Post 1800

So, what do I write about at the Aleph Blog?  I write about a lot of things.  That’s a strength, and a weakness.  A weakness, because not everyone cares about a lot of things and if I shift to cover an area that is unusual, readers may not care.

It’s a strength, in the same sense that most of the best athletes could do well at a wide number of games.  I follow a wide number of themes in the financial markets and economics.  I like to think that I bring more perspective to a wide umber of issues because:

  • I have been trained in neoclassical economic theory, and I reject it.
  • I have been trained in modern portfolio theory, and I reject it.
  • I’ve worked in most areas of the financial markets, and have seen similar events happen in different markets.
  • I have quantitative skills, but I have spent a lot of time of economic history.
  • Having practiced as an actuary, I have additional skills analyzing liability structures, which are underanalyzed.

My perspective is different.  I don’t expect you to agree with me, because some of my views are “out there,” and I know that when I write it.  I sometimes write things knowing that there is no way that these will be adopted, absent major changes to society.  I write those, knowing that radical change is not impossible, and when change happens, they will need sensible guidelines.

So what have I written about?  From my categories:

Macroeconomics (898)
Stocks (814)
Bonds (770)
Portfolio Management (685)
Value Investing (463)
public policy (384)
Fed Policy (374)
Insurance (356)
Real Estate and Mortgages (354)
Structured Products and Derivatives (340)
Speculation (292)
Quantitative Methods (285)
Personal Finance (218)
Asset Allocation (172)
Book reviews (169)
Currencies (158)
Industry Rotation (133)
Blog News (123)
Ethics (117)
Accounting (113)
Pensions (109)
Banks (103)
General (100)
Academic Finance (82)
Best Articles (44)
Christianity (19)
The Rules (17)
Home Schooling (14)
Tweets (14)

I write about economics, stocks and bonds. That’s me.  I want to describe what is going on and how it affects those holding fixed claims (bonds), and variable claims (stocks).

After that, I write about portfolio management and value investing — how do we manage the assets that we own?

The next group is the guts of the market: how does government and Fed policy affect things?  How do insurance, real estate, and derivatives affect our lives?

Beyond those, I write about many things, and I appreciate that you read me.  Your time is valuable; thanks for reading me.

My Performance

My greatest fear when starting up my firm was that after having a great 10-year run with my own assets (and for an employer), that I would go cold when I started managing assets for others.  That is what has happened, with underperformance of 9%+ versus the S&P 500 over the last 16 months.  This is my worst sustained performance over the last 20 years.

I don’t think my methods are poor, nor am I planning on changing.  Every investment method goes through dry times; I have to live through this.

So what will I do?  I will persist in the strategies that have done so well for me  over the last 20 years.  I will continue to do value investing.

I don’t know that it will work, but I think it will.  Value investing is the reliable weak signal amid a lot of investment noise.

And so I act and invest.  My time is coming, and thanks for reading me.