Category: Public Policy

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

China

  • China Slowdown Deepens?http://t.co/sKueyT7Dhz?This isn’t a bad thing if China is giving up on forced industrialization through borrowing $$?May 17, 2014
  • Carnage on China Roads Shows Dark Side of Electric Bikes?http://t.co/HT3l0WKCzl?Going 25MPH in crowded conditions w/limited control, ouch $$?May 17, 2014
  • The Golf Boom in China?http://t.co/PcsnaFPFwy?Illegal 2build new courses, so they start as health clubs that have golf as a therapy $$ $FXI?May 17, 2014
  • Chinese Bad Loans Rise Most Since 2005 as Economy Slows?http://t.co/9x7XqlTqfh?Will the Chinese Govt allow failure or do large bailouts? $$?May 17, 2014
  • China Central Bank Calls for Faster Home Lending in Slump?http://t.co/Eo8SE2NnTi?China asks their banks 2b more aggressive in lending $$ :(?May 15, 2014
  • US Is No. 1, China Is So Yesterday?http://t.co/afQ16kIxBT?A little over the top, but correct, the US has many strengths that PPP can’t c $$?May 14, 2014
  • Xi Says China Must Adapt to ?New Normal? of Slower Growth?http://t.co/NN6gCTZzKV?Maybe, just maybe, China is serious raising consumption $$?May 12, 2014
  • Goldman to Citigroup Miss World?s Worst Selloff in China?http://t.co/KhZyggswLK?Long-term, this is a good thing. Short-term will b bumpy $$?May 14, 2014

?

Market Dynamics

  • Fooled by IRRs (Yale, Schwarzman?s Cases)?http://t.co/i8mrHR2RGD?With private equity, IRRs overstate returns received $$?May 17, 2014
  • Miller Wagers Gundlach?s Bearish Housing Position Loses?http://t.co/hAn8cFrC6F?Y Miller lost so badly during the crisis, no debt fear $$?May 17, 2014
  • Young, tech-savvy investors entrusting their portfolios 2 ‘robo advisors’ |http://t.co/yzeLARhbdy?Depends on how good underlying model is $$?May 17, 2014
  • From two secondaries, Cramer sees only one opportunity?http://t.co/URF5B1zjsy?Secondary IPOs validate levels & show real demand 4an asset $$?May 17, 2014
  • Do Alternative Investments Belong in Most Individuals’ Portfolios??http://t.co/cyZlROoxVe?No. 2 much illiquidity, opaqueness & high fees $$?May 17, 2014
  • US Stocks Decline as Russell 2000 Nears Correction?http://t.co/gG4tJF62UT?R2K down ~10% now from 3/18 high close $IWM $SPY $$ $IWN $IWO?May 15, 2014
  • Why retail investors almost always get burned?http://t.co/4lOEilO7Da?Retail $$ chases performance, and institutions aren’t much better $$?May 14, 2014
  • The Retirement Fund That People Set, Forget and Regret?http://t.co/HeIlJ84g8z?Target date funds usually ignore mkt over- & under-pricing $$?May 13, 2014
  • A New Ruling on IRA Rollovers?http://t.co/ldVnH4kpXm?Abuse of IRA rollovers leads to a tougher interpretation of regs; transfers r fine $$?May 13, 2014
  • The Problem with AAII Screens?http://t.co/2LH26F8MU5?Explaining the seemingly high returns from the Piotroski screen –> 2few stock pass $$?May 13, 2014
  • Low Yields, The Same Risks, and Rising Leverage?http://t.co/dsnoJpEg3L?listen to @DavidSchawel he is intelligent. Low yields r a warning $$?May 13, 2014
  • Hated Stocks Unlock Market as Analysts Prove No Guide to Gains?http://t.co/i03EjQPyUv?Choppy, trendless, themeless, wandering, not so bad $$?May 12, 2014
  • In Gundlach’s `No Normal’ World, U.S. Treasuries Just Can’t Lose?http://t.co/NnaCuthQTi?Long liabilities need income in a low rate world $$?May 12, 2014
  • America’s Retirement Delusion?http://t.co/jwCcJSz29Y?@Ritholtz explains y most people r deluded over retirement; the math is inexorable $$?May 12, 2014

 

Rest of the World

  • Portugal Laden With $293B Debt Exits Bailout Plan?http://t.co/CROhSi5zF2?Third-highest level of Debt/GDP in the EU; what if trouble comes $$?May 17, 2014
  • Japanese Hotshots Become Moms, Hit Dead End; Abe Weighs Foreign Maids to Help?http://t.co/ssozzyOXxe?Cheat kids of high-quality attention $$?May 17, 2014
  • NASA Asked How to Keep Space Station Going Without Russia?http://t.co/TYt9TOb9a0?A cost of a world that stops co-operating $$ #peacedividend?May 17, 2014
  • Modi-Led Bloc Wins Biggest India Mandate in Three Decades?http://t.co/szukEcJgKz?Deregulate, deregulate, & after that, deregulate $$ $SPY?May 17, 2014
  • Today’s Good News From Japan Is Terrible?http://t.co/CN61HuZB98?New taxes will slow economy, while inflation squeezes real incomes $$ $FXY?May 17, 2014
  • Global Growth Worries Climb?http://t.co/YuC9Vn1JdQ?Once deleveraging is complete, growth will resume, but govts would rather lever more $$?May 17, 2014
  • Goodbye, Crisis, as Bankers Start Lending in Portugal?http://t.co/FxGJccXsTy?What has survived is in better shape, way to go $$?May 15, 2014
  • Putin Emboldened on Instability Arc by EU Defense Divide?http://t.co/2koad3VT1A?What does the EU want 2b if it grows up? $$ $MACRO $FXE?May 15, 2014
  • Asian Junk Left Behind as Defaults Expose Cracks?http://t.co/O9b0R0oEBg?Hi debt levels, falling real estate prices, defaults -> yields up $$?May 14, 2014
  • Scots Seen Slipping Away Makes U.K. Seek Silver Bullet?http://t.co/5iSf5H3Ekg?How much UK debt will Scotland take & how large a tax rise $$?May 14, 2014
  • Former BOJ Policy Maker Sees Japan Inflation Dilemma?http://t.co/KhDKbDKxbz?Japan is a bug in search of a windshield; inflation no friend $$?May 14, 2014
  • Wives Revolt as India Election Booze Leaves Trail of Widows?http://t.co/iltIzfmUiF?Males get bribed w/alcohol 2 sell their votes. Some OD $$?May 12, 2014
  • Will The Last Businessman To Leave France Turn Out The Lights??http://t.co/0V71b3DWCJ?W/French businesses being acquired, what’s left? $$?May 13, 2014

 

Companies & Industries

  • Jill Abramson, Arthur Sulzberger, and the New York Times: What Went Wrong??http://t.co/vsOPjL4nGF?She goofed through poor salary research $$?May 17, 2014
  • New York Times Internal Report Painted Dire Digital Picture?http://t.co/qn3SEx8Zkw?$NYT figures out they r becoming less relevant $$ #doh?May 17, 2014
  • Bakken Crude Is Highly Volatile, Oil Study Shows?http://t.co/VNDvhdEeV5?Should b a way 2 extract & sell valuable ethane, propane & butane $$?May 15, 2014
  • Lehman a Gift That Keeps Giving for Paulson to King Street?http://t.co/lWxpljSkvI?A rising tide lifts all boats, flotsam and jetsam too $$?May 14, 2014
  • Yes, we’re in a tech bubble. Here’s how I know it?http://t.co/pESveWuIE3?Adam Lashinsky shares his qualitative signs for concern $$ $XLK?May 14, 2014
  • Where’s the Fertilizer? Farmers Grow Worried?http://t.co/qFNbHCidhd?Increased us of rail 2deliver oil snarls grain & fertilizer shipments $$?May 14, 2014

 

Finance

  • Congratulations to Class of 2014, Most Indebted Ever?http://t.co/tN3r70qKlO?Student debts r growing, but not the salaries of graduates $$?May 17, 2014
  • Why America’s Middle-Class Housing Crunch Is Here 2 Stay?http://t.co/gjGhVcvqd7?Affordability has fallen in almost every major metro area $$?May 17, 2014
  • Big Banks Said to Improve Loan Servicing Under Mortgage Accord?http://t.co/WFvD7yhP1u?Interesting 2c some better debtor treatment emerge $$?May 15, 2014

?

US Politics & Policy

  • Detroit Creditors Seek to Defend Pension Debt in Lawsuit?http://t.co/PZHRjsDrGf?Detroit attempts 2cheat pensioners & FGIC, & not sell art $$?May 17, 2014
  • More Detroits Are on the Way?http://t.co/f53SjxDxLh?Even as pension bombs tick, cities and states still borrow far beyond their means. $$?May 17, 2014
  • Huszar: Geithner Drove Me From NY Fed?http://t.co/i8R1zqenvY?Nuanced thought on Geithner’s strengths &weaknesses; my thoughts in comments $$?May 15, 2014
  • FCC Net-Neutrality Plan Sparks Response Before Release?http://t.co/nGXZjaSXs5?Paid deals, few paid deals, or no favoritism of web traffic $$?May 15, 2014
  • Income Tax Yo-Yo Hits US States?http://t.co/ipMtG8FyRF?Budgets should b set assuming zero taxes from capital gains and housing sales $$ TLT?May 15, 2014
  • How Hoenig, Norton Wield Influence on FDIC Board?http://t.co/ZIbcn5X46X?They hold intelligent positions & try 2 get most of them accepted $$?May 14, 2014
  • Fannie, Freddie Regulator Signals Broad Shift in Housing Policy?http://t.co/GS4ZNhVxqL?& http://t.co/fsVs5Ev2Ta A bad idea that won’t die $$?May 13, 2014
  • Book Review: ‘Stress Test’ by Timothy Geithner?http://t.co/zv8uHW9ilQ?Didn’t foresee mortgage crisis coming or its severity $$ $TLT $IEF?May 12, 2014
  • Rahm Emanuel Faces New Test With Chicago Pension Crisis?http://t.co/29uvyvAs5z?Inexorable pension math forces hard decisions & fights $$?May 12, 2014

 

US Economy

  • Why It’s So Hard to Get a Job?http://t.co/yZkgxZ9gaZ?@vpostrel provides some analysis on the skills mismatch. Employers would rather wait $$?May 15, 2014
  • Producer price gain offers cautionary note on inflation?http://t.co/9QVZ9Y8Ly3?Remember, inflation expectations r “well contained” $$ $TLT?May 15, 2014
  • US Consumer Prices Rise at Strongest Rate in Nearly a Year?http://t.co/TrPrAirLiE?Remember, inflation expectations are “well contained” $$?May 15, 2014
  • Income Inequality Is Higher In Democratic Districts Than Republican Ones?http://t.co/6T7SOBZlHU?Wealthier districts tend 2b more unequal $$?May 13, 2014
  • America on the Move Becomes Stay-Home Nation for Young?http://t.co/QEwbemllyW?Millennials move < , delay HH formation, buying homes, jobs $$?May 12, 2014

 

Other

  • Meet the Italian Who Beat Google to Web Search — and Gave It Away??http://t.co/A8ZuICxjwe?Meet man who inspired Larry Page &Google $$ $GOOG?May 17, 2014
  • The Problem for Sports Parents: Overspending?http://t.co/uhyMC0Tr0D?Note to parents: Sunk costs are sunk. Think it through b4 u spend $$?May 14, 2014
  • Inside Google’s Driverless Car: The Unused Kill Button?http://t.co/3AqBaTvXug?What it’s like to ride in one of the driverless cars $$ $GOOG?May 14, 2014

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: Bring Back the Girls?Quietly?http://t.co/dulFTAnUfp?In foreign conflicts, let the rest of the world grow up & handle it themselves $$?May 17, 2014
  • Wrong:Mortgages Should Be Easier to Get?http://t.co/OefAVCc1s7?Didn’t learn from the last crisis; 2 much mtge debt makes housing unstable $$?May 15, 2014
  • Wrong: Yes, the World Needs More MBAs. Here?s Why?http://t.co/MFHnBn7cc7?We would get more improvement by fixing elementary schools $$ $TLT?May 14, 2014

 

?Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • RT @DavidSchawel: “Average yields on CCC & below debt worldwide fell to 8.58% this week, the same investors were getting 3 years ago on BB ??May 17, 2014
  • RT @matt_levine: I know it’s journalism and stuff, but I’m really glad my job isn’t doxxing smart helpful anonymous working finance people ??May 15, 2014
  • “A better article would provide enough analysis 2say what the ETFs were doing w/the derivatives.” ? David_Merkel?http://t.co/qy0PdPz5Ap?$$?May 14, 2014
  • @felixsalmon I really doubt this, as does Charlie Munger.?May 13, 2014

?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Market Dynamics

?

  • Yellen Comments Boost Demand for Treasury Bonds?http://t.co/2lzFhL97br?Carry trade rescued, grows larger 4a later day of reckoning $$ $TLT?May 10, 2014
  • One of the Best Retirement Deals 9 of 10 People Ignore?http://t.co/oYw4xRjEdc?Contribute 2a Roth 401(k) & save big on future taxes $$ $TROW?May 10, 2014
  • NYSE to Curtail Order Types Amid Debate Over Their Fairness?http://t.co/JOlTvX7sie?Will b interesting 2c what they curtail $$ Affects my biz?May 10, 2014
  • What Baby Boomers? Retirement Means For the US Economy?http://t.co/GuECsqqWHA?Cheer up, the US is in better shape than rest of the world $$?May 10, 2014
  • I’m worried about a crisis bigger than 2008: Faber?http://t.co/JwpcvxA53o?”For the next six months, maybe cash is the most attractive.” $$?May 10, 2014
  • When Stocks and Bonds Disagree?http://t.co/BGbY9Y0C2L?@reformedbroker points out anomaly. Bond mkt bigger than stock mkt, should b right $$?May 07, 2014
  • research puzzle pix by tom brakke?http://t.co/xtPUCU7PDj?Bloat, which I would measure by number of days to trade away the portfolio $$ $SPY?May 07, 2014
  • Ten Surefire Trading Rules To Make You Rich?http://t.co/fHqVJkaVuj?@reformedbroker tongue-in-cheek way of telling you what not to do $$ $SPY?May 06, 2014
  • Early Tap of 401(k) Replaces Homes as American Piggy Bank?http://t.co/x16yXooOSx?If you don’t have an “out” door 4 $$, less will go “in”?May 06, 2014
  • The bond market is giving the stock market angst?http://t.co/rfuGqyaPTK?2 many long bond shorts, economic weakness, low govt-measured inf $$?May 06, 2014
  • Free Life-Insurance Offer Scrutinized?http://t.co/EZz4zbJsXS?Nothing is free; this will come out of the life insurer dumb enough 2sell it $$?May 06, 2014
  • Bond Returns Post Global Records as Warnings Go Unheeded?http://t.co/t0aXCtsu8T?Long bond buyers need to fund long liabilities & momentum $$?May 06, 2014
  • Borrowing Cash to Buy Complex Assets Is In Vogue Again?http://t.co/8urmZjge1i?Borrowed $$ is mostly being used 2buy AAA CLOs; 10x lev ~ 8%yd?May 06, 2014
  • Can?t Find Enough 30-Year Treasuries to Buy? Here?s Why?http://t.co/tmFjBQ4emS?Fed buying, also pensions, life insurers & speculators $$?May 05, 2014

?

Banks

 

  • Covered Bond Talks Intensify as Bank Liquidity Rules in Play?http://t.co/aM7LuzeXIK?Denmark needs bank capital concessions 4covered bonds $$?May 10, 2014
  • Bitcoin Breakthroughs Studied by Banks the Currency Is Out to Replace?http://t.co/Frls6s04am?May not be a currency, but a payment system $$?May 10, 2014
  • JPMorgan Joins Wells Fargo in Rolling Out Jumbo Offerings?http://t.co/9mJFfYArs2?High end of residential housing market is hot $$ $JPM $WFC?May 10, 2014
  • Fed 2 Bank Giants: Don’t Get Bigger Via Mergers?http://t.co/fjw4dDAAIZ?Have >10% of total financial system liabs can’t merge $$ $BAC $C $JPM?May 10, 2014
  • The Real Reason Big Banks Stay Big?http://t.co/GRvSHhDAUx?The larger the bank, the larger the management pay packets $$ $C $BAC $WFC $JPM?May 06, 2014

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Russian Aggression Prompts Finnish-Swedish Military Pact?http://t.co/K9amWYRP0F?It’s not an expansion of NATO yet, but reaction 2 Russia $$?May 10, 2014
  • China Property Slump Adds Danger to Local Finances?http://t.co/WXdGmStbU5?Local govts rely on selling property 4 revenue; now what to do? $$?May 10, 2014
  • Ukraine’s Arms Industry Is Both Prize and Problem for Putin?http://t.co/1RNJMzBvQ6?Has many arms joint ventures w/ Ukraine $$ #irony $MACRO?May 10, 2014
  • Panama Can School US on Immigration?http://t.co/2UYhldzlPJ?”Panama is the kind of country the US once was: quick to embrace workers.” $$?May 10, 2014
  • Draghi?s Euro Angst Rising as Rally to $1.40 Pummels?http://t.co/nLzHP74nYE?What will he do? Sell Euros & buy Dollars? Has 2 many $$ now.?May 10, 2014
  • Accident Leads to Scrutiny of Oil Sand Production?http://t.co/DHVJukJNVR?Little damage, but made regulators think of other bad scenarios $$?May 06, 2014
  • British Coins Pass Test in 800-Year-Old Ritual?http://t.co/GKfA1KhXKO?Trial of the Pyx, 1 of Britain?s oldest&strangest legal procedures $$?May 06, 2014

 

Global Economy

 

  • US Ready to Join 6-Nation Tax Alliance?http://t.co/PVRpUJ1ShZ?Members Will Share Information 2Fight Multinational Corporate Tax Avoidance $$?May 10, 2014
  • Ron Wyden: We Must Stop Driving Businesses Out of the Country?http://t.co/ypwwGbrWlM?Cutting corporate taxes to 24% would be a start $$ $SPY?May 10, 2014
  • Corporate Tax Planners Vexed by New International Tax Guidelines?http://t.co/LcCyHgfDc7?If elites agree, can limit tax leakages 2 havens $$?May 10, 2014
  • Decoding Dollar Turns Into Wall Street?s Parlor Game?http://t.co/PeI1wrlq4v?Bad speculation on strengthening $$ fails, trade gets reversed?May 10, 2014
  • World Economy Stabilizes in Great Moderation 2.0?http://t.co/yCIRqXpF9h?Really seems 2 early 2b trotting out an idea like this $$ $SPY $TLT?May 10, 2014
  • How Russia Inc. Moves Billions Offshore & a Handful of Tax Havens May Hold Key to Sanctions?http://t.co/ylIL6w66EF?Expropriation risk $$?May 05, 2014
  • Tax Break ?Blarney?: U.S. Companies Beat the System With Irish Addresses?http://t.co/Ia2cM1brCS?Maybe a “Value Added Tax” could fix this $$?May 05, 2014

 

Companies & Industries

?

  • Fat-Destroying Machine Doubted by Stock Traders?http://t.co/2Klv4c4ozG?$ELOS uses ultrasound 2 heat up & destroy fat cells. Does it work? $$?May 10, 2014
  • Son Makes $58B on Alibaba With Buffett-Type Return?http://t.co/uywgbnCaxg?Masayoshi Son had insight into Alibaba when invested $20M $$?May 10, 2014
  • US Shale Boom Keeps Global Oil Prices From Soaring?http://t.co/ipDZdMke1o?Oil Majors have 2 invest more 2 get less http://t.co/9u5lRnolmh $$?May 10, 2014
  • Lenovo Targets Mobile as Tech Empire Grows on Castoff Businesses?http://t.co/sXSytLozjV?Squeezing good $$ out of mature tech businesses?May 10, 2014
  • Pitney Bowes changing stripes: Cramer?http://t.co/QzDuxGLZjT?Talks about their partnership w/ $EBAY to seamlessly estimate shipping $$ $PBI?May 10, 2014
  • 5 quality stocks that are missing out on the bull run?http://t.co/8GTmjMt46J?Quality often misses out when credit spreads r tight $$ 2005-7??May 10, 2014
  • Alibaba Partners Keep Control After Shunning Hong Kong for US?http://t.co/4XvRaqoUM5?A partnership will govern, limiting takeover efforts $$?May 10, 2014
  • Wal-Mart Notches Web Win Against Rival Amazon?http://t.co/3f9chtgyME?Still $AMZN is 6x larger than $WMT in online sales, long way to go $$?May 06, 2014
  • IBM’s Watson supercomputer can help settle your debates?http://t.co/cFmXZXmEV6?Ask Watson a question, will give top 3 args for & against $$?May 06, 2014
  • Symantec Develops New Attack on Cyberhacking?http://t.co/xbeAQgcnab?Declaring Antivirus Dead, Firm Turns2Minimizing Damage From Breaches $$?May 06, 2014
  • Buffett Phase Two Means Seeking Deals More Enduring Than Stocks?http://t.co/FyERjB7YO5?Trying to build the best long-term conglomerate $$?May 05, 2014

?

US Politics & Policies

 

  • Benghazi Isn’t Iran-Contra?http://t.co/otSpoLR38P?But the comparison reflects poorly on the Obama administration $$?May 10, 2014
  • SEC Finds Illegal or Bogus Fees Majority of Buyout Firms?http://t.co/TwU954gwzm?Who pays what expenses? How r fees & returns calculated? $$?May 10, 2014
  • What Timothy Geithner Really Thinks?http://t.co/CxMmqJF18b?Just don’t blame him, didn’t want the job & wanted 2 leave it sooner, Really? $$?May 10, 2014
  • Railroad: Federal order won’t affect oil shipments?http://t.co/9nFXjxRTcP?BNSF carries most of the oil coming from Bakken FD: + $BRK.B $$?May 10, 2014
  • Why Nonbank SIFI Designations Put the Cart Before the Horse?http://t.co/oRQCv7r5jf?FSOC & Fed don’t get systemic risk & designating SIFIs $$?May 10, 2014
  • Massachusetts Scraps Its Health Insurance Exchange?http://t.co/nVB3C17iVg?Fascinating how many states had to scrap their healthcare sites $$?May 06, 2014
  • Why Weather Could Determine Who Wins a Race To Measure Inflation?http://t.co/2PTidHexu6?Billion Prices Project inflation measure 1%>CPI $$?May 06, 2014
  • The End of the Permissionless Web?http://t.co/MWyAraGxUT?Regulators want 2 become the gatekeepers for Internet innovation. It ain’t broke $$?May 06, 2014
  • Toilet Bowl Kills Fan in Violence at World Cup Host Brazil?http://t.co/Qx0HSiv0dB?Soccer hooliganism hits a new low, death by toilet $$ $EWZ?May 05, 2014

 

 

Other

 

  • Woman With Printer Shows the Digital Ease of Bogus Cash?http://t.co/kN4Ua9zZl0?Fascinating 2c how easy it is to convert $5s into $100s $$?May 10, 2014
  • Career Advice for Managers: Learn to Execute Strategy?http://t.co/jI85DW4Itj?Strategy should come b4 reaction to the problems of the day $$?May 10, 2014
  • Growing Number of Hispanics in US Leave Catholic Church?http://t.co/0jXt2caYjl?Most of those leaving go evangelical protestant $$ #readbible?May 10, 2014
  • Economics students call for shakeup of the way their subject is taught?http://t.co/vv8OL1xq9m?Right diagnosis, wrong cure, need Austrian $$?May 07, 2014
  • Rethink The Word ‘Cancer,’ Panel Says?http://t.co/jiuSNLF4JM?Cancer comes in many different forms; with some, early treatment is needed $$?May 06, 2014
  • Virtual reality preps 4 impact in healthcare, manufacturing, finance?http://t.co/taBVd2dFy1?Retirement planning, worker safety, training $$?May 06, 2014
  • MLB: The Year That No One Got Caught Stealing?http://t.co/Pn3itlbi36?Catchers now spend more time practicing hitting than throwing $$ $SPY?May 06, 2014
  • Elite Colleges Don’t Buy Happiness for Graduates?http://t.co/H2S5hTml6g?Happiness stems more from personal attitudes than college type $$?May 06, 2014

 

US Economy

 

  • Cancer Doctors Join Insurers in US Drug-Cost Revolt?http://t.co/OrqflkeN32?Drug costs reflect price 4 successes but paying 4 failures $$?May 10, 2014
  • Later Easter Drives Retail Sales in April?http://t.co/VAuXPhVGR7?Never thought Easter was that big of an economic factor $$?May 10, 2014
  • Record Meat Costs Mean Pricey Barbecues?http://t.co/tNr7vcb11K?Herds r smaller, as ranchers shake off past water & feed problems $$ $TSN?May 10, 2014

?

Wrong

?

  • Wrong: Happy Hedge Fund Managers Earn Money for Nothing?http://t.co/pOSYH3SSXO?Wrong benchmark S&P 500 4 hedgie comparison s/b t-bills $$?May 10, 2014
  • Wrong: Blackstone?s Schwarzman Says Individuals Need More Alternatives?http://t.co/Mnp0cjlXZ5?He’s just trolling 4 dumb $$ folks. Ignore him?May 10, 2014

?

?

Comments, Replies & Retweets

?

  • If the treatment is cheap enough, & has no harmful side-effects, investors will benefit from fat returns ;)?http://t.co/ROAQUU6Rpu?$$ $ELOS?May 07, 2014
  • “He might be comparing IRRs on PE to total returns on stocks. Trouble with that one is that capital?” ? D. Merkel?http://t.co/MhXU9vLCvG?$$?May 07, 2014

?

Book Review: GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History

Book Review: GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History

Posted on by David Merkel

81euvVMFKxL._SL1500_ This is a short book. It should be judged by short book rules.

1) The book is aimed at giving a general understanding to readers not familiar with all of the assumptions that go into the calculation of GDP.

2) The book uses no math to explain what is a highly mathematical topic, and yet gets the main points across.

3) The book explains the controversies surrounding GDP in a simple way that most people could understand, and does not make you head spin with economic gibberish.

4) ?The book explains many of the important strengths and weaknesses of the GDP calculation. ?Maybe that should read — what GDP can measure, and what it does not measure.

5) It explains in simple terms the difference between “real” (inflation-adjusted), and “nominal” (unadjusted) GDP. ?It could have spent more time on that topic, I think, because the issues around price indexes (including the implicit price deflator, which was not mentioned) are significant.

6) The book motivates the history of how GDP calculations come to be, morphing from a way to figure out taxation capacity in wartime, to a figure that guides the economic policies of bureaucrats that tinker with something bigger than themselves, and they do not understand it (but won’t admit it).

7) The book drives home the idea that much helpful human action is *not* captured in GDP, and likely *can’t* be captured in GDP. ?Also it shows how many harmful actions (i.e. pollution, etc.) are not captured in GDP.

Now some will criticize some omissions of this book, and minor inaccuracies, but I am not going to beat on those, because this is a short book, and not meant to be deep for experts to contemplate. ?At 140 small pages, it packs a lot in!

After all, there is an alternative. ?You could go an buy an intermediate macroeconomics textbook used by many universities. ?It will be in many ways more technically precise. ?There will be a lot more math, and esoteric discussions. ?It will lose average people, who will say “I’m glad I am not an economist.”

This book will not provoke that response. ?It is meant for average people, not experts, who need to get a basic grip on what GDP means and does not mean.

My Main Misgiving

If I were writing this book, I would recast this book into the need to estimate a balance sheet of the US, complete with liabilities ?and intangible assets. ?After all, the income statement describes the change in balance sheets across two periods. ?Imperfectly, that could help us deal with intangibles that don’t get counted (E.g. all of the book reviews that get written for free, but give people a better idea of what to buy). ?Even though the estimates will remain very imperfect, and maybe worse if we try this with intangibles, it might give us a sense of how much good we do as a society. ?It would also make the financial sector net out for the most part, the value of which is difficult to measure.

Summary

If you want a basic book that teaches you in a non-technical way how and why one of our most basic economic statistics is calculated, this book will give you that. ?And if you want that, you can buy it here:?GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History.

Full disclosure: The PR people asked me if I wanted a copy of the ?book, and I said “yes” and they sent it.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

US Politics & Policy

  • The Potential Bubble the Federal Reserve Cares Most About http://t.co/tp1Ug7YcaR?Worrying about a bubble in the bond mkt $$?May 03, 2014
  • The Weekend Interview: The Investors at War With Political Power?http://t.co/MuEvV0DQcC?Courts protect our liberties from bureaucracies $$?May 03, 2014
  • Detroit Homeowners Gun Down Burglars as Police Wait for Cars?http://t.co/Dkg7YEct4g?This is the future of many US cities w/tight budgets $$?May 03, 2014
  • Railway exec: Keystone debate not about rail versus pipes?http://t.co/bVKjkcvnq0?Aiming 4 safer tank cars & separating out natgas liquids $$?May 02, 2014
  • Xerox CIO Fixing Nevada Health Exchange, as Tough Decisions Loom?http://t.co/brbP5LD0Ru?Bad job by $XRX but at least they trying 2 fix it $$?May 02, 2014
  • For Now, Justice Ginsburg’s ‘Pathmarking’ Doesn’t Include Retirement?http://t.co/xduXEt5OUV?Interesting piece on liberal SCOTUS leader $$?May 02, 2014
  • The Supreme Court’s EPA Ruling Dims Lights on Coal Power Plants?http://t.co/eAIlagHyqe?This will eventually be reversed when shale fails $$?May 02, 2014
  • The Coming Two-Tier Health System?http://t.co/xpIMjPnvhc?The longer PPACA goes on the more people will c benefits limited & costs rise $$?May 02, 2014
  • California City of Torrance Grapples With Toyota Relocation to Texas?http://t.co/OljCzROHlq?Despite denials this happened b/c hi CA taxes $$?May 01, 2014
  • The Missing Benghazi Email?http://t.co/amNnz6KAWT?New evidence that Ben Rhodes told Susan Rice and Hillary Clinton to blame the video $$?May 01, 2014
  • Shifting Demographics Tilt Presidential Races in US Burbs $$?http://t.co/Ut6WAHwu91?Demographic effect politics will shift when OASDI chokes?May 01, 2014
  • Half of people living in Illinois and Connecticut want to get out?http://t.co/ewsu2wu8HT?Maryland #3 b/c of high taxes $$ $SPY $TLT?May 01, 2014
  • Yellen Concerned Fed Model Fails to Predict Price Moves?http://t.co/P1NXGaHY6w?Been true 4 a long time; Neoclassical Macroeconomics fails $$?May 01, 2014
  • U.S. on Highway to Flunking Out?http://t.co/yvRybDP3Bp?@Ritholtz Maybe US gasoline taxes could b dedicated to infrastructure & fix this $$?May 01, 2014
  • Property-Tax Collections Rising at Fastest Pace Since US Crash?http://t.co/GoC12zZltE?My, but that was a short respite from hi prop taxes $$?May 01, 2014
  • Student-Debt Forgiveness Plans Skyrocket, Raising Fears Over Higher Tuition?http://t.co/ZaHVqZG6ft?Forgiveness programs abused 2milk Govt $$?May 01, 2014
  • Lawyers Sue Stock Market for Being Rigged?http://t.co/ntCxkptCw8?@matt_levine tells us about a plaintiff suing every broker & exchange $$?Apr 30, 2014
  • Will the Fed s Capital Rules Interfere with Monetary Policy??http://t.co/UpWnLNwIff?Leverage affects banks short-run-> margins adjust up $$?Apr 30, 2014
  • The Economic and Environmental Costs of Wasted Food?http://t.co/3YqsPbZzJv?Difficult to avoid; need for inventories, transport costs high $$?Apr 23, 2014

?

Financials

  • Treasuries Irresistible to America?s Banks Awash in Cash?http://t.co/wHjk3cRPn2?Clip a small interest margin, take little risk $$?May 03, 2014
  • Big US Banks Make Swaps a Foreign Affair?http://t.co/5DD7en8pBG 5 banks intermediate 95% of derivatives $$?May 03, 2014
  • Fidelity Reaps Rewards as Banks Lose Bond Muscle?http://t.co/mSTelgwh0d?If the sell side does not provide liquidity, the buy side will $$?May 03, 2014
  • Bank of America Lost $2.7B in a Maze of Accounting?http://t.co/K05aIQBhQE?Acctg gets screwy when you mix fair value & book value elements $$?May 02, 2014
  • Traders Join Exodus as Forex Probes Add Pressure on Costs?http://t.co/Aqlsb6vElW?Difficult to dominate such a big mkt, but maybe they did $$?May 02, 2014
  • Warren Buffett Does Not Understand the J.P. Morgan Derivatives Positions?http://t.co/poMfOnAhOS?He acts to protect Berkshire vs bad debts $$?May 02, 2014
  • Fed Citing Wall Street Lapses Leads Drive on Bonds as Pay?http://t.co/Ad2DOnjZYl?Light version of the old “double liability” regime $$ $XLF?May 02, 2014
  • Stress Tests Forecast $190B in Losses at $FNMA, $FMCC in Severe Downturn?http://t.co/UA9S5Jj13a?also this article http://t.co/Wh2QlFzqZh $$?May 02, 2014
  • Traders Denied M&A Payday as Firms Use Cash?http://t.co/hSw2BGNjWh?Global firms buy assets in native currency, thus don’t need FX traders $$?May 01, 2014
  • Fixed-income houses double down?http://t.co/1rm6QHbjgc?Less yield to fight over makes the fight all the tougher $$ $TLT?May 01, 2014
  • Easier Homeowner Credit Compelling $WFC?http://t.co/AzcGHepiJJ?Cut min credit score 4borrowers of $FNMA & $FMCC loans 660->620 $$ FD: + $WFC?May 01, 2014
  • Wall Street Bond Dealers Whipsawed on Bearish Treasuries Bet?http://t.co/S6X2QhUgRV?Caught leaning the wrong way as US economy weakens $$?Apr 30, 2014

?

China

  • Chinese Bad-Loan Ratio Rises ?Significantly,? Huarong Says?http://t.co/Eu5AAeyGp5?Costs of prior malinvestment weigh on China $$?May 03, 2014
  • Xi?s Squeeze Leaves China?s Heartland Missing Boom?http://t.co/Bt0L96guqH?Efforts to constrain bad bank loans slows Chinese economy $$ $FXI?May 03, 2014
  • Wealthy Chinese replace Russians as top apartment buyers?http://t.co/zEWVg7dOOC?Better to buy in NYC than Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore? $$?May 02, 2014
  • How Women Lost as Out China’s Property Market Boomed?http://t.co/MXkG2udq0t?China lacks law protecting married women’s property interests $$?May 02, 2014
  • Green Batteries? Graphite Adds to China Pollution?http://t.co/rxZufzpj9H?Buy a $TSLA or a $HMC Prius, send polluted rain to China $$ $SPY?May 01, 2014

 

Rest of the World

  • Poland?s Tusk Proposes Energy Union 2 Break Russian Hold on Gas?http://t.co/CzDr3evIhe?Wishful thinking as infrastructure 2 deliver lacks $$?May 03, 2014
  • More Italian Women Are Choosing to Have No Children?http://t.co/fSghk0oKwP?A nation that does not have children is irrelevant $$?May 03, 2014
  • Portugal Grabs Cheap Bond Deal With Eye on Bailout Exit?http://t.co/9gEDWEIuYh?Debt problems r not resolved, but mkts feel better 4 now $$?May 03, 2014
  • German Ship Captain Swamped in Debt Underscores Bank Risk?http://t.co/eP7Xhvj67X?Current EU economic policies hide bad debt risks $$?May 03, 2014
  • GoldenTree Goes Bold in Buying Russian Corporate Bonds?http://t.co/d0nvYJ7Ah2??Russia, it?s a strong credit in a difficult environment,? $$?May 03, 2014
  • One Missing Jet, One Sunken Ferry, Two Responses?http://t.co/I1ZgkwQyLo?@WilliamPesek compares Malaysia & S. Korea & responses 2 disaster $$?May 02, 2014
  • Turkey’s Erdogan: 1 of the World’s Most Determined Internet Censors?http://t.co/12ALhoW2i3?#twitterisblockedinTurkey $$ #internetchangesall?May 02, 2014
  • German Businesses Urge Halt on Sanctions Against Russia?http://t.co/bJho1CvvIP?Is business so global that major wars can’t be fought? $$?May 02, 2014
  • How Canada?s Flirtation w/a China Oil Market Soured?http://t.co/h5HPS7pnM8?Why Canada will NEVER ship crude to China via a Pacific port $$?May 02, 2014
  • Georgia Pushes for Fast Path 2 NATO on Russian Threat?http://t.co/bYY8LK1pla?Is Georgia worth annoying Russia? Avoid entangling alliances $$?May 02, 2014
  • US sanctions raise concerns for foreign investors?http://t.co/XWbwvPXyir?Or, maybe not: http://t.co/rhsqIHCafl $$?May 02, 2014
  • Google Warning on Russia Prescient as Putin Squeezes Web?http://t.co/pVedAtqcAx?Social Media has its downsides if Govt uses it against u $$?May 02, 2014
  • Liquidity Trap Hitting AAA Bonds Has ATP CEO Sounding Alarm?http://t.co/bhWlb1EjxQ?Curbing speculation has led 2 decreased bond liquidity $$?May 02, 2014
  • Israelis Without ABCs Unready2Power Startup Nation?s Economy?http://t.co/q2V1IwGrIZ?He that doesn’t teach his son a trade teaches him2rob $$?May 01, 2014
  • Tokyo Inflation Quickens to Fastest Since 1992?http://t.co/khjhBvHgWT?Worth watching, as inflation is not the friend of Japan ultimately $$?May 01, 2014

 

US Economy?

  • Colleges, Employers Rethink Internship Policies?http://t.co/RMievOB82U?Unpaid internships often don’t lead to jobs, just use your time $$?May 03, 2014
  • Apprenticeships Help Close the Skills Gap. So Why Are They in Decline??http://t.co/pCnZCgXqAr?If they weren’t tied 2 labor unions… $$?May 03, 2014
  • Calculated Risk: Ranking Economic Data?http://t.co/l4X9wcjrEw) Bill McBride gives his opinions on what economic data is most important $$?May 03, 2014
  • Union Blasts Staples-Run Postal Outlets?http://t.co/qmmc4iXhIS?Of course, they don’t want the competition $$?May 03, 2014

?

Energy

  • Energy Future Junior Creditors Test Bid for Fast Bankruptcy Deal?http://t.co/ZFgWCteuh0?A warning to those doing big LBO deals in a boom $$?May 03, 2014
  • Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill?http://t.co/qG9WwN63V0?Fascinating look many junk-rated E&P companies paying 5.4% $$?May 02, 2014
  • Valero to Suncor Shun Overseas Imports in Eastern Canada?http://t.co/dco5QQdox4?Oil imports falling in Eastern N.America, Brent spd eases $$?May 02, 2014
  • Berkshire Hathaway Energy Buys AltaLink Power-Transmission Company?http://t.co/K95RDCbYM8?Buffett wants long-lived infrastructure assets $$?May 02, 2014
  • Shale Revolution Lures Trading Houses 2US Energy Assets?http://t.co/6WTGDZNLzl?If u can understand physical flows, there?s a value chain $$?May 01, 2014
  • Drones Are Becoming Energy?s New Roustabouts?http://t.co/e2OBYmeV48?Can cover more area and c things that a person could not c & record $$?May 01, 2014
  • Challenges Lie Ahead for North American Oil Production?http://t.co/m7vvemlw6m?We’re running out of cheap crude oil $$?Apr 22, 2014


Market Impact

  • Defensive Value ETF Races to New Highs?http://t.co/KOKo14nkDk?This isn’t defense; many people throw $$ at stocks that offer dividends?May 03, 2014
  • Chile CEF?s Premium a Case of Yield Lover?s Mirage?http://t.co/blhZjCHLzN?Be wary: not all distributions indicate recurring yield $$?May 03, 2014
  • Hedge Funds Short Small Caps Most Since ?04?http://t.co/2hLYbzM521?Dangerous trade, b/c mkt can b insane longer than u remain solvent $$?May 03, 2014
  • Howard Marks’ Brilliant Observation On What It Takes To Be A Great Investor?http://t.co/yeJnpION8s?Be different, & right often enough $$?May 02, 2014
  • Junk Loans Pulled as Buyers Say No After Fed Voices Worry?http://t.co/lCDRdfFvV6?Junk-loan MFs had their 1st outflow in week ended 4/16 $$?May 02, 2014
  • Why This Bull Market Feels Familiar?http://t.co/8JXl7JGwMe?Low earnings in tech IPOs, momentum & loose monetary policy $$ $SPY?May 01, 2014
  • Why Investors Love Hedge Funds?http://t.co/uFjN76R9KT?@Ritholtz teaches us about high fees, & decrasing effectiveness as they grow large $$?Apr 30, 2014

?

Companies

  • Ballmer Becomes Largest Individual Microsoft Shareholder?http://t.co/DvWSRZAb1Z?Bill Gates always had an exit strategy from $MSFT $$?May 03, 2014
  • Apple Sells $12B of Bonds to Keep Cash Overseas?http://t.co/FiSK8eJS5C?Avoiding the tax hit is more important leverage across borders $$?May 03, 2014
  • Berkshire Meeting, Now ?Woodstock for Capitalists,? Had Humble Start?http://t.co/wbYCcKc8yr?Nobody goes there anymore; it’s too crowded $$?May 02, 2014
  • Buffett Wants Tough Questions? How About These??http://t.co/m36vBV6VIe?Ask him about the Harney Investment Trust, his shadowy creation $$?May 02, 2014
  • Verizon Loses Cellphone Customers for First Time?http://t.co/6DbXOm993W?Interesting, wonder if it is a trend… $$ $VZ?May 01, 2014
  • IBM End to Buyback Splurge Pressures CEO to Boost Revenue?http://t.co/D657Dc27mX?Buybacks can only do so much; organic growth needed $$ $IBM?May 01, 2014
  • FM Global CFO: Know Your Supply Chain?http://t.co/dBTc6MYXXY?Real disasters happen when multiple things go wrong at the same time $$ $SPY?May 01, 2014
  • ‘I Think Google’s Pretty Dangerous and Thuggish. I?ve Always Said That.’?http://t.co/jYZBaewNjZ?Trying 2 defend yourself; not saying much $$?Apr 28, 2014

 

Personal Finance

  • Does Anyone Play It Straight in Markets??http://t.co/MRZY1ro2as?@ritholtz warns u that many in the mkts r trying to separate u & your $$?May 03, 2014
  • Feeling Cool About A Hot Personal Finance Book?http://t.co/hwFULepE8v?When someone tries to sell u insurance 4 a savings need, go away $$?May 03, 2014
  • 4 Alternatives to Reverse Mortgages?http://t.co/6Wmd2kYQmz?Refinance, Home Equity Loan, Sell the Home (maybe to your kids) $$ #sell?May 02, 2014
  • Work and Live, Retire and Die @Ritholtz?http://t.co/t1YWHoG6NO?People plan to retire later than they actually do & life interferes $$ $SPY?May 02, 2014
  • How to Choose the Right Mutual Fund?http://t.co/4kvyh8rZZK?Omits active share, good mutual funds typically look un-indexlike $$?May 01, 2014
  • If You’re Not Saving, You’re Losing Out?http://t.co/QtG87rNHPF?It’s not the money u make, it’s the money u keep that counts $$ $SPY $TLT?May 01, 2014

 

Other

  • The Questionable Link Between Saturated Fat and Heart Disease?http://t.co/32pwYj4Z6i?There has never been more disagreement over food $$?May 03, 2014
  • Will That Golfer Choke? New Field of Mental Analytics Tees Up Answer?http://t.co/B8dxIYL1Jf?Can analytics make u think better in sports $$?May 03, 2014
  • Cyber security: business is in the front line?http://t.co/RXkfEDaPu0?This isn’t a soft cost anymore; the need to secure IT is vital $$?May 03, 2014
  • Remember Life Before Antibiotics? No? Wait, It’ll Come to You?http://t.co/g9uQajBJJL?Antibiotic resistance grows, obsoleting some drugs $$?May 02, 2014
  • How the ‘Jesus’ Wife’ Hoax Fell Apart?http://t.co/Kdswi39oZr?Hoaxes & apochrypha have circulated since the Apostles. They always crumble $$?May 02, 2014
  • Why Some MBAs Are Reading Plato?http://t.co/ltj9Y8QYyV?Schools Try Philosophy to Get B-School Students Thinking Beyond the Bottom Line $$?May 01, 2014
  • Does Baseball Have to Be So Slow??http://t.co/8PRcoei9Ua?Dawdling by batters & pitchers, & an increase in strikeouts makes games drag $$?May 01, 2014
  • The world’s smallest magazine cover is 2,000 times smaller than a grain of salt?http://t.co/o4H7mfHCDE?Nanotech: we do it because we can $$?May 01, 2014
  • Why Militaries Mess Up So Often?http://t.co/39NKx6YPUn?Officers trained during peacetime tend not to take the risks necessary in wartime $$?May 01, 2014

 

Wrong?

  • Wrong:Nontraded REIT returns: Where to put cash now??http://t.co/EPykRK8e7S?Avoid illiquidity unless u r paid 4 it. Avoid big commissions $$?May 03, 2014
  • Wrong: China’s Century Starts Now @BloombergView?http://t.co/UUziinXlqJ?Wait until after the banking crash & recovery, then write this $$?May 01, 2014
  • Wrong: Money-Market Funds As Safe as Banks, Except When They’re Not?http://t.co/7S2TEDpk7Q?Banks fail more often & losses r more severe $$?May 01, 2014

?

Retweets, Replies, and Comments?

  • “Ask Buffett about the Harney Investment Trust:http://t.co/KUHnslWBFv…” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/bLVAj6OY7O $$?May 02, 2014
  • Commented on StockTwits: Whoops, and I should have gotten that one right?http://t.co/nB9lRK14kb?May 01, 2014
  • “Paul, try valuing BRK off of increase in book value per share, and the metric comes out to a more?” ? DavidMerkel?http://t.co/cm2Rdhkzfn?$$?May 01, 2014
  • “Now try to explain how long yields fell the last time the Fed tightened.” ? David_Merkel?http://t.co/MwJL3d6KQX?$$ FD: + $TLT?May 01, 2014
  • “If citizens are not created/educated by 18, you won’t have good citizens.” ? David_Merkel?http://t.co/TzfQsJULED?$$ http://t.co/eiOLPqNuub?Apr 29, 2014
  • “This may be a game of “Who has the stronger balance sheet?” $HLF or Ackman?” ? David_Merkel?http://t.co/2QCjheaJjd?$$?Apr 29, 2014
  • @Peter_Atwater @Minyanville @Socionomics Thanks, Peter. Means a lot coming from you.?Apr 28, 2014
  • @ReformedBroker @ritholtz feel free to repost it (w/credit to me) if you like?Apr 28, 2014
  • RT @felixsalmon: For the record, I never said, nor do I believe, that text is over. I?m still going to be writing lots of text!?Apr 28, 2014
  • RT @victorricciardi: @researchpuzzler @AlephBlog @jciesielski @tobyshute Tom Great meeting you Thanks for your ideas for promoting my new b??Apr 25, 2014
  • RT @researchpuzzler: thanks to CFA Society Baltimore @AlephBlog @victorricciardi @jciesielski @tobyshute for the great exchange of ideas?Apr 25, 2014
  • RT @ppearlman: summer must read – “@reformedbroker: CLASH OF THE FINANCIAL PUNDITS: COUNTDOWN BEGINS NOW!?http://t.co/iZqYTs8OFt“?Apr 25, 2014
  • RT @abnormalreturns: Had to Google ?cable network Fusion??RT @felixsalmon: It?s out: I?m going to Fusion?http://t.co/B1EK0eJmc8?Apr 24, 2014
  • RT @ChemistryVines: Mercury(II) thiocyanate (Hg(SCN)2)?https://t.co/Ar2yhIlOwo?Apr 23, 2014
  • @Calvinn_Hobbes I don’t know. We all want to grow up, until we do grow up. Only the foolish regret growing up.?Apr 22, 2014
Redacted version of the April 2014 FOMC Statement

Redacted version of the April 2014 FOMC Statement

Posted on by David Merkel
March 2014 April 2014 Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Weather is always a weak reason for a bad result.? You almost never see anyone claim good weather boosted results.

Didn?t they see today?s weak GDP report?
Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. No significant change.? What improvement?? Note: this is the one remaining place where they mention the ?unemployment rate.? Shh.
Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged down, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Shades household spending down, lowers their view on business fixed investment.
Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. No change.? Funny that they don?t call their tapering a ?restraint.?
Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. No change.? TIPS are showing slightly lower inflation expectations since the last meeting. 5y forward 5y inflation implied from TIPS is near 2.41%, up 0.15% from March.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. No change. Any time they mention the ?statutory mandate,? it is to excuse bad policy.
The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. No change.
The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. No change.
The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. No change.? CPI is at 1.5% now, yoy.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. No change.
In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month. Reduces the purchase rate by $5 billion each on Treasuries and MBS.? No big deal.

 
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. No change
The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. No change.? But it has almost no impact on interest rates on the long end, which are rallying into a weakening global economy.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. No change. Useless paragraph.
If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. No change.? Says that purchases will likely continue to decline if the economy continues to improve.
However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. No change.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. No change.
In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. Monetary policy is like jazz; we make it up as we go.? Also note that progress can be expected progress ? presumably that means looking at the change in forward expectations for inflation, etc.
The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. No change.? Its standards for raising Fed funds are arbitrary.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. No change.
The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. No change.
With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee’s guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.   That sentence lasted only one month.? Note that the phrase ?unemployment rate? is close to being banned by the FOMC.? The dual mandate is not so dual, at least in the old sense.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

 

 Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Kocherlakota rejoins the majority, even with no change to the ?fifth paragraph? of the March statement.
Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee’s commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.   Thus ends the lamest vote against an FOMC decision that I have ever seen.? The differences between the last statement?s fifth and sixth paragraphs were minuscule.

Comments

  • Small $10 B/month taper.? Equities and long bonds both rise.? Commodity prices fall.? The FOMC says that any future change to policy is contingent on almost everything.
  • They shaded household spending down, and lowered their view on business fixed investment.? Don?t know they keep an optimistic view of GDP growth, especially amid falling monetary velocity.
  • At least they are abandoning the unemployment rate as their measure of labor conditions.
  • They missed a real opportunity to simplify the statement.? More words obfuscate, they do not clarify.
  • In the past I have said, ?When [holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt] doesn?t work, what will they do?? I have to imagine that they are wondering whether QE works at all, given the recent rise and fall in long rates.? The Fed is playing with forces bigger than themselves, and it isn?t dawning on them yet.
  • The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.? As a result, the FOMC ain?t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.? Labor employment is the key metric.
  • GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and much of the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers, and part-time workers.
Productivity Inequality

Productivity Inequality

Posted on by David Merkel

I would encourage people to contact their friends that are better off, to give them contacts with their friends that are better off, to see what it takes to earn a superior income. ?Yes, there are those that have rich inheritances, but those are a minority among the rich. ?Most of the rich are rich because they built something significant.

I am reluctant to hire a person to help me. ?But I know many people who know far less about investing, who are making far more than me. ?Do I begrudge them that? ?No. ?I am happy to grow my business slowly, and they hire people to aid in marketing, operations, and investing.

Guess what? There are relatively few people willing to take the risks of running a big business, and that includes me. ?But hiring people and structuring their work increases the productivity of the entrepreneur. ?Being an entrepreneur is significant — my Dad was that, but it was a three-man firm, and I asked him when I was sixteen, “Why not set up a second team so that you can do more, given your excellent reputation?” ?He told me that he did not want to sacrifice quality. ? He did not want to drift into the background, where he could not directly control the quality of his company’s work.

With all of the talk of income inequality, I would urge people to consider two things:

1) You always have the ability to start you own firm, and work for yourself. ?How much did it cost me to start my own firm? ?Less than $250. ?There were other costs after that, but well within my revenues.

2) Structuring of economic activity is important. ?Jobs do not appear out of nowhere, aside from useless government jobs. ?Private firms must figure out where they need help, and hire accordingly.

The difference between a mediocre CEO and a great one is tremendous. ?Don’t begrudge A CEO his pay, unless he is a failure. ?CEOs should be paid highly, with the condition that they lose pay if they do badly.

It’s the Tenth Commandment: Do not covet. ?When you have a good attitude, which is be happy with the prosperity of others, you yourself will be more happy given what you have. ?Don’t give in to envy, it is a cancer that harms your life and happiness.

Finally, recognize the reality: different people produce more value than others and should receive more value as a result. ?It is a question of happiness. ?People have needs, and who can meet those needs cost-efficiently?

Those who are unemployed, or who complain that they are not paid enough should start their own businesses, so that they can realize how tough it is to run a business. ?Jobs aren’t free; they don’t appear magically, and the government rarely creates real jobs.

Don’t think you are paralyzed because you don’t have a job. ?Create your own job, by solving a need that others don’t meet.

Finally, let’s get used to the idea that income inequality is normal, and is the result of differing efforts.

  • Some people do more when they are young.
  • Some people network better than others.
  • Those who direct productivity successfully deserve a greater reward.

Intelligent management of businesses does not magically occur. ? It takes a concentrated interest in a share of the profits of a business to run the business well.

Don’t talk about income inequality. ?Instead, focus on productivity inequality — there are many who are less productive, and deserve less as a result.

Not all work is equal — harder work deserves more pay, and intelligent work deserves yet more pay.

So don’t begrudge inequality in pay — this is what should be. ?And to those on the low end:

Put in extra effort to show that you are earnest. ?Do your best for the firm.

Learn about areas related to your work, which will make you more valuable to your firm. ?Take chances, and learn — it might not be valuable today, but it might eventually be valuable.

I would say to all: work more intelligently. ?Where you can be more productive, do that.

Final note: I would encourage employers to look at resumes rather than having computers analyze them. ? Human beings will have a better sense on whether a person is well-suited for a job than a mere screening for keywords. ?Beyond that, I would say to employers, put yourselves in the shoes of those seeking work. ?Would you like to be screened by computers rather than analyzed by a person?

I’m pretty certain most would agree with me that using computers to screen resumes is ?a stupid practice. ?So if you do that, abandon the practice, it might save time, but it does not improve the hiring process.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Stocks & Industries

  • Invest In Stubs, Spin-Offs And Liquidations For Alternative Returns?http://t.co/ccezep0K9Y?Cites a Gabelli article http://t.co/xTrqEfmQeq $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Real Estate Management Better Than Owning Real Estate??http://t.co/IFaDLiwTRa?Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Definitely adds more leverage $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Wells Fargo Securities Lending Lawsuit Ends in Settlement?http://t.co/w3lSY4Cw8D?Low margin business that can go badly wrong in a crisis $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Makani, a $GOOG subsidiary makes an airborne wind turbine that dramaticlly increases power generation efficiency?http://t.co/0Fug49o7gC?$$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Google to Buy Titan Aerospace as Web Giants Battle for Air Superiority?http://t.co/HjJ8wKtnjM?Makes me think $GOOG has 2much $$ 2spend?Apr 18, 2014
  • Profit Tastes Like Chicken in Hunt for Cheaper US Meat?http://t.co/drgQbwEiKR?With recent rise in beef & pork prices people substitute $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Roads Versus Rail:The Big Battle Over Public Transportation?http://t.co/ydBxEglexC?Makes case that American will own fewer cars in future $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Barclays Ups $LNC To Buy, Says $MET , $PRU Are Undervalued – Stocks To Watch?http://t.co/c7yNaVZqdp?Stock Market sensitive insurance cos $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Bidding War Looming for Aspen? Analysts Say Don?t Count On It?http://t.co/iMotqyAgHv?Offer 4 $AHL looks pretty full 2me, dont look4more $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Biggest LBO Demise Poised to Put Oncor in Play?http://t.co/d30djwOa5M?Buffett is unlikely 2 enter into bidding in a competitive sale $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Target of Naked Short Sellers Is Angry, Confused?http://t.co/I3ZZDn5JNp?@matt_lavine takes on imaginary naked shorting in $LPHI $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Radioactive Waste Is North Dakota’s New Shale Problem?http://t.co/BiMkO0ZdgK?Significant amounts of low level radiation from radium $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • The death of mortgage lending?http://t.co/u8uQBvZCuS?Loan yields must rise in order to compensate for higher required capital at banks $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Kochs? Flood Insurance Opposition Becomes Campaign Issue?http://t.co/b1iuvoVhZK?1 of the few businesses the Kochs’ aren’t in is insurance $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Office Markets Strengthen Where Tech, Energy Jobs Are?http://t.co/sESuHUeAVr?Helps explain the spottiness of commercial RE prices $$ $CMBS?Apr 18, 2014
  • Labor Shortage Threatens to Bust the Shale Boom?http://t.co/R1TctaTelD?Can’t find a job? Consider learning to weld; monotonous but pays $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Koch Brothers Net Worth Tops $100B as TV Warfare Escalates?http://t.co/XgH0M6CNIR?Almost as wealthy as extended Walton family $$ $WMT $SPY?Apr 18, 2014
  • Big Banks Ramp Up Business Lending?http://t.co/83dMAPIQia?Signs of life spotted in big corporations, but r they just buying back stock? $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • How Can Yahoo Be Worth Less Than Zero??http://t.co/sr3owwkyNE?@matt_levine argues a breakup of $YHOO makes sense even if core biz loses $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Wal-Mart Undercuts Rivals With New U.S. Money Transfer Service?http://t.co/a4vq0HYALi?Useful if u need 2 transfer $$ inside the US $WMT $SPY?Apr 18, 2014
  • How Chick-fil-A Spent $50M to Change Its Grilled Chicken?http://t.co/Q9kpXoSIbF?The marinade matters, but the grill design was the key $$?Apr 15, 2014
  • Small US Colleges Battle Death Spiral as Enrollment Drops?http://t.co/nHRhO4Gc1R?Too much capacity & affordability is a problem $$ $APOL?Apr 14, 2014

Outside the US

  • China GDP Gauge Seen Showing Deeper Slowdown?http://t.co/ntIxxdXcpO?If China increases consumption GDP growth will fall faster still $$ $FXI?Apr 18, 2014
  • Housing Trouble Grows in China?http://t.co/Z4tKUuqLFd?Overbuilding by Real-Estate Developers Leaves Smaller Cities W/Glut of Apartments $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Suddenly, Europe Is Taking a Harder Line on Russia Sanctions?http://t.co/MnzxvMP3pe?Nations can solidify when they face a common threat $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Las Bambas Copper Mine Purchase Shows China’s Still in the Hunt for Commodities?http://t.co/h1cqGERGCu?China may not b changing much $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Forgetting How to Speak Russian?http://t.co/D0UwT6unki?Among former Soviet republics knowing Russian is less important for business $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • The Middle East War on Christians?http://t.co/BW1NwCAXuH?Israeli Ambassador 2 UN argues Israel is tolerant of Christians, not like some $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Britons Struggle to Save for Home Down Payments as Prices Surge?http://t.co/M6vH0vDlDs?Space is constrained in London & foreigners buy $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • US Said to Warn Money Managers of More Russia Sanctions?http://t.co/rB8AUQTsnc?Putin knows Iran survived worse sanctions; Russia tougher $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • China Sentences Four Activists on Disturbing Public Order Charge?http://t.co/Tx95rrhWsb?Mostly, US has rule of law, China has rule by law $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • US govt isn’t perfect, but in principle the govt is subject to the Constitution & laws, & not merely able 2 use law 2 enforce its will $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Frontier Fund Buyers Find It Pays To Look Under The Hood?http://t.co/JQ6khwYllJ?2much $$ is being thrown @ frontier mkts; crowded trade $FM?Apr 18, 2014
  • Why iShares? ?FM? Is About To Get Better?http://t.co/4FiqlfW0YS?Diversifies out of Middle East, but frontier market vals r stretched $$ $FM?Apr 18, 2014
  • Putin’s 21-Year Quest to Be Russian Guardian Began in Estonia?http://t.co/5oelLBHCmN?Father was betrayed by Estonians in WWI, almost died $$?Apr 15, 2014

Market Dynamics & Fundamentals

  • Bridgewater Founder Says 85 Percent Of Pensions will Go Bankrupt?http://t.co/YknEmyGgfJ?9% pension returns required, 4% is most likely $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • The Fitch Fundamentals Index Dashboard?http://t.co/OzI6KWUFfs?Interesting little utility 4 understanding where we are in the credit cycle $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Rich Start-Ups Go Back for Another Helping?http://t.co/ZbFbpLVgmM?When capital is plentiful, bad decisions get made. expected returns low $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Stumbling S&P 500 Reaches Worst Stretch of Election Cycle?http://t.co/zgJTynu2od?Interesting timing, wonder whether past is prologue? $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • How a 56-Year-Old Engineer?s $45K Loss Spurred SEC Probe?http://t.co/3HfdH2aqxK?Always read the risk factors in the prospectus or 10K $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • High-Speed Traders Said to Be Subpoenaed in NY Probe?http://t.co/2qxmrxeVd7?What level of technology is legitimate 2 gain an advantage? $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Nuggets of Corporate Governance Wisdom From Charlie Munger?http://t.co/gMFIE9jlRM?Also c this paper: http://t.co/033v0bgdYr $$ $BRK.B $SPY?Apr 18, 2014
  • Global stock rally: World market cap reached record high in March, &is $2.4T above pre-recession, pre-crisis level?http://t.co/iMq0IoBhch?$$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Speed?the only HFT advantage? Not so fast?Flash?Boyshttp://www.cnbc.com/id/101586488?Algorithms may also be an advantage w/price patterns $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Investor Alert – Exchange-Traded Notes?Avoid Unpleasant Surprises?http://t.co/NqhUr2whsJ?A helpful reminder 2b wary of exotic ETNs $$ $SPY?Apr 18, 2014
  • Americans Sold on Real Estate as Best Long-Term Investment?http://t.co/La4UROU0ie?Helps explain y retail investors lose on average $$ $GLD?Apr 18, 2014
  • Destroying Smart Beta 2: Ground Rules?http://t.co/uecYqZLCEe?Smart beta is a trendy but vapid concept, factors should be part of alpha $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Gross Loses to Goldman in Hot Bond Strategy as Pimco Lags?http://t.co/VWv7UC72bS?Series of bad bets makes Pimco a laggard as AUM flees $$?Apr 15, 2014
  • Trillion-Dollar Firms Dominating Bonds Prompting Probes?http://t.co/RXZNkNwtFs?Concentrated markets can lead to bond pricing distortions $$?Apr 15, 2014

US Politics & Policy

  • What’s the Matter With Illinois??http://t.co/wmDiyWDN1e?They r the exemplary state for shortsightedness & corruption $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Heartbleed Hackers Steal Encryption Keys in Threat Test?http://t.co/dYfezfXe8A?>6 people were able to extract private key of a website $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Elijah Cummings, W/IRS, Targeted Tea Party Group True The Vote?http://t.co/TE5A1zTM0y?I live in his gerrymandered district; kick him out $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Yellen Lays Groundwork for Rules on Short-Term Credit Markets?http://t.co/z03MWlpsqI?Fed doesn’t regulate the banks well, y try 4 more? $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Schooling on a ‘Debit Card’?http://t.co/wwixbB0pqy?Arizona created a program so that special needs kids can get specialized schooling $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • IRS Among Agencies Using License Plate-Tracking Vendor?http://t.co/HTs5aEMNtK?Howard County Police use it & catch people 4 old crimes $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Wealth Effect Failing to Move Wealthy to Spend?http://t.co/R3vfD5i94J?Wealth effect, if it exists, is small, FOMC is pursuing illusions $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • NSA Said 2 Exploit Heartbleed Bug for Intelligence for Years?http://t.co/9XvcLX9ZTE?NSA quietly knows security vulnerabilities; uses them $$?Apr 15, 2014
  • The Wall Street second-chances rule: scandal makes the rich grow stronger?http://t.co/8HhscWJjMN?What does not kill us makes us stronger? $$?Apr 14, 2014

Practical

  • How well do you know your insurance policy??http://t.co/szp3G8H4kN?Know what is covered & what isn’t, how much is covered & options $$?Apr 19, 2014
  • Attention Shoppers: Fruit and Vegetable Prices Are Rising?http://t.co/MMdPOLry9A?As are meat prices & most food prices $$ #agflation?Apr 18, 2014
  • How to start investing?http://t.co/yGyziE8Tac?Good advice from a credible source $$?Apr 18, 2014

Other

  • El Nino Signs Detected, Presaging Global Weather Change?http://t.co/D1uDLS9aJ0?El Nino exists 2 give us something 2 blame when frustrated $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • More People Pick Elimination Diets to Discover Food Sensitivities?http://t.co/ftQkzs3PxP?Fad and Science of Not Eating Entire Food Groups $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • SAT Adopts Real-World Questions and Jettisons Obscure Words?http://t.co/Mspw9EG3OV?In 2016, changes from intelligence to achievement test $$?Apr 18, 2014
  • Scientists Make First Embryo Clones From Adults?http://t.co/e5qlwyiWwj?Cloned cells 2create early-stage embryos, matching DNA tissue $$?Apr 18, 2014

Comments, Replies & Retweets

  • RT @howardlindzon: Funds still paying up (I say silly overpay) for private over public, this is spooking IPO ‘s for sure?http://t.co/mclSd9??Apr 15, 2014
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

US Policy & Politics?

  • Nearly Half of Dodd-Frank Rules Still Unwritten?http://t.co/TwzSawT298?Experiment of regulation by study committees continues albeit slow $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Banks Given Two Extra Years to Fully Comply With Volcker Rule http://t.co/XVfO9CKMm7?Banks prefer abolition; Fed offers a delay $$ #more??Apr 12, 2014
  • How Big Banks Created a Fed to Serve Their Own Interests?http://t.co/tUlNYE3px5?Fed almost always ends up being a shill 4 the banks $$ $XLF?Apr 12, 2014
  • Angry students snap photos of lunches, tell Michelle Obama: ‘You call this a [expletive] lunch?’?http://t.co/PY4gfa90oI?Food Nazis r mean $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • On equal pay for women, Obama challenges GOP to ‘join us in this the 21st century’ http://t.co/wthQJKwsOO?White House has own disparities $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • When the Messenger Is Worth Shooting?http://t.co/GGuAxpkizc?Fewer & fewer people think teaching financial literacy 2 avg ppl works $$ $SPY?Apr 12, 2014
  • Republicans should be friendly to markets, not to business?http://t.co/YXEWNr9MEh?Big business excellent at co-opt laws 4 their own good $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Maybe a Gender Pay Gap Is OK?http://t.co/2rtYIZ6MFo?This argumentation isn’t new; economists have been making this argument since the 70s $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • The Best SEC Money Can Buy?http://t.co/wbwBB0CYd4?@ritholtz on Jim Kidney’s excellent retirement speech on the SEC which is worth reading $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Food Price Shock, 2014 Edition?http://t.co/u79xlrwK1I?Note that the last time this happened, wars & other pains hit developing world $$?Apr 12, 2014

Market Impact

  • Hedge Fund Industry Growing With Pensions To Thank?http://t.co/RF2FTh3YsD?Probably a mistake as hedge funds tend not 2b good w/volatility $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Hedge Funds Unwind As Growth To Value Rotation Intensifies?http://t.co/XoK1RFKiAg?As growth stocks correct, hedge funds chase performance $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • How Money Managers Fight Their Emotions and Sometimes Lose http://t.co/J0KH06m12P Too Bold? Not bold enough? Tough 2strike right balance $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • The Buys You Can?t Make Yourself?http://t.co/0swRNG0Eyo?@reformedbroker points out the value of @MebFaber ‘s global value ETF $GVAL $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Humble Student of the Markets: A quant lesson from a technician http://t.co/svQilIRW4m Useful way to understand indicators & mkt regimes $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • 2014 crash will be worse than 1987’s: Marc Faber?http://t.co/Guil41sSvP?Bold w/respect to timing &severity of the next crisis, prob wrong $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Do ‘rising rate’ ETFs really protect investors??http://t.co/tcx2p4qtuc?I would b wary here; additional yield often carries hidden risks $$?Apr 12, 2014

Rest of the World

  • Kuroda Seen Brewing Yen-Weakening Surprise Action?http://t.co/fVpFvwEiJz?Don’t b shocked if the BOJ does yet more to weaken the yen $FXY $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • This is the bank to watch for a Chinese credit implosion?http://t.co/sKL9NPruZz?Minsheng is an aggressive lender 2the most dodgy credits $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • China?s steelmakers have branched out into shadow banking?which is funny since they owe $484B?http://t.co/Z1IzHBJJ7G?Brief stmt of prob $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • China Pizza Passion Has Fonterra Riding Mozzarella Wave?http://t.co/J4605GnGK4?Pizza is so different than traditional Chinese food $$ $YUM?Apr 12, 2014
  • Ukraine?s Rust Belt Faces Ruin as Putin Threatens Imports?http://t.co/7BYk6ULy3t?Russia has more ec influence on Ukraine thn US on Russia $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Saudi Banks Reject Algosaibi Meeting on $5.9B Default?http://t.co/6eZwowBlZW?Islamic finance struggles w/debt that isn’t debt but is debt $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Lavender-Filled Teddy Bears From Tasmania Are a Big Hit in China http://t.co/ubhWoUSnQz?Bobbie Bear touches the hearts of Chinese ladies $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Top economists warn Germany that EMU crisis as dangerous as ever http://t.co/gsqrbZ5ox0?Overall & banking leverage still higher than safe $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Fracking’s hottest year in China?http://t.co/5xVoKK6K0d?China finds gas & tight oil in their shale formations. Who knew? $$ $FXI $XLE?Apr 12, 2014

Companies & Industries

  • Time Inc. to Raise $1.4B in Debt for Spinoff?http://t.co/8QUGvyKhrv?I would b careful here; levering up old media not a recipe 4 success $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Vox Takes Melding of Journalism and Technology to a New Level http://t.co/YdMuuu0ZQC?Vox Media creates a content mgmt system 4 journalism $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Trailer Parks Lure Wall Street Investors Looking for Double-Wide Returns http://t.co/zym4OmSDP5?Poor people have a hard time moving $$?Apr 12, 2014

Other

  • Stay-at-Home Moms Rise in Reversal of Modern Family Trend http://t.co/sCBErpTIhk?Children deserve attention to help them grow up $$ $SPY?Apr 12, 2014
  • More Moms Staying Home, Reversing Decadeslong Decline?http://t.co/w7bnhw8tQd?Value in efforts 2 produce better children w/more parenting $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Font War: Inside the Design World’s $20M Divorce?http://t.co/4YpYf1x5UN?Not clearly spelling out a partnership agreement: font of trouble $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Windows XP Goes Dark; Will Hackers Be Lurking??http://t.co/GPBJKpzdhf?XP has been debugged; odds of significant holes are low $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • After Heartbleed Bug, A Race to Plug Internet Hole?http://t.co/HCBfcHBl5O?A significant part of internet affecting privacy had a hole $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Global solar dominance in sight as science trumps fossil fuels?http://t.co/BZOdAVwYbA?Can capture 31% of sun’s energy with a 111V Solar Cell?Apr 12, 2014
  • At Gross’s Pimco, El-Erian Says ‘Different Styles’ Stopped Working Well Together http://t.co/vRqPfRA67m?Oil & water eventually separated $$?Apr 12, 2014

Wrong

  • Unsafe: Greece Plans to Issue Long-Term Bond on Wednesday?http://t.co/X4gnld481q?Lust 4 yield guides the behavior of debt investors $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Misleading: Oklahoma Swamped by Surge in Earthquakes Near Fracking http://t.co/nHfPIWys3q?All quakes r little which avoids big quakes $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • Wrong: Are Safer Cars Worth the Money??http://t.co/1N0Y9aklJb?Misapplies benefit-cost analysis; may b cheaper ways 2 save more lives $$ $F?Apr 12, 2014

Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • ‘ @foxjust Nice going; EEBS is breaktakingly honest with respect to earnings manipulation. cc: @jciesielski $$?Apr 12, 2014
  • RT @ReformedBroker: Reminder: The Fed?s own economic forecasts are basically worse than your dog?s.?http://t.co/uLYirMA5zB?Apr 09, 2014
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

  • Putin’s Rejection of the West, in Writing?http://t.co/X0SOPFH80d?”Russia must be viewed as a unique and original civilization…” $$ $MACRO?Apr 05, 2014
  • Japan Working Women Face Tax Blow as Their Numbers Swell?http://t.co/D38taPNgWT?Govt’s like women working o/s home: can tax their output $$?Apr 05, 2014
  • China Leverage Seen Rising Through 2016?http://t.co/8hJzmlSBp5?It’s relatively worse than advertised, debts r private, bank & muni $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • China Unsated by US Ham Means More Food Deals?http://t.co/Cn7hFTEGwP?If China is rebalancing to consumption, expect large food imports $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Rajan Offers No Solace as Developers Fight Rut?http://t.co/Ml8RhIt7Eb?Rising rates put pressure on Indian businessmen $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • CHINA IS IMPORTING GOLD SECRETLY USING MILITARY CHANNELS?http://t.co/gYAjRrwz1c?@JamesGRickards new book is coming out in a few days $$ $GLD?Apr 01, 2014
  • How rumour sparked panic and three-day bank run in Chinese city?http://t.co/i3K74leRHG?All it took was a rumor that went viral $$ $FXI $SPY?Apr 01, 2014
  • Foreign Policy Legacy of Obama Administration in European Hands?http://t.co/LTF2ozdpyA?U don’t want Europeans 2question the value of NATO $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Chinese Private Sector Debt?http://t.co/4LMSyjvEV9?China’s ratio of private debt to GDP is higher than the US & EU http://t.co/lXhCxlzumX $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Poor Coordination Led to Flawed Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370?http://t.co/RugoIUSm1y?Maybe, but would have been hard $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • South Sudan Ethnic Hatred Drives Rebel Leader?s White Army?http://t.co/diy5Tk9W8M?Read the last sentence & u will c y this war persists $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • She?s lost 3 sons in the war & is adamant should continue. ?The war will not be stopped until we kill all Dinka, including the children,? $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • China Burns Speculators as $5.5B Lost on Yuan Bets?http://t.co/srRCSJ9kmU?Real market goes more than 1 way, doles out punishment 2losers $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Almost 10,000 Divorces Each Day in China’s Breakup Boom?http://t.co/0T7pTpeg4e?Driven by increasing economics & greater freedom 2 do so $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Dashed Ikea Dreams Show Decades Lost to Bribery in Ukraine?http://t.co/9fU4nPMnSj?Corruption & denial of propty rights keep nations poor $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • China’s $14.5B Test?http://t.co/W9lO6L2LDc?China seizes $14.5B assets from family, associates of ex-security chief http://t.co/6STqFY74DB $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • China Lake Saved From Stink Leaves Fiscal Cleanup for Li?http://t.co/lAOloKNSxo?Ability 2 service municipal debt is a problem 4 China $$?Apr 01, 2014

US Politics & Policy

  • A Catastrophe Like No Other?http://t.co/zKuULERWYm?Peggy Noonan: The president tries to put a good face on ObamaCare $$ #unforcederror $TLT?Apr 05, 2014
  • Janet Yellen’s Human Message Gets Clouded?http://t.co/8oYHkdPN4W?Truth is monetary policy is weak w/respect to unemployment $$ Change regs?Apr 03, 2014
  • Yelp Reviews Brew Fight Over Free Speech, Fairness?http://t.co/2SoSO8K54f?Free speech doesn’t mean u can say anything, libel is a crime $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Democrats Bet on Technology Instead of Paying Down Debts?http://t.co/UjTKK9VFjC?Dems put lack of $$ where mouth is, b/c debts don’t matter?Apr 01, 2014
  • Constitutional conundrum: Michigan demand 4a balanced budget could trigger amendment convention?http://t.co/UU2pVgEnuu?States take power? $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • The House Republican Mess?http://t.co/COfoZ0303M?GOP leadership held unannounced voice vote on a one-year unfunded “doc fix” 4 Medicare $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • What Is a Patent Troll? Congress, Courts Try to Find Out?http://t.co/BDDs3DOccp?Should not be able to patent ideas, many ways 2 implement $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Controversial FHA payoff rule to end?http://t.co/gopPWWpQYL?At closings, FHA required one month’s interest from sellers who prepaid mtge $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Supreme Court skeptical of computer-based patents?http://t.co/nHLTpDyP8J?Multiple ways 2 achieve same results w/computer code $$ $MSFT $GOOG?Apr 01, 2014
  • Yellen Assures Markets on Interest Rates?http://t.co/OeOTmQHZuj?In the short-run, monetary looseness helps, in the long-run it hurts $$ $TLT?Apr 01, 2014
  • GOP Sees a New Path for Senate Through Iowa?http://t.co/wsb8jJKpWd?Looking at the data, the GOP will have a hard time taking the Senate $$?Apr 01, 2014?? ? ? ? ? ?

Market Impact

  • Buying Bonds in Sellers? World: Prepare to Fail?http://t.co/y7DBRjX57P?If u r a life insurer, don’t want 2 give up income from prem bonds $$?Apr 05, 2014
  • Emerging markets ETFs take off in March and June?http://t.co/Dd5IMvcU8B?Bear market rallies r short & sharp, watch monetary tightening $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Investors Clamor for Risky Debt Offerings?http://t.co/pYAj8nxQve?High yield isn’t so high anymore, & income starvation leads ppl astray $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Gross Worst as Volatility Spikes in Fund?http://t.co/V1ncKkJNHW?Bad idea to move to 5s just as Yellen began to speak unguardedly $$ #taper?Apr 03, 2014
  • Forget the lottery. Time for the Billionaire ETF??http://t.co/K2IZvH5CuA?Kind of a follow the 13Fs of the wealthy fund, could do worse $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Vanguard Beats BlackRock Winning Most ETF Money This Year?http://t.co/V1IppyRKyv?Low fees, sticky clients, tracks index well, low fees $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Andreesen On How To Kill Stock Market?http://t.co/sbgdxaumyy?Personal pet peeve is how Sarbox killed off sponsored listings of fgn firms $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Activists Beat S&P 500 in 48% Gain for Shareholders?http://t.co/TwRuCI4lp3?Cool interactive graphic $$ $SPY?Apr 01, 2014
  • Investors Picking Fights Enhance Value as Stocks Beat S&P 500?http://t.co/c7N0cM7ytB?Problem: avg investors can’t find those stocks early $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Biggest ETF Flow From US Debt Since ?10 on Growth Optimism?http://t.co/YEy2MGXYKI?Funny how long Tsys haven’t tanked yet $$ $TLT?Apr 01, 2014
  • So Far, So Meh?http://t.co/0dCzzhpav3?@ReformedBroker tells us to expect a boring year when all is done with lots of jolts inbetween $$ $SPY?Apr 01, 2014
  • Flows Don?t Follow Value, They Follow Performance?http://t.co/lwe3zP0zIX?@reformedbroker tells u small investors r always late & lose $$?Apr 01, 2014??

High Frequency Trading (Boo!)

  • Michael Lewis Feels No Shame as Book Curdles Tempers?http://t.co/qIbX9ztO2r?Must admit, I lost respect 4 him on this last media circus $$?Apr 05, 2014
  • High-Frequency Trading May Be Too Efficient?http://t.co/3yLdqjijcA?@matt_levine explains the effect of HFT, who gets hurt, who doesn’t $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • High-Frequency Traders Chase Currencies as Stock Volume Recedes?http://t.co/YSHRec5emx?Ponder how HFT can b good 1 place & bad in others $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • What Michael Lewis Gets Wrong About High-Frequency Trading?http://t.co/1kf3Uh9fDH?He gets quite a bit wrong; this is a good summary $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • An Adaptation From ?Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt,? by Michael Lewis?http://t.co/8TB1fkkzbt?Tells story creating a fair stock exchange $$?Apr 01, 2014??

Marvel Comics Movies

  • Kevin Feige, Marvel’s Superhero at Running Movie Franchises?http://t.co/R5wWdhlAUX?Great article. Explains the strategic aspects well $$?Apr 05, 2014
  • Comic Wars: How Two Tycoons Battled Over the Marvel Comics Empire–And Both Lost?http://t.co/NuRuteq8f1?Provides backstory for Marvel $$?Apr 05, 2014??

Companies & Industries

  • Energy Future Talks Pit Billionaires Against Billionaires?http://t.co/Foaq3v50rf?& the IRS, who is owed billions, creditors want 2 stiff $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates?http://t.co/wM1FQHAKvz?Life of fracked wells is a lot shorter than conventional $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • New $GOOG Shares Hit Market as Founders Cement Grip With Split?http://t.co/FdYqQCPFPR?Won’t hurt much, just don’t issue2many C shs $$ $GOOGL?Apr 03, 2014
  • The Argument for $75 Oil Should Be $95 Oil?http://t.co/2EZdu90Scv?W/weak global econ, oil should b falling but it is not; new equilibrium $$?Apr 01, 2014??

Other

  • Loans Are Finally Easier to Get?http://t.co/JaVFE1LBLG?If this persists for 6 months, start watching consumer price inflation $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Jules Kroll’s KBRA Out to Disrupt Cozy Ratings Agency Business?http://t.co/xGOiU3Tg7V?Starts in area of greatest failure: securitizations $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • So U Think You’re Smarter Than A CIA Agent?http://t.co/OLWUPMnQi9?Good Judgment project finds bright ppl who predict better than experts $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Do We Hate Female Bosses??http://t.co/0oR9PBiSLe?Never had one, so I don’t know. 😉 $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • How Americans Meet Their Spouses?http://t.co/f5L9GZ6i8K?Fewer people meet their spouses @ work, more meet them over the internet than b4 $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • US Airports Are Off the Chart?http://t.co/s1dO4kOeOR?@Ritholtz shows how lack of infrastructural investment hurts the US $$ $SPY $TLT?Apr 01, 2014
  • Millennials Mired in Wealth Gap as Older Americans Gain?http://t.co/OfXlbWIV0l?If u had lots of debts & few assets going into 2008, ouch $$?Apr 01, 2014??

Wrong

  • 2hard: US Seeks Changes to ?Skewed? Data in UN Climate Draft?http://t.co/udApXg8XFq?Models r 2complex 2produce any sort of accuracy $$ $SPY?Apr 05, 2014
  • Wrong: Investment strategies you’d be foolish to ignore – Pros?http://t.co/CTaNMR01Sb?Many of these might work in the short-run, not L-T $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Wrong: Schwab: HFT a cancer that needs to be stopped?http://t.co/iVh9eatou2?It’s more complex than that; improves mkts in some ways $$ $SPY?Apr 03, 2014
  • Wrong: Christine Lagarde: global economic growth is still too slow?http://t.co/doefcWDiLN?Aside frm degegulation govts can’t affct growth $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Wrong: This Ratio Reveals The Market’s Top Bargains?http://t.co/Hs9A55z9To?Makes rookie error of applying FCF 2 financials, can’t b done $$?Apr 03, 2014
  • Wrong: The Modern View of the Stock Market?http://t.co/OnhWdKgPrj?Value of MPT is that it sidelines smart people who would b competitors $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Meh: Flight 370 Search Gains Vessel With Black Box-Detector?http://t.co/5PhcNkIEhL?Late 2 arrive; can’t probe more than 1 mile deep $$ $BA?Apr 01, 2014
  • Maybe: Home Sales in US Poised to Surge With Spring?http://t.co/Pi2oE4es0n?Maybe if prices come down this might happen, few moveup buyers $$?Apr 01, 2014
  • Very Wrong: When You Really Look, Financial Quicksand Turns Into Oligarchical BS?http://t.co/LhiEZNxtas?Claims Govt debt doesn’t matter $$?Apr 01, 2014??

Comments, Replies, and Retweets

  • @charlie_simpson Marry young, have children, a recipe for happiness that fights loneliness — true for men as well.?Apr 02, 2014
  • @insidermonkey @jimcramer @katsuyama Stupid argument. Read & learn?http://t.co/AtOpRCaRrN?$$?Apr 02, 2014
  • . @dpinsen seems he just wants it 2 stop. Also notes Darfur attacked once again?http://t.co/HRQ1xRLNYc?& http://t.co/dDE995HFi0 $$ $SPY $TLT?Apr 01, 2014
  • @dpinsen I’m not backing the Ukraine in NATO — only caution. NATO should be bold or silent, but not in-between, counting the costs. $$?Mar 30, 2014
Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 24

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 24

Posted on by David Merkel

These articles appeared between November 2012 and January 2013:

On Time Horizons

Investment advice without a time horizon is not investment advice.

This Election Will Solve Nothing

So far that is true of the 2012 elections.

NOTA Bene

We need to add “None of the Above” as an electoral choice in all elections.

Eliminating the Rating Agencies, Part 2

Eliminating the Rating Agencies, Part 3

Where I propose a great idea, and then realize that I am wrong.

The Rules, Part XXXV

Stability only comes to markets in a self-reinforcing mode, from buy and hold (and sell and sit on cash) investors who act at the turning points.

The Rules, Part XXXVI

It almost never makes sense to play for the last 5% of something; it costs too much. Getting 90-95% is relatively easy; grasping for the last 5-10% usually results in losing some of the 90-95%.

Charlie Brown the Retail Investor

Where Lucy represents Wall Street, the football is returns, and Charlie Brown is the Retail Investor. Aaauuuggh!

On Hucksters

Why to be careful when promised results seem too good, and they get delayed, or worse.

Bombing Baby BDC Bonds

Avoid bonds with few protective covenants, unless the borrower is very strong.

On Math Education

Why current efforts to change Math Education will fail. ?Pedagogy peaked in the ’50s, and has been declining since then.

On Human Fertility, Part 2

On the continuing decline in human fertility across the globe.

If you Want to be Well-off in Life

Simple advice on how to be better off. ?Warning: it requires discipline.

Young People Should Favor Low Discount Rates

If we had assumed lower discount rates in the past, we wouldn’t have the problems we do now. ?(And maybe DB pensions would have died sooner.)

Problems in Life Insurance

On why we should be concerned about life insurance accounting.

Investing In P&C Insurers

On why analyzing P&C insurers boils down to analyzing management teams.

Selling Options Cheaply (Did You Know?)

Naive bond investors often take on risks that they did not anticipate.

Book Review: The Snowball, Part One

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Two

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Three

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Four

Book Review: The Snowball, Epilogue

My review of the most comprehensive book on the life of Warren Buffett.

On Watchlists

How I met one of the Superinvestors of Graham-and -Doddsville, and how I generate investment ideas.

Why do Value Investors Like to Index?

How I admitted to not having ?a correct perspective on value indexing.

Evaluating Regulated Financials

Why regulated financials are different from other stocks, and how to analyze them.

Locking in a Smaller Loss

Why people are willing to lock in a loss against inflation, because of bad monetary policy.

Why I Sold the Long End

Great timing.

The Evaluation of Common Stocks

Value investing is still powerful, but the competition is a lot tougher.

The Order of Battle in Financial Planning for Ordinary Folks

The basics of personal finance

Sorting Through the News

How to use my free news screener to cut through the news flow, and eliminate noise.

On Financial Blogging

So why do we spend the time at this?

Matching Assets and Liabilities Personally

How to manage investments to fit your own need for cash in the future.

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

How short-sighted, incompetent managers destroy value.

Expensive High Yield ? II

No such thing as a bad trade , only an early trade… high yield prices moved higher from here.

2012 Financial Report of the US Government

Chronicling the financial promises made by the Federal Government

On Insurance Investing, Part 1

On Insurance Investing, Part 2

On Insurance Investing, Part 3

The first three parts of my 7-part series on how to understand this complex group of sub-industries.

How to Become Super-Rich?

Even Buffett didn’t get super-rich by only investing his own money. ?He had to invest the money of others as well. ?The super-rich form corporations and grow them; they build institutions bigger than themselves.

The Product that Never saw the Light of Day

On the Variable Annuity product that would simply be a tax scam. ?Later I would learn that product exists now, just not in the form I proposed 8 years earlier when it didn’t exist.

Theme: Overlay by Kaira.