This portion goes from February 2010 to April 2010.

Probably the biggest new thing I did at the blog was start “The Rules” series.? Personally, I think all of them are best articles, because they proceed from deeply held beliefs of mine.? So I start with those:

The Rules, Part I

There is no net hedging in the market.? At the end of the day, the world is 100% net long with itself.? Every asset is owned by someone, regardless of the synthetic exposures that are overlaid on the system.

The Rules, Part II

Unless there is a natural purchaser of an exposure that one is trying to hedge, someone must speculate to a degree to allow you to hedge.? If the speculator is undercapitalized, risks to the financial system rise.

The Rules, Part III

The assumption of normality for asset price changes is wrong in virtually every financial market setting.? The proper distributions are fatter tailed and more negatively skewed.

Normality allows researchers to publish, regardless of the truth.

The Rules, Part IV

Governments that scam the asset markets (and their citizens) take all manner of half measures to defend failed policies before undertaking structural reform.? (This includes defending the currency, some asset sales, anything that avoids true shrinkage of the role of government.)? The five stages of grieving apply here.

The Rules, Part V

Massive debt issuance on a sector-wide basis will usually have a slump following it, due to a capacity glut.

The Rules, Part VI

History has a nasty tendency to not repeat, when everyone is relying on it to repeat.

History has a nasty tendency to repeat, when everyone is relying on it not to repeat.? Thus another Great Depression is possible, if not likely eventually.

When people rely on the idea that a Great Depression cannot occur again, they tend to overbuild capacity, raising the odds of another Great Depression.

The Rules, Part VII

In a long bull market, leverage builds up in hidden ways within corporations, and does not get revealed in any significant way until the bear phase comes.

The Rules, Part VIII

Illiquidity is a function of total transaction costs, which can be considered barriers to entry.

The Rules, Part IX

Attempting to control a system changes it.

The Rules, Part X

The more entities manage for total return, the more unstable the financial system becomes.

The shorter the performance horizon, the more volatile the market becomes, and the more index-like managers become.? This is not a contradiction, because volatile markets initially force out those would bring stability, until things are dramatically out of whack.

The Rules, Part XI

Could an investment bank go to junk status?

The Rules, Part XII

Growth in total factor outputs must equal the growth in payment to inputs.? The equity market cannot forever outgrow the real economy.

And that’s the end of the “rules” posts for now.? They express deeply held beliefs of mine.

My next group of posts dealt with banking reform:

• A Few Notes From the Fordham Conference
• Dumb Regulation is Good Regulation ? How to Regulate the Banks
• A Summary of What Bank Reform Should Be

Most of it comes down to getting the risk-based capital formulas right, raising capital levels, and most of all avoiding borrowing short to lend long.? The asset-liability mismatch is the core of why banking crises happen, because the liabilities run when asset levels are depressed.

The next group deals with debts and liabilities of nations and other lesser governments:

• Default, Inflation, Higher Taxes ? Choose One
• Ignore anyone who tells you that debt levels don?t matter.
• A Question of Cultural Failure
• A Question of Cultural Failure (II)
• Of Credit Ratings, Sovereign Risk and Semi-Sovereign Risk
• More on Sovereign Risk and Semi-Sovereign Risk
• The Virtue of a Big Bang
• The Logic of Shared Pain
• Promises, Promises (Deals with the huge entitlement promises all over the world)
• The Whole Earth is Owned; Debts Net Out to Zero

Debt-based economic systems are inherently inflexible.? Governments that make long-term promises without pre-funding them scam their taxpayers, and those to whom they make promises.? All solutions are ugly once the willingness of a government to pay on its promises is questioned.

What is Liquidity? (IV)

My point is that you can?t take illiquid assets and make them liquid.

Moat, Float, Growth

Warren Buffett labors to preserve the company he has built, so that it can last far longer than he will.? An impossible task, but what is Buffett if not one that does things far beyond what most of us can do?

In Defense of the Rating Agencies ? V (summary, and hopefully final)

I never did go on CNBC for this.? They figured out what I told them: “This wouldn’t make for good television.? It’s too complex.”? But it does come down to my five realities:

• Somewhere in the financial system there has to be room for parties that offer opinions who don?t have to worry about being sued if their opinions are wrong.
• Regulators need the ratings agencies, or they would need to create an internal ratings agency themselves, or something similar.? The NAIC SVO is an example of the latter, and proves why the regulators need the ratings agencies.? The NAIC SVO was never very good, and almost anyone that worked with them learned that very quickly.
• New securities are always being created, and someone has to try to put them on a level playing field for creditworthiness purposes.
• There is no way to get investors to pay full freight for the sum total of what the ratings agencies do.
• Ratings can be short-term, or long-term, but not both.? The worst of all worlds is when the ratings agencies shift time horizons.

This era encompasses August through October 2009, as the market rallied.

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Avoiding the Tail Wagging the Dog

We need to regulate gambling in out country, and that means shutting down many derivative markets.

Earnings, Analyst Estimates, and Estimating Future Prospects

How to differentiate between future estimates and past results.

Waiting for the Death of the Chicago School, and the Keynesian School also, Redux

Points out the impotence of the Chicago and Neoclassical schools.? It is still true today.

On Life Settlements

Explains why agents should extra-cautious if they are thinking about buying life insurance policies in the illiquid secondary market.

The Dominance and Size of the Federal Reserve

The Fed is too large and powerful.? How to reduce it?

Fusion Solution: The Stable Value Fund Guide to Commodity ETF Management

A truly classic article that anticipated what some ETF providers would do, seeking out the best opportunities rather than trying to float at spot.

Alternative Investments, Illiquidity, and Endowment Management

A definitive article on the asset-liability mismatch involved in university endowment management.

In Defense of the Rating Agencies ? III

In Defense of the Rating Agencies ? IV

The rating agencies are fair dealers with occasionally bad models.

Plan for Failure

Don’t think about the present, think about what that the future is likely to be, and how you disagree with it.

Toward a New Theory of the Cost of Equity Capital

Toward a New Theory of the Cost of Equity Capital, Part 2

Replace modern portfolio theory with a model based on contingent-claims pricing.

Risks, Not Risk

Risk does not exist in abstract.? Rather, we face specific risks.? Wise managers evaluate the risks versus the rewards.

The Good ETF

Good ETFs are:

• Small compared to the pool that they fish in
• Follow broad themes
• Do not rely on irreplicable assets
• Storable, they do not require a ?roll? or some replication strategy.
• not affected by unexpected credit events.
• Liquid in terms of what they repesent, and liquid in what they hold.

Pension Apprehension

On why pension plans were likely to run into the difficulties they are presently in.

On Bond Investing, ETFs, Indexes, and the Current Market Environment

Why bond ETFs and index funds are more complex than those dealing with stocks.

This era encompasses May through July 2009, as the market rallied.? As usual, I sold too soon, and did not benefit from the continuing rally.

Farewell to John Davidson

This is my only short story at my blog, about an honest insurance executive in the credit crisis.? I know many insurance executives like his adversary, but few like him.

Choose Two: Principal Protection, Liquidity, and Above-Market Returns

The main idea is simple: you can get two out of three at best.

The Zero Short

Shorting is a tactical discipline and not a structural discipline.? Don’t try to short stock to zero, or near it.

The First Priority of Risk Control

Can you assure liquidity under all reasonable possible futures, and a few unreasonable futures?

?Just Gimme the Answer, Will Ya??

Do you want to understand the situation fully, or do you want a soundbite answer to your question?

Problems with Constant Compound Interest

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (2)

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (3)

No tree grows to the sky.? Nothing can grow at above average growth rates forever.

Do you Want to be Proud, or do you Want to Make Money?

Humility is a core asset for investment managers.

Loss Severity Leverage

Structured securities have a higher probability of “losing it all.”? Also, the medium-sized insurer mentioned did not go insolvent, but did have to get a cash infusion from some other insurers that had joined with them into a greater entity.

Fruits and Vegetables Versus Assets in Demand (2)

Fresh produce is what it is, a perishable commodity, where quantity and quality are positively correlated, and pricing is negatively correlated.? Financial assets don?t perish rapidly, quantity and quality are negatively correlated, and pricing is often positively correlated to the quantity of assets issued, since the demand for assets varies more than the supply.? Whereas, with fresh produce, the supply varies more than the demand.

The Benefits of Dumb Regulation

In short, why regulators have to have some spine, and just say no to fancy ideas.? Implied in this is that state regulation of insurance, dumb as it is, is more effective than Federal regulation of banks.

It Takes Two to Tango

Why simple explanations of market phenomena are frequently wrong.

Sorry, Doctor Shiller, not Everything can be Hedged

“The concept that everything can be hedged assumes deep markets everywhere, which is not the case.”

Toward a New Concept of Asset Allocation

An attempt to flesh out what a better concept on asset allocation would look like.

To Control Bubbles, the Fed Must First Control Itself

Why the Fed should be the systemic risk regulator.

The Equity Premium is No Longer a Puzzle

Why stocks are slightly better than bonds in the long, long run.

Central Bank Independence is Overrated

If the independence of the Central Bank is never used to resist that desires of the politicians to goose, then that is not independence, but a sham.

This era covered February-April 2009, the nadir and the recovery.? What a time.

Financial Versus Actuarial Models of Risk

Cashflow-based models are superior to complex models relying on unstable correlations.

Who Do You Work For?

Do you act on what gives you immediate advantage, or do you try to act on what is best for all?

On Animal Spririts

An essay on Keynes lame idea that businessmen are irrational, when it is reasonable to assume that they take risk when it is warranted, and they don’t when it is not.

The Bane of Broken Balance Sheets

An essay at the nadir of the crisis trying to point out the problems when so many entities have borrowed too much.

They Voted For Change, They Got Bush-Plus

A simple summary of the Obama Administration.? Still true today.

Translation: We Really, REALLY, Hate You Guys!!

Explains why China can’t destroy the US, but the US could harm China.

Sell Stocks, Buy Corporate Bonds (II)

Good timing for anyone that wanted to buy high yield bonds, though it was a great time to buy stocks also.

Nonidentical Twins: Solvency and Liquidity, Redux

Points out why solvency and liquidity are closely related, and why we should be doubtful when someone says, “This is a liquidity problem, not a solvency problem.”

Ancient and Modern: The Retirement Tripod

Explains why we should be distrusting of modern retirement systems.

?Do Half?

Explains how to mange assets wisely when one is less than certain.

Book Review: Trend Following

I lock horns with Michael Covel, and much as I try to be reasonable over five articles, he treats me as a Cramer-wannabe.

• Two Boxes. Sixty Pounds. Tiny Type. What Are We? (The Answer)
• To What Degree Were AIG?s Operating Insurance Subsidiaries Sound? (Epilogue)

This was the paper that had me talk before the SIGTARP staff.? Buffett read it, and from reports, liked it.? The New York Times commented on it.

November 2008 through January 2009 was a rough period.? The markets were in chaos.? My best posts I will categorize for your benefit:

Criticism of Government and Central Bank Policy

• The Humility of Realism
• The Humility of Realism, Redux
• Bailouts Must Be Odious
• Failure to Admit Failure
• Issuing Debt for as Long as Our Republic Will Last
• The More Things Change, The More They Remain The Same
• The Progress of Debt
• A New Goal For TARP Money: Create Mutual Banks
• The Humility of Realism ? II
• Ten Takeaways from the Greenspan Years
• Against Bank Nationalization

As the crisis hit, the government was not willing to reconcile bad debts, but insisted on on putting off pain.? Though Depression was staved off, it came with a price, which includes a future depression.

The Crisis

• What is a Depression?
• ?There doesn?t seem to be a fundamental reason why.?
• Broken?
• Start a Rating Agency, Why Don?t You?
• Financial History is Valuable
• Spot the Three Currency Regimes

As many grasped at straws, the crisis was best understood as too much debt, and because that was not a part of the neoclassical economists’ playbook, they floundered, having no idea of why the crisis was occurring.

Investment Ideas

• Sell Stocks, Buy Corporate Bonds
• The Occasional Seemingly Free Lunch
• GE Does Not Bring Good Things For Your Life
• What To Do?
• Momentum in the S&P 500
• Hidden Credit Risk in Currency Funds
• A Different Look at Industry Momentum
• A Different Look at Industry Momentum ? II

Many good ideas for how to play the market in a depressed state.? The call to buy junk bonds was a very good call.

Other Topics:

The Biggest, Baddest Bubble of Them All

Why entitlements are the weak link in the US economy.

Fair Value Accounting ? It Is What It Is

Why fair value accounting if properly done, is the best method for accounting.

Public Pension Plans Doubling Down

Public pension plans had a naive faith in the power of equities.

Waiting for the Death of the Chicago School, and the Keynesian School also

Most economists don’t have their heads screwed on straight.? It is only a matter of time before the view of economists change to more of an Austrian or Minsky perspective.? Oh yeah, and the Santa Fe Institute…

The Sterility of Stability

Past economic relationships disappoint.

Liquidity Management is the First Priority of Risk Management

Very basic stuff, because cash flow is the life of a business.

Bicycle Stability Versus Table Stability ? II

Real stability means that you don’t have to take any action in order to preserve value.

Creating a Black Swan

Got a lot of flak from this piece, but I still stand behind it.? Black swans are created by those that think a financial trend can continue indefinitely.

August-October 2008 was a tough era to blog in as the crisis broke.? It was the height of popularity for my blog, I haven’t had that level of readership since.

Rather than go chronologically, this era lends itself to being topical.

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The Crisis

Nonidentical Twins: Solvency and Liquidity

How Much Can the US Government Guarantee?

Oppose The Treasury?s Bailout Plan

We Need Oversight, and Compensation to the Taxpayers

Don?t Rush It

Let the Current Bailout Die

What A Fine Mess You Have Gotten Us Into

Oppose the Current Bailout Plan, Redux

I tried to fight the bailout.? I do not accept the idea that the bailout helped, regardless of losses of profits, because it skews future actions of those who think they will be bailed out.

The Aftermath of the Crisis

Blame Game

Blame Game, Redux

Blame Game III

There are many to blame from the crisis, including me.? I don’t go in for simple crisis explanations; the crisis was societal, global even.

Market Dynamics

The Fundamentals of Market Bottoms

The Fundamentals of Market Bottoms, Part 2

The Fundamentals of Market Bottoms, Part 3 (Final)

The Fundamentals of Residential Real Estate Market Bottoms

These pieces finished off a series of four for me.? Market dynamics are tough, and most people don’t get them.

Fannie & Freddie

A Way to Make Money Off of Fannie and Freddie

Margin of Safety

Another Look At Fannie and Freddie

If you listened to me, you made money off of the failure, and avoided losses as well.? No joke; I hit that one out of the park, Bill Miller!

Monetary Policy

Inflation for Goods Prices, Attempted Inflation for Housing-Related Assets, but Sorry, No Inflation for Wages

Liquidity for the Government and no Liquidity for Anyone Else

FOMC: Forking Out More Currency

Entering the Endgame for Monetary Policy

A Note on the Greenspan Legacy

NOT Born and Bred in the Briar Patch

The Fed continued its “brain dead” policy, until the crisis broke, and then began to catch up.

Accounting

Analyzing Growth in Firm Value

Accounting Rules Do Not Affect Cash Flows

Illiquid Assets Financed by Liquid Liabilities (Or, why were you playing near the cliff?)

IFRS: Incomparable Flexible Reporting Standards.

A variety of articles dealing with understanding accounting, from a man who has not had a single accounting course in his life, but had to do financial reporting for 12 years.

Stable Value and Money Market Funds

A Proposal for Money Market Funds, and More

A Maximum of One Year of Interest Lost

There are alternative ways of assuring a stable net asset value.

Miscellaneous Financials

Puncturing Pensions

Residential Real Estate Will Not Have A ?V? Bottom

The Banking Industry Should Learn from the Insurance Industry

Investing in Financial Stocks is Tough

Too Bad for Preferred Stock

Industries Don?t Learn From Each Other on Credit Issues

Financials are tough because there is nothing that stands behind them, except for willingness to pay.

Big Think Pieces

Financial Bloggers: The Conscience of Wall Street?

Finance When You Can, Not When You Have To

Capitalism <> Greed ? Capitalism = Service

Rethinking Insurable Interest

Good pieces all.? Read them at your convenience.? They will still be valuable 50 years from now.

This segment takes us through the period May-July of 2008, as the crisis slowly built to the peak of its cashflow deficit, with many saying that it was a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis.? Anyway here is my best from that era:

What is Liquidity? (Part II)

Goes through the three definitions of liquidity, and shows how they are related, particularly when liquidity is scarce, even though they are different phenomena when liquidity is plentiful.

Why Do I Blog?

Many are writing about this topic now, and this is what I wrote about it then, unbidden by others.? From the piece:

Blogging is in many ways tougher than being a young journalist. A blogger starts with no audience, whereas a young journalist has an audience from the publication. The young journalist will be guided in what to write about by his superiors, and will automatically get edited. The blogger has to figure out what he can adequately say, and whether anyone really wants to read him. The young journalist will have discipline imposed on him, whereas most successful bloggers have to develop their own discipline ? one consistent with their posting style and frequency. Blog audiences decay rapidly with lack of attention, and there is a lot of competition to be heard. Journalists succeed or fail as a group, and the individual journalist does not have a lot of effect on that.

Seven-Plus Years of Trading for the Broad Market Portfolio

Losing Money is Part of the Game (Part I)

Losing Money is Part of the Game (Part II)

Average? I Like Average, if It?s My Average. (Part I)

Average? I Like Average, if It?s My Average. (Part II)

My Best Investments Over the Last 7+ Years

Concluding the Current Portfolio Management Series

The seven articles listed above involved a lot of work, explaining how I mostly made money on my portfolio, but how I also had my share of losses, en route? to doing very well over 7+ years.? I am still managing money the same way today, with reasonable success versus the market.
Blowing the Bubble Bigger

My summary of Kindleberger?s paradigm:

• Loose monetary policy
• People chase the performance of the speculative asset
• Speculators make fixed commitments buying the speculative asset
• The speculative asset?s price gets bid up to the point where it costs money to hold the positions
• A shock hits the system, a default occurs, or monetary policy starts contracting
• The system unwinds, and the price of the speculative asset falls leading to
• Insolvencies of those that borrowed to finance the assets
• A lender of last resort appears to end the cycle

Facilitating the Dreams of Politicians

This wasn’t my first article on municipal pensions.? I think the first one was three years earlier at RealMoney, and I had a few a Aleph Blog.? The greatest way that municipalities cheated on their finances was through underfunding their pensions.

Abandon the Playbook; Adopt the Global Playbook; Adjust the Playbooks for Valuations

The idea here is that the old ideas for industry cycles should be abandoned, because we no longer live in a world where the US is all that matters.? We need to look at global demand, not US demand.? The same for supply.

Ten Notes on Crude Oil: The Fixation

Surprisingly, this is the most read article on my blog.? I could not have predicted this, but with oil prices going through the roof, my post that was neutral on the price action was hot for the market as a whole.? As I re-read it, I see why it was a great article, taking into account a wide number of disparate views.? This is close to blogging at its best.

Avoid Debt Unless it is to Purchase an Appreciating Asset

There are a lot of dopey opinions on saving, particularly from macroeconomists. ? Debt is a curse, unless the opportunity is compelling.

Saving at young ages sets the tone for the rest of life.? The lifecycle saving hypothesis (of Milton Friedman) is wrong, because most people don?t possess the discipline to switch between being a borrower to being a saver.? Many do it, but not the majority. I saved money when I was a grad student, though most of my colleagues did not.

The Four Stages of Investment Knowledge

This is true in many disciplines.? Seeming knowledge gives way to disappointment, leading to greater knowledge in the long run.

Rethinking Comparable Worth

Sadly, one one of my most important pieces, explaining why the developed world should in general should expect shrinking incomes in the face of an expanding global capitalist system.

Fannie, Freddie, and the Financing Methods of Last Resort

Anticipates what will happen in a few months.

General Motors = General Malaise

I predict that GM will die, and not for the first time.

Buy Agency Mortgage Bonds

I don’t often offer categorical buy signals but the few I do offer are typically good.

Thinking About Dividends

Are dividends the unique way to tilt portfolios?? I don’t think so.

The Nature of a Crowded Trade

Holding an asset with a short time horizon for disposal is a crowded trade, if many others have a similar idea.

You Can Sue, But You Won?t Win

More on the Financial Insurers — losses were inevitable.

The Fundamentals of Market Bottoms, Part 1

Bottoms and tops are different, what can I say?

Covering Covered Bonds

Covered bonds were cool for a moment in the US, and I covered it.

What are the Limits? Are there Limits?!

With deficits that are low by today’s standards, this piece was pessmistic.

Rereading old articles is bittersweet.? I get a variety of internal reactions:

• You wrote about that again?! Who cared about that?
  
• Boy, you really blew that one!
• Another news post?! How many links can you cram into a post?? Anyone who reads all of that will learn a lot, but who has that much time?? (At least you summarized it, so some could avoid reading it…)
• Nice job!

Well, onto the fifth quarter of the Aleph Blog, February through April 2008:

All or Nothing at All

I had some ?down time? today (taking my third child to junior college), when I could sit and think about some of the issues in the markets, when all of a sudden, a weird correlation hit me.? Similarities between:

• The near bankruptcy of the Equitable back in the early 90s.
• Neomercantilism
• The relationship of Moody?s and S&P to MBIA and Ambac.

This was a creative post that connected the dangers of the overextension of credit — debts growing at an unsustainable rate.? It doesn’t end well for the creditor and debtor, but the creditor typically gets the worst of it.

The Boom-Bust Cycle, Applied to Many Markets

The funny story of making money by resisting trends.? Main point: use your head and look through the windshield, not the rear-view mirror.

That?s my thought for the evening.? Analyze the motives of other players in your markets, and don?t assume that the current state of the market is an equilibrium.? Equilibria in economics are phantoms.? They exist in theory, but not reality.? Better to ask where new entrants or exits will come from.

Split the Financial Guarantors in Two? You Can?t Do That.

This was the first of many pieces arguing against fraudulent conveyance, which was attempted, but thwarted in the courts.? Someone send Sean Dilweg to a course in contract law.

In Some Ways, The Municipal Bond Market Was Asking For It

This was another case of asset-liability mismatch.? Lenders want to lend short, and borrowers want to borrow long. In this case, auction rate preferreds internalized the mismatch, subject to auction failure, which never happens, right?? There were also hedge funds that tried to exploit the yield differential, borrowing short and lending long.

A disaster waiting to happen…

A Small Victory Lap on CPDOs

I fought these since their initial issuance.? They did not make economic sense, and the rating agencies had never previously allowed for a martingale strategy to be a safety factor.? Oh, and things got much worse from here.? Losses were large.

Is the PEG Ratio a Valid Concept?

I expected the answer to be no, but it was yes.? I learned a lot in the process; encourages me to be more open-minded.

The Problem of Publishing in the Social Sciences

There are many reasons research in social science tends to be skewed and this article hits many of them.

Micro-stability versus Macro-instability

Greenspan was famous for suggesting that derivatives made the markets safer.? He missed that most derivatives are risk-shifters, not risk-eliminators.? Derivatives stabilized companies at a price of adding basis ans counterparty risks.

Buy Muni Bonds

Great call, when the market was dislocated.

What Should the Spread on a Corporate Bond Be?

Humorous piece on bond pricing, with six blind men analyzing the elephant, and one sighted guy reluctant to explain why they are right sometimes, but wrong most of the time.

The Value of a Balance Sheet

Humiliation, but I turn it into an opportunity to learn, and avoid future errors.

Investment Banks Are Priced Like Bermuda Reinsurers

A quick comparison between an industry that is usually admired, and one that is always despised.? The similarities will surprise!

A Social View of the FOMC

This piece took a lot of work, and got a lot of attention.? Someday, I’d like to put out another.? Enjoy the easy comparisons from one large table that explains in detail the accomplishments and foibles of FOMC members.

Dissent at the FOMC

After a rare double dissent, I analyzed how common dissents are at the FOMC.? Note to Bernanke: your power has grown since then.

Federal Office for Oversight of Leverage [FOOL]

Well, what could you expect from a post on April 1st? The sad thing is, it came into being, and is staffed with people who really don’t get the concept of systemic risk, or where it comes from.? Worst yet, they don’t control the Fed, which creates most of our systemic risk.

The Financings of Last Resort

Your firm needs money, but conditions for financing are unappealing.? What can you do?

Nerds and Barbarians

Understanding two stereotypes for hedge fund managers.

Problems with Tax Reform

A really important piece that argues that tax rates aren’t the important factor, it is the definition of income.

Book Reviews: Manias, Panics, and Crashes, and Devil Take the Hindmost

Two excellent books that everyone should read.

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That’s all for now.? Hope you enjoy a few of the articles.