any job $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • The Real Reason Warren Buffett Should Pay More Taxes http://t.co/UOWtRvA9 Labor & Capital should b taxed @ same rate, w/no deferral $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Obama?s Tax Plan Would Spare Many Affluent Families http://t.co/C33CRpGi Why the definition of income is more important than tax rates $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Defense Industry Cuts Exceed 500,000 Workers Over Cliff http://t.co/065xIlv2 Living on the DC side of Baltimore, the effect will be big $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Greenspan Says Painless Solution to US Debt is Fantasy http://t.co/fO15WZ1P This is one of the two times per day for this stopped clock $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Medicare is unsustainable in current form http://t.co/WNoFEsKo “As it stands now, Medicare cannot keep its promises 2future seniors” $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Deck the Halls with Macro Follies http://t.co/7gGKMN4R A new video from the guy who brought you Keynes vs. Hayek at EconStories.tv $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Sallie Krawcheck should not run the SEC http://t.co/AECw2pun Her prior career does not suggest that she would be a good regulator $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Elizabeth Warren would bring real smarts to the position. Now if we can find spots for Barofsky and Kauffman. http://t.co/sTf2Piy8 Dec 05, 2012
  • Wrong: Five States 2Increase Class Time in Some Schools http://t.co/BNY4Twj4 Little correlation btw class time & educational progress $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Republicans Reprise 2011 Debt-Limit Threat in Cliff Talks http://t.co/njnFXhVO This is not a 2-player game but a 3-player game: t-party $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Obama Bets Re-Election Gave Him Power to Win Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/1hA1Xn4j Think this idea is overplayed; players same now as b4 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 We need genuine capitalists, & not defenders of Wall Street & big business @ the SEC $$ @davidgaffen @footnoted @nminow @Reuters Dec 03, 2012

 

Pensions

 

  • Benefits Leader Reins In 401(k)s http://t.co/Z8foHZLK $IBM defers 401(k) match 2 yearend; if u leave early, except retiring, u lose $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Baby boomers need annuity simplicity http://t.co/34gJlJKA SPIAs r good annuities don’t sell b/c agents never earn another commission $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Milwaukee task force studies changes to pension system http://t.co/GHBuGNGf Will raise retirement ages & lower the multipliers 4 svc yrs $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Officials call pension reforms a must http://t.co/64PzD8UI Kentucky reduces future pension benefits; good 4 taxpayers, bad 4 employees $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Other

 

  • #FF @Fullcarry @KidDynamiteBlog @Convertbond @foxjust @EconOfContempt @GregorMacdonald @edwardnh @MatthewPhillips @srussolillo $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • To Quote Thomas Jefferson, ‘I Never Actually Said That’ http://t.co/mA9MzDbb Yogi Berra, “I never said most of the things I said.” $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Big Test at Johns Hopkins (biz school) http://t.co/fbf5FeKP Scuttlebutt is that it is not doing so well w/their Int’l student focus $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • http://t.co/0fOBmunB “[Ransomware] is the new Nigerian email scam,? Mr Haley said. ?We?ll be talking about this for the next two years.? $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • The Insourcing Boom http://t.co/h67gWIA3 Can improve labor costs, morale, R&D, product quality, time to market. Wave of the future $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • My week on twitter: 42 retweets received, 3 new listings, 26 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 06, 2012
  • Dial-a-maid, get-a-slave in middle class India http://t.co/LRlkfbTg No, slavery is not dead yet & women bear the brunt of it $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Hospital Incentives Help Babies Determine Own Birth Dates http://t.co/rAKVBv4X Washington State finds a way 2reduce caesarean-sections $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • While at RealMoney, Steve Smith & I tried 2 get Lenny Dykstra 2 explain the risks of his strategies; he never responded http://t.co/ynHZJgoa Dec 05, 2012
  • Deere Gets the Wright Stuff http://t.co/88RdyGkb My friend Bill Wright is now making standing lawn mowers 4 $DE ; both firms benefit $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Warren?s Way http://t.co/cW8OQQq4 I respect Buffett a lot, but he is a hypocrite on taxes. Pay off the DTL, Sell $BRK shares, pay a div $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Online Classes Mean No Dorm, Gym or Debt http://t.co/gPttIwpJ My wife thinks there is room 4a quality college w/o the frills $$ #worthatry Dec 03, 2012
  • Not news: Burying the “Fed model” http://t.co/BTCVsigi Have 2 decompose in2 real rates & inflation expectations. Result known since 1994 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Wall Street finds a foreign detour around U.S. derivatives rules http://t.co/4Ypf0atI Do foreign biz through their London subs $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • A Free-Market Fix for the Copyright Racket http://t.co/RDPofMPk Keep copyright protections, but limit them to 28 years $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Fixed Income

?

  • Despite Risks, Investors Just Can’t Quit US Treasurys [sic] http://t.co/AefCG5rw One of the better deflation hedges out there $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Talking Macro, Fixed Income, & the Strategic Alpha Bond Fund w/Loomis Sayles? Matt Eagan http://t.co/PTWJKX22 w/ @DavidSchawel Well done $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • California moves toward open source ratings for city bonds http://t.co/hn8GCnMa Researcher makes case here: http://t.co/r04PVuWA $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Yield-Starved Investors Hoarding EM Bonds http://t.co/kvShvcx5 There is yield & their govts r running finances more orthodox way $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • We Were Stunned By The Brand New Patent That’s Been Awarded To Bill Gross http://t.co/zYuLDREM Easy ideas should not be patentable $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Women analysts dominate muniland http://t.co/dQwgDg5U Funny, but when I was a corporate bond mgr, most of my analysts were bright ladies $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • BlackRock’s new bond plan http://t.co/rdUd5zmG $BLK does a kind of structuring of covenants (buyer’s due diligence) & coinvests in volume $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Scrounging for Income http://t.co/hfFtkhm4 Okay advice, but if you can reduce need 4 income or harvest capital gains would b better $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Leveraged loans return 0.31% in November; YTD return is 8.8% http://t.co/loDwDKW9 Interesting part of article is strength of CLO bid $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • The Great Yield Gamble http://t.co/fRspStAj When risk-free rate is being used as a policy tool, it is harder 2 make rational choices $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Panasonic Swings Ruin Funds? Appetite for BBB Debt http://t.co/w36bv9nQ No notes rated <BBB+ by Japanese assessors offered in November $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • High Yield Exhaustion http://t.co/zLSy4GaC High yield feels tired between high supply, and potentially weakening demand $$ Dec 03, 2012

Rest of the World

 

  • China listings may soon flee US, expert says http://t.co/0EuxyoAC I usually don’t like when foreign listings leave; exception: China $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Sellers in Toronto, Vancouver just say no as housing markets sink http://t.co/HUTgOVnh Feels like the US in late 2006 $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Russia’s problem is not a petrified Soviet economics but corrupt politics impeding growth w/o fully blocking it $$ http://t.co/YL7QGR9j Dec 05, 2012
  • Top US Firms Are Cash-Rich Abroad, Cash-Poor at Home http://t.co/EZcwLITM Buy foreign businesses & hire clever transfer pricing accts $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Are We Watching Another North American Financial Crisis Unfold? http://t.co/BmwRzIPp Canadian taxpayers r on the hook for >C$1T in mtges $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Shangai broken dreams – changing gear? http://t.co/nWX3jIuz Argues Chinese mkt has broken support, but might have value 2 locals that dig $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • Cook Says Lives Enriched Matters More Than Money Made http://t.co/cJ7XWQkM Summary & Manufacturing Macs in US http://t.co/hyvQAdRB $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Apple?s Halo Cracked http://t.co/EHrFjZGG $AAPL ‘s valuation requires that their products remain competitive for a long time to come $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Banks book record profits off Fannie and Freddie http://t.co/Z4Ej4Zlu It’s more that much origination capacity is gone -> wide spreads $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Freeport to Buy Plains, McMoRan for $9 Billion http://t.co/avB6cIII I prefer resource extraction firms to be focused, not diversified $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Steak Price Rising as Cattle Seen 20% Higher at JBS http://t.co/58h0CsHp Combination of loose $$ policy & high feed prices from weather Dec 05, 2012
  • That fiscal cliff? $DOW Chemical says China’s a bigger worry http://t.co/H1viDTWR Not a good sign for commodity chemical producers $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Trucks — Boats – Planes – Trains http://t.co/vFirg2PB Transports are hinting at more economic weakness $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Diamonds Dug in Gusty Arctic Too Remote for Diesel Fuel http://t.co/AZiGApP4 How mining companies generate power in remote areas $$ #wow Dec 03, 2012

 

Insurers

 

  • Insurers’ Sandy Claims Estimates Show No Long-Term Damage http://t.co/HJq6Ufmk Prudent insurance underwriters & investors bounce back $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Re: Principles based stat reserving. As a life actuary, I wonder what will happen to old blocks of biz that get reinsured 2 get new acctg $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Insurers Add Reserve Power http://t.co/5X4htlOh Move 2 principles-based reserving 4 Stat acctg is a mistake; lower margin of safety $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Kind of fitting that $UBS discovered it $$ RT @graemehein: Swiss counter-intel is making Canada look good! http://t.co/394i35mW Dec 04, 2012
  • OTOH, many other schools r athletic progs glued2 educ charity $$ RT @carney: Is Harvard really just a giant hedge fund? http://t.co/9AgVniPZ Dec 07, 2012
  • I believe it has a small educational charity attached $$ RT @carney: Is Harvard really just a giant hedge fund? http://t.co/9AgVniPZ Dec 07, 2012
  • I think Andrea encourages him to get fresh air now & then $$ RT @ecchymosis2009: Who let him out of his crypt? Dec 06, 2012
  • Barofsky 4 SEC Chair RT @matthewstoller: Important statements from @neilbarofsky on how to reform the SEC. http://t.co/Tty50eQi $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • +1 Good news $$ RT @cate_long: .@matthewstoller reporting that Sallie Krawcheck seems to have been knocked out of the running as head of SEC Dec 06, 2012
  • Probably correct $$ RT @munilass: CalPERS likely 2 lose next court battle, San Bernardino bankruptcy observers predict http://t.co/QxsiiNUD Dec 05, 2012
  • You got it RT @James_Karn: @AlephBlog Don’t forget ethanol policy as a factor in high feed prices. Dec 05, 2012
  • UN = Useless Nations $$ RT @marykissel: Debacle-in-the-making: @UN takes a step toward regulating the #Internet http://t.co/tngedHds Dec 05, 2012
  • +1 true $$ RT @LorcanRK: congrats to whoever is running the @euromoney account these days. Has completely transformed a semi-dormant feed. Dec 04, 2012
  • RT @ritholtz: ENOUGH ALREADY! I propose the hashmark #CLIFFHYPE to mark conversations about the excess hype regarding the so called Fis … Dec 04, 2012
  • Incongruous, huh? Or maybe it takes a thief… $$ RT @felixsalmon: Bob Merton on a financial stability committee??? http://t.co/tnJvIOIJ Dec 03, 2012
  • Yes, & I lost some $$ on it last year RT @GaelicTorus: @AlephBlog panasonic is a value trap, imo $PC Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 For sure RT @footnoted: @joshuademasi @AlephBlog Well, nobody would accuse me of being a defender. That’s for sure. Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 RT @neilbarofsky: The more things change…Good for @benlawsky for voting no: New Rules for Life Insurers http://t.co/gVW1Zl80 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Had good ideas in 2001 now jumps shark $$ RT @LDrogen: Taleb should have quit while he was ahead, this is just nonsense http://t.co/rRPrCLLT Dec 02, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @Ryknow16 Not yet.. I expect the Fed to overdo it until it is obvious that they have to shift & then some; when shift comes it will b brutal Dec 08, 2012
  • “Thanks for writing this… this will be an important signal when the Fed finally hints at tightening,” David_Merkel http://t.co/AXbhvTBv $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • @DividendMaster Granted, but I have a rule of thumb: Removal of policy accommodation always is tougher than the Fed claims & imagines $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel You are welcome. Excellent interview & ideas. I also follow Pettis & Lacy Hunt — I’m an information hound $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein It was a good indicator, but now it is used for policy purposes in Operation Twist, making it useless as an indicator now. $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • “Challenge for Apple is perpetuating successful innovation. Difficult to continually get high ROEs?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/WfTxOVbJ $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @neilbarofsky I have a compromise proposal on MMFs that gives everyone 90% of what they want. Can I show it to you? http://t.co/uTaSQoIv Dec 07, 2012
  • @DoubleDeuce Women I was speaking of were investment analysts, not actuaries, but u r right there also; famale actuaries tend 2b junior $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @USTreasury Don’t care if this came from McConnell or Paul Krugman. The executive is *not* supposed to have any power over spending. Dumb $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @DoubleDeuce Yo, friend. Men tend to be better at the risk-return tradeoff. Women tend to be better at estimating risk. Dec 06, 2012
  • @ivorroy I won’t live longer; eating meat in moderation is good 4u, &enjoying your life prolongs life far more than avoiding a few toxins $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @Dan_Dicker Wrote a piece similar 2your “Embrace the Cliff” http://t.co/pseXvwlP last June. “Might not be so Bad” http://t.co/pYICXUOq $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long I have a compromise proposal b4 the SEC on MMFs. Talked w/senior lawyers there: http://t.co/OG4zyTQy Really tough 2do good $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long Personally, I think running the SEC is beyond everyone. The $$, the politics, can’t easily fire/hire people, etc. Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long Only be Chairman of the SEC. Only difficulties r managing the politics & incompetence. I would be willing 2 help. Dec 05, 2012
  • @rszbt Maybe we should nominate Cate Long. never reada bad article from her. Dec 05, 2012
  • @CondorOptions Ted Kauffman, Sheila Bair, Neil Barofsky, (giggle) Harry Markopolous, David Merkel (who?), Jack Ciesielski, I have more $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @nelson3748 I expect nonsense from academics. Dec 05, 2012
  • @nelson3748 How has she been a disaster for consumer banking, and local and regional banks? Many of her proposal seem reasonable. Dec 05, 2012
  • @AppFlyer Yes, I heard about that… thought it was more dumb than lying… it was lying, but I didn’t see how she would gain from it. Dec 05, 2012
  • @AppFlyer Maybe I’m out of it. How is she a liar & a cheat? Links welcome. Dec 05, 2012
  • ‘ @StockRealist Hello from another member of the penny stock truth squad. Article of mine: http://t.co/jJ79L4Ac Got $IMNG today #spitspit $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • .@drVTC It’s more what u do w/whatever time u spend w/kids, than the amount of time. I agree, tho; character is the most important factor $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • @paulvieira Typically u hear a few pops b4 the tree falls; inn the US that was mid-2007 $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Makes sense, thanks Dec 04, 2012
  • @buzzfeedben What r u looking for from someone to run your possible business vertical? I know of a lot of talent in financial writing… Dec 04, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein your latest piece deals w/correlations — how well do the betas match up? Dec 04, 2012
  • @Fechtmeyer Thanks, I get it now. But technology is creative destruction, while Wall Street’s risk control methods were just wrong. $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • @Fechtmeyer SV? WS? Dec 03, 2012
  • @LDrogen “They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty.” Ben Franklin $$ Dec 02, 2012
  • @kyles09 That is, how much profit there is in the deal 4 the originator, whether in % upfront, or in the excess interest strip Dec 02, 2012
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