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At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference, Part 7

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference, Part 7

Photo Credit: European Parliament
Photo Credit: European Parliament

PANEL 4: THE FED?S EXIT STRATEGY VS. FUNDAMENTAL REFORM

Moderator: Craig Torres
Reporter, Bloomberg

Jerry L. Jordan
Former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Lawrence H. White
Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Kevin Dowd
Professor of Finance and Economics, Durham University

Torres introduces White, who talks about the need for a Fed exit from credit policy

QE was not a monetary policy. ?M2 anemic amid a huge rise in the monetary base. ?High powered money ain’t. ?Did not want to see M2 rise, which would lead to inflation.

Fed sterilized through interest on excess reserves [IOER]. ?This favored housing over other uses of credit. ?Fiscal policy masquerading as monetary policy.

Dramatic impact on its portfolio duration and income. ?Record interest income. ?Most gets?gets rebated to the Treasury, rest to the banks. ?Thinks Fed’s average maturity has moved from 4 to 12 years. ?Buiter predicted it. ?Fed is doing it all?for the Treasury.

Fed shouldn’t allocate credit. ?Takes away Congress’s job of wasting money. [DM: he said it, not me] ?Now a demand comes for a Puerto Rico bailout. ?Can’t give away money costlessly, even if you print it.

Lowers penalty for failure. ?At present the Fed has no plans to exit credit allocation; Congress will have to act to end it.

Jerry Jordan: Fed built the financial bubble. ?13th Fed res bank? ?Think he’s talking about Fannie and Freddie…

Monetary authorities as eunuchs. ?Political Viagra needed. ?Has fiat money run its course?

Foreign banks borrowing from the FHLB.

Money multipliers broken, high powered money does not exist. ?Central bank balance sheet is unrelated to money conditions in the economy. ?QE can be contractionary. ?There is no possible exit from QE. ?Stopping QE was good, but ending it will not happen, because IOER and reverse repos are the rule. ?IOER borrows from banks and RR borrows from money market funds and GSEs.

Zero experience on IOER and Rev repos. ?Who knows what would happen if inflation rose?

Conclusion: aggressive Fed policy has had no impact on inflation, and the Fed does not truly affect credit at present. ?Thee are no tools now for dealing with a rise in inflation.

Torres: things are anything but normal now.

Dowd: Extreme Keynesian Policies have not delivered.

Hi recommendation: Recommoditize the dollar, recapitalize the bank, restore strong governance to banking, and roll back government intervention

?? Put Hetty Green on the $10 bill!

Commodity standards with a feedback rule. [DM: quack, quack]

Banks need to run with high levels of capital in order to take more risks. ?Higher standards, and less gameable. ?Riskier positions would be penalized.

Banks would not be able to pay bonuses, dividends, buy back stock until they were compliant. ?SIFI banks only at 7% GAAP capital, 5% under IFRS. ?Social consequences of higher bank capital levels are zero. ?Capital is not a “rainy day fund.” [True]

Bank directors would be limited to unlimited personal liabilities. ?Bring back double liability for shareholders? ?Unlimited liabiity for shareholders. ?Look at the investment banks; when they went public, they threw risk control away.

GSEs and Fed ?would be wound down. ?Oligarchy of bankers block reform. ?Take the crony out of capitalism.

Q&A

1) High capital requirements but deregulating — what are you proposing??Depositors will seek highest return, and create another type of moral hazard.

D: Aims for getting the government out of the economy.

2) Bert Ely: possibility for capital arbitrage? ?Also shadow banking?

D: Capital rules created capital arbitrage.

Another fellow suggested that banks would be entirely equity funded.

3) Question on abolishing cash?

D: Deflationary collapse.

4) What would happen if people were taxed for holding cash?

Much held by foreigners — punish them with negative interest rates. ?But it will never happen.

5) To Larry: what of negative interest rates. ?Wouldn’t assets still stay at the Fed for regulatory reasons?

W:???

6) Transition from monetary to fiscal policy at the Fed?

Bernanke’s theory was that housing had to be preserved above all else. ?Same thing for long term rates. ?Debt service costs to Treasuries reduced.

7) Wouldn’t negative interest rates destroy GDP?

Yes. then asked about whether there were any bond investors. ?Asked what would happen if the Fed tried to sell its mortgages.

Answer from one manager: I wouldn’t want to be the first buyer, and I wouldn’t trust the actions of the Fed… so the market and prices would back up considerably.

 

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 24

Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 24

These articles appeared between November 2012 and January 2013:

On Time Horizons

Investment advice without a time horizon is not investment advice.

This Election Will Solve Nothing

So far that is true of the 2012 elections.

NOTA Bene

We need to add “None of the Above” as an electoral choice in all elections.

Eliminating the Rating Agencies, Part 2

Eliminating the Rating Agencies, Part 3

Where I propose a great idea, and then realize that I am wrong.

The Rules, Part XXXV

Stability only comes to markets in a self-reinforcing mode, from buy and hold (and sell and sit on cash) investors who act at the turning points.

The Rules, Part XXXVI

It almost never makes sense to play for the last 5% of something; it costs too much. Getting 90-95% is relatively easy; grasping for the last 5-10% usually results in losing some of the 90-95%.

Charlie Brown the Retail Investor

Where Lucy represents Wall Street, the football is returns, and Charlie Brown is the Retail Investor. Aaauuuggh!

On Hucksters

Why to be careful when promised results seem too good, and they get delayed, or worse.

Bombing Baby BDC Bonds

Avoid bonds with few protective covenants, unless the borrower is very strong.

On Math Education

Why current efforts to change Math Education will fail. ?Pedagogy peaked in the ’50s, and has been declining since then.

On Human Fertility, Part 2

On the continuing decline in human fertility across the globe.

If you Want to be Well-off in Life

Simple advice on how to be better off. ?Warning: it requires discipline.

Young People Should Favor Low Discount Rates

If we had assumed lower discount rates in the past, we wouldn’t have the problems we do now. ?(And maybe DB pensions would have died sooner.)

Problems in Life Insurance

On why we should be concerned about life insurance accounting.

Investing In P&C Insurers

On why analyzing P&C insurers boils down to analyzing management teams.

Selling Options Cheaply (Did You Know?)

Naive bond investors often take on risks that they did not anticipate.

Book Review: The Snowball, Part One

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Two

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Three

Book Review: The Snowball, Part Four

Book Review: The Snowball, Epilogue

My review of the most comprehensive book on the life of Warren Buffett.

On Watchlists

How I met one of the Superinvestors of Graham-and -Doddsville, and how I generate investment ideas.

Why do Value Investors Like to Index?

How I admitted to not having ?a correct perspective on value indexing.

Evaluating Regulated Financials

Why regulated financials are different from other stocks, and how to analyze them.

Locking in a Smaller Loss

Why people are willing to lock in a loss against inflation, because of bad monetary policy.

Why I Sold the Long End

Great timing.

The Evaluation of Common Stocks

Value investing is still powerful, but the competition is a lot tougher.

The Order of Battle in Financial Planning for Ordinary Folks

The basics of personal finance

Sorting Through the News

How to use my free news screener to cut through the news flow, and eliminate noise.

On Financial Blogging

So why do we spend the time at this?

Matching Assets and Liabilities Personally

How to manage investments to fit your own need for cash in the future.

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

How short-sighted, incompetent managers destroy value.

Expensive High Yield ? II

No such thing as a bad trade , only an early trade… high yield prices moved higher from here.

2012 Financial Report of the US Government

Chronicling the financial promises made by the Federal Government

On Insurance Investing, Part 1

On Insurance Investing, Part 2

On Insurance Investing, Part 3

The first three parts of my 7-part series on how to understand this complex group of sub-industries.

How to Become Super-Rich?

Even Buffett didn’t get super-rich by only investing his own money. ?He had to invest the money of others as well. ?The super-rich form corporations and grow them; they build institutions bigger than themselves.

The Product that Never saw the Light of Day

On the Variable Annuity product that would simply be a tax scam. ?Later I would learn that product exists now, just not in the form I proposed 8 years earlier when it didn’t exist.

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference, Part 7 (Final, Recap)

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference, Part 7 (Final, Recap)

What I wrote in the prior six pieces were the thoughts of the speakers, mostly.? Now for what I think.

There were a number of free banking advocates at the session today.? I do not favor their views.? Though I am ordinarily libertarian, with finance I believe that depositary institutions must be required to match assets and liabilities, because the losses to society as a whole from financial panics are big, and they can be easily avoided with modest regulation.? This is true whether we are under a gold standard or a fiat money standard, or anything inbetween.

I personally favor a gold standard because it leads to fewer problems than a fiat currency standard.? If you don’t agree with this, wait a few years for the current monetary policy approach to blow up, and you might agree with me.

Does the gold standard burn in my heart?? No, I just think it is a better idea — we could have a fiat currency standard, and constrain the slope of the Treasury yield curve, and that would work also, just not as well.

I agree with most at the meeting today that the Fed was a bad idea, but it will not be easy to eliminate the Fed.? That said, if we have a significant crisis because of Fed policy, it will be time to bring out the long knives and eliminate it — replace it with a gold standard, a commodity standard, or a constrained central bank not allowed to do bailouts, and constrained by yield curve slope.

One thing that most agreed on is the need for a single mandate, not a dual mandate.? Inflation should be the only target of the Fed.? I agree, largely because the ability of monetary policy to affect employment is weak.

Allison’s talk was a highlight of the conference.? His experience with BB&T gives him unique insights into how banking regulation works, really, how it doesn’t work.? is characterization of how bank regulators worked was spot-on.? They exacerbate crises.

The conference had a strong sense that the Fed is creating asset bubbles via QE, and that it discriminated against the poor in favor of the rich.? I agree, as did Ron Paul two years ago at the conference.

As with many at the conference, I agree that the Fed has created most of our problems. Central banks are the problem, not the solution.? Their actions tend to be pro-cyclical, not anti-cyclical.

Finally, Scott Sumner, the most controversial guy of the day.? If I didn’t much care for NGDP targeting before, I care less for it now.? If he can’t see that monetary policy was too loose 2001-7, then to me, he is like Keynes, a man for whom monetary policy could never be too loose.

Final notes:

I care more that we constrain the banks such that they match assets and liabilities, than over the medium of exchange.? Crises happen because illiquid, long-dated assets are financed by short liquid liabilities.? This allows for run on the bank scenarios, which occurred through the repo markets, and portfolio margining in the last crisis.? This was not focused on at today’s meeting, and was an intellectual weakness of the meeting today.

All that said, it was a really good meeting, and I am glad that I went, mostly for the people I met.

At the Towson University Investment Group?s International Market Summit, Part 2

At the Towson University Investment Group?s International Market Summit, Part 2

Here are some questions submitted in writing that did not get asked. ?Here are some questions & answers:

1??????? What do you make of the move towards energy independence in America and what are some benefits that accommodate it?

Any innovation that lowers costs is a good thing. ?Energy independence is a a shibboleth that many bow to but is meaningless, absent embargoes or war.

The important thing is to deregulate exports of energy from the US, so that it can be done freely, allowing energy companies the ability to send crude oil and LNG to the places that value it the most. ?We also need to permit pipelines, and ignore the shortsighted environmentalists who don’t realize that pipelines minimize pollution relative to rail.

There will be some benefit to other US industries, which will get cheap energy because they don’t have high energy transport costs.

2??????? You can argue that we are in the midst of a bond bubble.? What are the implications on markets in the event this bubble bursts?

We aren’t in a bond bubble, at least not yet. ?Bubbles are typically asset-liability mismatches, where long assets are financed short. ?For a bond bubble to pop, you need the short financing rate to rise above the yield of the long bonds being financed. ?In more plebeian terms, you need the yield curve to invert. ?Bubbles pop when investors have to feed the asset in order to hold the position, and that never lasts long.

3??????? What are some risks of the global stimulus taking place?

We are involved in a?colossal?”race to the bottom.” ?Those with low exchange rates can temporarily stimulate their own economy, until another major country devalues their currency. ?The main risk is stagflation. ?Little growth, and depreciation of purchasing power. ?Personally, I would have preferred a deeper recession that eliminated bad debts.

4??????? How big of a risk is the European Union and Euro instability given the unprecedented circumstances in Cyprus where depositor monies are at risk?

The risk is big. ?Why should anyone hold money in a non-core Eurozone bank? ?Better to put it under your mattress where it can’t be confiscated.

Cyprus demonstrated that a Euro is not a Euro; value depends on where the Euro is. ?Far better to have many predictable currencies than a single unpredictable currency.

The Cyprus experience teaches two main lessons to those in stressed nations:

a) The deposit guarantees mean nothing.

b) Your money has a safer home buried in your yard.

You don’t want that to be the case. ?Runs on banks in weak nations compound all the other problems. ?Why help create the conditions of the Great Depression?

5??????? What do you make of the transparency (or lack thereof) in China? How big of a threat does this pose to investors and companies that do business in China?

Regardless of how cheap an asset is, you never trade away transparency. ?If you don’t understand an asset, you will never be able to trade it properly. ?It is a huge threat; avoid situations like this.

As an aside, China does not have the “rule of law.” ?They have “rule by law.” ?The distinction is significant, because under “rule of law” the government is subject to the law. ?Under “rule by law” the government controls the legal process. ?You are only as safe as your government connections are strong, and that is not very reliable as a foreigner.

6??????? With the suggestions from the president to increase the minimum wage, what are some of the effects that it might have on unemployment, foreign and business investment, and the market in general?

7??????? Should state minimum wages be tied the federal minimum wage and will the change in minimum wage at the federal level have any effect on states since they are not tied to federal minimum wage law?

You can’t get something for nothing. ?Any government intervention changing a price will have less impact than commonly believed. ?The free market should regulate wages, not the government.

But away from that, many corporations are penny wise, pound foolish. ?There are virtues in paying your employees an above-market wage where you:

  1. Train them
  2. Instill loyalty
  3. Make them part of the decision-making process
  4. Give them a sense of ownership, and offer profit-based bonuses.

If you pay your employees the minimum, expect minimum or worse efforts. ?Pilferage often comes from employees who realize their efforts are not appreciated.

I suspect this will go 2-3 more pieces. ?I hope you enjoy them.

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VII

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VII

1) One place where being an actuary and being a financial analyst melded well was with Affordable Housing and Historic Tax Credits.? In all of these investments, it made a great difference as to what the Statutory, Tax, and GAAP accounting bases.? When I described my methods of working through the free cash flows, AHIC [The Affordable Housing Investors Council] wanted me to speak to the whole regarding my methods.

I never gave the talk because we were full on tax credits, and I was too busy managing the portfolio of Fidelity & Guaranty Life.?? The moral is: watch free cash flow.

2) Probably the ugliest incident in managing money for Fidelity & Guaranty was when the management of F&G decided to try to buy the structured settlement liabilities of Confederation Life.? Big block, five potential buyers.?? St. Paul had a rule: we don’t outsource asset management.? Sadly, the chief actuary, against our admonitions allowed for reinsurance treaties that outsourced asset management.

During the conference call to legitimate the offer that we would make, several things happened:

a) F&G management accused St. Paul management of being bureaucrats, not businessmen.

b) St. Paul management told F&G management that they were ignoring the rules.

c) I informed both sides that we were all gentlemen here, and that the tone of discussion was not worthy of real businessmen.

d) The CEO of F&G eventually broke off the call, calling the St. Paul folks bureaucrats, rather than businessmen, and saying that they killed a good deal.

Personally, I think he said this to save face with his employees.? Also, the deal was marginal at best.? We would have had to take a lot of risk to make the deal work.? But F&G would not listen to us.

3) I liked buying seasoned bonds, because they were more predictable.? Problem: you could not buy them in size.? Buying bonds in the aftermarket is typically picking at scraps.? Face it — most bond buyer want to hold their bonds for a while.? Aside from the few that sell for a quick profit, most bond investors hold on for a long time.? But I would pick up scraps.? Enough scraps, and you have some decent positions.

If you do find a seasoned bond selling at a reasonable price, buy it in, subject to the advice of your credit analyst.

4) Regarding mortgage bonds, remember that default and prepayment are dual.? Debtors divide up into three groups: a) Very solvent, they will easily pay off their debts, and if there is an opportunity to refinance their debt, they will take it.? b) Solvent. They don’t have a lot of margin, but they can pay their debts if nothing serious goes wrong. c) We did not deserve the loan.? We will fail with high probability in the next year.

Ideally, if you want the best yield out of a bunch of consumer lending assets, you want a lot of the middle group.? Not the highest credit quality, but likely to pay off, and not so likely to prepay.? There is a hierarchy:

  • Best: pay,
  • Next best: prepay,
  • worst: don’t pay.

5) So as I learned about CMBS, I wondered about the interest only strip that many of the deals held — from my own testing, it had the credit properties of a BBB tranche at best, and a Single-B tranche at worst.? Sadly, because they had no principal to pay they were nominally rated AAA, and so the firm I worked for (not my area) crammed them into Stable value plans.? Because I had done the credit stress testing, I knew this, and resisted their use in my own portfolios.

But this is another example where accounting rules have led us afoul.? Nominal principal should be implied to “interest only” obligations.? “Principal only” obligations should have implied interest.

That’s all for now.? I will finish up in the last segment, probably on Monday.

 

Matching Assets and Liabilities Personally

Matching Assets and Liabilities Personally

An email from a reader:

I saw some of your articles on Seeking Alpha, then read through a bit of Aleph Blog.? Thanks for writing the articles, they are quite interesting.? I have seen the advice “Match Assets and Liabilities” more times than I care to count.? And your insurance example is a very clear one.? However, I have never seen a clearly worked example for an individual.? When I look at it for my own case I never quite see a clear optimality from matching assets with liabilities.? Perhaps part of the difficulty is that most individual liabilities (or at least for me) are flexible in some way (vacation – luxury or basic?).? Another issue is that my major “asset” is my salary – which produces vastly more income than my assets.? So I’d love to see you (or anyone) work out a clear example of how matching works for an individual, particularly one with more salary income than investment income.

If you care for some numbers, here is my rough case:

0) I have a significant buffer.? Green light here.

In addition to the buffer, enough cash to prefund all of the following:

1) 5,000 liability in 2 months

2) 20-30,000 liability in 6-12 months (I have some, but not total, flexibility in timing and amount)

3) 40-60,000 liability in 2-4 years (again flexibility, and hope that investment return could help increase the number)

After that are two larger expenses which I don’t have sufficient cash for.? The amounts would be significantly modified based on investment returns:

4) 100-200,000 purchase to upgrade house? in 5 to 10 years

5) In 30 years retire based solely on savings.

Let me start by mentioning two old articles:

Personal Finance, Part 11 ? Your Personal Required Investment Earnings Rate [PRIER]

Personal Finance, Part 12 ? Longevity Risk

Both concepts play a large role in what I will write here, but I am not going to repeat them here.? I’ll try to keep this simple.

Intuitively, people know that they need to match assets and liabilities, but they sometimes forget that when greed or fear emerge.? If I am planning on buying a house next year, and I have just enough for the down payment and closing costs, why do I not invest the money in stocks?? Because I might not be able to follow through on my goal if the market drops.

If I am planning on retiring in 30 years, but I am risk-averse, why shouldn’t I invest all my money in a short-term bond fund?? Because higher long-run average returns result from bearing moderate risk.? On average, maximum returns result from bearing moderate risk over long periods of time.

So, how does this calculation work?? You create two columns of numbers.? The first column is what I need to fund.? Now when I say that I am not talking about regular living expenses. I am talking about the big ticket items that are required, and that you know about now.? Plot out those cash flows, year-by year.?? For the really long cash flows, like retirement, you might want to add in an adjustment for inflation.

The second column is how much you will save each year after regular living expenses, including the excess assets that you have now.? The difference between those two columns is your net cash flow profile, and by using the IRR or XIRR function in Excel, you can figure out your PRIER.

Don’t expect to earn much more than what long Baa/BBB bonds yield now (presently 4.7%).? If the PRIER is so high that you know that you can’t earn that, then it is time to make hard choices:

  • Save more
  • Reduce goals
  • Work longer
  • Etc.

Now, as to the investment of funds to achieve those goals, it’s not that complex.? Inside five years, buy short/intermediate term bonds. 5-10 years half intermediate bonds, half risk assets, like stocks. 10-20 years should be 75% risk assets, 25% long bonds.? Beyond 20 years, 100% risk assets, or, extremely long bonds if attractive.

When I say this, I do not mean to ignore market conditions.? There are times when risk premiums are low, like now, 2000, 2007, and it does not look like risk will be rewarded on average over the next ten years — that is a time to preserve capital.? Then there are times when the market has washed out — 2002, 2009, those are times to take more risk.? Stocks are harder to measure, so if you need better guidance, look at the yields on junk bonds.

Asset allocation is a compromise between matching assets and liabilities, and examining relative advantage in the asset markets.? Sometimes stocks are better than bonds, or vice-versa.? Gold works well during times of financial repression.

In Closing

There are a number of key variables we don’t know here:

  • Future inflation
  • Likely savings
  • Asset returns in nominal or real terms

A good plan will attempt to leave some slack in case asset returns are lower than expected.? I would not assume that I could earn more than 5%/year over the long run, or maybe 2.5% after inflation.

Given what I know, this is the best answer I can give.? With more data, I could sharpen it.? But the really hard part is estimating expenses when retirement is a long way off.

Notes on the 2011 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report, Part 2

Notes on the 2011 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report, Part 2

Picking up where the last post left off:

13) So Buffett told us he has a successor lined up, but won’t tell us who, but will tell us that the successor doesn’t know that he is the successor.? Really does not seem like much of an improvement over the past, except that the CIO function is getting better defined with Todd and Ted.

14) Todd & Ted share their performance 80/20 — 80% of their own and 20% of their colleagues performance.? Seems like a fair idea, balancing the team vs the individual.

15) The regulated subsidiaries, and manufacturing, services and retailing did well. That operating income growth is what drove the year.? The turnaround at NetJets was also a help, and that was fast.

16) We are still waiting to see what problems BRK’s decentralized system can develop.? To this point, the flexibility for managers within a structure that oversees reinvestment of cash flow is admirable.

17) The economic spread of BRK businesses is significant, and I would argue, unrivaled in terms of conglomerates.? It almost makes me think that Buffett is aiming for owning an extra-productive slice of US/World GDP.? It makes acquisition criteria #1 less relevant, because if you are small and private, and want to be acquired by BRK, it means that you analyze BRK, identify the portion of it that you are most similar to, and talk to the CEO of that segment, not Buffett.

18) That brings up my view of Buffett at present.? He has changed as the amount of assets under management has grown.? The last phase for Buffett is not large cap value manager, but private equity manager / conglomerateur.? He uses the float that his insurers produce to invest in a wide number of enterprises that will produce excess returns.? He does not run a closed end fund, but runs a conglomerate.

19) Interesting to see Nebraska Furniture Mart open its third store.? Logical to do, if the experience is replicable.

20) ?We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts.? Bravo.? Would that this would be true of more companies.? When I represented a large holder of Safety Insurance, the management asked me what we wanted in terms o market disclosure.? I said that it did not matter to us, and that we would be happy if they never talked to the media/analysts, and only emitted 10-Qs and 10-Ks, even without notifying us as to timing.

21) Buffett notes that a decent number of borrowers that lost their homes did well in the crisis, because of all the money they extracted from loans.? That might be similar to a private equity manager profiting through deals to borrow where he pays himself a dividend.

22) Owning 11% of Munich Re gives Buffett additional influence over the reinsurance market.

23) Because of the need for collateral, BRK will not be making any more significant derivative bets.

24) Buffet repeats his screed that he issued to Fortune regarding bonds and gold.? I repeat my screed.? It’s all logical, Warren, but you have to think more broadly and read about the gold medal gold model.

25) It makes sense that flying to Kansas City is a better strategy than going to Omaha.? But as this becomes widely used, make sure you reserve a car early.

26) If you want to ask Buffett a question at the annual meeting, you can do it by e-mailing the following:

(In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.)

27) There will be insurance analysts at the annual meeting, and they are Cliff Gallant of KBW, Jay Gelb of Barclays Capital and Gary Ransom of Dowling and Partners.? I have a lot of respect for Gary Ransom — listen to the questions that he asks.

28) Minus & Plus: Negative change in AOCI & comprehensive income of noncontrolled interests down.? Strong CFO, net of capex, supports goodwill.

29) At for BRK’s big options: BAC in the money, GS at, GE/DOW out of the money.

30) Do parts of all asbestos liabilities eventually go to Berkshire Hathaway for reinsurance?? Who don?t they reinsure?? “The liabilities for environmental, asbestos and latent injury claims and claims expenses net of reinsurance recoverable were approximately $13.9 billion at December 31, 2011.”

I know that Buffett thinks he can earn money off of the float on these claims in excess of the implied interest rate.? But when he begins to become the preferred habitat for reinsurance, he makes BRK more volatile with respect to legal judgments.

31) “Without prior regulatory approval, our principal insurance subsidiaries may declare up to approximately $9.5 billion as ordinary dividends before the end of 2012.” And that is because only 10% of the regulatory surplus of $95 billion can be released.

32) BRK, unlike many firms, has more reasonable assumptions on DB pensions: expected return: 6.9%, discount rate 4.6%.

33) To date, share repurchases have been insignificant.? Looks like $67 million from the Statement of Shareholders Equity.

34) “On January 31, 2012, we issued an additional $1.7 billion of parent company senior unsecured notes, the proceeds of which were used to fund the repayment of $1.7 billion of notes maturing in February 2012.”

Why not pay down short-term debt?? BRK has the cash, and you state that you have an aversion to debt, particularly at the holding company level, but you are not acting like you have an aversion to debt over the last 10 years.

To Buffett: is there a level of debt at which you would be uncomfortable at the parent company, or subsidiaries?? Also, would you ever make an effort to get the AAA rating back?

35) BRK has a very diversified reserving book if you look at page 84 of the annual report — impressive.

36) I appreciate acquisition principle 6, which deal with aspects of value that accounting does not capture.? Buffett takes the right position to value those fully, because you will eventually get that value, and others will not pay up for it.

37) Buffett makes a lot out of the virtues of deferred taxes and float. He argues “they are liabilities without covenants or due dates attached to them.”? This is true, though deferred tax liabilities assume that you will make money, and will continue to grow.? Float is similar, it assumes you will underwrite well, and it would be nice if you grew.

38) Buffett says toward the end of the annual report:

There is a third, more subjective, element to an intrinsic value calculation that can be either positive or negative: the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed in the future. We, as well as many other businesses, are likely to retain earnings over the next decade that will equal, or even exceed, the capital we presently employ. Some companies will turn these retained dollars into fifty-cent pieces, others into two-dollar bills.

I’ve written about this before.? Some managements teams with skill should retain all earnings, and not pay a dividend.? Management teams without skill should act like REITs and pay out 90% of taxable income (or free cash flow).

39) Buffett says he was wrong on housing.? I think he is still wrong on housing; it will take a lot longer for this situation to normalize.? The key variable is the proportion of houses with debts exceeding a 90% LTV.? Those houses are illiquid; can’t be sold except in a short sale.

40) One final wild idea: would BRK consider buying out the corpus of AIG?? I have better small insurance acquisition targets than that, but buying out AIG would be delicious given the comments Greenberg made to Buffett back when BRK was smaller.? He was very dismissive of BRK.? Also, Buffett could fold ILFC into NetJets (or vice-versa), sell off the life companies, and impose greater discipline on the P&C underwriting.? Personally, if BRK made a bid for AIG at $32, I think Buffett could make a lot out of it, and he would not have to worry about a lot of fuss, because the major holder is the US Government.

On Social Media, and How I Built my Blog, Part 2

On Social Media, and How I Built my Blog, Part 2

I want to start this evening with Twitter.? In the past, I used to do a decent degree of posts that summarized the news in a given area.? I don’t do those anymore.? Instead, I tweet significant articles 1-3 times a day. In general, I post the title of the article, a shortened link, and a quick comment on why it is right, wrong, important, etc.? If I want the StockTwits.com investment community to see it on their general ticker, I add a $$ somewhere in my post.? If there is a company I reference, I put a $ in front of its ticker, e.g., $AIG, and those following $AIG at StockTwits see the news.

Alternatively, if I want to have a potentially broader audience see it, I could put the hashtag #AIG in the post.? Anyone using Twitter and looking for #AIG will see it.

Beyond that, when I see articles that others have tweeted, and I agree, I retweet them, which republishes the tweet with attribution of the original tweeter to my followers.? Sometimes I get retweeted.? Retweeting can become a way of making something widely known. Sometimes I reply to tweets, or others reply to mine.? There can be some good conversations.

Twitter is not the same for everyone.? Some don’t tweet, but only use Twitter like a newswire.? Some don’t follow anyone, but use it as a means of updating their fans.? Some do both; you have to weigh off the time use.? Typically, I leave Twitter off most of the day, and then do my news updates in one set of tweets; it saves time.

Now, if you don’t do Twitter, and you don’t want to look at my Twitter page on the web, there are still two ways to get my economic commentary.? For those using RSS, you can click on the following link, and you will get my tweets: http://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/120209971.rss.? If you want to do this for another Twitter page, use this article.? For those with e-mail, you can use the following utility to either tweet or receive tweets by email.

But if you are going to use Twitter a lot, I recommend that you use Tweetdeck for Twitter.

Tweetdeck allows you to organize the tweets you send, receive, get mentioned in, and private messages as well.? If you’re going to do a lot with Twitter, I recommend it.

Now I recently started using a service that links my blog, my Twitter account, and my LinkedIn account, such that when I write a new post, like this one, it posts at Twitter and LinkedIn.? Tweets go to LinkedIn as well.

Now Facebook, Twitter, Google, Yahoo, and to a lesser extent LinkedIn are becoming identity providers/gateways to using other sites, such that when you sign up for a new site, it can be simple as clicking on a Twitter link.? If you are logged into Twitter, Twitter asks you to confirm the link, and if you do, the signup is complete.

Back to the Blog

There are two aspects to choosing a theme/style for a blog.? First, you want it to look good, and fit the content that you are producing.? A minimalistic style works well for many blogs, particularly if content is simple as well.? But to the degree, that you want to come off polished, a more graphically sophisticated style can pay off.? Whatever you do, make sure you like it — that it fits the personality of what you are doing.

The second aspect of choosing a theme/style for utility.? How many columns do you want?? What do you want to put in them?? How many built in widgets/utilities do you want the theme to have?

This is what I did: I wanted three columns.? Center for main content, left for advertising, right for everything else.? Now, regarding advertising, all advertising at my blog is labeled as such.? That means most advertising deals proposed to me don’t go through when they hear my terms.

The same is true when I write any book reviews, and link to Amazon, or anytime where I have an economic interest in what I am writing about.? Full disclosure is given.? If I or my clients own a stock, and I write about it, I disclose the interest.

As for the right side of my blog, it starts with my disclaimer that tells people that I make mistakes, so do your own due diligence.? After that, my sites widgets divide up the content by time and categories.? After that comes my blogroll, links, and registration/login data, comments, trackbacks, ways to subscribe, awards, and then the odd stuff.

Just a moment on the Blogroll: I use it to identify who I read every day, without fail.? Usually that means they don’t do a lot of posts, or I would be spending too much time reading.? There are many good bloggers that I read irregularly, often because they are so prolific.? I read their best stuff when it gets featured at Abnormal Returns, which is the best linkfest for finance posts.

That brings up the more general topic of linkfests.? It is easier to start blogging by doing linkfests, pointing out what you agree and disagree with, and broadening out from there when you find your voice.

Tracking Popularity

If you want to track the popularity of your web presence, there are a lot of ways to do it, depending on what you are trying to analyze:

RSS — Feedburner

Blog — Quantcast, Google Analytics, Technorati, Alexa

Twitter — Tweet Grader

Total social media presence? — Peerindex, Klout

There’s no end to all the tracking you can do, and it is possible to waste a lot of time with it.

A little bit more about Quantcast, which is my main means of getting data on my readers.? The 3 follow screengrabs give you the summary data for my blog.? Quantcast puts a cookie on the computers that will allow it.? Without knowing exactly who the person is, it correlates other data that it knows about the person to tell me a decent amount of geographics and demographics about my audience, including who their internet service provider is.

 

LinkedIn

I’ve heard the following: Facebook is where younger people pretend they have friends.? Twitter is where older people make friends.? LinkedIn is where you go to make money.? Here’s my public profile.

Unlike at my blog, where I am relatively picky about who I place on my blogroll, I connect with most people who ask me on LinkedIn, if I can figure out any small aspect of advantage to either side.

My only tips for LinkedIn is to create as complete of a profile as you can, and don’t just take the lazy way in communicating with people by simply using default methods of contact.? Try to differentiate yourself, be respectful, and realize that many people won’t want to connect with you, and that’s fine.? Start small, and build.

Amazon

Though not thought of as social media, my book reviews from my blog that I cross-post at Amazon.com, generate approval from those seeking out good economics, business and finance books to read.? And sometimes people comment on my reviews, and vice-versa.? It could change, but at present, I’m in the Top 2000 reviewers using the New Reviewer Rank.

Wall Street All-Stars

Recently Cody Willard, a friend of mine, asked me contribute to a new site he was starting called Wall Street All-Stars, together with some writers that used to write for TheStreet.com.? What I am doing is taking old favorite posts from my blog, generally classics that are timeless, and writing 200-300 words after the end to explain how things are different now, where I was wrong or right, etc.? They are trying to make it a social site from the beginning.? If you get a chance, check out the site — it is about a month old and is a work in progress.

Summary

The internet is big, and I am not.? I don’t have a lot of resources.? But I lever what I can to make myself known, and it has made for me many friends, acquaintances and clients.? It can work for you as well; start small and add a little each month.? See what fits your personality, and where you have an edge versus other on the net, and give it your best shot.? You might end up surprised at the results you get.? Personally, it has been a surprise to me.

The Rules, Part XXI

The Rules, Part XXI

Before I start this evening, I have a request for readers, and a comment for new readers.? (Note: if you are reading this anywhere but directly at my blog, please realize that you have to come to my blog for me to hear what you are saying.? I do not read comments anywhere else but at Aleph Blog.)? First the request: I would like to test the robustness of the Impossible Dream TAA model on another country.? If any of you have data on any non-US market, which would require the following:

  • Index price series
  • Earnings series
  • Dividends series
  • And a fixed income return or yield series

Contact me, and we can discuss whether you should send me the data or not.? Monthly data would probably work best, but I am open to other periodicities.

Second, for new readers, welcome to my blog.? Why do I write this after 4 1/4 years of blogging?? May 2011 is my biggest month ever, largely because of the “Impossible Dream” pieces.

For new readers, here is what you have to understand about me: I write about a lot of different things.? I have lots of interests.? I almost named this blog “The Investment Omnivore” but didn’t, because I planned on creating a firm called Aleph Investments back in 1996.? It eventually happened — 14 years later.

So, if I don’t always write about investment strategy, or any other single topic (all crisis, all the time) please don’t get disappointed.? I write in proportion to what is of current interest, and what discoveries I have been making.

So, travel with me on this trail where I cover everything from the global macroeconomy to personal finance issues.? My goal is to help you learn to think about economic/finance/investment issues, and help you see the interconnections between markets, so that you can develop your own perspective on the markets, and not just parrot me.? (Not that many do… 😉 )

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All assets represent future goods.? The prices of assets represent the trade-off between present goods and assets.

I wrote a piece recently called Inflation Speculation.? The idea was to explain how it is difficult to save for the future in a way that will transfer today’s purchasing power to the future without diminution, particularly when you have a central bank trying to stimulate the economy through the creation of credit, and the nation as a whole is overindebted.

So, if the Fed is patting itself on the back for:

  • lowering corporate yield spreads
  • rising stock market prices

I would tell them: it is easy to change the discount rate, but hard to change the cash flows.? Yes, as you flooded the market with credit, the values of risky assets rose.? Big deal.? Most executives are smart — they still see that demand is punk, and won’t do any real creation of plant and equipment that they weren’t already planning to do.? Little new investment took place, the value of existing assets got revalued up.

When asset prices are high, it means that money today will not buy a lot of future goods.? High P/Es, low interest rates tell us that new investments will have low yields, absent some amazing transforming technology that improves productivity dramatically.

Some people will say to me, “I need more yield today.? Yields are so low.”? I say, “When yields are so low, it is time? to avoid yield and preserve capital.? The time to seek yield is when yields are high, and no one wants to part with money to lend to them.

In March of 2009, I helped to rescue the firm of a friend.? He needed cash in the midst of the crisis, and a few of us lent to him at rates exceeding 10%, with warrants, realizing that he might be bankrupt in short order.? But things turned, and not only did he survive but he thrived.? I am still receiving interest, but will likely be redeemed soon.

Maybe that’s not such a good example.? I put 40% of my congregation’s building fund into high yield and low investment grade debt in late 2008 — made up for a lot of 2008 losses.

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Think of it a different way: shares in corporations are a proxy for the future well being of the country.? When P/Es are low, the potential for capital gains is large, as is the ability to keep up with inflation.? When P/Es are high, the potential for capital gains is small, as is the ability to keep up with inflation.? Same for bond yields — better to be aggressive when rates and spreads are high, and defensive when they are low.

Thus I would tell Ben Bernanke to lay off the quantitative easing.? It has not helped.? Yes, you have pushed asset prices up, and interest rates down, but has not created any significant new economic activity.? And why should it?? Consumers are still overindebted, and 30% of those with mortgages will lose money on a sale.? The real problem was the debt overhang, and you did nothing to to address that, not that you could, or should.

Buffett once said that most people should not be glad when they see asset prices rising, because they will need to invest more in the future, and will now have to pay higher prices.? Thus times like September 2008 offer the future at a discount to those who have ready liquidity, whereas 2007 offers the future at a premium price.

To the extent that you can, commit capital when it is most needed, and avoid chasing markets up.

Regarding David Sokol, Part 3

Regarding David Sokol, Part 3

I would like to start this with the public counterarguments from Sokol’s attorney:

I am profoundly disappointed that the Audit Committee of Berkshire Hathaway would authorize the issuance of its report to the public without the care and decency to ask even a single question of Mr. Sokol. Mr. Sokol had been associated with the Berkshire Hathaway companies for 11 years. During this time, his indefatigable efforts helped create enormous value for the Berkshire shareholders. He deserved better. While I take issue with much of the Committee?s report, I briefly make the following points. If the Audit Committee had asked, it would have learned that:

  • Mr. Sokol had been studying Lubrizol for personal investment since the summer of 2010; such investments are specifically allowed by his employment agreement.
  • Mr. Buffett was told twice, not once, about Mr. Sokol?s ownership of Lubrizol stock before Mr. Buffett engaged in any discussions with Lubrizol.
  • Contrary to the Audit Committee?s statement, Mr. Sokol?s Lubrizol shares were not acquired pursuant to a ?100,000 limit order.? Rather, they were purchased as a result of several limit orders, over a period of days, at specified prices, for the day only, in order to acquire the stock at low prices. At that time, Mr. Sokol had no reason to anticipate that Mr. Buffett would have any interest whatsoever in Lubrizol.

I have known Mr. Sokol and have represented his companies in business litigation since the mid 1980s. I know him to be a man of uncommon rectitude and probity. He would not, and did not, trade improperly, nor did he violate any fair reading of the Berkshire Hathaway policies.

Okay, let’s take the three points in order:

1) Yes, Sokol may have looked at Lubrizol prior to December 2010, but he only chose to invest in Lubrizol in December 2010.? Personal investments might be allowed by his employment agreement, but not those where BRK might have an economic interest, at least not without full disclosure to the relevant powers inside BRK.? Remember, though Buffett acts as a sort of King inside BRK, even he is subject to the corporation and the committees set up by the board.

2) And that is relevant to Sokol telling Buffett twice, something that was already known.? Buffett is not the head of compliance.? Sokol needed to give full disclosure to the CFO and the Audit Committee

As the audit committee wrote:

  • ?All actual and anticipated securities transactions of Berkshire and its subsidiaries that have not been publicly disclosed should be considered material.?
  • ?Other public companies to which this prohibition is applicable include those that may be involved in a significant transaction with Berkshire. . . .?
  • ?If a . . . Covered Employee is aware that Berkshire has taken or altered a position in a public company?s securities or that Berkshire is actively considering such action, trading in any securities of such public company ... [trading in the securities] is expressly prohibited prior to the public disclosure by Berkshire of its actions . . . (or until the [employee] becomes aware that Berkshire did not take and is no longer actively considering such action).?

and wrote again:

  • ?Covered Parties who have access to confidential information are not permitted to use or share that information for stock trading purposes or for any other purpose except the conduct of the Company?s business.?
  • ?Covered Parties are prohibited from taking for themselves opportunities that are discovered through the use of corporate property, information or position without the consent of the Board of Directors of the Company.?

And further wrote:

All of these internal policies are underscored by the law of Delaware, where Berkshire Hathaway is incorporated. Under Delaware law, corporate representatives owe their company a duty of loyalty. The duty of loyalty includes? a duty of candor, which requires them to disclose to the corporation all material facts concerning corporate decisions, especially decisions from which they might derive a personal benefit. Mr. Sokol?s actions did not satisfy the duty of full disclosure inherent in the Berkshire Hathaway policies and mandated by state law. His remark to Mr. Buffett in January, revealing only that he owned some Lubrizol stock, did not tell Mr. Buffett what he needed to know. In the context of Mr. Buffett?s question how Mr. Sokol came to know Lubrizol, its effect was to mislead: it implied that Mr. Sokol owned the stock before he began considering Lubrizol as an acquisition candidate, when the truth was the reverse. A candid disclosure would have revealed the timing and size of the purchases, and the communications with Citi concerning obtaining a meeting to mutually explore interest in a potential acquisition that had preceded them. Knowledge of those facts would likely have prompted further questions by Mr. Buffett and could have allowed Berkshire Hathaway to evaluate measures that could have been taken to alleviate the problem before negotiations proceeded with Lubrizol.

Mr. Sokol?s answer to Berkshire Hathaway?s CFO, Mr. Hamburg, concerning the investment bankers similarly fell short of the degree of candor required of a corporate fiduciary, and suggests his answer to Mr. Buffett?s earlier inquiry noted above was intended to deceive.

The main idea here, as I have written about before, is that Sokol owed a duty to BRK as an employee.? Could he buy stocks of companies, as specified by his employment agreement?? Sure, but within limits which he violated.? BRK deserved the initial benefits of his work, when the data was intended for BRK and not for Sokol.

3) That the orders were not 100,000 share limit orders is not relevant to the case at hand.? Mr. Sokol, if your attorney is making such bogus arguments, either you have a really bad case, and should compromise, or you need a better attorney.

As I commented to the excellent Colin Barr, in his early piece on the topic:

I don’t think we need a new law here. If Buffett wants, he has grounds for a tort against Sokol on his misappropriation of data that rightfully belonged to BRK. I suspect Warren will just let it slip — Sokol did a lot of good for BRK, and Buffett has loyalty to managers generally. At least, that’s how it seems today. His ruthlessness for the reputation of BRK is subordinate it seems to his loyalty.

Which leaves any complaints that shareholders might have against BRK. Now, those complaints are not against Sokol, but against Buffett and his management team’s oversight of Sokol and his activities.

So, let’s be careful here. BRK is a conglomerate that owns insurers, and not an asset manager per se. The SEC and other regulators probably do not have something actionable here. But the two actions that I mentioned above could be taken in the civil courts, should Buffett or a group of shareholders decide to pursue those remedies.

Well, now we have a court case against BRK and the possibility of BRK proceeding against Sokol.? Both of my tort remedies might happen.

But What About Buffett?

I think Warren Buffett can defuse most of his troubles through a heartfelt apology at his annual meeting.? Something like, “Yes, I blundered.? I should have asked Sokol for details, but I was rushed that day.? I still firmly believe in the ethics that I have promulgated for BRK, but I slipped in not enforcing them as best I could.? I gave him the benefit of the doubt, because he was so valuable to us, and I should not have done that.”? And before that, go to those suing BRK and seek a resolution.? Your reputation would prevail, Warren.

Look, I try to be an ethical guy, but I make mistakes also.? The greater error as to deny guilt/fault when it is obvious to many.? I have confessed fault freely during the times I have blown it, and have ended up stronger for it.? Warren, the same would be true for you.? People will forgive you if you accept your responsibility in the matter.

Remedies

This is not the end of the Audit Committee?s work. Still under way are:

  • Work with Company management and legal counsel to identify and implement lessons learned from these events, including possible enhancements to its procedures.
  • Cooperation with any government investigations relating to this matter, and monitoring any developments that may emerge from them.
  • Consideration by the Board, or the Audit Committee, or such other committee as the Board may think appropriate, of possible legal action against Mr. Sokol to recover any damage the Company has sustained, or his trading profits, or both, and of whether the Company is obligated to advance Mr. Sokol?s legal fees associated with proceedings in which he is named.

They may go after Sokol.? The damages are far greater than the gain of $3 million on the takeover.? As Buffett said he cannot afford to lose any of his firm’s reputation.? Now may Buffett heed his own advice.

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