Category: Blog News

Why I LOVE Blogging

Why I LOVE Blogging

Abnormal Returns (one, two), The Reformed Broker, and Felix Salmon all opined on the health of the Financial Blogosphere today.? It’s dying.? It’s not dying.

As an actuary, I don’t have to be so strident.? Death is a normal thing for fallen men and their creations.? The only question is how rapidly they die.? A good experiment would be to list all of the economics & finance bloggers publishing in 2007 that are still publishing in 2012, at least once a month.

If you are a blogger on economic, financial or investment topics, you have to have something burning within you in order to post regularly.? If you don’t have some reason to speak, you won’t post much.? After all, no one makes much money off of pure blogging.? My blogging buys food for my family for two months of the year, no more.

Think of forks in the road.? Many stop blogging because:

  • Life goals change
  • There are few rewards, and many annoying commenters
  • Regulatory standards stop them
  • They don’t gain traction and give up
  • They get lots of negative feedback, and give up
  • They go professional
  • The markets shift — they blogged during the crisis, and don’t know how to blog in normalcy, or vice versa.? I have my share of detractors from both eras.
  • They run out of things to say.

I was once part of the RealMoney Columnist Conversation, and unlike most, I would dispense post-long comments, which the editors would occasionally republish as posts, which they never did for anyone else that i know.? If you have something that is valuable to say, people will listen to you.

As for Felix’s take on blogging, I am somewhat sympathetic, but my sense is that things are not the same but are on average the same.? I don’t see a lot of new stars.

All that said, though I like some corporate bloggers, like Felix, for the most part I still like those who are independent and express their own views by nature, because they aren’t getting paid by someone else.

The Future Belongs to Those with Patience, Part 2

The Future Belongs to Those with Patience, Part 2

This occurred to me today, and so I want to toss it out as an idea, even if I never get to work with it.? What percentage of stocks are covered by 13F filings?? I bet it is pretty high.

Here’s my idea: using the 13F filings, we segment holders into traders (“weak hands”) and investors (“strong hands”), based off their level of turnover.? If my ideas are right, the stocks held by the “strong hands” investors will do better over time.

For anyone with access to an easily accessible version of a 13F database, this is a project I would be willing to take on.? If you have interest, e-mail me.? Thanks.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Note: Tomorrow (Saturday) I will be on WBAL Radio at 8:30 AM Eastern with local radio host Jimmy Mathis, talking about the markets.? If you are up, they do stream the broadcast.

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Six Weeks of Green: Stocks Quietly Creep Higher http://t.co/XYxAfaOj Markets move up at half the speed they go down http://t.co/d09QUp8y $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Premiums dominate in HY CEFs & loan participation CE funds, even the investment grade funds r seeing discounts fade. Too hot. $$ #yieldlust Aug 17, 2012
  • T. Rowe Price Small Cap Fund Veteran Preston Athey to Exit in 2014 http://t.co/Y6BRCnmW One of $TROW ‘s finest takes a less active role $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm?s Equity Assets http://t.co/5ESGLVdl Makes me bearish on gold. Bad mkt could b a forced seller $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • What should I do with my money now? http://t.co/xqXtnPqb My view is this, if acctg is conservative, buy stocks P/TB < 1.5, P/E < 10 $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Usage: That was a real Facebook of an IPO! 2) We really Facebooked the IPO buyers! 3) Avoid this IPO, it’s going 2b a real Facebook! $FB $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Facebook puts follow-on on ice http://t.co/d2CMGLvl Avoiding adding insult to injury. Lousy IPOs in the future will be called “Facebooks” $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • It’s usually a bad sign when locals are selling, and foreigners buying. How do foreigners have more knowledge? $$ http://t.co/mhOHunFj Aug 16, 2012
  • Man overrides machine to tackle low bond yield risk http://t.co/IDTSByMr Momentum isn’t everything w/bonds, eventually mean reversion. $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • Whenever you mention CDS spreads, could you do us the favor of citing that spreads bonds are trading at? You are, aft? http://t.co/o3StHaG0 Aug 15, 2012
  • You Are Now About to Witness the Strength of Street Knowledge http://t.co/jV4bxWc4 Having a revenue model is an aid to stock performance $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Even Amid the Current Turmoil, Stocks Still Beat Bonds http://t.co/fqTWnM6g Issuing this opinion: a crowded trade http://t.co/X6KGWp5b $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil http://t.co/gQpc19Hz Pressure for prices to fall amid ETF-based hoarding $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Junk-Bond Buyers Plot Escape in Debt Gap http://t.co/lEVYDv9f Smart money moving up in liquidity & down in yield. Junk rally continues $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • A Green Light for Car Loans http://t.co/VqfWA4AK Banks, Finance Firms Boost Auto Lending; Fed Survey Finds Easier Standards $$ #moredebt Aug 14, 2012
  • Stocks: The ‘Safety’ Dance http://t.co/N9CNg4aO Defensive stock valuations high relative to cyclicals. Graph: http://t.co/Q17aYeiU $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • As Corporate-Bond Yields Sink, Risks for Investors Rise http://t.co/WeET5vWD Maybe. Debt-deflation has a funny way of persisting $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

Rest of World

 

  • Mexico’s big oil problem http://t.co/e3b6V19s Yrs of abuse &non-investment by PEMEX, milked by the govt, oil production declining fast $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Iranian Currency Traders Find a Haven in Afghanistan http://t.co/Bcw8l03A Sorta fitting that Afghans make $$ breaking sanctions on Iran $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Rate Cuts on the Cards for Norway and Sweden http://t.co/REReXdiF We need a new Gresham’s Law on Monetary Policy. See in next tweet $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Bad monetary policy drives out good monetary policy when large countries inflate, & exporters in small countries complain about losses $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • You can say that again $$ RT @saraeisenFX: More signs of worsening credit quality in China http://t.co/KLAApyBy Aug 17, 2012
  • Aramco Says Virus Attacks Network, Oil Output Unaffected http://t.co/o0p8Rb94 What shall we call this? The Cold Techno-War? $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • The only way out for China: Andy Xie http://t.co/ROaF0C2S Problems only going2get worse as long as government interferes $$ #chinacrash Aug 15, 2012
  • Beijing Loan Guarantee Firm Teeters on the Edge http://t.co/XtapRo8W A sign of things to come, and how will China deal with the defaults? $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • China?s money outflow continues in July http://t.co/xpMby8WI The wealthy of China send capital abroad, so that they can survive anything $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • German Provinces Struggle to Lure Skilled Workers http://t.co/yN61QTaJ Europe can find work, but will have to find it in Germany $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Correlation Breakdown as Proxies for Risk Boost Aussie, Kiwi http://t.co/4zQMFGQd Countries w/good $$ policy draw funds, harming exporters Aug 14, 2012
  • Africa’s pirates have demands – and letterhead, too http://t.co/GKbc4Jcm Not intimidation, merely “making you an offer you can’t refuse” $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • Mursi Sidelines Egypt?s Top Generals Amid Power Struggle http://t.co/KAOWGQdE Push is coming to shove; Military vs Muslim Brotherhood $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

US Economy

 

  • The case for supply-side tax cuts http://t.co/EYfStM7t Tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next 3 years by nearly 3% $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • London Firings Seen Surging as Finance Firms Add NY Jobs http://t.co/D0to5HSo Finance jobs grow where the regulations are lowest $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • 5 years forward, five year inflation: http://t.co/q98ZknDn Seems to top out @ 2.7% recently, 3% longer-term http://t.co/rqFkN26r $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • Farmland Prices Surge Across the Plains States http://t.co/we6hZAcP Poss causes: hi grain prices & widespread use of crop insurance $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • The Downside of a Recovery in Housing http://t.co/BfzmDdYr “potential uptick in inflation measures, of which housing is a big component” Aug 16, 2012
  • Will births come back with the economy? http://t.co/sYqJjBXm Yes, people have more children when they are optimistic about the future $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Wrong: What if baby boomers don’t live forever? http://t.co/kRLnHqrA Even if mortality does not improve @ prior rate, makes little $$ diff Aug 15, 2012
  • Mathematically Possible http://t.co/ziQNoQx4 Correcting the false assumptions of Obama’s tax gurus | Govt in DC is always dishonest $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • Clarity of communication is not the Fed’s problem. If you have bad policy, it doesn’t matter how you present it. http://t.co/C27MJ2QX Aug 13, 2012

 

Pensions

 

  • Unions protest Democrats at Illinois State Fair http://t.co/uU7twsOK Govt workers learn hard reality. Benefits not protected by ERISA + $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Which means underfunded benefits may never b paid at the level promised. Taxes can’t b raised enough to make it work, either. Sorry $$ 🙁 Aug 18, 2012
  • @mckpartners There r 3 parties not getting blame here aside from the standard ones: 1) accountants that dreamed up lousy funding rules + $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @mckpartners 2) Actuaries didn’t pushback on investment assumptions & 3) Union negotiators thot they were smart trading salary 4 pensions $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • Annals of dubious research, 401(k) loan-default edition http://t.co/LDLsN0f1 401k loan defaults r 2% of what widely-cited study claims $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

GSE Bailout Change

 

  • Fannie?s and Freddie?s Forgettable Friday http://t.co/kvfNkBcI Investment whose value is dependent on unknowable government policy $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • GSEs expected to unload delinquent loans after Treasury change http://t.co/2g7tiIxI Portolios to shrink through prepays/writeoffs 15%/yr $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Anybody have guesses as2what $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAT $FMCCK should be worth? Pfds ~ 2 coupon pmts? Common stock ~ 0? Prob(going-away present)? $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Treasury to wind down GSEs faster, only to be replaced with (insert solution here) http://t.co/mAtyKpHs Future of the GSEs in question $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Treasury to Amend Terms of Fannie, Freddie Bailout http://t.co/iZcCdXML Cancels 10% div, all profits go2 Tsy. Comm stocks down 20-25% $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Fannie, Freddie Pfds Sink As Treasury Amends Bailout Terms http://t.co/3pGEjsrF Down 52-55% today. That was the crunch you heard $$ Aug 17, 2012

 

Municipal Bonds

 

  • Bondholders, insurers challenge San Bernardino bankruptcy http://t.co/WE2vRb6e They allege SB finances are not in a state of emergency $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • That really stinks, can’t comment there also $$ RT @Tubulus: @munilass I think your head will slam into your desk – http://t.co/8G1e0plE Aug 16, 2012
  • The Untold Story of Municipal Bond Defaults http://t.co/2UKKOIUA Trivial thots from researchers @ NYFed, my comment: http://t.co/EP5aUq29 $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Looking for Higher Yields? Try ‘Junky’ Municipal Bonds http://t.co/qo9DfZKt Safer than corporate junk, but less liquid. Be careful $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Apple judge: ?I see risk? and 7 more newsmaker quotes http://t.co/wyBoToT7 Notable quotes in the business world $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • The Valley of Free Food: How One Firm Caters to California’s High Tech Giants http://t.co/cijDNgdC Companies r armies; travel on stomach $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • Texas Seeks Seizure of Life Partners http://t.co/MWofrEv2 ‘Bout time. Life settlements should b illegal; no insurable interest $LPHI $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • More trial, less error: An effort to improve scientific studies http://t.co/i2PLAD5h Why I am skeptical of much biometric research $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • when $AMGN ‘s scientists tried to replicate 53 prominent studies in basic cancer biology … they were able to confirm the results of only 6 Aug 16, 2012
  • Mobile pay war: Wal-Mart and others vs. Google http://t.co/Q30PZQGP So much innovation in payment systems; wonder which will win? $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Nassim Taleb: Stay Out of the Investment Industry http://t.co/ZyomTwjB Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville r @ work & still making $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Deep ocean lure grows as high-tech drilling pays off http://t.co/P4UP4ZWs The technology for extracting oil grows ever more complex $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • Buyers Beware: The Goodwill Games http://t.co/eA7XEXjr Check the cash from operations. Should exceed earnings if Goodwill is valid. $$ Aug 14, 2012
  • CLEAN UP THE BALANCE SHEET: GET RID OF DEFERRED TAXES http://t.co/DTfT8bRg Future income or losses can’t be assured, so not asset or liab $$ Aug 13, 2012

?

Comments

  • @BarbarianCap The firm I was with sold $AIG the day it went into the Dow. Close to a “top tick.” $HIG , did not do hearly as well 🙁 $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @The_Dumb_Money @pkedrosky is a bright guy. Many got it right, but fads suck people in. Aug 17, 2012
  • RE: @boingboing Not too surprising. Many corporations pay low taxes b/c of govt incentives. Relationship 2 mgmt pay s? http://t.co/KoChJizm Aug 17, 2012
  • @Breakingviews The sooner the euro dissolves, the less will be the pain for all involved. It was a mistake from the start. $$ Aug 17, 2012
  • @pelias01 Many thanks for the many times you have asked people to follow me. I really appreciate it. Aug 17, 2012
  • @JimPethokoukis I’m reading it now; that’s a fair assessment. Beyond that, it reinforces how hard it is to do anything in DC $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • RT @PragCapitalist: Pushing up stock prices does not make underlying assets more profitable. The whole premise of the Bernanke Put is f … Aug 16, 2012
  • @FeeOnlyIndy I try to be fair, I don’t always succeed, and I do have my biases, so take me with a grain of salt, but thanks $$ Aug 16, 2012
  • @izakaminska Whenever I go to Boston, I always take the Water Taxi from the airport. Lets me off in Downtown –beautiful view of the city $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • @munilass Glad u said: “The Fed really ought to be embarrassed that it published something like this.” I didn’t say that & should have $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • @The_Analyst true… too much quantitative talent went to Wall Street, applied the wrong model: physics, rather than right model: ecology $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • My friend Eric Hovde sadly didn’t win the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary; Eric would’ve shaken up DC. Thompson is business as usual $$ Aug 15, 2012
  • “Proppants prop open cracks when hydraulic fracturing is done. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OuqTSMAc Aug 14, 2012
  • ?I wasn’t that impressed w/Inker’s analysis. Does not take into account dollar-weighted returns. $$ http://t.co/C5Gh0pOl Aug 13, 2012
  • @nancefinance I was pretty nerdy, though not withdrawn, back then. My mom was a self-taught investor. I caught the bug from her. $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • When I was a teenager, I remember looking through the bond tables, noting that almost all prices were below 100. Today it is the opposite $$ Aug 13, 2012
  • @japhychron @Peter_Atwater You were more than mostly right, it’s a great book. Only wish it could have been bigger. $$ Aug 12, 2012

?

On Investment Speakers

On Investment Speakers

I’m on the program committee for the Baltimore CFA Society.? We hold around 10-12 programs per year, meeting for lunch at the Centre Club in Downtown Baltimore.? It’s probably the most visible aspect of the society.? Even when I wasn’t on the program committee, I still brought in some speakers: John Neff, Richard Bernstein, and a few others.

But now the new season approaches, and I have to come up with new names.? People in New York City or DC are easy, because they can just take the Metroliner.? A few other notes: the Baltimore society is equity-oriented.? That means that we can do one or two bond-oriented speakers, but not more.

Instead, we have to focus on:

  • strategists
  • well-known equity investors
  • institutional investors with good track records.
  • Clever niche investors/advisors/economists that are well-known.

Now, the Baltimore Society can pay, but it doesn’t have tons of dough.? We shepherd our resources carefully as the second-largest CFA society run internally. (The largest is Denver.)

So, who should I try to attract to speak to the Baltimore CFA Society?? I have some ideas:

  • Ed Meigs, notable and local high yield manager (The High Yield guy I learned from)
  • Joshua Brown, of The Reformed Broker
  • Eddy Elfinbein, of Crossing Wall Street
  • Barry Ritholtz, of The Big Picture
  • Ronald H. Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp fund.
  • Charles Carlson of the Greenspring Fund
  • Robert J. Stevens, CEO of Lockheed Martin
  • James A.C. Kennedy, CEO of T. Rowe Price
  • David M. Zaslav, CEO of Discovery Communications
  • Arne M. Sorenson, CEO of Marriott International
  • W Edward Walter, CEO of Host Hotels and Resorts Inc.
  • Malon Wilkus, CEO of American Capital
  • Alan Wilson, CEO of McCormick & Co.
  • Don Wood, CEO of Federal Realty Investment Trust
  • Kevin?Plank, CEO of Under Armour
  • Tom Giannopoulos, CEO of MICROS Systems

But I am open to other ideas that would prove popular to an equity-oriented audience in Baltimore.? Any ideas for me in the comments? :)? Thanks.

Post 1800

Post 1800

So, what do I write about at the Aleph Blog?? I write about a lot of things.? That’s a strength, and a weakness.? A weakness, because not everyone cares about a lot of things and if I shift to cover an area that is unusual, readers may not care.

It’s a strength, in the same sense that most of the best athletes could do well at a wide number of games.? I follow a wide number of themes in the financial markets and economics.? I like to think that I bring more perspective to a wide umber of issues because:

  • I have been trained in neoclassical economic theory, and I reject it.
  • I have been trained in modern portfolio theory, and I reject it.
  • I’ve worked in most areas of the financial markets, and have seen similar events happen in different markets.
  • I have quantitative skills, but I have spent a lot of time of economic history.
  • Having practiced as an actuary, I have additional skills analyzing liability structures, which are underanalyzed.

My perspective is different.? I don’t expect you to agree with me, because some of my views are “out there,” and I know that when I write it.? I sometimes write things knowing that there is no way that these will be adopted, absent major changes to society.? I write those, knowing that radical change is not impossible, and when change happens, they will need sensible guidelines.

So what have I written about?? From my categories:

Macroeconomics (898)
Stocks (814)
Bonds (770)
Portfolio Management (685)
Value Investing (463)
public policy (384)
Fed Policy (374)
Insurance (356)
Real Estate and Mortgages (354)
Structured Products and Derivatives (340)
Speculation (292)
Quantitative Methods (285)
Personal Finance (218)
Asset Allocation (172)
Book reviews (169)
Currencies (158)
Industry Rotation (133)
Blog News (123)
Ethics (117)
Accounting (113)
Pensions (109)
Banks (103)
General (100)
Academic Finance (82)
Best Articles (44)
Christianity (19)
The Rules (17)
Home Schooling (14)
Tweets (14)

I write about economics, stocks and bonds. That’s me.? I want to describe what is going on and how it affects those holding fixed claims (bonds), and variable claims (stocks).

After that, I write about portfolio management and value investing — how do we manage the assets that we own?

The next group is the guts of the market: how does government and Fed policy affect things?? How do insurance, real estate, and derivatives affect our lives?

Beyond those, I write about many things, and I appreciate that you read me.? Your time is valuable; thanks for reading me.

My Performance

My greatest fear when starting up my firm was that after having a great 10-year run with my own assets (and for an employer), that I would go cold when I started managing assets for others.? That is what has happened, with underperformance of 9%+ versus the S&P 500 over the last 16 months.? This is my worst sustained performance over the last 20 years.

I don’t think my methods are poor, nor am I planning on changing.? Every investment method goes through dry times; I have to live through this.

So what will I do?? I will persist in the strategies that have done so well for me? over the last 20 years.? I will continue to do value investing.

I don’t know that it will work, but I think it will.? Value investing is the reliable weak signal amid a lot of investment noise.

And so I act and invest.? My time is coming, and thanks for reading me.

Yahoo Finance News

Yahoo Finance News

I want to call attention to News at Yahoo Finance.? I have used Yahoo Finance for 15 years and have found it valuable.? As time has gone on, Yahoo has added low value news sources like Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, and Zacks.? These are websites that if I could eliminate them, it would be done already.

News at Yahoo Finance is the best free source of finance news that I know of.? If there is a better source of free finance news, please let me know.

My main gripe with Yahoo Finance is that it allows for considerable customization of the news feed, but excludes certain providers, such as:

  • Bloomberg
  • CNBC
  • CNNMoney.com
  • Financial Times
  • Fortune
  • Fox Business
  • Investor’s Business Daily
  • Morningstar
  • Motley Fool
  • Seeking Alpha
  • The Daily Ticker
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • Wall St. Cheat Sheet
  • Zacks

I have written Yahoo Finance about this issue three times but have not gotten any help from them.? Maybe they get a lot of revenue from those that I don’t want to see.? If that is true, let them tell shareholders about it, and us as well.

The three entities I would like to block occupy 25% of my news feed.? Yahoo, do you think you can allow me to block them?? It makes reading your news feed a lot harder.

PS — yes, it says you can block Motley Fool, and I have unchecked that box, but I still get them.

A Visit from the Governor

A Visit from the Governor

Since coming back to work in Baltimore in 2007, I’ve tried to be more active in the Baltimore CFA Society.? That has taken on a number of different forms:

But now the program season ends with a bang, with Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.? What questions would you ask the Governor of one of the bluest states in the US, one that has the advantage of living next door to the money vortex known as Washington, DC?? It’s not as if there aren’t any problems:

  • We face a significant budget deficit, and the most likely solution is a special session of the legislature that raises taxes, when taxes are already high.
  • The government pension funds are significantly underfunded, and don’t ask about government retiree healthcare…
  • Maryland (outside of Montgomery County, and maybe Howard and Baltimore Counties [note to non-Marylanders, Baltimore City is a county, and is different from Baltimore County which is kind of a ring around Baltimore City.]) isn’t the best place to run a public corporation.? Taxes and regulations are high, and it is not a right-to-work state.

That said, aside from proximity to DC, Maryland has a number of things going for it:

  • An educated workforce
  • The biotechnology industry, aided by the NIH & Johns Hopkins
  • The REIT and Hotel industries have a large presence here

So, if you want to, and can make it, there are a limited number of seats to come and hear Martin O’Malley speak.? Please come.? If you can’t come, and you would have a question for the Governor, list it in the comments below.? I will take the best question, and ask the Governor that.

Following this is the press release for our meeting:

? Center Club

100 Light Street, Baltimore, MD

16th Floor, Harbor Room

 

Press Release

Contact: Niall O?Malley

Phone: (443)600-8050

Email: niall.omalley@bluepointim.us

Registration questions email (link below):? info@baltimorecfasociety.org

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

9 PM ET, April 26, 2012

Maryland Governor Martin O?Malley Speaks to the Baltimore CFA Society: Maryland?s Jobs, Economy, and Innovation

Baltimore, MD, April 26, 2012: ?In a time when the economy is under stress and the economies of many states are depressed, Martin O?Malley, Governor of Maryland, comes to speak to the Baltimore CFA Society at Noon on May 3rd, on Maryland?s Jobs, Economy and Innovation.? The meeting will be at the Center Club in Downtown Baltimore.

 

Though seating is limited, the event is open to the public and registration is available at this web address: Register & Pay.? ?Check-in starts at 11:45 AM.

 

In particular, Governor O’Malley will discuss the role of innovation and entrepreneurship in strengthening Maryland’s economy. Financial services play a key role in Maryland’s economy. How will the Invest MD program build on recent success?

 

Join us for a lively talk and discussion with the current Governor of the great State of Maryland.

 

BALTIMORE CFA SOCIETY

The Baltimore CFA Society was founded in 1948.? Its mission is to facilitate the exchange of ideas, networking and professional development while adhering to a Code of Ethical Standards.? The Baltimore CFA Society has promoted Baltimore and Maryland businesses through the Baltimore Business Review (www.baltimorebusinessreview.org).? The society?s diverse membership represents over 600 financial service professionals from across the State of Maryland.?

 

-End-

Seven Notes

Seven Notes

First, I have some blog news:? my hosting provider made me delete 7000 spammers out of my user database.? That left me with 200+ users.? Inadvertently, in the process, around 70 bona fide users with surnames starting with the letters J-Z got deleted.? So, if you got deleted, and have to re-register, my apologies.? I tried to be careful, but made an error when matching databases.

Second, MetLife should not have to undergo the stress tests that banks do.? Banks borrow short and lend long; they are inherently unstable.? Insurance companies generally match assets and liabilities, and are stable.? The only insurer of consequence to fail in the crisis was AIG, and it was because of derivatives and securities lending issues, areas that other insurance companies do not touch, or handle differently.

Third, why does an institutional investor use an investment bank?

When I was a corporate bond manager, we used everyone.? We wanted access to deals, and if you don’t deal with all of the majors, you are shut out.? Of course every manager deals with Goldman Sachs even if they don’t trust them.? The big guys know this and keep their brokers at arm’s length.

If you are a reporter, that is why managers will not speak on record.? If the syndicate desks on Wall Street don’t like you, they won’t give you good allocations on contested deals.

Bond managers are wise to use Goldman.? They are wiser to realize that Goldman does not act in their interests, and so, be cautious.? And to the degree that you are a smart manager, you can lessen your dependence on the big guys, and work with the hungry second tier, who know that money can be made by implementing the ideas of smart investors, so find ways to buy cheap bonds for smart investors from dumb investors, and sell rich bonds from smart investors to dumb investors.? After all, brokers only make money when assets are bought or sold.

There are few friends on Wall Street.? Big institutions know that, retail investors should learn that.? But the guy who resigned from Goldman should be aware that not all clients were muppets.? Firms I was with would avoid derivatives unless we were the ones structuring them.? If we have control, derivatives are good.? If we don’t have control, derivatives are bad.? Control is good….

You should always be thinking that those who you deal with may not be acting in your interest, and often, it is because of forces beyond their control.? I was pinned with $10MM face of Teleglobe bonds and the main broker dealing in them held (unknown to me at the time) $100MM+ of the bonds.? My efforts to sell the bonds failed because the broker had a larger position, and there was no active market.

Fourth, just because you live in America, it doesn’t mean you should get a high wage.? Particularly for manufacturing wages are declining, and why shouldn’t they decline, because productivity is not rapidly advancing.? It’s like my article on comparable worth.? Most Americans are going to have to get used to being poorer, because there are many others who can do what they do for less.? And, that partly explains the 1% vs 99% argument, because as the rest of the world grows, and the US doesn’t, it has impact on those in the US that earn too much relative to their productivity.

Fifth, imagine for a moment that you are in charge of an organization that is going to play a baseball game against the winners of the World Series.? You can choose any people to be players that have not been employed in MLB for the last five years.? How well do you think you will do?

Duh. You know you are going to lose.? Well, the same thing applies for those that are arguing that the 99% can dominate the 1%.? Short of Soviet tyranny, it won’t work.? The 1%, should it really exist as a stable organization, is too smart, and will beat the 99% nine times out of ten.

We talk a lot about democracy, though our government thwarts it when it can.? Government typically boils down to aristocracy — the rich rule, and it can’t be otherwise, unless we want Communism, like China under Mao.? In the Eurozone, under the “socialism,” the wealthy happily rule.? Only societies that are wiling to destroy wealth are willing to deny power to the wealthy.? And China is a great example here, as the wealthy increasingly dominate their government, to a greater degree than is true in the US.

Money talks, losers walk, and I never give money to politicians; it is all too corrupt.? Just realize that the deck is stacked against you.? Money finds a way to win in the process eventually.

Sixth, California will suffer for making retiree healthcare unchangeable.? Retiree healthcare in its present form is not affordable by almost everyone.? Why destroy your state by making? promises that can’t be upheld?

Seventh, after you read this, explain why you might trust Chinese statistics.? I reminds me of AIG where bad news had a hard time traveling to the top.

 

On News Sources

On News Sources

A reader of mine asks:

I’m interested in the range of stuff you are reading and thinking about.???? Would also be interested in a catalog of what, how, and why for “information sources you get pushed to” you and “information sources you pull/poll” on a daily or weekly basis.

This is a struggle, and it changes over time.? I have a category in my Bookmarks called “startup” which contains:

  • My portfolio tickers at Yahoo Finance, and the news thereof
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • Bloomberg.com
  • And my RSS reader

The last one varies the most but contains:

AAII Stock Investor Pro Data Updates http://feeds.feedburner.com/AAIIStockInvestorProDataUpdates
Abnormal Returns http://abnormalreturns.com/feed/
Alea http://alea.tumblr.com/rss
Bronte Capital http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Bruce Krasting http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Capital Context http://feeds.feedburner.com/CapitalContext
Cato Upcoming Events http://feeds2.feedburner.com/CatoEvents
CFO.com: Today in Finance http://www.cfo.com/rss/cfo_today_in_finance.xml
China Financial Markets http://mpettis.com/feed/
CrossingWallStreet.com http://feeds.feedburner.com/Crossingwallstreet
David Merkel (AlephBlog) on Twitter http://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/120209971.rss
Distressed Debt Investing http://feeds.feedburner.com/DistressedDebtInvesting
DTC Important Notices – Reorganization http://www.dtcc.com/legal/imp_notices/rss/dtc_reo.xml
Economics of Contempt http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
Falkenblog http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss
FeedBulletin for: Alephblog http://feeds.feedburner.com/~u/Alephblog
Financial Adviser http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/feed/
Graham And Doddsville http://feeds.feedburner.com/grahamanddoddsville
HistorySquared http://feeds.feedburner.com/Historysquared
Humble Student of the Markets http://feeds.feedburner.com/HumbleStudentOfTheMarkets
Inner Workings http://blog.atimes.net/?feed=rss2
interfluidity http://www.interfluidity.com/feed
kelpiecapital http://kelpie-capital.com/feed/
Macro Rants http://macrorants.wordpress.com/feed/
Macroeconomic Resilience http://feeds.feedburner.com/MacroeconomicResilience
Market Anthropology http://www.marketanthropology.com/feeds/posts/default
NY Fed | Permanent Open Market Operations http://www.newyorkfed.org/rss/feeds/pomo.xml
Patrick Chovanec http://chovanec.wordpress.com/feed/
Rajiv Sethi http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss
RIABiz http://feeds.feedburner.com/riabiz
self-evident http://feeds.feedburner.com/self-evident
Sober Look http://feeds.feedburner.com/SoberLook
The Accounting Onion http://feeds.feedburner.com/typepad/theaccountingonion
The Aleph Blog http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheAlephBlog
The Cody Word http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/feed/
The Financial Investigator http://www.thefinancialinvestigator.com/?feed=rss2
the research puzzle http://researchpuzzle.com/blog/feed/rss/

There are many other bloggers I like a lot, but I typically run into them through linkfests from the above.? I favor bloggers that tend to post less frequently; I used to have those that post more frequently, but I could not keep up with the flow.

Occasionally Twitter and email will give me ideas, but I try to limit my time on Twitter.? I use Tweetdeck as my main Twitter client, and Buffer as my secondary client, but once I have Tweeted, I turn it off, because it is too much of a distraction.

With email, I am fascinated at the number of parties that think that I might promote their cause.? Because I respect my readers, I am really choosy about:

  • What articles I will point to
  • What infographics I will post (none so far)
  • What types of advertising I will do (and I have turned down a lot of deals)
  • Most things 😉

I will send back comments to the PR folks, and I will often unsubscribe, or ask to be removed.? I am not a media outlet in the traditional sense.? (And why many Atheist organizations think I will publish their cause floors me, but I don’t unsubscribe, I just quote the Bible to them.? Fun! 😉 )

But the truth is, I probably spend too much time in data-gathering / analysis.? I go through cycles where I pare down my sources… I’ve done it probably a dozen times over the last 5-8 years, and then like topsy/kudzu it grows back.? That’s the battle.

But, now you know the basics of my reading lists.? If it helps you, good.? If not, as with all of my posts, I thank you for reading me.? Your time is valuable, and I am very sorry to have wasted your time.? I hope to do better next time, but I understand when people unsubscribe because:

  • Needs change over time, and no one is perpetually relevant
  • I sometimes say controversial things, and offense leads people to leave
  • I occasionally write boring things, and I don’t blame you for leaving — I’m not always Chrysostom (golden-mouthed)
  • There are really good writers out there on investing & finance, and I try to be one, but the competition is very good.? On the bright side, Aleph Blog is still an independent blog of the old school, where one person does it all, and has his own site.

When I was at the recent Investment Research Challenge, a number of the students came up to me and said, “Oh you’re *that* David Merkel.? I read you all the time.”? That was humbling.? I write primarily to give something back.? Yes, I get a little out of advertising and book reviews.? Yes, it gains clients for me indirectly.? But that’s not why I write.

I write because there is so much garbage that average investors are fed, and believe, and my self-appointed job is to fight it.? I tell my kids that there is a loose organization of bloggers that I notionally call “The Good Guys.”? I am one of them, and we are out to expose:

  • Deceptive products
  • Fraudulent stocks
  • General bad ideas in investing
  • Occasionally, bad advisors
  • Crummy but well-known economists
  • Self-serving politicians, and those that aid them
  • And more

Don’t get me wrong, I know I have my own problems, and I accept correction from others.

But that describes how I interact with the Internet, and the vortex of data that it delivers.

Five Years at the Aleph Blog!

Five Years at the Aleph Blog!

When Jim Cramer asked me to write for RealMoney, it was a dream come true, and I didn’t ask for it.? After year of writing him on bond issues, he told me I wrote better than most he knew.? Trouble was, in 2003, I had a new job at a hedge fund, and was doing well at it.? It took some doing, but eventually my boss (a good guy, generally) agreed that I could do it, and my public writing on investing began.

Writing for RealMoney, I always felt a little odd.? As I do at Aleph Blog, it is my goal to help you think better, not shovel “buy this now” ideas at you.? I wrote more comments relative to articles than any other writer; I was told that I was RealMoney’s most profitable writer, because people re-read my articles & comments.? Oddly, I had less feedback from Cramer than when I was an e-mailer.? That said, if I ever e-mailed him, which I did rarely 1-2 times/year, he would always give me a short gracious response.? Long before I actually did so, he encouraged me to start my own asset management shop, when I asked his advice in the matter.

Roughly one year before I left RealMoney (which I did unceremoniously, never said goodbye), I started Aleph Blog.? I did it for greater freedom of expression.? I also never read RealMoney anymore, and as such, did not feel the compulsion to contribute to a publication that I had loved.

I wanted to write more article-length pieces about issues that were deeper to investing, and not simple buy/sell this asset pieces.? So, beginning with the Shanghai Market crisis in February 2007, we were off and running.? Most of my initial pieces were shorter; I would write two per evening, six days a week.? That morphed into one longer piece once an evening.

It was my goal to try to take my generalist experiences and turn them into something valuable for the general public.? I did not want to be an “all crisis, all the time” blog.? When the crisis was hot, or promising to be so, I would write.? And though I have distinct views on how economic policy should be done, that is not what defines me.? We have to act and live in the face of suboptimal policies.

There are many pieces and series that I could never have done at RealMoney that I have done at Aleph Blog.? As a sampler:

  • Education of a Corporate Bond Manager (12 parts)
  • Flavors of Insurance (12 parts)
  • The Rules (30 parts so far, and may go to 60 if I do them all)
  • A Day in the Life of John Davidson (my one attempt at fiction, 8 parts)
  • Most of my articles dealing with flaws in institutional investment strategies, accounting rules, etc.
  • My occasional rants on how I thank neoclassical economics is wrong, and sometimes, very wrong.
  • Articles on accounting rules and the effect on investing.? In some circles, this is (wide eyes here) an accounting blog. (I’ve never taken an accounting course in my life.? I’ve had to create accounting statements for 12-18 years of my life corporately.? I have read through accounting standards, and theories on accounting polices repeatedly.)
  • Many of my quantitative posts they would have blinked at, and said, “Uh, who will benefit from that?”? My view is, you may not get any initial benefit from such a piece, but if you get some idea into how the markets interact, you may be better prepared when things get weird.
  • All of the book reviews. That was not an early goal of the blog, but has become 10% of what I do.
  • The interactions I have had with agencies of the US Government.
  • The (7 part) first blogger summit at the US Treasury.? It was a pleasure to meet Steven Randy Waldman, Yves Smith, Kid Dynamite, Accrued Interest, John Jansen, Michael Panzner, and Tyler Cowen.

That said, RealMoney gave me more room to run than most columnists.? They rarely turned down my ideas, but they did want me to become more “practical,” and crank out more investment ideas.? The hard thing for me was/is, I have no lack of investment ideas/opinions, but the response I get to giving them is far less civil than sharing ideas on how to think about investing.? To that end, I appreciate Tom Brakke, who does that in a very structured way.? We had tea together last June or so, and I started to write about it but could never get it out.

In late summer of last year, Josh Brown came through the area, and we had lunch together.? Great guy; a ton of fun and ideas.? A man like him in some ways is my pal Cody Willard, who is a fountain of ideas and connections.? Add in James Altucher, who is prolific, and has been willing to give me time on two occasions.

Last fall I had a late dinner with Miguel Barbosa of Simoleon Sense.? Very bright guy; great conversation.? During the same trip to Chicago, got to talk with Eric Falkenstein for a few hours.? Wish I could have met up with Tadas Viskanta then; maybe another time.

Yet that reminds me of those I interact with.? Though I have never physically met them, I appreciate Barry Ritholtz, Jeff Miller, Felix Salmon, Bruce Krasting, Howard Simons, Roger Nusbaum, Gonzalo Lira, Michael Pettis, Victor Shih, Carl Walter, jck at Alea, the crew at FT Alphaville, and more.

There was the Aleph Blog lunch in late 2010, and the relationships that engendered.? I am very grateful for all of the relationships that blogging has created for me, whether close or distant.

And, with all of the virtuality of blogging, the relationships are what make it for me.? I am happy to write bits on the sites of others, and give them content.? I appreciate those that I read and comment on.

And to the many who have written me, though I may have never responded, thanks for writing me.? I get fifty+ messages per day and can’t keep up.? So, thanks to all have interacted with me, that’s what has made it valuable to me.

PS — If I forgot you, my apologies, I have so many interactions that it is difficult to keep track of them all.

 

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